The draft kicks off (or is it “tips off”?) in less than three hours, so I thought it would be fun to publish one last edition of the consensus mock draft. I pulled in mocks from SI.com and ProBasketballNews since they are current and are well respected enough for NBA.com to use in their consensus.
If three or more mocks made a pick, then it’s considered majority rules and that pick is listed in bold with the number of votes next to it in parenthesis. For those picks that have two or fewer mocks agreeing on a pick, I make the pick for them. For example, the five mocks have five different players going to the Knicks, so I made my best guess — Jrue Holiday. I went with Jennings over Flynn for the Bucks at #10 because Chad Ford reported that the Bucks are in love with Jennings’ upside. Et cetera.
A few random thoughts…
- Even though the #5 and #6 picks aren’t true consensus picks, three mocks had the T-Wolves using one of those back-to-back picks on Stephen Curry, while three mocks had the T-Wolves using the other pick on James Harden — who cares who is picked first? (Besides the players, of course. Their salary depends on it!)
- I’d be a little surprised if the Thunder drafted Rubio and kept him. Although I don’t think it would be a bad move, as Russell Westbrook is too much of a shoot-first point guard in my opinion, Westbrook’s camp has been pretty adamant that he doesn’t want to move off the ball. If OKC sees Westbrook as a point guard, then the best fit appears to be James Harden.
The draft is just a few days away, so it’s a good time to take one final stab at mocking the first round of this draft. I’ll continue to update the consensus draft this week, but this will be my last attempt at predicting what will happen this Thursday.
First, let’s take a look at the most recent consensus. Chad Ford released the most recent version of his mock draft today, NBADraft.net also updated today, while DraftExpress updated their mock yesterday.
Now I’ll go, pick by pick, through the first round, taking the consensus into account while also throwing in my $0.02 here and there.
#1 CLIPPERS
The Clips have shown no signs of trading away their opportunity to draft Blake Griffin. There is much fluidity with the next few picks, but the Oklahoma product is pretty much guaranteed to be the first pick. The Clippers will then (reportedly) try to move Zach Randolph or Chris Kaman, though it might be wise to move forward with Kaman and Griffin in the front court, Baron Davis at the point, and Eric Gordon and Al Thornton on the wing. Randolph is going to be tough to move. (I still can’t believe that Mike Dunleavy traded for him last season.) Pick: Blake Griffin, PF, Oklahoma
#2 GRIZZLIES
The consensus says that Hasheem Thabeet will be the pick and I don’t disagree, even though he just pulled out of a workout with Memphis due to a shoulder injury. DraftExpress thinks that Memphis will go with James Harden and move O.J. Mayo to the point, which they say is his natural position. I don’t know that they’ve given up on Mike Conley yet, so I think they will go big with this pick. Their biggest need is at power forward, so trading down and drafting Jordan Hill is a possibility. But if they stand pat, Thabeet could very well be the pick, even though he doesn’t seem to want to play in Memphis. Pick: Hasheem Thabeet, C, UConn
It has been about two weeks since I published my first mock draft, so it’s a good time to check back in with all the news and rumors and take another stab.
Like I said in the intro of my first mock, it’s tough for me to make predictions about what teams will do because I’m constantly thinking about what they should do. These are obviously two very different things.
For this go-around, I’m going to try something a little different. I’ve compiled the picks for four mock drafts from sites that I respect — ESPN (Chad Ford), Dime Magazine, DraftExpress and NBADraft.net — and then I’ll provide my own picks taking their picks into account, to form some sort of consensus.
With the NBA Draft Lottery behind us, we now know the exact order of the first 14 picks. The Los Angeles Clippers hit paydirt when they won the right to draft Oklahoma forward Blake Griffin with the first overall pick. The Grizzlies moved up from #6 to #2, and the Thunder moved up one spot to pick #3. The big losers Tuesday night were Sacramento and Washington, who had the best and second-best shot at the top pick, but instead fell to #4 and #5, respectively.
