The Scores Report - The National Sports Blog » Vernon Gholston

Jets’ Calvin Pace suspended four games

Anthony Stalter — Thu, 02 Jul 2009 20:30:16 +0000

According Dan Leberfeld of NY Jets Confidential, linebacker Calvin Pace has been suspended without pay for the team’s first four regular-season games of the 2009 season for violating the league’s substance abuse policy.

Pace’s suspension begins on Saturday, September 5. He is eligible to return to the Jets’ active roster on Monday, October 5 following the team’s October 4 game against the New Orleans Saints.

Pace is eligible to participate in all preseason practices and games.

And like almost all suspended players, Pace had no idea he was taking a banned substance.

“This is a situation that resulted from an over-the-counter dietary supplement that contained a substance that I did not know violated the League’s policy,” said Pace. “I am responsible for what I put into my body and I should have paid closer attention to the League’s guidelines.”

Tough break for a Jets defense that has been building excitement since the hire of new head coach Rex Ryan. Pace was outstanding last year for the Jets coming over from the Cardinals, quickly establishing himself as the team’s top pass rusher.

Although this is a huge blow for the Jets, this is a big opportunity for second-year player Vernon Gholston, who was an utter disaster as a rookie last year. If Ryan can get Gholston to understand pro schemes like Eric Mangini attempted and failed to do last year, then maybe the former Ohio State product can make a splash this season. Ryan sees Gholston as a potential Terrell Suggs in his defense, but Gholston has to learn the playbook first.

Which position is the safest bet in the first round?

John Paulsen — Fri, 17 Apr 2009 20:47:52 +0000

I was watching one of the many Mel Kiper and Todd McShay arguments on ESPN the other day [video], and Kiper was arguing that if McShay has Matthew Stafford ranked so high (McShay currently has Stafford ranked #8), then he should almost be a no-brainer for the Detroit Lions, who have the #1 overall pick and need a quarterback. McShay isn’t convinced that he’s a so-called “franchise” quarterback, so he says he would go another direction. (For the record, at the time Kiper called McShay “crazy” for having Stafford that high, but now he has the QB ranked #3 on his big board. It’s clear that Kiper’s pure hatred for McShay is causing him to slowly lose his mind.)

Anyway, the debate piqued my interest and got me wondering – when it comes to the first round of the NFL Draft, is one position safer than another? For example, if the Lions have three holes to fill (they have more, but bear with me) – quarterback, linebacker and tackle – and they can’t decide amongst the three players, is one position a safer pick than the other two?

So I compiled a list of the 313 players that were picked from 1997-2006 (assuming that it takes three seasons to get a decent idea of what kind of player a draft pick is going to turn out to be) and asked our NFL guru, Anthony Stalter, to rate each player on a scale of 1 to 5…

(1) Out of League
(2) Reserve
(3) Starter
(4) Star
(5) Superstar

The Out of League, Star and Superstar categories are pretty self-explanatory. To qualify as a Starter, the player must be starter-caliber for the majority of his NFL career. A Reserve is a player that is a backup for the majority of his career, so he may have started at one point, but on the whole he’s a backup. For the younger players, Anthony had to project a little bit. For example, a player is a starter in his third year – does he project to be star or superstar, or will he simply be a starter for the majority of his career?

Anthony rated each player (and after some spirited debate about a few of his ratings), I compiled all the data into Table 1 below. It shows each position, the percentage of first round picks that position was taken, and the number (and percentage) of times those picks turned out to be superstars, stars, starters, reserves and out of league players.

In Table 2, I summed the Star and Superstar categories (naming it “Star+”) to find out which position provided the most. If the goal of a first round pick is to “not mess it up,” and at least get a solid starter out of the pick, then teams would be interested in the sum of the Starter, Star and Superstar categories (a.k.a. “Starter+”).

The results are interesting. There are a number of positions that hit Stars or Superstars at a 25-30% rate – QB, RB, WR, G, LB and S – but quarterback, running back and wide receiver only hit Starter+ at a 44-57% rate whereas the other three positions are all at 83% or more. The lesson? Guard, linebacker and safety are much safer picks.

