Welcome to a new feature on The Scores Report. We thought it would be interesting to tally up all the major accomplishments of a college football program and assign a point value to each category in order to rank them against one another. Then our football guru, Anthony Stalter, wrote a little bit about each program and the direction that it’s headed.

Here’s how the points are calculated — 20 points for a national championship, 10 for a BCS title game loss, seven for a BCS bowl win, five for a BCS bowl loss, five for a BCS conference championship, three for a mid-major conference championship, two for a BCS conference runner-up and one for a major bowl appearance (i.e. a bowl that has a recent payout of more than $2 million — Capital One, Outback, Chick-fil-A, Cotton, Gator, Holiday, Champs Sports and Alamo.) You’ll see the total points in parenthesis after the team’s name.

We put some thought into the point values for each accomplishment, paying special attention to how the point values are relative to one another. For example, we figured that one national championship would equate to four BCS conference championships, or three BCS bowl wins. We only looked at the last five years, as college football has increasingly become a fluid and fickle sport, and that’s about how far back a recruit will go when deciding amongst a list of schools.

Lastly, since a program is so dependent on the guy in charge, we added or subtracted points if the program upgraded or downgraded its head coach in the last five years. A max of 10 points would be granted (or docked) based on the level of upgrade or downgrade. Again, we tried to quantify the hire relative to the program’s other accomplishments. For example, hiring Nick Saban is probably worth two BCS bowl appearances, or 10 points. (Sure, he might lead Alabama to more, but he also might bolt for another job in a year or two.)

So, without further ado, here are the rankings. Every year we’ll go through and update the numbers based on what the program did that year (while throwing out the oldest year of data), so don’t fret if your team isn’t quite where you want them right now. Everyone has a chance to move up.

1. Florida Gators (61)

National Championship: ‘08-W, ‘06-W
BCS Bowl: ‘09-W
Conference Championship: ‘09-RU, ‘08-W, ‘06-W
Major Bowl Appearance: ‘07, ‘05
It’s hard to argue that the Gators don’t deserve the top spot with two national championship victories, three BCS bowl wins, two conference championships and five bowl appearances in the past five years. Considering they play in college football’s toughest conference, what Urban Meyer’s program has been able to accomplish in the past five years has been incredibly impressive. The program dodged a bullet when Meyer rejoined the team.

2. Ohio State Buckeyes (58)

National Championship: ‘07-L, ‘06-RU
BCS Bowl: ‘09-W, ‘08-L, ‘05-W
Conference Championship: ‘09-W, ‘08-RU, ‘07-W, ‘06-W, ‘05-RU
The Buckeyes are subjected to criticism every year because they play in a weak conference that doesn’t have a title game, but keep in mind that they have absolutely owned the Big Ten over the past five years. They have finished no worse than second in each of the past five seasons and have also appeared in two title games. While it’s true they lost in both of those appearances, just getting there helped them greatly in these rankings.

3. Texas Longhorns (49)

National Championship: ‘09-L, ‘05-W
BCS Bowl: ‘08-W,
Conference Championship: ‘09-W, ‘05-W
Major Bowl Appearance: ‘07, ‘06
The Longhorns have been a model of consistency. They’ve made a bowl appearance in each of the last five years, won a national championship in 2005 and made a title appearance this past last year. It’ll be interesting to see how Mack Brown’s program fares in 2010 now that Colt McCoy has graduated and youngster Garrett Gilbert is set to take over at quarterback.

4. Alabama Crimson Tide (43)

National Championship: ‘09-W
BCS Bowl: ‘08-L
Conference Championship: ‘09-W, ‘08-RU
Major Bowl Appearance: ‘05
Chances are that Nick Saban’s Crimson Tide will steadily climb to the top of these rankings over the next couple years. The 2009 season proved that there is a changing of the guard in the SEC (especially now that Tim Tebow has graduated) and with Heisman winner Mark Ingram set to return next year, ‘Bama has a very realistic shot to repeat as national champions. (Alabama gets 10 extra points for a big upgrade at head coach.)

