Obviously, it depends on how they fare in the playoffs, but if the Cavs fail to win a championship this year, and Shaq is still healthy and producing, they may revisit the trade that almost was.

Phoenix looked ready to do it for the low, low, bargain price of Wally Szczerbiak and Sasha Pavlovic.

However, instead of Szczerbiak, whose $13.5-million-a-year deal is expiring, the Cavaliers insisted the Suns take Ben Wallace, who has one more season at $14 million left.

Oh, and Shaq, who’s still broadcasting his love for Phoenix, is saying privately he wants out, upset to the highest level of upsetivity, as he once said, at almost being traded, or the team’s return to running, or both.

If Shaq were to end up in Cleveland next season, motivation wouldn’t be a problem. The main issues are his age (37) and his knees. Phoenix owner Rod Sarver is in a tough financial position, but a summer trade would require him to take on equal salary for the 2009-10 season (in the form of Ben Wallace and Sasha Pavlovic?), so he might as well hold onto Shaq if the big fella isn’t causing a ruckus. Cleveland’s best and cheapest shot at Shaq was the Szczerbiak-and-Pavlovic deal that apparently wasn’t good enough for the Cavs.

Cleveland could revisit this trade in the summer, but since Shaq’s deal will be expiring next season, the Suns won’t be nearly as motivated to move him. They may ask for a young prospect and/or draft picks to make a deal work, and that’s a more expensive package than the one the Cavs just passed on.

You can blame it on the Grizzlies.

Ever since they traded Pau Gasol to the Lakers for a bag of peanuts and some slightly used underwear, NBA teams have become more and more fickle about pulling the proverbial trigger. With the state of the economy, and some owners desperately trying to cut payroll before the cap and luxury tax thresholds decline, it’s a buyer’s market out there. And those buyers are looking for Gasol-type deals. On the flip side, Chris Wallace took all kinds of grief over that trade and general managers around the league don’t want to follow in his footsteps.

After two or three weeks of covering all of this trade chatter, the biggest deal to speak of is the Shawn Marion/Jermaine O’Neal swap and that happened almost a week ago. Sure, guys like Brad Miller, Andres Nocioni, John Salmons, Rafer Alston, Larry Hughes, Tim Thomas, Chris Wilcox and Drew Gooden changed zip codes, but I doubt any fans out there are sporting wood at the idea that one or more of these players is joining their team.

This year’s trade deadline was mostly about teams setting themselves up financially for the next two summers of free agency. Even though there were a number of big names bandied about, the Marion/O’Neal deal is the only semi-blockbuster trade of the season. And, barring some last-minute, late-breaking deal, we have these five teams to blame…

5. San Antonio Spurs
The Spurs were in talks with the Nets about acquiring Vince Carter and also spoke with the Bucks about Richard Jefferson. Either of those players would have been a nice addition, but the Spurs just don’t have the pieces (or the balls) to pull off a trade like that. They were willing to trade for Carter, but they didn’t want to give up Roger Mason or George Hill. So they offer the Nets Bruce Bowen and Fabricio Oberto. Great, the numbers don’t even add up. Don’t get me wrong – I don’t really think that the Spurs should have given up Mason and/or Hill to acquire Carter. They’re arguably the second-best team in the West and their current lineup, if healthy, is likely to give the Lakers fits if the two teams meet in the playoffs with a less-than-100% Andrew Bynum. Plus the Spurs are notoriously conservative when it comes to messing with their chemistry. Jefferson wouldn’t have been a problem in that area but Carter might have been. So the Spurs stand pat. Shocker.

4. Cleveland Cavaliers
In the weeks leading up to the trade deadline, all was quiet on the Cleveland front, but in the last few days, the rumor mill started to churn as Cleveland started to discover what kind of player Wally Szczerbiak’s expiring contract could get them. (On a side note, Wally and Raef LaFrentz are two players that join Theo Ratliff on the list of players who ultimately are more famous for their expiring contracts than they are for anything they’ve done on the court. It’s sad, but it’s true.) The Cavs reportedly spoke with the Bucks about Jefferson, with the Wizards about Antawn Jamison, with the Nets about Vince Carter and with the Suns about Amare Stoudemire and Shaquille O’Neal. They wanted an upgrade at power forward, so the Jefferson deal didn’t make perfect sense, though he and LeBron would be compatible on the wing because they’re both versatile players who can defend. The same goes for Carter, but ultimately the Cavs decided to let Szczerbiak’s deal expire, which will give them more cap flexibility in two seasons when LeBron (likely) hits free agency. They run the risk of passing on a deal that would have ultimately resulted in an NBA championship, which would have made it very difficult for LeBron to leave Cleveland, but that’s impossible to prove.

