Four spreads of note:

Falcons +3.5 @ Lions, 1:00PM ET Sunday
Apparently the Falcons showed enough last week in their win over the Panthers to make people believe they’re starting to turn things around. Either that or folks are slowly starting to climb off the Lions bandwagon. The spread for this game opened at Detroit –4.5 and within a day it was down to 3.5. Considering Atlanta was viewed as a potential Super Bowl team this season, the Falcons look like a value getting over a field goal. With Julio Jones iffy to return from a hamstring injury, we could see a lot of Michael Turner again this Sunday, especially considering Detroit has had its issues with stopping the run. The Falcons relied heavily on Turner last week against Carolina, as he rushed for 139 yards and two touchdowns. Personally, I think the total is the most attractive play in this game. Forty-seven points seems way to high for two teams that have struggled at times offensively.

Bears -1 @ Bucs, 1:00PM ET Sunday
The Bucs beat the Saints last week at home and they’re now a 1-point underdog against a Chicago team that hasn’t won back-to-back games all season? I guess that’s not too surprising seeing as how ugly the Bucs have looked at times, but it’s not like the Bears have performed any better away from Solider Field (0-2 with two non-covers at New Orleans and Detroit). There’s value here somewhere but it’s hard to figure out which teams will show up this Sunday, especially seeing as how the game is being played in London. Both of these squads have had rather uneven performances from week-to-week this season.

Steelers –3.5 @ Cardinals, 4:05PM ET
The spread in this game seems awfully low to me, even when you account for home field advantage. That’s probably because the Steelers have looked great one week (see Titans), only to come out the next week and barely beat an inferior opponent (see Jaguars). If the Cardinals have any chance of getting back into the NFC West race, they need to win on Sunday. The problem is that Kevin Kolb hasn’t been the quarterback Arizona thought it was getting when it traded for him this offseason. The Cards have been in every game this year except their disastrous Week 5 showing in Minnesota, but Kolb just hasn’t gotten it done in the fourth quarter.

Chiefs +4 @ Raiders, 4:05PM ET, Sunday
It’s funny, the Raiders opened as a 3-point favorite with Kyle Boller under center and as soon as they announced that Carson Palmer would start, the spread climbed to 4 points. So Palmer, who hasn’t taken a snap in a live game since January, is worth a full point in a divisional game? I know he’s familiar with the offense thanks to the time he spent with Hue Jackson in Cincinnati but so much for easing the guy in. That speaks volumes towards Oakland’s confidence in Boller. It’ll be interesting to see how this game plays out come Sunday.

2011 NFL Week 8 Point Spreads & Totals:

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Every Sunday evening throughout the 2011 NFL season I’ll compile quick-hit reactions from the day that was in football. I vow to always overreact, side with sensationalism over rationalism, and draw conclusions based on small sample sizes instead of cold, hard facts. It’s the only way I know how to write…

DIDN’T SEE THAT COMING…

- A week after the Bucs were absolutely embarrassed by the 49ers in San Francisco, they turn around on Sunday and dominate the Saints to even things up in the NFC South. Granted, this was the Saints’ third-straight road game and their head coach had to call plays from the bench and from up in the booth after tearing his MCL and fracturing his tibia in a nasty first-quarter collision with his tight end on the sidelines. But still, you can’t take anything away from the Bucs today. They picked off Drew Brees, forced four turnovers and got a 300-yard performance out of Josh Freeman. They were also without promising runner LeGarrette Blount, but Earnest Graham filled in admirably with a 109-yard effort. Suddenly the NFC South is once again tight, as the Saints and Bucs are both 4-2 and the Falcons are only one game behind at 3-3.

- Who would have thought that the midfield handshake would provide more action than the actual game between the 49ers and Lions today? I’m sure plenty of Lion fans were upset with Jim Harbaugh’s excitement following the Niners’ win in Detroit, which is understandable. Considering Harbaugh didn’t have his finest coaching performance of the year, he probably could have toned down his exuberance while heading out to midfield to shake Jim Schwartz’s hand. But let’s make one thing clear: If you’re going to dish it out, you better be willing to take it. And Schwartz has been dishing it out all year in the form of taunting opposing players and nearly knocking himself out with hay-maker fist pumps. In fact, as my good buddy Drew (a huge Lions fan) pointed out following the game, Schwartz gave Harbaugh guff in the first quarter after the San Fran coach challenged a touchdown. Schwartz seemingly shouted “No the rules!” at the 49er sideline. The Niners won and Harbaugh has every right to be excited. Schwartz should have kept his composure.

