Every Sunday evening throughout the 2011 NFL season I’ll compile quick-hit reactions from the day that was in football. I vow to always overreact, side with sensationalism over rationalism, and draw conclusions based on small sample sizes instead of cold, hard facts. It’s the only way I know how to write…

DIDN’T SEE THAT COMING…

- Who knew that with the Bears in New Orleans to take on the Saints and Cam Newton hosting the defending champs that Raiders-Bills would be the most entertaining early game on Sunday? I’m pretty sure neither defense dressed for the second half but this game had it all: a major come-from-behind victory, plenty of big plays (that TD Denarius Moore caught from Jason Campbell was siiiick), and a last-minute touchdown pass on fourth down (see the photo above as Scott Chandler scores the game-winner). It’s actually fun to watch Ryan Fitzpatrick run Buffalo’s dare-I-say-high-powered offense.

- I was impressed by Cam Newton in his pro debut (how could you not be?), but I fully admit that I expected him to fall flat on his face against the Packers. Naturally he comes out and throws for over 400 yards again and is now on pace to pass for 6,832 yards this season. He’s also completing over 60% of his passes and had he not turned the ball over three times, I’m not so sure the Panthers don’t beat the Packers today. I don’t know if this is beginner’s luck or we’re seeing the next great thing at quarterback but I shudder to think what he’ll do once the game actually starts slowing down for him.

- Let me get this straight: the Ravens rack up 35 points on the Steelers’ defense but couldn’t muster more than a touchdown and two field goals against the Titans? Some were concerned that the Ravens would come out flat after their impressive win over the Steelers last Sunday and “some” were right. Matt Hasselbeck took advantage of a depleted Baltimore secondary all afternoon, completing 30 of his 42 pass attempts for 358 yards and a touchdown. Hasselbeck was helped by the fact that the Ravens wanted nothing to do with pressuring him as they finished with zero sacks.

- Jaguars win a gutsy 16-14 game over the Titans in their season opener, then fail to show up today and are blasted by the Jets, 32-3. Titans look hapless in Jacksonville last week, then came out on Sunday and romp a Raven team that destroyed the Steelers last week. The NFL is screwy, I tell ya.

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Pre-season predictions are rather silly, aren’t they? I mean really, we haven’t seen any of these teams play and yet we’re all ready to predict who will appear in the Super Bowl. Ridiculous. Just ridiculous, I say.

But damn it they’re fun. You can’t deny that. If we as fans don’t partake in a little pre-season shenanigans then I ask you, what are we doing with our lives?

My regular season and Super Bowl predictions won’t be released until next week, but here’s a little something to whet your appetite in the meantime.

Ten Predictions for the 2011 NFL Season:

1. The Eagles won’t win the Super Bowl.
I’m not a big believer in Michael Vick. I used to be. I used to believe that he could walk on water and was going to lead the Falcons to not one, but about 16 Super Bowls when he was in Atlanta. Then I realized the guy was completely fine with not putting in the work to raise his game to the next level. I realize he was complacent and was fine with being an extraordinary athlete but not a championship-caliber quarterback. I don’t know Michael Vick personally so maybe I have him all wrong. And maybe he really has grown as a player and a person in Philadelphia. Hey, Andy Reid is 10-times the coach Jim Mora was, so maybe all Vick needed was better guidance. That said, I don’t think Vick will win a Super Bowl this season with the Eagles. He’s never done well when the expectations were high and if you want proof of that, look at his 2005 and 2006 seasons in Atlanta. (Pundits were more than willing to hitch their wagon to Vick back then, just as they are now.) There were no expectations for him at the start of last season because it was Kevin Kolb’s team. But now it’s his team and I don’t think he’ll see the Eagles through to the end. This prediction may look foolish for most of the regular season, but let’s see what happens come January and February.

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Per the Houston Chronicle…

Asked if Romo would be ready for the Cardinals, Jones said: “In my opinion, he will be.”

“I want to do anything we can to win those games. (The decision) will be based on what gives us the best chance to win,” Jones said. “And, when he’s ready to go, he’s going to be ready. I shouldn’t be concerned about additional injury to his shoulder.”

“And, when he’s ready to go, he’s going to be ready.”

Wow, profound.

I’ve advised fantasy owners to feel comfortable cutting Romo, especially when the Cowboys were truly eliminated from the playoff hunt. Even if they were in position to make the playoffs, why would you replace Jon Kitna, who would obviously be playing well in that scenario?