But back to the Detroit Lions. They have holes at QB, T and LB and the top player in each category – quarterback Matthew Stafford, tackle Jason Smith and linebacker Aaron Curry – are all reasonable #1 overall picks.

So who should the Lions take?

Assuming Detroit has done its due diligence and the three players grade out about the same (i.e. the Lions’ scouting hasn’t revealed a clear choice), the safest pick appears to be Curry. According to the numbers, he has an 83% chance of developing into at least a starter and a 27% chance of turning into a star or a superstar. Compare that to the numbers for QB (44% Starter+, 26% Star+) and T (73% Starter+, 13% Star+) and it’s clear why Curry is the “safe” way to go here. As the #1 overall pick, the Lions are going to have to invest a ton of money in the player, so it’s better to go with a position that they’re pretty sure will turn into at least a starter (and has just as good of a chance of turning into a star or superstar). In short, tackle has less upside and quarterback has more downside – linebacker is juuuuuust right.

Aaron Curry: The Lions’ best bet.

Let’s bring in Anthony Stalter for some back-and-forth about the numbers and what they say about how NFL teams should approach their first round picks.

Anthony: For those who have followed the NFL over the years and more specifically, paid attention as prospects made the jump from college to the pros, it’s easy to understand why quarterbacks, wideouts and cornerbacks are considered risky picks in the first round.

It’s the age of free agency in the NFL and with that, teams need rookies to play right away even though quarterbacks, wideouts and cornerbacks would benefit from learning on the sidelines for a year or two before they saw extensive game action. Granted, wideouts don’t have to download as much as quarterbacks in terms of recognizing defenses and learning the playbook, but most colleges don’t run pro style offenses and therefore it takes longer for them to learn how to run routes and understand the nuances of trying to get open.

When you factor in how big the expectations are because these prospects are first rounders, it’s easy to understand why the failure rate is so high. If these players aren’t struggling to learn the game, they’re surely crumbling under the lofty expectations bestowed upon them for being high draft picks.

What’s interesting about this particular debate as it relates to the Lions is that word is they’re trying to trade out of the No. 1 slot so they don’t have to carry the financial burden that comes along with having the top overall pick. But if Detroit is so concerned with the amount of money they’ll have to pay the No. 1 pick, then taking a quarterback or an offensive tackle is unwise.

The top quarterback in last year’s draft was Matt Ryan, who went No. 3 overall to the Falcons. Ryan signed a six-year, $72 million contract that included $34.75 million in guarantees. Jake Long, who was selected No. 1 overall by the Dolphins and who was also the top offensive tackle in last year’s draft, signed a five-year, $57.75 million deal that included $30 million in guarantees. So, whether the Lions drafted Smith or Stafford, they’d still have to commit roughly $12 to $15 million a year towards one of those players.

Some analysts (including me) consider Curry as the best player in the draft and he fits a major need for the Lions. When you factor in that the Lions are worried about the potential cap hit that they would endure in going with either Stafford or Smith, as well as the fact that linebackers have generally been one of the safest positions to draft in the first round, Curry would appear to be a slam dunk for Detroit at No. 1.

By the way, the Jets made Vernon Gholston the top linebacker in the 2008 NFL Draft when they selected him with the No. 6 overall pick. They signed Gholston to a five-year, $32.5 million contract that included $21 million in guarantees. Even though Curry would make more as the No. 1 overall pick, if the Lions selected him they would be looking at a yearly cap hit of roughly $5 to $8 mil less than if they chose Stafford or Smith.

Gholston’s salary means the Lions can sign LB Curry for less than QB Stafford or T Smith.

JP: The fact that the Lions would want to trade out of the #1 pick for financial reasons (not necessarily to load up on picks in order to fill more holes) just goes to show how out of whack the rookie salary structure is in the NFL. These guys are paid like they’re stars no matter what, even when the numbers show that less than one in five first round picks actually turns out to be a star or superstar. It seems like, all things being equal, Curry should be the pick because not only is linebacker a “safer” position than quarterback or tackle, Detroit won’t have to pay him nearly as much on a per season basis. Is there a pro-QB or pro-tackle argument to be made based on overall league depth at the position? Is a great tackle or QB harder to come by than a great linebacker?

