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NFL Week 16 Primer Late Games

Here’s a quick Week 16 preview for all of the late games with playoff implications in the NFL this week:

Tarvaris JacksonFalcons at Vikings, 4:15PM ET
Who would have thought this game would have so much meaning when the season started? Minnesota needs just one more victory to win the NFC North and put the Chicago Bears out of their misery. They’ll start Tarvaris Jackson again at quarterback this week as Gus Frerotte continues to recovery from a back injury. With a lot of help from Adrian Peterson and the running game, Jackson has been absolutely outstanding since subbing for Frerotte two weeks ago and has thrown five touchdown passes in the last six quarters. The Vikings’ defense took a hit this week when it was discovered that run-stuffer Pat Williams would miss the next 2-6 weeks due to injury. That should help Michael Turner and the Falcons’ dynamic running game stay on track, although they’ll still need a huge contribution from rookie quarterback Matt Ryan, who struggled last week against Tampa. Atlanta needs to win out and hope Dallas or Tampa lose one of their two remaining games. And considering they host the Rams next week, their playoff hopes may reside in beating the Vikings. Can the Falcons’ defense contain Peterson and force Jackson to beat them through the air? Or will the Vikings continue to build momentum as they make a playoff push?

Jets at Seahawks, 4:05PM ET CBS
The Jets are clinging to a slim lead in the AFC East as they currently hold tie-breakers over the Dolphins and Patriots in the division. However, they’re 0-3 on the West Coast this year and a trip to Seattle is never fun for any team come December. This game will also mark Mike Holmgren’s final home game, so you can expect the Seahawks to be ready to play. Still, this is a team the Jets should beat, especially if they consider themselves a legit playoff squad. Seattle’s defense has been brutal this year and as long as Brett Favre can keep from turning the ball over, NY should come up with a big road win.

Bills at Broncos, 4:05PM ET CBS
All the Broncos have to do is win and they clinch the AFC West crown. They won’t have the fortune of facing J.P. Losman, though, as Trent Edwards will resume his starting quarterback duties after missing the past couple weeks due to injury. Denver has been consistently inconsistent this season, especially at home where they currently post a 4-3 record. Buffalo is a disaster, but they did give the Jets a game last week at the Meadowlands and Edwards might (emphasis on might) give the offense a boost. But as long as Denver’s run defense can contain Marshawn Lynch, they should (emphasis on should) be fine.

Eagles at Redskins, 4:15PM ET FOX
The Redskins were officially eliminated from playoff contention last week after an embarrassing loss to the Bengals but you’re crazy if you don’t think they would love to play spoiler. Led by quarterback Donovan McNabb and a stingy defense, the Eagles have played inspired football over the past month and proved two weeks ago in New York that they could win a huge road game. Philly needs to win their final two games to have a shot at a postseason berth and it won’t come easy. After playing in Washington this Sunday, they host the Cowboys next week, who will also be fighting for their playoff lives. If Jim Zorn continues to play things tight to the vest with his play calling, Philly defensive coordinator Jim Johnson might have a field day calling blitzes and confusing quarterback Jason Campbell. But first and foremost, the Eagles have to stop the run or else the passing game will open up and it might allow Zorn to get more creative than he has been of late. Washington’s defense has been solid all year but can anyone slow down McNabb and Brian Westbrook? As long as the Redskins are motivated to ruin the Eagles’ postseason dreams, this should be a great game.

Panthers at Giants, 8:15PM NBC
The battle for the No. 1 seed in the NFC is on the line this week in East Rutherford as the G-Men host the suddenly Super Bowl-caliber Panthers. These are two teams heading in opposite directions as the Giants have lost two straight while Carolina is winners of two in a row. The Panthers have been dominating opponents with their running game over the past two weeks, but they’ll get a huge test this Sunday against a stingy New York front seven. Still, the Giants’ offense has struggled without Plaxico Burress and a healthy Brandon Jacobs, so losing three in a row isn’t out of the question. They need to do a better job of protecting Eli Manning or else the road to the Super Bowl in the NFC will run through Carolina this year. Jacobs is expected to play so that should help, but it remains to be seen how effective he’ll be. And can anyone stop the Panthers’ Steve Smith?