I think it’s irresponsible to bring Romo back to play two games. As recently as last week, the quarterback was experiencing considerable pain, and collarbone injuries are known to recur, so why risk it? Romo isn’t a rookie — he doesn’t need every single snap from an experience standpoint, so why rush him back?

Regardless, if Jones has his way, Romo will be under center in Week 16 in a great matchup with the Cardinals. If you have a roster spot, go ahead and stash him for a week or two and see how things play out. He might be useful.

Even if the Cowboys were somehow able to get back into the NFC playoff picture, it appears as though Tony Romo wouldn’t be able help them until Week 16. And even that seems a little optimistic.

According to a report by the Fort Worth Star-Telegram, the Cowboys aren’t expecting Romo to recover from his fractured collarbone until Week 16 at the earliest. He was able to throw Sunday for the first time since the injury, but an X-ray showed that the bone was still broken.

Let’s play the “What If?” game for a second. If Romo were healthy by Week 16 and the ‘Boys needed two wins to have a chance to make the playoffs, should they play him? Or should they stick with Jon Kitna?

Granted, the answer to that question seems obvious: There’s no way in Hades that the Cowboys are making the playoffs. The second obvious answer would be, “Absolutely you do – you have to play Romo.”

But riddle me this, Batman: If the Cowboys were on the verge of making the postseason at the end of the year, a lot of that would have had to do with Kitna, no? There’s a stark difference between Romo and Kitna, but at that point I would think the Cowboys would have to ride the hot hand. Why insert Romo back into the starting lineup if he hadn’t played in two months?

Again, this scenario is far-fetched and probably not even worth discussing. For the Cowboys to climb back into the playoff race, they’d also have to have a couple of teams (Falcons, Packers, Eagles, Giants, Bears, Bucs, etc.) collapse down the stretch. But it’s an interesting situation nonetheless.

Down 14-3 with less than 20 seconds on the clock before halftime on Sunday, the Cowboys moved the ball to the Jaguars’ 1-yard line and faced a third-and-goal.

Punch the ball in and at 14-10, it’s a whole new game. Fail to convert and the misery that is the 2010 Cowboys’ season continues.

Naturally, the Cowboys settled for the latter.

On 3rd-and-1, Jon Kitna (who is only starting now because the Dallas’ O-line failed to pick up a blitzing Michael Boley last Monday night, which lead to Tony Romo being sidelined for the next 6-8 weeks) spun around and handed the ball off to Marion Barber, who was stuffed at the goal line. On 4th-and-1, Kitna ran into Barber at the exchange and once again, Barber was stuffed at the half-inch line.

Turnover on downs: Jacksonville football.

The two plays didn’t cost Dallas the game (a 35-17 Jaguar beatdown), but they personified what the 2010 season has become for the Cowboys. It’s not only that they fail to execute – they fail to execute because they mentally (and physically, apparently) get in their own way. They can’t block, they can’t tackle, they can’t run simple dive plays like the two Barber failed to score on. They’re just bad. They’re a bad football team.

Just because your starting quarterback is out, doesn’t mean you mail it in. Just because your starting quarterback is out, doesn’t mean you allow David Garrard to throw four touchdown passes and allow your opponent to treat your home field like it’s their own personal Mardi Gras celebration. It’s embarrassing. What the Cowboys did on Sunday was embarrassing.

But should anyone be surprised? This is what the season has come to for Dallas. Poor execution, dumb mistakes and ugly losses. But at this point, it is what it is. Wade Phillips isn’t going anywhere at the moment and Jerry Jones will just have to ride out the rest of the season before he can make wholesale changes.

Too bad he has to watch this monstrosity for another nine weeks.

I feel your pain, Romo owners. I had him in two of my six leagues, and was ill-prepared for an injury to my star QB. In one league, I managed to pick up Josh Freeman and Jon Kitna, and in the other, I was only able to get Jason Campbell and David Garrard.

It seems like a good time to recalculate our Quarterback By Committee (QBBC) to see what QB pairs have a combined schedule that will get us through the rest of the season. It’s fine to trade away depth at RB or WR in order to land a solid QB, but in many cases it’s unnecessary. A problem at QB is one of the easiest to mask since there is so much depth at the position. In most leagues, you can get capable QB play by picking up a couple of guys on the waiver wire and using them in tandem.