- For about the 9,000,000 time in my career, I was wrong about the Bears. They screw me at every turn. When I predict that they’ll win, they don’t. When I say they’ll lose, they completely dominate a divisional opponent 39-10 on national television. I don’t understand them and quite frankly, I don’t want to understand them. I have zero clue when it comes to predicting the success or failures of the Chicago Bears, whom I predicted would beat Peyton Manning in the 2006 Super Bowl. (We all know how that turned out and I think it’s fitting that I mention that game on the same day Rex Grossman throws four interceptions.) Tonight I thought Jared Allen and Adrian Peterson would take over the game in Chicago and instead, Jay Cutler and Devin Hester put on a clinic. They were masterful against a Minnesota team that I thought was a tad better than its record indicated. Thus, I humbly eat crow, as I was once again was wrong about Chicago. Congrats, Bears – you mother…

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I just listened to Bill Simmons’ post-Super Bowl podcast and he said that if the Giants had held on to beat the Eagles in Week 15, the Packers wouldn’t have made the playoffs. Peter King also said that the Packers have the Eagles to thank for their playoff berth.

Green Bay finished 10-6, the last Wild Card team and sixth seed in the NFC, by virtue of winning tiebreakers with the 10-6 Giants and 10-6 Bucs. We all know the Giants story: Up 31-10 over Philly at home with eight minutes left in the game, the Giants gave up 28 points in the last half of the fourth quarter and lost 38-31. The killer was punter Matt Dodge blowing the game and keeping a punt to DeSean Jackson inbounds with 14 seconds left in a 31-all game. Jackson returned it 65 yards for a touchdown. Who knows what would have happened if that game went to overtime, but that’ll stay a mystery.

Maybe I’m missing something here because, clearly, I’m not in the same league as Bill Simmons and Peter King. It appears that Simmons and King are counting the Giants’ win in Week 15, but aren’t considering the Eagles’ loss. If the Eagles lose that game in Week 15, they don’t win the East. The Giants win it at 11-5. Assuming Philly beats Dallas in Week 17 (a reasonable assumption since they didn’t play many of their starters in a 14-13 loss), the Eagles would have finished 10-6 and would have been tied with Tampa Bay and Green Bay for the 6th and final spot in the NFC. This assumes the Eagles would have still lost to the Vikings in Week 16, which is a fair assumption since they played their starters.

The first tiebraker between three teams is a head-to-head sweep, which isn’t applicable because the Bucs didn’t play either the Packers or the Eagles. The second tiebraker is conference record. The Bucs and Packers went 8-4 while the Eagles would have gone 7-5 (with a loss against NYG but a win against DAL), so the Eagles would have been eliminated at this point.

The next tiebraker is record in common games. Both teams were 2-3 in common games. The Packers beat the 49ers and the Lions, and lost to the Lions, Redskins and Falcons. The Bucs beat the 49ers and Redskins, and lost to the Falcons twice and the Lions.

The next tiebraker is strength of victory. I’m not sure how this is calculated or where I can find it, but acccording to CBSSports.com, that was the tiebraker that gave the Packers the No. 6 seed over the Giants and Bucs:

Green Bay is the No. 6 seed over the N.Y. Giants and Tampa Bay based on strength of victory (.475 to the Giants’ .400 and the Buccaneers’ .344).

So the Packers would have gotten the No. 6 seed over the Bucs. They would have played the Giants in the first round of the playoffs. Maybe they would have won or maybe they would have lost, but either way, they would have made the postseason.

So Bill Simmons and Peter King (and anyone else), please stop talking about the Week 15 Giants/Eagles game with regard to the Packers’ Super Bowl win. Thank you.

Jeff Sagarin publishes computer rankings for many different sports, including the NFL. Here is where he has the 12 playoff teams (plus the Bucs and G-Men) ranked this season.

