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2011 College Football Program Power Rankings

Ohio State quarterback Terrelle Pryor hands off the ball to tailback Dane Sanzenbacher in the third quarter at the Louisiana Superdome in New Orleans during the 77th Annual Allstate Sugar Bowl January 4, 2011. The Buckeyes won 31-26 UPI/Dave Fornell

Almost a year ago we decided to try to quantify the stature of college football programs so that we could rank them against one another. (Click here for the 2010 Rankings.) Then our football guru, Anthony Stalter, wrote a little bit about each program and the direction that it’s headed.

Here’s how the total points are determined — 20 points for a national championship, 10 for a BCS title game loss, seven for a BCS bowl win, five for a BCS bowl loss, five for a BCS conference championship, three for a mid-major conference championship, two for a BCS conference runner-up and one for a major bowl appearance (i.e. a bowl that has a recent payout of more than $2 million, so for 2011 that would be Capital One, Outback, Chick-fil-A, Cotton, Gator, Insight, Holiday, Champs Sports and Alamo.) You’ll see the total points in parenthesis after the team’s name.

We put some thought into the point values for each accomplishment, paying special attention to how the point values are relative to one another. For example, we figured that one national championship would equate to four BCS conference championships, or three BCS bowl wins. We only looked at the last five years, as college football has increasingly become a fluid and fickle sport, and that’s about how far back a recruit will go when deciding amongst a list of schools.

Lastly, since a program is so dependent on the guy in charge, we added or subtracted points if the program saw an upgrade or downgrade at the head coach position in the last five years. A max of 10 points would be granted (or docked) based on the level of upgrade or downgrade. Again, we tried to quantify the hire relative to the program’s other accomplishments. For example, hiring Nick Saban is probably worth two BCS bowl appearances, or 10 points. (Sure, he might lead Alabama to more, but he also might bolt for another job in a year or two.)

So, without further ado, here are the rankings. Every year we’ll go through and update the numbers based on what the program did that year (while throwing out the oldest year of data), so don’t fret if your team isn’t quite where you want them right now. Everyone has a chance to move up.

1. Ohio State (58)

Previous Rank: #2 (+1)
Some college football fans will take issue with the Buckeyes being No. 1 because of their “soft schedule.” But this is a team that has dominated its conference five of the past six years and has finished no worse than second in each of the past six seasons. They’ve also appeared in two title games (though they lost both) and nine straight BCS bowl games, winning the Rose Bowl and Sugar Bowl in the past two years. They’ve got an interesting season coming up though. Five of their players including quarterback Terrelle Pryor, running back Dan Herron and receiver DeVier Posey will miss the first five games next year after being suspended. Can the Buckeyes stay unscathed until those players return?

2. Florida (51)

Previous Rank: #1 (-1)
If it weren’t for Urban Meyer leaving the program (and their lousy 2010 season), the Gators would probably still be ranked No. 1. They have three conference championships and two national championships in two years, but the lose of Meyer hurts big-time in these rankings. But don’t fret Florida fans, if Will Muschamp gets the program back on the right track then the Gators won’t be at No. 2 for long.

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National title picture could change today … Or stay exactly the same

Boise State Broncos quarterback Kellen Moore (11) (R) fakes a handoff in their NCAA football game against the Virginia Tech Hokies in Landover, Maryland, September 6, 2010.  REUTERS/Jonathan Ernst (UNITED STATES - Tags: SPORT FOOTBALL)

By the end of the day today, we could have a whole new look at the national title picture. Then again, you could say that any week in college football.

This time, however, there’s actually a chance that things could get jumbled up. The top team in the country, Alabama, is facing by far its stiffest test of the season as it travels to Fayetteville to take on Ryan Mallett and Arkansas. No. 3 Boise State will play in its second — and probably last — “showcase” game of the year when it plays host to Oregon State.

