If you haven’t hopped on this gravy train yet then shame on you because these picks are crashing and burning on a weekly basis now. After my 1-2-1 effort in Week 5, my season record is 10-8-2 but I’m now 4-7-1 over the past three weeks. It’s only a matter of time before that season record of mine gets below .500 and I’m providing true “Fade Material.”

Here are my picks for Week 6. I see a couple of backdoor covers and one underdog that should be down by 21 points by the end of the first quarter…

Florida State @ Wake Forest, 12:30PM ET
The Seminoles are having a hell of a time trying to run the ball (they’re 115th in the nation in rushing offense) and injuries are starting to mount for FSU. Meanwhile, Wake Forest has won three straight games for the first time since 2007 and quarterback Tanner Price is off to the best four-game start in school history (1,119 yards). The ‘Noles are just 2-5 against the spread in their last seven road games against the Demon Deacons, while the underdog is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings between these two teams.
THE PICK: WAKE FOREST DEMON DEACONS +10

Florida @ LSU, 3:30PM ET
It’s going to be a long day for freshman quarterback Jeff Driskel, who is subbing for the injured Jeff Brantley in Baton Rouge today. LSU is allowing just 12.8 points per game and is coming off a game in which it allowed just 155 total yards in a win over Kentucky. The Gators are just 2-6-1 against the spread versus a team with a winning record and 1-4 ATS in their last five October games. I doubt LSU will roll but I don’t envision Florida scoring more than 10 points.
THE PICK: LSU TIGERS –13

Vanderbilt @ Alabama, 7:00PM ET
I’m choking on chalk this weekend but I don’t care. Vanderbilt is heading in the right direction under first-year coach James Franklin but very little is going to slow down this ‘Bama team from making a run at the national championship. The Tide are 15-1 all-time against Vanderbilt at Bryant-Denny Stadium and is outscoring opponents 45-8 in the fourth quarter this season. Nick Saban’s team doesn’t let up and even though this is a huge point spread, I like ‘Bama to produce a blowout for homecoming week in Tuscaloosa.
THE PICK: ALABAMA CRIMSON TIDE -29

Colorado @ Stanford, 7:30PM ET
Oddsmakers keep jacking up the point spread on Stanford and the Cardinal keeps covering. Thus, there’s no reason to hop off the Andrew Luck bandwagon now. Stanford is 6-0-1 against the number in their last seven conference games and 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 games overall. Meanwhile, the Buffs are just 1-4 ATS in their last five conference games and 0-5 ATS in their last five games as a road underdog of 10.5 points or greater.
THE PICK: STANFORD CARDINAL -29

Last Week: 1-2-1
Season: 10-8-2

Check out College Football Point Spreads at Bullz-Eye.com.

Well, go figure. I change the name of this column to “Fade Material” and then I start handing out winning picks. If I knew that was all I had to do, I would have changed the title years ago and avoided all the years of .500 or below predictions.

After a 3-1 performance in Week 1, I finished 3-0-1 with my Week 2 picks. Georgia was a push against South Carolina but TCU, Alabama and BYU had no problems covering. I’m still looking for my first sweep of the season, so let’s see if we can’t nail it this week. (Although I admit to having reservations about “Road Test Weekend.” There are some tough games on the board…)

Auburn @ Clemson, 12:00PM ET
Everyone keeps waiting for Auburn to lose and all they’ve done the past two weeks is pull wins out of their backsides. The No. 19 Tigers find themselves once again as underdogs, this time against an unranked Clemson team. Nobody can ever quite figure out Clemson, which either plays the game of its life or sinks to the level of its competition. They’re 1-4 against the spread in their last five home games and 3-7 ATS in their last 10 versus the SEC, while Auburn is 4-1 ATS in their last five road games. Auburn is also 6-0 ATS versus a team with a winning record and 4-0 ATS in their last four games an underdog. I think the Tigers of Auburn keeps this within a field goal, making that 3.5-point spread highly attractive.
THE PICK: AUBURN TIGERS +3.5

Ohio State @ Miami, 7:30PM ET
The Buckeyes face their first road test under new head coach Luke Fickell and while they didn’t look particularly sharp against Toledo last week at home, I like OSU to win outright tonight. They’ll face a quarterback in Jacory Harris, who is coming off a one-game suspension and who was unimpressive against Oho State last year. He threw four interceptions, including three in the first half alone. Granted, that was a different Buckeyes team last season but the defense is still solid and I expect them to give Harris trouble again this time around. The Buckeyes are 11-3 against the number in all games over the last two seasons and 14-4 ATS in road games in September since 1992.
THE PICK: OHIO STATE BUCKEYES +2.5

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2011 BCS Bowl Previews: BCS National Championship | Fiesta Bowl | Rose Bowl | Orange Bowl | Sugar Bowl

Date: Monday, January 3 2011
Time: 8:30PM ET
TV: ESPN

Why Watch: The Hokies became the first program in FBS history to win 11 straight games after starting their season 0-2. Frank Beamer’s squad could have folded after losing to FCS school James Madison but instead it rallied, winning 11 in a row in impressive fashion. VA Tech largely flew under the radar while knocking off ACC opponents with relative ease and then crushing Florida State in the conference championship game. Now the Hokies look to put a bow on their season with a win against arguably the best one-loss team in the nation. Stanford had one of the best seasons in school history, losing only to an undefeated Oregon team in early October. They have a Hesiman finalist at quarterback in Andrew Luck, who would probably go No. 1 in the NFL draft if he decides to go pro next season. The Cardinal also employs one of the hottest head coaches in the nation in Jim Harbaugh.

