ESPN recently ran a piece where it asked TrueHoop bloggers whether or not Orlando, New Jersey, New Orleans and Phoenix should trade their star players this offseason. I thought I’d chime in with my own thoughts:

Dwight Howard

This has to be a gut call from GM Otis Smith — he knows Howard better than any member of the media and if he believes his superstar wants to stay, then he should do everything in his power to make it happen. Only I don’t know how he gets the Magic back in the fold as a true contender given the available pieces he has to move. There has been one personnel mistake after another since Orlando’s appearance in the 2009 Finals. Just like Chris Bosh and LeBron James, the writing is on the wall, isn’t it? Dwight Howard is leaving, and if Smith can acquire someone with the upside of Andrew Bynum in the process, that might be the Magic’s best bet to jump start the rebuilding process.

Deron Williams

Of course the Nets should hold onto Williams. He’s a franchise point guard and with Brook Lopez in tow and a load of cap space, the soon-to-be Brooklyn Whatevers are poised to make a big jump in the standings. Mikhail Prokhorov’s management team has done a nice job thus far, though I have no idea why they gave Travis Outlaw $7 million a year. Without that albatross of a contract, the Nets would be even better position to make a splash in free agency and surround Williams with the wings that he needs to be successful.

Chris Paul

This is a unique situation, what with the NBA owning the Hornets and all. One of ESPN’s bloggers said the “fair” thing to do is let CP3 walk, but that’s not the best move for the franchise. I think they should offer Paul for Russell Westbrook straight up. That may not be the first step on the road to a championship, but it’s probably the best deal the Hornets will get. Plus, no one will look at Westbrook funny when he takes 30 shots and turns the ball over six times per game. (Or how about Paul for Eric Gordon? New Orleans needs a good young star to build around.) Bottom line? I don’t think there’s much of a chance of Paul re-upping after the season, so New Orleans should get as much in return as possible while they still can.

Steve Nash

Forget all this talk about Nash retiring a Sun. That can’t be what’s most important to him. He must want to taste the Conference Finals again, so Phoenix should trade him to a playoff team that can offer draft picks and/or a good young player in return. What’s the point in letting Nash’s career die a slow death on a team that’s going nowhere? Stop being selfish, Phoenix Suns. Free Steve Nash.

My post from a few days ago was relatively well-received at reddit, and one of the readers there said that he’d like to see the same graph for some of the all-time great point guards.

So with a little help from Basketball-Reference.com, I compiled a list of (all?) the Hall of Fame point guards: Oscar Robertson, Lenny Wilkens, Bob Cousy, Jerry West, John Stockton, Isiah Thomas, Magic Johnson, Dennis Johnson, Tiny Archibald, Calvin Murphy, Pete Maravich and Walt Frazier. Unfortunately, the NBA didn’t start keeping track of turnovers until the 1977-78 season, so there’s no assist-to-turnover data for the first four (Robertson, Wilkens, Cousy, West) and the data for Archibald, Murphy, Maravich and Frazier is incomplete, so I could only use their post-1977 numbers.

I also compiled a list of the top non-HOF point guards who are both retired and still active: Jason Kidd, Mark Jackson, Steve Nash, Gary Payton, Rod Strickland, Maurice Cheeks, Terry Porter, Tim Hardaway, Andre Miller, Muggsy Bogues, Kevin Johnson, Derek Harper, Stephon Marbury (yes, Stephon Marbury), John Lucas, Norm Nixon, Mookie Blaylock, Sam Cassell, Avery Johnson, Baron Davis, Nick Van Exel, Allen Iverson, Chauncey Billups and Mike Bibby. All of these players have at least 5,400 career assists, which seemed to be the cutoff for players I was interested in using for this study.

Lastly, I added seven of the top current point guards who have yet to break the 5,400-assist barrier: Tony Parker, Stephen Curry, Russell Westbrook, Rajon Rondo, Derrick Rose, Deron Williams and of course, Chris Paul.

I first tackled this subject two years ago, and settled on the shot-to-assist ratio to determine whether a player is “pass-first” or “shoot-first.” The higher the number, the more of a “shoot-first” player he is. To determine whether or not a player is “turnover-prone,” I calculated each player’s assist-to-turnover ratio. The higher the number, the better the player is at taking care of the ball, relative to what he’s asked to do as a playmaker for his team. The graph takes a gentle downward slope because assists are part of both calculations. (Note: While I do like FGA/A as the criteria for shoot-first/pass-first, I am not completely sold on A/TO as the criteria for turnover-prone. Perhaps (A+FGA)/TO would show shoot-first guards in a better light? Maybe I’ll try that next year.)

Here’s how the graph turned out. Click on it to see a bigger version.

