Saints @ 49ers, Saturday, 4:30PM ET
It’s no secret that the Saints have been a different team on the road this year than at home. As I pointed out in this week’s edition of “Five Questions…,” they’ve outscored opponents 329 to 143 at home this season and only 218 to 196 on the road. Sean Payton has seemingly been more conservative with his play calling as Drew Brees has thrown less touchdowns (29 to 17), more interceptions (6 to 8), has a lower average per pass attempt (8.75 to 7.99), and has been sacked more (8 to 16) on the road than at home. Gregg Williams’ defense doesn’t play with the same confidence that it does inside the Superdome either. It’s not that the Saints are a bad road team (they were 5-3 during the regular season), but they’re not the juggernaut they are at home. On the other side, there’s not much that San Francisco doesn’t do well defensively. They’re outstanding against the run, they get after the quarterback, and they’re solid in pass coverage. They also have a great special teams unit so if the Saints are sloppy on Saturday, they will fall. The question is whether or not the Niners will generate enough offense if the Saints start firing on all cylinders. San Fran doesn’t pass protect very well and if it can’t open up running lanes for Frank Gore, that’s when Alex Smith starts to get turnover-happy. It’ll be interesting to see how this matchup unfolds come Saturday.

Broncos @ Patriots, Saturday, 8:00PM ET
Tim Tebow better strap in tight because he’s not likely to see as much one-on-one coverage as Dick LeBeau showed him last week. Bill Belichick will likely keep a safety over top of Demaryius Thomas at all times and force Tebow to go through all of his reads. If he doesn’t and he starts chucking the ball up thinking he can beat New England deep like he did Pittsburgh, he could be in for a long night. On the other side, it’ll be interesting to see if Denver’s stout defense can rattle Tom Brady. One of the biggest reasons the Patriots lost in their first postseason game the last two years is because Baltimore and New York harassed Brady to know end. But New England’s pass protection has been better this season than it was last year, so if the Broncos can’t generate pressure then Brady could eat them alive. It would behoove Denver to jump out to an early lead like Miami and Buffalo did on New England the past two weeks. But with Tebow running the show, that could prove to be difficult.

Texans @ Ravens, Sunday, 1:00PM ET
This game is all about Houston’s defense. If Wade Phillips’ unit can’t slow down Ray Rice, force turnovers and create good field position for the offense, then the Texans’ season will end in Baltimore this Sunday. The Ravens’ run defense is the best in the league and they were stout in pass coverage as well. The combination of Arian Foster and T.J. Yates isn’t going to get the best of Terrell Suggs and Ray Lewis. The best Yates can do is not turn the ball over and take what Baltimore gives him. Otherwise, if he’s forced to make plays then the Texans are in trouble. The Ravens were unbeatable at home this season and there are mismatches that they can take advantage of this weekend. As long as they don’t get caught looking ahead, it’s hard to envision the Ravens falling on Sunday.

Giants @ Packers, Sunday, 4:30PM ET
If the Giants play with the same confidence, swagger and determination this week at Lambeau as they did last Sunday versus the Falcons, then they have a shot. In fact, they already have a shot. The Giants have always been a dangerous underdog and when they think everyone is against them, they raise the level of their play ten-fold. It’s no coincidence that the Giants have played their best football over the past three weeks. They’re healthy and the strength of their defense (i.e. their defensive line) is now fully intact. As I’ve written so many times before, the way to beat an elite quarterback like Aaron Rodgers is to pressure him with your front four. If Jason Pierre-Paul, Osi Umenyiora, Rocky Benard and Justin Tuck play with the same relentless attitude this week as they did the past three, the Giants will have a shot to pull off the upset. Because their offense is certainly capable of matching Green Bay score-for-score thanks to that receiving corps and the Packers’ suspect defense. That said, Green Bay will not hand the game over on a silver platter like Atlanta did last Sunday. The Falcons played not to lose. They were timid – scared even. Rodgers plays with reckless abandon and he’s not going to be afraid to take shots downfield against New York’s vulnerable secondary unlike Matt Ryan, who never once tried to throw deep. Atlanta never adjusted its opening game plan either. You can expect Mike McCarthy to change things up if the Giants are getting the better of the Packers early on. This is going to be a great matchup and a wild ride.