5. USC Trojans (41)

National Championship: ‘05-L
BCS Bowl: ‘08-W, ‘07-W, ‘06-W
Conference Championship: ‘08-W, ‘07-W, ‘06-W, ‘05-W
There’s a chance that USC could fall in these rankings now that Pete Carroll has decided to coach in the NFL again. That said, if Lane Kiffin (and more specially, Monte Kiffin) can turn around a defense that failed the Trojans last season, then USC might not skip a beat. Their offense should be explosive again next year now that quarterback Matt Barkley has a full year of experience under his belt, but the Trojans could still have a tough time gaining the power back in the Pac-10. (The Trojans are docked 10 points for losing Pete Carroll.)

6. LSU Tigers (37)

National Championship: ‘07-W
BCS Bowl: ‘06-W
Conference Championship: ‘07-W, ‘05-W
Major Bowl Appearance: ‘09, ‘08, ‘07
After winning the national championship and a conference title in 2007, Les Miles’ program has taken a small step backwards the past two years. The Tigers have failed to make a BCS bowl appearance in each of the last two seasons and must find a way to become more consistent on offense in order to climb back to the top of the SEC standings.

7. Oklahoma Sooners (36)

National Championship: ‘08-L
BCS Bowl: ‘07-L, ‘06-L
Conference Championship: ‘08-W, ‘07-W, ‘06-W
Major Bowl Appearance: ‘05
After making a title appearance in 2008, Oklahoma was supposed to have at least one more shot at a national championship with Sam Bradford under center before he went to the NFL. But a shoulder injury destroyed Bradford and the Sooners’ 2009 season and with his decision to skip his senior year, the Oklahoma program is now in a state of flux. The only good thing that came out of Bradford’s injury was that young quarterback Landry Jones got plenty of snaps last season and if the offensive line can come together, the Sooners should challenge for more Big 12 titles over the next couple years.

8. Boise State Broncos (28)

BCS Bowl: ‘09-W, ‘06-W
MM Conference Championship: ‘09-W, ‘08-W, ‘07-W
Just because they don’t play in a BCS conference doesn’t mean that Boise State hasn’t been one of the most impressive programs in college football over the past couple years. In fact, they have. They’ve won their conference championship three years running and have two BCS bowl wins in the past five seasons. Chances are that Chris Petersen will have the Broncos atop the WAC again next year, although they might not climb much higher in these rankings because they don’t have a legitimate shot at playing for a national title thanks to the BCS system. (The Broncos get five points for hiring Petersen.)

T-9. West Virginia Mountaineers (27)

BCS Bowl: ‘07-W, ‘05-W
Conference Championship: ‘09-RU, ‘08-RU, ‘07-W, ‘06-RU, ‘05-W
Major Bowl Appearance: ‘09, ‘06
It’s easy to forget how good the Mountaineers have been over the past five years, because the last time they made an appearance in a BCS bowl was in 2007. But they have finished no worse than second in the Big East over the last five seasons and have made a bowl appearance every year since 2005. Even after losing Pat White and Steve Slaton in the past two drafts, WVU still found a way to compete in the Big East. While it certainly wasn’t any fault of their own, the Mountaineers lose five points for losing Rich Rodriguez. Although Bill Stewart has proven to be a fine coach, Rich Rod brought WVU its two conference championships the past five years and thus far, Stewart has not been able to duplicate that success.

T-9. Virginia Tech Hokies (27)

BCS Bowl: ‘08-W, ‘07-L
Conference Championship: ‘08-W, ‘07-W, ‘05-L
Major Bowl Appearance: ‘09, ‘06, ‘05
Georgia Tech unseated Virginia Tech in the ACC last year, but the Hokies did win the conference twice in the last five years and also made two BCS bowl appearances. VA Tech has always found a way to compete at a high level under Frank Beamer and will probably continue to do so for years to come.

11. Penn State Nittany Lions (25)

BCS Bowl: ‘08-L, ‘05-W
Conference Championship: ‘08-W, ‘05-W
Major Bowl Appearance: ‘09, ‘07, ‘06
Penn State has challenged Ohio State several times over the last couple years for supremacy in the Big Ten. Although USC embarrassed them in the 2008 Rose Bowl, the Nittany Lions have an impressive five-year resume, which includes BCS bowl appearances in ’08 and 05, as well as conference championships in those same years.

