My post from a few days ago was relatively well-received at reddit, and one of the readers there said that he’d like to see the same graph for some of the all-time great point guards.

So with a little help from Basketball-Reference.com, I compiled a list of (all?) the Hall of Fame point guards: Oscar Robertson, Lenny Wilkens, Bob Cousy, Jerry West, John Stockton, Isiah Thomas, Magic Johnson, Dennis Johnson, Tiny Archibald, Calvin Murphy, Pete Maravich and Walt Frazier. Unfortunately, the NBA didn’t start keeping track of turnovers until the 1977-78 season, so there’s no assist-to-turnover data for the first four (Robertson, Wilkens, Cousy, West) and the data for Archibald, Murphy, Maravich and Frazier is incomplete, so I could only use their post-1977 numbers.

I also compiled a list of the top non-HOF point guards who are both retired and still active: Jason Kidd, Mark Jackson, Steve Nash, Gary Payton, Rod Strickland, Maurice Cheeks, Terry Porter, Tim Hardaway, Andre Miller, Muggsy Bogues, Kevin Johnson, Derek Harper, Stephon Marbury (yes, Stephon Marbury), John Lucas, Norm Nixon, Mookie Blaylock, Sam Cassell, Avery Johnson, Baron Davis, Nick Van Exel, Allen Iverson, Chauncey Billups and Mike Bibby. All of these players have at least 5,400 career assists, which seemed to be the cutoff for players I was interested in using for this study.

Lastly, I added seven of the top current point guards who have yet to break the 5,400-assist barrier: Tony Parker, Stephen Curry, Russell Westbrook, Rajon Rondo, Derrick Rose, Deron Williams and of course, Chris Paul.

I first tackled this subject two years ago, and settled on the shot-to-assist ratio to determine whether a player is “pass-first” or “shoot-first.” The higher the number, the more of a “shoot-first” player he is. To determine whether or not a player is “turnover-prone,” I calculated each player’s assist-to-turnover ratio. The higher the number, the better the player is at taking care of the ball, relative to what he’s asked to do as a playmaker for his team. The graph takes a gentle downward slope because assists are part of both calculations. (Note: While I do like FGA/A as the criteria for shoot-first/pass-first, I am not completely sold on A/TO as the criteria for turnover-prone. Perhaps (A+FGA)/TO would show shoot-first guards in a better light? Maybe I’ll try that next year.)

Here’s how the graph turned out. Click on it to see a bigger version.

Pass-first/shoot-first goes left to right, while takes care of the ball/turnover-prone sits on the vertical axis.

A few random thoughts:

– This is not typically an indictment of a player’s game. Most offenses call for a playmaking point guard, while others do not. For example, Sam Cassell was definitely a scoring point guard, but he was a great fit in the Houston offense alongside Hakeem Olajuwon, who was very adept at drawing the double-team and kicking the ball out to the open shooter. Cassell’s role on that team was to hit open shots, not run the pick-and-roll over and over in an attempt to set up other shooters (like John Stockton).

– Murphy, Frazier, Iverson and Maravich were so far to the right on the shoot-first scale that if had I shown their plot points, the rest of the graph would have been unreadable. Their shot-to-assist ratios ranged from 3.40 (Frazier) to 4.75 (Murphy). In the modern era, Iverson is probably the quintessential shoot-first point guard, even though he did average 6.2 assists per game.

– Speaking of quintessential, it’s no surprise that John Stockton and Chris Paul are in the top-left quadrant, but Muggsy Bogues’ presence is a little surprising. He couldn’t score very well (career 7.7 ppg), but his assist-to-turnover ratio (4.69) was easily the best of the players in the study.

– Other players in the top-left quadrant like Jason Kidd, Steve Nash, Mark Jackson, Maurice Cheeks, Rajohn Rondo and Avery Johnson are your traditional pass-first point guards. Magic Johnson also qualifies, but he was special because he could drop 35 points on you if necessary.

– Just because a player is not a traditional pass-first point guard does not mean that he can’t have great success. Isiah Thomas, Sam Cassell, Tony Parker and Dennis Johnson all have multiple NBA titles on their resumes, while Chauncey Billups has one of his own. This is good news for Rose, Westbrook and Curry, who are not traditional pass-first point guards.

We hear it all the time. NBA analysts call one point guard “pass-first” and another “shoot-first.” Or they say one guy is “turnover-prone” while another “takes care of the ball.” But really, what makes a player a “pass-first” point guard? How carefree must he be with the ball to be considered “turnover-prone”?

I first tackled this subject two years ago, and settled on the shot-to-assist ratio to determine whether a player is “pass-first” or “shoot-first.” The higher the number, the more of a “shoot-first” player he is. To determine whether or not a player is “turnover-prone,” I calculated each player’s assist-to-turnover ratio. The higher the number, the better the player is at taking care of the ball.

