2009 NFL Week 7 Picks & Predictions

Instead of limiting myself to only four games like I have the previous weeks, I’ve decided to channel my inner Peter King and make predictions (with smaller write ups) on every contest on the NFL schedule this week.

49ers at Texans, 1:00PM ET
It had to have been a long two weeks for San Francisco’s players after the Falcons drubbed the Niners 45-10 in Week 5. Mike Singletary will have his team more focused and I think we’ll see a great defensive effort from San Fran this Sunday to slow down a potent Houston offensive attack.
Odds: Texans –3.
Prediction: 49ers 20, Texans 17.

Packers at Browns, 1:00PM ET
This will be a closer game than most think. The Packers could be looking ahead to a home date with the Vikings next Sunday, although in the end Cleveland’s offense is putrid and while Green Bay has been inconsistent defensively this year, I think they’ll do enough to get the Pack a victory.
Odds: Packers –9.
Prediction: Packers 24, Browns 16.

Chargers at Chiefs, 1:00PM ET
Ron Rivera has no clue on how to get San Diego’s defense back on track, but the young, inexperienced Kansas City secondary could have issues slowing down Philip Rivers and the Bolts’ passing game. Still, I think Matt Cassel and company pull off a surprise upset at home against a San Diego team coming off a short week.
Odds: Chargers –5
Prediction: Chiefs 20, Chargers 18.

Colts at Rams, 1:00PM ET
The Rams have given a nice effort the past two weeks, but this is a horrible matchup for them – even at home. Peyton Manning and company is well rested and the Indy defense will harass Marc Bulger all game.
Odds: Colts –14
Prediction: Colts 34, Rams 14.

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Big Ben shreds the Browns

The Pittsburgh Steelers are far from perfect, in fact, they might be the best imperfect team in the NFL, if that makes any sense. But as long as they have Ben Roethlisberger under center, they’re going to have a chance to win most on most Sundays.

The Steelers beat the Browns 27-14 on Sunday in a sloppy game that had little to no flow to it. Both teams combined for eight turnovers and Cleveland didn’t even total 200 yards of offense. Yet through all the muck, Big Ben was 23-of-35 for 417 yards and two touchdowns while helping Pittsburgh gain 543 yards of total offense.

Rothlisberger absolutely shredded the Browns’ secondary, connecting with Hines Ward, Santonio Holmes, Heath Miller and Mike Wallace with regularity on plays that gained 25-yards or more. He also rushed six times for 11 yards and once again kept plays alive with his mobility in the pocket. I realize shredding a Browns secondary that is susceptible to giving up big plays isn’t a monumental event for a quarterback, but it’s hard not to appreciate how good Big Ben looked on Sunday.

Tom Brady and Petyon Manning are known for putting their teams on their shoulders and leading them to victory. He’s usually not brought up in the same discussion, but Roethlisberger is definitely on Brady and Manning’s level when it comes to that ability. Granted, he’s often aided by how good Pittsburgh’s defense is, but there’s no denying that he’s an exceptional quarterback. And more times than not, he covers up how flawed the Steelers truly are.

Polamalu back, but Steelers lose Smith for season

Head coach Mike Tomlin feels confident that Troy Polamalu will return to action this Sunday for the first time since suffering a knee injury in Week 1.

That’s the good news. The bad news is that defensive end Aaron Smith has been placed on injured reserve due to a shoulder injury and his season is now over. Look for Travis Kirschke to take over Smith’s defensive end spot, although first round pick Ziggy Hood will get snaps there as well.

This is the type of injury that tests a team’s ability to find depth in the offseason and given that Pittsburgh always drafts well, they should be fine. But Smith’s injury is a major blow to the Steelers’ vaunted run defense, one that has stifled opponents over the years. Kirschke and Hood (and maybe even Nick Eason) need to step up and fill the void or the Smith’s end position will become a weakness opponents can take advantage of.

That said, getting Polamalu back is massive. The Steelers are great without Polamalu, but with him they are exceptional because he freelances so well. Quarterbacks have to know where he is at all times and even then, he still finds a way to make plays.

