College Football Picks & Predictions: Week 3

Tennessee (1-1) at No. 1 Florida (2-0), 3:30PM ET
Don’t think for a second that Urban Meyer won’t be extra motivated for this game after Lane Kiffin accused him of violating NCAA recruiting rules back in February. Kiffin better hope that his power running game will help keep this one close, because Florida’s defense is going to terrorize quarterback Jonathan Crompton if Tennessee becomes too one-dimensional. Crompton made several poor decisions last week in UT’s loss to UCLA, a game in which he threw three interceptions. If he turns the ball over against the Gators, this game will be out of reach by halftime. Of course, if Monte Kiffin’s defense can generate some pressure on Tim Tebow, the Vols could make things interesting. But so far, Kiffin hasn’t gotten much production out of his front four and it has forced him to blitz in order to get pressure. Tebow will recognize that and pick UT’s defense apart. This one could get ugly.
Odds: Florida -30
Prediction: Florida 41, Tennessee 10.

Texas Tech (2-0) at No. 2 Texas (2-0), 8:00PM ET
Mack Brown still has nightmares of Michael Crabtree scoring the winning touchdown in last year’s thriller in Lubbock. But Crabtree and Graham Harrell have both moved on and although Raiders quarterback Taylor Potts (861 yards, 9 TDs) is off to a great start this year, it’s hard to imagine that Tech will pull off the upset this year. Colt McCoy won’t allow Texas to lose at home and the Longhorn back seven is too good to let Potts to beat them for four quarters.
Odds: Texas -17.5
Prediction: Texas 52, Texas Tech 28.

No. 23 Georgia at Arkansas, 7:45PM ET
The last time these two teams met was back in October of 2005 when the Dawgs barely edged the Razorbacks 23-20 in Athens. Bobby Petrino’s team is fresh coming off a bye week (which followed an easy 48-10 victory over FCS foe Missouri State), while Georgia fought tooth and nail for their 41-37 win over South Carolina. Petrino admitted that the Razorbacks have been game planning for this matchup since August and he even held senior Michael Smith to only four carries in the win over Missouri State so that the running back would be fresh for this week’s matchup vs. UGA. The Dawgs have given up 61 points in their first two outings and considering Arkansas’s offense is starting to come together under Petrino, I see the Razorbacks securing a nice home win.
Odds: Arkansas -1
Prediction: Arkansas 31, Georgia 28.

West Virginia at Auburn, 7:45PM ET
The Tigers will be seeking a measure of revenge after the Mountaineers soundly beat them in Morgantown last year. Although both teams have started off the season on the right foot, West Virginia could have a hard time corralling Auburn running backs Brandon Tate and Onterio McCalebb. The duo has combined to rush for over 530 yards in two games and will provide a challenge that the Mountaineers’ run-defense didn’t receive in their first two games. As long as the Auburn defense can contain Noel Devine and senior quarterback Jarrett Brown, they should be able to get their revenge on West Virginia and start the ’09 season 3-0.
Odds: Auburn -7
Prediction: Auburn 38, West Virginia 24.

Couch Potato Alert: 1/2

All times ET…

College Football

Friday, 2 PM: No. 20 Mississippi vs. No. 8 Texas Tech – Cotton Bowl, Fox
Friday, 5 PM: Kentucky vs. East Carolina – Liberty Bowl, ESPN
Friday, 8 PM: No. 7 Utah vs. No. 4 Alabama – Sugar Bowl, Fox
Saturday, 12 PM: Buffalo vs. Connecticut – International Bowl, ESPN2

College Basketball

Friday, 8:30 PM: No. 11 Syracuse vs. South Florida, ESPN
Saturday, 12 PM: No. 3 Pittsburgh vs. No. 8 Georgetown, ESPN
Saturday, 12 PM: No. 23 Ohio State vs. No. 21 Minnesota
Sunday, TBA: Kentucky vs. No. 18 Louisville, CBS

NBA

Friday, 7:30 PM: Indiana Pacers vs. New York Knicks, NBA TV
Saturday, 8:30 PM: Philadelphia 76ers vs. San Antonio Spurs, NBA TV
Sunday, 6 PM: Boston Celtics vs. New York Knicks, NBA TV

NFL

Saturday, 4:30 PM: Atlanta Falcons vs. Arizona Cardinals, NBC
Saturday, 8 PM: Indianapolis Colts vs. San Diego Chargers, NBC
Sunday, 1 PM: Baltimore Ravens vs. Miami Dolphins, CBS
Sunday, 4:30 PM: Philadelphia Eagles vs. Minnesota Vikings, Fox