It’s the playoffs, where team matters more than individual players. But there are several key players that hold their team’s hopes in their hands this weekend and we’ve listed eight of them (one for each team) below.

In no particular order…

1. Terrell Suggs, Ravens
The Ravens have been waiting for this guy to return to form and he finally has. Suggs looks hungry, motivated and determined to get the Ravens to a Super Bowl. If Baltimore’s front seven is able to take away Rashard Mendenhall and force the Steelers to be one-dimensional this Saturday, then Suggs needs to get after Ben Roethlisberger. Mike Wallace is a true homerun threat and can score from anywhere on the field, so Suggs and Co. can’t give Big Ben time to throw. Getting pressure on the quarterback is always vital in football, especially in the postseason where one or two plays can decide the outcome of a game.

2. Troy Polamalu, Steelers
I realize this is an obvious one but I don’t care: Polamalu is the key to whether or not the Steelers will be playing in the Super Bowl in a couple of weeks. He’s vital to their defense because when he’s not on the field, it’s a completely different unit. When the Steelers and Ravens met in Pittsburgh late in the season, it was his forced fumble of Joe Flacco that set up Pittsburgh’s offense to score the eventual game-winning touchdown. He’s a playmaker in every sense of the word but he’s also been battling an Achilles/ankle injury so he’s not 100 percent. If he’s able to fly around the field and create havoc like he normally does, then Baltimore will have a tough time moving the ball this weekend.

3. James Starks (Packers)
The football world is now enamored with this young man – and for good reason. The past two games, Starks has given Green Bay something it’s been searching for all year: balance. The Packers have already proven that they can win when Aaron Rodgers has to throw the ball but it’s much tougher on a defense when they can’t sit back in coverage on most downs. In the first meeting between the Packers and Falcons, Atlanta didn’t have to respect the run. But after Starks rushed for 123 yards on 23 carries last weekend against the Eagles, the Falcons may not have the luxury of dropping extra defenders into coverage.

4. Michael Turner (Falcons)
While many people concentrate on the Matt Ryan vs. Aaron Rodgers matchup, the real key to the Falcons’ success this weekend is Turner. The Saints game proved that if Turner can’t get rolling, the Falcons’ offense is vulnerable. If Atlanta can’t put together a few long drives where it grinds out yards, chews up the clock and keeps Rodgers on the sidelines, they could be in trouble. The last thing the Falcons want is a shootout.

5. Raheem Brock, Seahawks
Brock continues to be one of the more underrated defensive linemen in the game. Last week against the Saints, he had four solo tackles, one sack, two tackles for loss and one QB hit. The key to slowing Mike Martz’s offense is to rattle Jay Cutler. As everyone knows, when he’s constantly under duress he will make mistakes. He may take a sack or two at first, but it’s his nature to want to make a play by throwing the ball. A couple of turnovers could be the difference in whether or not the Hawks can pull off another upset. Brock and Chris Clemons need to be active all day and they must get to Cutler to disrupt his rhythm.

6. Brian Urlacher (Bears)
Urlacher is the key to Chicago’s success on most Sundays but he’ll especially be vital this Sunday against a veteran in Matt Hasselbeck who understands what it takes to beat the Tampa 2. Urlacher is by far the most important piece of the Tampa 2 scheme because of the position he plays. The middle linebacker is responsible not only for stopping the run, but for also dropping back into coverage and allowing his safeties to spread out in deep halves, and the outside linebackers to cover underneath. In the Bears’ first meeting with the Seahawks, Hasselbeck threw for 242 yards and a touchdown with no interceptions. If he has that kind of success again, Seattle could pull off its second straight upset. He knows how to attack Chicago’s weaknesses, which is why Urlacher needs to play a perfect game so that those around him can be where they need to be and not give Hasselbeck easy passing windows.