12. Georgia Bulldogs (19)

BCS Bowl: ‘07-W, ‘05-L
Conference Championship: ‘05-W
Major Bowl Appearance: ‘08, ‘06
Georgia fell significantly short of expectations in 2008, but they still secured a BCS bowl appearance that year by winning the SEC. While in-state rival Georgia Tech is breathing down Georgia’s neck in these rankings, the Bulldogs still remain a top 12 program in college football.

T-13. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (18)

BCS Bowl: ‘09-L
Conference Championship: ‘09-W, ‘06-RU
Major Bowl Appearance: ‘08, ‘06
The Yellow Jackets were definitely aided by their BCS bowl appearance last year and the hiring of Paul Johnson. If they can continue to stay atop the ACC, it’s only a matter of time before GA Tech leapfrogs up these rankings. (Georgia Tech gets four points for upgrading from Chan Gailey to Paul Johnson.)

T-13. Oregon Ducks (18)

BCS Bowl: ‘09-L
Conference Championship: ‘09-W, ‘08-RU, ‘05-RU
Major Bowl Appearance: ‘08, ‘05
Chip Kelly did an outstanding job avoiding a disaster last year after the Ducks were embarrassed by Boise State in the opening week of the season. Oregon went on to win their conference while also clinching a BCS bowl appearance and if the power has in fact shifted in the Pac-10, then the Ducks will climb in these rankings next year. (The Ducks get two points for hiring Kelly.)

15. Cincinnati Bearcats (15)

BCS Bowl: ‘09-L, ‘08-L
Conference Championship: ‘09-W, ‘08-W
Due to the loss of Brian Kelly, there’s a ton of uncertainty surrounding the Cincinnati program. However, if new head coach Butch Jones does a similar job in Cincinnati as he did at Central Michigan, then there’s no reason to think the Bearcats can’t win their third straight Big East title next season. (Cincy loses five points for losing Kelly.)

16. Nebraska Cornhuskers (13)

Conference Championship: ‘09-RU, ‘06-RU
Major Bowl Appearance: ‘09, ‘08, ‘06, ‘05
Bo Pelini is doing great things in Lincoln and although he lost some major talent this offseason, Nebraska should still have a dominant defense next season. Now, if only Pelini can figure out how to get more firepower on offense, then the Huskers could add a Big 12 title to their five-year resume. (Nebraska gets five points for hiring Pelini.)

T-17. Florida State Seminoles (12)

BCS Bowl: ‘05-L
Conference Championship: ‘05-W
Major Bowl Appearance: ‘09, ‘08
The Seminoles are staying afloat in the top 20 because of their BCS bowl appearance in 2005, but they’ll need to add at least a conference title if they want to move up in these rankings. They were runners up in 2009 and they have some talent on the offensive side of the ball so maybe they can put it all together in 2010.

T-17. Iowa Hawkeyes (12)

BCS Bowl: ‘09-W
Conference Championship: ‘09-RU
Major Bowl Appearance: ‘08, ‘06, ‘05
The Hawkeyes made a ton of noise in 2009, but an injury to quarterback Ricky Stanzi in the second half of the season ruined their chances of beating Ohio State and winning the Big 10. Nevertheless, Iowa continues to be one of the top 3 teams in the conference and more BCS bowl appearances aren’t out of the question.

T-17. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (12)

BCS Bowl: ‘06-L, ‘05-L
The Irish are at a disadvantage in these rankings because they don’t belong to a conference, but that’s their own fault. There’s plenty of reason for optimism in South Bend now that Brian Kelly has been hired, but this is a program is in much need of consistency. Kelly has won everywhere he’s gone, but can he recruit will enough to win at ND over the long haul? We’ll find out. (The Irish get two points for hiring Brian Kelly.)