We know that if Boise State loses, a lot of the debate about who deserves what will go away, at least until we have to sort through a handful of one-loss teams at the end of the season (but we’ll save that for later). If the Tide lose and the Broncos win, is Boise all of the sudden in the driver’s seat for a spot in the title game? Probably not, actually.

It’s a big slate today, so find a spot on the couch by the mid-afternoon games and settle in for some good football. Read the rest of this entry »

Temple delivers another blow to the lowly Big East

CHAPEL HILL, NC - OCTOBER 4:  Head coach Randy Edsall of the Connecticut Huskies looks on during the game against the North Carolina Tar Heels at Kenan Stadium on October 4, 2008 in Chapel Hill, North Carolina.  (Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images)

Temple and UConn played during the day today, but the game definitely continued some dark days for the state of Big East football.

The Owls, who a little more than a week ago could be seen trading costly gaffes and fumbles with MAC foe Central Michigan, defeated UConn 30-16. It’s another huge blow for the Big East, which has already had sub-standard results this season.

UConn was thought by some national media types to be the favorite in the Big East, but after this loss and the Week 1 drubbing at the hands of Denard Robinson and Michigan, the Huskies definitely don’t look like a team that should finish on top of any BCS conference. Cincinnati, the defending Big East champion, has looked about as pathetic — minus the loss to a MAC team, that is — losing to Fresno State and NC State. With Oklahoma coming up next week, the Bearcats, who were unbeaten in the regular season a year ago, are staring 1-3 straight in the face.

West Virginia appears to be the most competent team in the conference, but even the Mountaineers needed overtime to beat Marshall. They do have a chance to earn the conference some respect, however, next week at LSU. With Les Miles coaching, who knows what could happen there, but if I had to put money on it now, I’d go with the Tigers.

With the emergence of non-automatic qualifying conferences, namely the Mountain West, you’d think the Big East would need to start proving itself to keep its spot among the six power conferences. Sadly, money probably won’t allow them to fall out of that, or let the MWC move up, even though it’s looking more and more superior to the Big LEast with each passing week.

Writers Q&A: The Final Four questions

I’m going to pretend I work for ESPN and answer the questions that the Worldwide Leader asked its college basketball writers.

What are you most looking forward to Saturday?

Seeing just what kind of crowd Butler is able to draw and whether or not it helps Bulldogs beat Michigan State. Final Four crowds are notoriously corporate and laid back, so if the Butler faithful (and the newly converted) can create some real home court atmosphere, it will make things tough for Michigan State. I’ll also be watching how the Bulldogs handle playing in a dome; they’re used to playing in smaller gyms and fieldhouses in the Horizon League.

At the end of the day, whose performance will we be talking about?

There are a long list of possibilities, but Nolan Smith is playing excellent basketball of late. He’s the only Duke guard that will be able to get into the lane and create his own shot, and his floater will be very useful against West Virginia’s zone. And for all of the talk of Jon Scheyer’s “clutch-ness,” Smith isn’t afraid to take the big shot either.

Butler-Michigan State: Who wins and why?

Despite the Spartans’ experience, I think the Bulldogs win a tight one. They’ve already beat two teams (Syracuse, K-State) that are better than Michigan State, so they appear to be the better team. The question is — can they put all the distractions and the sheer magnitude of the game behind them and just play ball? I think they can.

Duke-West Virginia: Who wins and why?

I have a feeling this game will be nip-and-tuck the entire way with the Blue Devils pulling away at the end with a big three and excellent free throw shooting. Even though it was a 2-3, Baylor’s zone will get Duke ready to face the Mountaineers’ 1-3-1. I don’t expect West Virginia to continue to shoot the three like they did against Kentucky — Duke is excellent at guarding the arc.

Be sure to check back around tip-off — I’ll be tweeting during both games.

Don’t expect a high-scoring Final Four

With Kansas, Kentucky and Syracuse out of the picture, some are grumbling about the lack of big-name teams at the Final Four. By the time the final buzzer sounds on Monday night, it’s entirely possible that those same detractors will call the games “boring” or “ugly.”