7. LaDainian Tomlinson & Shonn Greene (Jets)
The Jets and Falcons have the same mission this weekend: run the ball and keep the opposing offense off the field. For the Jets, that’s where Tomlinson and Greene come in. The pair combined to rush for 152 yards on 35 carries last weekend against the Colts. They wore down Indy’s smallish front seven in the second half and frustrated Peyton Manning by leaving him on the sidelines. The Jets want to limit the times that Tom Brady can burn them and the only way they can do that is by keeping him off the field. They must grind the tempo of the game down and as usual, win an ugly game.

8. Danny Woodhead, Patriots
Woodhead is the ultimate weapon in New England’s offense because he’s so shifty that he often gets lost in the chaos. Then all of a sudden he’s running past you for a five or seven yard gain. Perhaps his biggest attribute is that he can be utilized as a runner or receiver. If the Jets account for him as a running back, then Tom Brady can motion him outside and then he becomes yet another receiving target to beat New York’s 3-4 outside linebacker coverage. If the Jets account for him as a receiver, then Brady can slide him into the backfield and force New York to make adjustments quickly. It’s no wonder why Rex Ryan is kicking himself for letting this lighting rod get away.

Following defensive coordinator Rex Ryan’s departure from Baltimore after the 2008 season, pundits started to question whether or not the Ravens could still be a dominant defensive unit without him. But after finishing 2009 with a winning record, making the playoffs and absolutely obliterating the Patriots in the Wild Card Round, it’s clear that as long as the Ravens have players like Terrell Suggs and Ray Lewis, Baltimore’s defense will be just fine.

Suggs was kind enough to chat with us recently about what the key to the Ravens’ success was last season, what it’s like to play alongside Ray Lewis and what ultimately made him decide to stay in Baltimore when he signed a new deal last offseason. Since he knows a thing or two about the topic, Terrell also broke down what makes a great pass rusher and whether or not he’d like to see the Ravens acquire Julius Peppers and/or Brandon Marshall this offseason.

The Scores Report: Hi, this is Anthony.

Terrell Suggs: How you doing, this is Terrell Suggs.

TSR: Hey Terrell, how you doing today?

TS: I’m doing great – doing great.

TSR: Good, how’s the offseason going so far?

TS: It’s going, you know? I’m about to get after it.

TSR: Will you start working out again soon or are you still giving your body time to heal after playing a full season?

TS: Yeah, I’m ready to start up again. I played basketball the other day and I scored 23 and 11.

TSR: Nice!

TS: Nice little double-double, you know.

TSR: (Laughs)

TS: (Laughs)

TSR: Good to hear that you’ve recovered from the injuries last season, I know you missed a couple of games due to a sprained MCL. Are you still suffering any effects from the injury?

TS: Nah, I’ve got the best trainer in the universe, so he got me all healed.

TSR: A lot of pundits thought the Ravens would take a step back last year, but you proved them wrong. What was the secret to the team’s success last season?

TS: That was the first time our defense has really been questioned, you know? Once (John Harbaugh) held a meeting with the entire team – not just the defense – and said look guys, all we have is us so let’s have fun and just see where we end up. A weight was lifted after that, so we just went out and played well those last couple games and made it to the playoffs.

TSR: What’s it like playing next to Ray Lewis? Give me a moment when you stepped back and were amazed at what he can do on a football field.

TS: Well, you can determine how good a player is by whom he makes good or great around him. I can definitely say that my career has benefited tremendously by having him as a teammate. It’s an awesome thing because in college, I always thought that I had to be the one to make the play. But now I feel like I have to make the play or else no one is going to know I was even on the field because Ray Lewis is making all the God damn plays. Oops – excuse me.

TSR: (Laughs) You’re good – we’re a blog!

TS: So you know, you want to contribute and not let him do all the work. If it were up to him, he’d make every tackle.

TSR: How did you guys cope with losing Bart Scott and Jim Leonhard last offseason? Do you feel as though other guys stepped up and filled the gaps?