20. TCU Horned Frogs (11)

BCS Bowl: ‘09-L
MM Conference Championship: ‘09-W, ‘05-W
TCU was a juggernaut last year, but Boise State proved how valuable experience is because the Broncos made the Horned Frogs look completely befuddled in the Fiesta Bowl. Still, Gary Patterson has this program on the right track and even though they won’t have a legitimate chance to compete for a national title every year, more BCS bowl appearances and conference championships are well within reach.

Just missed the cut: Utah (10), Wake Forest (10)

Photos from fOTOGLIF

Virginia Tech treated their fans in Blacksburg on Saturday to a victory over one of the hottest teams in college football. With a win, Miami would have taken a large first-place lead in the competitive ACC. Unfortunately for them, Virginia Tech came in prepared and eager to please their hometown crowd. Their defense was able to control Miami’s star quarterback Jacory Harris, sacking him three times and forcing one interception. More importantly, Hokies quarterback Tyrod Taylor ran the ball very well, receiving excellent pass coverage to the tune of 75 yards. Running back Ryan Williams was also vital, racking up two touchdowns and 150 yards on 34 carries and two receptions. Hard to believe he’s just filling in for the injured Darren Evans.

After saying this week he looked forward to playing in front of a hostile crowd, he fumbled as he was being sacked on his fifth play, setting up a Hokies touchdown, and his day never got much better.

Harris threw an interception that set up another score and pushed the Hokies lead to 31-7 lead. By then the fans who had braved the horrid conditions wanted to stay and enjoy every minute.

Harris and the Hurricanes did drive 46 yards in five plays for a touchdown just 1:43 into the third quarter, pulling them within 21-7. After Miami forced the Hokies to punt, they drove to the Virginia Tech 30 with a chance to make the quieting crowd really nervous.

Instead, with the help of two drops by Jimmy Graham, Miami faced a fourth-and-13 from the 33, went for it and Harris’ 9-yard completion to Dedrick Epps came up four yards short.

Before this game, Miami found themselves ranked in the top 10 for the first time since 2005. It’s been a grueling road as Virginia Tech was their third ranked opponent in as many weeks. Fans have high hopes for Jacory Harris and company as the Miami football program is suddenly important once again. We’ll see if they can take something from this loss and rebound next week against Oklahoma.

Here are my picks for Week 4 in college football.

Last week I went 3-1 straight up and just 1-3 against the spread, so gamblers – fade at will. (By the way, those are also my season totals because I didn’t make picks for the first two weeks, although I probably would have gone 8-0 so feel free to give me the undeserved credit.)

Arkansas at No. 3 Alabama, Saturday, 3:30PM ET
Arkansas certainly has an offense capable of hanging with most opponents given the vertical weapons they have in Greg Childs, Jarius Wright and Joe Adams in the passing game. But ‘Bama defensive coordinator Kirby Smart should throw a variety of looks at Razorback signal caller Ryan Mallett and use blitzes to help generate a rush. The Tide lack a pass-rushing presence on their defensive line, but their secondary is experienced and should handle whatever Bobby Petrino throws at them on Saturday. I expect ‘Bama to take away Michael Smith, Broderick Green, Ronnie Wingo and the Arkansas’ running game and force the Razorbacks to become one-dimensional. With Julio Jones expected back this week after missing last Saturday with a knee injury, the Razorback defense could be in trouble. ‘Bama will look to take control of this game in the second half with a balanced offensive approach and pull away in the fourth quarter.
Odds: Alabama –17.5.
Prediction: Alabama 41, Arkansas 20.

No. 9 Miami at No. 11 Virginia Tech, Saturday, 3:30PM ET
The Canes are quickly becoming one of the more talked about programs in the nation this year courtesy of quarterback Jacory Harris. Thanks to an improved pass protection and his ability to see the entire field, Harris played exceptionally well in Miami’s wins over ranked opponents Florida State and Georgia Tech, respectively. But the key to a Canes’ victory will be running the ball to set up Harris and the passing game. Frank Beamer’s squad has not done a good job of stopping the run so far this season and if Miami can get versatile running backs Javarris James and Graig Cooper some running room early on, they might set up Harris to make big plays in the passing game. Defensively, Miami could be burned by Tyrod Taylor’s running ability if it doesn’t stay disciplined when shooting gaps. Taylor, who has been more patient as a passer this season, needs to use his legs if he sees that the Canes are too aggressive up front. Miami must also contain running back Ryan Williams, who has been excellent filling in for the injured Darren Evans. While Blacksburg is one of the toughest places to play in college football, Randy Shannon has his team playing with a swagger and they won’t be intimated on the road. This is going to be a thrilling game and one that might come down to the wire. I’m going with the hot team, however, and predict a win for Miami.
Odds: Miami –2.5.
Prediction: Miami 24, Virginia Tech 20.