To that end, I looked at the 18 (at least somewhat decent) QBs most likely to be available on your waiver wire. In order of decreasing availability (in ESPN leagues), the list includes:

Donovan McNabb (94.2)
Jay Cutler (86.4)
Brett Favre (86.2)
Carson Palmer (83.4)
Mark Sanchez (68.6)
Vince Young (62.3)
Chad Henne (60.9)
Matt Cassel (42.1)
Sam Bradford (28.6)
Matthew Stafford (27.1)
David Garrard (26.5)
Ryan Fitzpatrick (25.8)
Josh Freeman (23.1)
Matt Hasselbeck (20.8)
Alex Smith/Troy Smith (12.7)
Jon Kitna (10.9)
Bruce Gradkowski/Jason Campbell (5.1)
Matt Moore (1.8)

I tweaked Footballguys’ rest-of-year (through Week 16) projections to reflect my own ranking for each player. I then applied FBG’s strength of schedule to calculate a projected points for all the remaining games, and then used a giant Excel spreadsheet to determine the best QB pairs for the remainder of the season.

The two best QBBCs are Stafford/Cutler and Stafford/McNabb, but since Cutler and McNabb aren’t readily available in most leagues, we have to dig a little deeper. The third-highest QBBC is Stafford/Fitzpatrick, which has an average percent-owned of 26.5%, so the duo might be available in your league. Stafford/Freeman and Fitzpatrick/Freeman come in at #5 and #6, respectively.

Below is a table of all 153 possible combinations. Duos that are listed in green have an average percent-owned of less than 20% (meaning there’s a decent chance that they’re available), while duos listed in red have an average percent-owned between 20% and 40%. I included expected points (in a high performance scoring system) for Weeks 8-16 and for Weeks 9-16 in case you find this article after the Week 8 games.

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It’s hard to fault Roy Williams for trying to put a positive spin on a bleak situation. His team fell to 1-5 with their embarrassing loss to the Giants on Monday night and he watched as starting quarterback Tony Romo went down with a serious shoulder injury.

The latest on Romo is that he’ll miss 6-8 weeks, although he won’t need surgery. That means backup Jon Kitna will start for Dallas and according to Williams, the 38-year-old journeyman is just as good as Romo.

From the Detroit Free Press:

“Tony is our starter, but Jon is just as good,” Williams told the Dallas Morning News. “We are going to work this week in practice so we can get the timing down with the receivers. But I have complete faith in him. I have played with him for three years and I know how good he is.”

Although he hasn’t played in over a year, Kitna can be a serviceable starter. He’s a true leader and he demands the best from those around him. He’s not a quiet leader; he wears his emotions on his sleeve and he won’t go down without a fight.

That said, he’s very limited and while Williams was just trying to be positive, Kitna isn’t Romo. He has zero mobility, he folds under pressure and his decision-making during close games comes into question more times than not. This isn’t a guy you want at the helm when you need a big throw late in games and considering how bad the Cowboys’ defense has played the past couple of weeks, this will probably be a team that is trailing more times than not from here on out.

If Wade Phillips’ defense was playing at the top of its game, then the Cowboys might be able to get by with Kitna. But they’ve already put themselves in a 1-5 hole so a rebound at this point appears to be out of the question.

The Cowboys have a huge mess on their hands.

It’s usually not wise to pronounce a team’s playoff chances dead after only seven weeks. But an exception can be made for the 2010 Cowboys.

Tony Romo broke his left clavicle in an embarrassing 41-35 loss to the Giants at home on Monday night. As of this writing there hasn’t been a timetable given for his return, but it’s estimated that he’ll miss anywhere from six to 10 weeks, which means the 1-5 Cowboys can essentially put a bullet in their season.

Jon Kitna did throw for 187 yards and two touchdowns while subbing for Romo, but after the Giants took a 38-20 lead midway through the third quarter it was evident that the game was well in hand. The ‘Boys scored on a 15-yard Dez Bryant touchdown with 40 seconds remaining to cut the Giants’ lead down to six, but New York dominated the game once Romo left early in the second quarter.

It’s hard to imagine a scenario in which Wade Phillips keeps his job. He’s come under fire for many things over the past few years but the one caveat is that his defensive game plans are usually sound. But the Cowboys’ defensive effort on Monday was atrocious.

