…at least according to Gregg Easterbrook.

Indianapolis had only one timeout, so a first down would have all but won the game. On the night, the Patriots had averaged 6.6 yards per play, so the chance of gaining 2 yards was auspicious. As Tim Graham of ESPN.com has noted, since Tom Brady became New England’s starting quarterback, the Patriots have converted 76 percent of their fourth-and-short attempts. A 3-in-4 chance to win is a pretty inviting opportunity.

Which seems like a better gamble — 2 yards to win the game, or two minutes to shut down Peyton Manning when the Colts are hot? In 2007, AccuScore did thousands of computer simulations of the punt-or-go-for-it question for TMQ. One finding was that between your own 21-yard line and your own 35, you should go for it on fourth-and-2 or less. In test after test, doing this improved a team’s chance of victory — though, of course, there is no guarantee. No coach can control what happens on the field. Had New England punted, Indianapolis might have run the kick back for a touchdown, for instance. All the coach can do is make a decision that improves the team’s odds. Belichick made such a decision.

Two things to note:

1. While the Pats did average 6.6 yards per play on the night, they only averaged 2.8 yards per play in their final three possessions (not including Faulk’s 1-yard catch). The New England offense wasn’t as productive in the fourth quarter as it was during the first three.

2. While Brady may own a 76% success rate on fourth down, during those last three drives, just six of the preceding 16 plays (38%) went for more than two yards. That didn’t bode well for the Pats’ 4th-and-2.

I have no problem with computer simulations, but there is something about a 4th-and-whatever with the game on the line that can’t be quantified. Emotions are higher and everyone tightens up. It becomes tougher to execute. Officials are less likely to call a penalty, thinking that unless it’s obvious, players should decide the outcome (especially when the home crowd isn’t going to like your call).

Belichick’s reasoning is understandable. Tom Brady is his best player and he’d rather have the ball in his hands then punt it to Peyton Manning, who just made short work of his tired defense on the previous possession. Had Faulk caught the ball cleanly, we’d all be talking about how gutsy (and brilliant?) it was to go for the first down to win the game.

But it didn’t work out, and Belichick is left with egg on his face.

With Drew Brees and Peyton Manning leading their teams to victory again, barely, there is no good reason to drop them in the rankings here. Meanwhile, Brett Favre and Jared Allen did not play, so we held spots for them, but moved Cedric Benson up based on a second 100-yard rushing performance against the Ravens.

1. Drew Brees, New Orleans Saints—Halfway through the season, Brees and his Saints are 8-0 and have a three game lead in their division. Suffice to say, this team appears to be headed toward a first round bye, and their QB is one of the biggest reasons.

2. Peyton Manning, Indianapolis Colts—After a subpar start to 2008 after knee surgery, Manning wanted to get off to a fast start this season, and he has done just that. But what might be more impressive is that after Reggie Wayne and Dallas Clark, he’s throwing to guys named Garcon and Collie.

3. Cedric Benson, Cincinnati Bengals—He rushed for 120 yards against the Ravens in Week 5, and 117 yards against them in Week 9. Read that back. That’s two 100 yard games against the Baltimore Ravens, and that’s just sick.

4. Brett Favre, Minnesota Vikings—The old man still has it, much to the dismay of everyone in Northern Wisconsin. You think Ted Thompson is sleeping well lately?

5. Jared Allen, Minnesota Vikings—He’s had two weeks to rest those wheels that never seem to stop moving. Next on Allen’s hit list is that poor Stafford kid in Detroit.

Honorable Mention–Elvis Dumervil, Broncos; Andre Johnson, Texans, Tom Brady, Patriots; Adrian Peterson, Vikings; Maurice Jones-Drew, Jaguars, Chris Johnson, Titans; Reggie Wayne, Colts; Michael Turner, Falcons; Reggie Wayne, Colts; Steve Smith, Giants

The race for MVP rages on at the midway point of the season, and it’s loaded with QBs, for good reason. Brees, Manning and Favre have a combined record of 21-1 and show no signs of slowing down. So we’ll give them their due, for now. Things are going to get mighty interesting, though, in the coming weeks as races get tighter and become closer to being decided, including this race for NFL MVP…..