NHL

Friday, 7 PM: Montreal Canadiens vs. New Jersey Devils
Friday: 10 PM: Philadelphia Flyers vs. Anaheim Ducks
Saturday, 5 PM: Ottawa Senators vs. New Jersey Devils

Couch Potato Alert: 11/21

Michigan vs. Ohio State
It’s Michigan-Ohio State – a classic rivalry that unites strangers and divides friends once a year for three and half hours. The Buckeyes are 9-2 with dreams of a BCS bowl bid in their future, and a victory over the Wolverines will give them a share of their fourth consecutive Big Ten title. How bad is it for Michigan? Well, last week’s home loss to Northwestern officially stamped this season as the worst in school history. Never has a Wolverine team lost eight games in one season and Ohio State would love to lower the bar even further. National coverage begins Saturday at 12 PM on ABC. Click here for the official Michigan-Ohio State smack thread.

Michigan State vs. Penn State
A win for Joe Pa on Saturday could clinch Penn State’s first Rose Bowl appearance since 1994, their second year competing in the Big Ten. If Michigan State running back Javon Ringer cannot run the football, the Spartans will have no chance of winning this game. It will be a difficult task, as the Nittany Lions are ranked first in the Big Ten and 10th in the country against the run. Michigan State’s last victory in Beaver Stadium was in 1965, the year before Joe Paterno became head coach of the program. Regional coverage begins Saturday at 3:30 PM on ABC.

Texas Tech vs. Oklahoma
A win in Norman on Saturday night would leave the Red Raiders two victories away from playing in the BCS national championship game. But an Oklahoma win will leave us with oh so many possibilities for our little bowl series come January. First off, we will have a three-way tie (Texas-Oklahoma-Texas Tech) for the top spot in the Big 12 South, and the conference has an interesting tie-breaker to determine the representative in the Big 12 title game against Missouri. The winner will be decided by which school has the highest ranking in the BCS bowl standing. So, Orwell’s big brother will have a vested interest in the outcome of this weekend’s game. National coverage begins Saturday at 8 PM on ABC. Click here for the official Texas Tech-Oklahoma smack thread.

New York Jets vs. Tennessee Titans
Two of the hottest teams in AFC will square off this Sunday, as the New York Jets travel to Memphis to face the undefeated Tennessee Titans and the winner could emerged as the conference favorite to reach the Super Bowl. The East-leading Jets are riding a four-game winning streak into the game, while the Titans are looking to become the 13th team in league history to open a season with a 11-0 record. The media spotlight has shine brightest on quarterback Brett Favre, but the team’s turnaround can be contributed to the Jets running attack. New York has averaged over 160 yards per game and scored eight rushing touchdowns in its last five games. The Titans defense could welcome back two starters this week with defensive end Kyle Vanden Bosch (groin) and cornerback Nick Harper (ankle) returning to the lineup. Regional coverage begins Sunday at 1 PM on Fox.

Is Florida the best team in the nation?

Florida GatorsThe rankings and polls suggest that Nick Saban’s Alabama Crimson Tide is the best team in college football. Considering they’re 11-0 this season with wins over previously No. 1 ranked Georgia and SEC foe LSU in Baton Rouge, it’s hard to question why the polls have ‘Bama at numero uno.

But are the Tide the legit top ranked team in the nation or are they there by default because they’re unbeaten? With the way Florida crushed South Carolina 56-6 on Saturday and have run roughshod over everybody since losing to Ole’ Miss in late September, are the Gators the true No. 1 team in college football?

Not to take anything away from Alabama or No. 2 Texas Tech, but no team in college football is playing better than Florida is right now. They’re arguably the fastest team in the nation and their defense has played absolutely remarkable this season, holding opponents to just over 11 points a game.

Obviously we’ll know more on December 6 when the Tide and Gators meet in the SEC Championship Game, but you just get the feeling that Alabama is due to stumble. They weren’t overly impressive in a 32-7 win over Mississippi State on Saturday (at least in the first half) and they’ve struggled playing four quarters outside of their impressive win over LSU.

If the two teams meet tomorrow on neutral ground, I’ve got to believe that Florida would hand ‘Bama its first loss of the season.

Which college football team is the best?


Poll Answers

Week 11 College Football Primer

Top 25 vs. Top 25

John Parker WilsonNo. 1 Alabama at No. 16 LSU, 3:30 PM ET Saturday
Nick Saban doesn’t want the focus to be on him this week and for good reason since he spurned LSU a few years ago to go fail in the NFL. That storyline might be a little overrated though, because it’s doubtful the current Tiger players Saban recruited care much about beating him on Saturday. They’ll have more motivation beating a hated rival and knocking off the No. 1 team in the nation. ‘Bama has had issues playing four full quarters all season – will this be the week they finally play a full game and soundly beat a quality opponent? Or will LSU sustain the Tide’s initial punch and come through in the second half? This game is what SEC football is all about and we should expect nothing more than a close, physical matchup that comes down to the wire, even though Alabama has the superior team.