No. 1 Florida at Kentucky, Saturday, 6:00PM ET
The Gators will make their first road trip of the year this week when they head to Lexington to take on a Wildcats team that has a lot of confidence right now after beating Louisville in a thriller last Saturday. While Florida soundly beat Tennessee 23-13 last week in the swamp, the Gators were severely lacking the big play as Monte Kiffin’s defense kept them in check for most of the day. (Of course, Tim Tebow’s two turnovers also helped the Vols keep things close.) Both teams in this matchup can run the ball (Florida is 2nd in the nation in rushing yards per game at 289.3, while Kentucky is 25th at 206.5), although this game will come down to whether or not Wildcats quarterback Mike Hartline can make enough plays in the passing game. Florida has beaten Kentucky 22 straight times, but up to six Gators missed practice this week while battling the flu so a trip to Lexington could be a more daunting task than what Urban Meyer’s team is used to. Florida wins, but Kentucky covers.
Odds: Florida –21.5.
Prediction: Florida 27, Kentucky 13.

Michigan State at Wisconsin, Saturday, 12:00PM ET
Despite being 1-2, Michigan State has played well enough this season to be undefeated. But a lack of focus at the end of the fourth quarter cost the Spartans a win at home against Central Michigan in Week 2 and quarterback Kirk Cousins missed a wide open Larry Caper in the end zone last week in a loss to Notre Dame. Wisconsin, on the other hand, is 3-0 but it hasn’t been a pretty 3-0 outside of their 44-14 stomping of non-conference cupcake Wofford last week. The Badgers had to stave off a late come back by Northern Illinois in their opener and also needed a field goal in double over time to beat Fresno. The Spartans will offer the Badgers their toughest challenge to date and I’m predicting a small upset for MSU in both teams’ Big Ten opener.
Odds: Michigan State +3.
Prediction: Michigan State 33, Wisconsin 30.

Check out our other 2009 college football previews.

Preseason Ranking: No. 7 in AP Top 25; No. 7 in USA Today Poll.

Key Returning Players: Tyrod Taylor (QB); Darren Evans (RB); Jarrett Boykin (WR); Danny Coale (WR); Greg Boone (TE); Blake DeChristopher (OT); Ed Wang (OT); Sergio Render (G); Cody Grimm (LB); Cam Martin (LB); Jason Worilds (DE); John Graves (DT); Cordarrow Thompson (DT); Stephan Virgil (CB); Kam Chancellor (S); Dorian Porch (S).

Key Losses: Victor “Macho” Harris (CB); Orion Martin (DE); Purnell Sturdivant (LB); Brett Warren (LB); Dustin Keys (K); Nick Marshman (G); Ryan Shuman (C).

Player to Watch: Tyrod Taylor, QB.
Darren Evans’ name would have been listed here, but the running back tore his ACL in practice and will miss the entire 2009 season. That said, it’s just as easy to wax poetically about Taylor’s potential, as it would have been Evans’. In his third season as VA Tech’s signal caller, Taylor (and his coaching staff) wants to be a complete quarterback. In his final couple of games last year, things seemed to have clicked for Taylor, who doesn’t have to worry about splitting time with Sean Glennon this season. Taylor is a dual-threat and if he can take the next step as a passer, the Hokies will compete for a national title.

Team Strength: While VA Tech will certainly miss cornerback Victor “Macho” Harris this season, the Hokies’ secondary will be solid. Stephan Virgil picked off six passes last season and has emerged has an outstanding defender. Throw in seniors Kam Chancellor and Dorian Porch and the Hokies’ defensive backfield is loaded with experience and playmaking ability.

