2009 College Football Picks & Predictions: Week 5

No. 4 LSU at No. 18 Georgia, 3:30PM ET
Last year, Georgia rolled into Tiger Stadium and laid a 52-38 beat down on LSU as they forced three turnovers and running back Knowshon Moreno (now a Denver Bronco) racked up 163 yards on 21 carries. After an ugly 24-10 loss to Oklahoma State in the opening week of the season, the Bulldogs have rattled off three straight wins and will now face a Tiger team that struggled a bit offensively last week in a narrow 30-26 win over Mississippi State. LSU was outgained 374-263 and only rushed for 30 yards in the victory. The Tigers usually feast on pro-style offenses, so UGA quarterback Joe Cox can’t force throws in attempt to make something happen down field. That said, the Tigers haven’t been tested yet and needed a goal line stand to pull off the win last week. Georgia, on the other hand, has already faced a ranked OK State team and beaten competitive SEC foes South Carolina and Arkansas. The Bulldogs are more battle tested and will overcome a stiff Tiger defense.
Odds: Georgia –3.
Prediction: Georgia 24, LSU 20.

No. 7 USC at No. 24 California, 8:00PM ET
Don’t everyone break your legs jumping off the Cal bandwagon after Oregon smacked the Golden Bears 42-3 last week. Heisman candidate Jahvid Best rushed for only 55 yards in the loss and will face another tough challenge this week against a USC defense that held him to only 30 yards last season. The Trojans have the sixth best defense in the nation and the fifth best scoring defense. They have limited opponents to only 59.5 rushing yards per game and only 95 YPC threw the air. That said, Cal has played USC close over the years and the Trojans have kept things rather conservative offensively with freshman Matt Barkley under center. I see this game being close, although I don’t know if Kevin Riley can beat USC through the air if the Trojans’ front seven takes away Best.
Odds: USC –4.5.
Prediction: USC 20, Cal 17.

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Shocker: USC loses to an inferior opponent

To use a tried, true and albeit, tired phrase, there are three things we can count on in life: Death, taxes and Pete Carroll’s USC Trojans will be knocked off by an inferior opponent at some point during the season.

In 2006, the Oregon State Beavers were the unranked team to knock off USC. In 2007, it was Jim Harbaugh’s Stanford Tree Logos. Last year, it was Oregon State again who provided the upset and on Saturday, it was Steve Sarkisian’s Washington Huskies (a team that didn’t win a game last year, mind you) that shocked the college football world by beating USC 16-13 in Seattle.

For the second year in a row, USC beat Ohio State and then lost to its very next opponent. The Trojans jumped out to a 10-0 lead against the Huskies, but Washington answered with 10 of their own before halftime before eventually pulling the upset off thanks to Erik Folk’s game-winning 22-yard field goal with only three seconds remaining.

The Trojans were playing without starting freshman quarterback Matt Barkley, who sat out the entire week of practice with an injured shoulder. Redshirt sophomore Aaron Corp made his first career start and while he wasn’t bad (he completed 13 of 22 passes for 110 yards and a pick), he couldn’t come up with the big play throughout the game. Joe McKnight rushed for 100 yards on 11 carries as USC racked up 250 rushing yards, but the Trojans lost two fumbles and when you combine those with Corp’s second half interception, turnovers killed Carroll’s team today.

But let’s give credit where credit is due. Sarkisian has completely turned around the mindset of the Washington program and now has the Huskies believing that they can win on any given Saturday. Junior quarterback Jake Locker is a fine player and can make things happen with both his arm and his legs.

Sarkisian has made Washington relevant again, while Carroll is left scratching his head for the fourth year in a row. It’ll be interesting to see whether or not Carroll sticks with Corp or goes with former Arkansas transfer Mitch Mustain assuming Barkley can’t go next week against Washington State.

USC has never been more primed for the taking in the Pac-10. The big matchup in the conference will be October 3 when the Trojans travel to Berkley to face Cal.

Five worst officiating calls of 2008

Ed HochuliYeah, officials have blown a lot this year. But here are just five incidents in 2008 when they blew big time:

1. Washington vs. BYU, Sept. 6: Granted, Washington lost every game this season, but they clearly had a shot to beat BYU in September. The Huskies’ quarterback Jake Locker scored a touchdown with two seconds left to bring his team within one. After diving into the end zone, Locker threw his hands — and the ball — into the air in, what appeared to be, a natural reaction of pure excitement. The ref, however, ruled the ball-flipping and jumping up and down to be “excessive celebration.” As a result, kicker Ryan Perkins was placed an extra 15 yards back, his game-tying extra point was blocked and the Huskies lost.

