“I think, honestly, this free-agent talk is getting old. It’s getting old and I think it’s probably the last time I answer anymore free-agent questions until the offseason.”

— LeBron James, via Ohio.com

Originally published December 11, 2008.
Updated November 12, 2009.

The phrase “Summer of 2010″ has become part of the NBA lexicon. Teams have been tripping over each other trying to clear cap space for next summer so that they can sign an impact free agent (or two). With that in mind, let’s take a look ahead at the free agent crop of 2010.

Below is a list of the top 10 players that are likely to be free agents next summer. I’m ranking them based mostly on talent, but it’s also important to note each player’s age in July of 2010, as that will affect his value and skill. For example, a 31 year-old Paul Pierce holds much more value than a 33 year-old Paul Pierce. Get the drift?

1. LeBron James, SF (26 years-old)
James is the golden boy of this free agent class and is the player that every franchise would love to land next summer. He will have just turned 26 and whatever team is lucky enough to sign him will – barring injury – enjoy four or five years of the best basketball of his career. The Cavs have gone “all in” this season, signing Shaq, Anthony Parker and Jamario Moon, and re-signing Anderson Varejao. In the process, they gave up whatever cap space they would have enjoyed next summer. If Cleveland’s season ends in disappointment once again, it wouldn’t be surprising if LeBron decides to take his game elsewhere. Three teams — the Knicks, Bulls and Nets — jump out as good fits. LeBron has stated that his top priority is to become a “global icon” and playing in Manhattan would serve that purpose. If the Knicks are able to unload Eddy Curry or Jared Jeffries before the trade deadline, then they’ll have the projected cap space to sign two top players on this list, and that might be enough to convince LeBron to sign on the dotted line. Plus, he’s familiar with Mike D’Antoni (via the duo’s work with Team USA) and the Knicks’ up-tempo system would be a near-perfect fit for LeBron’s skill set. The Nets offer a better supporting cast (led by Devin Harris and Brook Lopez) and the (impending?) move to Brooklyn would boost the franchise’s profile. Chicago has a number of pieces already in place (Derrick Rose, Luol Deng, Joakim Noah and Kirk Hinrich) and is bigger market than Cleveland. But would LeBron want to go to the franchise that Michael Jordan built?
Note: Player option (PO)

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Delonte West misses practice (unexcused) again. All right, one unexcused absence I can understand, but after he was MIA yesterday, wouldn’t the Cavs track him down to find out why he was absent? Of course they would, which is why he is either completely unreachable or the Cavs don’t approve of his reasons for missing practice. This is worrisome, but expect the team to give him a lot of leeway to get his life straightened out.

The New York Daily News thinks there has been another sign that LeBron is headed to the Knicks. His name is William Wesley and apparently he has LeBron’s ear. He was at Knicks camp this week and some conspiracy theorists believe his presence is a sign that LeBron will be playing in New York next season.

The Atlanta Journal-Constitution reports that Joe Johnson will not sign an extension this season. Instead, Johnson is going to become a free agent next summer when a number of teams are going to have the cap space to offer a max deal. After LeBron James, Dwyane Wade, Chris Bosh and (maybe) Amare Stoudemire, Johnson is the next biggest prize in the free agent class of 2010. He’s one of those players that isn’t quite worth a max deal but he’s going to get one anyway. (Think Michael Redd circa 2005.)

Byron Scott told the Times-Picayune that the Hornets’ starting small forward job is Julian Wright’s to lose. This is about a year too late. Wright was quite productive (PER: 15.48) in his rookie season, but the Hornets went with James Posey instead, thinking that he’d be the missing piece to the championship puzzle. Wright is one of those young, talented players that is going to see a big increase in minutes, so fantasy basketball owners should take note.

