The draft is just a few days away, so it’s a good time to take one final stab at mocking the first round of this draft. I’ll continue to update the consensus draft this week, but this will be my last attempt at predicting what will happen this Thursday.

First, let’s take a look at the most recent consensus. Chad Ford released the most recent version of his mock draft today, NBADraft.net also updated today, while DraftExpress updated their mock yesterday.

Now I’ll go, pick by pick, through the first round, taking the consensus into account while also throwing in my $0.02 here and there.

#1 CLIPPERS
The Clips have shown no signs of trading away their opportunity to draft Blake Griffin. There is much fluidity with the next few picks, but the Oklahoma product is pretty much guaranteed to be the first pick. The Clippers will then (reportedly) try to move Zach Randolph or Chris Kaman, though it might be wise to move forward with Kaman and Griffin in the front court, Baron Davis at the point, and Eric Gordon and Al Thornton on the wing. Randolph is going to be tough to move. (I still can’t believe that Mike Dunleavy traded for him last season.)
Pick: Blake Griffin, PF, Oklahoma

#2 GRIZZLIES
The consensus says that Hasheem Thabeet will be the pick and I don’t disagree, even though he just pulled out of a workout with Memphis due to a shoulder injury. DraftExpress thinks that Memphis will go with James Harden and move O.J. Mayo to the point, which they say is his natural position. I don’t know that they’ve given up on Mike Conley yet, so I think they will go big with this pick. Their biggest need is at power forward, so trading down and drafting Jordan Hill is a possibility. But if they stand pat, Thabeet could very well be the pick, even though he doesn’t seem to want to play in Memphis.
Pick: Hasheem Thabeet, C, UConn

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Earlier in the day, I wrote about how Chad Ford is hearing that Ty Lawson is shooting up some draft boards, and now John Hollinger’s Draft Rater (where he takes college statistics and a few other metrics to predict a player’s production in the NBA) says that he’s the top player in this draft. Yes, he’s even ahead of Blake Griffin.

Lawson, who is coming off an electric performance in leading North Carolina to the championship, grades out highly for several reasons: Although he’s short for a point guard, his shooting numbers (47.1 percent on 3-pointers), strong assist rate and microscopic turnover ratio (9.1, first among point guard prospects) all point to him as an NBA keeper.

The Draft Rater puts Lawson slightly ahead of Griffin for first, but this doesn’t mean a team should take Lawson first. The standard error in the projections for point guards is higher than it is for big men, which means random noise could be putting Lawson ahead just as easily as on-the-court performance. If the consensus is that Griffin is the better player, I don’t think Lawson’s statistical record alone is strong enough evidence to refute it. Additionally, we’ve heard questions about Lawson’s work ethic and injuries.

But the rating is emphatic enough for me to say Lawson should be at the top of the college point guard ladder, ahead of Jonny Flynn, Jrue Holiday, Jeff Teague & Co. (If you’re wondering about Ricky Rubio, I’ll have more on him next week.)

Hollinger’s Draft Rater isn’t error-proof but it’s not a bad second opinion when trying to pick a player out of a group of two or more.

Or when you’re trying to avoid a bust…

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On his draft buzz blog, Chad Ford lists a few guys that may crash the top 10 next week.

North Carolina’s Ty Lawson has taken some abuse during the draft workout process, but it sounds as though teams are starting to come around. Lawson was, without question, the most productive point guard in the draft. Teams are skeptical because of his size and his style of play. But he’s been great in several recent workouts according to sources and apparently is in the mix with the Knicks at No. 8 if guys like Curry and Hill are off the board. Lawson also is still on the board at No. 10 to Milwaukee and the Pacers at No. 13 and the Sixers at No. 17 are also giving him a serious look. If Lawson ends up crashing the top 10, that would probably push either Holiday or Flynn out.

Louisville’s Terrence Williams is another player who is a potential lottery crasher. The Warriors have been high on Williams all year and will seriously consider him at No. 7. And Williams also seems to have seriously moved into the mix with the Nets at No. 11 and the Bobcats at No. 12. In fact, sources say that Williams has been invited back to Charlotte for a second time. One league source says that he’s leapfrogged Duke’s Gerald Henderson on Larry Brown’s board.

