2009 Heisman Barometer: Week 12

Draft Zoo.com writes that Stanford’s Toby Gerhart and Alabama’s Mark Ingram has seen their draft stock rise over the past couple weeks and now ranks them No. 1 and No. 2 on their Heisman Barometer.

1. Toby Gerhart, RB, Stanford
Once again, a guy who might not have a real shot at winning the award. Mark Ingram looks poised to become Alabama’s first Heisman recipient ever, and I’m not trying to take anything away from him, but I don’t think the Tide would struggle without him. Stanford, on the other hand, doesn’t beat USC without their junior tailback. He’s a deceptively quick bulldozer who has the Cardinal on the right track to getting back to the Rose Bowl. One loss from Oregon, and a Pac 10 title could be just enough help to give Gerhart the hardware. At the very least, he’s my number one.

Last Week’s Stats: 178 Rushing Yards, 3 TDs

2. Mark Ingram, RB, Alabama
He’s probably the realistic frontrunner right now, and it’s not like he doesn’t deserve it. 1297 rushing yards, 13 total TDs, and a 6.7 ypc average. Not bad at all, especially through only 10 games. But the biggest reason that Ingram’s looking like a lock to become the second sophomore to win the Heisman is the fact that his team is undefeated. One big test left against Florida in the SEC championship. Win that one and head to Pasadena for the big game and Mark can vote for himself next year.

As Draft Zoo points out, Gerhart is unlikely to win the award but the way he has come on as of late, it’s hard to argue that he doesn’t at least deserve some mention.

If you haven’t see Gerhart play, you’re really missing out. He’s a load to bring down and looked damn near unstoppable against Oregon and USC the past two weeks. He’s one of those guys that can put his entire team on his back and carry them and it’s no wonder that more pundits are starting to talk about him as a legit NFL prospect.

People keep talking about how Tim Tebow is the front-runner to win this year’s Heisman, but I just don’t see it. Can anyone objectively say that Tebow has done enough to merit the award? Considering how much talent he has around him (and I’m not just talking about offense), I’m not sure you can.

Unless he comes out and puts on a show against Alabama and whomever Florida plays in the national championship if the Gators can beat the Tide in the SEC title game, then I don’t see Tebow taking home the hardware this season.


Photo from fOTOGLIF

Heisman Barometer: Week 10

DRAFT ZOO thinks Florida’s Tim Tebow and Notre Dame’s Jimmy Clausen’s stock has risen again in this year’s Heisman race.

1. Tim Tebow, QB, Florida
There it was, that’s what he needed. A vintage Tebow game from the Gators’ QB. Two touchdowns through the air, two touchdowns on the ground. All against a rival team. Tebow has the most impressive stats of any of the preseason “big three,” and his play finally has Florida looking like the number one team in the nation. If he can go on another run and continue to drive the UF offense to the SEC title, he’ll have the inside track to winning his second trophy. This award has become more about being the face of the best team than being the best player in the nation.

2. Jimmy Clausen, QB, Notre Dame
If only, if only. If only Clausen had beaten USC then he’d be atop the list. Still, like always, he’s got the best stat line of any BCS quarterback and the voters have been dreaming of giving this award to a Notre Dame player since Tim Brown won it back in ‘87. Clausen may lose out to a player on a better team, but right now he’s a lock for an invite. If he can somehow get the Irish to the BCS, he’ll have a puncher’s chance of winning the award. More than likely, he’ll have to settle for being the top pick in next April’s draft.

I’m interested to see how Clausen finishes the year and whether or not he bolts for the NFL. The fact that he plays in a pro style system for Charlie Weis at Notre Dame will endure him to some scouts, but fair or unfair he’ll draw comparisons to Brady Quinn, which could hurt him given how bad the Browns’ QB has played this season in the NFL.

I’m also interested to see if Alabama running back Mark Ingram can continue to play as well as he has, because to me (and I think our friends at DRAFT ZOO would agree given that they had him in their top spot last week) he is leading the Heisman race right now.