Dwyane Wade is in Chicago right now for the 3rd annual “Wade’s World” charity weekend. The festivities include a benefit dinner, a kick-off party, school visits, a bowling party, a youth summit and a school supply giveaway. But the event that D.Wade really wanted to promote was the Gatorade “Chicago Has Talent” show on Saturday night at the Harris Theater at Millenium Park. (For tickets or information call 312-334-7777 or visit www.harristheaterchicago.org. All proceeds go towards the Wade’s World Foundation.) Go to the foundation’s website for more information about the weekend’s festivities and events.

D.Wade took a few minutes out of his busy schedule to chat with The Scores Report about the weekend, what it was like to win an Olympic gold medal and where he might sign next summer.

TSR: D. Wade. How are you doing?

DW: I’m good, boss. I’m good.

TSR: It’s a pleasure to talk to one of the best – if not the best – basketball players on the planet.

DW: Aw, well, I appreciate that.

TSR: I saw your itinerary for this “Wade’s World” Weekend and it looks like you are about to present a check to the William Leonard Public Library. What does it mean for you to be able to give back to your hometown?

DW: It means a lot. Whether it’s a big contribution or a small contribution to be able to give back to not only my hometown and my community, but to others as well. I’ve been very blessed and I think it’s my job to continue to help others that are in dire need, like the William Leonard Public Library in Robbins.

TSR: There’s a jam-packed weekend of activities. One thing I wanted to ask you about was the Gatorade “Chicago Has Talent” show on Saturday. Can you tell me a little bit about that?

DW: Yeah, you look at the whole weekend and we’ve got many different events going on. Some of them you’re going to have fun and some of them are fundraisers, but I think the biggest thing is the one that Gatorade really got behind was the “Chicago Has Talent” because it’s showcasing our kids and giving them an opportunity in life. I think we’re going to have between 10-15 different groups of kids perform in front of a crowd of around 1,000 people, and get a chance to showcase their talent. And the top 3 will get an opportunity to do some special things, but the winner is going to go on and do some great things and get an opportunity to be seen. I think our job is to give them that chance and that hope that they can do it. So I’m looking forward to it. I can’t wait until that Saturday event. That’s probably the biggest event to me of the week of all the things we’re doing.

TSR: That’s at the Harris Theater at 7:00 PM at Millenium Park and tickets (which start at $15) are available.

DW: Yeah, that’s at the Harris Theater and it’s just after we get done with a youth summit where we have a panel full of celebrities and powerful, important people in the community, and they get to talk to kids for a couple of hours about violence and sex, and about so many different topics, and that’s actually right before the show.

TSR: And that’s at the UIC Forum at 725 W. Roosevelt Road.

DW: Yeah.

TSR: So do you mind if I ask you a couple of basketball-related questions?

DW: Sure.

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That’s the biggest question hovering over the NBA this season, at least from a free agency standpoint. ESPN tackled this issue by surveying a group of “52 NBA noggins” to see what the general consensus is.

The good news for Cleveland fans is that 73% responded that he’s likely to stay put, in no small part to how the economy has affected the NBA salary cap. The bottom line is that, with reduced cap space, other teams are going to have a tough time signing two superstars, so they become less desirable destinations for LeBron.

New York still lurks as the biggest threat to pry LeBron away from Cleveland, and here’s why…

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Per the NY Times…

“I want to be in Miami, and I hope everything works out that way,” Wade said Thursday. “I want to be one of those players that stays with one franchise for his entire career.”

“Next year will be a big year for myself and for the team, but the plan has always been to stay with the Heat, and that’s still the plan,” he said. “I think everything will work out.”

The NY Post went a step further, asking Wade if the Knicks or Nets had a chance of signing him.

And while admitting the Heat were still the favorites, for his services, he pretty much dashed any hope of the Nets or Knicks getting him. After saying firmly “The Heat” as the frontrunner, he was asked point blank if the Nets or Knicks had a chance.

“Not in my mind. I’m not thinking about the Knicks or the Nets. Only when we play them,” Wade said.