1. Drew Brees, New Orleans Saints—Their games are getting tighter, but it’s not like the Saints just beat a bad Falcons team on Monday night. That was a tough divisional match up and the Saints just keep, you know, marching…oh, forget it.

2. Peyton Manning, Indianapolis Colts—No TDs against the Niners, but Manning still had a Week 8 best of 347 yards. Plus, the Colts remain undefeated.

3. Brett Favre, Minnesota Vikings—Okay, forget that one blemish against Pittsburgh. After another strong showing against his former team, Favre has now thrown for 1925 yards with 16 TDs and just 3 picks. And his team is 7-1. Raise your hand if you expected that kind of success.

4. Jared Allen, Minnesota Vikings—Three more sacks against the Packers. Jon Gruden talked about Allen having a “motor that never stops,” and that’s pretty spot on. Allen is not just playing like defensive player of the year, he’s making a strong case for MVP.

5. Cedric Benson, Cincinnati Bengals—Sorry Cedric, but while you were on bye, Favre and Allen terrorized the Packers, and Chris Johnson and Maurice Jones-Drew racked up a bunch of yards and TDs. We’ll hold you a spot, but let’s see how you do against the Ravens this week.

Honorable Mention–Elvis Dumervil, Broncos; Andre Johnson, Texans, Tom Brady, Patriots; Adrian Peterson, Vikings; Maurice Jones-Drew, Jaguars, Chris Johnson, Titans; Reggie Wayne, Colts; Matt Schaub, Texans

Here’s how I see things 1-32 in the NFL after eight weeks in the books:

1. New Orleans Saints (7-0)
The Saints have the most balanced offensive attack in the NFL, have been a more aggressive and opportunistic defense under new coordinator Gregg Williams and are off to their best start in franchise history. There is a lot of season left, but this team has a Super Bowl-feeling about them.

2. Indianapolis Colts (7-0)
I don’t know if the 49ers necessarily laid out a blueprint on how to stop Peyton Manning and the Colts, but they at least showed how to contain the potent Indy offense for four quarters.

3. Minnesota Vikings (7-1)
I bet Brett Favre and Jared Allen wish they could play the Packers every week, because they’ve owned Green Bay in two games this season.

4. Denver Broncos (6-1)
Teams always learn more from losses than they do wins, so it’ll be interesting to see how Josh McDaniels and his coaching staff adjusts heading into Monday night against the Steelers.

5. New England Patriots (5-2)
We’ll see what kind of team the Pats are over their next five games: vs. Miami, at Indy, vs. the Jets and at New Orleans. Is Tom Brady back to his usual self or did he just benefit from putting up outrageous numbers against two bad teams in the Titans and Bucs the past two games?

6. Cincinnati Bengals (5-2)
The Bengals should be fresh coming off their bye, but they face two opponents in the Ravens and Steelers in the next two weeks that are looking to avenge losses to Cincinnati earlier in the season. Can the Bengals at least earn a split to stay atop the AFC North?

7. Pittsburgh Steelers (5-2)
The Steelers are feeling good after beating the Vikings two weeks ago and then getting Week 8 off. But they travel to Denver and then host Cincinnati the next two weeks, so we’ll see whether or not their record isn’t just a byproduct of facing bad teams like the Titans, Lions, Browns and the ever-inconsistent Chargers.

8. Dallas Cowboys (6-2)
Wade Phillips’ defense is starting to do a better job of creating turnovers and getting pressure on the quarterback. In the Cowboys’ last two games, they’ve racked up five takeaways and seven sacks. It’s no surprise that Dallas won both of those games and they’ll need more of the same when they travel to Philadelphia on Sunday night.

9. Philadelphia Eagles (5-2)
What an impressive win last Sunday as the Eagles thumped the Giants in every facet of the game. Can they do it again this week in another big divisional test?