I know Tebow played well last week against Georgia, but the Bulldogs haven’t stopped anyone this year and have one of the worst defensive backfields in the SEC. I’m still waiting for the Gator quarterback to play more consistently and he only has a month to do it.

Dungy thinks Tebow should be a high first round pick

Tony Dungy made some interesting comments on the Dan Patrick show today, including how Florida quarterback Tim Tebow should be drafted high in the first round.

From SI.com:

Dungy also had interesting comments on Tim Tebow. Dungy loves winners. He thinks Charlie Ward would have been a great NFL quarterback because he won at every level. Dungy said that Tebow is like that. He just wins, and that will translate to the NFL.
Dungy said if he ran St. Louis, he’d draft Tebow high in the first round. “Franchise quarterbacks are hard to fine, and I believe in this guy,” Dungy said.

Dan asked Dungy if Sam Bradford, Colt McCoy, Jake Locker and Jimmy Clausen were available, would he take Tebow over all of them. Dungy said yes, he’d take Tebow.

Far be it for me to question a man of Dungy’s stature, but Tebow isn’t a high first round prospect. I know he’s won at Florida, but he’s also had some of the best talent in the country around him, so it wasn’t all him. Tebow isn’t a prototypical drop back passer – he’s a battering ram built for the Wildcat or maybe even the H-back position.

Some Gator fans argue that Tebow can make all the throws at the next level. I disagree. He might be able to make all of the throws some of the time at the collegiate level, but he’s not a guy that is going to take a seven step drop and complete a 10-yard out route without having the defensive back jump it for a pick six. He just isn’t.

That said, Tebow is one hell of a football player and there is a place for him in professional football. I would think that a team would take a shot on him in the third round and use him in a variety of ways. But he certainly isn’t a franchise quarterback like Dungy is suggesting. Not in my humble opinion anyway.

2009 Week 9 Heisman Barometer

DRAFT ZOO released their latest Heisman Barometer and notes that Tim Tebow and Jimmy Clausen’s stock has dropped recently.

3. Tim Tebow, Florida
Ouch. It’s been a rough go of it for Superman over the last two weeks. The Arkansas game was too close, despite a decent day from Tebow, and his shoddy play in Starkville nearly cost the Gators a chance at the title (that’s strangely difficult to type). Twice Tim was picked by Johnthan Banks, and twice Banks took it to the house. Still, Florida is undefeated, and we’ve all seen what the Gators and their QB can do once they get on a roll. If the Georgia
game is a stat-heavy blowout, Tebow can get back into the thick of the stiff-arm talk. At least he’s still putting up solid rushing numbers.

4. Jimmy Clausen, Notre Dame
If Notre Dame had beaten USC, this would be your Heisman frontrunner. It’s hard to find a quarterback with a better statline. For the season Clausen has thrown for 2050 yards, 16 TDs, and only two INTs. He’s got Notre Dame flirting with a consistent top 25 ranking (a bigger feat than it used to be), and he’s garnering some serious consideration as the top pick in next April’s draft. It’ll take some losses from a few other teams, but if Clausen can somehow play the Irish back to the BCS, he could become the Golden Domers first Heisman winner since Tim Brown in 1987. It’s never a bad thing when a 250+ yard 2 TD day is considered “average” for your season.

For the rest of their top 5, click here.

It’s amazing how some pundits still claim that Tebow is the frontrunner to win this year’s Heisman. Are you serious? Have you not watched the young man play the past two weeks? He was good against Arkansas, but the refs bailed him and the Gators out with two horrible fourth quarter penalties and the only reason why Mississippi State was in that game last week was because Tebow threw two interceptions that were returned for touchdowns.

I like Tebow, but he hasn’t been the nation’s best player this year – far from it, in fact. Truth be told, a clear-cut favorite hasn’t emerged for the Heisman yet, but I like DRAFT ZOO’s choice of Mark Ingram as the frontrunner at this point. He has essentially carried Alabama’s offense while the passing game continues to sputter. If ‘Bama goes on to win the SEC and takes over the No. 1 spot in the rankings, it’ll likely be because of Ingram and their defense.