Anthony: I would say so. Star QBs are few and far between, but there’s no guarantee that you’ll find one in the first round. Tom Brady was a seventh round pick, Drew Brees and Brett Favre were second rounders, and Tony Romo and Kurt Warner were undrafted. Obviously Peyton Manning, Donovan McNabb and Eli Manning were all first rounders, but there are a ton of first round busts too.

I think star offensive tackles are hard to come by as well because it’s hard to scout them. You can’t just look at their size and say, “Yep – he’s going to be great.” Scouts have to take into account their size, strength, footwork and even their arm reach.

Linebackers, on the other hand, are usually easier to spot. Did they show the ability to shed blocks in college? Are they fast enough to play sideline to sideline? Are they athletic enough to play on third downs and in obvious passing situations? And don’t forget that there are more linebackers to choose from in college, too. Four USC linebackers will be drafted this year and all of them will most likely go in the first three rounds. There’s only one USC quarterback that will be selected.

It’s also easier for teams to recognize what kind of linebacker fits their scheme. USC’s Rey Maualuga can’t play outside linebacker in a 4-3, but he definitely fits as a middle linebacker in that scheme or an inside linebacker in a 3-4. Virginia’s Clint Sintim isn’t a great fit at middle linebacker in a 4-3, but he would make a great strongside ‘backer in that scheme.

So to answer your question – yes, in my opinion, a great tackle and/or quarterback is harder to come by than a great linebacker.

JP: Maybe it’s the overall impact on the game by each position. Is it true to say that a star QB will have more of an impact than a star linebacker? It would seem so. A good QB will throw 20-30 passes every game and maybe run the ball a few times as well. How many impact plays will a great LB make? Conversely, it wouldn’t seem like a star tackle would have a bigger impact than a star LB, would it?

Anthony: It’s all relative. That star tackle has to keep defenders off that good quarterback in order for him to throw 20-30 passes a game. And that great linebacker can turn a game on its head by forcing a turnover, stopping a run in the backfield or making a game-saving tackle.

It’s hard to grade impact on a football field. Every position holds its own value and that’s why football is the ultimate team game. But at the risk of contradicting myself, I guess one could say that a quarterback has the ability to make the biggest impact. After all, the ball is in his hands every play and we’ve all seen what guys like Manning, Brady and Favre can do when they take over a game seemingly on their own. But again, they’re just one cog in the machine.

What everyone hopes to get with a first round QB.

JP: Maybe that’s the risk/reward of drafting a QB in the first round. The upside is you get a great player (i.e. Peyton Manning) who can help you win for years to come. The downside is your pick is a bust (i.e. Ryan Leaf). Manning could turn the Lions around but Leaf would be some of the same ol’ same ol’.

You mentioned how rookie QBs, WRs and CBs need time to learn the position – is that why those positions have such a high bust rate? I’d probably throw tight ends into that category as well. I keep hearing over and over how difficult of a position it is to learn. The chances of getting a starter at those four positions are all in the 45-55% range. But running back is a position that has a reputation for being fairly easy to pick up, yet its Starter+ rate is only 57%. What is it about running back that depresses this success rate as it relates to the offensive line, defensive line, linebacker and safety? My theory is since RB is one of the so-called “skill positions” and the best college players at these positions generally get a lot of attention while in school, that the NFL general managers end up pulling the trigger on these players too early on draft day.

Anthony: The running back position perplexes me when I look at the numbers you mentioned because, generally speaking, that is one of the easiest positions to learn coming out of college. So why haven’t running backs taken in the first round found much success?

One notion I have revolves around teams focusing too much on the size and speed of a running back prospect and not taking into account how good his vision is. (I’m obviously not talking about his actual vision in terms of being 20/20 or what have you, but him being able to read holes and get up the field.)

Players like T.J. Duckett, Curtis Enis, William Green and Ron Dayne all had the size teams looked for, but clearly lacked the ability to recognize where the holes were so that they could make their cuts and get up field. Teams fell in love with Trung Canidate, John Avery and Michael Bennett’s speed, but all that speed will be neutralized if a back doesn’t have the awareness to get through that initial hole as quickly as he can and get to the next level.

