The Washington Wizards were the big winners tonight, as they bucked the odds and won the 2010 NBA Draft Lottery. The Wizards had a 10.3% chance of winning the top pick and leapfrogged four teams for the right to draft John Wall.
And Wall will very likely be their pick. This is the perfect opportunity for the franchise to truly start over after the mess that Gilbert Arenas made last season. Look for the Wizards to try to trade Arenas this summer, though it will be tough to find a taker.
The Wizards were represented by Irene Pollin, the widow of the Wizards former owner Abe Pollin, who died late last year.
The Sixers also leapfrogged four teams to win the #2 overall pick. I’d expect Evan Turner would be the pick there, which means that Andre Iguodala could be available this summer. The Sixers will also take a long look at Derrick Favors and DeMarcus Cousins as talented big men don’t come along that often.
The big loser? I’d have to go with the Nets and new owner Mikhail Prokhorov, who looked like his head was about to explode when he learned that his team was going to pick #3. I’d expect New Jersey to take whomever is available between Turner and Favors to play alongside Brook Lopez and Devin Harris.
The NBA Draft Lottery is tonight, and as always, there is a lot riding on a few ping pong balls. Here is a list of the lottery teams (with their chances of winning the top pick in parenthesis) along with some discussion of their possible strategy if they do win the #1 pick.
ALMOST A SURE THING
Nets (25%)
The Wall-to-New Jersey/Brooklyn rumors have been strong all season, thanks to the Nets’ woeful record and Devin Harris’s struggles. Harris is now viewed as expendable, which means Wall would be a Net if the balls bounce their way tonight.
Wizards (10.3%)
Winning the right to draft Wall would allow the Wizards to cut ties with Gilbert Arenas and the franchise’s gun-toting past. It might also convince a free agent or two to sign for the chance to play with Wall.
76ers (5.3%)
Jrue Holiday is nice, but he’s not going to dissuade the Sixers from drafting a franchise-savior like Wall.
Pistons (5.2%)
See 76ers above but substitute “Rodney Stuckey” for “Jrue Holiday.” That is all.
Pacers (1.1%)
Indiana arguably needs a point guard more than any other team in the lottery, but with just a 1.1% chance of winning, they’re hoping against hope.
Grizzlies (0.7%)
Memphis would be buzzing with the arrival of Wall, who would seemingly be a great fit with O.J. Mayo, a re-signed Rudy Gay, Zach Randolph and Marc Gasol. Memphis would likely make the playoffs next season.
Raptors (0.6%)
The chances are very slim, but winning the right to draft Wall would offset the likely loss of Chris Bosh this summer. Neither Jarrett Jack nor Jose Calderon would be enough to convince the Raptors to draft Evan Turner.
Truth About It has video from the Wizards-Nets game — yeah, nobody else was watching it — in which Andray Blatche was thisclose to a triple-double. All he needed was one more rebound. Hilarity ensues.
(Blatche is the Wizard with the headband. Watch his reaction as he tries to get his 10th rebound.)
The Washington Wizards are 3-1 since trading Antawn Jamison to Cleveland. They beat Minnesota, Denver and Chicago at home and lost to Toronto by five on the road.
How are the Wizards pulling this off without four (Gilbert Arenas, Caron Butler, Antawn Jamison, Brendan Haywood) of their best players?
First, Andray Blatche is playing like an All-Star. In the last four games, he has averaged a healthy 25-10, and is shooting 59% from the field. Is he likely to keep this up? No, but 18-8 is certainly possible.
Al Thornton is averaging 16-4 (and shooting 53%) in three games since coming over to the Wizards as part of the Jamison trade. Those numbers seem reasonable if he starts getting starter’s minutes with Josh Howard sidelined.
Two guys that came over last summer — Randy Foye and Mike Miller — have each come up with big games during this four-game span. Miller drained all five of this threes in a 17-point effort against the Timberwolves and Foye is averaging 15 points and 7.5 assists in the last two games. In the one game where neither player cracked double figures (vs. DEN), the now-injured Howard posted 20 points on 8-11 shooting from the field. Miller has been one of the most efficient shooting guards this season, while Foye has been either feast (14p, 5a, 44% shooting as a starter) or famine (6p, 1a, 39% shooting as a reserve), depending on whether or not he’s in the starting lineup.