2. 2008 World Series, Game 3: An error by the first base umpire in Game 3 of the Fall Classic nearly gave the Tampa Bay Rays a series-turning win over the Phillies. It was the top of seventh, Rays at bat. Carl Crawford led off and tapped a well-placed bunt up the first-base line. The Phillies near-46-year-old Jamie Moyer dashed down the line, dove to field the ball and, in one graceful motion, tossed it to Ryan Howard at first, who snatched out of the air bare-handed with his foot on the bag. It looked as though Howard — with ball in hand — stood on the base awaiting Crawford’s arrival. The umpire thought otherwise. Safe! The Rays scored two subsequent runs to come back within one, but the Phillies managed to hang on to their lead for the win and, well, you know the rest.

3. Georgetown vs. Villanova, Feb. 11: Like Holmes’ catch, this one was all about the line. With the score tied at 53 apiece and only a second left on the clock, Georgetown’s Jonathan Wallace sped up the floor, dodging Villanova defenders. Still 70-something feet from the basket, Wallace heard the ref blow the whistle and, thinking there was no way a foul would be called in such a tight situation, Wallace assumed he stepped out of bounds. And when you assume you … I won’t go there. In short, the ref did the unthinkable and called a foul on ‘Nova’s Corey Stokes, gave Wallace two freebies at the line and handed Georgetown a 55-53 win.

4. Heat vs. Clippers, Nov. 29: Sometimes a bad call is any call. With Miami trailing 97-96 and the clock reading 7.6 seconds, Los Angeles’ Baron Davis inbounded the ball after a Miami score. With none of his teammates open, he heaved the ball down court, hoping a Clipper would miraculously take control. Dwayne Wade got it instead. As he grabbed the ball out of mid-air and was falling onto the scorers’ table, Wade threw the ball toward the three lone Heat players near the basket. The ref thought Wade had stepped out of bounds but, after reviewing the play, the steal was upheld. Unfortunately, the breakaway play was cut off, and the Heat was forced to inbounds, which resulted in the Clippers fouling and, ultimately, the Heat losing.

5. Broncos vs. Chargers, Sept. 14: Here you go, Ravens fans. If you thought your call was bad, think about how the Chargers felt on this one. With less than two minutes remaining, the Broncos lined up on the Chargers 1-yard line with the chance to tie the game. As Jay Cutler dropped back, the ball slipped out of his hands and into those of San Diego linebacker Tim Dobbins. As soon as the ball touched the ground, referee Ed Hochuli quickly — too quickly — blew his whistle. Hochuli ruled an incomplete pass, though the replay clearly showed it was a fumble. So, Denver regrouped, scored a touchdown, followed with a two-point conversion and won 39-38. Hochuli later apologized for his error.

You’ll never get a Charger fan to say this but I still feel bad for Hochuli. That guy has been a great ref throughout his career but he’ll always be remembered for this one mistake. Albeit it was a massive mistake, but still…

Déjà vu: Jim Mora to leave Seahawks for University of Washington?

Remember when the Atlanta Falcons fired Jim Mora two seasons ago for openly saying on a Seattle-based radio show that his dream job would be to coach at the University of Washington? Well his dream might become a reality because the position is open and rumor has it that he’s considering bolting the Seahawks for it.

Two years ago, then-Atlanta Falcons coach Jim Mora sealed his fate in Atlanta by saying in a radio interview that he’d bolt the Falcons (as Bobby Petrino would do a year later) if Mora had the opportunity to become the head coach at the University of Washington, his alma mater.
Mora was later fired by the Falcons, apparently due in part to his surprisingly candid display of disloyalty to his employer.

And so he landed as an assistant coach with the Seahawks. With head coach Mike Holmgren deciding to make 2008 his final year with the team, the Seahawks entered into an agreement earlier this year that will make Mora the head coach after Holmgren goes. (An exception to the Rooney Rule permits such arrangements, even though we think that such arrangements circumvent the spirit of the rule.)

But now the Washington job is open, and rumors are flying that Mora is getting the job, according to Profootballtalk.com.

Granted, these rumors are coming from the ultra-hit and miss Profootballtalk.com, but considering this shady S.O.B. played at Washington and showed interest in the job before, I wouldn’t doubt the rumors are true.

At least this time Mora is on a team that has no shot for the playoffs. When he talked about the Washington job while still coaching in Atlanta, the Falcons were still in the postseason hunt, only to crash and burn because of the distraction he created.

Is USC being unfairly punished?

