Bengals +3 @ Texans, 4:30PM ET, Saturday
Before I looked at the point spreads for this week, I wrote down what I thought the line would be for each game. While I nailed both of the NFC games, I was off considerably for each AFC contest. For this matchup in particular, I had the Bengals as 1-point underdogs given the quarterback situation for the Texans. I thought Jake Delhomme would start because all indications out of Houston on Sunday were that T.J. Yates wouldn’t play. But now that Yates is expected to start, the line makes sense. While Houston enters postseason play as the most injury-riddled team in the tournament, the Texans still have an excellent shot of advancing because of their running game and Wade Phillips. Arian Foster and Ben Tate are a matchup problem for most teams, even those that can stop the run. And Phillips will surely throw in a few wrinkles to confuse quarterback Andy Dalton, who is playing in his first career playoff game. Laying any amount of points on the Texans seems risky but the Bengals aren’t exactly steamrolling into the postseason.

Lions +10.5 @ Saints, 8:00PM ET, Saturday
Attaching the hook to this game was a smart move by oddsmakers, who had to do something to give Saints-backers a moment of pause. There are probably plenty of bettors in Vegas who are laying the wood with New Orleans considering how dominant it’s been at home. But the Lions have already made a trip to the Superdome this year and thus, there will be no surprises. At 10, bettors may be apt to lay the points in hopes that, at the very least, they’ll get a push. But at 10.5 the Lions become a more attractive play. Detroit will also have Ndamukong Suh (who was suspended the first time these two teams met) for this contest, as well as a healthy Louis Delmas and Chris Houston (who were banged up in the first meeting). I’m not suggesting the Saints can’t or won’t cover: they certainly can. They’ve been an unstoppable force at home this season and Drew Brees looks ridiculously comfortable running Sean Payton’s offense on the Superdome turf. But 10.5 points is a lot for a playoff game, especially when you consider how good Detroit’s passing game is thanks to Matthew Stafford and Calvin Johnson. NFL fans may get the shootout that they’re hoping for.

Falcons +3 @ Giants, 1:00PM ET, Sunday
If the roles were reversed and this game was being played in Atlanta, I’d fully expect the Falcons to be favored by 3. That’s because these two teams draw plenty of similarities to each other and thus, home field advantage is what sets the line. (On a neutral field I would almost expect the game to be set as a pick’em.) There will be plenty of New York backers for this one, especially when you factor in the Giants’ fierce pass rush, Matt Ryan’s 0-2 record in the postseason, and the Falcons’ lackluster play on the road this year. But while Atlanta is 4-4 on the road, New York is 4-4 at home so again, this is a pretty even matchup on paper. That said, if you’re a trends bettor then you have to love Atlanta. The Falcons are 5-0 against the spread in their last five road games versus the Giants and the road team is 8-0 against the number in the last eight meetings. The under is also 5-1-1 in the last seven meetings so if you’re looking for an edge when it comes to the total, under 47 might be a solid play.

Steelers –9 @ Broncos, 4:30PM ET, Sunday
I was way off when predicting the line for this game. You knew Denver was going to be an underdog given its brutal performance the past two weeks and the fact that Pittsburgh was coming to town, but I figured the spread would be around 5.5 or 6. Nine seems way too high, even when you consider how brutal Tim Tebow could look against Dick LeBeau’s defense. But the Steelers’ offense isn’t exactly firing on all cylinders right now. In their last four games, Ben Roethlisberger and Co. have scored 14, 3, 27 and 13 points, respectively. And that 27-point barrage came against a hapless St. Louis team that couldn’t move the ball in Week 16. Considering Big Ben has a bad ankle and Rashard Mendenhall is done for the season because of a knee injury, this game may be closer than people think. Remember, the Broncos are playing excellent defense right now so this may turn out to be a field goal-fest. (And if that’s the case, then maybe the under is the best play on the board, even though its sitting at 34.5.)

2012 NFL Wildcard Weekend Odds

Bengals +3 (38)
Texans –3

Lions +10.5 (58.5)
Saints –10.5

Falcons +3 (47)
Giants –3

Steelers –9 (34.5)
Broncos +9

Check out more odds at TopBet online sportsbook for the NFL playoffs and other sports.

Pre-season predictions are rather silly, aren’t they? I mean really, we haven’t seen any of these teams play and yet we’re all ready to predict who will appear in the Super Bowl. Ridiculous. Just ridiculous, I say.

