If you haven’t hopped on this gravy train yet then shame on you because these picks are crashing and burning on a weekly basis now. After my 1-2-1 effort in Week 5, my season record is 10-8-2 but I’m now 4-7-1 over the past three weeks. It’s only a matter of time before that season record of mine gets below .500 and I’m providing true “Fade Material.”

Here are my picks for Week 6. I see a couple of backdoor covers and one underdog that should be down by 21 points by the end of the first quarter…

Florida State @ Wake Forest, 12:30PM ET
The Seminoles are having a hell of a time trying to run the ball (they’re 115th in the nation in rushing offense) and injuries are starting to mount for FSU. Meanwhile, Wake Forest has won three straight games for the first time since 2007 and quarterback Tanner Price is off to the best four-game start in school history (1,119 yards). The ‘Noles are just 2-5 against the spread in their last seven road games against the Demon Deacons, while the underdog is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings between these two teams.
THE PICK: WAKE FOREST DEMON DEACONS +10

Florida @ LSU, 3:30PM ET
It’s going to be a long day for freshman quarterback Jeff Driskel, who is subbing for the injured Jeff Brantley in Baton Rouge today. LSU is allowing just 12.8 points per game and is coming off a game in which it allowed just 155 total yards in a win over Kentucky. The Gators are just 2-6-1 against the spread versus a team with a winning record and 1-4 ATS in their last five October games. I doubt LSU will roll but I don’t envision Florida scoring more than 10 points.
THE PICK: LSU TIGERS –13

Vanderbilt @ Alabama, 7:00PM ET
I’m choking on chalk this weekend but I don’t care. Vanderbilt is heading in the right direction under first-year coach James Franklin but very little is going to slow down this ‘Bama team from making a run at the national championship. The Tide are 15-1 all-time against Vanderbilt at Bryant-Denny Stadium and is outscoring opponents 45-8 in the fourth quarter this season. Nick Saban’s team doesn’t let up and even though this is a huge point spread, I like ‘Bama to produce a blowout for homecoming week in Tuscaloosa.
THE PICK: ALABAMA CRIMSON TIDE -29

Colorado @ Stanford, 7:30PM ET
Oddsmakers keep jacking up the point spread on Stanford and the Cardinal keeps covering. Thus, there’s no reason to hop off the Andrew Luck bandwagon now. Stanford is 6-0-1 against the number in their last seven conference games and 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 games overall. Meanwhile, the Buffs are just 1-4 ATS in their last five conference games and 0-5 ATS in their last five games as a road underdog of 10.5 points or greater.
THE PICK: STANFORD CARDINAL -29

Last Week: 1-2-1
Season: 10-8-2

Check out College Football Point Spreads at Bullz-Eye.com.

Well, go figure. I change the name of this column to “Fade Material” and then I start handing out winning picks. If I knew that was all I had to do, I would have changed the title years ago and avoided all the years of .500 or below predictions.

After a 3-1 performance in Week 1, I finished 3-0-1 with my Week 2 picks. Georgia was a push against South Carolina but TCU, Alabama and BYU had no problems covering. I’m still looking for my first sweep of the season, so let’s see if we can’t nail it this week. (Although I admit to having reservations about “Road Test Weekend.” There are some tough games on the board…)

Auburn @ Clemson, 12:00PM ET
Everyone keeps waiting for Auburn to lose and all they’ve done the past two weeks is pull wins out of their backsides. The No. 19 Tigers find themselves once again as underdogs, this time against an unranked Clemson team. Nobody can ever quite figure out Clemson, which either plays the game of its life or sinks to the level of its competition. They’re 1-4 against the spread in their last five home games and 3-7 ATS in their last 10 versus the SEC, while Auburn is 4-1 ATS in their last five road games. Auburn is also 6-0 ATS versus a team with a winning record and 4-0 ATS in their last four games an underdog. I think the Tigers of Auburn keeps this within a field goal, making that 3.5-point spread highly attractive.
THE PICK: AUBURN TIGERS +3.5

Ohio State @ Miami, 7:30PM ET
The Buckeyes face their first road test under new head coach Luke Fickell and while they didn’t look particularly sharp against Toledo last week at home, I like OSU to win outright tonight. They’ll face a quarterback in Jacory Harris, who is coming off a one-game suspension and who was unimpressive against Oho State last year. He threw four interceptions, including three in the first half alone. Granted, that was a different Buckeyes team last season but the defense is still solid and I expect them to give Harris trouble again this time around. The Buckeyes are 11-3 against the number in all games over the last two seasons and 14-4 ATS in road games in September since 1992.
THE PICK: OHIO STATE BUCKEYES +2.5

