It didn’t take long today for the Bowl Championship Series to get a significant shake up. Sure, we already know who’s going to play in the national title game — because if we’ve learned nothing this year, it’s that every game matters … unless you play in the SEC — but the other games still were up for grabs today.

Houston, which had gone through the season unbeaten and found itself in the top 10, had the inside track to the Sugar Bowl as the top non-AQ school in the country with a ranking inside the top 12. I’m not sure if today’s loss to Southern Mississippi would knock the Cougars outside of the top 12 (it probably should), but it doesn’t matter, as they’re not Conference USA champions, meaning they’d have to get in as an at-large. Good luck with that.

So who gets the spot? Well, if Houston falls behind Michigan, it’s likely enough to get the Wolverines into the top 14, making them a shoe-in for an at-large spot. Then again, Michigan is likely to get there anyway, and most projections have them playing in the Sugar Bowl against Houston already. TCU would be the non-AQ school with the best chance, as it sits at No. 18 in the BCS standings right now, and only needs to get to No. 16 to earn an auto-bid. Head spinning yet? If a non-AQ school wins its conference and finishes in the top 16, it can get an automatic berth in a BCS game provided the champion from at least one AQ conference is ranked below it. Thank you, Big East.

If TCU doesn’t jump two spots (which is possible but not all that likely), then an at-large selection would fill the slot. The most likely choices are Boise State, Kansas State and, if it loses today, Oklahoma State.

As for the Big East, Cincinnati’s win against UConn leaves a three-way tie at the top of the league, so the final BCS standings will determine who gets the bid. Barring something crazy, that will be West Virginia, which is currently the only Big East team in the top 25, sitting at No. 23.

Almost a year ago we decided to try to quantify the stature of college football programs so that we could rank them against one another. (Click here for the 2010 Rankings.) Then our football guru, Anthony Stalter, wrote a little bit about each program and the direction that it’s headed.

Here’s how the total points are determined — 20 points for a national championship, 10 for a BCS title game loss, seven for a BCS bowl win, five for a BCS bowl loss, five for a BCS conference championship, three for a mid-major conference championship, two for a BCS conference runner-up and one for a major bowl appearance (i.e. a bowl that has a recent payout of more than $2 million, so for 2011 that would be Capital One, Outback, Chick-fil-A, Cotton, Gator, Insight, Holiday, Champs Sports and Alamo.) You’ll see the total points in parenthesis after the team’s name.

We put some thought into the point values for each accomplishment, paying special attention to how the point values are relative to one another. For example, we figured that one national championship would equate to four BCS conference championships, or three BCS bowl wins. We only looked at the last five years, as college football has increasingly become a fluid and fickle sport, and that’s about how far back a recruit will go when deciding amongst a list of schools.

Lastly, since a program is so dependent on the guy in charge, we added or subtracted points if the program saw an upgrade or downgrade at the head coach position in the last five years. A max of 10 points would be granted (or docked) based on the level of upgrade or downgrade. Again, we tried to quantify the hire relative to the program’s other accomplishments. For example, hiring Nick Saban is probably worth two BCS bowl appearances, or 10 points. (Sure, he might lead Alabama to more, but he also might bolt for another job in a year or two.)

So, without further ado, here are the rankings. Every year we’ll go through and update the numbers based on what the program did that year (while throwing out the oldest year of data), so don’t fret if your team isn’t quite where you want them right now. Everyone has a chance to move up.

1. Ohio State (58)

Previous Rank: #2 (+1)
Some college football fans will take issue with the Buckeyes being No. 1 because of their “soft schedule.” But this is a team that has dominated its conference five of the past six years and has finished no worse than second in each of the past six seasons. They’ve also appeared in two title games (though they lost both) and nine straight BCS bowl games, winning the Rose Bowl and Sugar Bowl in the past two years. They’ve got an interesting season coming up though. Five of their players including quarterback Terrelle Pryor, running back Dan Herron and receiver DeVier Posey will miss the first five games next year after being suspended. Can the Buckeyes stay unscathed until those players return?

