The NBA offseason is by no means over, but the lion’s share is behind us, so it’s a good time to take a look back at a few of the…um…let’s say “questionable” decisions of the summer. Here are my Top 10, in no particular order. Feel free to add to the list if I missed something.

1. Trevor Ariza plays spiteful hardball…and loses.
Let’s get this straight — the Lakers offered Ariza the same deal he was getting on the open market, and he refused since the Lakers could have offered more, but didn’t? Um, okay. David Lee (the agent, not the Knicks forward) says that Ariza wanted to go somewhere where he’d be “appreciated.” Lee overestimated the market for his client, and the Lakers quickly moved on to acquire Ron Artest. Now instead of playing for the world champs, Ariza is stuck in Houston on a team that faces a very uncertain future. Lee now says that Ariza turned down a deal worth $9 million more, but still picked Houston. It sounds to me like he’s just trying to save face.

2. Grizzlies acquire Zach Randolph.
Once the Clippers traded for Randolph (and his toxic contract) last season, I thought the bar for NBA general managers had hit a new low thanks to Mike Dunleavy and his wily ways. But Dunleavy proved that he wasn’t the dumbest GM in the league when he convinced the Memphis Grizzlies to take on the final two years Randolph’s contract at the tune of $33.3 million. Remember that $25 million or so of cap space that the Grizzlies were going to have next summer? Yeah, that’s down to about $8 million with this brilliant move. Just when it looked like Chris Wallace was going to rehab his image after the Pau Gasol trade — Marc Gasol panning out, trading for O.J. Mayo — he goes and does this. Sigh.

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Yes? Like the majority of Laker fans, I really liked Trevor Ariza. In his previous five NBA seasons of virtual anonymity, Ariza never seemed to fit into the chemistry with his teams. Chalk it up to inexperience or the adjustment from college to the pros. Enter the 2008-9 season, and Ariza blossoms, playing in every regular season game, and averaging nearly nine points, four rebounds, and two steals in every one of them. Come the playoffs and he’s easily the most integral player outside of Kobe Bryant and Pau Gasol, providing consistently strong defense and clutch steals. While the numbers mentioned above may not “wow” anybody, remember that Ariza has always been considered an average player, and that last season could be considered his breakout year. Is it all that strange that he should ask for a multi-year deal at about $6 million a season? No, it’s not, considering his role on a championship team, but in this market you can’t fool yourself into thinking the already penny-pinching Lakers will bite.

Perhaps large-market teams are getting smarter, refusing to award talent with big contracts after one successful season. Prior to last season, Ariza hadn’t made much of an impression in the NBA, and then out of nowhere he’s starting in the NBA Finals. And where did that shot come from? Given the economic climate, I think it would’ve been a wise decision to give Ariza a one-year deal, worth a little more than what he was making the previous season. If he could then replicate his success, then by all means, secure the guy for the next few seasons. But this didn’t happen, and maybe this is to the fault of Ariza’s agent, David Lee, who seemed to attack the Lakers from the onset. While Ariza was valuable to the Lakers, value is measured in worth. There’s an old story about a woman who unknowingly bought a Van Gogh at a garage sale. She used it as a window shade and it became all faded from the sun. She even cut off a piece of the painting to make it fit. When it became obvious what she had, all these experts came to investigate. When they asked her why she had cut the painting she responded, “It was just a little piece of the sky.” (Thanks to Tom Waits for the anecdote.) Value is obviously subjective, and obviously Ariza wasn’t as valuable to the Lakers as he thought. He was a piece to their championship puzzle, but one that was apparently replaceable in the mind of Lakers GM Mitch Kupchak. The Rockets, however, saw much worth in Ariza, to the tune of five years and $33 million.

In a surprising sequence of events, Ron Artest has agreed to a three-year deal with the Los Angeles Lakers, while Trevor Ariza is headed to Houston with a five-year deal. Both contracts are of the mid-level variety, which are expected to start at about $5.8 million per season.

J.A. Adande writes…

Just as telling is the Lakers’ decision to go with Artest instead of younger Trevor Ariza. It shows they’re putting everything into these next three years and not worrying too much about the future. Ariza would have wanted a five-year contract; Artest was willing to come for three. The end of Artest’s contract coincides with the reported opt-out clause for Bryant. We don’t know whether Kobe will choose to leave in 2012, but we do know this: He’ll be 33 that summer, turning 34 in August. The three years with Artest probably represent Bryant’s last stages of physical superiority over the opposition. He’ll still be ahead of the pack in knowledge and determination, but we’ve already seen some slipping in his athletic ability and it will only decline from here.