Northwestern @ Army, 3:30PM ET
The Wildcats are just 2-10 against the spread as a favorite over the last three seasons and 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games overall. Army, meanwhile, is 4-2 against the number coming off a home loss and 6-2 ATS in their last eight games following a straight up loss. Northwestern quarterback Dan Persa may be out for this game, which means it’ll be dual threat versus dual threat when Kain Colter battles Army’s Trent Steelman. I like the Black Knights to keep things close and get a big cover at home.
THE PICK: ARMY +6

Stanford @ Arizona, 10:45PM ET
Despite starting slow against Duke last week on the road, Stanford eventually got its offense going and cruised to a 44-14 victory (and an easy cover). The line keeps dropping in Arizona’s favor in this one and I’m not sure why (outside of the fact that they’re home). The Wildcats are 1-4 against the spread in their last five home games against Stanford and 2-6 ATS in their last eight overall meetings with the Cardinal. Meanwhile, Stanford is 7-0-1 ATS in their last eight games overall and 5-0-1 ATS in their last six games as a road favorite.
THE PICK: STANFORD –9

Last Week: 3-0-1
Season: 6-1-1

For a complete list of odds for Week 3 in College Football, check out Bullz-Eye.com.

2011 BCS Bowl Previews: BCS National Championship | Fiesta Bowl | Rose Bowl | Orange Bowl | Sugar Bowl

Date: Monday, January 3 2011
Time: 8:30PM ET
TV: ESPN

Why Watch: The Hokies became the first program in FBS history to win 11 straight games after starting their season 0-2. Frank Beamer’s squad could have folded after losing to FCS school James Madison but instead it rallied, winning 11 in a row in impressive fashion. VA Tech largely flew under the radar while knocking off ACC opponents with relative ease and then crushing Florida State in the conference championship game. Now the Hokies look to put a bow on their season with a win against arguably the best one-loss team in the nation. Stanford had one of the best seasons in school history, losing only to an undefeated Oregon team in early October. They have a Hesiman finalist at quarterback in Andrew Luck, who would probably go No. 1 in the NFL draft if he decides to go pro next season. The Cardinal also employs one of the hottest head coaches in the nation in Jim Harbaugh.

Game Facts Stanford is 9-11-1 all-time in bowl play and will be playing in the postseason for the second consecutive year following an eight-year absence. Oklahoma beat the Cardinal 31-27 in last year’s Sun Bowl. The Hokies will be playing in their fourth BCS bowl in the last seven seasons. They’re 9-14 all-time in bowl games and they’ll be making their 17th straight bowl appearance. Under Beamer, they’re 8-9 in bowl games, which includes 37-14 win over Tennessee in last year’s Chick-fil-A Bowl.

Key Player: Steven Friday, Virginia Tech.
They say the key to any good pass defense is a good pass rush and for Virginia Tech, that starts with Friday. The senior defensive end had 8.5 sacks to lead the Hokies this season. He’s incredibly quick off the edge and if he can harass quarterback Andrew Luck, the Hokies could slow down the possible No. 1 pick and the Cardinal offense.

Odds: Stanford -3.5
Stanford opened as a 3-point favorite but the line has gone up to 3.5 at most books. The public generally likes the favorite anyway, but they especially like a favorite with a good offense, which the Cardinal obviously has. As previously mentioned, keep in mind that Virginia Tech has also flown under the radar this season after losing to Boise State and James Madison in the first two weeks of the season. It’ll be interesting to see if the line drops back down to a field goal with sharp bettors taking the hook with Virginia Tech. The total dropped to 57.5 after opening at 58, but now it’s back up to 58.

How Virginia Tech can win: By playing the kind of football we’re used to seeing out of Virginia Tech. The Hokies can’t afford to get into a shootout with Stanford because as good as Tyrod Taylor is, Andrew Luck is better, and the Hokies offense just isn’t built to trade blows with a high-scoring opponent like Stanford. Tech will have to find a way to get stops against Luck, and make plays on special teams. That sounds a lot like the way Frank Beamer and Bud Foster have won in the past.