After sitting out the past four weeks, Polamalu should be hyped up to play on Sunday against Cleveland.

Culpepper gives Steelers issues in Lions’ loss

Brady

Okay, who played quarterback for the Detroit Lions on Sunday? Because it sure as hell wasn’t Daunte Culpepper.

In the Steelers’ 28-20 win over the Lions on Sunday, somebody resembling Culpepper (wearing Culpepper’s jersey) totaled 282 yards and one touchdown on 23-of-37 passing. Imposter Culpepper also rushed for 44 yards in the loss and actually kept the Lions in contention despite not having receiver Calvin Johnson, who suffered an injury and left the game.

Despite the surprising performance, Culpepper’s decision-making was as brutal as ever, which was evident in his second half interception. He was also sacked seven times and apparently bathed his hands in butter before the game because he fumbled three times. Still, he performed admirably against a tough Pittsburgh defense.

Looking at the stats, it’s amazing that the Steelers didn’t win this game by four touchdowns. Ben Roethlisberger threw for 277 yards and three touchdowns, while Rashard Mendenhall rushed for 5.1 YPC (despite only gaining 77 rushing yards). But Pittsburgh’s defense allowed Culpepper to keep the chains moving and couldn’t get off the field as Detroit converted 11 of its 18 third down attempts.

I wouldn’t say that the Steelers regressed after their convincing 38-28 win last Sunday night over the Chargers, but Mike Tomlin has to be somewhat disappointed that his team only compiled 82 yards on the ground against a suspect Detroit run defense. (Not to mention his defense allowed Daunte freaking Culpepper to keep this game close in the end.)

Steelers nearly blow four-touchdown lead against Chargers

Midway through the third quarter of the Steelers-Chargers game on Sunday night, I started pounding away at a post dedicated to how Pittsburgh silenced its critics with a dominating victory over San Diego.

Seriously, I was finished outside of adding the final score and some stats. And it was good too. It was about how the Steelers got back to their grass roots while running the ball down the Chargers’ throats, controlling the time of possession and finally playing four quarters. At the time, Pittsburgh was up 28-0 and the game was essentially over as San Diego was on life support.

Then Jacob Hester made an incredible play early in the fourth when he stripped Stefan Logan on a punt return and raced 41 yards into the end zone to cut Pittsburgh’s lead to 28-14.

No problem I thought, a couple extra sentences ought to cover me as the Steelers answered Hester’s touchdown with one of their own to make it 35-14.

Then the journalism gods decided to punish me for writing a recap when the freaking game wasn’t even finished, because the Chargers got within one touchdown of the Steelers late in the fourth before Pittsburgh iced the game with a 46-yard Jeff Reed field goal to give the Steelers a 38-28 victory.

Annnnnnnnnddddd delete.

In reality, not much changed from the time the Steelers were up 28-0 to the time they walked away with a 38-28 win. They still dominated a hapless San Diego run defense by racking up 177 yards on the ground (Rashard Mendenhall finally strapped on the big boy pants and rushed for 165 yards and two touchdowns on 29 carries) and kept the ball for 40 minutes and 20 seconds, compared to the Chargers’ 19 minutes and 40 seconds.

Pittsburgh dominated this game, but it can’t sit well with Mike Tomlin that his team nearly had another fourth quarter collapse. The Steelers can’t figure out a way to put their opponents away and I don’t know if that’s coaching or if the players are at fault for letting up. Either way, it’s a troubling sign so far for a defending Super Bowl champion that has split its first four games of the season and has looked rather mediocre.

Nevertheless, the Steelers earned their second victory of the year and did so by running the ball. Granted, Ben Roethlisberger looked great and the pass protection was outstanding, but this is a team that needs to run the football when the weather starts to turn and Pittsburgh did so tonight.

As for the Chargers, I applaud them for making it close in the end, but Norv Turner’s bunch didn’t show up until seven minutes left in the third when Hester gave them a spark. They were completely dominated in most phases of the game and all of a sudden they have zero running game. For a team that was supposed to walk away with the AFC West, San Diego barely looks like a .500 team right now.