2. Florida (51)

Previous Rank: #1 (-1)
If it weren’t for Urban Meyer leaving the program (and their lousy 2010 season), the Gators would probably still be ranked No. 1. They have three conference championships and two national championships in two years, but the lose of Meyer hurts big-time in these rankings. But don’t fret Florida fans, if Will Muschamp gets the program back on the right track then the Gators won’t be at No. 2 for long.

3. Oklahoma (47)

Previous Rank: #7 (+4)
The Sooners shot up our rankings quickly, moving from seventh to third in just one season. Of course, finally being able to win a BCS game under Bob Stoops certainly helped. Even if the victory came against overmatched UConn in the Fiesta Bowl, the BCS bowl win coupled with down years by Texas, Alabama and USC catapulted Oklahoma into the top 3. (They also now have four Big 12 championships in the last five years.) Whether or not OU remains ranked this high might be dependent on whether or not Texas rebounds after suffering its first losing season under Mack Brown. If the Longhorns stay down, there’s no reason to think the Sooners won’t rule the roost for a while, especially with Nebraska heading to the Big Ten.

4. Alabama (43)

Previous Rank: #4 (unchanged)
After winning the national championship in 2010, we thought Nick Saban’s team would steadily climb in these rankings every year. But ‘Bama took a step back this season record-wise, falling to 10-3 and settling for an appearance in the Capital One Bowl. The low point came in the final regular season game of the year when the Tide lost to Auburn 28-27 at home despite jumping out to a 24-0 lead in the first half. Still, Saban won’t have his team “down” (we use quotation marks around the word “down” seeing as how ‘Bama still had a winning year) for long and we suspect them to push Ohio State, Florida and Oklahoma in the short term.

T-5. LSU (35)

Previous Rank: #6 (+1)
It’s been three years now since Les Miles took his team to a BCS bowl game. The Tigers won the 2008 national championship but since then, their offense has sputtered since JaMarcus Russell left the program to become the biggest bust since Ryan Leaf graced the NFL with his presence. Maybe their 41-point outburst in the Cotton Bowl against Texas A&M is a sign that LSU finally has found some offense but if not, they’re ceiling will probably remain right where it is.

T-5. Oregon (35)

Previous Rank: #13 (+8)
The Ducks jumped eight spots from last year thanks to yet another amazing coaching job by Chip Kelly. While their loss to Auburn in the title game stung, the pure fact that they appeared in the national championship was enough to catapult them into the top 5 (coupled with a Pac-10 title as well). Last year, we gave the Ducks two points for hiring Kelly but we bumped that up to seven this year because obviously the man can coach. Thanks to Kelly’s high-powered offense, it looks like many more Pac-10 titles are in Oregon’s future (and maybe that elusive national championship).

7. Virginia Tech (34)

Previous Rank: #9 (+2)
The Hokies got back on track this year by scooping up their fourth conference championship in the past six years. They also made their fourth BCS bowl appearance in the last six years, but were routed by Stanford in the Orange Bowl. Frank Beamer’s team should continue to compete for ACC titles, but the Hokies still seem like a long shot to make a national title appearance.

8. Auburn (28)

Previous Rank: unranked
Auburn didn’t even have a spot in these rankings last year before Cam Newton came around and set the college football world ablaze with his Heisman Trophy-winning talent. An undefeated season, a SEC championship and a win over Oregon in the national title game later and now the Tigers have a seat in our top 10. But will they stay here? Newton is jetting off to the NFL, as is defensive tackle Nick Fairley. The Tigers could crash and burn next season playing in a tough conference.

9. USC (26)

Previous Rank: #5 (-4)
We wrote last year that USC could fall in these rankings after Pete Carroll decided to leave the program, but little did we know the NCAA would hand the Trojans a two-year bowl ban for violating rules. Now USC can’t compete in a BCS bowl for the next two years, which certainly hurts the Trojans in these rankings. So did their 8-5 season last year, which included embarrassing losses to Washington, Oregon State and – gasp! – Notre Dame. Seeing as how they can’t compete in a bowl again next year, this won’t be the last time the Trojans drop in our rankings.