Trent Edwards captain of Buffalo’s sinking ship

Bills-BrownsUltimately, one player doesn’t make or break a team in terms of wins and losses, but Trent Edwards is getting awfully close to being the exception to the rule.

After throwing three interceptions in the first half of the Buffalo Bills’ 29-27 loss to the Cleveland Browns on Monday night, Edwards played like a scared schoolgirl the rest of the game. He constantly threw check down passes to Marshawn Lynch instead of going downfield and rarely attempted a pass more than 10 yards.

But it’s not fair to hang the Bills’ loss solely on Edwards. Rian Lindell missed a field goal in the closing seconds that probably would have won the game. Fred Jackson coughed up the ball in Cleveland territory. The defense allowed Jerome Harrison to bust off a 72-yard touchdown run on the first play of the fourth quarter.

It wasn’t just Edwards that lost the game, but he had more than enough opportunities to make plays and he didn’t because he was too scared. His offensive line gave him loads of time and replays showed that he had open receivers to throw to all game, but he just couldn’t pull the trigger. Have you ever seen a quarterback so afraid to throw downfield? His confidence is totally shot in the wake of Buffalo’s four game losing streak.

The Bills were a nice early season surprise, but their playoff hopes are fading fast.

Conversely, this was a nice win for Cleveland. Not only did Brady Quinn get his first win of his career, but the Browns also didn’t joke in the end. They finally played four quarters and while it got hairy in the fourth quarter, they finally closed a team out and won a tight ball game. (Of course if Lindell makes the field goal, all of this is a moot point and we’re talking about another massive Browns’ collapse.)

Bills need a win to save season

Trent EdwardsThe phrase “must win” is a term widely overused in sports – especially in football. After all, isn’t every win a “must win?”

That said, the Buffalo Bills are essentially in a must win situation when they host the Cleveland Browns on perhaps the worst Monday Night Football matchup of the year. (I’m still trying to figure out why I’m getting ready to watch the Browns play on Monday night for the second time in just over a month.)

The Bills are 5-4 and currently sit two games back of the Jets in the AFC East after losing thee straight games. In those three games, Buffalo has turned the ball over a whopping nine times and all three defeats came against divisional opponents. They can ill afford to lose to a 3-6 Cleveland team starting a second year player (Brady Quinn) at quarterback.

If they want to end their skid, Buffalo can start with not turning the ball over. Quarterback Trent Edwards has had success driving the offense into opponents’ territory, but he has been way too careless with the football. The Bills had a magnitude of success earlier in the year because Edwards was playing mistake-free, but lately he’s turned into the 2008 version of Marc Bulger.

Quinn was solid in his first career start last week, but dropped passes and a poor defensive effort in the second half allowed Denver to sneak out a win. This is a Cleveland team that has been in most games, but often finds a way to lose in the end. You’d think a team like Buffalo – whose playoff aspirations are on the line – would stomp an opponent like the Browns from start to finish, but something tells me this going to be a tight game throughout.

A loss and the Bills can essentially kiss their playoff hopes goodbye. The Jets, Pats and Dolphins all own better records right now in the division and the Colts and Ravens are a game up on Buffalo for the two Wild Card spots. The Bills could really make a statement tonight and turn around their season.

Never bet against Bill Belichick and the Patriots following a loss

BenJarvus Green-EllisI don’t care if Tom Brady is playing quarterback or if it’s Rumplestilskin – Bill Belichick and the Patriots are tough to beat following a loss.

Case in point: Patriots 20, Bills 10. The final score looks close, but Buffalo added a touchdown late. New England was in command of this game the entire way as rookie BenJarvus Green-Ellis rushed for 105 yards and a touchdown. I don’t know if any team is better than the Pats are coming off a loss – especially one when they didn’t execute very well as was the case in their defeat at Indy last Sunday night.

