Baltimore Ravens at New England Patriots
1:00 pm ET
TV—CBS

Last season, the Ravens began their playoff journey as a wild card by upsetting the AFC East champion Dolphins, and then upsetting the top seeded Tennessee Titans, before losing to the eventual champion Steelers in the AFC championship game. This season the Ravens went 10-6 and eked into the playoffs in Week 17, but their losses have mostly been close games, including a 27-21 defeat in New England in Week 4. The Ravens’ fifth ranked rushing attack is led by RB Ray Rice, and they will once again use their stout defense (ranked third overall) to try and stop Tom Brady, Randy Moss and company. The Patriots will try to run the ball to control the clock and keep it away from Rice, and also try to use said running game to allow Brady and his receivers to stretch the field. Of course, everyone knows that Wes Welker is out for the season after jamming his knee into the Reliant Stadium turf last Sunday. But did anyone expect rookie WR (and 7th round draft pick) Julian Edelman to catch 10 passes for 103 yards and run up and down the field looking like a Welker clone doing it? Not really. Still, Brady didn’t have guys named Lewis, Suggs and Reed lining up on the other side last week, and those guys in purple jerseys could force him into making a few mistakes. The bottom line, however, is that the Patriots are 8-0 at home this season, and a Bill Belichick coached team is a tough out in the playoffs.
THE PICK: PATRIOTS 26, RAVENS 17

Green Bay Packers at Arizona Cardinals
4:40 pm ET
TV—FOX

Amazingly, this game is the third contest of the weekend that is a rematch of a Week 17 game, and like the Philly/Dallas game, this one is also in the same building, at University of Phoenix Stadium in Arizona. Will it be the same outcome though? Last week, the Packers played all of their starters in annihilating the defending NFC champs 33-7, but Cardinals coach Ken Whisenhunt did not use star QB Kurt Warner after the first quarter. Still, how much of that crap about tipping your hand before playing an opponent again do you believe? This is the NFL, and the team that executes their game plan usually wins. Packers’ coach Mike McCarthy believed that letting Aaron Rodgers and his receivers stretch the field against the Cardinals’ 23rd ranked pass defense, as well as mixing in a heavy dose of Ryan Grant and Ahman Green to run the ball and keep it away from Warner and Matt Leinart was an effective strategy. Of course, McCarthy’s Packers boast the #1 rushing defense in the NFL and the #5 passing defense, so they feel like they can stop whoever is trying to move the ball against them anyway, especially if star CB Charles Woodson suits up after aggravating a shoulder injury last week. Remember, though, that the Cardinals are recently playoff tested, and came within a brilliant Santonio Holmes touchdown catch from winning it all less than a year ago.
THE PICK: PACKERS 33, CARDINALS 30

For all intents and purposes, Dennis Dixon only made one mistake on Sunday night but unfortunately for him and the Steelers, that one mistake cost them a potential victory.

Dixon’s interception in overtime set the table for the Ravens to kick a game-winning field goal in a 20-17 victory. The win helped Baltimore improve to 6-5 on the season and kept its playoff hopes alive, while Pittsburgh fell to 6-5 and has now lost three in a row.

Dixon, a third stringer making his first career start, gave the Steelers a chance to win in the second half when he broke off a 24-yard touchdown run early in the fourth quarter. He also threw a 33-yard touchdown pass to Santonio Holmes in the second quarter and had a 31-yard run called back due to a holding call.

But on the possession following his fourth quarter touchdown run, the Ravens converted on a 4th and 5 from their own 46-yard line when Joe Flacco hit Ray Rice on a 44-yard completion. The drive ended in a field goal, which potentially forced overtime with the score tied 7-7.

Take away Dixon’s interception and the Steelers’ offense played pretty good – ultra conservative, but good. It was Pittsburgh’s defense that yielded several big plays, including Rice’s fourth down reception and a 54-yard reception by Mark Clayton late in the second half that set up a 10-yard Derrick Mason touchdown. If the Steelers had limited the big plays, Dixon’s effort would have been enough.

Pittsburgh needs a healthy Troy Polamalu back in the lineup if it has any chance of making another run at a Super Bowl, nevertheless the playoffs. Without him, Pittsburgh’s defense is good but certainly not great, which has been evident the past couple weeks.

The Pittsburgh Steelers are far from perfect, in fact, they might be the best imperfect team in the NFL, if that makes any sense. But as long as they have Ben Roethlisberger under center, they’re going to have a chance to win most on most Sundays.

The Steelers beat the Browns 27-14 on Sunday in a sloppy game that had little to no flow to it. Both teams combined for eight turnovers and Cleveland didn’t even total 200 yards of offense. Yet through all the muck, Big Ben was 23-of-35 for 417 yards and two touchdowns while helping Pittsburgh gain 543 yards of total offense.

Rothlisberger absolutely shredded the Browns’ secondary, connecting with Hines Ward, Santonio Holmes, Heath Miller and Mike Wallace with regularity on plays that gained 25-yards or more. He also rushed six times for 11 yards and once again kept plays alive with his mobility in the pocket. I realize shredding a Browns secondary that is susceptible to giving up big plays isn’t a monumental event for a quarterback, but it’s hard not to appreciate how good Big Ben looked on Sunday.