Pass-first/shoot-first goes left to right, while takes care of the ball/turnover-prone sits on the vertical axis.

A few random thoughts:

– This is not typically an indictment of a player’s game. Most offenses call for a playmaking point guard, while others do not. For example, Sam Cassell was definitely a scoring point guard, but he was a great fit in the Houston offense alongside Hakeem Olajuwon, who was very adept at drawing the double-team and kicking the ball out to the open shooter. Cassell’s role on that team was to hit open shots, not run the pick-and-roll over and over in an attempt to set up other shooters (like John Stockton).

– Murphy, Frazier, Iverson and Maravich were so far to the right on the shoot-first scale that if had I shown their plot points, the rest of the graph would have been unreadable. Their shot-to-assist ratios ranged from 3.40 (Frazier) to 4.75 (Murphy). In the modern era, Iverson is probably the quintessential shoot-first point guard, even though he did average 6.2 assists per game.

– Speaking of quintessential, it’s no surprise that John Stockton and Chris Paul are in the top-left quadrant, but Muggsy Bogues’ presence is a little surprising. He couldn’t score very well (career 7.7 ppg), but his assist-to-turnover ratio (4.69) was easily the best of the players in the study.

– Other players in the top-left quadrant like Jason Kidd, Steve Nash, Mark Jackson, Maurice Cheeks, Rajohn Rondo and Avery Johnson are your traditional pass-first point guards. Magic Johnson also qualifies, but he was special because he could drop 35 points on you if necessary.

– Just because a player is not a traditional pass-first point guard does not mean that he can’t have great success. Isiah Thomas, Sam Cassell, Tony Parker and Dennis Johnson all have multiple NBA titles on their resumes, while Chauncey Billups has one of his own. This is good news for Rose, Westbrook and Curry, who are not traditional pass-first point guards.

We hear it all the time. NBA analysts call one point guard “pass-first” and another “shoot-first.” Or they say one guy is “turnover-prone” while another “takes care of the ball.” But really, what makes a player a “pass-first” point guard? How carefree must he be with the ball to be considered “turnover-prone”?

I first tackled this subject two years ago, and settled on the shot-to-assist ratio to determine whether a player is “pass-first” or “shoot-first.” The higher the number, the more of a “shoot-first” player he is. To determine whether or not a player is “turnover-prone,” I calculated each player’s assist-to-turnover ratio. The higher the number, the better the player is at taking care of the ball.

I narrowed the list of players to 33, one for each team plus a few extra for teams like Cleveland, Sacramento and Denver, who have a couple of players manning the position. I also added eight prospects (indicated in green) just to see where a few of the younger guys land. Here’s the graph — it’s small, but if you click it, you’ll get to a bigger version:

So the pass-first/shoot-first aspect goes left to right, and the turnover-prone players will be towards the bottom, while the guys that take really good care of the ball will be up top. Players indicated with a blue diamond are in the Top 10 in this group in Efficiency Per Minute. I set the axis for each category at the average of the 33 players in question, so 1.97 for FGA-to-assist and 2.70 assist-to-turnover.

Two years ago when I conducted this study, seven of the top 10 EPM performers were in the top left quadrant (pass-first, takes care of the ball). This year, only five of the top 11 (I included both Rondo and Calderon, since they tied for #11) are in that quadrant. This is due to the emergence of three shoot-first, (fairly) turnover-prone guards who are emerging as stars: Derrick Rose, Russell Westbrook and Stephen Curry.

A few takeaways:

Ty Lawson looks like a star. He is #13 in this group in EPM, so if he can continue to post big numbers in bigger minutes he’s poised to join the Top 10 sometime soon.

Kyle Lowry isn’t too far behind him. It’s not clear if Houston has decided that Lowry is their point guard of the future, but he is #16 in EPM and is well above average in assist-to-turnover ratio.

Brandon Jennings can still become a Top 10 point guard. Two years ago, I would have said that Jennings would have to drastically change his game to join the elite group of point guards, but with the way Rose, Westbrook and Curry have emerged, he can continue to be himself. One thing I’ve noticed with his game is that he has a tough time finishing around the hoop when he gets bumped, which is something that Westbrook and Rose excel at. Jennings needs to master the floater — that way, he can use his quickness to get into the lane pretty much any time he wants, and then get his shot off without taking a big hit.

Roddy Beaubois is an interesting prospect, but it’s doubtful he’s going to be a quality starter in this league… unless he changes his game to become more of a distributor. He doesn’t need to turn into Jason Kidd, but right now he’s an outlier so he needs to take better care of the ball and create a few more opportunities for teammates. You may notice that Tyreke Evans is very close to Beaubois, but he really needs to play shooting guard.