I narrowed the list of players to 33, one for each team plus a few extra for teams like Cleveland, Sacramento and Denver, who have a couple of players manning the position. I also added eight prospects (indicated in green) just to see where a few of the younger guys land. Here’s the graph — it’s small, but if you click it, you’ll get to a bigger version:

So the pass-first/shoot-first aspect goes left to right, and the turnover-prone players will be towards the bottom, while the guys that take really good care of the ball will be up top. Players indicated with a blue diamond are in the Top 10 in this group in Efficiency Per Minute. I set the axis for each category at the average of the 33 players in question, so 1.97 for FGA-to-assist and 2.70 assist-to-turnover.

Two years ago when I conducted this study, seven of the top 10 EPM performers were in the top left quadrant (pass-first, takes care of the ball). This year, only five of the top 11 (I included both Rondo and Calderon, since they tied for #11) are in that quadrant. This is due to the emergence of three shoot-first, (fairly) turnover-prone guards who are emerging as stars: Derrick Rose, Russell Westbrook and Stephen Curry.

A few takeaways:

Ty Lawson looks like a star. He is #13 in this group in EPM, so if he can continue to post big numbers in bigger minutes he’s poised to join the Top 10 sometime soon.

Kyle Lowry isn’t too far behind him. It’s not clear if Houston has decided that Lowry is their point guard of the future, but he is #16 in EPM and is well above average in assist-to-turnover ratio.

Brandon Jennings can still become a Top 10 point guard. Two years ago, I would have said that Jennings would have to drastically change his game to join the elite group of point guards, but with the way Rose, Westbrook and Curry have emerged, he can continue to be himself. One thing I’ve noticed with his game is that he has a tough time finishing around the hoop when he gets bumped, which is something that Westbrook and Rose excel at. Jennings needs to master the floater — that way, he can use his quickness to get into the lane pretty much any time he wants, and then get his shot off without taking a big hit.

Roddy Beaubois is an interesting prospect, but it’s doubtful he’s going to be a quality starter in this league… unless he changes his game to become more of a distributor. He doesn’t need to turn into Jason Kidd, but right now he’s an outlier so he needs to take better care of the ball and create a few more opportunities for teammates. You may notice that Tyreke Evans is very close to Beaubois, but he really needs to play shooting guard.

If John Wall can take care of the ball, he’ll be right there with Deron Williams. For a rookie, Wall’s numbers look great. Sure, he’s a little turnover prone, but no worse that Westbrook, Billups, Collison or Curry. He’s a playmaker, so once he cuts back on the turnovers, his assist-to-turnover ratio really has a chance to skyrocket. I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s up in the area of Maynor and Lowry with a blue diamond next to his name in a couple of seasons.

Per the NY Post…

The couple was at sold-out Red Bull Arena last night in Harrison, N.J., to watch their friend Thierry Henry and the Red Bulls lose 1-0 to the L.A. Galaxy.

Asked if Parker’s presence meant he was coming to New York, she responded, “No, we’re just here watching [Henry].”

Asked if her husband wanted to come to New York, she quickly flashed a smile, nodded her head and said, “Yes.”

The Knicks’ dream would be to acquire Carmelo Anthony and Chris Paul, but unless Paul forces a trade, the earliest he could sign outright would be the Summer of 2012. Parker wouldn’t be a bad backup plan if it looks like Paul is going to stay put in New Orleans.

Parker will be 29 next summer and has had trouble staying healthy. He has missed 49 games over the last three seasons. He definitely has the speed to run D’Antoni’s system, though I don’t know if he has the vision. He has never averaged more than seven assists per game, and isn’t the traditional pass-first point guard.

However, if he’s the third wheel behind Melo and Amare, I’m sure he would adjust. It’s just that Stoudemire is so good on the pick-and-roll and Parker isn’t the greatest passer in those situations.

Parker just has one year left on his contract and will be a free agent next summer.

Tony Parker is rumored to be available for trade, but that has more to do with the presence of George Hill than anything the Spurs have done since their season ended. The Knicks are in dire need of a good point guard, so of course there have been some Parker-to-New York rumors as well.

Chad Ford writes that the Spurs are looking for a big.

The Spurs and Thunder also are in the hunt for a big and have targeted a number of teams in the lottery to move up a few spots. The Thunder have multiple picks to offer. The Spurs have Tony Parker or George Hill. While the Spurs aren’t necessarily shopping either player, they’re not untouchable, either. If the Spurs can get another big man to help prolong Tim Duncan’s career, they’ll do it.

But looking ahead — if the Knicks strike out on their plan to get one of their LeBron/Bosh, Wade/Bosh or LeBron/Wade dream combos, maybe a Lee-for-Parker deal would make some sense.

Let’s say the Knicks strike out on LeBron, Wade and Bosh, but manage to sign a couple of second-tier free agents (Joe Johnson, Carlos Boozer, etc.) starting at $14 million per season, that would leave them about $9.5-$10 million to re-sign Lee and then move him for another asset like Parker. That would give the Knicks a core of Parker, Johnson and Boozer moving forward, and give the Spurs a quality power forward to play alongside Duncan. (Remember, Antonio McDyess is still under contract for another season and the Spurs have DeJuan Blair as well.)


