The Scores Report - The National Sports Blog » Tom Brady

Bill Belichick was right…

John Paulsen — Tue, 17 Nov 2009 21:28:54 +0000

…at least according to Gregg Easterbrook.

Indianapolis had only one timeout, so a first down would have all but won the game. On the night, the Patriots had averaged 6.6 yards per play, so the chance of gaining 2 yards was auspicious. As Tim Graham of ESPN.com has noted, since Tom Brady became New England’s starting quarterback, the Patriots have converted 76 percent of their fourth-and-short attempts. A 3-in-4 chance to win is a pretty inviting opportunity.

Which seems like a better gamble — 2 yards to win the game, or two minutes to shut down Peyton Manning when the Colts are hot? In 2007, AccuScore did thousands of computer simulations of the punt-or-go-for-it question for TMQ. One finding was that between your own 21-yard line and your own 35, you should go for it on fourth-and-2 or less. In test after test, doing this improved a team’s chance of victory — though, of course, there is no guarantee. No coach can control what happens on the field. Had New England punted, Indianapolis might have run the kick back for a touchdown, for instance. All the coach can do is make a decision that improves the team’s odds. Belichick made such a decision.

Two things to note:

1. While the Pats did average 6.6 yards per play on the night, they only averaged 2.8 yards per play in their final three possessions (not including Faulk’s 1-yard catch). The New England offense wasn’t as productive in the fourth quarter as it was during the first three.

2. While Brady may own a 76% success rate on fourth down, during those last three drives, just six of the preceding 16 plays (38%) went for more than two yards. That didn’t bode well for the Pats’ 4th-and-2.

I have no problem with computer simulations, but there is something about a 4th-and-whatever with the game on the line that can’t be quantified. Emotions are higher and everyone tightens up. It becomes tougher to execute. Officials are less likely to call a penalty, thinking that unless it’s obvious, players should decide the outcome (especially when the home crowd isn’t going to like your call).

Belichick’s reasoning is understandable. Tom Brady is his best player and he’d rather have the ball in his hands then punt it to Peyton Manning, who just made short work of his tired defense on the previous possession. Had Faulk caught the ball cleanly, we’d all be talking about how gutsy (and brilliant?) it was to go for the first down to win the game.

But it didn’t work out, and Belichick is left with egg on his face.

Belichick costs the Patriots a win over Colts

Anthony Stalter — Mon, 16 Nov 2009 05:34:44 +0000

Bill Belichick is a genius. In fact, he’s so much of a genius that he cost his team a win on Sunday night by making one of the dumbest decisions by a head coach in quite some time.

The Patriots absolutely dissected the Colts for 58 minutes tonight. Tom Brady threw for 375 yards and three touchdowns on 29-of-42 passing, while Randy Moss (nine catches, 179 yards, 2 TDs) and Wes Welker (nine catches, 94 yards) abused an injury-riddled, inexperienced secondary on their way to taking a 31-14 fourth quarter lead.

Then Peyton Manning worked his magic to cut Indy’s deficit to 34-28 with just over two minutes remaining. But all the Patriots had to do was pick up two first downs (something they had done with ease the entire night) on their ensuing possession and put the Colts away for good. Instead, Indy’s defense rose to the challenge and stopped the Pats on a 3rd and 2 from New England’s 28-yard line to force a punt.

Or what everyone thought would be a punt, that is.

Instead of punting and making Manning drive the length of the field, Belichick decided to call a time out (the second of the drive) and go for it on fourth down. What ensued was a 1-yard catch by Kevin Faulk, a controversial spot of the ball and a turnover on downs for New England. Four plays later, Manning found Reggie Wayne for a 1-yard touchdown pass to give the Colts a stunning 35-34 victory.

Now, I don’t fault Belichick for being who he is: An aggressive decision-maker and a coach that not only likes to beat his opponent, but rip their soul out of their bodies and do a tap dance number on it. That’s who he is and that’s what he does. He’s won multiple Super Bowls with that strategy and he’s not going to change his philosophy now.