1. New England (33.34)
2. Green Bay (30.64)
3. Pittsburgh (30.17)
4. Baltimore (26.30)
5. Atlanta (25.80)
6. NY Jets (25.19)

8. Philadelphia (23.91)
9. Chicago (23.79)
10. NY Giants (23.30)
11. Indianapolis (23.01)
12. New Orleans (22.89)

15. Tampa Bay (20.24)

18. Kansas City (19.06)

30. Seattle (11.55)

Next to each team name you’ll find Sagarin’s ‘pure points’ in parenthesis. Typically, oddsmakers will use the difference between each team’s number as a starting point when setting the line for the game.

Sagarin’s model says there are only two teams worse than Seattle this season: Arizona and Carolina.

Only Derek Anderson would come in as a replacement, lead his team to a great comeback and stab them in the face with the opportunity for victory presented itself late in the game.

Let me explain.

Midway through the second quarter, Anderson replaced an ineffective Max Hall, who had just thrown a pick-6 to Aqib Talib to give Tampa a 21-14 lead. Anderson then took the Cardinals up the field on his first possession, but a pass attempt to Larry Fitzgerald fell incomplete on a 4th-and-2 from the Tampa Bay 3-yard line and the Bucs wound up kicking a field goal to take a 24-14 halftime lead.

After Tampa built a 31-14 lead midway through the third, Larod Stephens-Howling scored on a 30-yard touchdown run to cut the Bucs’ lead down to 31-21, then Arizona scored on a Gerald Hayes 21-yard fumble return to make the score 31-28. Early in the fourth, Anderson found Fitzgerald on a 5-yard touchdown pass to give the Cardinals a 35-31 lead, although Tampa scored to make it 38-35 with just over five minutes remaining.

After an Anderson interception (not his fault – the receiver had it bounce off his hands and straight into the loving arms of a defender) and a bone-headed decision by Bucs’ head coach Raheem Morris to try a long field goal attempt, Anderson marched the Cards up the field and into the red zone. With just over two minutes remaining, Anderson had the Cardinals knocking on the door of a touchdown or at the very least, a game-tying field goal.

But Derek Anderson, in all of his Derek Anderson glory, threw a pass into quadruple coverage trying to get the ball to Fitzgerald and was promptly picked off by Talib.

Game. Set. Match. Derek Anderson. Bucs win 38-35.

Cardinals need a freaking quarterback.

The NFL has suspended Bucs’ free safety Tanard Jackson indefinitely for violating the league’s substance abuse policy.

From the Tampa Tribune:

Jackson, who was suspended without pay for the first four games of 2009 for violating the same policy, learned of the suspension after Wednesday’s afternoon workout at One Buc Place, Bucs general manager Mark Dominik said.

Specifics of Jackson’s violation were not disclosed, but the suspension began immediately and he cannot apply for re-instatement until July 22, 2011.

“We know that he is suspended for the rest of the year,” Dominik said.

The NFL’s substance abuse policy primarily covers drugs and alcohol, as performance enhancing drugs are covered under a separate policy. The substance abuse policy does not call for a suspension until a player reaches Stage 2 of the league’s intervention program, indicating Jackson failed for the second time to remain in compliance with the terms laid out for him as a Stage 1 offender.

“As much as I would like to comment on it, I’m going through a lot and I can’t talk about it right now,” Jackson told the Tampa Tribune shortly after learning of the suspension. “Maybe at another time.”

Jackson has a load of talent but this is his second suspension in two years and once again the Bucs are left with Sabby Piscitelli at free safety. Piscitelli was almost cut in training camp and if he does wind up back in the starting lineup, expect opposing offenses to consistently attack him in coverage.

This is unfortunate news for the surprising 2-0 Bucs.

If Buccaneers’ cornerback Aqib Talib faces further punishment for attending Tampa Bay’s game against the Browns last Sunday, then the team needs to hold itself partly accountable.

Talib was suspended for violating the league’s personal conduct policy and apparently, the suspension prohibited him from participating in any team activities, which included attending Sunday’s game.

