1. Tyreke Evans, Kings: After missing three games with a bum ankle, he returned to the Kings’ lineup in Saturday’s loss to the Mavs. He didn’t shoot well but provided his usual goodies in the rebound and assist columns. (Last week: 1)
2. Brandon Jennings, Bucks: Critics point out that his game slumped a little in December. Considering how well he played in November, averaging 22.1 ppg, he can afford to slip up some more and still not finish any lower than second in the Rookie of the Year voting. (Last week: 2)
3. Omri Casspi, Kings: Kudos to the Kings’ front office for drafting not one but two studs. He is averaging more than 18 points and eight boards while shooting almost 50 percent from 3-point range in his last five games. (Last week: 5)
No arguments here. I think Evans’s strong December pushed him ahead of Jennings, who has tailed off a bit. Jennings averaged 22-4-6 in November and 17-3-6 in December.
And Casspi is also impressive. When was the last time the same team had two strong ROY candidates?
Much has been made of the emergence of Tyreke Evans (22-5-5 in December) and how things are going to work once Kevin Martin comes back from injury. The Kings have three options: 1) try to play Evans at point guard when that’s not his natural position, 2) play Evans at off guard, even though he’s not a pure shooter, or 3) play Evans at small forward, even though he’s undersized.
Evans is great at creating for himself, but he’s not a natural playmaker at the point guard position. Kevin Martin is an underrated scorer and should not be dismissed at off guard. He’s 40%+ from long range and can get to the line at will. He’d be great as a court-spacer/sidekick if the Kings can find a way to play him alongside Evans.
What about small forward? Is Evans really undersized? Looking at the draft measurables, Evans is a tad short for SF (6’5″ in shoes), but his wingspan (6’11″) and standing reach (8’8″) are longer/taller than DeMar DeRozan, Chase Budinger, Gerald Henderson and Terrence Williams, and no one has a problem with the idea of playing any of those guys at small forward. He’s not a prototypical small forward, but the league is getting smaller and he definitely has a swingman-type game.
The downside? Evans won’t have a strength advantage over most small forwards, which is one of the reasons he’s currently so effective getting to the rim. However, he will have a quickness advantage over most taller SFs, so that should help. Another issue is defensively with Evans and Martin, the Kings wouldn’t really have a stopper on the wing.
Oddly enough, the solution would be at point guard. To complement Evans and Martin on the wing, the Kings would need to find a defensive-minded, pass-first point guard who is tall and strong enough to cover the other team’s best perimeter player. And it would help if he was a 40%+ shooter from long range. Think 2006-07 era Kirk Hinrich. He doesn’t need to handle the ball a lot, just get it up the court, initiate the offense, and share the ball on the perimeter.
The Sacramento Kings were down by 35 POINTS in the middle of the third quarter and rallied to beat the Bulls, 102-98, in the biggest comeback in team history. Tyreke Evans led the Kings with 23 points and eight boards, and also dished out three assists. He’s definitely making a push for ROY — right now, it’s neck and neck with the Bucks’ Brandon Jennings.
The surprising Kings are 13-14, and have won four of their last six, including back-to-back road games against the Bucks and Bulls. Oddly enough, they’ve kept their head above water without Kevin Martin. It will be interesting to see how he fits in the lineup now that Evans is thriving at off guard.
When it comes to the rookie class, Brandon Jennings has dominated the headlines, and for good reason. His 55-point outburst against Golden State was quite the coming out party and his 22.1 ppg average in November was far and away tops amongst rookies, right?
Not so fast.
Rather quietly, Tyreke Evans has put together a nice month and a half. Here’s a comparison:
Aside from Jennings’ superior accuracy from long range, those numbers are pretty similar. Evans has been playing more off guard since Kevin Martin has been sidelined, but the Kings are still starting him at the point. In December, he’s averaging 24-5-6 and is shooting 51% from the field. After his hot start, Jennings has cooled off, averaging 19-3-6 this month, while shooting just 39% from the field. He has only hit 9 of 31 threes in December (29%).
