Last night, the Spurs were down Tim Duncan and Tony Parker, who both sat with ankle injuries. But it didn’t matter because San Antonio had Manu Ginobili, who dropped 36 points on the unsuspecting Raptors. He shot 8-15 from the field, but hit 6-8 from long range and 14-16 of his free throws. He also posted eight assists, four rebounds and four blocks in the Spurs’ 131-124 win.

The Raptors have to be disappointed with the loss. They shot 59% from the field and 65% from long range, but were outrebounded by nine and committed five more turnovers than the Spurs. Considering that San Antonio was without Duncan and Parker, that shouldn’t happen.

This was a big win for the Spurs, who avoided a 2-4 start…thanks to Ginobili.

This year, we’re doing a division-by-division preview with quick-hitting analysis for every team in the league. If a franchise is a legitimate championship contender, I’ll focus on what stars have to line up for a title run. If a team is a playoff “also-ran,” I’ll identify the weaknesses that have to be shored up via trade, free agency or draft over the next couple of seasons to make it a contender. If a team is likely to miss the playoffs, I’ll take a look at the salary cap, and provide a blueprint for how the team should proceed in the near future to get back in the postseason. At the end of each divisional preview, I’ll provide some (random) thoughts for the fantasy hoopsters out there.

For each division, I’ll pick the order of finish. You’ll also see the team’s league-wide preseason rank in parenthesis.

Boston Celtics (5)
Normally, the return of a healthy Kevin Garnett would be enough to thrust the Celtics back to contender status, but with the way the rich got richer this summer in terms of talent, GM Danny Ainge knew he had to improve his team, so he went out and signed Rasheed Wallace to give the C’s another big body up front. If everyone is healthy, minutes are going to be a problem, as Glen Davis and Kendrick Perkins deserve to play, but one might get squeezed out by Garnett and Wallace. In the backcourt, the big question seems to be the overall attitude of Rajon Rondo, who is running out of time to sign an extension. It is unlikely that he and the Celtics will come to terms by the end of the month as the two sides are reportedly far apart in perceived value. Marquis Daniels was brought in to shore up the backcourt, so the Celtics will once again head into the season with a deep and talented roster. But can everyone stay healthy? If Garnett, Rondo, Paul Pierce and Ray Allen are all feeling good come playoff time, the Celtics will be a serious threat to make the Finals.

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I think we can file this one under “obvious,” since the Magic didn’t re-sign Turkoglu, but it’s interesting nonetheless…

Per Real GM…

In a conversation with Blazers’ general manager Kevin Pritchard, [Magic GM Otis] Smith told Pritchard that he had “caught a break” with Turkoglu signing elsewhere and made it clear the Blazers “weren’t missing out on anything,” sources tell RealGM’s Alex Kennedy.

Smith didn’t feel that Turkoglu was worth the five-year, $50 million Portland was ready to spend.

Turkoglu is 30. If anyone thinks that he’s going to be worth $11-$12 million when he’s 34 or 35 and at the back end of this contract, I’d like to have some of what they’re smoking. But both the Blazers and the Raptors knew that in order to get Turkoglu to agree to a deal, it had to be a long-term contract.

Smith didn’t say this publicly, so I’m not going to blast him for throwing a former player under the bus. But it still seems odd that he’d be badmouthing Turkoglu — one of the main reasons the Magic made an appearance in the Finals — to other GMs around the league. When Jameer Nelson went down, Turkoglu took over the ballhandling duties and acted as a point forward. He ran countless pick and rolls with Dwight Howard, dished out a bunch of assists and hit several huge shots. Simply stated, Orlando wouldn’t have made it to the Finals without him.

Is he worth $10 million a year heading into his thirties? Probably not. But he’ll probably earn his keep for the first few years of that contract, and that’s all the Raptors are worried about right now.

In a small but somewhat strange move, the Golden State Warriors have traded Marco Belinelli for Devean George.

