My post from a few days ago was relatively well-received at reddit, and one of the readers there said that he’d like to see the same graph for some of the all-time great point guards.

So with a little help from Basketball-Reference.com, I compiled a list of (all?) the Hall of Fame point guards: Oscar Robertson, Lenny Wilkens, Bob Cousy, Jerry West, John Stockton, Isiah Thomas, Magic Johnson, Dennis Johnson, Tiny Archibald, Calvin Murphy, Pete Maravich and Walt Frazier. Unfortunately, the NBA didn’t start keeping track of turnovers until the 1977-78 season, so there’s no assist-to-turnover data for the first four (Robertson, Wilkens, Cousy, West) and the data for Archibald, Murphy, Maravich and Frazier is incomplete, so I could only use their post-1977 numbers.

I also compiled a list of the top non-HOF point guards who are both retired and still active: Jason Kidd, Mark Jackson, Steve Nash, Gary Payton, Rod Strickland, Maurice Cheeks, Terry Porter, Tim Hardaway, Andre Miller, Muggsy Bogues, Kevin Johnson, Derek Harper, Stephon Marbury (yes, Stephon Marbury), John Lucas, Norm Nixon, Mookie Blaylock, Sam Cassell, Avery Johnson, Baron Davis, Nick Van Exel, Allen Iverson, Chauncey Billups and Mike Bibby. All of these players have at least 5,400 career assists, which seemed to be the cutoff for players I was interested in using for this study.

Lastly, I added seven of the top current point guards who have yet to break the 5,400-assist barrier: Tony Parker, Stephen Curry, Russell Westbrook, Rajon Rondo, Derrick Rose, Deron Williams and of course, Chris Paul.

I first tackled this subject two years ago, and settled on the shot-to-assist ratio to determine whether a player is “pass-first” or “shoot-first.” The higher the number, the more of a “shoot-first” player he is. To determine whether or not a player is “turnover-prone,” I calculated each player’s assist-to-turnover ratio. The higher the number, the better the player is at taking care of the ball, relative to what he’s asked to do as a playmaker for his team. The graph takes a gentle downward slope because assists are part of both calculations. (Note: While I do like FGA/A as the criteria for shoot-first/pass-first, I am not completely sold on A/TO as the criteria for turnover-prone. Perhaps (A+FGA)/TO would show shoot-first guards in a better light? Maybe I’ll try that next year.)

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We hear it all the time. NBA analysts call one point guard “pass-first” and another “shoot-first.” Or they say one guy is “turnover-prone” while another “takes care of the ball.” But really, what makes a player a “pass-first” point guard? How carefree must he be with the ball to be considered “turnover-prone”?

I first tackled this subject two years ago, and settled on the shot-to-assist ratio to determine whether a player is “pass-first” or “shoot-first.” The higher the number, the more of a “shoot-first” player he is. To determine whether or not a player is “turnover-prone,” I calculated each player’s assist-to-turnover ratio. The higher the number, the better the player is at taking care of the ball.

I narrowed the list of players to 33, one for each team plus a few extra for teams like Cleveland, Sacramento and Denver, who have a couple of players manning the position. I also added eight prospects (indicated in green) just to see where a few of the younger guys land. Here’s the graph — it’s small, but if you click it, you’ll get to a bigger version:

So the pass-first/shoot-first aspect goes left to right, and the turnover-prone players will be towards the bottom, while the guys that take really good care of the ball will be up top. Players indicated with a blue diamond are in the Top 10 in this group in Efficiency Per Minute. I set the axis for each category at the average of the 33 players in question, so 1.97 for FGA-to-assist and 2.70 assist-to-turnover.

Two years ago when I conducted this study, seven of the top 10 EPM performers were in the top left quadrant (pass-first, takes care of the ball). This year, only five of the top 11 (I included both Rondo and Calderon, since they tied for #11) are in that quadrant. This is due to the emergence of three shoot-first, (fairly) turnover-prone guards who are emerging as stars: Derrick Rose, Russell Westbrook and Stephen Curry.

A few takeaways:

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While the vast majority of NBAers are in Los Angeles for the All-Star Game or at home enjoying a few days off with the family, newly-single Tony Parker was in Las Vegas for a party at LAVO. Here are a few pics.

Per the NY Post…

The couple was at sold-out Red Bull Arena last night in Harrison, N.J., to watch their friend Thierry Henry and the Red Bulls lose 1-0 to the L.A. Galaxy.