Steelers continue to have issues as Bengals pull off upset

Let this sink in for a second: The defending champions are 1-2.

The Steelers were a 4th and 10 stop away from being 2-1 when they were up 20-15 with only 36 seconds remaining in Cincinnati on Sunday. But Bengals’ QB Carson Palmer avoided a sack and found Brian Leonard on an 11-yard completion to set Cincinnati up with a 1st and 4 from the Pittsburgh 4-yard line. Two plays later, Palmer found Andre Caldwell on a four-yard touchdown pass to put the Bengals up for good 23-20.

The theme continues for the Steelers. While they were able to rush for 102 yards, they only managed 3.6 YPC and essentially weren’t that effective. When they were leading 20-9 late in the third quarter, they couldn’t put Cincinnati away because they couldn’t milk the clock.

Pittsburgh won a Super Bowl last year despite the lack of a running game, but teams can’t consistently win when they can’t run the football. Some are going to look at the stat sheet and think that the Steelers were effective on the ground because they rushed for over 100 yards. But that simply wasn’t the case and it shows because the Bengals were able to score two fourth quarter touchdowns to earn the victory.

Willie Parker had a decent game, but when it was time for the Steelers to grind out the clock in the second half, he was much less effective. That caused Pittsburgh’s defense to be on the field too long in the fourth and Cincinnati capitalized.

But let’s give credit where credit is due – the Bengals’ deserved the victory. They came up with a huge play in the third quarter when a miscommunication between Ben Roethlisberger and Santonio Holmes led to a Jonathan Joseph 31-yard interception return for a touchdown. They hung around and hung around, waited for its moment to seize a win and then did so.

What’s amazing is that the Bengals could be 3-0 if it weren’t for Brandon Stokley’s fluke touchdown reception in Week 1. What’s even more amazing is that Cincinnati could be 3-0 and would have wins over the Packers (in Green Bay no less) and the Steelers.

There’s something about this Bengals team. They have an underrated defense, a healthy Palmer, a rejuvenated Cedric Benson and are finally playing inspired under Marvin Lewis.

Polamalu out 3-6 weeks?

Steelers head coach Mike Tomlin said that the initial diagnosis of safety Troy Polamalu is that he has a sprained MCL and will likely be out for the next three to six weeks.

From the Washington Post:

“It’s an MCL sprain,” Tomlin said during his postgame news conference. “They are reading the scans and so forth. Those things have a range of three to six [weeks]. It’s speculation at this point.”

Tomlin was asked if the injury possibly could be worse, and said: “I’m sure there is a possibility of it. But I don’t have any concrete evidence that there is anything more than that.”

Polamalu suffered the injury when the Titans’ Alge Crumpler landed on his knee after a blocked field goal attempt by Tennessee in the first half. Polamalu had an interception and was credited with six tackles before leaving the game.

It looks like the “Madden Curse” claimed another victim. Losing Polamalu for three to six weeks would be tough. Losing him for anything longer than that would be devastating for the defending champs.

The Steelers have a star-studded defense and everyone does their jobs to perfection. But they’re a different squad when they don’t have Polamalu freelancing and making big plays. He’s a missile in run support and blankets the entire field in coverage. They need him healthy and an injury lasting longer than six weeks would take its toll on Pittsburgh’s vaunted defense.

Don’t forget that the Steelers are already without linebacker Lawrence Timmons, who didn’t play last night because of an ankle injury. Depending on his status for next week, the Steelers could be down two key defensive starters and Week 1 still hasn’t wrapped up yet.

Steelers need to develop a running game

Entering the 2008 NFL season, the Steelers offensive line was supposed to be the one thing that would hold Pittsburgh back from being a Super Bowl contender.

But towards the end of the year the line gelled and while it still had issues run-blocking, the five starters became a cohesive unit and that became one of the big reasons the Steelers won their second title in four years.