Mock drafts are tough for me because I’m usually thinking about what teams should do instead of trying to predict what they will do. This mock will be more predictive, but if I disagree with a selection, I’ll say so. Over the next few weeks, I’ll update this mock to jive with the latest news from around the league. It’s still very early in the process so things are very fluid. One mock has a player going #11 while another may have him going #29.
I’m just going to make picks for the first fourteen slots on the first go-round and then provide the picks of a few different mocks that I respect for #15-#30, along with a short writeup for each team.
#1 LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS
Even Mike Dunleavy can’t screw this one up. Barring something obscenely out of the blue, Oklahoma’s Blake Griffin will be the first overall pick. The Clippers could use a power forward to replace Elton Brand, and Griffin is the only “sure thing” in this draft. He’s strong, skilled and athletic, and he has an improving offensive game. He has star written all over him. Pick: Griffin, PF
#2 MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES
The Grizzlies were reportedly one of the few teams more interested in UConn’s 7’3” center Hasheem Thabeet than they were in Blake Griffin. The Grizzlies already have 7’1” Marc Gasol, so Thabeet wouldn’t fill a need like Jordan Hill, Ricky Rubio or Brandon Jennings would (assuming the team isn’t sold on Hakim Warrick or Mike Conley), but Thabeet has the potential to become a dominant defensive center along the lines of Dikembe Mutombo. But will he be willing to put the work in to become an effective post player? Pick: Thabeet, C
It was nip and tuck most of the way, but the Tar Heels got it together late in the second half to pull away over arch rival Duke, 79-71. North Carolina has almost a two-point lead over the next-best team in Jeff Sagarin’s computer rankings (which is the main way that I fill out my bracket), but I just don’t like this team to win it all. They’re sloppy with the ball, have poor spacing on offense and they missed a ton of free throws. But they have so much talent that when the game is tight in the second half, they always seem to be able to put together a run to put the game away. Really, they could win it all or they could lose in the second round to an eight- or nine-seed that plays a good, clean game.
Five Tar Heels scored in double figures, led by Tyler Hansbrough’s 17 points. Conversely, Duke was very content to walk the ball up and run its half court offense, which put the ball into the hands of Gerald Henderson, Jon Scheyer and Kyle Singler, and allowed them to go to work. Coach K really shortened his bench for this game — just three reserves played a total of 19 minutes (and they failed to score a single point).
The win should seal a #1 seed for North Carolina, and barring Duke winning the ACC tournament (coupled with an early round exit by Oklahoma or UConn), the Blue Devils are probably looking at a #2 or #3 seed. Check back tomorrow for a preview of all the major conference tournaments.
It wasn’t a good day to be a top-ranked team as both #2 Oklahoma and #3 North Carolina were upset on the road by unranked teams.
Texas 73, Oklahoma 68
The Sooners’ lost POY frontrunner Blake Griffin to a concussion and he missed the entire second half, so we need to keep this loss in perspective. He finished with just two points and three rebounds in 11 minutes, so Oklahoma got next to nothing from him. A.J. Abrams led the way with 23 points, which included 5 of 11 from three-point range. Damion James, who originally committed to Oklahoma before Kelvin Sampson’s abrupt departure almost three years ago, posted 16 points and 10 rebounds for the Longhorns. It was Texas’ 10th straight win at home against ranked opponents.
In College Park, MD, the Terps came back from a 16-point deficit to upend the Tar Heels in overtime. “General” Greivis Vasquez — I just made that nickname up, by the way — had a triple-double with 35 points, 11 rebounds and 10 assists to lead Maryland to the win. The Tar Heels got virtually nothing from their bench; Bobby Frasor, Larry Drew, Ed Davis and Tyler Zeller combined for just five points, 13 rebounds and one assist in 52 minutes of playing time. The Terps kept Tyler Hansbrough under control (11 points on 4-12 shooting) and held North Carolina to under 38% from the field for the night. The Terps also had 18 assists to just five for the Tar Heels. Maryland is now in position for a NCAA tournament berth after starting 2-4 in ACC play. They’re now 6-6 in conference and will host Duke and Wake Forest over their final four regular season games.