But damn it they’re fun. You can’t deny that. If we as fans don’t partake in a little pre-season shenanigans then I ask you, what are we doing with our lives?

My regular season and Super Bowl predictions won’t be released until next week, but here’s a little something to whet your appetite in the meantime.

Ten Predictions for the 2011 NFL Season:

1. The Eagles won’t win the Super Bowl.
I’m not a big believer in Michael Vick. I used to be. I used to believe that he could walk on water and was going to lead the Falcons to not one, but about 16 Super Bowls when he was in Atlanta. Then I realized the guy was completely fine with not putting in the work to raise his game to the next level. I realize he was complacent and was fine with being an extraordinary athlete but not a championship-caliber quarterback. I don’t know Michael Vick personally so maybe I have him all wrong. And maybe he really has grown as a player and a person in Philadelphia. Hey, Andy Reid is 10-times the coach Jim Mora was, so maybe all Vick needed was better guidance. That said, I don’t think Vick will win a Super Bowl this season with the Eagles. He’s never done well when the expectations were high and if you want proof of that, look at his 2005 and 2006 seasons in Atlanta. (Pundits were more than willing to hitch their wagon to Vick back then, just as they are now.) There were no expectations for him at the start of last season because it was Kevin Kolb’s team. But now it’s his team and I don’t think he’ll see the Eagles through to the end. This prediction may look foolish for most of the regular season, but let’s see what happens come January and February.

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It’s now or never for the Houston Texans. Either they win the AFC South this season or spend the rest of their miserable existence in NFL purgatory.

All right, so that was a little extreme. But you’d have to be a corpse not to feel the sense of urgency that is surrounding the Texans as we draw closer to the 2011 regular season.

Peyton Manning’s neck injury has cast a cloud of doubt around the Colts. Tony Dungy was probably right when he recently said that unless Manning is dead, he won’t miss Week 1. But even if he does suit up, Manning, or Mr. Preparation as his poker buddies call him, hasn’t done much prepping for the 2011 season. How effective will he be early on? Will this be an injury that nags him the entire season? Will he be Peyton Manning? Because if he isn’t, then it’s fair to say that the Colts are a rather average team.

Nevermind that though; the Texans can’t be worried about what Manning and the Colts are doing. They need to focus on themselves because their moment to shine is here. Besides re-signing running back Arian Foster and tight end Owen Daniels to keep their explosive offense intact, the biggest move Houston made this offseason was hiring Wade Phillips to be its new defensive coordinator. Say what you will about Phillips’ inability to be a head coach, but the man knows how to run a defense. And he knows something about quick turnarounds, too.

The last seven times that Phillips has taken over as a head coach or defensive coordinator, his new team has reached the playoffs in its first season. And only once in those seven years has Phillips taken over a club that was coming off a winning record, which is a testament to the impact he can have on new teams. That’s a good sign for Houston, which finished 6-10 last year largely because of a defense that finished third to last in yards allowed and fourth to last in points per game.

The Texans also signed a key piece this offseason to help Phillips turn around the team’s defensive misfortunes. While they heavily pursued corner Nnamdi Asomugha in free agency, the Texans did well to land the second-best DB on the market in Jonathan Joseph. Still in his prime at 27, Joseph flashed shutdown corner ability in Cincinnati and should dramatically improve the league’s worst secondary from a year ago.

Of course, the defense wasn’t the only problem last year. The Texans have been a team that has struggled against divisional opponents the last two years. After going 1-5 in 2009, the Texans did finish 3-3 against the AFC South last season, but 3-3 usually doesn’t win divisional crowns. In fact, the 2010 Kansas City Chiefs have been the only team in the last four years to win their division despite having a losing record, which shines light on how important it is that the Texans take care of business against Indy, Jacksonville and Tennessee this year.

I joked earlier about this season being a “now or never” opportunity for the Texans to win the AFC South. Unless owner Bob McNair abruptly folds the franchise after this year, the Texans may be favored to win in 2012 or beyond. That said, when are the Texans going to have a better opportunity than now? Phillips was the right man for the defensive job, Manning’s injury leaves a lot of uncertainty in Indy, and Jacksonville and Tennessee are largely devoid of talent.

Now or never? Not quite. But then again it might as well be.

The Houston Chronicle’s John McClain writes that the Texans will hire former Cowboys’ head coach Wade Phillips, although not to replace Gary Kubiak.

