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2009 BCS Bowl Projections Version 1.0

Anthony Stalter — Tue, 17 Nov 2009 18:45:53 +0000

SI.com’s Stewart Mandel compiled his projections for all 34 bowl matchups and this is how things shook out in the BCS Bowls:

BCS Championship: Alabama vs. Texas
Orange: Georgia Tech vs. TCU
Fiesta: Iowa vs. Boise State
Sugar: Florida vs. Pittsburgh
Rose: Ohio State vs. Oregon

Is it just me or are those some pretty lousy matchups outside of the BCS title game (Colt McCoy vs. ‘Bama’s defense is intriguing, I don’t care what anyone says)? I’m not saying that those teams aren’t deserving of those bowls, but I’m not entirely sure I’d like to see Iowa play Boise in one of the “big” bowls.

That said, a Georgia Tech-TCU matchup would be intriguing because I would love to see the Horned Frogs try and defense the Jackets’ potent triple-option. TCU has one of the fastest and most aggressive defenses in the nation and it would be a thrill to watch them try and contain Jonathan Dwyer for four quarters.

Something tells me an Ohio State-Oregon matchup wouldn’t be that bad either outside of the fact that the Buckeyes always lay duds in bowl games. OSU has a solid defense, although Jeremiah Masoli and company might tear them to pieces.

Perhaps the most interesting takeaway from Mandel’s projections (outside of the fact that he has ‘Bama beating Florida in the SEC Championship Game, that is) is that he predicts Pittsburgh to beat Cincinnati in two weeks. The Bearcats can light up a scoreboard, but teams that can run straight at their defense have had success and the Panthers might be able to do that when the two teams square off next Saturday for the top spot in the Big East.’

For those of you who are like me that would rather see a playoff system determine the champion in college football, check out John Paulsen’s breakdown of how a postseason would look like this season.

Photo from fOTOGLIF

TCU jumps to No. 4 in the BCS standings

Anthony Stalter — Mon, 09 Nov 2009 16:00:43 +0000

The TCU Horned Frogs have leapt into the top 5 in the BCS standings according to ESPN.com.

TCU took over fourth place in the Bowl Championship Series standings Sunday behind Florida, Alabama and Texas. It’s the highest BCS ranking ever for a team from a conference without an automatic bid to the big-money bowl games. No potential BCS buster had ever done better than sixth in the BCS standings.

Florida is first for the fourth straight week, and Alabama and Texas switched spots for the second week in a row.

The Gators and Crimson Tide have clinched their respective divisions in the Southeastern Conference and will meet Dec. 5 in the league championship game. One of them is all but guaranteed a spot in the BCS title game on Jan. 7 in Pasadena, Calif., if they can get through the next month without a loss.

The same goes for Texas, which has three regular-season games and possibly the Big 12 championship remaining.

The other undefeated teams — TCU, Cincinnati and Boise State — need the top three to stumble to have any shot of reaching the title game.

Some complain about TCU’s schedule, but at least they crush their opponents on a weekly basis. Clemson and Air Force are the only two teams that have given the Frogs a game this season and TCU played both of those contests on the road. And the fact that they’re willing to play non-conference foes like Clemson and Virginia should count for something.

The Frogs have one of the fastest, most aggressive defenses in the nation and I’d love to see what they could do in a BCS bowl. Of course, they have to get by Utah first, whom they play next Saturday.

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Bradford hurt again as Texas knocks off Oklahoma

Anthony Stalter — Sat, 17 Oct 2009 20:31:58 +0000

The unexpected happened today in Dallas. What was supposed to be a grudge match between quarterbacks Colt McCoy and Sam Bradford was anything but after Bradford was knocked out of the game in the first quarter. And what was supposed to be an offensive slug fest actually turned out to be a defensive struggle.

Some may say it wasn’t pretty, but Texas earned a hard-fought 16-13 victory over Oklahoma in the Red River Rivalry on Saturday. Bradford only attempted six passes in the game, completing two for 77 yards before suffering another injury following a first-quarter sack. On the other side, McCoy was just 12 of 39 passing for 127 yards with one touchdown and one interception.