If John Wall can take care of the ball, he’ll be right there with Deron Williams. For a rookie, Wall’s numbers look great. Sure, he’s a little turnover prone, but no worse that Westbrook, Billups, Collison or Curry. He’s a playmaker, so once he cuts back on the turnovers, his assist-to-turnover ratio really has a chance to skyrocket. I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s up in the area of Maynor and Lowry with a blue diamond next to his name in a couple of seasons.

The loss puts the Suns at 35-34, three games behind Memphis for the #8 seed in the West, but they’re just two games behind the Grizzlies in the loss column. Unfortunately, the Suns don’t face the Grizzlies down the stretch, so it will be tough to catch them. It looks like Steve Nash and Co. will miss the playoffs this year.

GMs around the league were worried that there wouldn’t be much action leading up to Thursday’s trade deadline, but once the Carmelo Anthony trade went down, there has been a flurry of activity highlighted by the Nets’ acquisition of Deron Williams.

Here are five more trades that should happen, but probably won’t. They generally include one older player on a bad team that isn’t going anywhere.

Click on each trade’s headline to see it in the ESPN Trade Machine.

1. Steve Nash to Atlanta for Jamal Crawford and two first round picks
Free Steve Nash! The Hawks aren’t the ideal destination for Nash, but the Hawks really need a floor leader and the team has the defensive frontcourt (Josh Smith, Al Horford) to make up for Nash’s weakness on that end of the court. Smith and Horford would work well in Nash’s patented screen-and-roll and he would take the pressure off of Joe Johnson to create as the shot clock is winding down. The Suns aren’t going to get much out of this deal other than cap relief (Crawford’s deal is expiring) and a couple of first round picks, but Nash is 37 years old and deserves to play in the postseason. The Suns aren’t going anywhere anyway.

2. Rip Hamilton to Chicago for Kyle Korver and Ronnie Brewer
Rip can still play. He’s averaging 13.3 points per game and his shooting 40%+ from 3PT even though his minutes are sporadic. He works hard on defense and has kept himself in great shape throughout his career, so he should be able to contribute for the remainder of his contract. His spot up jumper would be a nice fit alongside Derrick Rose in the Chicago backcourt. The Pistons would be rid of the headache of keeping Rip on the roster without playing him and would get a couple of youngish wings in Korver and Brewer that could actually contribute.

3. Mo Williams to Portland for Andre Miller and Rudy Fernandez
The Blazers are currently sitting in the #5 spot in the West and could use a dynamic point guard who can create and shoot it while Brandon Roy comes back from his knee injury. Williams is good enough to run the pick-and-roll with LaMarcus Aldridge, but he’s also a spot shooter, so he’d be a solid fit if/when Roy does come back and dominate the ball. For Williams, the Cavs would get Fernandez who still has some upside as a 25-year-old swingman who gave Team USA fits in the 2008 Olympics. He’s a career 38% three-point shooter and would do well with more minutes in Cleveland. The Blazers could throw in their first round pick if a sweetener was needed.

4. Gerald Wallace to Dallas for Roddy Beaubois and Caron Butler
The Mavs could use a swingman to replace Caron Butler and Wallace fits the mold. He’s not a great shooter, but he would complement Dirk Nowitzki with his toughness, defense and rebounding. Beaubois is a good young prospect, but the Mavs might smell blood as the Western Conference has been depleted by trades while the Lakers seem more vulnerable than ever. The Bobcats would save about $18 million over the next two years and get a star on the rise in Beaubois. (He had an 18.59 PER in his rookie season.)

5. Steven Jackson to New Orleans for Marcus Thornton, Marcus Banks and Willie Green
The Bobcats continue remaking their backcourt with the acquisition of a good young scorer in Thornton, while also saving $19 million (minus whatever they eventually pay Thornton) over the next two seasons. In return, the Hornets get Jackson, a grizzled vet who can still score in bunches and take the pressure off Chris Paul and David West. Chemistry is always an issue, but Jackson should do fine with an established alpha dog like Paul who is going to be the one setting him up for open shot after open shot.

ESPN’s Chad Ford lists the 10 impact players most likely to be moved before the Feb. 24 NBA trade deadline and believe it or not, #10 on his list is Steve Nash.

The Suns have said all along that Nash is still the core of the franchise, but at 22-24, the Suns are a long way from contending for a championship. Heck, they may not even make the playoffs this season. The soon-to-be 37-year-old is still playing at a high level, so he could help a team in need of a good point guard.

So here are a few reasonable offers that might get the Suns to bite.

1. Los Angeles Lakers
The chances that the Suns would trade Nash to the Lakers are pretty slim. No one in the West really wants to help Kobe try to three-peat, but the Lakers aren’t playing very well and they have a big piece that the Suns might be interested in.