Game Facts Stanford is 9-11-1 all-time in bowl play and will be playing in the postseason for the second consecutive year following an eight-year absence. Oklahoma beat the Cardinal 31-27 in last year’s Sun Bowl. The Hokies will be playing in their fourth BCS bowl in the last seven seasons. They’re 9-14 all-time in bowl games and they’ll be making their 17th straight bowl appearance. Under Beamer, they’re 8-9 in bowl games, which includes 37-14 win over Tennessee in last year’s Chick-fil-A Bowl.

Key Player: Steven Friday, Virginia Tech.
They say the key to any good pass defense is a good pass rush and for Virginia Tech, that starts with Friday. The senior defensive end had 8.5 sacks to lead the Hokies this season. He’s incredibly quick off the edge and if he can harass quarterback Andrew Luck, the Hokies could slow down the possible No. 1 pick and the Cardinal offense.

Read the rest of this entry »

Today is a big day for TCU and Utah, as they get to prove themselves to a national audience in a huge game between top five teams.

Oh. Wait. This game is somehow not on any kind of normal television. I keep hearing CBS College Sports Network, which does nothing for me because I have a digital basic package. I figured Versus was going to bail me out, but nope. Versus is showing us the very important and very sought after Princeton vs. Penn game. I’d rather watch those two schools square off in quiz bowl. OK, that’s a lie. I don’t want to see that either.

Luckily for TCU and Utah, there’s a lot of hype around the game, meaning the winner will get some preferential treatment in the polls just by the final score. Not to mention the fact that TCU is being listed at No. 3 (its BCS ranking) and Boise at No. 4, while the Broncos are actually No. 3 in the coaches poll and TCU is No. 4. A win by the Horned Frogs just may push them past Boise, if for no other reason than the coaches might have just figured they already were. Don’t you love the BCS? Read the rest of this entry »

College football season continues to be awesome. It seems like every week I sit down to write my picks (which also continue to be awesome) there are a handful of games that are can’t miss.

I don’t know if that’s because there’s an increasing number of good teams in college football, or if all the cupcakes teams were feasting on at the beginning of the season beefed up their records artificially. Either way, I like being excited on a Friday night for what I’m about to see the next day, and I’ve been like that for a few weeks now.

This week is no different, in fact, it’s about as big as any weekend of the season. And maybe that’s artificially inflated for myself living in Michigan and seeing about 50% of my Facebook “friends” switch their profile picture to something Michigan or Michigan State related. It’s half exciting and half terribly annoying (example: New friend request from John Doe. Hmm, John Doe doesn’t ring a bell, I wonder what he looks like. Oh, he looks just like Denard Robinson. Strange. Ignore. (Not true, I never ignore. My ego can use all the friends it can get, virtual or not.)).

Enough parentheses, let’s get to the games. Read the rest of this entry »

Say what you want about Nick Saban and Urban Meyer (and believe me, there’s plenty to say about both of them), but they are very likely the two best coaches in college football right now.

The duo has combined for four national titles since 2003, and it wouldn’t be that far fetched to say they’ll combine to win another four in the next eight seasons. Alabama and Florida are at the top of the college football heap, and will continue to be there as long as these two men are at the top.

Apparently, they could have been together, but Saban big-timed Meyer and didn’t return his call in 1990. In Saban’s defense, 1990 was before caller ID (right?) and maybe his wife lost the phone number, or took it down wrong. Or maybe Saban is a big-timer (this is probably more likely). Either way, Urban seems to have forgiven him. Probably because he’s done well enough for himself since then.

Their teams play each other today, in what’s probably the game of the day when you consider everything (records, rankings, history, etc.). Click ahead to see who wins that one and more. Read the rest of this entry »

Perhaps the only thing worse for Jake Locker than his atrocious performance against Nebraska last week, is the fact that he has an off week to think about said performance and so does everyone else.

Locker was many expert’s favorite to be the top pick, or at least the top quarterback, in the 2011 NFL Draft because of his arm strength and mobility. The 4-for-20 stinker against Nebraska changed a lot of those minds, however, including Locker’s stalker biggest fan, ESPN’s Todd McShay.