Potential Weakness: Outside of Taylor needing to prove that he can take the next step as a passer and be consistent, the biggest challenge VA Tech faces this year is whether or not their backfield can stay healthy. Evans has already been lost for the year, while Josh Oglesby (strained hamstring and infected foot), David Wilson (sprained shoulder) and Ryan Williams (sprained ankle) have all suffered injuries in practice. Teams can’t do anything about injuries or bad luck, but it remains to be seen whether or not the Hokies’ backs can stay healthy and produce.

Outlook: Just like most teams in college football, Virginia Tech enters the 2009 season with several unanswered questions. The defense lost a ton of talent with the departures of Harris, Purnell Sturdivant, Brett Warren and Orion Martin, while the offense will have to deal with the positions vacated by Ryan Shuman and Nick Marshman. Can Taylor emerge as a complete quarterback? Will the loss of Evans be devastating to a team that finished near the bottom of almost every offensive statistical category in the ACC last season? Can Evans’ replacements stay healthy?

That said, this is still the best team in the ACC and it’s hard not to jump on the VA Tech-is-sleeper bandwagon. Frank Beamer always has the best defensive and special teams talent in the conference and Taylor is an exciting young player who has plenty of weapons around him in tight end Greg Boone and receivers Jarrett Boykin and Danny Coale to succeed. If the Hokies can put to rest some of the questions above, then they’re going to be in contention this year for a national title.

Strap ‘em up, kids. Championship Week is upon us!

Gonzaga and Saint Mary’s square off tonight in the final of the WCC tourney (9 PM ET, and why isn’t this game on national television?), and with the Gaels’ #45 RPI, they could really use a win to guarantee a NCAA tourney berth. The good news is that their leading scorer, Patrick Mills, is back, scoring 12 points in 35 minutes in yesterday’s win over Portland. If Saint Mary’s loses to the ‘Zags, it would put the Gaels squarely on the bubble. ESPN bracketologist Joe Lunardi has Saint Mary’s as a #10 seed, but I think that assumes that the committee will take Mills’ injury into account. After all, he was out of the lineup for three of the team’s five losses. Lunardi says that the Gaels are safe, but they don’t have a marquee win and are just 2-2 against the RPI top 50, so anything can happen.

But let’s move on to the “major” conference tournaments that will take place this week. I’m going to tackle these one-by-one in the order of Jeff Sagarin’s conference rankings.

ACC

Lunardi projects six ACC teams – UNC, Wake Forest, Duke, Clemson, Florida State and Boston College – to make the Dance, and of those teams only BC really has anything to worry about. The Eagles (#57 RPI) are probably safe, but a first round loss on Thursday against Virginia might make BC squirm a bit on Selection Sunday.

Miami, Maryland and Virginia Tech are three teams that could play themselves into an NCAA berth with a nice ACC tourney run. What do I mean by “a nice run”? Well, Virginia Tech and Miami square off on Thursday, so if whomever wins gives North Carolina a great game on Friday, that might be enough. The Hurricanes are a bit closer than the Hokies, so VT would probably have to pull the upset against the Tar Heels to earn a bid. Miami could potentially get in with an 18-12 record and a #53 RPI (against the 26th-toughest schedule) if they were to lose to North Carolina.

Meanwhile, Maryland has to beat N.C. State on Thursday and then (at least) pull the upset against the seemingly vulnerable Demon Deacons on Friday.

As far as #1 seeds go, North Carolina pretty much sewed one up with their second win against Duke on Sunday. Neither the Blue Devils nor Demon Deacons would seem to have a shot at one of the other three #1 seeds. It’s conceivable that Duke would be able to make a case if they win the ACC Tournament (beating Wake and UNC in the process) and a few of the teams ranked ahead of them have poor conference showings. Despite the brutal schedule (#3) and stellar RPI (3), Duke is realistically shooting for a #2 or #3 seed.