But the problem with that strategy in this case is that it just wasn’t a smart football decision. Belichick has to punt the football and trust his defense in that situation by forcing Manning to drive the length of the field to win. There’s nothing wrong with being aggressive, but that was just a flat out stupid decision by a head coach that knows better.

Granted, if the Patriots picked up that first down and never gave the ball back to Manning, everyone would be lauding Belichick’s fearless style. I get that, and I don’t want to lose sight of that fact because the media can be two-faced in scenarios like these. And in Belichick’s defense, with the way his offense had been moving the ball all night, gaining a first down on 4th and 2 must have seemed like a lock and why give the ball back to Manning after he just carved up your defense the previous two drives?

But the Patriots didn’t pick up that first down and there was really no reason not to punt the football in that situation. It wasn’t like they were at midfield – they were at their own 28-yard line and if their gamble didn’t work, Belichick had to have known he was handing a win over to the Colts. Furthermore, for Belichick to burn two timeouts before making that decision and leaving himself without the option to stop the clock had his offense not picked up the first down was just as stupid.

I’ve never seen a team dominate like the Patriots did for 58 minutes, only to lose on a decision like that. New England will surely rebound and I wouldn’t doubt it if we saw these same two teams play in the AFC Championship Game in the same stadium. But nevertheless, this was an awful decision by Belichick and he cost his team tonight.

Photo from fOTOGLIF

NFL Week 9 MVP Power Rankings

Mike Farley — Sun, 15 Nov 2009 12:00:43 +0000

With Drew Brees and Peyton Manning leading their teams to victory again, barely, there is no good reason to drop them in the rankings here. Meanwhile, Brett Favre and Jared Allen did not play, so we held spots for them, but moved Cedric Benson up based on a second 100-yard rushing performance against the Ravens.

1. Drew Brees, New Orleans Saints—Halfway through the season, Brees and his Saints are 8-0 and have a three game lead in their division. Suffice to say, this team appears to be headed toward a first round bye, and their QB is one of the biggest reasons.

2. Peyton Manning, Indianapolis Colts—After a subpar start to 2008 after knee surgery, Manning wanted to get off to a fast start this season, and he has done just that. But what might be more impressive is that after Reggie Wayne and Dallas Clark, he’s throwing to guys named Garcon and Collie.

3. Cedric Benson, Cincinnati Bengals—He rushed for 120 yards against the Ravens in Week 5, and 117 yards against them in Week 9. Read that back. That’s two 100 yard games against the Baltimore Ravens, and that’s just sick.

4. Brett Favre, Minnesota Vikings—The old man still has it, much to the dismay of everyone in Northern Wisconsin. You think Ted Thompson is sleeping well lately?

5. Jared Allen, Minnesota Vikings—He’s had two weeks to rest those wheels that never seem to stop moving. Next on Allen’s hit list is that poor Stafford kid in Detroit.

Honorable Mention–Elvis Dumervil, Broncos; Andre Johnson, Texans, Tom Brady, Patriots; Adrian Peterson, Vikings; Maurice Jones-Drew, Jaguars, Chris Johnson, Titans; Reggie Wayne, Colts; Michael Turner, Falcons; Reggie Wayne, Colts; Steve Smith, Giants

2009 NFL Power Rankings: Week 10

Anthony Stalter — Thu, 12 Nov 2009 03:58:28 +0000

Here’s how I see things 1-32 in the NFL with nine weeks in the books:

1. New Orleans Saints (8-0)
Nobody should be surprised that the Falcons and Panthers gave the Saints issues at home the past two weeks. After all, Atlanta and Carolina are familiar with New Orleans since they play them twice a year. The real story is how the Saints never panicked when they got down early and outplayed both the Falcons and Panthers in the fourth quarter.

2. Indianapolis Colts (8-0)
The Colts have the eighth best defense in the NFL, which is rather remarkable given that starters Bob Sanders and Marlin Jackson haven’t played much at all. Dwight Freeney has terrorized opposing quarterbacks this season.

3. Minnesota Vikings (7-1)
Heading into the second half of the season, the only question I have about these Vikings is whether or not Brett Favre will stay healthy enough to lead this team deep into the playoffs. Last year, he couldn’t and the Jets tanked in the final month of the season.