This game turned on the first possession of the second half. After Oklahoma took a 6-3 lead into halftime, the Longhorns came out in the third quarter utilizing a hurry-up offense that allowed McCoy to finally get into a rhythm passing. While the drive only produced a field goal, it instilled confidence in McCoy after the Sooners had frustrated him in the first half. This was the second straight year in which OU’s defense got the best of McCoy.

Freshman receiver Marquis Goodwin also played a huge role in the Longhorns’ victory. Oklahoma completely took emerging Heisman candidate Jordan Shipley out of the game by blanketing him in coverage, but Goodwin hauled in three passes and caught a 14-yard touchdown pass from McCoy midway through the third quarter to give Texas its first lead. With Shipley held in check, Goodwin came up huge.

Of course, you can’t talk about UT’s victory without mentioning how good its defense played. Bradford’s injury definitely helped keep OU in check, but the Sooners were limited to minus-24 yards on 19 carries today. I don’t care who was under center for Oklahoma – that’s an impressive feat for the Longhorns defense. UT also caused five turnovers, two of which came from defensive back Aaron Williams, who recovered a fumble that produced points for the Longhorns and also intercepted a pass to help seal the win.

This game certainly failed to live up to expectations in several areas, namely because of Bradford’s injury and the lack of scoring. Plus, outside of a couple of clutch third-down conversions on the Longhorns’ touchdown drive, McCoy’s performance was severely lacking for a Heisman candidate playing in a huge game. But it’s never easy to beat a rival with so much on the line and at the end of the day, that’s exactly what Texas did. They took another step today in becoming the undisputed champions of the Big 12 and stayed in BCS title contention.

McCoy vs. Bradford: Who will be the better pro?

Anthony Stalter — Wed, 14 Oct 2009 18:00:29 +0000

With Oklahoma set to square off against Texas in the Red River Rivalry on Saturday night, I thought it would be fun to breakdown the quarterback matchup between the Sooners’ Sam Bradford and the Longhorns’ Colt McCoy to figure out who would make the better pro.

Colt McCoy vs. Sam Bradford: Who will be the better pro quarterback?

Arm Strength: Bradford.
Neither quarterback has elite arm strength, but Bradford can make all the throws, while McCoy excels at the short to intermediate passes. Lack of arm strength could be an issue for McCoy at the next level.

Size: Bradford.
Bradford is two inches taller than McCoy and nearly 15 pounds heavier. Bradford can probably add to his frame, where McCoy is essentially maxed out.

Accuracy & Decision Making: Push.
Both QBs have outstanding accuracy, get the ball out of their hands quickly and are excellent decision-makers.

Leadership: Push.
Bradford and McCoy’s leadership have been evident in how good their teams have been with them under center. Both players truly love playing the game and it shows both on and off the field.

Athleticism: McCoy.
Although Bradford does have decent athleticism, he loses this category by a long shot. McCoy has displayed excellent athleticism in his career while rushing for over 500 yards in each of his past two seasons. He’s also very mobile, which helps him elude pressure and buy extra time to find receivers.

Release: Bradford.
Bradford has a great release, but we’re probably splitting hairs in this category because both quarterbacks get the ball out of their hands quickly.

The Final Whistle:
Both of these quarterbacks have weaknesses in that neither runs a pro-style offense in college. So on most occasions, neither is forced to make difficult reads and neither has faced a consistent pass rush. They both benefit from playing in a conference with weak defenses and have out-of-this-world stats because of it. That said, Bradford has fewer question marks surrounding his pro potential than McCoy does. McCoy has never operated under center and that could be a huge problem once he gets to the next level. While Bradford doesn’t have the arm strength to zip the ball into tight windows, he can make all the throws at the next level. The same cannot be said for McCoy, who will struggle with the deep ball in the NFL.

In the end, the question of which quarterback will make a better pro comes down to what offenses they’re drafted into. If a team figures out how to use McCoy’s athleticism and accuracy to hide his lack of arm strength, then he could become an outstanding pro. But Bradford has more intangibles that pro scouts look for and thus, would be my choice to emerge as the better NFL quarterback.

