Baseball scouts have long been waiting for Tim Lincecum to fall apart.

He’s too small.

His delivery is going to lead to problems down the road.

His hair is too long. (This one I actually agree with.)

I swear, every time his velocity drops from one pitch to the next, someone starts hammering away on their keyboard predicting that Lincecum’s arm is going to disintegrate on the mound one day.

There’s no question that the 26-year-old two-time Cy Young winner has struggled this season. I’ve written about his struggles here at The Scores Report, so I’m not going to make light of the fact that he went 0-5 in the month of August with a 7.82 ERA.

But I almost fell out of my chair when I read a recent column by FOX Sports.com’s Ken Rosenthal, who spoke to a scout that had this to say about Lincecum’s future:

* A scout who attended Tim Lincecum’s recent eight-inning, one-run start against the Rockies, says, “That’s the best I’ve seen him all year. His stuff is not back, but he’s getting people out.

“He was getting his curveball over. His command was better. But I’m not seeing more arm strength. It was about average, at times a click above.

“It will be an interesting question this winter: Where is he? What does he have left? I think he’ll end up in the bullpen.”

It’s the last part of the quote that gets me: “I think he’ll end up in the bullpen.”

What a gross exaggeration to Lincecum’s struggles this year. I’m not saying the comment is absurd seeing as how there are plenty of examples of young pitchers who have had arm problems at some point in their careers. But whoever this scout is took Lincecum’s struggles this season and came to the conclusion that he’ll wind up in the bullpen, passing over the fact that the Giants’ ace has won two of the last three Cy Young awards and hasn’t been a complete disaster all season.

One thing that infuriates me when it comes to baseball is that people over analyze everything instead of taking a step back and looking at the basics. Lincecum’s velocity continues to drop, but that’s not why he’s struggled. He’s struggled because he continuously gets behind hitters, who then make him pay when he has to come into the zone. His command has come and gone all year and thus, so has his confidence.

In his last two starts, he has gotten ahead of hitters and has been able to locate his pitches. And, I know this is highly unbelievable and you may want to punch me in the throat just for bringing it up because it is so unbelievable, but he has been lights out (2-0, 2.45 ERA, 20 Ks, 1 BB) in those two outings.

I’m not a scout – I’m only a fan, so I can only make opinions off of what I see. But I know the game of baseball and I know that when pitchers lose their command and get behind hitters, they’re going to get hit. And it doesn’t matter if we’re talking about Tim Lincecum or Todd Wellemeyer – that applies to all pitchers.

Another thing that must be noted is that Lincecum has never had to condition himself before. He’s admitted that he’s gotten by purely on his natural athleticism instead of lifting weights and strengthening his legs. That’s huge for a pitcher, especially as they get older.

So let’s relax on the bullpen talk for a second and let the kid work through his struggles. I’m sure he’ll continue to pitch well down the stretch and I’m willing to bet he puts in the time this offseason to get himself in better shape.

For the second straight year, San Francisco Giants’ ace Tim Lincecum was named the National League Cy Young award winner, earning 11 of 32 first-place votes. He just edged out Cardinals’ ace Chris Carpenter, who earned nine first-place votes and Carpenter’s teammate Adam Wainwright, who earned 12 first-place votes but only had 90 points (compared Lincecum’s 100 and Carpenter’s 94).

Lincecum led the NL with 261 strikeouts and also finished with four complete games and two shutouts. His 15-7 record wasn’t dazzling compred to Carpenter’s (17-4) or Wainwright’s (19-8), but he finished with a 2.48 ERA and the Giants didn’t have near the offense the Cardinals did.

Some St. Louis fans may complain about Lincecum winning this award and they certainly would have a case considering how good Carpenter and Wainwright were. (If either Carpenter or Wainwright won the award, it would be hard to debate they didn’t deserve it as well and it’s no wonder the voting was so close this year.) But if you watched Lincecum throughout the season, there wasn’t a more dominating pitcher in the National League.

On most nights, Giants’ pitchers were lucky if the offense scrapped together three runs. Every inning the pressure was on Lincecum and company to keep the runs to an absolute minimum and that’s exactly what he did. He was phenomenal.

No pitcher has ever won the Cy Young with only 15 victories. That means voters looked past the number of wins Lincecum had and saw what this kid did beyond the stat sheet. And while his recent bust for marijuana was unfortunate, it doesn’t taint what “The Freak” accomplished this season.

Photo from fOTOGLIF
]]> http://www.scoresreport.com/2009/11/19/giants%e2%80%99-lincecum-wins-second-straight-nl-cy-young/feed/ 1 http://www.scoresreport.com/2008/10/15/the-numerology-of-the-cy-young-award/ http://www.scoresreport.com/2008/10/15/the-numerology-of-the-cy-young-award/#comments Wed, 15 Oct 2008 19:05:31 +0000 Christopher Glotfelty http://www.scoresreport.com/?p=7609 Calling all stat-heads! Fire Ned Colletti Now has just done an in-depth piece on the 2008 NL Cy Young Award. They detail who should win the honor using statistical analysis, but they justify their reasoning along the way. If you’ve every been confused by how terms such as WHIP, VORP, and FIP actually factor into this type of decision making, give it a read.

As far as what I will measure the pitchers by, I feel that the most important statistics are ERA, WHIP, and VORP. ERA’s importance is even recognized by the most staunch traditionalists. It measures the pitcher’s primary reason for being out there: to prevent runs from scoring. WHIP is a “new” statistic by mainstream standards, but when explained, I think traditionalists would agree it makes sense as well. It’s a statistic that revolves around a pitcher’s control and ability to limit hits. Less baserunners is obviously a good thing for the pitcher. VORP is where things get cloudy for a lot of baseball writers. It’s one of those magical and mystical statistics that seems to daze and confuse them. I think it’s valuable because it shows, in the scope of total contribution, how effective a pitcher has been at preventing runs from scoring. If you don’t already understand, you’ll see what I mean later on.

One thing you’ll notice is that I don’t mention wins anywhere. Yes, I am one of those guys who thinks that it is a worthless statistic as far as measuring the worth of a pitcher’s performance. If you disagree, feel free to tell me about it. However, please do so by explaining why Livan Hernandez (13-11, 6.05 ERA) is a better pitcher than Jake Peavy (10-11, 2.85 ERA) in 2008. Thanks. I await your input, John Kruk.

All year, my gut instinct has been that Tim Lincecum should win the NL Cy Young. However, history has shown that players on struggling teams usually don’t win either the Cy Young or MVP. These are the same statistics used by the Baseball Writer’s Association of America, so it’s interesting to see someone break down why Lincecum is the best pitcher in the league. At 23 years-old, this kid is going to be in high demand after his five years with the Giants.