UFC 124 takes place tonight from Montreal and the main event features a contest for the UFC Welterweight contest. Here are my picks for this UFC PPV.

UFC Welterweight Championship Bout – Georges St. Pierre (20-2) vs. Josh Koscheck (17-4): This is a rematch from a bout in 2007 that St. Pierre won by unanimous decision. Koscheck has the skills to beat St. Pierre but lacks the big-fight experience and overall composure that St. Pierre brings to the octagon. Look for GSP to come out wanting to strike and Koscheck looking for takedowns, as each wants to come out showing strength in what is their perceived weakness. Ultimately I think St. Pierre has more skills and will out-class Koscheck an score a fourth round submission by choke.

UFC Heavyweight Bout – Stefan Struve (23-4) vs. Sean McCorkle (10-0): McCorkle has been making waves for his trash talk, but he still is young to the UFC while Struve has experience in the octagon and has good skills to compare to a grappler like McCorkle. I think Struve will handle a fast start from McCorkle and then find a way to finish him via choke in the third round.

UFC Lightweight Bout – Jim Miller (18-2) vs. Charles Oliveira (14-0): Oliveira has had a great start to his UFC career, but I think he runs into a bad matchup with Miller, who is a superior wrestler that will be able to get him to the ground and control him while avoiding Oliveira’s slick submissions. I like Miller to dominate the fight on the ground and score a decision win.

UFC Lightweight Bout – Joe Stevenson (36-11) vs. Mac Danzig (20-8-1): Stevenson has been showing improvement over his last few fights but he needs a win, as he has lost three of his last five bouts. Danzig has lost four of his last five bouts and needs a win to stay in the UFC. His desperation should bring out his best efforts while Stevenson should also be on top of his game. Ultimately, Stevenson is the better wrestler while the two are comparable in striking, so that should be enough to earn him the decision win.

UFC Welterweight Bout – Thiago Alves (22-6) vs. John Howard (14-5): This fight should be a slugfest as both men are at their strongest working their muay thai striking. Alves has better form while Howard has better power but the key to this fight is that Howard is coming off a fight where he dominated by a lesser opponent than Alves while Alves hasn’t struggled with strikers in his career. Alves should be able to work leg kicks and tire Howard before finishing him with a barrage in the third round.

UFC 121: Lesnar vs. Velasquez takes place Saturday night from the Honda Center in Anaheim, Calif. featuring a monumental main event for the UFC Heavyweight Championship. Here is my take on the card and who will win the main card bouts.

UFC Heavyweight Championship – Brock Lesnar (5-1) vs. Cain Velasquez (8-0): This is the biggest heavyweight bout the UFC could put together right now and Velasquez has a great chance to win the belt. The key will be for him to be able to stop the takedown attempts and keep the fight standing, where he has better striking and faster hands. Lesnar showed that he can be hurt in his last fight against Shane Carwin, but I think Velasquez has the endurance to see the victory through.

UFC Welterweight Bout – Jake Shields (25-4-1) vs. Martin Kampmann (17-3): Shields is making his UFC debut and many are penciling him in as the next to challenge Georges St. Pierre for the welterweight title, but I actually like Kampmann in an upset here as he has an all-around and aggressive style that can give Shields problems. Kampmann has only lost to strikers in his career, and Shields is far from an elite striker. I like Kampmann to win by decision in this one.

UFC Welterweight Bout – Diego Sanchez (23-4) vs. Paulo Thiago (13-2): Thiago has beaten some solid contenders in the welterweight division, but he has struggled with superior grapplers, losing to Jon Fitch and Kampmann. Sanchez got dominated in his last two fights and is desperate for a win, and I think he will come out motivated and looking to control the fight from the start with his pacing and wrestling. I like Sanchez to squeak out a decision against Thiago.