Belinelli, 23, played sparingly as a rookie and at the start of last season, but other injuries forced the Warriors to play him consistently and he had a 13-game stretch where he averaged 16 points and shot better than 50 percent in eight of those games. He also made 46 of his last 113 3-point attempts (40.7 percent.).

Other than maybe being in Don Nelson’s doghouse, I can’t think of a reason why the Warriors would make this trade. Devean George is 31 and has a career average of 5.6 points and 3.2 rebounds per game. His PER hasn’t been above 10 in the last three years and it has never been above 12 in his entire career. Why give up a prospect like Belinelli, who showed some promise in his rookie season? In 15 games in December, he averaged 14.1 points, 3.2 assists and 2.6 rebounds, and shot 38% from long range. His overall shooting percentage (44%) wasn’t bad for a rookie off guard.

George’s contract is expiring this year, but the Warriors had a team option on Belinelli next summer that they didn’t have to exercise. Golden State is projected to be over the cap, so Belinelli’s 2010 salary ($2.4 million) would have cost the team almost $4.8 million with the luxury tax. I guess they just decided to cut bait.

This is a head-scratcher.

As part of a complicated four-team trade, it looks as if Shawn Marion is about to become a Maverick.

The deal, according to sources, calls for the Mavericks to acquire Marion and Kris Humphries from Toronto and Greg Buckner from Memphis, with Marion to receive a five-year contract worth an estimated $39 million. Buckner has had two previous stints with the Mavericks but is likely to be released, sources said.

The Grizzlies will land Jerry Stackhouse from Dallas and a substantial cash payment to buy out Stackhouse’s contract. Only $2 million of Stackhouse’s $7.25 million salary next season is guaranteed, as long as he is waived by Aug. 10.

The Raptors will receive Devean George and Antoine Wright from the Mavericks, while also preserving their $5.9 million mid-level exception for the coming season by turning their acquisition of Turkoglu — who is getting a five-year deal worth an estimated $53 million — into a sign-and-trade as opposed to an outright signing. Assembling the trade this way could also enable Toronto to re-sign Carlos Delfino, after it appeared that the Raptors would have to renounce Delfino to help make room for the Turkoglu signing.

The Magic, meanwhile, were motivated to join in the trade because their participation, as opposed to merely letting Turkoglu walk, will create a valuable trade exception they can use in future deals worth around $7 million.

Mark Cuban is arguably the most polarizing owner in the league, but he isn’t afraid to try to make his team better. Whether it’s an ill-advised Jason Kidd-for-Devin Harris swap, the mid-level signing of Marcin Gortat or working out this sign-and-trade to land Marion, Cuban has always been willing to do what’s necessary to win.

With these moves, Dallas can start Marion at small forward next to Dirk Nowitzki and shift Josh Howard to shooting guard, with Sixth Man Award winner Jason Terry staying in a bench role. The Mavericks also believe that they will have a strong small-ball unit when they elect not to play Gortat or Erick Dampier, featuring Howard at small forward, Marion at power forward and Nowitzki at center.

$8 million per year for five years is a lot to pay for a 31-year-old, but Cuban knows that Nowitzki’s window is closing and the Mavericks’ time is now. Dallas now has a formidable starting lineup — Kidd, Howard, Marion, Nowitzki and Gortat — that has features four All-Stars, with Terry, J.J. Barea, Matt Carroll and Dampier coming off the bench. It will be interesting to see if the Mavs are able (or willing) to retain Brandon Bass, who is a free agent this summer.

When I estimated the extensions that the big names from the class of 2006 could potentially sign this summer, I pegged Andrea Bargnani at $7-$8 million per season. It turns out I underestimated his value to the Raptors.

The deal, according to NBA front-office sources, would span five seasons starting in 2010-11 and earn Bargnani an estimated $50 million.

Bargnani did go through something of a transformation in his third season, averaging 15.4 points on 45% shooting from the field and 41% from long range. The previous year, he shot 39% from the field and less than 35% from deep, so he made a big jump, efficiency-wise. His PER (14.66) is still below average, mainly due to his suspect rebounding for a seven-footer (5.3 rpg) and lack of assists (1.2 apg).