Truthfully, the Wizards are probably just sneaking up on a few teams. The Nuggets were coming off a big road win against Cleveland the night before and were outscored 34-15 in the fourth quarter by the well-rested Wizards. The Raptors were also coming off a road game the night before. (Granted, it was against the Nets, but still.) Chicago? Well, they don’t have an excuse.
The Wizards upcoming schedule should be telling. Now that they’ve bit a few teams in the butt, it shouldn’t be difficult for Memphis, New York, New Jersey and Milwaukee (twice) to get up for this new-look Washington team.
Are they going to make the playoffs? Hell no. But they might spoil a few other postseason runs.
Josh Howard done for the season with torn ACL Flip says.
It looks like Howard has played his last game as a Wizard. Washington has a team option for another year ($11.8 million), but they’re not likely to exercise it. Without his salary on the books, the franchise can sign a max free agent this summer.
Utah and Miami have recruited Wiz to be 3rd team in Boozer talks. Wash would get cap relief out of it. Beasley not involved, source says.
Michael Beasley wouldn’t seem like a good fit with Jerry Sloan, so it makes sense that Wojnarowski is saying that he’s not involved. But who would the Jazz get in this deal? Udonis Haslem? Jermaine O’Neal? Josh Howard? Al Thornton? Mike Miller?
I’ve always thought that Miller was destined to play in Utah, but would he be worth giving up Boozer and the team’s shot at a playoff run this year? Maybe the Jazz would go for Miller and one of the Heat’s first round picks.
Wojnarowski says that Washington will get salary cap relief out of it, but they only have one bad contract (Gilbert Arenas) on the books for next season, so he must be talking about relief this season. How about this trade which would send Miller and Dorrell Wright (and one of Miami’s first round picks) to Utah, Udonis Haslem to Washington (trimming $2.8 million from this year’s payroll) and Boozer to Miami?
Cavs get Jamison and Telfair, Clippers get Drew Gooden and Wash gets Illgauskas, Al Thornton and Brian Skinner and Cavs 1st round pick.
So the Cavs essentially landed Jamison at the cost of Ilgauskas, taking on Telfair’s contract ($2.7 million next season), and their first round pick, which will be very late in the first round. This is an even sweeter deal than the Hickson/Z-for-Jamison swap that has been rumored for weeks. The proposed Amare Stoudemire deal with the Suns either 1) fell through because the Suns wouldn’t pull the trigger quickly enough, or 2) the Wizards willingness to take a pick instead of Hickson convinced the Cavs to trade for Jamison instead. Either way, the Cavs got a good player in the deal. He’s 33 and has a bad contract (2 yrs, $28.4 million), but he’s playing at a high level (21-9, 45% shooting) and gives the Cavs the “stretch 4″ they’ve been coveting for months. He’ll be a nice matchup for both Rashard Lewis and Kevin Garnett because he’s comfortable playing defense on the perimeter.
The Suns were holding out for a better offer, but now the only suitor left standing appears to be the Heat. It’s going to be interesting to see if Stoudemire is moved before the deadline tomorrow. The team has reportedly told Stoudemire to suit up to play tonight, so no deal is imminent.
The Clippers will save $5.5 million on their 2010-11 payroll, so they’ll project to have more than $16 million* in cap space this summer (or enough to sign a big-name free agent). They are now legit threats to sign a star like Joe Johnson, who would look very nice in a lineup of Baron Davis, Eric Gordon, Blake Griffin and Chris Kaman. I can’t believe I’m saying this, but it’s a savvy move by GM Mike Dunleavy.
And finally, the Wizards will trim $10.6 million from next year’s payroll, giving the team around $9 million* in cap space (with Gilbert Arenas’s deal still on the books). They also get Al Thornton, who has struggled thus far in his career. While he did average almost 17 points last season, his PER has never risen above 13.00, which means he’s not a very efficient player. GM Ernie Grunfeld continues to make perplexing trades. He has moved Caron Butler and Jamison and all he has to show for it are a couple of borderline starters (Josh Howard and Thornton), a late first round draft pick and some cap space.
* assuming a salary cap of $50 million
I’ve been told that the Cavaliers aren’t the only team interested in Jamison. Miami has also expressed interest of late, according to a league source.