Why Stanford will win: Because it has an incredibly balanced offense. Teams that are balanced have given the Hokies a little bit of trouble this season, albeit they haven’t seen many teams like that. Boise State put up 33 in the opener, North Carolina State scored 30 later in the season and Florida State scored 33 in the ACC title game even without Christian Ponder. Stanford is definitely better offensively than NC State and Florida State, and could be on the same level as Boise. So while Virginia Tech might not have trouble putting points on the board, its inability to stop the Cardinal will be the difference.

Prediction: Stanford 38, Virginia Tech 30

Contributors: Anthony Stalter and Paul Costanzo

Today is a big day for TCU and Utah, as they get to prove themselves to a national audience in a huge game between top five teams.

Oh. Wait. This game is somehow not on any kind of normal television. I keep hearing CBS College Sports Network, which does nothing for me because I have a digital basic package. I figured Versus was going to bail me out, but nope. Versus is showing us the very important and very sought after Princeton vs. Penn game. I’d rather watch those two schools square off in quiz bowl. OK, that’s a lie. I don’t want to see that either.

Luckily for TCU and Utah, there’s a lot of hype around the game, meaning the winner will get some preferential treatment in the polls just by the final score. Not to mention the fact that TCU is being listed at No. 3 (its BCS ranking) and Boise at No. 4, while the Broncos are actually No. 3 in the coaches poll and TCU is No. 4. A win by the Horned Frogs just may push them past Boise, if for no other reason than the coaches might have just figured they already were. Don’t you love the BCS?

I went 3-2 last week, because I didn’t believe in Baylor, and I believed too much in USC. Oh well, I feel a 5-0 day coming up.

No. 21 Baylor at No. 17 Oklahoma State, 12:30 p.m.: I covered a high school game Friday night that finished 49-48. It was insane. That’s what this game will be like, although instead of me standing outside in 30-degree temperatures, I’ll be inside my warm house, watching a game played in a fairly warm climate. What I’m saying is both of these teams have super explosive offenses, but lack very good defenses, meaning we’re in for a track meet. It could be a “whoever has the ball last” kind of thing, in which case I just go with the home team. Pick: Oklahoma State 45-42.

No. 3 TCU at No. 5 Utah, 3:30 p.m.: Utah is carrying a 21-game home win streak into this one, which is pretty impressive. The Utes are also somewhat under the radar, if you can say that about an unbeaten team ranked in the top five. But with all the attention being paid to TCU and Boise State this year, people seem to have forgotten that Utah — the original BCS buster — has just as good a shot as being the team that completely breaks the mold this year. But … TCU is better. The Horned Frogs have an incredible defense, and have a more impressive resume to this point than Utah. They pounded Baylor, and for that matter, everyone they’ve played since beating Oregon State by nine in the opener. Utah could keep it close being at home — and the Utes are damn good team, too — but I don’t think it can win it. Pick: TCU 28-24.

No. 6 Alabama at No. 10 LSU, 3:30 p.m.: The breakdown in this game is simple — Alabama is a well-rounded team and shouldn’t have a ton of trouble with an LSU team that can’t score — so let’s look for other things to write about. Um, well, both teams are coming off a bye. That means the Tide had an extra week with Nick Saban and LSU had one with Les Miles. So the advantage in this one just went from “Alabama” to “are you kidding me? Alabama.” Pick: Alabama 23-12.

No. 18 Arkansas at No. 19 South Carolina, 7 p.m.: This game could be a shootout, considering Arkansas is still in search of a good defense, and South Carolina has a rough pass defense. I have a lot more faith in the South Carolina defense, however, than I do Arkansas’ to come up with a stop or two when it matters. Not too mention South Carolina has Alshon Jeffery, who’s awesome. Pick: South Carolina 34-31.

No. 15 Arizona at No. 13 Stanford, 8 p.m.: This should be a big test for Andrew Luck and the Stanford offense as Arizona is No. 7 in the country in scoring defense. Arizona, though, has had one and a half tough games, and it lost the half (which actually counts as a whole … but I digress). Stanford has kind of fallen off the radar after losing to Oregon, and I think some people forget that the Cardinal had the Ducks on the ropes for a while. That’s about as good as you can get against the Ducks this year. Pick: Stanford 28-20.

College football season continues to be awesome. It seems like every week I sit down to write my picks (which also continue to be awesome) there are a handful of games that are can’t miss.

I don’t know if that’s because there’s an increasing number of good teams in college football, or if all the cupcakes teams were feasting on at the beginning of the season beefed up their records artificially. Either way, I like being excited on a Friday night for what I’m about to see the next day, and I’ve been like that for a few weeks now.