So the Lakers are thinking short-term and trying to squeeze in a couple more championships right now. Lakers GM Mitch Kupchak was even willing to increase his roster’s average age and let one of his best acquisitions walk away, two things general managers are generally loath to do.

Artest gives the Lakers the same qualities as Ariza — perimeter defense and toughness — plus the ability to get his own shot, and a dash of crazy. Ariza wound up in Artest’s old spot in Houston, where he’s actually a better fit. With Yao Ming’s career on pause — at best — the Rockets have to position themselves to be good in a couple of years, perhaps by bringing in a major free agent in 2010 and/or having Yao return from treatment on his feet that might hinder him for the better part of two seasons. Amazing how quickly a team that seemed on the rise in these playoffs now finds itself retooling.

We’ll never know if Ariza was just playing hardball when he expressed frustration that the Lakers wouldn’t offer more than the mid-level because the team called his bluff and moved on. I like this signing for the Rockets, who were originally interested in Orlando big man Marcin Gortat. But when the “Polish Hammer” reportedly made a verbal agreement to join the Mavs, the Rockets moved on to the 24-year-old Ariza.

Artest is a little nutty, and he has the potential to sabotage the Lakers’ season, but it’s not like the team is championship-caliber because they have great chemistry. They don’t. They have more talent than anyone, and when Ariza became irritated with the Lakers’ unwillingness to go over the mid-level, they quickly moved on to their backup plan. Artest will accept his role in L.A. and should fit in just fine, at least defensively. But three years is a long time for him to behave; I expect he’ll have at least one dust up before it’s all said and done.

Per ESPN…

The 24-year-old swingman, who played a key role in the Lakers’ run to their 15th NBA championship, is on the verge of leaving the club, sources close to the situation said on Wednesday.

With at least five teams pursuing Ariza, the Lakers are currently unwilling to pay him more than the $5.6 million mid-level exception.

Cleveland is making a hard push for Ariza, and the Cavaliers’ coaching staff was speaking with him on Wednesday. While Cleveland can only offer the mid-level as well, Ariza’s disappointment with the Lakers’ stance has moved other suitors ahead of his current team.

Ariza’s position doesn’t make a whole lot of sense to me. The Lakers traded for him and gave him the opportunity to flourish, yet he isn’t willing to stay even though they’re willing to match the best offer he’s getting (up to the mid-level). He apparently feels that the Lakers’ unwillingness to give him more than his market value is a slap in the face.

I suspect his camp is just leveraging these “bad feelings” to get the Lakers to raise their offer a bit, which they probably will.

According to a report by SI.com, Kobe Bryant has decided not to terminate the final two years of his contract and will remain a Los Angeles Laker instead of becoming a free agent.

Now the Lakers and Bryant’s agent will negotiate a contract extension. If they somehow cannot agree, he would earn $23 million next season and could opt out next June.

However, Bryant has spent his entire 13-year career with the team, winning four NBA championships and on June 19 he said, “I’m not going anywhere. I know I ain’t going nowhere, so it’s just a waste of our breaths just talking about it.”

Bryant has urged the Lakers to bring back unrestricted free agent forwards Trevor Ariza and Lamar Odom, who played key roles in the team’s recent run to its 15th NBA title.

Bryant will make a guaranteed $47.8 million over the next two years and could earn another $90 million with an extension. As the SI.com article notes, the Lakers can now turn their attention on retaining Ariza and Odom.

Check back for TSR NBA guru John Paulsen’s take on this subject later.

Pistons not willing to pony up for Boozer?

The Pistons would love to sign Carlos Boozer should he decide today to opt out of the final year of his contract with the Jazz and become a free agent.

However, if Boozer opts out, he would leave $12.6 million on the table in Utah. Thus, there is a good chance Boozer, as has been widely speculated, would look to start his next contract at $14 million or $15 million.

If that is the case, the Pistons most likely would walk away.

Just because a guy asks for a contract starting at $14-$15 million doesn’t mean that the Pistons have to give it to him. If Boozer opts out, the Pistons are his most likely landing spot, so they set the market, not him. If he wants an unreasonable deal, they shouldn’t walk away, they should make an offer and give him some time to find a better one. Chances are that he won’t, and he’ll end up taking Detroit’s deal.