Winner: Sam Bradford.

Which quarterback will make the better pro?

College Football Picks & Predictions: Week 3

Anthony Stalter — Sat, 19 Sep 2009 14:00:52 +0000

Tennessee (1-1) at No. 1 Florida (2-0), 3:30PM ET
Don’t think for a second that Urban Meyer won’t be extra motivated for this game after Lane Kiffin accused him of violating NCAA recruiting rules back in February. Kiffin better hope that his power running game will help keep this one close, because Florida’s defense is going to terrorize quarterback Jonathan Crompton if Tennessee becomes too one-dimensional. Crompton made several poor decisions last week in UT’s loss to UCLA, a game in which he threw three interceptions. If he turns the ball over against the Gators, this game will be out of reach by halftime. Of course, if Monte Kiffin’s defense can generate some pressure on Tim Tebow, the Vols could make things interesting. But so far, Kiffin hasn’t gotten much production out of his front four and it has forced him to blitz in order to get pressure. Tebow will recognize that and pick UT’s defense apart. This one could get ugly.
Odds: Florida -30
Prediction: Florida 41, Tennessee 10.

Texas Tech (2-0) at No. 2 Texas (2-0), 8:00PM ET
Mack Brown still has nightmares of Michael Crabtree scoring the winning touchdown in last year’s thriller in Lubbock. But Crabtree and Graham Harrell have both moved on and although Raiders quarterback Taylor Potts (861 yards, 9 TDs) is off to a great start this year, it’s hard to imagine that Tech will pull off the upset this year. Colt McCoy won’t allow Texas to lose at home and the Longhorn back seven is too good to let Potts to beat them for four quarters.
Odds: Texas -17.5
Prediction: Texas 52, Texas Tech 28.

No. 23 Georgia at Arkansas, 7:45PM ET
The last time these two teams met was back in October of 2005 when the Dawgs barely edged the Razorbacks 23-20 in Athens. Bobby Petrino’s team is fresh coming off a bye week (which followed an easy 48-10 victory over FCS foe Missouri State), while Georgia fought tooth and nail for their 41-37 win over South Carolina. Petrino admitted that the Razorbacks have been game planning for this matchup since August and he even held senior Michael Smith to only four carries in the win over Missouri State so that the running back would be fresh for this week’s matchup vs. UGA. The Dawgs have given up 61 points in their first two outings and considering Arkansas’s offense is starting to come together under Petrino, I see the Razorbacks securing a nice home win.
Odds: Arkansas -1
Prediction: Arkansas 31, Georgia 28.

West Virginia at Auburn, 7:45PM ET
The Tigers will be seeking a measure of revenge after the Mountaineers soundly beat them in Morgantown last year. Although both teams have started off the season on the right foot, West Virginia could have a hard time corralling Auburn running backs Brandon Tate and Onterio McCalebb. The duo has combined to rush for over 530 yards in two games and will provide a challenge that the Mountaineers’ run-defense didn’t receive in their first two games. As long as the Auburn defense can contain Noel Devine and senior quarterback Jarrett Brown, they should be able to get their revenge on West Virginia and start the ’09 season 3-0.
Odds: Auburn -7
Prediction: Auburn 38, West Virginia 24.

2009 CFB Preview: Texas Longhorns

Anthony Stalter — Sun, 30 Aug 2009 23:23:59 +0000

Check out our other 2009 college football previews.

Preseason Ranking: No. 2 in AP Top 25; No. 2 in USA Today Poll.

Key Returning Players: Colt McCoy (QB); Jordan Shipley (WR); Brandon Collins (WR); Vondrell McGee (RB); Adam Ulatoski (OT); Roddrick Muckelroy (LB); Sergio Kindle (LB); Jared Norton (LB); Earl Thomas (S); Deon Beasley (CB); Curtis Brown (CB); Cody Johnson.

Key Losses: Brian Orakpo (DE); Rashad Bobino (LB); Henry Melton (DE); Roy Miller (DT); Ryan Palmer (CB); Quan Cosby (WR); Cedric Dockery (G); Chris Ogbonnaya (RB).