That’s what Darren Everson of The Wall Street Journal writes:

USC TrojansIt’s becoming increasingly clear that, unlike the champions of other conferences, USC must go undefeated to reach the national-title game. Even in 2003, when the Trojans finished the regular season ranked first in both major polls, the BCS computers excluded them from the title game. The Big 12 likely will land a one-loss team in the national-championship game this season, as have the Big Ten and Southeastern conferences in recent years (the SEC sent two-loss LSU last season).

But USC, regarded as playing a weaker schedule in the Pac-10, has been held to a tougher standard. The irony of this predicament? The Trojans should have less to prove than other contenders, given their 5-1 all-time BCS bowl record and that, like the rest of the Pac-10, they buck the national trend by playing a rigorous nonconference schedule. Sensitive to more fickle fan bases less likely to swallow the weak nonconference pablum served elsewhere, USC and other Pac-10 schools schedule more major-college competition than other conferences. For example, undefeated Alabama’s nonconference slate included Clemson, Tulane, Western Kentucky and Arkansas State.

Meanwhile, the Trojans played Virginia, Ohio State and Notre Dame — three big names, albeit two mired in surprisingly mediocre seasons. Come season’s end, though, USC gets little credit for it, and gets unfairly punished by the computers for playing in a conference with Washington and Washington State teams playing outrageously awful ball. The worst in other conferences — say, Iowa State in the Big 12 — were about as beatable. They just didn’t get outscored 127-0 over two games the way the Cougars did.

The Pac-10 also lacks a championship game. Florida, a team with a resume similar to USC’s, can play its way into the national-title game thanks to its conference title match with Alabama. Then again, there’s no need for it out west, since every Pac-10 team plays each other.

Everson brings up several good points. It’s not USC’s fault that Ohio State and Virginia took a step back this year or that Notre Dame is a mess. They didn’t schedule Appalachian State or the Citadel. (Although I fully believe that App State would beat Washington or Washington State if they played tomorrow.)

That said, USC gets more than enough media love so yes, they do have to go undefeated. They should beat Oregon State and they should hang 60 points on Washington and Washington State. No Pac-10 title game? Then every week is a Pac-10 title game for the Trojans.

The BCS is a mess and USC’s situation is just another small example.

Tyrone Willingham fired at Washington

Tyrone Willingham has been fired by the University of Washington.

According to UW president Mark Emmert, the decision to fire the coach was made shortly after Oregon State pounded the Huskies 34-13 at Husky Stadium on Oct. 18, and Willingham was notified early last week.

So with the knowledge that his UW tenure had run its course, Willingham game-planned, schemed, met with the media and tried to motivate his players to tackle the Irish.

But after one more colossal loss — a 33-7 thumping by Notre Dame on Saturday — Washington made the firing official Monday morning.

Willingham will coach through the end of the season, and the university will pay him $1 million to buy out the final year of his contract.

The news made for a strange Monday on Montlake.

Woodward, the athletic director named but a month ago, and Willingham, he of the 11-32 record in four seasons, sat side by side despite being on opposite ends of a silent disagreement. Later, players muddled through the right things to say as an emotional tug-of-war over the coaches who recruited them and an 0-7 season raged within.

Woodward, who sat to Willingham’s right at the coach’s weekly press luncheon Monday, said the search for a new coach would begin immediately. And Willingham flatly said the decision to part ways at season’s end was not his.

“It’s just not in my makeup (to quit),” he said.

I always rooted for Willingham because I felt he didn’t get a fair shake in South Bend towards the end of his tenure there. But obviously Washington had to do something – the loss to Notre Dame was embarrassing, although apparently that wasn’t the final straw because Willingham was done a week ago regardless. I’m sure he’ll wind up somewhere and I hope he succeeds.

Best and Worst of College Football’s First Half

Rivals.com put together its best and worst moments from the first half of college football.

Colt McCoy5 MOST IMPORTANT THINGS WE’VE LEARNED
1. THE BIG 12 IS THE NATION’S BEST CONFERENCE. Yeah, yeah, defense wins championships. But the offenses in this conference would cause a video game to short-circuit. Never before has one conference had so much firepower. As we turn the corner on the halfway mark, the Big 12 has four teams –Texas, Oklahoma, Texas Tech and Oklahoma State – ranked in the top 10. And Missouri and Kansas are in the top 20.

5 THINGS WE’RE STILL WAITING TO LEARN
2. IS NOTRE DAME BACK? The Irish are 4-2. But, honestly, who have they beaten? Even if the Fighting Irish march on to finish 9-3, we won’t know how good this program is until next fall.