No. 12 TCU at No. 8 Utah, 8:00 PM ET Thursday
The Horned Frogs have the opportunity to knock off yet another MWC foe out of BCS title contention this Saturday when they pay a trip to Utah. TCU has held its previous five opponents to only 8.4 points per game and have also limited eight foes to a 2008 season low in yards, which is the most of any team in Division I football. Pundits love what the Frogs bring to the table defensively, but the Utes have plenty to offer themselves. Utah has held four of its opponents to season lows in yardage and has won nine in a row at home. They’ve also beaten TCU the past two meetings and obviously have a ton to play for.

No. 11 Ohio State at No. 24 Northwestern, 12:00 PM ET
The Wildcats got a lot of people’s attention last week when they pulled off a miracle upset of Minnesota in the final seconds of the game. But Ohio State has had over a week to stew about the loss to Penn State and they’ve had a ton of success against Northwestern over the past couple of years. The Buckeyes have allowed just 23 total points the past three games and it’s highly doubtful backup quarterback Mike Kakfa puts together back-to-back solid performances. It’ll be interesting to see how freshman quarterback Terrelle Pryor rebounds after his crucial fumble played a big role in OSU’s loss to the Nittany Lions.

Michael CrabtreeNo. 9 Oklahoma State at No. 2 Texas Tech, 8:00 PM ET, Saturday
It’s no wonder why people keep talking about the Big 12 being the superior conference this season when it keeps churning out fantastic matchups like this every week. Tech had zero time to celebrate its win over Texas last week because the Cowboys offer another potential roadblock to the Raiders’ BCS title hopes. Much like last week, this game features a pair of Heisman Trophy candidates at quarterback in Graham Harrell and Zac Robinson. Can Tech continue to post 500 yards of offense every game or will Mike Leach’s team eventually stumble? OK State hasn’t won in Lubbock since 1944, but the Cowboys have played very well on the road under Mike Gundy and are hoping a win could elevate their BCS status after they hung tough with Texas a few weeks ago. Can the Raiders play as well defensively as they did last week against the Longhorns or will yet another top 5 team get picked off?

No. 21 California at No. 7 USC, 8:00 PM ET, Saturday
Many pundits have had this game circled as one where the Trojans could potentially fall victim to an upset. The Bears usually play USC close and fought the Trojans to the final whistle last year before losing by only a touchdown. USC struggled a bit last week in Arizona, but are incredibly tough to beat at the Coliseum. Maybe head coach Pete Carroll will call upon “Captain Compete” to rally his team again before the game.

No. 20 Georgia Tech at No. 19 North Carolina, 12:00 PM ET, Saturday
The Yellow Jackets struggled again last week but managed to knock off Florida State with a last second field goal after a goal line stop and a fumble recovery in the end zone (thank you reader GTA for the correction). Tech is 9-1 against the Heels in their last 10 meetings, but UNC has 17 interceptions on the season, which ties them for the most in the nation. The key in this game will be whether or not the Heels can stop Tech’s relentless ground attack for four quarters. If the Jackets find success on the ground, there will be no reason to put the ball in the air often and risk turning the ball over to a ball-hawking UNC defense.

Other Notable Games:

No. 3 Penn State Nittany Lions at Iowa, 3:30 PM ET, Saturday
Those fans that don’t want to see another Big Ten team play for a national championship will be watching this game with hopes that the Hawkeyes can pull off a huge upset. The Lions probably won’t faced another ranked team the rest of the way, although Iowa and Michigan State are no pushovers. PSU is coming off a bye week – will they come out flat or determine after moving down in the rankings?

Couch Potato Alert: 11/7

Alabama vs. LSU
How ironic is life…Nick Saban coached LSU to a BCS national championship in 2003, only to take the money and run to the NFL. He became frustrated at the pro level in Miami, and then brokered a deal to return to college football at Alabama. This weekend, Saban returns to Tiger Stadium with the nation’s top-ranked team. LSU’s offensive line could have a tough time opening holes for running back Charles Scott against a Bama defensive front that ranks second in the nation against the run. It would be the Tigers best interest to grab an early lead, as Alabama has dominated their opponents at beginning of games all season. National coverage begins Saturday at 3:30 PM on CBS. Click here for official Alabama vs. LSU smack thread.