10. Texas (24)

Previous Rank: #3 (-7)
Can you say crash and burn? A year after making a national title appearance, the Longhorns suffered their first losing season under head coach Mack Brown. They went 5-7 overall, 2-6 in the Big 12 and shockingly finished last in the conference. It was the first time a Brown-led Longhorn team failed to qualify for a bowl and after losing Will Muschamp to the Gators in the offseason, there’s no doubt change is coming. Chances are UT will recover, but how high will they climb the Big 12 standings in one year?

11. Boise State (23)

Previous Rank: #8 (-3)
2010 didn’t go as planned for the Broncos. Things started off well enough, as Boise won its first 10 games, which included a 33-30 upset over No. 10 Virginia Tech in the opening week. But Nevada shocked the Broncos in the second to last week of the regular season and their slim national championship hopes went out the window. They settled for the Las Vegas Bowl, where they beat Utah 26-3. The Broncos will get their chance at redemption when they join the MWC next season, even though their biggest opponent, TCU, will be heading for the Big East in two years.

T-12. West Virginia (18)

Previous Rank: #9 (-3)
The Mountaineers took a step back in our rankings after struggling in a bad Big East. They still had a winning season but they watched UConn win the conference and settled for the Champs Sports Bowl, where they were thumped by NC State. Losing the explosive Noel Devine to the NFL won’t help their offense in 2011.

T-12. TCU (18)

Previous Rank: #20 (+8)
TCU makes a huge leap in the rankings after qualifying for their second consecutive BCS bowl and beating Wisconsin in Pasadena. The win over the Badgers was huge for Gary Patterson’s squad, which mowed through its soft schedule last year only to be embarrassed by a better Boise State team in the 2010 Fiesta Bowl. The Frogs proved this time around that they weren’t going to settle for just a conference championship. The next two years will tell a lot about Patterson’s team. Boise State joins the MWC next year and then in 2012, it’s off to the Big East for TCU. It’s time to find out how good this program can really be.

14. Nebraska (15)

Previous Rank: #16 (+2)
The Cornhuskers moved up in our rankings after finishing as the Big 12’s runner up, but there’s no doubt 2010 didn’t go the way the Nebraska faithful thought it would. They lost at home to a bad Texas team in mid October and then an injury to quarterback Taylor Martinez cost them a win against Texas A&M in November. They fought hard in the Big 12 Championship Game before losing to Oklahoma, but then didn’t bother to show up for the Holiday Bowl against Washington. But let’s not overlook how this team beat No. 14 Oklahoma State and No. 6 Missouri in back-to-back games in October and still finished a very respectable 10-4. They’ll have their work cut out for them next year in the Big Ten, but the Huskers are built for the conference and not having to face explosive offenses like Oklahoma State and Oklahoma should help their cause.

T-15. Georgia Tech (14)

Previous Rank: #13 (-2)
Georgia Tech only moved back two spots but if the Jackets have another year like they just did, then they’ll be moving back further next season. A year after making a BCS appearance, the Jackets played .500 ball in the regular season and then were held to only a touchdown by Air Force in the Independence Bowl. Losing Josh Nesbitt to injury certainly hurt Paul Johnson’s triple-option attack. But the Jackets had already lost three games prior to Nesbitt’s injury, which included an embarrassing 28-25 defeat to Kansas in mid September. Hopefully Johnson can resurrect things in 2011.

T-15. Penn State (14)

Previous Rank: #11 (-4)
Considering they replaced all three starting linebackers and their quarterback from a year ago, it’s not hard to see why Penn State took a step back in our rankings this year. But they held their own, especially considering they had to play Alabama, Iowa, Ohio State and Michigan State this season. Their loss at home to Illinois was unexpected but again, this was a young team that still found a way to win seven games with four ranked opponents on their schedule. They probably won’t win a Big Ten title next year, but the Lions will be competitive. They usually are under Joe Pa.