Asked if Parker’s presence meant he was coming to New York, she responded, “No, we’re just here watching [Henry].”

Asked if her husband wanted to come to New York, she quickly flashed a smile, nodded her head and said, “Yes.”

The Knicks’ dream would be to acquire Carmelo Anthony and Chris Paul, but unless Paul forces a trade, the earliest he could sign outright would be the Summer of 2012. Parker wouldn’t be a bad backup plan if it looks like Paul is going to stay put in New Orleans.

Parker will be 29 next summer and has had trouble staying healthy. He has missed 49 games over the last three seasons. He definitely has the speed to run D’Antoni’s system, though I don’t know if he has the vision. He has never averaged more than seven assists per game, and isn’t the traditional pass-first point guard.

However, if he’s the third wheel behind Melo and Amare, I’m sure he would adjust. It’s just that Stoudemire is so good on the pick-and-roll and Parker isn’t the greatest passer in those situations.

Parker just has one year left on his contract and will be a free agent next summer.

Tony Parker is rumored to be available for trade, but that has more to do with the presence of George Hill than anything the Spurs have done since their season ended. The Knicks are in dire need of a good point guard, so of course there have been some Parker-to-New York rumors as well.

Chad Ford writes that the Spurs are looking for a big.

The Spurs and Thunder also are in the hunt for a big and have targeted a number of teams in the lottery to move up a few spots. The Thunder have multiple picks to offer. The Spurs have Tony Parker or George Hill. While the Spurs aren’t necessarily shopping either player, they’re not untouchable, either. If the Spurs can get another big man to help prolong Tim Duncan’s career, they’ll do it.

But looking ahead — if the Knicks strike out on their plan to get one of their LeBron/Bosh, Wade/Bosh or LeBron/Wade dream combos, maybe a Lee-for-Parker deal would make some sense.

Let’s say the Knicks strike out on LeBron, Wade and Bosh, but manage to sign a couple of second-tier free agents (Joe Johnson, Carlos Boozer, etc.) starting at $14 million per season, that would leave them about $9.5-$10 million to re-sign Lee and then move him for another asset like Parker. That would give the Knicks a core of Parker, Johnson and Boozer moving forward, and give the Spurs a quality power forward to play alongside Duncan. (Remember, Antonio McDyess is still under contract for another season and the Spurs have DeJuan Blair as well.)


Photo from fOTOGLIF

Yesterday, Frank Isola of the Daily News said that Tony Parker wants to play for the Knicks.

With Donnie Walsh in the market for a point guard, there are reports that San Antonio would consider trading Tony Parker, who lost his starting job to Hill and has told close friends he and his actress wife, Eva Longoria, would love to relocate to New York.

Only Parker says the he wants to stay put. (Insider subscription required.)

Parker read the report and called it “even worse than the paparazzi”. He also reiterated for the second time that he wants to stay with the Spurs long-term.

“Again, I want to make it clear: I want to stay in San Antonio,” Parker told the San Antonio Express-News. “My heart is in San Antonio. But it doesn’t seem to matter what I say. The rumors get worse and worse, and as I go through my free-agent year, I know there will be even more.”

“I’m happy in San Antonio,” Parker added. “My wife and I are very happy. I built my home base here, so why wouldn’t I want to be here?”

Four things are fueling this speculation right now: 1) the Knicks desperately need a point guard, 2) Spurs didn’t play well against the Suns, 3) Parker had an up and down year, due to injury, and 4) George Hill is a very capable guard that could step in if Parker were moved.

In the end, I don’t think Parker will be traded. If he doesn’t sign an extension, the Spurs can keep him until February of 2011 before they have to move him to get something for him in return.


Photo from fOTOGLIF

San Antonio played pretty well down the stretch this season, winning 17 of its last 25 games in March and April. (That’s a 56-win pace, by the way.) The Spurs looked sharp in their first round series against the Mavs, but looked old and slow as they were swept by the Suns.

It’s going to be interesting to see how the Spurs approach this offseason. They just signed Manu Ginobili to an extension, and Tim Duncan is signed for two more seasons, so Tony Parker may be the player most likely to be moved. He has one more year on his contract at the tune of $13.7 million and at just 27, he’s in the prime of his career. George Hill could take over the full-time point guard duties, if necessary.