They were left on the field for long periods of time, but as a defense you still have to tackle. You still have to find ways to generate a pass rush and you can’t allow 497 total yards – 200 of which coming on the ground. The Cowboys did pick Eli Manning off three times, but he completed 25-of-35 passes for 306 yards and four touchdowns and at one point he completed 18 of his 21 pass attempts. With how easy it was to find space in Dallas’ secondary, receivers Steve Smith, Hakeem Nicks and Mario Manningham must have thought that they were lining up against their scout team.

The Cowboys faced an uphill climb when Romo was healthy but now that he’s going to miss a big chunk of the season, it’s safe to say that the Cowboys aren’t realistic playoff contenders. The Giants are light years better right now and we’re talking about a team that turned the ball over five times on Monday. I can’t imagine what the score would have been had the Giants not given the Cowboys’ scoring chances throughout the game.

The Cowboys suffered a tough break when Romo went out, but there’s no excuse for how the defense played tonight. Phillips and company are in for a long rest of the season.

Jerry Jones said Monday that he wouldn’t fire Wade Phillips during the season. He didn’t say whether or not he’d fire him a millisecond after the season, just that he wouldn’t give him the boot during the season.

This may displease Dallas fans, but why should Jones fire him? Phillips isn’t the only reason the Cowboys are 1-4, nor is he even the main reason.

The Cowboys racked up double-digit penalties in their loss to the Vikings on Sunday. They did the same thing in their loss to Tennessee two weeks ago and are now tied with Detroit as the most penalized team in the NFL.

Is that on coaching or the players? Before you answer “coaching,” remember that Phillips made it a point of emphasis to his players after Marc Colombo was flagged for unsportsmanlike conduct in the loss to the Titans not to jeopardize the team by making stupid mistakes. And yet there was Miles Austin on Sunday, leapfrogging over Roy Williams in celebration over Williams’ touchdown in the first quarter. Austin was also penalized for unsportsmanlike conduct and although the penalty didn’t lead to a score for the opposition like Columbo’s did, it still put the ‘Boys in bad position.

The penalty is a reminder that not everything is Phillips’ fault in Dallas. He didn’t leapfrog over Williams – Austin did. Those kinds of penalties are on the individual – not the Cowboys’ coaching staff.

That said, Phillips and his crew don’t escape criticism here. When Tony Romo threw that horrendous interception to E.J. Henderson with under three minutes to play on Sunday, Marion Barber was 5-for-5 picking up first downs at that point. Yet with his team facing a 3rd-and-2 from the Dallas 22-yard line, offensive coordinator Jason Garrett called a pass play and the result was disastrous. He did the same thing earlier in the game from practically the same spot on the field and Romo threw an interception then, too.

Garrett also out-thought himself at the beginning of the game when he ran Barber three straight times to pick up an easy first down on the Cowboys’ first possession, then called three straight passing plays which netted a punt. I know Minnesota’s claim to fame defensively is stopping the run, but for the love of foghorns, Jason, keep the ball on the ground if it’s working.

But this is what the Cowboys do every week now. The players shoot themselves in the foot with dumb penalties while the coaching staff either fails to make the proper adjustments or winds up out-guessing itself. It’s a sick cycle right now and one that is sure to continue unless Phillips, the players or Jones does something about it.

Something has to give in Dallas.

We are a quarter of the way through the NFL season, and there are lots of wacky things happening. The Chiefs are 3-0 and the only undefeated team. That’s a far cry from last year, when the Colts and Saints were unbeaten almost all the way to the end of the 2009 campaign. There are also some interesting candidates emerging for MVP consideration, as well as for Coach of the Year and Rookie of the Year. And like last year, we’ll start to analyze them in power rankings fashion. For this week and maybe the next few, we’ll put this in one post and give three names for each category. Around the halfway point of the season, more candidates will emerge so we will separate things out. Sound good? Right. Let’s go……..

MVP Power Rankings

1. Michael Vick, Philadelphia Eagles—Do we even have to spell this out? He steps in for Kevin Kolb in Week 1 and almost leads the Eagles to victory against the Packers. Then he wins against Detroit and Jacksonville before having his ribs crushed on a meaningless play vs. Washington last Sunday, knocking him out of the game early. Kolb comes back in, and the Eagles lose. Vick is averaging 200 yards passing per game, has 6 TDs and no interceptions, and is also averaging 7.2 yards per rush on 26 carries and one TD on the ground. He has a QB rating of 108.8 while Kolb’s is 71.1. Simply put, this team is dangerous with Vick, and not scaring anyone without him. That’s the very definition of MVP.

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