This week is no different, in fact, it’s about as big as any weekend of the season. And maybe that’s artificially inflated for myself living in Michigan and seeing about 50% of my Facebook “friends” switch their profile picture to something Michigan or Michigan State related. It’s half exciting and half terribly annoying (example: New friend request from John Doe. Hmm, John Doe doesn’t ring a bell, I wonder what he looks like. Oh, he looks just like Denard Robinson. Strange. Ignore. (Not true, I never ignore. My ego can use all the friends it can get, virtual or not.)).

Enough parentheses, let’s get to the games.

I went 4-1 again last week, because I can’t seem to nail down Michigan State, which, oddly enough, is the major university closest to me geographically.

No. 1 Alabama at No. 19 South Carolina, 3:30 p.m.: A lot is being made of the fact that Alabama’s next five opponents will be playing the Tide after a week off. The first of those opponents is South Carolina, which features a solid defense, a bruising true freshman running back and a not-so-consistent passing game. I like Stephen Garcia. I don’t know why, I just do. But there’s no way in Hell he can be the reason the Gamecocks beat Alabama, which is what needs to happen. You need to be able to throw the ball better than just OK to beat the Tide this year (as Arkansas nearly proved), and South Carolina doesn’t have that luxury. Marcus Lattimore is a stud, but he’s going to get a rude awakening this weekend. Pick: Alabama 24-17.

No. 17 Michigan State at No. 18 Michigan, 3:30 p.m.: I’m not sure Denard Robinson can be stopped for a full game. He’s going to get his at some point, he’s just way too explosive not to. But you can stop him once or twice a game, which, unfortunately for Michigan, could be enough to beat the Wolverines. Seriously, if your offense doesn’t beat itself, you could literally score every time it took the field. Michigan’s defense is somewhere between putrid and whatever is worse than putrid. UMass made the Wolverines look like a D-II team, which is bad, because UMass is a I-AA team (FCS, whatever). Today is the day Michigan finally truly pays for this. Pick: MSU 38-35.

No. 12 LSU at No. 14 Florida, 7:30 p.m.: First, watch this. Now, think to yourself, how could a team that does that (even though it survived) beat a team coached by Urban Meyer? Well, here’s how: When that Urban Meyer coached team can’t score points, and is coming off a physical beatdown by Alabama, it’s beatable by anyone, including a team coached by Les Miles that relies completely on its defense. Yes, I’m predicting Les Miles to be 6-0. Pick: LSU 14-10.

No. 23 Florida State at No. 13 Miami, 8 p.m.: Florida State looks awesome this year, against teams that are awful. Miami has the strange ability to look really good and really bad in a matter of minutes of the same game. I attribute this to quarterback Jacory Harris, who personifies that ability. If he’s 75% good Jacory tonight, Miami will win. Pick: Miami 24-20.

USC at No. 16 Stanford, 8 p.m.: The thought of USC getting pounded again is kind of exciting to me, I’m not going to lie. Although, instead of “What’s your deal,” I’d imagine Lane Kiffin might just shake Jim Harbaugh’s hand and say, “Well played.” Expect several fourth down tries in this one, as well as some two-point conversion attempts. Also, expect Andrew Luck to absolutely dominate USC’s horrific passing defense. Pick: Stanford 45-31.

Say what you want about Nick Saban and Urban Meyer (and believe me, there’s plenty to say about both of them), but they are very likely the two best coaches in college football right now.

The duo has combined for four national titles since 2003, and it wouldn’t be that far fetched to say they’ll combine to win another four in the next eight seasons. Alabama and Florida are at the top of the college football heap, and will continue to be there as long as these two men are at the top.

Apparently, they could have been together, but Saban big-timed Meyer and didn’t return his call in 1990. In Saban’s defense, 1990 was before caller ID (right?) and maybe his wife lost the phone number, or took it down wrong. Or maybe Saban is a big-timer (this is probably more likely). Either way, Urban seems to have forgiven him. Probably because he’s done well enough for himself since then.

Their teams play each other today, in what’s probably the game of the day when you consider everything (records, rankings, history, etc.). Click ahead to see who wins that one and more.

I went 4-1 last week, with my only blemish coming because of Steve Spurrier’s decision to bench his three-year starter who had fumbled twice while working for extra yards, for a freshman, on the road in a hostile environment. The football gods won’t allow me to be perfect, I guess.