So who steps up in his place? We may find out today. The other top QB prospects this year — Arkansas’ Ryan Mallett and Stanford’s Andrew Luck — each have a big chance to showcase their talents this afternoon on a big stage.

Mallett gets a chance to prove he can do what Locker couldn’t a week ago: Have a big game against an elite defense. The Razorbacks play host to top-ranked Alabama, and while it’s a relatively inexperienced secondary that he’ll be facing, carving up a Nick Saban-coached defense can do wonders for one’s draft stock. A win could vault Mallett to the top of draft boards, but he could also get there in a loss. Arkansas’ defense has never been looked at as a strength, so if Mallett has a strong game in a shootout, he should still get a lot of credit.

Luck isn’t facing a defense near as good as the one Mallett will see today, but he is playing on a big stage. Stanford heads to Notre Dame, which — like it or not — is going to get him a lot of attention. The Irish secondary is nowhere near elite, but if Luck puts up huge numbers, he wouldn’t be the first quarterback to be elevated for it (see: Russell, Jamarcus).

Stanford and Luck should have more success today, but it’s probably Mallett who has more to gain. Either way, all Locker can do is sit and watch.

By the end of the day today, we could have a whole new look at the national title picture. Then again, you could say that any week in college football.

This time, however, there’s actually a chance that things could get jumbled up. The top team in the country, Alabama, is facing by far its stiffest test of the season as it travels to Fayetteville to take on Ryan Mallett and Arkansas. No. 3 Boise State will play in its second — and probably last — “showcase” game of the year when it plays host to Oregon State.

We know that if Boise State loses, a lot of the debate about who deserves what will go away, at least until we have to sort through a handful of one-loss teams at the end of the season (but we’ll save that for later). If the Tide lose and the Broncos win, is Boise all of the sudden in the driver’s seat for a spot in the title game? Probably not, actually.

It’s a big slate today, so find a spot on the couch by the mid-afternoon games and settle in for some good football. Read the rest of this entry »

Stanford running back Toby Gerhart rushed for 223 yards and three touchdowns as the Cardinal shocked No. 8 Oregon 51-42 on Saturday.

From ESPN.com:

Andrew Luck completed 12 of 20 for 251 yards with two touchdowns and no interceptions to lead Stanford past Oregon, 51-42. Toby Gerhart rushed for 223 yards and three touchdowns.

Stanford finished with 505 total yards. Oregon had been giving up only 301 yards per game.

Sure, Oregon seemed to suffer a hangover from its 47-20 win over USC last weekend. But this was about Stanford’s offense dominating the Ducks defense, and the Ducks offense not being able to keep up.

What does it mean?

It means the Pac-10 is now wide-open. Arizona controls its own fate, but there is so much football left that it’s almost meaningless to speculate.

It means the Pac-10 is out of the national title hunt.

It means the Oregon vs. Boise State rankings debate ends.

And it means Stanford, at 6-3, is bowl eligible. The Cardinal haven’t gone to a bowl since 2001.

This had trap written all over it, although I still thought Oregon would prevail. The Ducks just couldn’t match the intensity it had from last week’s huge win over USC. They were emotionally spent and Stanford took full advantage of it but taking it to them for four quarters. Gerhart was amazing today and his performance may have catapulted him back into the Heisman race.

Boise State stands to benefit the most from Oregon’s loss. Some had started to question whether or not the Ducks deserved to be ranked higher than the Broncos, even though Boise routed Oregon in the opening week of the season. With the Ducks now out of the way, the Broncos can start working on that whole style points thing that they continue to struggle with.

- Raise your hand if you thought Stanford would upset USC again when the score was tied 17-17 at halftime. (Hand raised.)

- Not that a ton of people care about Conference USA, but what a statement by Houston. I don’t know what was more impressive, the fact that the Cougars scored 70 points or that they held Tulsa to only 30 points.

- Iowa’s Shonn Grenne (30 carries, 211 yards in a 22-17 win over Purdue) is a legit Heisman candidate for 2009.

- What happened to Kansas? I realize they didn’t play any of the top teams in the Big 12 last year, but they’re better than 6-5 aren’t they?

- They might have won 34-7, but Penn State’s win over Indiana was the least impressive 34-7 victory in some time.

- One of the more underrated rivalries in college football is Georgia-Auburn. And the Tigers easily have one of the more underrated defenses in the nation.

- Early upset watch for Week 13: Nevada over Boise State. The Wolf Pack’s offense is good enough to keep pace with the Broncos’ explosive attack and Boise hasn’t faced a tough opponent all year. (Unless you consider when they faced Oregon and their fourth string quarterback a tough opponent.)

- Worst…Michigan…season…ever.

- Underrated game of the week: No. 14 Ball State at Central Michigan next Wednesday.

- College football fans were cheated by not getting to see Beanie Wells run for a full season. He was amazing against Illinois.

- How about Troy hanging with LSU in Baton Rouge? Had they not turned the ball over three times, the Trojans could have pulled off one of the best upsets in college football this season.