ACC Tournament bracket

BIG TEN

It’s funny, because the conventional wisdom is that the Big Ten is down this season, but it is 2nd in Jeff Sagarin’s rankings and Lunardi projects eight Big Ten teams to make the NCAA tournament, the most of any conference. The list includes Michigan State, Purdue, Illinois, Ohio State, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Michigan and Penn State. Three of those teams – Penn St., Minnesota and Michigan – play in the first round on Thursday and they really need a win (against Indiana, Northwestern and Iowa, respectively) to keep their postseason hopes alive.

In the next round, Minnesota would need to compete with Michigan State, Michigan with Illinois and Penn State with Purdue to clinch a spot. If any of these teams are blown out in the next round, they’ll be right back on the bubble. With an RPI of 38, the Badgers look to be safe, but a win against Ohio State would seal a bid (and vice versa, if the Buckeyes were to win).

The only team with a legitimate shot at a #1 seed is Michigan State. The Spartans have the #6 RPI and the 8th-toughest schedule, so if they win the Big Ten tourney, they have a great shot to move up to the top line.

Big Ten Tournament bracket

BIG EAST

The Big East Championship serves as the actual championship for the conference –they don’t recognize a “regular season” champion. It kicks off on Tuesday with the #9-#16 seeds (on BIGEAST.tv) and then on Wednesday the #5-#8 seeds – Marquette, Syracuse, West Virigina and Providence – start play. At 8-10 in conference, Cincinnati is out barring an unlikely four wins in four days scenario. Lunardi currently projects West Virginia as a #7 seed, so they are safe. Likewise, Syracuse (#6 seed) and Marquette (#7 seed) are both safely in.

So the Big East team that can help itself the most is Providence. Lunardi projects the Friars to miss the cut, and with an 18-12 record and a #70 RPI, it’s easy to see why. However, if Providence can beat the winner of the Cincinnati/DePaul game in convincing fashion and then give Louisville a great game, it might be enough to earn them a bid. After all, the Friars did beat #1 Pitt just two weeks ago. But a near win against Louisville probably won’t be enough; realistically, Providence needs to beat Louisville to secure a berth. That would give the Friars 20 wins and a couple of marquee victories over two of the top teams in the nation.

On the other end of the spectrum, there are three Big East teams — Louisville, Pitt and UConn — that have a legitimate shot at a #1 seed. In fact, Lunardi projects all three as #1 seeds right now, but it is likely that one or more will fall off as the Big East Championship progresses. The Huskies seem to be on the most tenuous footing, given their two head-to-head losses against Pitt in the last three weeks. If both teams survive, Pitt and UConn are projected to meet on Friday, with the winner having a golden opportunity to clinch a #1 seed by winning the next night as well.

Big East Championship bracket

PAC-10

Lunardi says that four Pac-10 teams – Washington, UCLA, Cal and Arizona St. – are already in, while Arizona is holding on for dear life. In fact, he says that they are the very last team in. The Wildcats don’t have a great RPI (52), but their SOS (#32) works in their favor.

Arizona is in a tough spot as the #5 seed in the conference tourney because they play a good team (ASU) right off the bat. A win would probably secure a berth, but a loss would probably knock them out. (And you can bet that after living in Arizona’s considerable hoops shadow for years, that the Sun Devils would like nothing more than to be the ones to knock their arch-rival out of the postseason.)

On the flip side, it’s conceivable that a tournament win would push Washington up to the next line. The Huskies have a strong RPI (13) and have played a tough schedule (#14), so if they can beat UCLA or Cal in the Pac-10 final, they may be rewarded with a #2 seed.

Pac-10 Tournament bracket

BIG 12

Joe Lunardi currently projects six Big 12 teams – Oklahoma, Kansas, Missouri, Texas A&M, Texas and Oklahoma St. – to make the NCAA tournament. Those teams are seeded #9 or above, so all six would seem to be safely in. The team that can play its way into the tournament is Kansas State. The Wildcats have a 21-10 record, but their RPI (#76) and schedule (#111) are lacking. After a string of victories that included wins against Missouri, Texas and Texas A&M in late January/early February, the Wildcats have gone 4-3 over their last seven, including losses to Kansas, Missouri and Oklahoma St. What’s worse, there isn’t a good win amongst the four in that stretch. They are likely to play Texas on Thursday, and that’s absolutely a must-win game.