4. New England Patriots (6-2)
We’ll get a great idea of how good this Patriots team is this weekend when they travel to Indianapolis to take on the undefeated Colts. Bill Belichick better figure out a way to get Dwight Freeney blocked so Tom Brady can build off the momentum he has created the past three games.

5. Cincinnati Bengals (6-2)
I get the feeling that people keep waiting for the Bengals to cave and sink back to reality. Those folks will be waiting a while because this team is underrated, not overrated. A win this week in Pittsburgh and everyone will be believers.

6. Pittsburgh Steelers (6-2)
Jon Gruden hit the nail on the head when he said on Monday night that the Steelers close out games better than anyone in the league. One of the rare times they didn’t close out a team was earlier this season in Cincinnati, when the Bengals beat them on a last-second touchdown. They’ll get a chance to avenge that loss this Sunday in Pittsburgh, as well as take a one-game lead in the AFC North if they can pull off a win.

7. Denver Broncos (6-2)
I’m not ready to suggest that Denver is overrated or will start to freefall, but it is a little troubling that they’ve played two good teams the past two weeks and were beaten soundly in both contests. It’s time for Josh McDaniels to prove that he can make adjustments and Kyle Orton needs to take better care of the ball when his team is trailing.

8. Dallas Cowboys (6-2)
Given all their talent, I want to believe that the Cowboys have turned the corner under Wade Phillips. But this isn’t the first time in the past couple years where they’ve stringed together a couple of good outings to get people to believe. Their win in Philadelphia was awfully impressive, but they need to prove that they can sustain their momentum.

9. Philadelphia Eagles (5-3)
The Eagles had an opportunity to make a statement at home against the Cowboys last Sunday night and failed. Hopefully Brian Westbrook will return soon, because Philly’s offense can look stagnant at times without him.

10. Atlanta Falcons (5-3)
Michael Turner started hearing the words “one-year wonder” being tossed around a couple weeks ago and didn’t like it. He’s responded with two 150-plus rushing performances and has looked like the back he did last year. It’s a good thing too, because Matt Ryan hasn’t played well since Atlanta’s win in San Francisco four weeks ago.

11. Arizona Cardinals (5-3)
The Cardinals’ win over the Bears was one of the more complete victories of the season for any team. Now if they could only figure out how to win at home…

12. San Diego Chargers (5-3)
What a great final drive by Philip Rivers and the Chargers’ offense in New York last week. Norv Turner still needs to figure out how to generate a running game, but all of a sudden San Diego is right on Denver’s heels again in the AFC West.

13. Houston Texans (5-4)
The Texans shot themselves in the foot last Sunday in Indianapolis too many times to count. But they proved that they can hang with the best in the AFC and that will give them confidence moving forward.

14. Baltimore Ravens (4-4)
There’s no doubt that the Ravens are a good team. They were just beat by a better one last Sunday in Cincinnati.

15. New York Giants (5-4)
Has the Giants’ coaching staff lost faith in Eli Manning? They didn’t allow him to test the end zone once after their defense intercepted Philip Rivers late in the fourth quarter last week and set the offense up with great field position. Tom Coughlin and company seem to be playing not to lose these days.

16. Miami Dolphins (3-5)
It’s apparent this season that the Dolphins don’t have enough talent to beat top competition, but that hasn’t stopped Tony Sparano’s squad from battling week in and week out.

17. New York Jets (4-4)
Rex Ryan, Mark Sanchez and the Jets need to find where that swagger is that they played with the first couple weeks of the season. Maybe they located it during their bye.

18. Jacksonville Jaguars (4-4)
What a game for Mike Sims-Walker last week: Six catches, 147 yards and one touchdown. He’s put together a solid season thus far and is starting to make a name for himself.

19. Green Bay Packers (4-4)
It’s almost like Dom Capers’ defense takes every other week off. How the hell do they allow Josh Freeman and the Bucs to rack up 38 points on them last week?

20. San Francisco 49ers (3-5)
The 49ers need a good showing against the Bears on Thursday night if they want to get back into the race in the AFC West. Alex Smith has played pretty well for them, but wins are what matter most in this league.