3. New Jersey Nets
Reportedly, the Nets were literally trying to give Vince Carter away, but had no takers. They spoke with Cleveland, Portland, Houston and San Antonio (and probably others), but were unable to come to terms. He has two years and over $33 million remaining on his contract, so his is a deal that is apparently unmovable in the current environment. No one wants to take on that salary, especially since Carter is already 32-years-old and his salary runs through the 2010-11 season. My guess is that the Spurs would have added him had they been able to convince the Nets that a package built around Bruce Bowen and Fabricio Oberto was enough. If it’s true that the Nets were desperate to move him, a Szczerbiak-Carter or a LaFrentz-Carter swap probably would have done the trick, but the Cavs and Blazers apparently felt that Carter wasn’t worth the cap ramifications of his contract and ultimately balked.

2. Phoenix Suns
Surprised? I thought about putting the Suns in the top spot, but once they jettisoned Terry Porter in favor of Alvin Gentry, it became clear that they felt that Porter was the problem, not Amare Stoudemire. Word leaked that the Suns suddenly became less willing to talk about deals involving Amare, and it probably didn’t hurt that he scored 65 points in the two games since Gentry took over. More importantly, the Suns look to be back to pushing the ball, as they scored 282 points in those two wins. (It should be noted that both games were against the Clippers, so it’s tough to get an accurate gauge of the effect that Gentry is having.) It was rumored that they were talking about trading Shaq to the Cavs for Ben Wallace and Sasha Pavlovic, but had they pulled the trigger on that deal, they would have been throwing away whatever chance they have at a playoff run this year in order to save about $5 million by acquiring Pavlovic’s expiring contract. These new-look Suns could be a factor in the playoffs.

1. Portland Trail Blazers
Ah, the Blazers. They have all sorts of talented pieces and Raef LaFrentz’s expiring contract, so they were heavily involved in the rumor mill over the last two weeks. Portland has a reputation for discussing a plethora of different trade scenarios but being very reluctant to pull the trigger, which leads many to believe that most of their trade calls are really just the team’s way of gathering intelligence. They were willing to trade LaFrentz and Jerryd Bayless for Stoudemire, but the Suns decided (wisely) that it wasn’t enough. They spoke with the Nets about Carter, but wanted New Jersey to throw in a first round pick as well. The same goes for the Bucks, who wanted to send Jefferson to Portland in exchange for some salary cap relief. They also tried to pry Caron Butler away from Washington and Gerald Wallace away from the Bobcats. It’s not enough that the Blazers were going to get a talented player for an expiring contract, but they wanted draft picks or a nice young prospect like Ramon Sessions as well. They were one of the few buyers in a buyer’s market and ultimately they didn’t buy a thing.

6/16/09 Update: For discussion about the more recent Shaq rumors, click here.

6/25 Update: Shaq has been reportedly traded to Cleveland.

The trade deadline is at 3 PM ET today, and the rumors are flying fast and furious. I’m not going to spend too much time on each one, but here’s a rundown of the rumors…

- Yahoo! Sports says that the Cavs are considering acquiring Shaquille O’Neal at the cost of Ben Wallace and Sasha Pavlovic. I’m not sure what the upside is here for the Suns other than the fact that they’d get about $5 million in cap relief next season when Pavlovic’s salary comes off the books.

- The NBA league office apparently sent out a memo warning of drastic reductions in the salary cap and luxury tax thresholds, which may have a few teams scrambling today.

- There was some talk of a Tracy McGrady-for-Baron Davis deal, but that rumor seems to be dead.

- The Suns are reportedly still trying to pry talent away from the Grizzlies, offering up Amare Stoudemire for Mike Conley, Rudy Gay, Hakim Warrick and a 2009 first round draft pick. Unsurprisingly, the Grizzlies have declined.

- The Bucks are trying to get out from under Richard Jefferson’s contract and they’ve been making some headway with the Blazers and Cavs about Raef LaFrentz and Wally Szczerbiak, respectively.

- The Cavs have been trying to pry Antwan Jamison away from the Wizards, who might be more willing to deal today with the news about the (possible) significant drop in the luxury tax threshold.

- The Vince Carter-to-the-Spurs talk has died down because they don’t want to give up Roger Mason or George Hill in the deal. Apparently, they want the Nets to give Carter away.