2009 College Football Week 9 Point Spreads

Along with a complete list of odds, here are a couple previews on this week’s marquee matchups in college football.

Georgia vs. No. 1 Florida, 3:30PM ET
The event formerly known as “The World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party,” (back before the stiffs zapped all the fun out of it) has lost some luster due to Georgia’s inconsistent play this season. But this is certainly a game to keep an eye on because it has major SEC Championship ramifications for a Florida team that has lacked offensive explosion all season. The Gators’ defense has been outstanding, but Tim Tebow and the offense continue to struggle and some pundits are just waiting for Urban Meyer’s team to slip up. Will the Bulldogs pull off an upset this Saturday in Jacksonville?
Odds: Florida –15.5.

No. 3 Texas at No. 14 Oklahoma State, 8:00PM ET
If the Longhorns want to turn voters’ heads, then they need a great showing this weekend in Stillwater. Since their loss to Houston, Oklahoma State has rattled off five straight in impressive fashion. Both teams are looking at this contest as a huge statement game and the winner could help themselves in the polls. Alabama is idle this week, so Colt McCoy and Texas might be able to leapfrog the Crimson Tide with an impressive road victory.
Odds: Texas –9.5.

No. 5 USC at No. 10 Oregon, 8:00PM ET
While Arizona and Stanford might have a say in things later on, the Pac-10 is essentially on the line this Saturday in Eugene. Since giving an embarrassing effort in a loss to Boise State in the opener, the Ducks have rattled off six straight and are playing with loads of confidence. USC, on the other hand, has won four straight but Notre Dame nearly came back to tie the game in the fourth two weeks ago and Oregon State proved to be a tougher challenge then the Trojans expected. USC’s defense looked vulnerable last week, surrendering nearly 500 yards of total offense and 36 points. Can Oregon take advantage of that at home and stay undefeated in the Pac-10?
Odds: USC –3.5.

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Florida overcomes Starkville, beats Miss State

Nobody should be surprised at the outcome in Starkville on Saturday night. No. 1 Florida (which has struggled in Starkville since its last win there in 1985) got a great effort from its defense, but the Gators struggled at times offensively and Mississippi State gave them a fight before finally falling 29-19.

But if Florida was looking to silence its critics, it certainly didn’t do even tonight to accomplish that. Outside of gaining 88 yards on 22 carries and one rushing touchdown, Tim Tebow wasn’t very good. In fact, one could argue that the only reason this game was close was because Tebow kept the Bulldogs in it by throwing two interceptions that Miss State returned for touchdowns. (He also took a truck load of sacks by holding onto the ball too long.)

Even though the Gators only held on to a 13-10 lead at halftime, this game was never really in doubt. The Bulldogs were horrid offensively and couldn’t sustain drives. Again, the only reason they were even in the game is because their defense gave an outstanding effort and managed to produce two touchdowns.

That said, did Florida do enough to remain No. 1 in the BCS standings? Before you say no, remember that Alabama wasn’t that impressive either. The Tide needed a blocked field goal to hold off Tennessee at home, as they too struggled offensively. No. 3 Texas might have an argument after routing Missouri 41-7 on the road, but it’s highly unlikely that the conservative BCS voters would make a move like that and rank the Longhorns No. 1.

Chances are that Florida will find itself atop the BCS standings for a second consecutive week. But for the second consecutive week, the Gators weren’t all that impressive either.

Could Florida be in trouble on Saturday?

Considering No. 1 Florida opened as a 24-point favorite, one would assume that they won’t face much of a challenge this Saturday night. Mississippi State is just 3-4 on the year and has lost three of their last four games. Their most significant win came on the road against a Vanderbilt team that is just 2-5 on the year.

But there are several factors that should concern the Gators as they get ready to do battle with the Bulldogs on Saturday night:

- The Gators haven’t won in Starkville since 1985. They were defeated on Mississippi State’s home turf in 1992, 2000 and most recently in 2004.