T-15. Wisconsin (14)

Previous Rank: unranked
Wisconsin cracks our rankings after putting together a great season, which included back-to-back wins over Ohio State and Iowa in October. If it weren’t for that Oct. 2 loss to Michigan State, the Badgers would have been in the national title discussion. The loss to TCU in the Rose Bowl hurt, but Wisconsin made a statement to the rest of the Big Ten that it isn’t going anywhere. It’s going to be fun to watch the Badgers compete against Ohio State and Nebraska next season.

T-18. Iowa (12)

Previous Rank: #17 (-1)
Iowa only drops one spot in our rankings but the Hawkeyes had one disastrous season. The loss to Arizona in the third week of the season hurt, as did the three-straight losses to Northwestern, Ohio State and 3-9 Minnesota. Then star receiver Derrell Johnson-Koulianos gets charged with operating a drug house (charges were later dropped) and starting running back Adam Robinson is suspended for violating team rules. Beating Missouri in the Insight Bowl was the one saving grace of the season, but that’s a far cry from topping Georgia Tech in the Orange Bowl one year earlier.

T-18. Arkansas (12)

Previous Rank: unranked
If they can successfully replace NFL prospect Ryan Mallett, we get the feeling that Arkansas will be a part of these rankings for years to come. The Razorbacks overcame losses to Alabama and Auburn earlier in the season to win six games down the stretch, including back-to-back victories over Mississippi State and LSU in November. A win over Ohio State in the Sugar Bowl was not to be, but clearly Bobby Petrino has this program heading in the right direction.

20. Michigan (11)

Previous Rank: unranked
Rich Rodriguez may have produced his first winning season in Ann Arbor, but embarrassing losses to Michigan State, Wisconsin, Ohio State and then Mississippi State in the Gator Bowl was all UM could bare. In three years, Rich Rod’s collective record against Ohio State and Michigan State was 0-6. That’s something new head coach Brady Hoke better change if he’s going to last long as Rich Rod’s replacement. He certainly has his work cut out for him, especially considering he needs to build a defense after the previous staff pretty much ignored that side of the ball for three seasons.

Fell out of the Top 20: Georgia, Cincinnati, Florida State, Notre Dame

2011 BCS Bowl Previews: BCS National Championship | Fiesta Bowl | Rose Bowl | Orange Bowl | Sugar Bowl

Date: Saturday, January 1 2011
Time: 4:30PM ET
TV: ESPN

Why Watch: This will be the Badgers first trip to Pasadena in 11 seasons, while the Horned Frogs will become the first team from a non-AQ league in the BCS era to play in the Rose Bowl. Both teams scored 520 points this year, which was tied for the fourth most in the nation. This will be a classic strength vs. strength matchup, as TCU allowed an average of just 11.4 points, 126.3 passing yards and 215.4 total yards per game this year, which were all tops in the FBS. They also held opponents to 89.2 rushing yards per game, which was the third-fewest in the country. The Badgers, meanwhile, were tied for fourth with 43.3 points per game (the same as TCU) and employ a three-headed monster in running backs James White (1,061 yards), John Clay (952) and Montee Ball (881). Can TCU’s speedy defense matchup with Wisconsin’s big bodies on the offensive line?

Game Facts: Wisconsin has won its last three Rose Bowl appearances, while this will be TCU’s first-ever trip to Pasadena. The Badgers are 11-10 all-time in bowls and they’ll be making their ninth-straight bowl appearance. They beat Miami 20-14 in the Champs Sports Bowl in Orlando last season. The Frogs are 11-14-1 all-time in bowls, but are 7-4 in bowl games under current head coach Gary Patterson. After winning their previous four bowl games, TCU was largely dominated by Boise State at last year’s Fiesta Bowl, even though the final score was, 17-10.