21. Chicago Bears (4-4)
There’s no team in the league that gives up quicker than the Bears do when they face a double-digit deficit at halftime.

22. Carolina Panthers (3-5)
The Panthers gave a great effort last week in New Orleans, but in the end turnovers killed them. Injuries are starting to mount up for this team, but a win this Sunday at home against the Falcons will keep their slim playoff hopes alive.

23. Seattle Seahawks (3-5)
Good thing Seattle’s defense intercepted Matthew Stafford five times last week, because the offense tried to give the game away early.

24. Tennessee Titans (2-6)
Vince Young has found his confidence again, folks.

25. Buffalo Bills (3-5)
Maybe Trent Edwards can spark the Bills’ offense this week. Or not…does it really matter?

26. Washington Redskins (2-6)
You can tell that Jim Zorn has no control over his players when DeAngelo Hall and Albert Hanyesworth are mixing it up with their opponents on the sidelines when they’re getting their ass handed to them.

27. Detroit Lions (1-7)
Learn from that performance in Seattle, young Matthew Stafford.

28. Oakland Raiders (2-6)
Enjoy whatever time you have left in Oakland Tom Cable, because your time is quickly running out.

29. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-7)
It wasn’t a perfect performance, but Josh Freeman showed some real poise in his first career start last week. Hopefully he can build off that and learn some things this year.

30. Kansas City Chiefs (1-7)
Outside of forgetting to cover Mike Sims-Walker, the Chiefs’ defense really didn’t play that bad last week in Jacksonville.

31. St. Louis Rams (1-7)
Let’s see if the Rams can build any momentum after compiling their first win before their bye last week.

32. Cleveland Browns (1-7)
This might be cruel given the state of our economy, but somebody got fired for putting the Browns on Monday night football this year right? Given how bad they were last year, it’s absolutely inexcusable for this crap team to be on prime time television.

Photo from fOTOGLIF

NFL Week 8 MVP Power Rankings

Mike Farley — Sun, 08 Nov 2009 12:00:22 +0000

The race for MVP rages on at the midway point of the season, and it’s loaded with QBs, for good reason. Brees, Manning and Favre have a combined record of 21-1 and show no signs of slowing down. So we’ll give them their due, for now. Things are going to get mighty interesting, though, in the coming weeks as races get tighter and become closer to being decided, including this race for NFL MVP…..

1. Drew Brees, New Orleans Saints—Their games are getting tighter, but it’s not like the Saints just beat a bad Falcons team on Monday night. That was a tough divisional match up and the Saints just keep, you know, marching…oh, forget it.

2. Peyton Manning, Indianapolis Colts—No TDs against the Niners, but Manning still had a Week 8 best of 347 yards. Plus, the Colts remain undefeated.

3. Brett Favre, Minnesota Vikings—Okay, forget that one blemish against Pittsburgh. After another strong showing against his former team, Favre has now thrown for 1925 yards with 16 TDs and just 3 picks. And his team is 7-1. Raise your hand if you expected that kind of success.

4. Jared Allen, Minnesota Vikings—Three more sacks against the Packers. Jon Gruden talked about Allen having a “motor that never stops,” and that’s pretty spot on. Allen is not just playing like defensive player of the year, he’s making a strong case for MVP.

5. Cedric Benson, Cincinnati Bengals—Sorry Cedric, but while you were on bye, Favre and Allen terrorized the Packers, and Chris Johnson and Maurice Jones-Drew racked up a bunch of yards and TDs. We’ll hold you a spot, but let’s see how you do against the Ravens this week.

Dolphins’ Porter says Brady has separate rules

Anthony Stalter — Fri, 06 Nov 2009 19:15:21 +0000

In a recent interview with NFL Network’s Rich Eisen, Dolphins’ linebacker Jerry Porter said that Tom Brady has an extra advantage every week because he has his own set of rules.

From ESPN.com:

“No question,” said Porter, the Miami Dolphins’ quotable linebacker, who meets Brady’s New England Patriots on Sunday. “When a guy can tell a ref when to throw a flag, and he gets it, he’s got his own rules. They made the rule that you don’t go at the legs for Tom, so when he feels that someone is going at his legs, he just points to the ref and he gets a flag. So I can honestly say that he gets his own rules.”