Now look at guys like Warrick Dunn, Shaun Alexander and LaDainian Tomlinson. Do those players have the best combination of size and speed? Nope. Dunn has always been too small, Alexander has never had enough top end speed and LT isn’t the biggest back in the league at 5’10”, 221-pounds. But they all have tremendous vision and that’s what separates them from other backs taken in the first round.

You asked if quarterbacks, wideouts and cornerbacks have higher bust rates than other positions because of the learning curve and I would have to say yes, that’s a huge part of it. Skill position players coming out of college have a hard time adjusting to the speed of the game. Throw in the amount of knowledge they must attain from playbooks and game film – as well as the lofty expectations for being a first round pick – and you create a tough environment for these players to succeed in.

The game of football has always been the same, but the amount of preparation that goes into just one NFL game is unrivaled by any other sport. It’s why fewer than 1,700 players make it on NFL rosters every year.

Dunn is proof that good vision is more important than size or speed.

JP: So when scouting a running back, people should be looking at the percentage of times the player made the correct cut more than they should be looking at his 40 time or overall size? That makes sense.

One last question – given these numbers, if you were running a draft room, would they impact how you proceeded in the first round? We both agree that Curry is the safest (and therefore probably the best) pick for the Lions, but what if you were faced with a different decision.

Let’s say that you are the owner of the #10 pick in the draft and you have holes at DE, WR and FS. Picking 10th, your team is mediocre and is probably at least two years away from seriously contending. You’ve done a crapload of scouting, and the next three players on your draft board are a WR (#10), a DE (#11) and a FS (#12). You have the WR ranked slightly ahead of the other two players, but all three are in the same tier (i.e. there isn’t a big drop off between any of them). Knowing that the WR has a Star+ of 24% and a Starter+ of 49%, the DE has a Star+ of 17% and a Starter+ of 79% and the safety has a Star+ of 27% and a Starter+ of 91%, who do you draft? Are these numbers strong enough to draft the safety over the other two positions, or do you go with your scouting grades and take the slight favorite (the WR)? Or do these numbers justify taking the DE?

Anthony: I think these ratings would be very beneficial to a team, assuming of course that they agree with my player rankings. But the thing to keep in mind is that not all of the 32 teams run the same offensive and defensive schemes. So certain prospects don’t appeal to some teams like they do others. That might be an obvious statement, but I don’t want any reader to interpret our discussion and findings as the end all/be all for how to draft a player.

But your mock scenario is a good one, so I’ll play along. If I have the #10 pick in the draft and I have needs at WR, DE and FS, and there are WR, DE and FS prospects that are available and I have them similarly rated, then I’m going with the FS. If I know there’s a 91% chance that I’m going to get a starter at the No. 10 pick and that he filled a need and was high on my board, I would jump at the opportunity. I’ll also throw in the fact that having an impact safety in the NFL is almost becoming a necessity. Look at the safeties in the final four playoff teams last year: Adrian Wilson (Cardinals), Ed Reed (Ravens), Troy Polomalu (Steelers) and Brian Dawkins (Eagles).

Another interesting point of view is the one of a fan. As a fan, I look at these rankings and I hope that my favorite team takes a player in the first round that plays a position that has a high success rate of turning into a starter (i.e. LB, S, G). Granted, most guards aren’t selected in the top 20 and this year’s safety class is weak, but in general, I would want my team to stay away from positions that have a lower success rate.

JP: If I were running a draft room, I’d definitely use these numbers to guide my picks. I’d have to be really sure about a skill position player before burning a first round pick and I’d only go that route if I didn’t have any other holes to fill. Thanks for your time, Anthony, and once the draft is done, we’ll definitely look back at the first round to see what kind of decision process each team used.

Anthony: Thanks, this was fun.

NFL Draft analysis: “The 3-4 Tweener”

Anthony Stalter — Tue, 31 Mar 2009 17:24:07 +0000

Below is an interesting article by Hunter Ashley of DraftZoo.com on NFL draft prospects who are defensive ends, but are viewed as 3-4 outside linebackers at the next level because of their size.