When I played basketball for Bo Ryan at the University of Wisconsin-Platteville, there was a player there who always was scrunching up his face when he was upset. Bo would ask him why he looked like he just ate a sour pickle. Why did I just tell you that? Well, when I heard this rumor, I made the “pickle face.”
Even with Dwyane Wade’s player option on the books, the Heat will have $20 million in cap space this summer. Without it, they’ll have $37 million to spend. Why in the world would they invest almost $29 million over the next two years in a 33-year-old power forward?
If a potential deal included Michael Beasley and Daequan Cook, the net increase in payroll would be around $6.3 million, effectively reducing the Heat’s cap space to around $31 million, which would theoretically be enough to re-sign Wade and another superstar free agent. The Heat would then build around Wade, Jamison and the superstar in question (LeBron, Bosh, Stoudemire). Under these circumstances, it would seem that the Heat would simply rather have Jamison than Beasley, thinking that Jamison at 35 would still be better than Beasley at 23.
The teams agreed on the principal pieces Friday: Butler, Haywood and DeShawn Stevenson to Dallas for Josh Howard and Drew Gooden. Mavericks reserves Quinton Ross and James Singleton were added to the deal Saturday and are also Washington-bound, with Dallas due to receive cash considerations in addition to the three players.
To me, if the Wizards are rebuilding, why trade Butler for Howard? He’s 29 — the same age as Butler — and hasn’t been the player this year as he has in years past. He has a team option for next season, so presumably they’d let him walk, because if you can’t build around Butler then you certainly can’t build around Howard.
The right way to start a rebuilding process is to get some good young talent or first round draft picks when trading away stars. Otherwise, it’s just a salary dump. This deal might be appealing to the Wizards because they can try to sell their season ticket holders on the fact that, talent-wise, the trade was pretty even. But really, they’re just treading water, if that.
From a talent stanpdoint, this looks like a great trade for the Mavs. Butler is a significant upgrade over Howard, who has struggled this season. Haywood also gives the Mavs a defensive center who can give Dallas some toughness inside now that Erick Dampier is dealing with some soreness in his knee. Butler’s salary for next season ($10.6 M) is pretty reasonable given what he brings to the table.
On the flip side, Wizards’ GM Ernie Grunfeld continues to perplex me. When he was running the Bucks, he was the mastermind behind the disastrous Ray Allen-for-Gary Payton swap, and in the last two years, he signed Gilbert Arenas to an outlandish contract (for a guy coming off of knee surgery) and now, in an effort to “rebuild,” he’s trading away a very good 29-year-old small forward for a decent 29-year-old small forward.
The trade does bring salary cap relief but that’s about it. Butler and Stevenson were due to make $14.6 million combined next season, and the Wizards are potentially going to take on the $1.1 million still owed to Quinton Ross if he exercises his player option for next year. So, by trimming a net of $13.5 million from their 2010-11 payroll, the Wizards will have about $10 million in cap space this summer, assuming they don’t exercise the team option on Howard’s contract.
In other words, this is a salary dump, plain and simple. I’d be shocked if this trade isn’t a precursor to an Antawn Jamison in the next few days. What’s the point of trading Butler if you aren’t going to move Jamison too?
Talks between the teams had stalled in the past week, partly because of Washington’s insistence that the Mavericks take guard DeShawn Stevenson in any Butler deal, but the potential for acquiring two front-line players — since Butler and Haywood would immediately become key rotation players for the Mavs — has renewed Dallas’ interest.
Sources told ESPN.com that the teams’ negotiations only turned more serious Friday on a deal that would send Josh Howard, Drew Gooden and some smaller cap-friendly contracts to Washington for Butler, Haywood and Stevenson.
To me, if the Wizards are rebuilding, why trade Butler for Howard? He’s 29 — the same age as Butler — and hasn’t been the player this year as he has in years past. He has a team option for next season, so presumably they’d let him walk, because if you can’t build around Butler then you certainly can’t build around Howard.
The right way to start a rebuilding process is to get some good young talent or first round draft picks when trading away stars. Otherwise, it’s just a salary dump. This deal might be appealing to the Wizards because they can try to sell their season ticket holders on the fact that, talent-wise, the trade was pretty even. But really, they’re just treading water, if that.