After beating the Chargers to get to 5-1, the Bills have lost three in a row and have fallen back in the AFC East race. Turnovers have absolutely killed this team and one has to wonder if their fast start was nothing but a fluke considering they beat the Seahawks, Raiders, Rams and the suspect Jaguars and Raiders. But things get easier for them over the next couple weeks as they face the Browns, Chiefs and 49ers. Things look bleak for Buffalo, but the playoffs are still very much in the picture.

Week 10 NFL Primer

Donovan McNabbSunday’s Best: Giants (7-1) at Eagles (5-3)
If you don’t like a good ‘ol fashion NFC East battle than you don’t like America. The Giants need a win to stay two games up on the Redskins in the division while the Eagles need a victory just to keep pace. Neither team has huge injury concerns so we’re about to see the best each squad has to offer. The G-Men swept the series between these two teams last year and sacked Donovan McNabb 12 times, which tied an NFL record. But the Eagles have won three straight and have averaged 31 points per game in those victories. Keeping McNabb healthy and upright has been the key, which will again be a main concern for the Eagles against a stout Giants’ pass rush. Perhaps no team in the league plays better on the road than Tom Coughlin’s bunch, but Philadelphia is always a tough environment to play in and the Giants will look to neutralize Jim Johnson’s blitz-happy defense by running the back effectively with Brandon Jacobs. Neither team turns the ball over very much, so this game will likely come down to which squad forces their opponent out of their game plan first.

Upset Watch: Seahawks at Dolphins, 1:00 PM ET
An easier upset to call might be Detroit over Jacksonville with how bad the Jaguars have looked the past two weeks. But I’m willing to bet the Jags can handle Daunte Culpepper much better than they did Ryan Fitzpatrick last Sunday. There’s everything to love about the Dolphins and nothing about the Seahawks, but that’s exactly why I like Mike Holmgren’s bunch this week. Typically teams that travel from the West to East don’t fare well, but the Hawks were just in Florida to play the Bucs so they’re used to the travel preparations. Miami has been the talk of the NFL the past two weeks, which means they’re in uncharted territory. They’re due for a letdown and while the Seahawks are missing six starters and have zero offense, the underdog has covered the last six games involving the Dolphins. Okay, so Miami might win. But the Hawks cover the 9-point spread after falling behind early.

Rex GrossmanIntriguing matchup: Titans at Bears, 1:00 PM ET
Even though pundits have been impressed with the Titans’ start, you get the feeling that everyone is waiting for them to stumble eventually. They aren’t blowing teams out by any means and narrowly escaped defeat last week at home against Green Bay. Chicago starts a pissed off Rex Grossman this weekend and while that normally spells trouble, he did rally the Bears last week against Detroit. Word is that it’s supposed to snow in Chicago this Sunday, which only plays into the Bears’ hands. They’re so banged up on defense that the Titans still have the advantage, but don’t be surprised if this is the week Tennessee is finally tripped.

Other notable games:
Saints (4-4) at Falcons (5-3), 1:00 PM ET
This game is going to reach the mid-50’s or 60’s by its conclusion. Even without Reggie Bush, the Saints’ offense is a juggernaut, but they’ve struggled defensively and will be without DE Charles Grant for the rest of the year due to injury. Rookie Matt Ryan has been nothing short of phenomenal this year and has the Falcons thinking playoffs. Teams have forced him to beat them through the air, which he has. This is one of the more underrated rivalries in the league and a sure bet for a shootout this weekend.

Bills (5-3) at Patriots (5-3), 1:00 PM ET
Bill Belichick should be ashamed of the way he game planned for the Colts last week and will no doubt be looking to smoke division rival Buffalo to get back on track. The Bills, meanwhile, have lost two games in a row because Trent Edwards can’t keep the turnovers low. The Jets are right in the mix too, but a win in this game is huge for the division.