This loss has to be worrisome for North Carolina fans. This is supposed to be a deep, talented team, but its bench produced next to nothing. In the end, both of these teams are still likely to be top seeds come tournament time, but I’d feel a lot better about penciling in the Sooners to make the Final Four than I would the Tar Heels.
Let me be clear — the call I’m about to discuss was NOT the reason that Duke lost the game last night. The Tar Heels played terrific in the second half and the Blue Devils simply did not. But the call in question indirectly set up North Carolina’s run.
Check out the video of Kyle Singler elbowing Tyler Hansbrough.
The first shot of it is at the 0:05 mark in real time. It’s tough to see, but you get the sense for how difficult it would be for Singler to stop his elbow after it slips off the ball. You can also hear that the whistle blew after the elbow, so he still had the right to fight for the ball.
The first slow mo shot is at the 0:25 mark. Singler is clearly trying to rip the ball out from in between Hansbrough’s legs and his hand slips off the ball on the third attempt. He’s not thinking about what might be behind him and Hansbrough isn’t really doing anything that would warrant an elbow to the face. Plus, this scrum occurred just 16 seconds into the second half. There really wasn’t enough game time for Singler’s temper to get to the point that he’d intentionally elbow something in the face. Remember, most of these shots are in slow motion, so while it might seem like a player could stop his arm when it slips off the ball like that, in reality it’s moving much faster. It was an accident.
Dick Vitale and the officials overreacted. Singler was called for a technical, so North Carolina got two free throws. At that point in the game, Duke led 52-44, but more importantly, it was Singler’s third foul. After North Carolina had almost tied it up, Singler picked up his fourth with 12:55 to play and had to come out of the game. That’s when the Tar Heels started to pull away. When he returned a few minutes later, he couldn’t challenge shots on the defensive end like he normally would have, and that led to a couple of North Carolina buckets.
In the end, the Tar Heels won, 101-87, so it’s clear that this call wasn’t the deciding factor in the game. The Blue Devils had plenty of time to overcome that technical, but they shouldn’t have been put in that position in the first place.
This is a great win for North Carolina. They now have the inside track for an ACC regular season championship, which usually results in a #1 seed in the NCAA tournament. In order for Duke to get back to that level, they’ll have to shrug off this 2-3 stretch and string together some wins, including a victory on March 8 in Chapel Hill.
Hats off to Tyler Hansbrough and Danny Green who managed a 4-0 record at Duke during their careers at North Carolina. That’s a truly impressive accomplishment.
This is how a Duke/North Carolina matchup is supposed to be. Both teams are ranked in the top five, they’re tied for first place (at 7-2) in the ACC, and the winner will have the inside track to the conference championship. The game takes place at Cameron Indoor Stadium, a venue that even Duke haters will admit has set the standard for home court advantage. Duke was one of the first schools (if not the first) to put the student body front and center and that atmosphere has played a huge part in the Blue Devils’ success over the past two decades. (Though it should be noted that, with a win, Tyler Hansbrough could go 4-0 at Cameron in his career, so North Carolina has owned Coach K Court of late.)
He’s a 6′2″ sophomore combo guard from Indiana who is averaging 20.6 points and 4.1 assists per game. Last night, in a marquee matchup with UNC’s Ty Lawson, Teague posted 34 points and four dimes to help #4-ranked Wake Forest pull out a 92-89 win over the #3-ranked Tar Heels. Teague completely outplayed Lawson — nine points, five assists, six rebounds — which makes one wonder why Lawson is projected to go in the mid-first round of the NBA Draft while Teague isn’t even on NBADraft.net’s draft board. Wait, there he is at #14…hmm…he wasn’t there last night when I checked. Does that mean, according to NBADraft.net, that Teague’s performance against North Carolina raised his stock from undrafted free agent to borderline lottery? It would appear so. (For the draft geeks, here is DraftExpress.com’s profile for Teague. They aptly compare him to Aaron Brooks and Louis Williams.)