TS: I don’t think we’re missing any pieces on the defense. However, Jim Leonhard kind of represented everything the Ravens’ defense is – our team is an underdog, but we’re always going to find a way to win. That’s Jim Leonhard in a nutshell. He’s a small guy but he has the heart of a lion and he plays like he’s 7-feet tall. The one year we had him, he came in and played his heart out for us. And as far as Bart, that was kind of a personal loss just for the simple fact that he was like my best friend for seven years. From the moment I got there he took me under his wing. I can’t hit like him, but he taught me how to play fast and destroy the man in front of me. Me, Bart and Adalius Thomas had a brotherhood – they called us “Organized Chaos” – and one year all four of us made it to the Pro Bowl. The whole linebacker corps got to go.

TSR: That really speaks to the success you guys have had over the years.

TS: Yeah. But Bart, he’s an amazing player. Who knows what kind of superstar Bart Scott would have been had he not been in the shadow of Ray Lewis, know what I mean?

TSR: For sure. With players like you and Ray Lewis being on the same defense, it was easy for Bart Scott to get lost in the mix.

TS: Yeah, the year we had a linebacker unit of me, Adalius Thomas, Bart and Ray Lewis we went 13-3. It was a pretty amazing year.

TSR: Absolutely. Speaking of which, Adalius Thomas, who is one of those defenders – and there have been others – that hasn’t had the same amount of success as he did when he played in Baltimore. When you re-signed with the Ravens last year, did that enter your mind at all? Did that factor into your decision even a little?

TS: (Laughs) No! I can go play anywhere, man!

TSR: (Laughs) No disrespect intended! But it’s a topic that gets brought up a lot when it comes to Baltimore defenders.

TS: No, I stayed in Baltimore because I’m a big fan of my team and I’m a big fan of the city. We have the best fans in the world and they’ve embraced me as one of their own – as if I were born in Baltimore from the time I got there. So that’s why I stayed. But I think guys go to other places and people kind of feel a certain way towards Baltimore defenders, you know, because we are aggressive and we are very physical and we play that style of defense. We’re like a bully and I think guys – like coaches per say – kind of get that chip on their shoulder when they get a Baltimore defender. But I don’t know, I can’t speak for them because I’ve never played for anyone but Baltimore. But if you look at Bart Scott, he’s continued where he left off and had a dominant year. I think Adalius Thomas is still a dominant player, so I don’t know – that’s something you’d have to ask another Baltimore guy.

TSR: I always have to ask defenders this because I think it’s a fun question: What’s the hardest hit you’ve ever laid on a ballcarrier?

TS: I would definitely say the hit on Curtis Martin, but I’m not much of a hitter. You know, I can pass rush and I can drop in pass coverage but I leave the hitting to Ray Lewis and Bart Scott when Bart was on our team. But I would definitely say my hardest hit was on Curtis Martin against the Jets either in 2004 or 2005, I’m not sure.

TSR: What’s the key to being a successful pass rusher in the NFL?

TS: Relentlessness. You’ve got to always keep going and I think when you have a good core of guys around you, it also makes you a great pass rusher. If you look at all the dominant pass rushers, they had somewhat of a duo. You know, they had another guy there, a sidekick if you will, to help them be dominant so teams just couldn’t key on him. Or, a whole defensive line, a blitz package, linebackers coming off the edge – anything will help a pass rusher be dominant. It takes more than just him to be a dominant pass rusher.

TSR: Julius Peppers is a free agent this year and Ozzie Newsome recently said that he would like to give the Ravens’ pass rush a boost for next season. How fun would it be to play with Julius Peppers next year?

TS: That would be awesome. That would definitely be a big step up for our team and put us back to where we were in 2006 with having so many pass rushers that teams couldn’t stop the blitz or the pass rush. I think he would be a great addition to our team. If we were to pick up two pieces for our team, I would say it would be a big receiver and another defensive end/linebacker/pass rusher. I think that would be awesome.

TSR: Speaking of receivers, would you welcome a guy like Brandon Marshall?

TS: Absolutely. Absolutely, because every football player wants to win and I think he would understand that if he stayed on the field, then we would have a good chance to compete for a Super Bowl. With the offensive line we have building, with our young quarterback coming around, and just adding a great player like (Marshall), it would definitely complement our team.