UFC Light Heavyweight Bout – Tito Ortiz (16-7-1) vs. Matt Hamill (10-2): Ortiz hasn’t won a fight since 2006 and while Hamill is lacking in some key areas, I think he has a better all-around game than Ortiz, who is pretty one dimensional with wrestling as his strength. Look for Hamill to move around and work kicks before scoring some late takedowns to get a decision win over Ortiz.

UFC Heavyweight Bout – Brendan Schaub (7-1) vs. Gabriel Gonzaga (11-5): Schaub has a lot of promise and is an up-and-comer while Gonzaga is still holding on to a little bit of relevance, but has lost four of his last seven fights, with all of the losses coming by TKO. Schaub has won his last two fights by quick KO, so this fight should have plenty of fireworks. Look for Schaub to get the win as he has the quicker hands and is the better technical striker.

UFC 119 takes place tonight from the Conseco Fieldhouse in Indianapolis, Indiana. The card doesn’t have a major fight that will have an impact on the landscape of the organization but each of the five main card bouts should be competitive and entertaining contests. Here are my picks for the show.

UFC Heavyweight Bout – Frank Mir (13-5) vs. Mirko Cro Cop (27-7-2) – Cro Cop took this fight on somewhat short notice as this was originally supposed to be a rematch of Mir and Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira. On top of that, Cro Cop is not 100 percent coming into the fight as he is dealing with an eye injury. Cro Cop is a step slower than he was in his prime while Mir has improved his striking while still being one of the best submission fighters in all of MMA. I see Mir landing a big punch in the second round before jumping on Cro Cop and finishing with a choke.

UFC Light Heavyweight Bout – Antonio Rogerio Nogueria (19-3) vs. Ryan Bader (12-0) – This fight is a big contest for both as each needs the win to really get into the title picture in this division. The key to the bout will be Bader’s wrestling, as his explosiveness should win out against Nogueira. If Bader can avoid the big hit and close the distance in the fight, he should be able to win a decision by grinding out the fight on top with ground and pound.

UFC Welterweight Bout – Matt Serra (17-6) vs. Chris Lytle (29-17-4) – I see this fight going similarly to the first. Lytle is an entertaining and experienced fighter, but he never has been able to get that marquee win in his career. Serra really just has the win over Georges St. Pierre to go bye, but he has always been a tough guy to beat as well. In this fight I see Serra controlling the fight with his grappling. The only way I don’t see him winning by decision is if he gets too confident in his striking.

UFC Lightweight Bout – Sean Sherk (37-4-1) vs. Evan Dunham (11-0) – Sherk used to dominate the division with his strength and wrestling, but recently his opponents have been able to avoid his takedowns with their strength and they have been faster with their striking, which has caused Sherk to lose two of his last three bouts. Dunham has that same style to beat Sherk. Sherk will struggle to get the fight to the ground and Dunham will be a little quicker to the punch. I like Dunham to win this fight by decision.

UFC Lightweight Bout – Melvin Guillard (43-9-3) vs. Jeremy Stephens (18-5) – This fight should be explosive as both have big power and like to swing with everything they have in each punch. The key in this bout will be Guillard’s inability to fight off his back as Stephens trains with Hermes Franca and has some grappling skills that many haven’t seen yet. I see Stephens getting takedowns late to set up for some ground and pound and a TKO finish in the third.

UFC 118: Edgar vs. Penn 2 takes place tonight from the TD Garden in Boston and the card is stacked with intriguing fights from the main event UFC Lightweight title bout to the MMA vs. Boxing match featuring James “Lights Out” Toney and UFC Hall of Famer Randy “The Natural” Couture. Here are my picks for tonight’s event.

UFC Lightweight Championship Bout: Frankie Edgar (12-1) vs. B.J. Penn (15-6-1) – Edgar won a close decision in the first match where Penn was heavily favored. This time around, we should expect to see the Penn we thought we would see the first time around. While Edgar has a good skill set to beat Penn, as he is quick with sharp strikes and good wrestling, he doesn’t have the natural talent that Penn has. Look for Penn to work his jab and put together combinations on Edgar, slowly breaking him apart before choking him out in round four.