Coming into this season, the offensive line wasn’t viewed as a strength, but it certainly wasn’t a weakness after the unit came together last year. Also, with former first round pick Rashard Mendenhall coming back, he would help keep Willie Parker fresh and the pair would form a nice 1-2 punch in Pittsburgh’s backfield.

But after watching the Steelers struggle once again to run the football in their 13-10 overtime win over the Titans on Thursday night, it appears that Pittsburgh still has issues moving the ball on the ground.

The Steelers’ running game ranked 23rd last year and Pittsburgh did nothing on Thursday night to quiet the concern that it will be more efficient in that area this season. Tennessee’s run defense is good (even without Albert Haynesworth commanding double-teams from his DT position), but Pittsburgh managed just 36 yards on the ground for a paltry 1.6 YPC-average. That’s brutal – I don’t care if they were playing against a concrete wall on every play.

The Steelers running game was non-existent and even when they would break off a decent run, one of the linemen would get a penalty to kill the play. And when the Steelers needed to pick up a huge third down inside Tennessee’s 10-yard line late in the fourth quarter, Mewelde Moore found zero running room and was shut down for no gain.

The Steelers wound up winning the Super Bowl last year without a running game, but that was an aberration. Teams usually have to run the ball to have success and while Pittsburgh’s passing game looked great at times again on Thursday night, one would think that their lack of a running game will eventually cost them.

The Steelers used to run the ball at will – now they rely on the pass to get them out of jams. How long can they keep winning that way, great defense or not?

Quick-Hitters:

- Even great veterans make mistakes from time to time. Hines Ward knows better – he never saw Michael Griffin and he’s lucky his fumble didn’t wind up costing the Steelers a win. (Although his hit on the Tennessee DB in overtime was nasty.)

- The Steelers’ defense did a great job of not giving in during the second half without safety Troy Polamalu, who hurt his knee in the second quarter and didn’t return. Hopefully Polamalu’s injury isn’t serious – fans deserve to see that guy play every week. (How amazing was his one-handed interception in the first quarter?)

Five Things to Watch: Titans at Steelers

The highly anticipated first game of the NFL season is tonight at 7:30 p.m. as the defending Super Bowl champion Steelers host the Titans at Heinz Field. Here are five things to watch as the 2009 NFL season kicks off with this opening matchup.

1. The Steeler offensive line.
Quarterback Ben Roethlisberger admitted that Pittsburgh became a Super Bowl contender last year when the offensive line gelled late in the season. What was supposed to be an Achilles heel for the Steelers actually turned out to be the thing that lifted them to a Super Bowl title. Now Pittsburgh has one of the more cohesive offensive lines in the league and while no one player stands out, the entire unit works well together and it’ll be interesting to see if they pick up tonight where they left off last February in Tampa.

2. How will the Titans fare without Albert Haynesworth?
Haynesworth was the key cog in Tennessee’s defense the past couple years while commanding double teams and freeing up those around him to make plays. In steps Tony Brown, a player coming off a great ’09 season and one that must fill the massive shoes left by Haynesworth. Brown is more than capable as an interior pass-rusher, but he probably won’t command double-teams like Haynesworth did. How will his linemates Jevon Kearse, Kyle Vanden Bosch and Jason Jones fare now that they might not see one-on-one matchups like they did when Haynesworth was playing next to them?

3. Do the Titans still lack offensive playmakers?
Running back Chris Johnson burst on the scene last year as a rookie, averaging 4.9 yards a carry and totaling 10 touchdowns (9 on the ground, 1 through the air). But it was clear in Tennessee’s loss to Baltimore in the AFC Divisional Round that the Titans lacked offensive playmakers. So they signed former Steeler Nate Washington and drafted Kenny Britt in the first round to give their receiving corps a boost. Will it be enough? We won’t find out about Washington tonight as he continues to battle an injured hamstring, but Britt practiced with the starting offense all week and will get an opportunity to play. Although he lacks elite speed, Britt was a monster after the catch while playing at Rutgers and could give quarterback Kerry Collins a nice weapon tonight in the passing game.

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