Owner Bob McNair’s game plan is to keep Kubiak and hire Phillips to run the defense. There’s still a chance that an embarrassing loss to the depleted Jaguars this Sunday would cost Kubiak his job, but McNair likes Kubiak’s offense and wants to keep him around.

Bringing in Phillips certainly makes sense on the surface. The Texans rank 29th in total defense and their secondary needs plenty of work. Phillips lost his touch this season in Dallas but in previous years, his defenses always performed well. He also has more experience and a better track record than current coordinator Frank Bush, who oversees the worst secondary in the league.

Now, will it work? Who knows. There are plenty of pundits who think Kubiak is a lame duck head coach and the Texans should just cut bait and move on. There’s plenty of evidence to suggest that he doesn’t have what it takes to get the Texans to the next level, although his offenses have been very good in Houston. He also has already worked with Phillips when the two were with the Broncos in the late 90s, so maybe the partnership will breed success.

We’ll see if the reports are true and McNair does bring in Phillips. Either way, he needs to do something to turn around the losing mentality in Houston.

This has become a practice in futility.

But let’s get nasty anyway.

Check out Week 9′s Power Rankings

1. New York Giants
Previous Week: 3
Why? Why not? They’re the hottest team in the NFL right now, their quarterback has already proven he can win a Super Bowl, they’re ranked in the top 10 in all major statistical categories outside of turnover margin and Perry Fewell (the best hire of any team this offseason) has the defense playing near the top of its game. I’m not entirely convinced that this is the best team in the league but I like the G-Men a scoch better than I do the Steelers.

2. Pittsburgh Steelers
Previous Week: 2
Had the Steelers put their foot on the Bengals’ neck on Monday night, I would have been more inclined to rank them No. 1. But after they allowed a bad (and they are bad, I don’t care what anyone says) Cincinnati team to get within 10 yards of the potential game-winning score after being up 27-7 early in the fourth, I think I’ll leave the Steelers where they are.

3. Indianapolis Colts
Previous Week: 1
Make no mistake: the Eagles dominated the Colts on Sunday. Peyton Manning made it close at the end but Indy’s defense had its hands full with Michael Vick the entire game. The only reason the Colts scored late in the fourth was because of a ticky-tack hands-to-the-head call on Manning that kept their scoring drive alive. By the letter of the law, it was the right call. But the ref could have easily let the play go.

4. Baltimore Ravens
Previous Week: 6
That was a pretty impressive win on Sunday against a Miami team that was undefeated on the road. The Ravens’ defense looks like it’s starting to figure things out again and it was great to see that Ray Rice was a bigger part of the game plan. What a great matchup we have between the Ravens and Falcons on Thursday night.

5. New York Jets
Previous Week: 5
That was a great come-from-behind win for Rex Ryan’s squad last Sunday in Detroit but this team has looked awfully shaky the past two weeks. A victory this weekend against a surging Browns team would go a long way to settle some doubts.

6. Green Bay Packers
Previous Week: 7
I think the Packers just scored again.

7. Philadelphia Eagles
Previous Week: 8
Michael Vick looks great. He’s poised, confident and is reading defenses better than at any point in his career. He’s the real deal again and this is the best we’ve ever seen him play.

8. Atlanta Falcons
Previous Week: 9
Even though the final score says otherwise, the Falcons were in control of that game last Sunday against the Bucs. That said, they need to figure out a way to limit the big plays or else they’re going to be in trouble in the second half of the season. They have a huge test coming up Thursday night against Baltimore. Beat the Ravens and then we can start talking about this team being elite.

9. New England Patriots
Previous Week: 4
I have to drop them down regardless, but that loss to Cleveland wasn’t completely shocking. The Patriots play the Steelers and Colts over the next two weeks so it appears as though they got caught looking ahead. But give the Browns credit – they put together a great game plan and they executed.

10. New Orleans Saints
Previous Week: 10
What a joke of a second half schedule this team has. After their bye, the Saints host the Seahawks, are at the Cowboys, at the Bengals, and host the Rams. Granted, they end the season at Baltimore and at Atlanta before hosting Tampa Bay in Week 17, but by that time they could be 10-3.

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Whether it’s Wade Phillips or Jason Garrett that finishes out the rest of the season as head coach of the Dallas Cowboys, the team isn’t going to the playoffs. But Jerry Jones’ decision to fire Phillips on Monday isn’t about making the playoffs.

Jones needed to send a message to those that will be around past this year that the lack of effort and execution that the Cowboys have displayed this year won’t be tolerated. Not all of the team’s problems are because of Phillips, but the head coach is always the first one on the chopping block when things fall apart.