The Kings are a surprising 9-12, while the Bucks are a less surprising 10-11. Evans is much stronger and is probably better suited to the rigors of an NBA season (though it should be noted that he has missed a game this season, while Jennings has not). Meanwhile, Jennings attacks the defense with quickness using more of a finesse game (pull up jumpers, crafty layups, teardrops) to score. It’s going to be interesting to see these two guards battle for status as the ROY frontrunner, and what happens when Blake Griffin returns. Also, can Evans keep up this pace with Kevin Martin back in the lineup?
With Blake Griffin sidelined for the first six weeks of the season, the race for ROY is suddenly wide open. Griffin will still have plenty of time to stake his claim, but for now, the spotlight is elsewhere. It was supposed to shift to Tyreke Evans in Sacramento, but the Bucks’ Brandon Jennings has stolen the show.
He nearly became the second rookie in the history of the NBA to register a triple-double in his first game when he posted 16 points, nine rebounds and nine assists against the Sixers. The next night, after a quiet first half where he only scored three points, he erupted for 16 points in the third quarter, leading Milwaukee to a huge comeback (and an eventual win) against the Pistons. Here’s a look at a phenomenal steal and finish that brought the house down…
This is very bad news for the once-likely Rookie of the Year. (LA Times)
Clippers’ rookie power forward Blake Griffin, the No. 1 overall draft choice in June, has a stress fracture of the left patella, or kneecap, and could miss as much as six weeks of the season.
Tests revealed the fracture and a second opinion later in the day backed up the results and conclusion of the first doctor.
A Clippers spokesperson said it is a non-displaced fracture. But the team will take a conservative approach, meaning Griffin could be out of action until December. On top of the fracture, Griffin is also dealing with tendinitis of the left knee and has been said to have been playing with some measure of pain.
He suffered the stress fracture in the team’s final exhibition game against New Orleans on Friday, wincing after he came down on a dunk late in the third quarter.
The Clippers (wisely) shipped Zach Randolph to Memphis to clear minutes for Griffin, so they are suddenly a little thin on the front line. Chris Kaman and Marcus Camby will likely see an increase in playing time, and DeAndre Jordan and Craig Smith should see a big jump in minutes as well.
With Griffin sidelined, the race for Rookie of the Year is pretty wide open, though I have to give Tyreke Evans frontrunner status for the time being. He is going to get a ton of minutes and should be immediately effective at the NBA level. The Bucks’ Brandon Jennings is my darkhorse pick.
Every year, first-year players greatly impact the NBA regular season. They tend to thrive on bad teams for two reasons: 1) the best players generally go early in the draft to struggling franchises, and 2) those teams need their services so they play heavy minutes. In fact, over the last three years, the players that made the All-Rookie First Team played an average of 29.0 minutes per game. Playing time is opportunity, and with opportunity comes production.
Over that span, players that were named to the All-Rookie First Team played on teams with a combined 500-730 (.407) record. Only four players — Andrea Bargnani and Jorge Garbajosa on the 2006-07 Raptors, Luis Scola on the 2007-08 Rockets and Michael Beasley on the 2008-09 Heat — played on teams with a winning record. The other 11 players were on teams that averaged 25 wins.
Looking ahead to the 2009-10 NBA season, there are a number of rookies that will get big minutes on bad teams. I’m going to rank them in order of what I perceive to be their talent plus their opportunity, because a rookie needs both to succeed in his first year. Fantasy hoopsters should take note: Rookies can be great picks on draft day, if you know which ones to pick.
1. Blake Griffin, Clippers
In the preseason, Griffin is averaging 14.7 points and 8.5 rebounds in 28.5 minutes per game. The Clippers found a taker for Zach Randolph to clear the way for Griffin to start at power forward, and he should be a fixture there for the next few years. I expect he’ll get 33-35 minutes per game during the regular season, so 16-17 points and 9+ rebounds are a reasonable expectation. From a fantasy perspective, he’s currently PF19 off the board, but will likely finish as the PF11 or better if he stays healthy. 10/27 Update:He didn’t stay healthy. Griffin will miss six weeks with a stress fracture in his knee.