If things break the right way, both Kansas and Oklahoma could play themselves into a #1 seed. It would help if they faced each other in the tourney final, and if they beat good competition on the way there (Oklahoma St., Missouri for OU and Texas for the Jayhawks). With a Big 12 tourney win, I think the Sooners have a great shot at a #1 seed if the committee takes into account their 0-2 record without POY candidate Blake Griffin, who was out with a concussion.

Big 12 Championship bracket

SEC

According to Jeff Sagarin, the Southeastern Conference is a good bit weaker than any of the other five majors, and this makes sense when Lunardi only picks three SEC teams to make the tourney. (That’s one fewer than the Mountain West!) The fact of the matter is that the SEC is much more of a football conference than it is a basketball conference right now.

LSU and Tennessee are safely in, and Lunardi projects South Carolina to be a #12 seed so the Gamecocks (along with the Gators) are very much on the bubble. South Carolina needs to win its game on Friday (vs. the winner of the Georgia/Miss. St. game) and could seal a bid with a win (or at least a good showing) in a potential matchup with LSU on Saturday. Regardless of whom they play, the Gamecocks would probably get a berth with two wins in the SEC tourney. Likewise, Florida can play themselves into strong consideration with wins against Arkansas and a pretty good Auburn team. Clearly, a third win (over Tennessee?) would put the Gators back in the Big Dance.

Both LSU and Tennessee are currently projected to be #6 seeds, but a tourney championship for either team could bump the winner up a line or two, especially if the two teams square off in the final.

SEC Tournament bracket

- THE LOVE OF SPORTS dishes out some tough love to Carlos Boozer.

- AWFUL ANNOUNCING has video of Digger Phelps doing some awful dancing before the UCLA/Cal game.

- DEADSPIN has the story of a 36-year-old Pennsylvania man (with a 17-year-old son) who hosted a high school party complete with cheerleaders, booze and a stripper poll. This is what happens when you knock someone up at the age of 19.

- BACK PORCH (FANHOUSE) has video of Va. Tech Hokie fans chanting TEA-BAG-PAUL-US while Duke guard Greg Paulus was at the free throw line. I watched the game and thought they were chanting BEAT-GREG-PAUL-US, but what they come up with was a lot better.

Duke got a big win on Saturday against Virginia Tech to stay alive in the race for the conference championship. They host a good Florida State team on Tuesday before their showdown next Sunday at North Carolina. The Tar Heels travel to VT on Wednesday. The Blue Devils are one game back, so a pair of wins to close the regular season would give Duke at least a share of the ACC championship. Most pundits have written Duke off for a #1 seed, but if they were to win out and then win the ACC tournament, they could sneak in as a top seed.

As a basketball fan, it would be great to see Duke beat FSU tomorrow guaranteeing that the Duke/UNC tilt on Sunday is for the conference title. Even if the Tar Heels beat Tech and guarantee themselves at least a share of the ACC title, they won’t want to miss out on an opportunity to slam the door on the Dookies. Meanwhile, the Blue Devils need to be careful not to look past a Florida State team that is 22-7. Duke beat FSU in Tallahassee back in January, so the Seminoles will have revenge on their minds.

Joe Lunardi (ESPN “bracketologist”) says that if the season ended today, seven ACC teams would make the NCAA tourney — UNC, Duke, Wake Forest, Clemson, Florida State, Boston College and Virginia Tech. Maryland has been making a move, but they could really use a win against Wake Forest and then a win at Virginia to put themselves in good shape. Otherwise, they’d have to make some major noise in the ACC tourney to get a bid. Likewise, Miami is sitting at 6-8 in conference, but they have two winnable games (@ Georgia Tech, vs. N.C. State) to close out the season. If they win both, they’d be at 8-8 and be in position to earn a bid with a good showing in the ACC tourney.

Of the teams Lunardi listed, Virginia Tech is in the most tenuous position. They have a tough pair of games to close out the season — they host the Tar Heels and have to travel to Florida State. They need to win at least one of those games to stay in the hunt for an NCAA bid. If they lose both, they won’t finish at .500 in conference.