In a piece about which teams will project to have a lot of cap space next summer, I wrote this about the Heat…

Of these five teams, the Heat look to be in the best overall shape. Their projected payroll already includes Dwyane Wade, so they have enough to woo another superstar (LeBron, Bosh, Amare, Boozer?) to Miami. They also have a few good young players (Michael Beasley, Daequan Cook and Mario Chalmers) under contract, and the city boasts a great climate and nightlife. But the real draw is playing with Wade, who has already proven that he can win a championship if he has a little help.

There might be a little chicken and the egg thing going on here. In order for the Heat to attract a top free agent like Chris Bosh or Amare Stoudemire, they need to have a commitment from Dwyane Wade that he’ll re-sign. (Last summer, Baron Davis learned this the hard way when Elton Brand bolted for Philly.) But in order to get Wade to re-sign, he needs to know that there’s help on the way.

Right now, the Nets (with a nice core of Devin Harris and Brook Lopez) and the Knicks (great market) look to be the two biggest threats to stealing Wade away. In his own words, he doesn’t think there’s much of a chance of that happening.

But a lot can happen in a year.

ESPN’s Chad Ford lists nine teams that will have significant cap space next summer. [Insider subscription required.]

1. Nets ($25-$27 million)
2. Knicks ($24 million, assuming they don’t sign anyone for longer than a year)
3. Heat ($20-$22 million)
4. Timberwolves ($16-$18 million)
5. Bulls ($13-$15 million minus whatever they give Tyrus Thomas)
6. Thunder ($14-$15 million)
7. Rockets ($12-$14 million minus whatever they give to Carl Landry and Chuck Hayes)
8. Clippers ($10-$11 million)
9. Kings ($9-$10 million)

This assumes a cap of $53.6 million, which is an optimistic view. The cap could drop below $50 million.

It takes about $14 million of space to sign a max-contract player, so even under these optimistic circumstances, there really are only five teams — the Nets, Knicks, Heat, T-Wolves and Thunder — that will have that kind of space. (The Bulls are likely to keep Thomas and the Rockets are likely to retain Landry and Hayes, though they could make another move here or there to put them in position to add a superstar.)

Of these five teams, the Heat look to be in the best overall shape. Their projected payroll already includes Dwyane Wade, so they have enough to woo another superstar (LeBron, Bosh, Amare, Boozer?) to Miami. They also have a few good young players (Michael Beasley, Daequan Cook and Mario Chalmers) under contract, and the city boasts a great climate and nightlife. But the real draw is playing with Wade, who has already proven that he can win a championship if he has a little help.

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It was kind of a pipe dream anyway, but LeBron isn’t going to sign the extension that the Cavs have offered, according to the Cleveland Plain Dealer.

“I signed a contract in 2006 with an option,” he said. “It would make no sense for me to sign that contract if I didn’t keep my options open. I’ll let you fill in the blanks.”

James is playing this one the right way. If he re-ups now, then he loses the leverage necessary to keep GM Danny Ferry’s feet to the fire in terms of bringing in some long-term help. Shaquille O’Neal is fine for a year or two, but he’s most definitely a short-term fix.

The bad news is that with the long-term commitment the team made to Anderson Varejao, the Cavs aren’t projected to have any cap space next summer if they’re lucky enough to re-sign LeBron. It looks like Ferry sees the writing on the wall — with the salary cap likely dropping to $50-$51 million next season, he wasn’t going to have enough money to sign LeBron and another superstar, so he re-signed Varejao to make this year’s Cavs team as good as possible in the hopes that a Finals appearance or a championship would be enough to keep LeBron in Cleveland.

BREW HOOP has a nice roundup of the Ramon Sessions situation. The Knicks haven’t yet signed him to a deal, but the two sides are still negotiating.