Deadline day is like a poker game with 20 people playing. Teams are holding out until the last minute hoping that they can get the best deal. Complicating matters is the state of the economy and the financial strength of the NBA. There could be a flurry of trades today or everyone could stand pat.

The Cavs were up 61-51 at halftime, but a 22-8 run to start the third quarter put the Lakers in control of the game, and they went on to win, 101-91. That run included an 11-0 spurt at the start of the quarter, and Mike Brown failed to call a timeout to stop the bleeding. After all, the Cavs are still a young team, so they are not as adept at playing through adversity as, say, the Celtics, Spurs or even the Lakers. I kept waiting for Brown to call a timeout but it never happened, and in many ways, that shift of momentum at the beginning of the second half was the difference in the game.

But it didn’t help that LeBron James shot 5 of 20 from the field. He had a near triple-double (16 points, 12 assists, eight rebounds) but he’d be the first to admit that he didn’t play very well. It’s not often that the Cavs get 57 combined points from Mo Williams, Zydrunas Ilgauskas and Wally Szczerbiak and still find a way to lose, but they did just that today.

After the loss of Andrew Bynum for 8-12 weeks, the Lakers have to feel great about completing this five-game road trip with consecutive wins against the Celtics and Cavs. Kobe was apparently battling the flu, but still managed to outscore LeBron (with 19 points) and hit a crucial rainbow jumper with just 2:48 remaining to put the Lakers up six. Lamar Odom (28 points, 17 rebounds) continues to play big basketball in Bynum’s absence, and is doing wonders for the contract that he’ll be signing this summer as a free agent.

So with a 1-3 combined record against the Celtics and Lakers, do the Cavs make a move with Szczerbiak’s expiring contract or do they stand pat and hope for the best? I think they have to do everything they can to win a title (or at least get to the Finals this year) if they hope to keep LeBron next summer, but clearly they have to hold out for a deal that has a great chance to make them better. I think they could package Szczerbiak with Hickson (and maybe a first round pick or two) and get themselves an impact big like Jermaine O’Neal.

Is that worth the risk? Well, O’Neal had 22 points, nine boards and nine blocks in a recent loss against the Lakers and his contract expires in 2010, so it wouldn’t affect the team’s cap flexibility in the long term.

Bosh’s contract runs through the 2009-10 season, so he is one of the members of the vaunted free agent class of 2010. Raptors GM Bryan Colangelo is no dummy, so his first step will be to try to convince Bosh to stay. If that fails, there’s a chance that the team could move him before the trade deadline, which is about three weeks away. They should be able to get more for Bosh now than during the offseason since whatever team trading for him will have his services for the remainder of this season and the playoffs.

Smith mentioned the Heat and the Mavericks as possible trade partners. Miami’s major trading chip is Shawn Marion, but he’s in the final year of his contract and most of the league seems to be unwilling to pay him what they believe he is going to ask this summer. For that reason, trading for the Matrix is a dicey proposition. In Dallas, Josh Howard would presumably be the centerpiece of a deal for Bosh, though he has now stated publicly that he wants to stay in Dallas.

One team that should put a trade offer together is the Cleveland Cavaliers. They do have Wally Szczerbiak’s expiring contract ($13 M), so the Raptors could get immediate salary cap relief. They could package Wally’s contract with J.J. Hickson and two or three future first round picks and see if the Raptors bite. It would be a heck of a lot easier to re-sign LeBron if Bosh were already in Cleveland.

I’d also like to see the Bucks make a play for the talented power forward. Would the Raptors take Michael Redd and Charlie Villanueva for Bosh? I realize that Bosh would be unlikely to re-sign unless the Bucks vaulted into the top four in the East, but with a starting lineup of Ramon Sessions, Charlie Bell, Richard Jefferson, Bosh and Andrew Bogut, that would be one of the better teams in the East.

I really don’t know what happened to the Raptors. After re-signing Jose Calderon to a long-term deal, acquiring Jermaine O’Neal to help down low, and the emergence of Andrea Bargnani as a legitimate scorer, the Raptors should be a lot better than they are. They’ve already lost two in a row and they have the Lakers, Cavs and Hornets coming up in a brutal three-game stretch. And now the news breaks that their franchise player doesn’t want to return.

Things are bad in Toronto.

2/2 Update: Bryan Colangelo says the rumors about Bosh not wanting to re-sign with Toronto are untrue.