Here’s why:

1. Pace
There are 347 teams in the D1 ranks and of the four teams set to play Saturday, Michigan State (#215) plays at the fastest pace. The other three teams — Duke (#232), Butler (#285) and West Virginia (#306) — are all in the bottom third in the number of possessions used per game. All four teams are in the top 50 in offensive efficiency (points per possession), so there should be some scoring, but don’t expect any high-octane, up-and-down affairs.

2. Defense
Duke (#3 in defensive efficiency), Butler (#6) and West Virginia (#10) are elite defensive teams, and Michigan State (#33) isn’t bad, either. All four teams hold their opponents to less than 41.5% from the field and 33.1% from long range. Duke and Butler play great positional defense and always seem to have a help defender in the right spot. Michigan State and West Virginia use superior athleticism to smother opponents. The Mountaineers will even utilize a tough-to-attack 1-3-1 zone.

These teams are evenly matched and low-pace, low-scoring affairs lend themselves to close games. This should result in exciting basketball, but we’re not going to see anything like 2009, when all four teams were in the top 130 in overall pace.


Photo from fOTOGLIF

Wednesday Final Four Commentary

Andy Glockner, SI.com: Tom Izzo is the best college basketball coach in America. Relax, North Carolina and Duke fans. No one’s slighting your leading men or their career accomplishments. We’re talking about right now, this very moment, two days after Izzo pulled off the near-impossible and made Michigan State’s three-year turn-of-last-decade run now look more like the rule rather than the exception. Think last season’s dramatic push to the national title game in Detroit with a youthful roster was stirring? This year’s Spartans have overcome a leadership void, player-coach discontent and a back-stiffening gym-floor sleepover in addition to the late rash of injuries. Their quartet of NCAA tournament wins are highlighted by a crucial lane violation, a buzzer-beating three and the country’s largest temporary (and most loquacious) point guard dropping a delicious dime that helped beat Tennessee. And let’s be honest: On the list of legendary college basketball settings, how long after Westwood, Lawrence, Chapel Hill and Durham would it take to finally get to East Lansing? Izzo doesn’t get enough credit for the level of talent he brings in, considering he’s selling kids on winters in central Michigan. Meanwhile, Roy Williams’ office phone has a golden arches insignia on it.

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Early-week Final Four commentary

Rick Reilly, ESPN.com: There’s no point in going over all the reasons Huggins is bad for basketball. That’s just kicking a man when he’s up. And boy, is Huggs up. Eighteen years after his last Final Four, eight years after his heart attack in the Pittsburgh airport, six years after his DUI, five years after choosing to “resign” over “be fired” at Cincinnati (where he had four years of 0.0 graduation rate), three years after pulling a one-and-done at Kansas State and leaving them with a crazy-eyed, death-staring Huggins wannabe named Frank Martin, the world is cuddling The Huggy Bear again. “The first time I heard he was coming,” remembers West Virginia’s best player, Da’Sean Butler, “I was like, ‘I’m getting ready to go to Michigan.’ But I’m glad I didn’t leave. It’s been great. I’d be doing all kind of nothing right now.”

John Feinstein, Washington Post: There may not be such a thing as a perfect Final Four, but the one that will begin on Saturday in Indianapolis comes pretty close. It has a Cinderella practically playing on its home court. It has a team that hasn’t been to the Final Four in 51 years but is going back after a prodigal son came home. It has a team whose coach always seems to find a way this time of year, playing in its sixth Final Four in 12 seasons. And it has a villain, the team people love to hate, whether because it wins so often or because people have to have someone to root against once their team has gone home.