Assuming Boozer does not dramatically reduce his asking price, the Pistons would go after Bucks forward Charlie Villanueva.

Villanueva will turn 25 in August and is coming off his best season. He averaged 16.2 points and 6.7 rebounds for the Bucks.

The Pistons could conceivably sign Gordon and Villanueva and still have money left over to pursue re-signing Antonio McDyess.

I estimate Gordon’s value to be about $9 million, though he has turned down bigger offers from the Bulls in the past. Villanueva will probably get lots of MLE offers, so the Pistons would likely have to trump those to convince him to play in Detroit instead of Cleveland (or for another contender). So if Detroit signs both, expect them to pay at least $15.5-$16.0 million combined. That doesn’t leave a lot of space for McDyess.

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Once the draft is over, the next step of the NBA offseason is the free agency period. Negotiations start July 1, but players have to wait until July 8 to actually sign on the dotted line. Due to the economy, this promises to be an interesting summer, as more franchises seem to be trying to cut payroll than add talent. There are eight teams with significant cap space this summer, and there’s no guarantee that they’ll be willing to use it. Teams that are over the cap can add good players in two ways: 1) they can sign a player to the Mid-Level Exception (MLE), which will be around $5.8 million per season (and can be split up between two or more players), or 2) they can work out a sign-and-trade with the player’s old team.

Below is a list of the top unrestricted free agents this summer. These are players who can sign with whomever they like. They’re ranked in order of total value, which is based on overall talent, age, injury history and cost.

For each player, I’ll provide his position, age, Player Efficiency Rating (PER) and an estimate of what kind of contract he’s likely to sign.

1. Carlos Boozer, PF (27 years-old)
PER: 17.28
At press time, Boozer hasn’t officially opted out, but he is expected to. He can play another year for $12.3 million, but he thinks he’s due for a raise, and I don’t think he’s going to get the kind of raise he’s expecting. Boozer is one of the top 20 players in the league when healthy, but it’s that whole “when healthy” part that’s the problem. Over the past five seasons, he has missed a third of his team’s games. At 27, he’s in his prime, and assuming he has the right supporting cast, I think he can be one of a twosome or threesome on a championship-caliber team. Boozer may not get a raise this summer, but he could get long-term security. The Pistons, Raptors, Kings and Thunder all have the space to make a run at him, but Sacramento and OKC might consider themselves too far away from contending to add a big piece like Boozer. The Pistons seem like the best fit, but they are rumored to have more interest in Ben Gordon. There’s always the possibility that another team works out a sign-and-trade with Utah, but I don’t think anyone is going to give him a max deal, not in this economy.
Value: $12.0 – $13.0 million per year

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The Lakers didn’t play all that well, but they performed well enough to get a win (103-97) on the road in the playoffs, and that is no small feat. Denver had control for much of the game, and with Carmelo Anthony on the bench, the Nuggets built a seven-point lead at the end of the third quarter. But a sorry five-minute stretch to start the fourth quarter was Denver’s undoing. Check out these nine possessions:

11:41 J.R. Smith misses 25-foot three point jumper
10:49 Linas Kleiza misses 5-foot jumper
10:27 Chauncey Billups misses 26-foot three point jumper
10:11 Chauncey Billups makes technical free throw
9:59 Chris Andersen misses layup
9:44 J.R. Smith misses layup
8:53 Nene Hilario misses 9-foot two point shot
8:22 Trevor Ariza blocks Carmelo Anthony’s 15-foot jumper
8:18 Kenyon Martin misses layup
7:39 Pau Gasol blocks Chris Andersen’s layup

That’s one point in the first four and a half minutes of the fourth quarter. By the time they scored again, they were trailing by one. Carmelo Anthony went cold and the Nuggets simply struggled to score. Chauncey Billups launched some ill-advised shots (and hit a few of them), but it was J.R. Smith who seemed to be the go-to man down the stretch.

For the Lakers, Trevor Ariza and Pau Gasol played well in the closing minutes, but down two with about a minute to play, it was Kobe Bryant who hit a huge three pointer to put his team ahead. Denver turned the ball over (again) on the inbounds pass, and again, it was Ariza who made the big defensive play. At that point, the Lakers just had to knock down their free throws, and they did. With the win, the Lakers wrested back control of the series. Game 4 is of the “must-win” variety for the Nuggets.