Rumor has it that the Bucks would match up to $3 million per season. The Knicks’ payroll is currently projected to be around $27.4 million heading into next summer, and if the salary cap drops to $50 million, that leaves $22.6 million to sign LeBron (or some other max player) and David Lee and/or Sessions. (This assumes that GM Donnie Walsh can’t move Eddy Curry or Jared Jeffries.) Whatever deal the Knicks offer Sessions will cut into that cap space in 2010 since the minimum contract length is two years for a restricted free agent. It appears that the Knicks are looking at the worst case scenario (not being able to move Curry or Jeffries) and have to choose between Sessions and Lee.

As for the Bucks, I’ve made my feelings clear — they need to hold onto Sessions.

Restricted free agent David Lee is frustrated that he hasn’t been able to come to terms on a new contract with the Knicks.

“At the start of this process I was really excited to be in New York, I thought it wouldn’t be too difficult to work something out, but now we’re forced to start looking at different options with sign-and trades and stuff like that,” Lee told ESPN.com. “I’m sure it’s going to be something we’re not expecting, it’s going to be something that’s very complicated. But my gut would be that it’s going to be difficult at this point to get a long-term deal done with New York, that’s my gut.”

Lee is seeking a five- or six-year contract in the range of $50-60 million, with New York willing to spend something more in the area of $8 million per season.

“He has an agenda with his agent, and rightly so, and [Knicks president] Donnie [Walsh] has an agenda that I think everybody knows, and right now they’re not coinciding — and until somebody kind of changes that format, it’s going to be a little bit apart,” [head coach Mike] D’Antoni said. “Hopefully we can get it changed. We’re exploring everything, and we’re trying to stick to our guns a little bit, and that’s about it. We love David, we’d love to have him back, but I don’t think we can do it at any cost. That’s what’s being defined right now: What’s that cost? And so far they haven’t been able to agree on it.”

“Going forward I thought I could still be a big piece of the puzzle — and it’s not as though I’m looking at a max contract, or talking about either me OR LeBron. I thought it was something where we could get something done and they’d still have more than enough left over for what they wanted in the future, but apparently there’s some disagreement on that — just on how the Knicks want to move forward. And I think at this point they’re not completely sure what they’re going to do and how they want to proceed,” Lee said.

“I’m not going to go with angry or disrespected, that’s not the way we feel,” Lee said. “I understand the Knicks have a lot of different factors they’re considering. At this point they’re looking toward the future and trying to figure out exactly what they want to do, and possibly even confused about what they want to do. I don’t know that they’re 100 percent sure right now, just from what Donnie is saying, that they 100 percent know what direction they want to go in. You’ve seen that with the different guys [Jason Kidd and Grant Hill] they’ve been trying to get, and they haven’t gotten them.”

In his comments, Lee paints the Knicks as a team that doesn’t know what it wants to do. I don’t think this is a case. The Knicks want Lee back, but not at $10 million per season. Just because the team won’t meet his asking price, it doesn’t mean that they don’t know what direction they’re going.

Here is what I wrote about Lee when there were reports that he was looking for $12 million per season.

The other thing to consider when trying to estimate Lee’s overall value is the pace at which the Knicks play, and how it affects his stats. The Knicks use 99.0 possessions per game, but the league average is only 94.1, so if Lee were playing for a team playing at an average pace, his stats would drop to 15.2 ppg and 11.1 rpg. Those are still impressive numbers, but I wonder if he’d be quite as productive if he weren’t playing in D’Antoni’s wide open system. It’s not just the Knicks’ pace, it’s the opportunities that the team’s pace creates in transition. I’d expect him to be a 14/10 guy for an average team, and that’s hardly worth $12 million per season.

Lee isn’t a guy that the Knicks can dump the ball to in the post and expect him to score. He gets his points in other ways, a la Shawn Marion, though he doesn’t have Marion’s defensive prowess or three point range.

The Knicks are projected to have a payroll of just under $24 million heading into the summer of 2010. If they sign Lee to a deal worth $10 million a season, and the cap comes in at around $50 million as some forecasts have said, that only leaves about $16 million to sign a big-name free agent next summer. If they can sign Lee for $8 million a year, they’ll have a little extra flexibility and it could mean all the difference in the world.