Oklahoma State vs. Texas Tech
Another week, another contest in the Big 12 that matches two high-powered offenses in a game with BCS national title game implications. The Red Raiders are coming off a last second victory over then No. 1 Texas last weekend, but they cannot afford to relax as a game in Oklahoma looms ahead later in the month. Texas Tech’s 9-0 record is their best start to a season since 1938, and the Red Raiders haven’t been undefeated in conference play this late in the season since 1953, when they were a member of the Border Conference. Regional coverage begins Saturday at 8 PM on ABC.

New York Giants vs. Philadelphia Eagles
A road win over the surging Philadelphia Eagles will secure the New York Giants as the class of the NFC and established them as the conference favorites to return to the Super Bowl. Many in the media have downplayed the Giants 7-1 record because of their relative easy schedule, as they have faced teams with a combined record of 27-40 on the season. The Eagles are second in the NFC behind the Giants with 27 sacks and will look to pressure Eli Manning in the backfield all Sunday evening. The Giants’ only loss in their last four trips to Philly came in their 2007 wild-card playoff meeting. National coverage begins Sunday at 8:15 PM on NBC.

Penn State vs. Texas Tech

If Alabama, Penn State and Texas Tech win out, we’ll be hearing plenty of arguments over who should be facing Alabama in the National Championship game. Call it this year’s BCS mess.

In today’s BCS standings, Texas Tech has jumped Penn State to take the #2 spot, mostly due to better computer rankings even though Penn State is #2 in the polls. That’s not too surprising given Texas Tech’s win over Texas, tough that’s little consolation to Penn State fans.

It’s hard to have much sympathy for Penn State, however, given their embarrassing non-conference schedule – Coastal Carolina, Oregon State, Syracuse and Temple. Would it kill Joe Paterno to schedule some national powers?

But, Texas Tech’s non-conference schedule is even worse – Eastern Washington, Nevada, SMU and Massachusetts. Pathetic. Of course, Texas Tech is playing in the Big-12, which has some very good teams this year, even if the entire conference seems to have forgotten how to play defense. In the end, playing in this conference will save Texas Tech.

Or will it? They still have to face #9 Oklahoma State and #6 Oklahoma on the schedule, not to mention the Big-12 championship game. If they win out, they deserve to play for the BCS championship. It will be a tough road.

Which brings us back to Penn State. If Joe Paterno and an undefeated Nittany Lions team get left out of the title game, it might be enough of an outrage to finally force a playoff format.

Couch Potato Alert: 10/31

Florida vs. Georgia
The winner of this game should become the SEC East representative against Alabama in the conference’s title game, while the loser will probably not play in a BCS bowl game. Florida has revenge on their mind; they remember Georgia’s end-zone celebration from a year ago. Bulldogs coach Mark Richt ordered the entire bench on to the field after scoring their first touchdown in a 42-30 victory. Gators coach Urban Meyer was upset by the antics but has downplayed the animosity between the schools this week. You can expect fireworks on the field this Saturday at the Gator Bowl. National coverage will begin at 3:30 PM ET on CBS. Click here for the official Florida vs. Georgia smack thread.

Texas vs. Texas Tech
Texas is completing the final leg of their gauntlet schedule; they defeated: then-No.1 Oklahoma on Oct. 11, then-No. 11 Missouri on Oct. 18, then-No.7 Oklahoma State last week, and now face No. 6 Texas Tech in Lubbock on Saturday evening. Another week, another Heisman Trophy candidate will line up against the Longhorn defense. Red Raiders quarterback Graham Harrell has thrown for 3147 yards with 28 touchdown passes on the season. The winner of this contest will have the inside track to win the Big 12 South title, a division that features four teams ranked in the top nine of this week’s BCS bowl standings. National coverage will begin at 8PM ET on ABC. Click here for the official Texas vs. Texas Tech smack thread.

Dallas Cowboys vs. New York Giants
Dallas Cowboys had home-field advantage throughout the NFC playoffs last season, thanks in large part to a pair of victories over the New York Giants that propelled them to a NFC East title. But the Cowboys postseason run came to a quick end, as the Giants defeated them during their improbable run to a Super Bowl title. The Cowboys are hurting coming into this week’s game, with quarterback Tony Romo missing his third straight game because of a broken right pinkie and tight end Jason Witten will be a game-time playing decision due to his broken ribs. 40-year-old Brad Johnson will be in charge of the Cowboys offense, and he has looked his age at times on the field. He has been sacked six times in two weeks, and against a Giant defense that leads the NFL with 26 sacks, Johnson’s lack of mobility will be a major concern for the Dallas coaching staff. Regional coverage will begin at 4:15 PM ET on Fox.

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