Bob Kravitz, Indianapolis Star: History and common sense tell you a school with an enrollment of 4,200 students, a mid-major affiliation and, most important, mid-major revenues, shouldn’t be able to stare down the likes of No. 1 seed Syracuse and No. 2 seed Kansas State. The coaches and players, though, weren’t satisfied with being this cute little underdog story who upsets one or two teams and reaches the Sweet Sixteen every few years… How many times have they been told this year they were too small and too, ahem, un-athletic (which, let’s be honest, is code for “too white”)? Here’s what we saw all tournament, and especially Saturday against massive Kansas State: Butler outrebounded the Wildcats by 12. Twelve… The “Hoosiers” comparisons began again after the game, when players and Stevens were asked how often they’d seen the movie. (There are some parallels: Two small schools. Two teams who built up to the moment; recall how good Milan was the year before the Milan Miracle. The shocking resemblance between Gordon Hayward and Jimmy Chitwood. Fine. I mean, it’s unavoidable, right?)

Michael Rosenberg, Detroit Free Press: Unless Durrell Summers or Kalin Lucas pulls a surprise and leaves for the NBA, MSU should be the preseason No. 1 team in the country next fall. The Spartans will lose Raymar Morgan but bring back everybody else in the rotation and a highly regarded freshman class. What does that have to do with this year’s Final Four? Maybe nothing. But sometimes a surprise national champion is simply a team that peaks before we expect it. In 1991, Duke was a surprise national champion … but the Blue Devils dominated college basketball the next year and won a second title. In 1992, Michigan was a surprise national runner-up … but the next year, the Wolverines earned a No. 1 seed and made the title game again. In 1997, Arizona was a surprise national champion … but the Wildcats were probably the best team in the country the next year, before losing in the Elite Eight. In 2006, Florida was a surprise national champion … but the next year, the Gators were the best team in the country and won another title.

Thomas George, FanHouse: [Coach K's] trio of seniors — forward Lance Thomas, center Brian Zoubek and guard Jon Scheyer (left to right, photo right) — took the old-school route to Final Four glory. There was nothing microwave about their journey. They went 22-11 as freshmen, 28-6 as sophomores and 30-7 last year. Yet, no Final Fours. They were labeled underachievers. They lacked Duke blue and royal blood. A sham. A bunch of louses. But this trio never stopped fighting, believing, working. Old-school values, sure, but the difference when you’re “not that good.” The Duke assistant coaches will tell you that Scheyer, Thomas and Zoubek did not spend a second griping and moping and doing the things that kill a team, that kill a program. That this trio is the team’s rock. And they have been that for each other. When it was over, after they had popped Baylor 78-71 in front of a Baylor-friendly crowd of 47,492, Zoubek said the seniors just looked at each other. No words needed.


Photo from fOTOGLIF

Final Four Preview

Keep the faith, people.

I know my official bracket looked rough there for a while, with a spotty performance in the first round and the loss of my overall winner (Kansas) in the second. But with Syracuse, Ohio State and Kansas State losing, along with West Virginia’s win over Kentucky and Duke’s tight win over Baylor, I ended up with two Final Four teams in a year when almost no one will have three or more. That means that if you followed my picks, you’re probably sitting somewhere near the top of your pool. (Anthony Stalter didn’t look at his bracket after Kansas lost and just discovered that he’s in fourth place out of 54 entries and has a shot at second place.)

Anyway, even though I’m a Duke fan, I picked the Mountaineers over the Blue Devils at the beginning of the tournament, and now I’m regretting it a little. But I don’t want to get ahead of myself. Let’s take a closer look at each game and try to predict what’s going to happen on Saturday night.

MICHIGAN ST. vs. BUTLER

By now everyone knows that Butler will be playing just a few miles away from campus. The pundits are suggesting that the Bulldogs will have a big homecourt advantage, but I’m not for sure. The Final Four crowd is largely made up of corporate types that are both neutral and non-vocal, so unless the Butler contingent can somehow get a hold of these tickets, I don’t think there will be much of an advantage. However, if Butler wins on Saturday, its fans could buy up all the tickets from the losing teams. This, coupled with a villain in the title game (Duke) could create more atmosphere. Still, it’s not like we’re talking about Indiana or Purdue — I just don’t know that the Butler fan base is that broad.