TSR: Has it been fun to watch players like Joe Flacco and Ray Rice develop over the last two years?

TS: It’s been great watching them because they’re younger than us, so to see them go through that roller coaster – those ups and downs during a season…it’s just great to see them play. You know, when you become a fan of your own team you’ve really got something special. I like to watch those guys play and do their thing.

TSR: Is your alma mater Arizona State on the right track?

TS: I don’t know – I hope so.

TSR: (Laughs)

TS: I’ve got all the faith in the world in coach Erickson. I watched the documentary of him at “The U” and if we could have any kind of success that they had, it would be a step up for us.

TSR: I appreciate your chatting with us today Terrell and I won’t take up much more of your time, but give me a prediction for the Ravens next season.

TS: It’s just going to be exciting. I can’t give you numbers or anything like that, but it will be exciting. We will be a team to watch in 2010.

TSR: Well, I wish you a healthy offseason and keep up the good work on the basketball court.

TS: (Laughs) All right!

TSR: Thanks, Terrell.

Baltimore Ravens at New England Patriots
1:00 pm ET
TV—CBS

Last season, the Ravens began their playoff journey as a wild card by upsetting the AFC East champion Dolphins, and then upsetting the top seeded Tennessee Titans, before losing to the eventual champion Steelers in the AFC championship game. This season the Ravens went 10-6 and eked into the playoffs in Week 17, but their losses have mostly been close games, including a 27-21 defeat in New England in Week 4. The Ravens’ fifth ranked rushing attack is led by RB Ray Rice, and they will once again use their stout defense (ranked third overall) to try and stop Tom Brady, Randy Moss and company. The Patriots will try to run the ball to control the clock and keep it away from Rice, and also try to use said running game to allow Brady and his receivers to stretch the field. Of course, everyone knows that Wes Welker is out for the season after jamming his knee into the Reliant Stadium turf last Sunday. But did anyone expect rookie WR (and 7th round draft pick) Julian Edelman to catch 10 passes for 103 yards and run up and down the field looking like a Welker clone doing it? Not really. Still, Brady didn’t have guys named Lewis, Suggs and Reed lining up on the other side last week, and those guys in purple jerseys could force him into making a few mistakes. The bottom line, however, is that the Patriots are 8-0 at home this season, and a Bill Belichick coached team is a tough out in the playoffs.
THE PICK: PATRIOTS 26, RAVENS 17

Green Bay Packers at Arizona Cardinals
4:40 pm ET
TV—FOX

Amazingly, this game is the third contest of the weekend that is a rematch of a Week 17 game, and like the Philly/Dallas game, this one is also in the same building, at University of Phoenix Stadium in Arizona. Will it be the same outcome though? Last week, the Packers played all of their starters in annihilating the defending NFC champs 33-7, but Cardinals coach Ken Whisenhunt did not use star QB Kurt Warner after the first quarter. Still, how much of that crap about tipping your hand before playing an opponent again do you believe? This is the NFL, and the team that executes their game plan usually wins. Packers’ coach Mike McCarthy believed that letting Aaron Rodgers and his receivers stretch the field against the Cardinals’ 23rd ranked pass defense, as well as mixing in a heavy dose of Ryan Grant and Ahman Green to run the ball and keep it away from Warner and Matt Leinart was an effective strategy. Of course, McCarthy’s Packers boast the #1 rushing defense in the NFL and the #5 passing defense, so they feel like they can stop whoever is trying to move the ball against them anyway, especially if star CB Charles Woodson suits up after aggravating a shoulder injury last week. Remember, though, that the Cardinals are recently playoff tested, and came within a brilliant Santonio Holmes touchdown catch from winning it all less than a year ago.
THE PICK: PACKERS 33, CARDINALS 30

According to the Baltimore Sun, Ochocinco sent gift baskets containing deodorant to the Ravens’ secondary and to linebackers Terrell Suggs and Ray Lewis.