So imagine the NFL’s surprise when it found out that Talib watched the game not from the comforts of his own home, but from his personal suite at Raymond James Stadium. He now faces more punishment, although it’s unclear at this point what that’ll be.

Granted, Talib probably should have known that he couldn’t be at the stadium while he was suspended. But the Bucs are well aware that this kid isn’t the sharpest tool in the shed, so I’m wondering why someone with the team didn’t tell him to quietly sneak out the back door when they saw him sitting there watching the game. There surely had to have been someone affiliated with the team that saw Talib and said, “Hey, what a minute…”

Again, Talib doesn’t escape criticism for what can only be described as another dumb decision among multiple dumb decisions that he’s made since arriving to the NFL. But this one is on the Bucs.

It’s funny — when I originally hopped on the Mike Williams bandwagon a couple of weeks ago, his ADP was in the 13th round and he was still sort of flying under the radar.

A few days later, I took Williams in the 10th round of my Industry Insiders Draft:

10.03: Mike Williams, WR
This was one of those there’s-no-one-else-I-like-so-I’m-going-to-take-this-guy picks. Williams has really played well in the preseason and as a rookie, he is already the Bucs clear-cut WR1. Josh Freeman isn’t bad, and the Bucs are probably going to have to throw more than they’d like as they try to stay in games this season, so this could all add up to a top 25 year for Williams.

When I made that pick, one of the other ‘insiders’ commented, “I think that’s the earliest that I’ve seen Williams go.”

I wasn’t sure whether or not to take that as an insult, but it struck me as funny when, several days later, Williams went in the 7th round in two of my slow email drafts.

What’s the point? Well, it seems like in the world of WRs, the talent drops off a cliff at a certain point in the 7th or 8th round. Once guys like Jeremy Maclin, Mike Wallace, Malcom Floyd, Pierre Garcon, Johnny Knox and Percy Harvin go, things are starting to get tight at WR. Maybe Donald Driver and T.J. Houshmandzadeh are still worthy of 7th or 8th rounders in PPR leagues, but who’s left after that? Lee Evans? Bernard Berrian? Braylon Edwards? Most fantasy owners are going to pass up these retreads in favor of the upside of Williams, which means he could very well go as early as the 7th round in 12-team leagues.

That’s not to say that there aren’t still some interesting wideouts out there. Guys like Laurent Robinson, Jacoby Jones, Santonio Holmes and Louis Murphy are worthwhile picks, but not in the 7th round. Just don’t expect to land Mike Williams in the 10th round or later anymore — that ship has sailed.

Buccaneers’ offensive lineman Jeremy Trueblood obviously didn’t want to be the latest NFL player to make headlines for DUI. That’s why he got his mom to pick him and his friend up after a recent night of drunken debauchery, although unfortunately for him the decision still led to an arrest.

From Tampa Bay Online:

Trueblood was arrested late Tuesday following a traffic stop in Greenfield, a suburb of Indianapolis, after police suspected he and another passenger were drunk and disorderly, Maj. Derek Towell said.

Trueblood, an Indianapolis native, was arrested on suspicion of public intoxication at about 10:30 p.m. Tuesday. Towell said his department received a call shortly after 10 p.m. from a gas station clerk complaining about two men who disrupted the business before leaving in a car driven by a third person.

“The gas station clerk called us and said two guys came into the store and were knocking stuff off the counters and almost knocked over a small lady with a child in her hand,” Towell said.

The driver of the car was Trueblood’s mother, Wanda, Towell said. The third member of the party, Benjamin McKenny, was also arrested on a public intoxication charge, Towell said.

After the car left the gas station, Towell said police responded and pulled the car over because the driver was not wearing a seatbelt. As the officer was talking to Wanda Trueblood and writing a citation, McKenny and Jeremy Trueblood became beligerent and uncooperative and were arrested, Towell said.

If I were 6’8” and 320 pounds, I’d be knocking into things too. It wouldn’t matter if I were three sheets to the wind or stone cold sober either.

While the situation is a little embarrassing, Trueblood was released from jail and no charges were filed against him. Seeing as how he doesn’t have a checkered past, it’s doubtful that the league will suspend him.

He can now go back to having his mom drive him around the state of Indiana without a care in the world. Weeeeeee!