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College Football Program Power Rankings

Welcome to a new feature on The Scores Report. We thought it would be interesting to tally up all the major accomplishments of a college football program and assign a point value to each category in order to rank them against one another. Then our football guru, Anthony Stalter, wrote a little bit about each program and the direction that it’s headed.

Here’s how the points are calculated — 20 points for a national championship, 10 for a BCS title game loss, seven for a BCS bowl win, five for a BCS bowl loss, five for a BCS conference championship, three for a mid-major conference championship, two for a BCS conference runner-up and one for a major bowl appearance (i.e. a bowl that has a recent payout of more than $2 million — Capital One, Outback, Chick-fil-A, Cotton, Gator, Holiday, Champs Sports and Alamo.) You’ll see the total points in parenthesis after the team’s name.

We put some thought into the point values for each accomplishment, paying special attention to how the point values are relative to one another. For example, we figured that one national championship would equate to four BCS conference championships, or three BCS bowl wins. We only looked at the last five years, as college football has increasingly become a fluid and fickle sport, and that’s about how far back a recruit will go when deciding amongst a list of schools.

Lastly, since a program is so dependent on the guy in charge, we added or subtracted points if the program upgraded or downgraded its head coach in the last five years. A max of 10 points would be granted (or docked) based on the level of upgrade or downgrade. Again, we tried to quantify the hire relative to the program’s other accomplishments. For example, hiring Nick Saban is probably worth two BCS bowl appearances, or 10 points. (Sure, he might lead Alabama to more, but he also might bolt for another job in a year or two.)

So, without further ado, here are the rankings. Every year we’ll go through and update the numbers based on what the program did that year (while throwing out the oldest year of data), so don’t fret if your team isn’t quite where you want them right now. Everyone has a chance to move up.

1. Florida Gators (61)

National Championship: ’08-W, ’06-W
BCS Bowl: ’09-W
Conference Championship: ’09-RU, ’08-W, ’06-W
Major Bowl Appearance: ’07, ’05

It’s hard to argue that the Gators don’t deserve the top spot with two national championship victories, three BCS bowl wins, two conference championships and five bowl appearances in the past five years. Considering they play in college football’s toughest conference, what Urban Meyer’s program has been able to accomplish in the past five years has been incredibly impressive. The program dodged a bullet when Meyer rejoined the team.

2. Ohio State Buckeyes (58)

National Championship: ’07-L, ’06-RU
BCS Bowl: ’09-W, ’08-L, ’05-W
Conference Championship: ’09-W, ’08-RU, ’07-W, ’06-W, ’05-RU

The Buckeyes are subjected to criticism every year because they play in a weak conference that doesn’t have a title game, but keep in mind that they have absolutely owned the Big Ten over the past five years. They have finished no worse than second in each of the past five seasons and have also appeared in two title games. While it’s true they lost in both of those appearances, just getting there helped them greatly in these rankings.

3. Texas Longhorns (49)

National Championship: ’09-L, ’05-W
BCS Bowl: ’08-W,
Conference Championship: ’09-W, ’05-W
Major Bowl Appearance: ’07, ’06

The Longhorns have been a model of consistency. They’ve made a bowl appearance in each of the last five years, won a national championship in 2005 and made a title appearance this past last year. It’ll be interesting to see how Mack Brown’s program fares in 2010 now that Colt McCoy has graduated and youngster Garrett Gilbert is set to take over at quarterback.

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#5 Villanova beats #4 West Virginia

The Wildcats upended the Mountaineers, 82-75, in Morgantown behind 21 points from Scottie Reynolds and 17 points from Corey Fisher.

In Reynolds, Fisher and Reggie Redding, Villanova certainly has the guard play to make a deep run come March, but they lack the size inside to handle the likes of Kansas’s Cole Aldrich or Kentucky’s DeMarcus Cousins. I think ‘Nova will run into trouble in a matchup with Kansas and Kentucky because both teams have good guard play and the requisite size down low.

The Mountaineers look like another Bobby Huggins-coached team. They’re physical and play good defense, but can go through long stretches where they have trouble scoring.

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