You always hear about how Phillips is a players’ coach, but most of his players stopped playing for him weeks ago. I don’t think there’s any question that Phillips can coach in this league, but obviously the players stopped responding to his methods and Jones had no choice but to let him go after the embarrassing 45-7 loss in Green Bay on Sunday night.

Without Tony Romo, Garrett’s chances of succeeding are fairly slim. But he won’t be measured on wins and losses over the next eight weeks – he’ll be measured on how the players respond. If they quit on him like they quit on Phillips, then Garrett may be searching for a job after the season as well.

Bill Cowher and Jon Gruden’s names will be brought up repeatedly over the next two months in connection with the Dallas job, but consider this: No head coach has ever won the Super Bowl with his second team. Bill Parcells (Giants/Patriots), Dan Reeves (Broncos/Falcons) and Mike Holmgren (Packers/Seahawks) all got close, but they couldn’t pull the feat off. That’s not to say that Cowher or Gruden would be bad choices to replace Phillips, but Jones needs to at least consider bringing in someone fresh.

It’ll be interesting to see not only whom Dallas hires at the end of the season, but also whether or not Phillips will get another head coaching job next year. He may have to settle for a defensive coordinator position after what transpired with the Cowboys this season.

Jerry Jones wants to meet with his coaching staff Monday afternoon following an embarrassing loss to the Packers on Sunday night. It’s unclear at this point if he plans to fire head coach Wade Phillips, who has yet to show up to Valley Ranch on Monday according to ESPN.com.

If you’re an NFL betting man, you’re putting your money on “Canning -600.” After the ‘Boys lost to the Jaguars and Packers the past two weeks, one would think that things couldn’t get much worse in Dallas. But seeing how disinterested the players were in Green Bay on Sunday night, it stands to reason that things could get much, much worse.

As I wrote following the game, it’s time for Jones to jettison Phillips and go in another direction. Jason Garrett certainly hasn’t done anything to deserve a promotion but why not see what he’s got over the final two months of the season? If you’re Jones, why continue to put yourself and your fan base through this nightmare when you don’t have to? Phillips may be a great guy, but his players have quit on him.

And you know what? Maybe he’s quit, too. Nobody likes to be criticized and not all of the Cowboys’ issues can be pinned on Phillips. There’s only so much he can do before he has to trust that the players will step up and execute. But there’s probably part of him that just says, “Let’s get this thing over with already – I’m tired of waiting for the axe to fall.”

Stay tuned – this will be a story all week.

The Packers showed up to Lambeau Field on Sunday night and to their surprise, it was “Free Win Night” at the stadium.

I hear the Giants have the same promotion schedule for next Sunday in East Rutherford.

Pathetic, unmotivated, horrendous, brutal, horrible, terrible – they all work when describing the 2010 Dallas Cowboys. They don’t tackle, they don’t block, and they sure as hell don’t care. They’re laughingstock of the NFL right now.

And losing Tony Romo isn’t an excuse. Jon Kitna is useless but he doesn’t play defense. He doesn’t stand in the backfield and allow blitzing linebackers to have a free shot on the quarterback. He’s a part of the nightmare in Dallas but a small one at that.

So is Wade Phillips for that matter. What do you want Phillips to do? He has a roster full of players that are clearly only interested in picking up a paycheck every two weeks, so do you want him to hop up and down? Scream and yell? Do the rah-rah speech? That’s not his style and it never has been. The only thing he can do is go about his daily routine until Jerry Jones says, “Hey Wade, we need to talk. Come into my office…now.”

Which should be soon, by the way. After the Cowboys were destroyed 45-7 by the aforementioned Packers on Sunday Night Football, there’s no way Jones can retain Phillips for another week, day, minute or second. The big picture (making the playoffs) has been destroyed, but Jones might as well see what he has in Jason Garrett. Garrett has completely lost whatever touch he had as a playcaller, but what the hell – Jones is paying him top dollar so he might as well see what the redhead can do over the next eight weeks.

I hate to see anyone lose their job but this is a performance-based business and the Cowboys ain’t performing. I’m sure Jones would like to jettison a handful of players as well, but he has to start with the head coach first. Phillips is done; what more is there to see?