No. 21 Texas at No. 8 Oklahoma, 3:30 p.m.: While Oklahoma has been less than impressive in games it should have rolled in, there’s nothing on its record as awful as Texas’ whooping at the hands of UCLA last week. The Longhorns were straight up whooped on the ground by the Bruins, who had been straight up whooped by Stanford just a couple of weeks ago. I haven’t used straight up that many times in a sentence since I went through my Paula Abdul phase, but it’s all warranted! Seriously, how hot was Paula Abdul before she went crazy? Yes, Paula, I want to love you forever. And Texas is about to be hit in another hit and run. Pick: Oklahoma 31-17.

No. 11 Wisconsin at No. 24 Michigan State, 3:30 p.m.: Mark Dantonio is returning to his coaching duties, but from the booth. Look, I’m no doctor, but wouldn’t being in the booth be as hard on your heart as being on the sidelines? I suppose I don’t understand why there’s a difference, but that’s probably why I’m not a doctor, and instead I’m writing about not being a doctor on a blog. But here’s some real talk: Michigan State’s defense has seemed to be weakest against the pass, but that’s mostly because it played a Notre Dame team that’s allergic to consistently running and three teams that are, well, bad. John Clay and Co. are going to run the ball, though, and I don’t think the Spartans can stop them. Pick: Wisconsin 24-20.

No. 7 Florida at No. 1 Alabama, 8 p.m.: Florida fans are frothing at the mouth about Trey Burton, who did his best Tim Tebow impression last week against Kentucky (that’s not fair to Burton, actually. His best Tebow impression against Kentucky would have included getting drilled straight on and suffering a concussion). But even the great Tebow wasn’t enough for Florida to figure out Saban’s Alabama defense. The Tide played the best offense it will see all year last week, and when it figured things out, it forced the best quarterback it will see into some pretty big-time mistakes. I don’t think John Brantley and the Trey Burton package of plays is going to be enough for the Gators, even if their defense slows down Mark Ingram and the ‘Bama offense. Pick: Alabama 20-13.

No. 9 Stanford at No. 4 Oregon, 8 p.m.: You won’t find a bigger contrast of styles at a higher level than this game. Stanford wants to punch you in the mouth, then fake punching you in the mouth and throw over the top of you. Oregon wants to run around and away from you. Both teams are great at what they do, and I think on a neutral field, Stanford wins this game. But these teams are so evenly matched that I think the Autzen Stadium crowd makes the difference here. Pick: Oregon 31-30.

No. 22 Penn State at No. 17 Iowa, 8:05 p.m.: I’ve said this before (to someone, not sure if it was you people), but I think Robert Bolden is going to be a great quarterback at Penn State. I watched him in the state championship game last year for Orchard Lake St. Mary’s and was more impressed with him than I was with Michigan’s Devin Gardner (albeit in different games). But that’s the future. Right now, Bolden is a true freshman taking his lumps against teams like Alabama and Iowa. I expect Adrian Clayborn and Co. to make frequent visits to the freshman tonight. Pick: Iowa 24-9.

Perhaps the only thing worse for Jake Locker than his atrocious performance against Nebraska last week, is the fact that he has an off week to think about said performance and so does everyone else.

Locker was many expert’s favorite to be the top pick, or at least the top quarterback, in the 2011 NFL Draft because of his arm strength and mobility. The 4-for-20 stinker against Nebraska changed a lot of those minds, however, including Locker’s stalker biggest fan, ESPN’s Todd McShay.

So who steps up in his place? We may find out today. The other top QB prospects this year — Arkansas’ Ryan Mallett and Stanford’s Andrew Luck — each have a big chance to showcase their talents this afternoon on a big stage.

Mallett gets a chance to prove he can do what Locker couldn’t a week ago: Have a big game against an elite defense. The Razorbacks play host to top-ranked Alabama, and while it’s a relatively inexperienced secondary that he’ll be facing, carving up a Nick Saban-coached defense can do wonders for one’s draft stock. A win could vault Mallett to the top of draft boards, but he could also get there in a loss. Arkansas’ defense has never been looked at as a strength, so if Mallett has a strong game in a shootout, he should still get a lot of credit.

Luck isn’t facing a defense near as good as the one Mallett will see today, but he is playing on a big stage. Stanford heads to Notre Dame, which — like it or not — is going to get him a lot of attention. The Irish secondary is nowhere near elite, but if Luck puts up huge numbers, he wouldn’t be the first quarterback to be elevated for it (see: Russell, Jamarcus).

Stanford and Luck should have more success today, but it’s probably Mallett who has more to gain. Either way, all Locker can do is sit and watch.