Photo from fOTOGLIF

Yesterday, Frank Isola of the Daily News said that Tony Parker wants to play for the Knicks.

With Donnie Walsh in the market for a point guard, there are reports that San Antonio would consider trading Tony Parker, who lost his starting job to Hill and has told close friends he and his actress wife, Eva Longoria, would love to relocate to New York.

Only Parker says the he wants to stay put. (Insider subscription required.)

Parker read the report and called it “even worse than the paparazzi”. He also reiterated for the second time that he wants to stay with the Spurs long-term.

“Again, I want to make it clear: I want to stay in San Antonio,” Parker told the San Antonio Express-News. “My heart is in San Antonio. But it doesn’t seem to matter what I say. The rumors get worse and worse, and as I go through my free-agent year, I know there will be even more.”

“I’m happy in San Antonio,” Parker added. “My wife and I are very happy. I built my home base here, so why wouldn’t I want to be here?”

Four things are fueling this speculation right now: 1) the Knicks desperately need a point guard, 2) Spurs didn’t play well against the Suns, 3) Parker had an up and down year, due to injury, and 4) George Hill is a very capable guard that could step in if Parker were moved.

In the end, I don’t think Parker will be traded. If he doesn’t sign an extension, the Spurs can keep him until February of 2011 before they have to move him to get something for him in return.


Photo from fOTOGLIF

San Antonio played pretty well down the stretch this season, winning 17 of its last 25 games in March and April. (That’s a 56-win pace, by the way.) The Spurs looked sharp in their first round series against the Mavs, but looked old and slow as they were swept by the Suns.

It’s going to be interesting to see how the Spurs approach this offseason. They just signed Manu Ginobili to an extension, and Tim Duncan is signed for two more seasons, so Tony Parker may be the player most likely to be moved. He has one more year on his contract at the tune of $13.7 million and at just 27, he’s in the prime of his career. George Hill could take over the full-time point guard duties, if necessary.

Trading Parker would be a big shift in direction from a personnel standpoint. San Antonio’s Big Three — Ginobili, Parker and Duncan — have been together for eight seasons and three titles, but they haven’t reached the Finals in the last three tries and haven’t made it out of the semis in the last two years. This begs the question — how big of a change are the Spurs willing to make?

Richard Jefferson didn’t exactly pan out, but he’s unlikely to opt out of the final year of his contract (worth a staggering $15.2 million) and no one is going to want to take on his contract unless they’re trying to unload a bad contract of their own. Jefferson was solid in the first round (9-4, 54% shooting), and while he posted decent numbers against the Suns (10-6), he shot just 42% from the field. I was surprised to see his FG% for the season (46.7%) which was a tad below his career clip, but the better shot selection on the half court didn’t offset the fact that he wasn’t getting the fast break opportunities that he did with Jason Kidd in New Jersey.

The good news is that the only players under contract for next season are the Big Three, Hill, Jefferson, DeJuan Blair and Antonio McDyess — all good players, one terrible contract (Jefferson’s) — so with some savvy moves this offseason, the franchise could keep this core intact with the possibility of adding a good player or two. The bad news is that the Spurs are well over the cap with a payroll of $69 million for next season so they’ll be limited to the mid-level exception and below.

Competition for mid-level players could be tough this summer as there are plenty of teams with cap space that could outspend the Spurs for a player they like. The other problem is that it’s not exactly clear what this team needs. They have good guards in Ginobili, Parker and Hill, good forwards in Jefferson, McDyess and Blair, and Duncan in the middle. One thing they do need is a sharpshooting forward (like Kyle Korver?) who could make teams pay for doubling Duncan or sagging on Ginobili’s drives. Jefferson shot just 32% from 3PT, and that’s not going to get it done.

The addition of a player like Korver would likely force more defensive responsibilities onto Ginobili; Jefferson did do a nice job defensively this season. He also played quite a few minutes at power forward this season, and that’s something that Korver wouldn’t be able to do. That means more McDyess and Blair, which wouldn’t necessarily be a bad thing.

If the Spurs do elect to trade Parker, they’ll need to find a third guard to play heavy minutes behind Hill and Ginobili. My guess is that they hold onto him and see how things go throughout the first half of the season. If whatever changes they make this summer aren’t panning out by then, they could move Parker before the trade deadline in order to get something for him before his contract expires next summer.

After watching that Suns series, it sure seems like whatever “it” factor the Spurs had (chemistry, execution, or some combination of the two) is fading, and the odds are very much against another title run in the near future. But Duncan is still playing at a pretty high level, Ginobili posted 20-4-8 despite playing with a broken nose, and the Spurs hit the jackpot in the last two drafts with Hill and Blair. With the right addition(s) this summer, they could be back in the thick of things this time next year.

Photo from fOTOGLIF