The final guy to watch is Henderson, who is getting a serious look in New York, Toronto and Charlotte. In each case I think there are players ahead of him on each team’s draft boards, but under certain scenarios I think he could go 8 to 12. However, if DeMar DeRozan is on the board at No. 9, I think he’s going ahead of Henderson in Toronto. And, if the source on Williams is to be believed, it’s possible that Henderson could slide out of the lottery.

Regular readers know I’ve been high on Lawson throughout this entire process despite all the negative feelings towards his game. Given his production and performance at North Carolina, I think he’d be a steal for a team in the middle of the first round looking for a point guard. The Pacers (#13), the Sixers (#16) and the Hawks (#19) all would be good fits. I’d be surprised if he cracked the top 12, as the Bobcats (#12), the Nets (#11), the Bucks (#10) and the Raptors (#9) already have their point guards. (Though Milwaukee may be in the market if they are dumb enough to let Ramon Sessions walk.)

As for Williams, he’s not much of a scorer, but he can play defense, distribute the ball and rebound really well for a wing. I’d still take Henderson over Williams because he is just as athletic and has proved that he can improve his offensive game. Williams has the better handle and is the better passer. There is a lot of margin for error when trying to predict where these guys will go because this draft is relatively thin at shooting guard. The only true shooting guard in the top 10 is Harden. Curry, Evans and Holiday are considered to be combo guards, and DeRozan looks like a swingman. Then there are Henderson, Williams, Budinger and Ellington to round out the first round.

It has been about two weeks since I published my first mock draft, so it’s a good time to check back in with all the news and rumors and take another stab.

Like I said in the intro of my first mock, it’s tough for me to make predictions about what teams will do because I’m constantly thinking about what they should do. These are obviously two very different things.

For this go-around, I’m going to try something a little different. I’ve compiled the picks for four mock drafts from sites that I respect — ESPN (Chad Ford), Dime Magazine, DraftExpress and NBADraft.net — and then I’ll provide my own picks taking their picks into account, to form some sort of consensus.

Let’s get on with it…

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I don’t know how he did it, but Chad Ford convinced 15 NBA GMs/executives to rank the top 13 point guards in the draft. If I were running a team and he asked me to do this, I would have told him to go jump off a cliff. (Or I’d have my secretary rank the players by how cute she thinks they are and pass that off as my list.)

Anyway, here are the rankings, along with an average ranking. Ford’s column has a lot more detail on each player.

1. Ricky Rubio (avg 1.9)
2. Stephen Curry (2.4)
3. Jonny Flynn (3.0)
4. Jrue Holiday (3.8)
5. Tyreke Evans (4.5)
6. Jeff Teague (6.5)
7. Brandon Jennings (6.8)
8. Eric Maynor (8.0)
9. Ty Lawson (9.5)
10. Patrick Mills (10.0)
11. Darren Collison (11.0)
12. Nick Calathes (12.0)
13. Toney Douglas (12.5)

I’m surprised that Stephen Curry moved up so much. Prior to the combine, there were still some who questioned whether or not he was even a first round talent. But apparently he put those concerns to rest. Besides, if you can shoot the ball like he can (and aren’t a complete stiff in other areas of the game), there’s a place for you in the NBA.

Brandon Jennings is hurting himself by skipping the combine and the Reebok Eurocamp. He’s going to need to go head to head with some of these players if he wants to stick in the lottery. Conversely, Jonny Flynn is impressing in his interviews and teams are happy to see that he measures over six-foot in shoes. He’s basically the same size as Chris Paul. So is Ty Lawson, but he continues to fall. I still think whoever gets him in the mid- or late-first round is going to have a starter-caliber point guard in a couple of seasons.

Florida’s Nick Calathes raised a few eyebrows when he decided to sign a three-year deal with Greek team Panathinaikos, but since he already has dual citizenship and a closer look at the contract reveals that he’d need to go in the lottery to match the financial windfall he’s going to enjoy overseas, it’s probably a good decision for the young man.

The NBA draft combine started yesterday and here are some of the rumors and observations coming out of Chicago (from Draft Express and ESPN’s Chad Ford).

James Harden might go #3 to Oklahoma City or #5 to Washington. Sacramento #4 is a no-go because the Kings already have a star shooting guard in Kevin Martin.