The bottom line is that Bargnani will have to continue his career trajectory to earn the contract that the Raptors just awarded him.

Last night, it pretty much seemed like a done deal that Hedo Turkoglu was going to sign with the Blazers, but now ESPN is reporting that the Turkish forward is going to instead sign with the Toronto Raptors.

The decision left the Blazers livid and was a huge coup for the Raptors, who have promised Turkoglu all of the salary-cap space they will have from renouncing their rights to Shawn Marion, Anthony Parker and Carlos Delfino, which will likely add up to a starting salary in the $10.1 million range, with eight percent annual raises.

A source close to the discussions said Turkoglu had given a verbal commitment to the Blazers on Thursday, then alerted the team on Friday morning that he was having second thoughts. By mid-afternoon Pacific time, the Blazers were told the deal was dead and Turkoglu would be signing with the Raptors.

Turkoglu will make about $3 million more over the life of the contract than he would have made in Portland, but a bigger reason for his change of heart, a source told ESPN.com, was his desire to play in Toronto, a more international and cosmopolitan city — one with a large Turkish population — and his familiarity with the Eastern Conference after having spent the last five seasons with the Magic.

It seems like a dangerous thing to delve inside the mind of Hedo Turkoglu, but I’m going to try. First, he sets his price tag so high that the team that made him a star — the Orlando Magic — can’t or won’t afford to keep him. So he’d rather play for the up-and-coming Blazers than try to repeat as Eastern Conference champs in Orlando. That’s a decision I could understand. I didn’t think that he’d get the $10 million per season that he was looking for, but the Blazers ponied up, and they look like a team that will be at or near the top of the West for the next several years. But to shun Portland to play for an also-ran that seems destined to lose its best player (Chris Bosh) for a few extra million doesn’t make a whole lot of sense.

I suppose it’s tough to turn down $3 million, but when you’re talking about $53 million or $50 million, I don’t see much of a difference. Personally, I’d want to play for a contender, and knowing how elusive chemistry and dynasties can be, I probably would have taken the four-year, $35 million extension from the Magic. I can’t blame Turkoglu for taking the extra $15 million and heading to Portland, but I do question the reasoning behind shunning the Blazers for the Raptors.

Maybe he’ll help the Raptors get back to the playoffs. Maybe he’ll be the difference that will convince Bosh to re-sign. Or maybe the Raptors will flounder as a fringe playoff team and he’ll eventually regret this decision as he watches Orlando and Portland play deep into the postseason year after year.

It looks like Orlando Magic are open to the idea of entering luxury tax territory (for the first time) if it means they can keep the Orlando core together by re-signing Hedo Turkoglu.

Magic President and chief executive officer Bob Vander Weide told FanHouse that ownership likely would approve paying the luxury tax for the first time if it means keeping the nucleus of this team together.

“We’ve always avoided the tax, but winning has a crazy effect on people,” Vander Weide said. “The [DeVos] family (which owns the team) is having fun right now. I don’t think anyone has a willingness to stay in tax for 10 years, but to go in for a few years to ride this out, I don’t think that’s threatening to our family short term.”

Re-signing Turkoglu, who is expected to exercise his option to become a free agent, likely would push them into the luxury tax. Vander Weide also said the Magic will be trying this summer also to obtain a true power forward to help Dwight Howard with the rebounding load.

Turkoglu, who would make $7.1 million next season if he remained in his current contract, is expected to command a long-term deal in free agency worth an estimated $10-$12 million annually.

Other than reaching the NBA Finals, the biggest reason the Magic have dropped their reluctance to pay the luxury tax is that they will be moving into a new arena at the start of the 2010-11 season, which Vander Weide believes will translate into an additional $20 million more in revenue each year.