UFC Heavyweight Bout: Randy Couture (18-10) vs. James Toney (0-0) – This fight has gotten more hype than any other on the card as it marks the first time a legitimate boxing champion is stepping into the octagon. While Toney has one-punch knockout power, Couture is too smart to be beaten that easily. Couture will push Toney up against the cage early and work his dirty boxing before eventually scoring a takedown and finishing with a submission. Toney is too big and slow to be able to keep Couture from getting him to the ground.

Read the rest of this entry »

UFC 117: Silva vs. Sonnen takes place Saturday night from the Oracle Arena in Oakland, California and this card is stacked from top-to-bottom. The headliner is a contest for the UFC Middleweight Championship between Anderson Silva and Chael Sonnen. Here are my picks for this event.

UFC Middleweight Championship Bout – Anderson Silva (26-4) vs. Chael Sonnen (26-10-1): Sonnen gets the award for most smack talk prior to a fight, but he better make sure he backs it up, or else he is going to look like a complete jackass. Sonnen does have a good style to combat Silva, as he is an aggressive wrestler that knows he needs to get the fight to the ground. At the same time, Sonnen has struggled in defending submissions in the past, losing to lesser opponents like Demian Maia and Jeremy Horn via submission. Silva may get taken to the ground a few times in this fight, but his accurate strikes and jiu-jitsu ability on the ground tell me that sooner or later, he will end this fight. I like Silva to win by submission in the second round.

Read the rest of this entry »

The Ultimate Fighting Championship holds its second-ever event on the Versus Network tonight with UFC on Versus 2. The card will feature four main bouts and here are my thoughts on those key fights.

Light Heavyweight Bout – Jon Jones (10-1) vs. Vladimir Matyushenko (24-4): Matyushenko is a tough guy but Jones is clearly the better and more promising fighter. This fight seems like a chance for Jones to be showcased on national television to hype an even bigger fight in the future. Look for Jones to dispose of Vlady with strikes in the second round and jump into the top five of the division.

Middleweight Bout – Mark Munoz (8-1) vs. Yushin Okami (25-5): This should be a tough grappling fight as both are great wrestlers. Okami has done well in his UFC career thanks to his size and strength and I expect him to pusher a faster pace than Munoz, which will open the door for him to score a TKO win in round three as Munoz tires. Okami has only lost to Chael Sonnen and Rich Franklin in the octagon and is very under-rated in terms of his skills.

Read the rest of this entry »

I wanted to chew on UFC 116 for a few days before I really made any statements about it. The event took place last Saturday and featured the heavyweight collision between Brock Lesnar and Shane Carwin.

Lesnar won the fight by second round submission after taking a pummeling from Carwin in round one. It was a compelling fight and very entertaining, but I think Lesnar is garnering a little too much praise for his performance. While you have to give credit where credit is due, as he won the fight, Lesnar looked far from polished. Here is a look at the good, the bad, and the ugly from his title defense.

The Good: Obviously the good came in the win. He survived a hail storm and still came out in the second round and was aggressive. Lesnar also showed improved skills on the ground, as he scored a takedown and transitioned into mount and then into a head-and-arm choke from side control. These were all things he probably couldn’t do two years ago. I was also impressed with the way Lesnar handled himself after the fight. He seems to have embraced a little humanity since his health scare in November.

Read the rest of this entry »

The Ultimate Fighting Championship puts on UFC 116: Lesnar vs. Carwin tonight from Las Vegas, which features arguably the biggest heavyweight title fight in the history of the organization. Here are my thoughts on tonight’s card.