James Harden for example has elected not to conduct any interviews with teams drafting outside the top five, canceling a scheduled interview at the Westin Hotel with the Cleveland Cavaliers for example. He also reportedly will not be conducting any competitive workouts with anyone anywhere in the draft process. A source close to him tells us he feels very good about the possibility of being selected by Oklahoma City or Washington, and for right now is not planning on visiting the Minnesota Timberwolves.

Most teams we’ve spoken to in Chicago are indicating that they believe Oklahoma City is indeed leaning towards picking Harden. They also believe the Thunder are not enamored with Rubio at all, as they are committed to developing Russell Westbrook at his natural position—point guard.

This seems high for Harden, who had a great season but completely disappeared in the NCAA tournament. He is a very skilled scorer and he should thrive if open shots are created for him by a playmaking teammate. I don’t know how good he is at getting his own shot.

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With the NBA Draft Lottery behind us, we now know the exact order of the first 14 picks. The Los Angeles Clippers hit paydirt when they won the right to draft Oklahoma forward Blake Griffin with the first overall pick. The Grizzlies moved up from #6 to #2, and the Thunder moved up one spot to pick #3. The big losers Tuesday night were Sacramento and Washington, who had the best and second-best shot at the top pick, but instead fell to #4 and #5, respectively.

Mock drafts are tough for me because I’m usually thinking about what teams should do instead of trying to predict what they will do. This mock will be more predictive, but if I disagree with a selection, I’ll say so. Over the next few weeks, I’ll update this mock to jive with the latest news from around the league. It’s still very early in the process so things are very fluid. One mock has a player going #11 while another may have him going #29.

I’m just going to make picks for the first fourteen slots on the first go-round and then provide the picks of a few different mocks that I respect for #15-#30, along with a short writeup for each team.

#1 LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS
Even Mike Dunleavy can’t screw this one up. Barring something obscenely out of the blue, Oklahoma’s Blake Griffin will be the first overall pick. The Clippers could use a power forward to replace Elton Brand, and Griffin is the only “sure thing” in this draft. He’s strong, skilled and athletic, and he has an improving offensive game. He has star written all over him.
Pick: Griffin, PF

#2 MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES
The Grizzlies were reportedly one of the few teams more interested in UConn’s 7’3” center Hasheem Thabeet than they were in Blake Griffin. The Grizzlies already have 7’1” Marc Gasol, so Thabeet wouldn’t fill a need like Jordan Hill, Ricky Rubio or Brandon Jennings would (assuming the team isn’t sold on Hakim Warrick or Mike Conley), but Thabeet has the potential to become a dominant defensive center along the lines of Dikembe Mutombo. But will he be willing to put the work in to become an effective post player?
Pick: Thabeet, C

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It’s official: Ty Lawson and Wayne Ellington are forgoing their remaining college eligibility and declaring for the 2009 NBA Draft.

Lawson was arguably the best point guard in the country this season and was named ACC Player of the Year. He gutted through a swollen toe in the NCAA tournament, guiding the Tar Heels to a national championship (and f——g my bracket in the process). NBADraft.net has Lawson going #15 (to Detroit, which seems odd considering Joe Dumars has hitched his wagon to Rodney Stuckey), while DraftExpress has him slated for the 11th pick (New Jersey — another odd pairing, considering Devin Harris’ stellar play this season). Both mocks have Lawson behind Ricky Rubio and Brandon Jennings amongst point guards. Jonny Flynn, Tyreke Evans, Eric Maynor and Stephen Curry are ranked ahead of Lawson in one mock or the other.

I haven’t seen much of Jennings, but I think I’d favor Lawson over the other five right now. He has everything you want in a point guard — good vision, quickness, speed, strength, shooting — except for size, and Chris Paul (and others) have proved that you don’t need to be tall to succeed in today’s NBA.

As for Ellington, I’m surprised to see that NBADraft.net has him going 11th to New Jersey. Draft Express projects him to go with the 30th pick to the Cavs. When I first heard the news that he was going pro, my assumption was that he’d be a second round pick that might sneak into the first round with a series of good workouts. He shot the ball brilliantly in the NCAA tournament and that kind of clutch performance can really boost a player’s stock, but I’d be shocked if he becomes a lottery pick. Wings that can score are a dime a dozen in the NBA, so unless a player has a quality that really makes him stand out — i.e. Gerald Henderson’s athletic ability — they usually end up being late-first round or second round picks. We’ll see.