Chad Ochocinco, the Bengals’ flamboyant wide receiver, said today on 105.7 FM that he sent gift baskets containing deodorant to the Ravens’ secondary and to linebackers Terrell Suggs and Ray Lewis.

“I not only sent them gift baskets, but I sent them something they could use so they don’t sweat,” Ochocinco said.

The Ravens and Bengals meet at 1 p.m. Sunday in Cincinnati.

Ray had this to say in response:

Not to take the fun out of this post, but I don’t think it was wise for Ocho to poke an angry dog with a stick. Considering the source, I’m sure Baltimore won’t get too riled up over the gift baskets, but the Ravens already have revenge on their minds after the Bengals beat them a couple weeks ago at their home turf and will desperately be seeking a win this weekend.

I think this is the week the Bengals start missing what Antwan Odom brought to the field. They didn’t need him in their Week 7 trouncing of the Bears, but the Ravens’ offense has been firing on all cylinders and just routed a good Denver defense last Sunday. Even for how good Cincinnati’s defense is, they still need the front four to generate some pressure or else Joe Flacco will pick them apart.

While they’ve started the year 2-0 and have a winnable game against the Browns coming up this Sunday, all is not right with the Ravens.

After two games, Baltimore’s secondary has given up 580 yards through the air and 50 points. That’s 290 passing yards and 25 points per game, which are two big reasons why the Ravens currently own the fourth worst defense in the league right now.

That ranking is jarring considering the Ravens have had one of the most feared defenses in the league for almost a decade and employ the likes of All-Pro safety Ed Reed in their secondary. But it’s apparent that Baltimore’s D is still transitioning from Rex Ryan to new defensive coordinator Greg Mattison’s scheme and it might take a while for the unit to gel.

In trying to limit the effectiveness of the Chargers’ screens and draw plays, Mattison used a lot of one-deep coverage last Sunday in San Diego, which allowed Darren Sproles, Vincent Jackson, Antonio Gates and Malcolm Floyd to make big plays in the passing game. Had Mattison used more two-deep looks, the Ravens might have limited the big plays.

The coverage woes aren’t all of Mattison’s fault, however. Fabian Washington has play more aggressive and Dawan Landry must get better in coverage so that Reed doesn’t have to cover so much ground.

Defensive ends Terrell Suggs and Trevor Pryce also have to do a better job of generating pressure if Baltimore is going to continue to put its cornerbacks on an island. If opposing quarterbacks have time to throw, they’re going to have a multitude of success moving the ball vertically like Philip Rivers did last week, because the Ravens’ cornerbacks have little to no help over top in coverage.

The Ravens have enough quality players to figure out their defensive woes. And with the non-threatening Browns coming to town, Baltimore’s issues won’t be on display this Sunday. But in two weeks, the Ravens make a trip to Foxboro to take on the Patriots, who will no doubt test the resolve of Baltimore’s pass defense.

Last month we started looking at last season’s statistics for position players in fantasy football land, and today we’ll look at a position many often overlook. That’s fantasy defenses, which can sometimes put up just enough points to earn your team a victory once in a while. It’s always smart to try and grab one of the top units, although as we’ve seen before, things change, sometimes drastically, from year to year with fantasy D’s. Me? I like to grab my defense before my kicker. This list is based on point totals from one of my leagues, so keep in mind that stats vary from year to year.

1. Baltimore Ravens—The Ravens’ defense is perennially awesome, and we’ll find out for sure how much of that was due to former coordinator Rex Ryan, who is now the head honcho for the Jets. Ryan took plenty of players with him too, like LB Bart Scott and S Jim Leonhard, but the Ravens still have Ray Lewis, Ed Reed and Terrell Suggs. Reed just keeps getting better every year, and his sick nose for the ball is one reason the Ravens had a league high 26 picks. They will keep scoring low as always, but their 34 sacks last season isn’t much to get excited about. Bottom line: The Ravens won’t be a number one this year, but are still top 10.