Key Player: Wayne Daniels, TCU.
Want to know if TCU can play with the big boys? We’ll learn a lot by watching Daniels try and get around 6-foot-7 beast of a man and Outland Trophy winner Gabe Carimi. Daniels was an All-American himself, and led TCU with 6.5 sacks this season. If Carimi is able to do to him what he’s been able to do to everyone else he’s gone up against this season (which is destroy them), then TCU might be in for a long day because that likely means Wisconsin won’t have trouble moving the ball. Daniels doesn’t necessarily have to win this battle, but he has to at least hold his own if TCU is going to win.

Odds: TCU -3
Wisconsin opened as a 3-point underdog and while the line dipped to 2.5 at some books, the point spread looks like it has settled in at 3. The over/under total opened at 56.5, but it’s already up to 58.5 as the public expects this to be a high-scoring affair. TCU finished the regular season with a 12-0 record and covered in seven of its 12 overall games. Wisconsin finished with just the one blemish on its record (at Michigan State), and covered in seven of its 12 games as well. The total went over in six of the Frogs’ 12 games, while it went over in eight of the Badgers’ 12 contests (with one push).

How Wisconsin can win: By doing things exactly like it has for the last seven weeks of the season. Since losing to Michigan State, Wisconsin has shown no mercy to opponents, beating them in the trenches and on the scoreboard. I doubt that Wisconsin will deviate much, if at all, from its punishing style. But one thing that tends to happen in a long bowl layoff is that teams lose a bit of the momentum they had in the regular season and coaches tend to over-think things. If they keep it simple and concentrate on simply winning the battles up front, then the Badgers could walk out of Pasadena as Rose Bowl champions.

Why TCU will win: The Horned Frogs are the better overall team. Wisconsin can score, there’s no doubt about that. But the defense is susceptible. Michigan State scored 34 points on the Badgers in their only loss, and Iowa put up 30 on them. TCU’s offense is better than both MSU and Iowa, as Andy Dalton is a much more consistent quarterback than either Kirk Cousins or Ricky Stanzi. The Horned Frogs also have one heck of a defense — the top defense in the country, actually — allowing just 11.4 points per game. Sure, the Horned Frogs didn’t play that tough of a schedule, but they destroyed everyone on it, with the exception of Oregon State (and even that game was never in doubt) and San Diego State, a game made closer by two late SDSU scores.

Prediction: TCU 28, Wisconsin 24

Contributors: Anthony Stalter and Paul Costanzo

The Mountain West is having itself a rough year. After losing Utah (Pac-12) and BYU (Independent) a couple of months ago, ESPN.com is now reporting that TCU will also leave the MWC to join the Big East in 2012.

The conference change allows TCU to play in an automatic BCS-qualifying league beginning in the 2012-13 school year. TCU currently plays in the Mountain West Conference, which does not have an automatic bid to the BCS and is going through some changes of its own. BYU and Utah are leaving the conference just as Boise State enters.

TCU would become the Big East’s ninth football team. The conference has extended an invitation to Villanova to become its 10th football member.

This is great for TCU and the Big East, but Boise State has to be having a “WTF?” moment. The Broncos joined the Mountain West in part because they thought it would improve their strength of schedule in the eyes of BCS voters. But now that Utah, TCU and BYU are all heading out of town, they probably would have been better served staying in the WAC in terms of SOS competition.

Maybe Boise should join the Big East, too.

I know it’s blasphemy in college football to even think it, but what if the conference that has ruled the sport for most of the last decade just isn’t that good this year?

Yes, there are still great athletes all over the field in these games. Yes, some of the best coaches in the country are leading these teams. But what exactly has the SEC done this year to prove that it’s worthy of being called the best conference in the country?

What are the conference’s big nonconference wins? LSU has two wins over other BCS conference teams, but those are against a scandal-ridden North Carolina team (a game the Tigers very nearly lost) and a mostly erratic West Virginia team. Alabama has a win over Penn State, but so what. Not only are the Nittany Lions down this year, but they were playing with a true freshman in his first road start.