Earlier this week, Porter said he has a “natural hate” for the Patriots, even bringing up the infamous spying charges leveled against New England from the 2007 season. The Patriots were fined $250,000 plus a No. 1 draft pick, and head coach Bill Belichick was fined $500,000 for videotaping signals from New York Jets coaches from the sidelines.

“I still don’t care for New England,” Porter said. “The hate’s been there for a while, especially after all the cheating they did back in the day.

… They can sweep it under the rug if they want to, but just like anybody else that’s cheating that gets caught, you put an asterisk by it. But nobody puts an asterisk by those championships.”

Porter has opened his mouth so many times about opposing teams and players that there is no shock value in what he said above. And actually, I agree with him that Brady is protected like a China doll – as our most quarterbacks in the NFL.

Some of the penalties levied on defenders this year from hits on quarterbacks have been ridiculous, both in the pros and on the college level. It’s getting to the point now where quarterbacks should just wear flags. It’s one thing if the defender clearly took a shot at a quarterback after the ball was released. But it’s quite another when a defender is going all out and the refs expect him to stop in midair to avoid hitting the quarterback.

I’m with Porter on this one.

Photo from fOTOGLIF

2009 NFL Power Rankings: Week 9

Anthony Stalter — Wed, 04 Nov 2009 19:41:52 +0000

Here’s how I see things 1-32 in the NFL after eight weeks in the books:

1. New Orleans Saints (7-0)
The Saints have the most balanced offensive attack in the NFL, have been a more aggressive and opportunistic defense under new coordinator Gregg Williams and are off to their best start in franchise history. There is a lot of season left, but this team has a Super Bowl-feeling about them.

2. Indianapolis Colts (7-0)
I don’t know if the 49ers necessarily laid out a blueprint on how to stop Peyton Manning and the Colts, but they at least showed how to contain the potent Indy offense for four quarters.

3. Minnesota Vikings (7-1)
I bet Brett Favre and Jared Allen wish they could play the Packers every week, because they’ve owned Green Bay in two games this season.

4. Denver Broncos (6-1)
Teams always learn more from losses than they do wins, so it’ll be interesting to see how Josh McDaniels and his coaching staff adjusts heading into Monday night against the Steelers.

5. New England Patriots (5-2)
We’ll see what kind of team the Pats are over their next five games: vs. Miami, at Indy, vs. the Jets and at New Orleans. Is Tom Brady back to his usual self or did he just benefit from putting up outrageous numbers against two bad teams in the Titans and Bucs the past two games?

6. Cincinnati Bengals (5-2)
The Bengals should be fresh coming off their bye, but they face two opponents in the Ravens and Steelers in the next two weeks that are looking to avenge losses to Cincinnati earlier in the season. Can the Bengals at least earn a split to stay atop the AFC North?

7. Pittsburgh Steelers (5-2)
The Steelers are feeling good after beating the Vikings two weeks ago and then getting Week 8 off. But they travel to Denver and then host Cincinnati the next two weeks, so we’ll see whether or not their record isn’t just a byproduct of facing bad teams like the Titans, Lions, Browns and the ever-inconsistent Chargers.

8. Dallas Cowboys (6-2)
Wade Phillips’ defense is starting to do a better job of creating turnovers and getting pressure on the quarterback. In the Cowboys’ last two games, they’ve racked up five takeaways and seven sacks. It’s no surprise that Dallas won both of those games and they’ll need more of the same when they travel to Philadelphia on Sunday night.

9. Philadelphia Eagles (5-2)
What an impressive win last Sunday as the Eagles thumped the Giants in every facet of the game. Can they do it again this week in another big divisional test?

10. New York Giants (5-3)
I don’t know what to make of this team – are they suffering from injuries or have the last three weeks been the norm? To date, the G-Men only have one win against a winning team, which came in Week 2 against the Cowboys. Their four other victories came against the Redskins, Bucs, Chiefs and Raiders. Yikes.

11. Atlanta Falcons (4-3)
If the Falcons can combine their offensive effort from the first half on Monday night, with their defensive effort in the second half they’d be one hell of a football team. But at this point, I think this team is going to continue to suffer some growing pains on both sides of the ball.