Colts (4-4) at Steelers (6-2), 4:15 PM ET
Indy got back on track last week with a win over the Patriots, now they have to show that they can be consistent. The Steelers thumped the Skins on the road last Monday, but are coming off a short week and could be without Ben Roethlisberger. Can Byron Leftwich lead Pittsburgh to another victory? Or has the return of Bob Sanders lifted the Colts?

Bills starting to show their youth

Trent EdwardsThe Buffalo Bills have been one of the more surprising teams this season, so it’s easy to forget how relatively young they still are. But their 26-17 loss to the Jets on Sunday is an example of how the Bills are starting to show their inexperience.

With the Bills up 7-3 early in the first quarter, Darrelle Revis stripped quarterback Trent Edwards, which New York eventually turned into a field goal. Edwards then drove Buffalo into the red zone on their next possession, but his pass intended for Roscoe Parrish was intercepted by A Elam and returned 92-yards for a touchdown.

The Bills never recovered after that as Brett Favre and Thomas Jones expanded on the lead and eventually walked away with a sound victory.

This was the second game in row where Edwards struggled with turnovers and it again cost the Bills a chance to build on their early season success. Edwards is a good young quarterback, but he has lapses in focus and the Bills will go nowhere this year until he stops being so careless with the football. He needs to rely more on the help around him and not try to do too much.

This was an impressive win for the Jets. They survived last week against Kansas City despite Favre’s brutal play and if they continue to get great defensive efforts like they did Sunday, there’s no reason to think that NY can’t continue to compete in the AFC East.

Midseason NFL Power Rankings: Contenders & Pretenders Edition

Kerry CollinsThe NFL is mixed bag of emotions every week in terms of how teams play from Sunday to Sunday, but it’s fair to at least take an early look at the contenders and pretenders.

Below is a midseason power ranking of all 32 teams. Along with a ranking, each team gets slapped with a “contender,” “pretender,” or “What time does April’s draft start?” label as well.

We’re heading into Week 9. I fully expect that these rankings will mean absolutely nothing by Week 10, but screw it – let’s have some fun.

Midseason Power Rankings

1. Tennessee Titans (6-0)
It’s kind of hard not to rank the only undefeated team left in the NFL at the No. 1 spot, but the Titans also deserve it. Their offense isn’t flashy outside of Rookie of the Year Candidate RB Chris Johnson, but QB Kerry Collins has provided enough savvy veteran play to allow the defense to win ballgames. And speaking of the defense, it might be the most clutch unit in the NFL season.
Midseason Status: Contender

2. New York Giants (6-1)
What the hell happened in Cleveland two weeks ago? Eli Manning looked like…well…he looked like Eli Manning pre-postseason 2007 and the defense clearly had no idea how to stop Derek Anderson and that high-powered Browns’ offense (read the sarcasm please). Still, the defending champs have four things going for them right now that make them the best team in the NFL: A quarterback, a running game, a defense that gets after the quarterback and they can win on the road.
Midseason Status: Contender

3. New England Patriots (5-2)
People are just going to think I’m putting the Pats this high because they’re the Pats. But the reason why I’m putting the Pats this high is because Bill Belichick is on a mission to prove people wrong. And once he sets his sites on proving people wrong, nothing can stop him. Not even Tom Brady on the sideline.
Midseason Status: Contender

DeAngelo Williams4. Carolina Panthers (6-2)
Their win against Arizona in Week 8 was unimpressive to say the least, but good teams find ways to win even when they don’t play that well. I think this team has a ton of fraud in them, but it’s hard to argue with how well the defense is playing and how much of a different team they are with Jake Delhomme under center. If they can keep running the ball as well as they have, Carolina will win the NFC South.
Midseason Status: Contender

5. Pittsburgh Steelers (5-2)
The Steelers should have beaten the Giants last Sunday – plain and simple. They had control of the game but a botched snap and some failed protection for Ben Roethlisberger cost them a win. I still think the offensive line is going to be an issue all season, but every time you think Pittsburgh is going to take a step back and start stumbling, they prove that they can win tight games with key players on the sidelines.
Midseason Status:
Contender


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Chad Pennington has been solid for young Dolphins

Chad PenningtonThe knock on Chad Pennington his entire career is that he has a noodle-arm and can’t complete passes over 15 yards. But in the Dolphins impressive 25-16 win over the Bills on Sunday, Pennington proved that there is something attached to his right shoulder.