The nation’s No. 2 team, Auburn, is even without a signature nonconference win. The Tigers struggled to put away a Clemson team that came into tonight 4-4 in the ACC.

I understand the difficulty of going through conference games, and that the physical play of the SEC is tough to go through week after week. But what, other than past performance, do we have to go on when judging the SEC this year?

If Auburn beats Alabama next week, it will go to the national title game, and that’s fine. I have no problem with that. But all the talk of a one-loss SEC team somehow finding its way into the title game seems based completely on what we’re used to, not what we’re seeing on the field.

If you want to bring past performance into it, how do you overlook Boise State, which hasn’t lost a game since the Poinsettia Bowl in 2008 against TCU? Or how about a TCU team that’s only loss over the last two years is that same Boise team in last year’s Fiesta Bowl?

I think everyone who’s voting should learn a lesson from the 2006 season, when many thought Michigan and Ohio State deserved a rematch in the title game because they had been so dominant all season. The problem was, the perceived tough games they played were all either in conference, or against teams with more tradition than punch (Notre Dame and Texas). Luckily, the voters voted against that and the Big Ten was exposed, oddly enough, by the SEC.

No real big surprises in today’s USA Today/ESPN coaches poll, as the top two remained the same — Oregon and Auburn — and TCU moved up to No. 3 after a dismantling of Utah.

Boise State, of course, was the victim of TCU’s rise, even after a dominating win over a pretty good Hawaii team. But that shouldn’t surprise you. Last week, Auburn jumped Boise State after a win over a bad Ole Miss team, so the fact that TCU jumped the Broncos after perhaps the most impressive performance of the season shouldn’t come as a shock. In fact, I really don’t have a problem with this jump. TCU has played a better schedule thus far than Boise State, and absolutely dominated it much in the same way Boise has dominated its schedule. This was an exclamation point win for the Horned Frogs, and if voters believed TCU was the better team, there was no better time than now to make that move.

The top two in the BCS standings should remain the same, but I’d expect the gap between Auburn and TCU at 2 and 3 to close. First off, the Horned Frogs moved up in the coaches poll, and I’ll guess they’ll do the same in the Harris Poll. Plus the computers will likely close the gap as Auburn played Chattanooga and TCU played what was the No. 5 team in the BCS standings.

The best news for TCU and Boise State, however, had to be Alabama’s loss. There’s a good chance that the Tide were the only one-loss team capable of jumping over them into the national title game. I don’t know all the tie-breaker rules off-hand, but I believe LSU needs Auburn to lose each of its next two games in order to get into the SEC championship game. So if Alabama beats Auburn in the Iron Bowl, that will open up a spot for either TCU or Boise State.

I doubt a win over a three-loss SEC East champion would be enough for voters to vault Auburn back into the game. And even though it’s happened before, I can’t imagine an 11-1 LSU team that didn’t even play in its conference title game would jump the unbeatens. It wouldn’t be unprecedented — see Nebraska in 2001 — but it would be borderline criminal. Then again, that pretty much fits right in line with the BCS.

The Horned Frogs put a 47-7 drubbing on Utah, breaking the Utes 21-game home winning streak and asserting themselves as a more than legitimate contender for the national title. TCU is for real, but we kind of knew that already. Now those of us that knew it can point at those who continue to deny it and laugh.

The Horned Frogs came into the game touting a powerful defense, and that held true as Utah’s high-powered offense didn’t cross midfield until late in the second half. But TCU’s offense was equally impressive, having its way with a Utah defense that was statistically stout.

A home date with San Diego State is next for the Horned Frogs, which could be a little tricky, although I expect them to win fairly easily. Then they get New Mexico, which might as well forfeit.

There will be arguments at the end of this season, I have little doubt. But if there is only one major conference team with an unbeaten record at the end of the regular season, there’s no way you can keep TCU out of the title game, not after something like this. Sorry, Boise, but I’ve switched bandwagons, and I don’t think I’m alone.