Danny Green led the Tar Heels with 22 points, hitting 3 of 4 of his three-point shots. Tyler Hansbrough finished with 17 points, but only shot 3 of 12 from the field. The Demon Deacons’ big men did a nice job of keeping him from catching the ball in the post.
Wake Forest is a team to be reckoned with in the ACC. In addition to Teague, they have Al-Farouq Aminu (a 6′9″ lottery prospect) and James Johnson, who are both projected to go in the first round of the NBA Draft. Seven-footer Chas McFarland (who posted 20 points and nine boards last night) anchors the middle.
Wake Forest has a pair of tough road games coming up against Boston College and Clemson before coming home to host Virginia Tech and Duke.
It’s time to look ahead to 2009 and play a little Nostradamus.
Last year, we predicted that God would anoint the “Devil-free” Rays World Series Champions (ding!), that Brett Favre would play another year or two (ding! – sort of), that Isiah Thomas would be canned (ding!), and that Kobe would be playing for a new team by the trade deadline…
Granted, that last one didn’t come true, but how were we supposed to know that the Grizzlies would trade Pau Gasol to the Lakers for an unproven rookie and a bag of peanuts? Our occasional inaccuracy isn’t going to keep us from rolling out another set of predictions – some serious and some farcical – for 2009 and beyond, including President Obama’s plan for a college football playoff, Donovan McNabb’s new home and the baseball club most likely to be 2009’s version of the Tampa Bay Rays.
Read on, and in a year, we guarantee* you’ll be amazed.
Michael Vick will play for the Oakland Raiders next season.
Once NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell allows suspended quarterback Michael Vick to re-enter the league, let’s be honest, there’s really only one team that will take a shot on the convict: the Oakland Raiders. Sure, the Raiders would have to possibly give up a draft pick because Vick will still technically be property of the Falcons, but with Matt Ryan on board, Atlanta would probably be willing to give Mikey up for a bag of Cool Ranch Doritos…snack size. With Vick on board, JaMarcus Russell could shift to tight end or full back or offensive tackle or something. Or, Vick could play wide receiver! Or running back! Think of the possibilities! The Oakland Raiders will be the most unstoppable team in the league! That is, of course, until Vick gets the itch for his old hobby. – Anthony Stalter
The Nationals and Pirates become the official AAAA teams of their respective divisions.
After finishing at or near the bottom of the division since the franchise’s move from Montreal, Major League Baseball executives analyze the entire Washington Nationals player system and conclude that they have no chance of fielding a competitive team in the near future. In the boldest decision of his tenure, Commissioner Bud Selig demotes the team’s Major League roster to AAAA status, a phrase long used by baseball personnel to describe players that are too good for the minors but not good enough for the majors. In an added twist, Selig designates that the team’s assets are fair game for all four remaining teams in the National League East, as a means of creating parity. In order to keep the number of teams even in each league, Selig also downgrades the Pittsburgh Pirates, losers of 94 or more games since 2005, to AAAA status as well. It will be six weeks into the regular season before an NL East team claims any of these former Pirates or Nationals. – David Medsker
Barack Obama will have a plan in place for a college football playoff by 2016.
He has already spoken out twice in favor of an eight-team playoff format for college football. Granted, there are more pressing concerns for the President-elect – the economy, the war in Iraq and a forward-thinking energy policy, just to name a few – but there’s no reason that Obama can’t appoint a “Playoff Czar” to get the conference presidents and the bowl organizers together to hash out a system that works for everyone. Are the bowls worried about losing money? Rotate the semifinals and the final amongst the four bowl cities. Are the conferences worried about losing money? They shouldn’t be – the ratings for an eight-team playoff would dwarf the ratings the current system is getting. And better ratings means more money. This is something that 85%-90% of the population can agree on, and that doesn’t happen often. Mark our words – President Obama will make it happen, especially if he gets a second term. – John Paulsen