As for the Packers, this was a great win (especially with how banged up this team is) but it’s hard to talk them up given how unmotivated the Cowboys were. That’s not the Packers’ fault, of course, and I’m not taking anything away from their truly dominating performance. But I’m not going to sit here and tickle their balls after the sewer water the Cowboys just made us swallow.

Still, despite all of their injuries, the last two weeks have reaffirmed that the Packers’ Super Bowl hopes have not been dashed.

The 2010 version of the Dallas Cowboys are dead and in the spirit of Halloween, there are no Jason-type comebacks on the horizon.

They’re done, finished, caput. At 1-6, they’re tied with the Panthers for having the worst record in the NFC and whether they fire Wade Phillips now or torture him and themselves by waiting until after the season, 2010 is over with.

Thus, what is an owner like Jerry Jones to do? He knows that no matter what he does with his head coaching position, it’s not going to matter for this season. So does he wait it out and then start fresh the second the season is over or does he start making changes now?

The short answer is that he must make changes now. The Dallas Morning News is reporting that Jones is considering making a coaching change, which he should. His team can’t execute game plans, they can’t tackle, they have completely forgotten basic fundamentals, they have no energy and play with zero urgency. They’re a mess.

Jones can’t hire someone from the outside right now because it would wind up being a useless move. Nobody could go to Dallas, install an entirely new system in a week and have the Cowboys – this Cowboys team – competing again this season. There’s just no way.

But that doesn’t mean Jones can’t send a message to his players that this type of play won’t do. If he fires Phillips, he’ll at least be telling his players and fanbase that he’s willing to do something – anything, to right the ship.

Who would replace Phillips? Offensive coordinator Jason Garrett certainly doesn’t deserve a promotion, but Jones once viewed him as Phillips’ replacement so he might as well see what the red head can do over the next nine weeks. If Garrett stabilizes things and gets this team to compete again, maybe Jones can consider making him the full-time head coach when the season is over.

Or, whatever. The end of the season is a long way away. The here and now is what matters and the here and now is ugly with Wade Phillips in charge. Granted, the Cowboys’ problems aren’t all Phillips’ fault but he oversees things and right now he oversees one of the worst teams in football (even though they have more talent than the likes of the Panthers).

Jerry Jones has to do something, even if the 2010 season is a goner.

Jerry Jones said Monday that he wouldn’t fire Wade Phillips during the season. He didn’t say whether or not he’d fire him a millisecond after the season, just that he wouldn’t give him the boot during the season.

This may displease Dallas fans, but why should Jones fire him? Phillips isn’t the only reason the Cowboys are 1-4, nor is he even the main reason.

The Cowboys racked up double-digit penalties in their loss to the Vikings on Sunday. They did the same thing in their loss to Tennessee two weeks ago and are now tied with Detroit as the most penalized team in the NFL.

Is that on coaching or the players? Before you answer “coaching,” remember that Phillips made it a point of emphasis to his players after Marc Colombo was flagged for unsportsmanlike conduct in the loss to the Titans not to jeopardize the team by making stupid mistakes. And yet there was Miles Austin on Sunday, leapfrogging over Roy Williams in celebration over Williams’ touchdown in the first quarter. Austin was also penalized for unsportsmanlike conduct and although the penalty didn’t lead to a score for the opposition like Columbo’s did, it still put the ‘Boys in bad position.

The penalty is a reminder that not everything is Phillips’ fault in Dallas. He didn’t leapfrog over Williams – Austin did. Those kinds of penalties are on the individual – not the Cowboys’ coaching staff.

That said, Phillips and his crew don’t escape criticism here. When Tony Romo threw that horrendous interception to E.J. Henderson with under three minutes to play on Sunday, Marion Barber was 5-for-5 picking up first downs at that point. Yet with his team facing a 3rd-and-2 from the Dallas 22-yard line, offensive coordinator Jason Garrett called a pass play and the result was disastrous. He did the same thing earlier in the game from practically the same spot on the field and Romo threw an interception then, too.

Garrett also out-thought himself at the beginning of the game when he ran Barber three straight times to pick up an easy first down on the Cowboys’ first possession, then called three straight passing plays which netted a punt. I know Minnesota’s claim to fame defensively is stopping the run, but for the love of foghorns, Jason, keep the ball on the ground if it’s working.

But this is what the Cowboys do every week now. The players shoot themselves in the foot with dumb penalties while the coaching staff either fails to make the proper adjustments or winds up out-guessing itself. It’s a sick cycle right now and one that is sure to continue unless Phillips, the players or Jones does something about it.

Something has to give in Dallas.