Player to Watch: Colt McCoy, QB.
Who else? After completing 76.7 percent of his passes, throwing for 3,859 yards, rushing for 561 yards and totaling 45 touchdowns (34 passing, 11 rushing) in 2008, is there anything McCoy can’t do? He could usher people to his seats before the game and sell concessions at halftime and still compile 400 total yards and five touchdowns. McCoy is once again a legitimate Heisman candidate and only has one mission after deciding to return for his senior year: Win a national championship.

Team Strength: Outside of what McCoy brings to the table, the back seven on defense will be a major strength for the Longhorns this season. The defensive line lost a ton of talent with the departures of Brian Orakpo, Henry Melton and Roy Miller, but the linebacker corps should be one of the best in the nation with the return of Roddrick Muckelroy, Sergio Kindle and Jared Norton. The secondary, which ranked seventh in the Big 12 last year in pass defense, returns solid corners Deon Beasley, Curtis Brown and Chykie Brown, as well as quality safeties Blake Gideon and Earl Thomas. As long as the line can get consistent pressure on the quarterback, Texas will be fine defensively…

Potential Weakness: …but if it can’t, the effectiveness of the back seven could be negated. The Longhorns led the nation in sacks last year, but they lost an elite pass rusher in Orakpo (who was drafted in April), as well as former starters Melton and Miller. Kindle is being tried at a defensive end and given the pass-rushing ability he displayed from the linebacker position last year, Texas could wind up being fine in that department. But Mack Brown better hope that’s the case, because teams don’t survive in the Big 12 without a consistent pass rush.

Outlook: Texas will go as far as McCoy takes them. While the senior signal caller certainly has enough talent around him in Jordan Shipley, Vondrell McGee, Malcolm Williams and James Kirkendoll not to have to win games on his own, McCoy is the key to whether or not the Longhorns will play in the national title game this season. While questions remain about the line, the defense is in good shape and won’t hold the Longhorns back. The non-conference schedule is also favorable, as Louisiana-Monroe, Wyoming, UTEP and UCF shouldn’t pose too much of a threat. (As opposed to BYU and Miami, two teams on Big 12 rival Oklahoma’s non-conference schedule.)

Given the return of McCoy, the weapons they have on offense, the defensive back seven and their favorable schedule, the Longhorns are set up to make a championship run. Now it’s just a matter of putting it all together.

USA Today Preseason Polls: Florida No. 1

Anthony Stalter — Fri, 07 Aug 2009 14:16:27 +0000

The USA Today Coaches’ Top 25 college football coaches’ poll has been released and to no surprise, Florida ranks No. 1.

Here’s the top 15 (via ESPN.com):

1. Florida
2. Texas
3. Oklahoma
4. USC
5. Alabama
6. Ohio State
7. Virginia Tech
8. Penn State
9. LSU
10. Mississippi
11. Oklahoma State
12. California
13. Georgia
14. Oregon
15. Georgia Tech

The most intriguing team to watch this year in the top 15 is Ole’ Miss. The have a solid quarterback in Jevan Snead a true playmaker in Dexter McCluster, a couple of quality receivers and several capable rushers. But the one thing that could keep the Rebels from taking that next step is the play of the offensive and defensive lines. They lost two significant pieces of both lines last year when Michael Oher and Peria Jerry were drafted into the NFL. Can they replace both of those players and make some noise in the SEC?

Another team to at least keep an eye on this year is North Carolina, who is ranked 20 in the preseason poll. They lost receivers Hakeem Nicks and Brandon Tate to the NFL, but their offense is still chockfull of potential and their defense was incredibly opportunistic last year. I’m not saying the Heels will challenge for a national title this season, but they’ll be competitive.

The Heisman race is going to be fun to watch all year, too. Sam Bradford, Tim Tebow, Colt McCoy and Terrelle Pryor hold the edge going into the season, but watch out for sleepers like Evan Royster, Jonathan Dwyer and Jahvid Best.