- Florida could be down three defensive starters, including linebacker Brandon Spikes, and defensive tackles Jaye Howard and Lawrence Marsh. Spikes re-injured his left groin last week and missed most of Florida’s win over Arkansas. With him on the sidelines, the Razorbacks rushed for 133 yards and finished with 357 yards of total offense.

- Mississippi State head coach Dan Mullen severed as Florida’s quarterback coach and offensive coordinator from 2005 to 2008. If anyone knows how to exploit Tim Tebow and the rest of the Gators’ offense, it would be Mullen.

- Despite their losing record, the Bulldogs have the 13th best rushing offense in the nation and are averaging 219 yards per game on the ground this season. Senior Anthony Dixon has rushed for over 100 yards in each of his last five games, including a 138 and a 139-yard effort in his last two outings.

At the end of the day, Florida will have the better team on Saturday night. Even without Spikes, Howard and Marsh, they have enough depth defensively to limit how effective Mississippi State’s offense can be. But there are more than enough factors that should have Urban Meyer concerned about a potential upset, none bigger than the Gators’ poor showings in previous trips to Starkville.

Will Mississippi State shock the college football word this weekend and knock off the No. 1 team in the nation?

Will Mississpi State pull off the upset?
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More deserving of BCS top spot: Florida or Alabama?

With all due respect to Tim Tebow and the No. 1 defense in the nation, Alabama is the best team in college football right now – not Florida. Yet when the BCS recently released its standings for the first time in 2009, the Gators were ranked No. 1 and the Crimson Tide were No. 2.

I realize at this point in the season we might be splitting hairs when it comes to which team should be first in the standings. After all, both Florida and Alabama are undefeated and the Gators were the preseason favorites so it makes sense that Urban Meyer’s squad would hold onto the top spot.

That said, who is the BCS fooling? The Crimson Tide has beaten two ranked opponents the past two weeks and also beat a ranked Virginia Tech team in their opener. Alabama has also gone eight straight quarters without allowing a touchdown and Mark Ingram is running like a man possessed. (He rushed for 246 yards in Saturday’s win over South Carolina.)

Florida, meanwhile, did beat LSU in Baton Rouge two weeks ago, but barely survived a potential scare against unranked Arkansas in The Swamp on Saturday. The Gators were also the beneficiaries of a couple questionable calls in the fourth quarter that probably saved them from their first defeat.

‘Bama has been far from perfect this year, but the Tide are the most complete team in college football right now. The Gators may be undefeated, but their offense hasn’t been as explosive this year as it has the past two seasons and the offensive line is having issues keeping Tebow’s uniform clean. (The Razorbacks sacked Tebow six times on Saturday.)

I’m not surprised that Florida is No. 1 in the standings, but it would be nice if the BCS grew a pair for once and recognized which team actually deserves to have the top spot in the standings. I’m fully aware that Nick Saban’s bunch had the opportunity to beat Florida in the SEC title game last year and failed to do so, but that was last year.

This is this year and Alabama deserves to be in that top spot right now.

Which team should be ranked No. 1 in the BCS standings?
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Florida survives scare against Arkansas

One would have thought that Tim Tebow and Florida learned from their loss to Ole Miss last year to never take an opponent for granted. Maybe that wasn’t the case on Saturday, but it sure seemed like it.

The Gators are extremely lucky to still be undefeated and when the BCS releases its standings for the first time on October 20, Florida will be extremely lucky if they’re still ranked No. 1.

The word “lucky” might not sit well with some Gator fans, but most teams that play as bad as Florida did in its 23-20 win over Arkansas on Saturday usually don’t win. The Gators turned the ball over four times, benefited from two Razorback missed field goals and had no answer for backup running back Dennis Johnson, who broke so many tackles the stats people will need a calculator to add them all up.

Tebow was good – damn good. He threw for 255 yards on 17 of 26 passing with one touchdown and also added 60 rushing yards on 24 carries. But the key in this game wasn’t Tebow – it was that Arkansas didn’t capitalize on Florida’s mistakes. For all intents and purposes, it was a game they probably should have won.