There’s a saying — don’t trade big for small — but the Lakers aren’t getting great play out of their point guard position and Nash’s shooting would be a great fit next to Kobe in the Laker backcourt. However, Nash’s propensity to dribble around until he finds the open man would take the ball out of Kobe’s hands, and that may not go over very well (or fit within the Lakers’ triangle offense). The trade would leave the Lakers very thin on the front line, and with the way that the Celtics are playing, it’s doubtful that they’re going to want to part ways with Bynum. But they’re not playing very good baskeball right now and the roster could use a shakeup. Perhaps Robin Lopez could be included to maintain the Lakers’ frontcourt depth.

For the Suns, Bynum could be a franchise cornerstone if he can just stay healthy. I have my doubts about his knees, but if the Phoenix doctors take a look at him and think that the worst is behind him, he may be worth the risk.

2. New York Knicks
The Knicks have cooled off considerably since their hot start and are now hovering just three games above .500. Raymond Felton (17 points, 9 assists) hasn’t been the problem, but Nash would be an upgrade at the point for Mike D’Antoni. Here’s a deal that would probably work for both teams:

The Suns would get cap relief in the form of Eddy Curry’s expiring contract, a forward who can really shoot it in Gallinari, and a wildcard big man (Randolph) who many believe has star potential given the right coach and the right system. The Knicks would get a proven floor leader (Nash) as well as a wing in Hill to help offset the loss of Gallinari.

3. Atlanta Hawks
Other than the Knicks and the Heat (who don’t have the pieces to convince the Suns to part ways with Nash), the only other semi-contender in the East that needs a point guard is Atlanta. The tough part about the Hawks trading for Nash is that they’re going to have to give up one of their big three (Joe Johnson, Josh Smith and Al Horford) to get him.

Johnson’s contract makes it tough to trade him and Horford probably has the better (or more stable) future than Smith, so Smith is the odd man out. He’s a very talented player and could be a franchise cornerstone for the Suns if the light ever goes on (and stays on). The trade would leave the Hawks a little thin at power forward, but they could go with Marvin Williams there and play a small-ball lineup of Nash, Jamal Crawford, Johnson, Williams and Horford.

The market for Nash is small. He would need to go to a playoff team in need of a point guard, but most playoff teams are already set at that spot. Boston, Chicago, San Antonio, Dallas, Oklahoma City, New Orleans and Utah don’t need Nash, while Miami and Orlando just don’t have the pieces to entice the Suns into a trade.

That leaves the Lakers, Knicks, Hawks and perhaps the Blazers as real players in a potential trade for the two-time MVP.

On the heels of their Game 6 loss to the Lakers, the Phoenix Suns once again start an offseason after coming up short in the postseason.

In reality, despite the sour finish, making the Western Conference Finals represents a resounding success for the Suns, who weren’t expected to be a legitimate title contender heading into the season. But after the trade deadline, Amare Stoudemire played like an All-NBAer (27-10 after the All-Star break), and the Suns’ bench — specifically Goran Dragic, Jared Dudley and Channing Frye — provided a much-needed punch when the starters weren’t getting it done.

This team already has great chemistry and is playing championship-caliber ball, why mess with it? Well, the Suns have a huge decision this offseason — whether or not to offer Stoudemire a max contract.

Is he worth a max deal? He doesn’t rebound as well as he should — and grabbed just nine rebounds in the first two games of the WCF — and he’s not known as a very good defender. Shouldn’t a max player excel at scoring, rebounding and defense?

Stoudemire is open to staying in Phoenix, but it seems like he wants a max deal. Without it, he’ll probably go elsewhere, providing they’ll offer him the non-Bird max.

If he leaves, the Suns will have about $13 million of cap space assuming Grant Hill opts in and Channing Frye opts out (which they are rumored to do). What that means is that if Stoudemire bolts, the Suns will be a player in this summer’s free agency frenzy. They may not have a shot at LeBron James or Chris Bosh, but they could potentially afford someone like Carlos Boozer or David Lee, who would both fit in well with the Suns’ up-tempo system. However, neither player is known for his defense, so the Suns will probably continue to struggle on that end of the court. Also, such a move would only serve to further highlight the length issues that the Suns have when they face the Lakers.

Steve Nash is already 36 and his game has to fall off at some point. However, he’s in tremendous shape and the emergence of Goran Dragic should continue to offset the decline in Nash’s game. The Suns have a nice core, so if they re-sign Stoudemire or end up with someone like Boozer or Lee to pay power forward, they should stay near the top of the Western Conference. It doesn’t appear that they’re built to get by the Lakers, but if there’s a playoff-threatening injury to Kobe Bryant or Pau Gasol, the Suns would be in position to pick up the ball and run to the Finals. That’s better than blowing the whole thing up and starting over, right?

Photo from fOTOGLIF