UFC Heavyweight Championship – Brock Lesnar (4-1) vs. Shane Carwin (12-0) – These two have very similar builds and styles but the key in this fight will be Lesnar’s ability to get the fight to the ground. If the fight stays standing, Carwin has the edge. Carwin should be able to stay off his back and land a big punch to earn the KO win in the first or second round. While Lesnar is a stud, he is still green to MMA and never fought someone with the power that Carwin has. Look for Lesnar to learn a big lesson tonight.

UFC Middleweight Bout – Yoshihiro Akiyama (13-1) vs. Chris Leben (20-6) – Leben deserves some credit for taking this fight just a few weeks after competing, but it should be somewhat easy for Akiyama to get him to the ground and submit him after a couple of rounds of work. Look for Akiyama to win by choke in round two.

UFC Welterweight Bout – Chris Lytle (38-17-4) vs. Matt Brown (13-8) – Both of these guys are tough as nails, but Lytle has the edge in striking technique and probably in wrestling as well. Look for him to control Brown and land some big punches to earn a decision victory in what could be Fight of the Night.

UFC Light Heavyweight Bout – Krzysztof Soszynski (20-10-1) vs. Stephan Bonnar (14-7) – This is a rematch of a bout from UFC 110 where Soszynski won when Bonnar was cut by a head butt. After some dispute, Bonnar gets his rematch, but he was losing the first fight before the cut anyway. Look for Soszynski to continue what he started and win a decision win over Bonnar.

UFC Lightweight Bout – George Sotiropoulos (12-2) vs. Kurt Pellegrino (21-4) – Sotiropoulos has emerged as a solid lightweight due to his grappling and submission skills. Pellergrino is a tough guy, but he isn’t quite at the level as his opponent. Look for this fight to spend most of the time on the ground, where George will control the fight and finish with a submission in the third round.

UFC 115: Liddell vs. Franklin takes place tonight from the General Motors Palace in Vancouver, British Columbia. The card is pretty solid but not overwhelming. Here are my thoughts on each of the main card bouts.

Light Heavyweight Bout – Chuck Liddell (21-7) vs. Rich Franklin (27-5) – Both of these guys are past their prime and looking for another win to add to their career list. Liddell looks to be in great shape for the fight but unless he changes the way he fights, he is probably in trouble. Franklin is a more technical striker and he utilizes body kicks, which Liddell will have trouble with. I expect Franklin to use his jab to keep Liddell and bay and slowly wear him down before scoring a big punch that leads to a finish in the third round.

Heavyweight Bout – Mirko Cro Cop (26-7) vs. Pat Barry (5-1) – This should be a very entertaining fight as neither fighter wants it to go to the ground and both are excellent with their kicks. Unfortunately for Cro Cop, he has lost his killer instinct that made him a star and his apprehension will allow Barry to set the tone with his brutal leg kicks. Look for Barry to win this fight by a TKO in the second round.

Welterweight Bout – Paulo Thiago (13-1) vs. Martin Kampmann (16-3) – Kampmann seems to be getting overlooked in this fight as he is a tough guy to beat and he is very well-rounded. Thiago is probably over-confident in his striking after his last win over Mike Swick, but that will play into Kampmann’s favor. Look for the Dane to get a decision victory as he dictates the pacing and location of the bout.
Heavyweight Bout – Ben Rothwell (30-7) vs. Gilbert Yvel (36-14-1) – These are two big sluggers that are going to probably tire themselves out early in the fight. The key to victory will be the bigger size and better wrestling skill of Rothwell, who should be able to use his weight to lay on Yvel and tire him out quicker. Once Yvel is gassed, look for Rothwell to pounce and score a second round TKO win.

Welterweight Bout – Carlos Condit (24-5) vs. Rory MacDonald (10-0) – There is a lot of promise in MacDonald, who is just 20-years-old, but he is stepping up in competition with this fight against the experienced Condit. Condit will be ready anywhere the fight goes and MacDonald still has some learning to do before he can get into contender status. Look for Condit to out-class MacDonald on their feet and on the ground as he scores a decision win.