5 BEST MOVES
3. OHIO STATE HANDS ITS OFFENSE TO TERRELLE PRYOR. It took some guts to hand the starting quarterback job to a true freshman, particularly since incumbent starter Todd Boeckman had directed the Buckeyes to a BCS Championship Game appearance. But Ohio State has looked like an entirely different team with Pryor at the helm.

5 WORST MOVES
1. AUBURN SWITCHING TO THE SPREAD OFFENSE. Auburn has the type of championship-caliber defense that could have made the Tigers a top-10 team as long as their offense was merely competent. Switching to the spread when you don’t have players suited to that offense assured Auburn would waste all the talent it had assembled on the other side of the ball.

5 HOTTEST SEATS
2. TYRONE WILLINGHAM, WASHINGTON. It’s not if but when he will be asked to turn in his keys. When he leaves, Willingham can know he has left the place better than he found it.

Do yourself and click on the link to check out the entire article because it’s great.

And speaking of the disaster that is Willingham and Washington, the Huskies are 42-point underdogs at home this Saturday against USC. Forty-two point underdogs…at home…and the Trojans are probably a lock to cover…seriously.

Week 3 College Football Primer

Time to check out the big games, top matchups and potential upsets as college football heads into Week 3.

Mark SanchezTop 25 Action:
No. 5 Ohio State (2-0) at No. 1 USC (1-0), Saturday 8:00 PM ET ABC
OSU head coach Jim Tressel said Tuesday that Heisman candidate Beanie Wells will play Saturday in Southern Cal. The Buckeyes are going to need all the offensive firepower they can get against one of the best front sevens in the nation. USC quarterback Mark Sanchez shredded Virginia for over 300 yards and three touchdowns in Week 1, but OSU’s defense is loaded with experienced talent. This is one of the most anticipated college football games of the year and should be a tight contest, although oddsmakers have made the Trojans 10.5-point favorites. (Check out our offical Ohio State-USC smack talk thread as well.)

No. 13 Kansas (2-0) at No. 19 South Florida (2-0), Friday 8:00 PM ET ESPN2
This is a tremendous matchup to kick off the Week 3 schedule as Kansas and its high-powered offense take on South Florida, which has the No. 1 ranked defense in college football. In their two wins, the Jayhawks averaged over 450 yards a game, but they go up against a Bulls’ defense Friday night that has only allowed an average of 161.5 yards per game. Oddsmakers have listed South Florida as a 3-point home favorite.

No. 10 Wisconsin (2-0) at No. 21 Fresno State (1-0), 10:30 PM ET ESPN2
Marshall rolled out to a 14-0 lead on the Badgers last week before Wisconsin eventually settled down and hammered the Thundering Heard 51-14 to improve to 2-0 on the year. Fresno State dismantled Rutgers 24-7 in New Jersey in Week 1 and should be well rested coming off a bye last week. One thing to keep an eye on is the health status of Wisconsin TE Travis Beckum, who missed the Badgers’ first two games this year with a bad hamstring. Beckum is highly regarded as one of the top tight end prospect in college football and is expected to play this weekend.

Chris SmelleyNo. 2 Georgia (2-0) at South Carolina (1-1), Saturday 3:30 PM ET CBS
Before being upset by Vanderbilt last week, the Game Cocks were supposed to be Georgia’s first real test of the 2008 season. One has to assume that South Carolina is going to come out fired up after being bounced from the top 25 following their loss to the Commodores. The Bulldogs absolutely hammered Central Michigan last week, but can’t take anything for granted this Saturday playing a pissed off Steve Spurrier squad. SC is a 7.5-point home underdog.

Upset Watch:
UCLA (1-0) at No. 18 BYU (2-0)
Washington gave BYU all it could handle in Week 2 before the Cougars eventually eked out a 28-27 win. And the last time we saw the Bruins, they were upsetting Tennessee in the first week of the season. While this wouldn’t be a huge upset, it would be the second time in two chances that UCLA knocks off a ranked opponent. And with Fresno State, Oregon, California, ASU and USC on their schedule, the Bruins will have plenty of opportunities to make some noise and possibly become one of the best surprises of the season. BYU is currently an 8-point favorite.

Other notable games:
No. 14 East Carolina at Tulane – Saturday, 3:00 PM ET
No. 3 Oklahoma at Washington – Saturday, 7:45 PM ET
Arkansas at No. 8 Texas – Saturday, 3:30 PM ET

Week 2 College Football Primer

Time to check out the big games, top matchups and potential upsets as college football heads into Week 2.