There comes a time in many players’ careers when the coach calls them in, sits them down, and “asks” them to switch positions for the good of the team, and often for the good of the player. Sometimes a change in spots is a savvy career move. I recently interviewed UNLV running back Frank Summers who was asked to play fullback in the Texas vs. the Nation all-star game. He was receptive to the change. In fact, he was so receptive that he hauled in four passes for 54 yards and a touchdown. Brian Toal of Boston College took that a step further and worked out as a fullback and a safety at his pro day after realizing that he lacked the size to remain at linebacker in the pros. Voila, Toal is now a draftable player.

Of course, it is a gamble, and it doesn’t always work out so well. Just take a gander at Vernon Gholston. Perceived as an athletic freak and a near lock to transition smoothly from collegiate defensive end to professional rush linebacker, Gholston took the F train to Bust City in his first year as a pro.

With more NFL teams switching to a 3-4 alignment, the need for players who fit Gholston’s mold is growing. But here’s the rub: it’s one of the hardest positions to grade due to the fact that so few colleges run anything other than a base 4-3. NFL scouts are forced to pour over hours of tape to find undersized ends with the quickness and bulk to man the outside in the latest defensive trend.

But with this year’s crop of DE/OLB tweeners looking like one of the strongest ever, the chances of finding a good fit have got to be better than actually finding Gholston in the backfield, right? We won’t know until the 2009 season ends, but why not take a look at the guys who’re being billed as the top candidates to slide into a new home with more success than Paris Hilton has sliding out of a limo.

Texas’ Brian Orakpo is a classic tweener. A pass rushing terror as a senior, Orakpo showed the speed and fluidity to warrant comparisons to Gholston — in a good way. He was never a force until his last year under defensive coordinator Will Muschamp, but that explosiveness off the line makes him attractive to teams like the Chiefs and Browns who finished at the bottom of the NFL in sacks. Orakpo doesn’t quite have the grade to be a realistic possibility as the third overall choice, but stranger things have happened. More than likely, he’ll end up as the newest experiment for current Browns and former Jets head coach Eric Mangini. The same guy who bet it all on Gholston and walked away from New York with his pockets turned out.

Cincinnati’s Connor Barwin has a slight edge in the versatility department after starting his career at tight end. He worked out on both sides of the ball at the Senior Bowl, and not many prospects have shown his blend of strength and malleability. His 4.66 combine 40 time was the second fastest for a defensive lineman and ranked in the top five for linebackers. Bottom line: he’s fast enough to create pressure. Barwin was a defensive end for the Bearcats, however, and it remains to be seen if he can make the switch since no one asked him to stand up in Mobile either. Still, you can’t argue with his production. In his first year on the defensive side of the ball Barwin notched 11 sacks and three blocked punts. The biggest asset a rush linebacker can have is a knack for making plays. Barwin’s got no problem there. But, that lack of experience will likely keep him out the first round. Not many guys can excel playing their third position in as many years.

Perhaps one of the most violent tacklers looking to lift his hand at the next level is Florida State’s Everette Brown. It doesn’t take a lot of film study to see why many teams are drooling over his potential. When Brown locks on to a quarterback, not even the best wingman in the world (Ice Man or Maverick, take your pick) stands a chance of preventing a sickening collision. Brown actually rushed from a standing position on occasion in Tallahassee, which at least gives scouts some video evidence of his prowess, but it also sheds light on his biggest weakness. Too often, Brown’s sacks came on plays when he was literally unabated to the quarterback. As nice as that might sound, it raises serious questions about his ability to shed blocks and take on bigger offensive linemen. NFL offensive tackles are a different breed, and Brown’s size (6-01 256) doesn’t exactly get him mistaken for Lou Ferrigno.

Then there’s Northern Illinois’ Larry English. One of the hottest names among draftniks all offseason, English, like Orakpo, is still getting some serious looks as a traditional defensive end in the 4-3. His size is a concern, but at 6-02 255, it’s not nearly as alarming as his 4.90 40. Sure, 40 times aren’t everything, but when your main job is to blaze into the backfield while still being able to chase down a Darren Sproles type in the flats, it matters. Like meeting a girl who measures 36-24-36 with a great personality. Those measurements are what grab your attention, and they are definitely a substantial part of the attraction equation. But if she yaps all day about handbags and The Bachelor, she might only last a week. Now that great personality, coupled with the numbers, is what turns her from “that girl” into “Hi Mom, meet Candy.” Maybe it’s a weak analogy, but you get my point. English may not have outstanding combine numbers, but there is no denying his productivity. 30 career sacks will get you noticed.