Trading Parker would be a big shift in direction from a personnel standpoint. San Antonio’s Big Three — Ginobili, Parker and Duncan — have been together for eight seasons and three titles, but they haven’t reached the Finals in the last three tries and haven’t made it out of the semis in the last two years. This begs the question — how big of a change are the Spurs willing to make?

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The Spurs said they were going to treat Game 6 at home as if it were a Game 7, and that’s the right mentality. You want to close the series out at home if you can, because winning a Game 7 on the road is no easy task.

San Antonio jumped out to a big lead early in the game, and were up 35-16 in the middle of the second quarter when Mavs rookie Roddy Beaubois entered the game. Over the course of the next 16 minutes, Beaubois would score 16 points and lead the Mavs on a 45-28 run that would bring Dallas to within two points with 2:43 to play in the third quarter. The Spurs simply didn’t have an answer for him on the defensive end.

With the Mavs trailing by seven, Beaubois started the fourth quarter on the bench, and didn’t re-enter the game until there was 2:44 remaining in the game. Rick Carlisle wanted to get Jason Terry going, and while he did hit a six-foot runner to cut the lead to two with six minutes to play, that was the only shot he made all night. Mavs fans are left wondering what would have happened had Carlisle brought Beaubois back earlier in the quarter.

From the Spurs perspective, check out this series of scores in the fourth quarter:

6:33 Tony Parker makes 18-foot jumper
5:50 Antonio McDyess makes 13-foot jumper
4:47 George Hill makes 10-foot two point shot
4:07 Antonio McDyess makes 17-foot jumper
3:18 George Hill makes 23-foot three point jumper
1:28 Tony Parker makes 20-foot jumper

Notice anything? For a team that usually leans on Manu Ginobili drives and Tim Duncan post ups, the Spurs scored on jump shots on six possessions in just over five minutes. During that stretch, Tim Duncan didn’t take a single shot, Ginobili missed three shots and Parker missed a 16-footer. Otherwise, they were all made jumpers by McDyess, Hill and Parker. (Ginobili and Duncan did combine for five assists during that stretch.)

After a 29-point performance that essentially won Game 4 for the Spurs, George Hill scored 21 points tonight on 12 shots. Ginobili finished with 26, Tim Duncan had 17 and Tony Parker chipped in with 10. Hill gives the Spurs another offensive weapon to go to in crunch time when the Spurs’ “Big 3″ need a break or just aren’t getting it done. As Reggie Miller noted, Hill was a great scorer in high school and college, so he can “score with the best of them.”

I’ll write more about the Mavs tomorrow. As it stands, they just seem like they’ve been snakebitten since losing the 2006 Finals to Dwyane Wade and the Heat. I can’t imagine what is going through Mark Cuban’s mind right now after making several big acquisitions (Jason Kidd, Shawn Marion, Caron Butler, Brendan Haywood) over the past few years. He was expecting that this team would make a run to the Finals, but instead, they just lost Game 6 to their arch-rivals and are heading home in the first round. Ouch.

Photo from fOTOGLIF

The NBA rumor mill is in full effect and one of the more interesting tidbits I saw this fine Monday morning was that, via Hoopsworld, “league sources” are saying that the Spurs offered up Tony Parker in a bid to get Chris Paul.

The offer was immediately turned away by the Hornets.

However it is interesting to hear San Antonio would consider parting with Parker, but if it returned Chris Paul the move is easy to justify. Parker has one more season remaining on his deal worth $13.6 million and could be one of the top free agent guards in the summer of 2011.

First of all, any rumors that come from “league sources” need to be taken with a grain of salt. If true, it is interesting that the Spurs would be willing to part ways with Parker, but I think even he would understand the upside of the Spurs landing Chris Paul.

The deal wouldn’t make any sense for the Hornets as the two players’ salaries are about the same. Paul is signed through the 2011-12 season, one year longer than Parker. The downgrade wouldn’t be worth it for New Orleans.

The Hornets need to weather the storm and try to hold onto Paul. If they were ever to trade him, it should be during (or just before) the 2011-12 season. The Hornets are in a tough financial situation, but it’s of their own doing. The moves for Peja Stojakovic, Morris Peterson and James Posey simply haven’t resulted in the kind of winning the franchise was expecting. Then they traded away Tyson Chandler (whose deal expires in 2011) for Emeka Okafor (whose deal runs through 2014). This is a curious move for a team that is supposedly cash-strapped. I don’t mind the trade from a pure basketball standpoint, but fiscally it doesn’t make a lot of long term sense.

Photo from fOTOGLIF