12. Baltimore Ravens (4-3)
The Ravens obviously figured out a few things during their bye week, because they looked like a different defensive team Sunday then they had in their previous three games (all losses). But they have a rough five-game stretch coming up, which includes games against the Bengals, Colts, Steelers and Packers. Their only gimmie is a Week 10 date with the Browns.

13. Arizona Cardinals (4-3)
Just when you think the Cards are ready to turn the page and build some momentum, Kurt Warner throws 17 picks in a loss to a bad Panthers team at home.

14. Houston Texans (5-3)
The Texans’ defense has played better of late, even if the stat sheet doesn’t suggest it. But they’re going to be tested this Sunday in Indianapolis and you know Peyton Manning will want to atone for only scoring 18 points against the 49ers last week.

15. San Diego Chargers (4-3)
The Chargers are like a poor man’s Steelers in that they find ways to win sloppy games, yet aren’t as talented as Pittsburgh to get away with it every week. How San Diego only beat the Raiders by eight points last week is staggering.

16. Green Bay Packers (4-3)
Before their loss to the Vikings, I was ready to jump back on the Packers-are-a-sleeper-contender bandwagon. Now I’m back on the, who-the-hell-has-this-team-beaten?…bandwagon.

17. Chicago Bears (4-3)
The Bears’ victory over the Browns last Sunday was one of the more unimpressive 30-6 wins I’ve ever seen.

18. Miami Dolphins (3-4)
Holy sh*t, somebody found Ted Ginn Jr.

19. San Francisco 49ers (3-4)
If the Niners had anything resembling an offense in the second half last week, they would have probably beaten the Colts.

20. New York Jets (4-4)
Does anybody watch the demeanor of Mark Sanchez when he makes a poor decision? It’s like watching a little kid make a mistake in a Pop Warner game: He sulks, he hangs his head, he’s looking for someone to help cheer him up. Toughen up a little, Mark.

21. Carolina Panthers (3-4)
Even though I’m not a fan, I must admit that John Fox’s teams never quit. Just when you think they’re ready to concede the fact that they’re a bad team, they go to Arizona and beat a pretty good Cardinals squad.

22. Jacksonville Jaguars (3-4)
I guess we shouldn’t be surprised that the Jags lost last week in Tennessee. Jack Del Rio has a young team on his hands and inconsistency is going to be a theme in 2009.

23. Buffalo Bills (3-5)
Holy sh*t, somebody found T.O.

24. Seattle Seahawks (2-5)
I think a Jim Mora-coached team will always be an unprepared team. He just isn’t a good enough schemer to help his team overcome their limitations.

25. Washington Redskins (2-5)
Apology not expected, Daniel Snyder.

26. Tennessee Titans (1-6)
Wow, now there’s a shock – Vince Young comes off the bench and provides a spark. I realize VY isn’t the answer in Tennessee, but at least that team showed signs of life. Jeff Fisher made that move two weeks too late.

27. Oakland Raiders (2-6)
Al Davis might as well make it 2-for-2 in firing head coaches in the middle of the season the past two years.

28. Detroit Lions (1-5)
If you threw any kind of money down on the Rams or Lions this week, I must question your sanity. And if you’re Detroit, how the flip do you lose to St. Louis at home? Ah yeah, Calvin Johnson didn’t play…

29. Kansas City Chiefs (1-6)
Let the Jamaal Charles era begin in KC.

30. St. Louis Rams (1-7)
Congratulations to Steve Spagnuolo for earning his first win as a head coach. I checked with the NFL and yes, it still counts even though it was against the Lions.

31. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-7)
Well, let’s see what you’ve got, Josh Freeman.

32. Cleveland Browns (1-7)
The Browns have to have the worst offense in the history of the league. I’ve never seen a team so inept and the funny thing is that Derek Anderson was supposed to be an upgrade over Brady Quinn in the passing game despite his penchant for throwing interceptions. If Cleveland goes 1-15 and Eric Mangini isn’t fired, then I’m calling shenanigans and the behalf of George Kokinis.