But “should have” and “did” are two different things. Bobby Petrino’s squad didn’t win and that’s the bottom line. They could have shocked the college football world by beating the No. 1 team in the nation but in the end they choked. That said, this is one of the most dangerous unranked teams in the nation, which they’ve proved over the past two weeks by routing Auburn and hanging with Florida.

Back the Gators. If Alabama comes out and absolutely crushes South Carolina, does the Crimson Tide deserve to be No. 1? Alabama hasn’t suffered one setback this year – not one. I realize Florida still won today, but the Gamecocks are ranked and would therefore prove to be a more worthy opponent than Arkansas.

If ‘Bama produces a rout tonight, Nick Saban’s squad has an argument that it deserves to be No. 1. Tonight should be interesting.

Tebow will play, if cleared



Per ESPN…

Quarterback Tim Tebow will play if he passes medical testing before the Florida’s game against LSU, a Gators source said Saturday morning.

The decision will be made well before the kickoff for the 8 p.m. ET game but probably won’t be known until they get to the stadium, the source said.

More commentary on the game:

Steve Eubanks, FoxSports.com: Tebow, Schmebo. This one’s going to come down to defense. Sure, the story so far has been whether or not Florida quarterback Tim Tebow’s scary concussion two weeks ago against Kentucky will sideline him at LSU in the first matchup between top-five teams all year. But that’s not the real story. As usually happens in top-ranked SEC showdowns, the outcome will be decided on the defensive side of the ball. On that front, Florida has a distinct advantage. The Gators defense is ranked second in the country in points per game (7.3) and third in total yards (212.8). The Tigers don’t fare as well. They’re 88th in total yards allowed, 81st in rushing defense, and 101st in getting to the quarterback with only five sacks in five games, none in the last three. If those numbers don’t improve, it won’t matter if Florida has Tim Tebow or Tim Conway taking snaps.

Andy Staples, SI.com: In years past Tebow almost certainly would start on Saturday night when the top-ranked Gators face No. 4 LSU at Tiger Stadium. Old-school coaches would have used the following logic: Sure, Tebow got his bell rung on Sept. 26, when Kentucky defensive end Taylor Wyndham creamed him and sent Tebow’s head flying into offensive lineman Marcus Gilbert’s knee. But he’s had two weeks. He took some Advil. He can shake it off. He’s a warrior. But as the Gators wrapped their LSU preparation on Thursday, Tebow remained a gametime decision. A team of physicians still hadn’t cleared him to play against the Tigers. Why the wait? Because, as recent research has shown, allowing a player to return too soon after a concussion can have serious and even deadly consequences. (Last year a high school football player in New Jersey died after returning from a concussion and suffering another one.) “There are many coaches still ignorant on this subject, but there are an increasing number that are beginning to understand the importance of concussions and the importance of allowing people to completely recover from them,” said Dr. Robert Cantu, the neurosurgeon who in 1986 published the first concussion grading scale. “If you do recover properly, most of the time, there are no permanent implications. Whereas if you don’t, there can be very dire problems down the road.”

Olin Buchanan, Rivals.com: If LSU can run effectively, it will be in good shape. In Charles Scott, the Tigers have one of the most talented tailbacks in the league. LSU has not been as dominant on the ground as expected, averaging 135.4 yards per game with five rushing TDs. Keiland Williams is a solid backup tailback, and true freshman QB Russell Shepard is a threat in the Tigers’ version of the “Wildcat” formation. Coach Les Miles has not been all that happy with his linemen and the Tigers’ fullbacks have struggled, as well. Florida would get a boost if DT Lawrence Marsh, the Gators’ best interior lineman against the run, is able to play; he has been bothered by a high ankle sprain and has missed three games. Florida has an active group of linebackers, headed by Brandon Spikes, and cornerbacks Janoris Jenkins and Joe Haden are active in run support.

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