“It isn’t true,” said Colangelo. “It’s a complete fabrication.”

“It’s a non-story. Stephen A. got a little carried away. I’ve e-mailed him to talk about it but he’s in bed with the flu. Maybe the basketball Gods have something to do with that. I don’t know where that story came from.”

It will be interesting to see what Smith has to say about this. He didn’t cite a source or act like he was breaking a story; he just said that Bosh has already told the team he doesn’t want to return as if it were common knowledge. I’d like to see Smith defend himself here.

2/3 Update: Chris Bosh speaks out about the story.

‘Tis the season for NBA trade speculation. With the the contenders separated (for the most part, at least) from the pretenders, and the trade deadline fast approaching, the rumors are flying fast and furious. Chad Ford goes down the list of wings that might be on the move.

Here are a couple of interesting names:

Wally Szczerbiak, Cavs
There are a lot of expiring contracts out there, but none gets more attention than Szczerbiak’s. The Cavs aren’t interested in cap room right now. They want a championship.

Everyone in Cleveland is crossing their fingers that some desperate GM will pull a Chris Wallace and give away an All-Star for cap relief and late first-round picks. More often than not, it doesn’t happen. But with the economy turning sour and a scrum of teams trying to get under the cap in 2010, the Cavs might be able to pull it off.

Chance of trade: 60 percent

Vince Carter, Nets
Going into the season, no one predicted that Carter, at the age of 32, would put up All-Star numbers on a rebuilding team. But he has played his heart out and, with Devin Harris, has made the Nets respectable. Which means it’s the perfect time for Rod Thorn and Kiki Vandeweghe to throw him a farewell party.

Carter has garnered plenty of interest from a few championship contenders like Cleveland and Houston who see him as a nice veteran addition. The Nets should jump on any deal that gets them a combination of cap relief and picks. Getting the last three years and $51 million of his contract off their books has to be a priority right now.

Chance of trade: 45 percent

If the Nets want to get out from under Carter’s contract (which runs two more years at the tune of $33.6 million) now is the time to move him. He is playing All-Star caliber ball and, along with Devin Harris, has kept the Nets in the playoff hunt. The tough part about trading Carter is his age (32) and the fact that his contract extends through the 2010-11 season, so he’s not going to be attractive to teams looking to make a splash in the summer of 2010. Another big thing standing in the way for the Nets is the fact that they are very much in the playoff hunt. Do they want to throw the towel in on this season for future salary cap flexibility?

A potential Szczerbiak-for-Carter swap is interesting on a couple of fronts. The Cavs’ biggest weakness right now is shooting guard (though they could use another young big man as well). They have Szczerbiak, Delonte West (who is injured) and Daniel Gibson (who is shooting under 40% from the field). Some might say that Carter will be a distraction, but at this point in his career, he seems to be willing to put aside his ego (and stats) to win a championship and LeBron James is one of those players whose stature creates an environment that makes it easy for guys to fall in line. Just look at Mo Williams. He and Michael Redd clashed last year in Milwaukee, but we haven’t heard any complaints out of him this season.

Granted, winning solves everything, but that’s why the Carter trade might work. If the Cavs add Vinsanity and they break through and win a title (or at least make it to the Finals), the franchise is far more likely to retain LeBron next summer. But they run the risk of the trade not working and squandering their chance to sign a second big-name free agent in 2010 (assuming they’re able to re-sign LeBron). It’s sort of a Catch-22.

Word out of Cleveland is that they are happy with the status quo, but if they can make a Pau Gasol-type trade and acquire a great player for an expiring contract and a late first round draft pick or two, they’ll pull the trigger. And with the way Carter is playing, a Szczerbiak-for-Carter is in that ballpark.

But I don’t think the two teams will make a deal unless the Nets believe that the Cavs’ acquisition of Carter will ultimately backfire. Since New Jersey is one of the potential suitors for LeBron it behooves them to do everything they can to keep the Cavs from winning a title in the next two seasons. Do they believe that Carter will help or hinder LeBron’s quest?

I think we may very well see Szczerbiak on the move, but probably not to the Nets. After all, the Nets already rejected the offer once, and since then Carter looks better and Wally looks worse.

It would be surprising if the Cavs don’t move Szczerbiak at all. Right now, I don’t think they’d be favored if they faced the Lakers in the Finals or maybe even the Celtics in the Eastern Conference Finals. If they can find a good player who doesn’t have major character issues and whose contract does not run into the 2010-11 season, they should pull the trigger.