The draft kicks off (or is it “tips off”?) in less than three hours, so I thought it would be fun to publish one last edition of the consensus mock draft. I pulled in mocks from SI.com and ProBasketballNews since they are current and are well respected enough for NBA.com to use in their consensus.
If three or more mocks made a pick, then it’s considered majority rules and that pick is listed in bold with the number of votes next to it in parenthesis. For those picks that have two or fewer mocks agreeing on a pick, I make the pick for them. For example, the five mocks have five different players going to the Knicks, so I made my best guess — Jrue Holiday. I went with Jennings over Flynn for the Bucks at #10 because Chad Ford reported that the Bucks are in love with Jennings’ upside. Et cetera.
A few random thoughts…
- Even though the #5 and #6 picks aren’t true consensus picks, three mocks had the T-Wolves using one of those back-to-back picks on Stephen Curry, while three mocks had the T-Wolves using the other pick on James Harden — who cares who is picked first? (Besides the players, of course. Their salary depends on it!)
- I’d be a little surprised if the Thunder drafted Rubio and kept him. Although I don’t think it would be a bad move, as Russell Westbrook is too much of a shoot-first point guard in my opinion, Westbrook’s camp has been pretty adamant that he doesn’t want to move off the ball. If OKC sees Westbrook as a point guard, then the best fit appears to be James Harden.
According to the same source that disclosed Terry Porter was about to be fired as Suns coach, the Rockets are leaning toward swapping Tracy McGrady’s expiring $22M contract, Carl Landry and Aaron Brooks for Leandro Barbosa and Stoudemire, who owns an escape clause after next season and is demanding an extension this summer to waive it.
I’m not sure what the upside is for the Suns. Stoudemire will likely opt out of his contract after the season, so they aren’t gaining any financial flexibility. They do get a couple of good young players (Landry and Brooks), but is that really enough? McGrady is a very good player when healthy, but he can’t seem to stay upright.
This would be a bold move for the Rockets, but it would leave them awfully thin at point guard. Kyle Lowry would be the only experienced PG on the roster, but Houston could use its mid-level exception to go out and get a veteran like Andre Miller or Mike Bibby, though the MLE may not be enough.
The draft is just a few days away, so it’s a good time to take one final stab at mocking the first round of this draft. I’ll continue to update the consensus draft this week, but this will be my last attempt at predicting what will happen this Thursday.
First, let’s take a look at the most recent consensus. Chad Ford released the most recent version of his mock draft today, NBADraft.net also updated today, while DraftExpress updated their mock yesterday.
Now I’ll go, pick by pick, through the first round, taking the consensus into account while also throwing in my $0.02 here and there.
#1 CLIPPERS
The Clips have shown no signs of trading away their opportunity to draft Blake Griffin. There is much fluidity with the next few picks, but the Oklahoma product is pretty much guaranteed to be the first pick. The Clippers will then (reportedly) try to move Zach Randolph or Chris Kaman, though it might be wise to move forward with Kaman and Griffin in the front court, Baron Davis at the point, and Eric Gordon and Al Thornton on the wing. Randolph is going to be tough to move. (I still can’t believe that Mike Dunleavy traded for him last season.) Pick: Blake Griffin, PF, Oklahoma
#2 GRIZZLIES
The consensus says that Hasheem Thabeet will be the pick and I don’t disagree, even though he just pulled out of a workout with Memphis due to a shoulder injury. DraftExpress thinks that Memphis will go with James Harden and move O.J. Mayo to the point, which they say is his natural position. I don’t know that they’ve given up on Mike Conley yet, so I think they will go big with this pick. Their biggest need is at power forward, so trading down and drafting Jordan Hill is a possibility. But if they stand pat, Thabeet could very well be the pick, even though he doesn’t seem to want to play in Memphis. Pick: Hasheem Thabeet, C, UConn
The Sacramento Kings were down by 35 POINTS in the middle of the third quarter and rallied to beat the Bulls, 102-98, in the biggest comeback in team history. Tyreke Evans led the Kings with 23 points and eight boards, and also dished out three assists. He’s definitely making a push for ROY — right now, it’s neck and neck with the Bucks’ Brandon Jennings. 