2. Philadelphia Eagles—Sadly, coordinator Jim Johnson passed away this week, though he was on leave from the team anyway. Look for the Eagles to continue Johnson’s schemes however, which means blitz, blitz and more blitz. What that means to you is sack points, and while Brian Dawkins is now in Denver, the secondary is still strong with corners Sheldon Brown and Asante Samuel and safeties Quintin Mikell and Quintin Demps. Bottom line: 48 sacks is a lot, and the Eagles may not match that in ’09, but they aren’t going to suck by any means.

3. Pittsburgh Steelers—You don’t win the Super Bowl without a stout unit, and this won finished second in the league with 51 sacks, led by two awesome linebackers, NFL Defensive Player of the Year James Harrison, and LaMarr Woodley. The Steelers also ranked #1 in points allowed and yard allowed, with 20 picks and three defensive scores. Bottom line: With the front seven intact, this unit may be the top defense taken in many FF drafts.

4. Tennessee Titans—If you live in Nashville like I do, you saw this team play a lot, and let me tell you….their games are pretty boring to watch. Well, unless you like 13-10 scores every week. Punishing DT Albert Haynesworth is now in Washington, but Tony Brown and Kyle Vanden Bosch are no slouches, and CB Cortland Finnegan is a ball hawk like Ed Reed. Bottom line: More boring games for me, more fantasy points for you.

5. Chicago Bears—Their 22 interceptions probably had a lot to do with the Bears finishing as high as they did in 2008, but the Monsters of the Midway with just 28 sacks? To put that in perspective, the Saints also tallied 28 sacks. And besides Brian Urlacher, go ahead try to name five players on this defense. The Bears gave up 350 points in ’08, which is over 100 more than the Titans, Steelers and Ravens. Still, it’s the Bears. Bottom line: You can pick them, but I’m only picking them as a bye week backup.

6. Tampa Bay Bucs—This is not the same unit that ranked in the top 10 in points allowed and yards allowed in 2008, with Jon Gruden gone and Raheem Morris at the helm. Derrick Brooks is gone as are Cato June and Jovan Haye, but the likes of DE Gaines Adams and the ageless CB Ronde Barber remain. How much of Gruden’s mark will be missed? Bottom line: With so much turnover in the front office and on the field, I’m not taking my chances with these guys.

7. Green Bay Packers—Everyone expected big things from the Pack in 2008, but it was their offense, led by QB Aaron Brooks and WR Greg Jennings that were the bright spots on a mediocre team. So now with new D-coordinator Dom Capers and his 3-4 in place, things will look different at Lambeau. Aaron Kampman is now an outside linebacker, and BJ Raji and AJ Hawk are left to clog up the middle. Kampman will likely have more sacks, but how will the 3-4 affect overall fantasy points? Bottom line: I’m going out on a limb—the Pack will be much better defensively, and could be a fantasy sleeper.

8. New York Jets—DT Kris Jenkins is a monster, and Rex Ryan brought along a few toys, like Bart Scott and Jim Leonhard, as we mentioned earlier. Eric Mangini also took some players with him to Cleveland, but the Jets will still keep scores low, rack up sacks, and score on defense (5 defensive TDs in 2008). CB Darrelle Revis had 5 picks and keeps getting better. Bottom line: Proceed with caution, but still a Top 10 D.

9. Indianapolis Colts—Even with Tony Dungy gone and Jim Caldwell running the team, the Colts still give up way too much ground on the ground. Thing is, they are opportunistic, and they have Dwight Freeney attacking the QB and a bunch of under the radar players (like LB Gary Brackett) wreaking havoc (30 forced fumbles and 5 defensive scores in 2008). Bottom line: The Colts’ D will keep them in games, meaning these guys will continue to play hard and put up decent fantasy points.

10. Minnesota Vikings—These guys are damn near as good as the Ravens, led on the line by Jared Allen and DT’s Pat and Kevin Williams (45 team sacks in 2008). 12 picks from this unit is baffling, as is allowing 333 points, but they can be better. Bottom line: The Vikes may not be a true top 10 this season, so I’d take my chances with the revamped Giants or the sack-happy Cowboys before them.

Teams that aren’t on this list you’ll want to draft: New York Giants, San Diego Chargers, Dallas Cowboys, Washington Redskins.