Pennington completed 22 of 30 passes for 314 yards and a touchdown against an underrated Buffalo defense and his 46-yard pass to Ted Ginn on the first play of the game set up a Anthony Fasano touchdown to put Miami up 7-0.

I was definitely skeptical of the Pennington signing in the offseason because I felt the Dolphins weren’t giving their young signal callers a chance to compete. But Pennington has been great for a young Miami squad and at 3-4 they’re certainly in the playoff hunt in the AFC, albeit a long shot.

The Bills really blew an opportunity to stay ahead of the Patriots in the AFC East. Trailing 17-16 at the start of the fourth quarter, Trent Edwards was intercepted, which Miami eventually turned into a field goal. On their next possession, Edwards fumbled and although Miami didn’t turn the turnover into points, they pinned the Bills at their own three-yard line and then sacked Edwards for a safety. Then down 25-16 with less than four minutes to play, Robert Royal fumbled, which allowed the Dolphins to run out the clock.

This was a disappointing step back for a Bills team that was building momentum after beating the Chargers last week.

Fantasy Fallout, Week 7: QBs

Trent Edwards isn’t going to single-handedly win any fantasy games, but he isn’t going to lose any, either. Outside of the Arizona game where he was knocked out with a concussion, Edwards has thrown for at least one TD in each game and is averaging 238 yards passing…Drew Brees (231 yards, INT) had a bad outing, but it’s probably more of an aberration than a trend. Brees’ schedule the rest of the way is pretty favorable…Ben Roethlisberger (216 yards, 2 TD) looked pretty sharp and is back on track to finish in the top 10 at QB…The Dallas offense did not seem sharp with Brad Johnson (234 yards, TD, 3 INT) under center, so the Cowboys will probably try to get Tony Romo back under center as soon as they can…Marc Bulger (173 yards, TD) looked pretty good and should make for a decent backup going forward.

Are the young guns taking over fantasy football?

It seems like there are a number of middle- to late-round young QBs that are thriving this year in fantasy football. Here are eight guys that are 26 years-old or younger and are all in the top 20 in total fantasy points scored in 2008. This list doesn’t even include other sub-30 guys like Eli Manning (27), Matt Schaub (27), Tony Romo (28), Drew Brees (29) and J.T. O’Sullivan (29), who are also tearing it up.

Most of these players were available in the 7th round or later in a typical fantasy draft, and one probably wasn’t drafted at all. I listed their current ranking in parenthesis next to their name and calculated what kind of numbers they’re currently on pace to finish with. Fantasy points are calculated using Antsports’ High Performance Scoring System.

Without further ado, here’s the list (in order of current fantasy ranking)…

(Note: For the “on pace” stats, “29/11″ represents 29 TD and 11 INT)

1. Aaron Rodgers (QB2)
Age: 24
On pace for: 3952 pass yards, 29/11, 280 rush yards, 8 rush TD, 23.7 FPPG

Rodgers has stepped into a very tough situation and has performed beyond even the most optimistic of expectations. Sure, the Packers are only 3-3, but Rodgers isn’t directly responsible for any of the team’s losses. He is confident in the pocket and has a strong and accurate arm. Moreover, he has a nice set of wheels to create more time to throw or to take off and try to get a first down himself. Most of us thought he’d have to take over for Brett Favre after #4 hung ‘em up (for good), and even that would have been a tough situation. But to deal with all that went on this summer and still perform so admirably once the season started – that’s truly impressive. Looking ahead, he has the Colts, Titans, Vikings and Bears, so the upcoming schedule is not easy. His schedule gets quite a bit tougher going forward, so it’s going to be interesting to see if he can carry his good start through the entire season.


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