Like it or not, the NFL Draft is the world’s biggest gambling event. Last year’s number one pick had $57.5 million wagered on him. Kind of puts the paltry 10 grand entry fee and $7 million dollar purse at the World Series of Poker in perspective. At least Texas Hold’em has definite odds. Grown men spend years evaluating younger grown men in the hopes that mutual success will allow both to keep their jobs with no real guarantees offered. Ever. But that won’t stop them from trying. Scouts will always look for the guys with the best chance to morph into a hybrid position player at the play-for-pay level. The Al Davises of the world will continue to roll the dice on speed and beauty, the Patriots will continue their attempt to beat the house with multiple picks, and the entire league will sit at the mercy of 22-year-old kids who have no idea that this business is a crap shoot, and they’ve just been asked to blow on the dice.

Hunter Ansley is Senior Editor at DraftZoo.com. He can be reached with questions or comments at draftzoo@gmail.com

Jets sign underrated free agent LB Bart Scott

Anthony Stalter — Fri, 27 Feb 2009 15:49:02 +0000

One of the small notions when it comes to the NFL offseason is never to sign a free agent defender from the Baltimore Ravens. Because usually once they get out of the Ravens’ 3-4 defensive scheme, they never live up to their high free agent billing. (See Ed Hartwell for just one example.)

But considering the man that ran the Ravens’ defense for the better part of a decade is now the head coach for the New York Jets, it was probably safe to take the chance on Baltimore free agent linebacker Bart Scott.

According to the National Football Post, the Jets signed Scott to a multi-year deal on Friday, which Adam Schefter of the NFL Network reports will probably be worth roughly $8 mil a year. Scott will reunite with his former defensive coordinator, Rex Ryan, who is now the Jets new head coach.

Scott was overshadowed by teammates Ray Lewis and Terrell Suggs over the past couple years, but he’s one of the more underrated linebackers in the AFC. Over the past three seasons, he’s posted at least 60 solo tackles and in 2005, he added 9.5 sacks and two interceptions. Scott has good size and strength and he’s an excellent tackler. He also can be an effective blitzer and at 28, he still has plenty of football left in him.

Scott will hopefully shore up a linebacker position that was a weak spot for the Jets’ defense last year. Scott will join David Harris in the middle of NY’s 3-4 defense, while ’08 free agent signing Calvin Pace will occupy one outside linebacker spot and Bryan Thomas will battle first round disappointment Vernon Gholston on the other.

The key will be what Ryan can do with Gholston, who is a physical marvel and a pass-rushing talent, but was also completely befuddled in his rookie season and didn’t get onto the field much. If Ryan could somehow turn Gholston into a junior Terrell Suggs, the Jets will have one of the better linebacker corps in the league next year.

Report: Rex Ryan becomes Jets’ next head coach

Anthony Stalter — Mon, 19 Jan 2009 16:27:36 +0000

ESPN is reporting that Rex Ryan will become the next head coach of the Jets.

Baltimore Ravens defensive coordinator Rex Ryan has agreed to a four-year contract to become coach of the New York Jets, according to multiple sources.

Lawyers are reviewing contract language before an official announcement is made. A news conference introducing Ryan is scheduled for Wednesday.

The Jets made a formal offer to Ryan “about an hour” after the Ravens lost 23-14 to the Pittsburgh Steelers in the AFC Championship Game, the sources said.

Ryan’s four-year contract is in line with other first-year head coaches that have been recently hired, but a Jets source said it was almost identical to the $11.5 million deal that the Rams gave New York Giants defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo on Saturday.

“Any coach who believes in himself wants the opportunity, and it’s a great franchise,” Ryan told ESPN reporter Rachel Nichols on Sunday night.

Ryan was hired by the Ravens in 1999 as a defensive assistant and took on the coordinator’s role in 2005. The title of assistant head coach was added before this season.