Top 25 Action:
None. Nobody in the top 25 plays each other this weekend, which must have the television networks really, really excited.

Chris Keep your eye on:
Ohio (0-1) at No. 3 Ohio State (1-0)
The Buckeyes should have no problem with instate rival Ohio this weekend, but it’ll be interesting to see if head coach Jim Tressel plays injured running back and Heisman hopeful Chris Wells. With a trip to Southern Cal on the docket, there’s no reason to play Wells this week against a cupcake like Ohio. (Although I’ll be the first to note that the MAC deserves more attention than what it gets. See the “Upset Watch” section for proof.) A running back-by-committee of David Herron, Maurice Wells and Brandon Saine should be more than enough for OSU to roll the Bobcats, so there should be no reason for “Beanie” to even dress.

Upset Watch:
No. 8 West Virginia (1-0) at East Carolina (0-1)
While it’s true that I wouldn’t even have mentioned this game had it not been for the Pirates knocking off VA Tech last week, East Carolina has proven that it can hang with top programs. ECU will be looking for its third straight win over a ranked opponent, although West Virginia has won seven straight over the Pirates coming into this contest. Oddsmakers clearly feel that ECU can hang with the Mountaineers given that WVU is only an 8-point favorite.

Dan LeFevourCentral Michigan (1-0) at No. 2 Georgia (1-0)
Yes, outside of the MAC last year the Chippewas got smacked by Kansas (52-7) and Purdue (45-22). But as Bowling Green proved by beating PITT last week, the MAC has some talented teams and CMU is currently the class of the conference. They have a Hesiman candidate at quarterback in Dan LeFevour and a playmaker at running back in Ontario Sneed. There’s no doubt Georgia has better and deeper talent and it’s tough for any team to win between the hedges (let alone a MAC team), but could UGA overlook little ol’ CMU with a trip to South Carolina on the schedule next week? Obviously oddsmakers don’t think so as they’ve made the Dawgs a 24-point favorite.

Other notable games:
Miami (FL) at No. 5 Florida – Saturday, Sept 6, 8:00pm ET
No. 15 BYU at Washington – Saturday, Sept 6, 3:00pm ET
Mississippi at No. 20 Wake Forest – Saturday, Sept 6, 3:300pm ET

Week 1 College Football Primer

The line is old, tired and clichéd by I’m going to use it anyway: Football is back!

This is the opening week of college football with action kicking off Thursday, August 25 and running through Labor Day, Monday, September 1. Below is our Week 1 College Football Primer.

Top 25 Action:
No. 20 Illinois at No. 6 Missouri – Saturday, August 30, 8:30pm ET
Ron Zook and the Illini try to build on their 2007 success with a trip to Missouri to take on the No. 6 Tigers. Quarterback Chase Daniel looks to start his Heisman Trophy campaign off with a bang as he’ll face an Illinois defense that ranked 83rd in the nation against the pass last season. Even though this looks like a mismatch in favor of Missouri, clearly oddsmakers feel that the Illini can keep the game close considering the Tigers opened up as 8.5-point favorites.

No. 24 Alabama at No. 9 Clemson – Saturday, August 30, 8:00pm ET
The Tigers are considered the favorites to win the ACC this season, but Tommy Bowden’s crew has found a way to underachieve in the past. Clemson arguably has the best senior quarterback in the country Cullen Harper and the ACC’s best backfield tandem in James Davis and C.J. Spiller. For Alabama, Nick Saban’s team is expected to be improved this year and should give Clemson a game this weekend.

Keep your eye on:
Hawaii at No. 5 Florida – Saturday, August 30, 12:30pm ET
Hawaii lost their all-time leading passer Colt Brennan to the NFL and head coach June Jones to SMU, but the Warriors are still expected to light up the scoreboard. The Gators are clearly the better team, led by 2007 Heisman winner Tim Tebow, but Hawaii is no cupcake opponent. Think there might be some points scored in this game? Oddsmakers have established the over/under total at a whopping 71 points.

Upset Watch:
Appalachian State at No. 7 LSU – Saturday, August 30, 5:00pm ET
The Mountaineers couldn’t do it again could they? LSU is solid in the trenches and should be able to overpower tiny App State, but the same was said last year when the Mountaineers rolled into Ann Arbor and knocked off Michigan. With the explosive Armanti Edwards at quarterback, anything is possible.

Other noteable games:
No. 3 USC at Virginia – Saturday, August 30, 3:30pm ET
Washington at No. 21 Oregon – Saturday, August 30, 10:00pm ET
No. 18 Tennessee at UCLA – Monday, September 1, 8:00pm ET

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