10. New York Giants (5-3)
I don’t know what to make of this team – are they suffering from injuries or have the last three weeks been the norm? To date, the G-Men only have one win against a winning team, which came in Week 2 against the Cowboys. Their four other victories came against the Redskins, Bucs, Chiefs and Raiders. Yikes.

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A few changes in the works…we’ve eliminated all New York Giants now from contention until they get their act together again. Well, IF they get their act together again. Drew Brees is an animal, and Cedric Benson and Matt Schaub have also entered the Top 5…..

1. Drew Brees, New Orleans Saints—Now Brees has a thrilling comeback to add to his 2009 resume, and coming back from down by 21 on the road was enough to vault him into first here over Peyton Manning, who was good but not great in beating the Rams.

2. Peyton Manning, Indianapolis Colts—Can Manning do what Brees did? We’re not sure, and that’s the only reason we have him sitting a notch below the Saints’ QB this week.

3. Cedric Benson, Cincinnati Bengals—He climbed over Adrian Peterson again, this time stunning his former team with a career high 189 yards. And let’s not forget his former team is the defense-minded Bears.

4. Matt Schaub, Houston Texans—He leads the league in TD passes with 16, and he has the Texans playing out of their minds at the moment. If the team had a few more wins, he’d be ranked even higher here.

5. Jared Allen, Minnesota Vikings—Allen was mostly held in check by the Steelers, but we’ll let that slide. I’d hate to be Aaron Rodgers this weekend.

Honorable Mention–Elvis Dumervil, Broncos; Andre Johnson, Texans, Tom Brady, Patriots; Brett Favre, Vikings; Adrian Peterson, Vikings; Vernon Davis, 49ers

Forget who the Patriots’ opponents were – Tom Brady has looked great the past two weeks.

For the first five weeks of the 2009 season, Brady looked an awfully lot like a player that had major reconstructive surgery a year ago. He looked uncomfortable in the pocket, wasn’t accurate and was getting flustered by how he was playing.

But in New England’s 59-0 win over Tennessee and its 35-7 rout of Tampa Bay in London, England today, Brady looks like the old Tom Brady again. He has thrown nine touchdowns in his last two games but more importantly than the numbers, he finally looks comfortable again.

Earlier this season, Brady got into a bad habit of throwing off his back foot. But against the Bucs, he showed the ability to step into his throws and while he did throw two interceptions, he played with a ton of confidence and his receivers did an excellent job picking up yardage after the catch.

The Pats head into their bye in great shape at 5-2. They have an important stretch of games after their off week, including two against the Dolphins and one against the Colts, Jets and Saints. If Brady continues to play with confidence, the Pats will be dangerous in the second half.

There was some shifting in the ranks after Week 6 games, and now we have three Vikings in the Top 5. Here is how we’re seeing things now, subject to change again after this weekend!

1. Peyton Manning, Indianapolis Colts—We can’t let Peyton slide down just because he didn’t play last week. And he’s likely to stay here with the Rams looming on Sunday.

2. Drew Brees, New Orleans Saints—After dissecting the Giants’ stingy pass defense on Sunday, it’s safe to say Brees and his Saints are not only for real, but they are legitimately the top dog in the NFC and maybe in all of football.

3. Brett Favre, Minnesota Vikings—He’s done nothing to let us think he’s not worthy of MVP consideration. 278 yards and 3 more TDs against Ray Lewis, Ed Reed and company is Favre’s latest line.

4. Adrian Peterson, Minnesota Vikings—He hadn’t rushed for 100 yards since the opener against Cleveland, but Peterson managed to bust through for 166 all-purpose yards against the Ravens and he took over the NFL’s rushing lead from Cedric Benson, who laid an egg against Houston.

5. Jared Allen, Minnesota Vikings—Check out this year-to-date stat line—27 total tackles, 7.5 sacks, 3 forced fumbles, one fumble return for a TD and one safety. The dude is a one-man wrecking crew on an already stout defense, and this makes three Vikings contending for MVP.

Honorable Mention–Cedric Benson, Bengals; Elvis Dumervil, Broncos; Andre Johnson, Texans, Steve Smith, Giants, Tom Brady, Patriots