I’ve been dying to see what this guy can do as a head coach. Hopefully he hires a sound offensive coordinator and someone he’s already worked with to coach defense so that his system and schemes stay in tact. It’ll also be interesting to see what Ryan can do with former top 10 pick Vernon Gholston, who Eric Mangini sat for most of 2008 because he wanted the former Buckeye to become a complete linebacker. Maybe Ryan will make him the next Terrell Suggs and just allow him to get after the passer and use his physical talents above all else.

Other than him not having any head coaching experience, I think Ryan was a sound hire.

Jets expected to name Rex Ryan next head coach

Anthony Stalter — Wed, 14 Jan 2009 14:29:01 +0000

The Jets’ search for a new head coach apparently will end with Ravens’ defensive coordinator Rex Ryan according to the New York Daily News.

It has come down to Ryan, Giants defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo, Jets offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer and Cards assistant head coach Russ Grimm, sources said.

That the Jets haven’t moved quickly on Spagnuolo or Schottenheimer, neither of whom is involved in the playoffs, is a blatant indication that Ryan is the preferred choice. Like Ryan, Grimm still is in the playoffs, but he’s believed to be a fallback candidate.

Johnson and GM Mike Tannenbaum met with Ryan for several hours Sunday in Baltimore, and Johnson came away impressed, according to a source. Using an interviewing technique he learned from former Ravens coach Brian Billick, Ryan gave a PowerPoint presentation that outlined his philosophy, practice scripts, etc.

The Jets also are smitten with Ryan’s creative defensive game plans, a big factor in the Ravens’ playoff run. One potential stumbling block with Ryan could be his choice for offensive coordinator. The Jets would like to retain Schottenheimer; it’s unclear if Ryan is on board with that.

Ryan deserves the opportunity to be a head coach. His defenses have always been fantastic in Baltimore and he obviously has a knack for designing schemes. Some highly doubted defensive coaches – namely Marvin Lewis – haven’t panned out as head coaches, but Ryan deserves his shot.

Assuming he gets the job, it’ll be interesting to see what he can do with former top 10 pick Vernon Gholston, who was inactive for virtually his entire rookie season because he couldn’t grasp the playbook. One would think that Ryan catch get Gholston (who is a physical marvel) up to speed and get him on the field next year. Maybe he could even turn him into the next Terrell Suggs.

Bill Cowher turns down Jets

Anthony Stalter — Tue, 30 Dec 2008 16:32:12 +0000

Jet fans hoping that the firing of Eric Mangini would lead to the hiring of Bill Cowher will be disappointed to know that the former Steelers head coach will not be in green and white next year.

Former Pittsburgh Steelers coach Bill Cowher, who rejected a chance to become head coach of the Browns last weekend, is not going to interview for the head coaching position of the New York Jets, according to multiple sources.

Cowher, according to a source, has been contacted by the Jets. Although he is interested in the Jets job, he told the team he would not be a candidate because he would like to bring in his own personnel director. Jets owner Woody Johnson plans to keep Mike Tannenbaum as his general manager after firing Eric Mangini as head coach Monday.

With Tannenbaum as the general manager, Cowher is willing to pass on the Jets opportunity, stay in broadcasting for another year and wait to return to coaching in 2010.

Cowher has told friends the Jets job interested him for several reasons. First, Cowher would love to coach in the New York market. Second, two of his daughters are either going to school or working in the New York-New Jersey area.

Cowher does plan to coach in 2010. In 2009, though, he was only willing to return if every situation was right for him. He wanted to have a two-year break from coaching to be with family and recharge.

I think several hundred Jet fans just dove head first off the Hudson Bridge.

Maybe Johnson can convince Tannenbaum to take another position within the front office and then give Cowher complete control. Although to be fair, Tennenbaum has landed D’Brickashaw Ferguson, Nick Mangold and Leon Washington in recent drafts, so he’s not a complete dud as a general manager. (Of course his latest first round pick, Vernon Gholston, looks like a complete bust considering he was inactive for most of the season because he can’t learn the playbook.)

The Jets will probably wind up with one of the hot coordinators considering they already have a GM. Like Cowher, one would think that Marty Schottenheimer would want complete control as well, so I bet he passes on the Jets too if offered the position.

UPDATE: The Daily News is reporting that Cowher and the Jets will now sit down to discuss the team’s head coaching vacancy. There’s hope yet Jet fans.