Like most NBA fans (outside the greater Houston area), once the news broke that Yao Ming was going to miss the rest of the playoffs with a foot injury, I wrote off the Rockets. How could they possibly keep pace with one of the top two teams in the league without their best player?

Since the injury, the Rockets have taken two of three from the Lakers, and if Kobe and Co. were truly championship worthy, they would have gone on the road and won Game 4 or Game 6. Laker apologists will probably just say that their team will still win in Game 7 and they’ll go on to win the championship, but really, they shouldn’t be in this position in the first place. Anything can happen in a single game, and sometimes, no matter what you do, it’s just not your night. What if the Rockets collectively catch fire like they did in Game 4? What if Kobe has one of his 5-for-20 days? Or what if Pau Gasol goes down with an injury that knocks him out of the game?

By letting the Rockets get back into the series, the Lakers have no margin for error. That’s the whole point of a seven-game series — it’s designed so that poor luck and bad nights don’t send a true champion home early.

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The NBA free agency period starts July 1st, and as that date approaches I’ll preview this year’s free agent class in more detail. But for now, I’d like to take a look at which teams have the cap flexibility to be major players in free agency this summer. (Mind you, just because a team has cap space, it doesn’t necessarily mean that they’ll use it. Just sayin’.)

Not familiar with the NBA salary cap? Here’s a quick primer…

1. The cap for the 2008-09 season was $58.7 million. The general consensus is that the cap will stay flat or decrease slightly. We’ll assume it sticks at $58.7 million.

2. If a team is over the cap, the only free agents they can sign are their own, unless they elect to sign a player to the mid-level exception (~$5.8 million per season), the bi-annual exception (~$2.0) or to a minimum contract. (The bi-annual exception may not be used in two consecutive years.)

3. If a team is under the cap, they can sign any free agent they want as long as they do not exceed the cap. They can also take on salary via trade up to the cap, so a team like the Grizzlies (with almost $20 million in cap space) could conceivably trade their first round pick to the Suns for Amare Stoudemire or to the Raptors for Chris Bosh.

Here’s a list of the bigger names in the free agent pool this summer:

Unrestricted: Carlos Boozer, Ben Gordon, Ron Artest, Lamar Odom, Andre Miller, Shawn Marion, Jason Kidd, Hedo Turkoglu, Allen Iverson, Mehmet Okur, Rasheed Wallace, Mike Bibby, Anderson Varejao, Grant Hill, Kyle Korver, Trevor Ariza, Brandon Bass, Chris Andersen, Zaza Pachulia, Chris Wilcox and Drew Gooden

Restricted: David Lee, Paul Millsap, Ray Felton, Josh Childress*, Marvin Williams, Glen Davis, Ramon Sessions, Charlie Villanueva, Nate Robinson, Leon Powe, Hakim Warrick, Linas Kleiza, Jarrett Jack and Shannon Brown

* It appears that if Childress does return to the NBA, the Hawks still hold his rights, so he would be a restricted free agent.

There are eight teams that project to have more than $5.8 million (the value of the mid-level exception) in cap space this summer:

Memphis Grizzlies
Projected Cap Space: $19.7 million
Memphis has been reluctant to spend for several years now and is probably one of the franchises that’s struggling the most in the current economy. I lived in Memphis for three years, and given its small size and overall lack of wealth, I always thought that it would struggle to support a professional sports team. With a core of Rudy Gay, O.J. Mayo and Marc Gasol, the Grizzlies have to feel pretty good about what they have at off guard, small forward and center. The big decision this summer is what to do with restricted free agent Hakim Warrick. When dealing with bad teams, numbers can be deceptive, because no matter what, somebody has to score and rebound, right? Warrick’s PER (16.91) is #24 amongst power forwards, so ideally he’d be coming off the bench for a playoff team. The Grizzlies projected cap space assumes they make the qualifying offer to Warrick ($3.0 million). Memphis is one of those teams that could really use the services of a Carlos Boozer, David Lee or Paul Millsap, but in this economy, are the Grizzlies willing to make that kind of a commitment? They could try to make a run at Chris Bosh or Amare Stoudemire next summer, but the odds are long that either guy would want to play for the Grizzlies.

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