Despite overpaying for Rashard Lewis, the Magic are actually in pretty good shape payroll-wise. Entering the 2010 season, they only have five players under contract — Lewis, Howard, Jameer Nelson, Mickael Pietrus and Courtney Lee. While Lewis salary ($18.0 million) is pretty ridiculous, the salaries of Howard ($15.2 million), Nelson ($7.7 million) and Pietrus ($5.3 million) are all reasonable given what they bring to the table. Howard is a superstar making superstar money, the All-Star Nelson is a bargain at under $8 million per sesason and Pietrus is proving to be a very good defender and underrated scorer on the wing.

Turkoglu has arguably been the Magic’s most consistent player in these playoffs and deserves a raise. The Magic need to be careful, however, because he’s already 30, so he may only be able to play at this level for two or three more seasons (if that). They don’t want to get locked into a five- or six-year deal that they’ll be regretting in a few seasons. $10-$12 million per season sounds fair, but the Magic would be wise to see what the market will bear.

There are five teams that currently project to have the cap space to make him an offer of more than $10 million per season: Detroit, Memphis, Oklahoma City, Sacramento and Toronto. We can probably cross off Memphis, Sacramento and OKC, as they are not likely to add a pricey 30-year-old as they continue to rebuild. Besides, the Thunder already have a pretty good small forward in Kevin Durant. Likewise, the Pistons have Tayshaun Prince, so they probably wouldn’t be interested. That leaves Toronto. The Raptors might want to make a big splash in free agency in the hopes that they can surround Chris Bosh with enough talent to convince him to stay next summer. Toronto just traded away Jason Kapono, which freed up another $1.2 million in cap space. That gives the Raptors roughly $12 million to play with, so they could make life difficult on the Magic if they target Turkoglu in free agency.

However, if Toronto doesn’t express any interest, the Magic would be wise to try to get Turkoglu to sign a three- or four-year deal averaging around $8-$9 million per season. It is doubtful that any other teams with cap space are going to come that strong.

Wake up! There’s been a trade in the NBA!

The Toronto Raptors and Philadelphia 76ers have completed the first trade of what is being widely forecast as an active month for NBA transactions by agreeing to swap sharpshooting guard Jason Kapono for rebounding specialist Reggie Evans.

The Sixers targeted Kapono — two-time winner of the NBA’s Long Distance Shootout at All-Star Weekend and a career 45.4 percent marksman from 3-point range — to address their well-chronicled lack of outside shooting since dealing Kyle Korver to Utah in December 2007.

The Raptors, meanwhile, potentially address two needs with the trade, adding Evans’ physicality to a roster short on that quality last season and creating a bit of extra salary-cap space for a crucial summer before Chris Bosh becomes an unrestricted free agent in July 2010.

Toronto will save about $1.2 million this season and $1.6 million next season due to the difference in the two players’ salaries. This will give the Raptors a little extra cap space to up the ante for a free agent or two over the next two summers.

Kapono is a career 45% three-point shooter and will bring a dimension to Philadelphia that was seriously lacking last season. Other than Donyell Marshall (who only played 7.6 minutes per game), the Sixers didn’t have a player shoot better than 35% from long range.

The Boston Globe is reporting that the New York Knicks are looking to work a sign-and-trade deal for center-forward David Lee in another salary cap cutting move towards the 2010 free agent market.

Much of the speculation centers around a deal involving Lee and the #8 pick in the upcoming NBA Draft going to Memphis for the #2 pick and backup center Darko Milicic. This would allow the Knicks to draft international star point guard Ricky Rubio, who has made it known that he wants to play in a major United States sports market.

The Spaniard has a complicated, multi-million dollar contract with his European team, DKV Joventut Barcelona. Before June 30th, the club will grant Rubio’s freedom from his contract for $6.6 million (NBA teams are allowed only to contribute a maximum of $500,000 to buy out a contract of a foreign player), and after June 30th, the price tag expands to $8 million.

Other trade rumors include the Knicks packaging Lee, forward Jared Jeffries and the #8 pick to Toronto for forward Chris Bosh or to Phoenix for disgruntled power forward Amare Stoudemire.