Tom Brady and Petyon Manning are known for putting their teams on their shoulders and leading them to victory. He’s usually not brought up in the same discussion, but Roethlisberger is definitely on Brady and Manning’s level when it comes to that ability. Granted, he’s often aided by how good Pittsburgh’s defense is, but there’s no denying that he’s an exceptional quarterback. And more times than not, he covers up how flawed the Steelers truly are.

Let this sink in for a second: The defending champions are 1-2.

The Steelers were a 4th and 10 stop away from being 2-1 when they were up 20-15 with only 36 seconds remaining in Cincinnati on Sunday. But Bengals’ QB Carson Palmer avoided a sack and found Brian Leonard on an 11-yard completion to set Cincinnati up with a 1st and 4 from the Pittsburgh 4-yard line. Two plays later, Palmer found Andre Caldwell on a four-yard touchdown pass to put the Bengals up for good 23-20.

The theme continues for the Steelers. While they were able to rush for 102 yards, they only managed 3.6 YPC and essentially weren’t that effective. When they were leading 20-9 late in the third quarter, they couldn’t put Cincinnati away because they couldn’t milk the clock.

Pittsburgh won a Super Bowl last year despite the lack of a running game, but teams can’t consistently win when they can’t run the football. Some are going to look at the stat sheet and think that the Steelers were effective on the ground because they rushed for over 100 yards. But that simply wasn’t the case and it shows because the Bengals were able to score two fourth quarter touchdowns to earn the victory.

Willie Parker had a decent game, but when it was time for the Steelers to grind out the clock in the second half, he was much less effective. That caused Pittsburgh’s defense to be on the field too long in the fourth and Cincinnati capitalized.

But let’s give credit where credit is due – the Bengals’ deserved the victory. They came up with a huge play in the third quarter when a miscommunication between Ben Roethlisberger and Santonio Holmes led to a Jonathan Joseph 31-yard interception return for a touchdown. They hung around and hung around, waited for its moment to seize a win and then did so.

What’s amazing is that the Bengals could be 3-0 if it weren’t for Brandon Stokley’s fluke touchdown reception in Week 1. What’s even more amazing is that Cincinnati could be 3-0 and would have wins over the Packers (in Green Bay no less) and the Steelers.

There’s something about this Bengals team. They have an underrated defense, a healthy Palmer, a rejuvenated Cedric Benson and are finally playing inspired under Marvin Lewis.

Last week, I posed a theory that Santonio Holmes puts up much better numbers when the Steelers struggle to run the ball.

Intuitively, this makes sense. The Steelers have always wanted to be a running team, and generally don’t cut the passing game loose unless they’re having real problems on the ground. In the 17 games over the past two-plus seasons where the Steelers have averaged fewer than 4.0 ypc, Holmes has averaged 4.3 receptions for 74 yards and 0.8 TD, which equates to 16.6 fantasy points per game. Last season, eight WRs — Andre Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald, Anquan Boldin, Brandon Marshall, Roddy White, Calvin Johnson, Antonio Bryant
and Steve Smith — had higher averages.

What does this all mean? Well, when the Steelers have trouble running (i.e. they are unable to rush for 4.0 ypc or more), then Santonio Holmes is a top 10 receiver. This happened in 17 of the Steelers’ last 34 games, and 12 of those 17 games were in 2008 or 2009, so as the Steelers continue to have bigger and bigger problems running the ball, Holmes’s average production should continue to rise.

It’s worth noting that in games where the Steelers rushed for 4.0 ypc or more, Holmes averaged 3.7 receptions for 57 yards and 0.2 TD (or 10.5 fantasy points). These are WR30-WR35 numbers.

In Week 2, the Steelers visited the Bears, who traditionally have a good rush defense. Pittsburgh running backs gained 99 yards on 19 carries, which equates to a healthy 5.2 yards per carry. But a good portion of those yards came on one play, a Rashard Mendenhall 39-yards scamper in the middle of the third quarter. Removing that play, the Steelers rushed for just 3.3 yards per carry.

For his part, Santonio Holmes had a pretty nice day in the receiving game. He caught five passes for 83 yards, but dropped a couple of balls, including a potential TD in the endzone. Still, in PPR leagues, this is a very reasonable 13.3 fantasy points.

Though the YPC doesn’t reflect it, the Steelers had a tough time running the ball on Sunday. And, once again, Holmes thrived. The Steelers play Cincinnati next week, and the Bengals have been pretty stingy against the run thus far, allowing just 3.6 ypc to opposing running backs. If the Steelers can’t get the Parker-Mendenhall-Moore RBBC going in the first half, Holmes should have another good day.

All right, a show of hands…how many of you thought that Santonio Holmes was going to start of the 2009 season with a 9-131-1 statline against the Tennessee Titans last night?

Be honest.

Holmes finished 2008 (his third season) as fantasy’s WR33, averaging 3.7 catches for 55 yards and 0.3 TD in 15 games. His ADP entering the season was in the 5th round, largely because of the numbers he produced in the playoffs. After a mediocre 2-25-0 start against the Chargers, he posted 2-70-1 against the Ravens in the AFC Championship Game and 9-131-1 against the Cardinals in the Super Bowl. (You’re reading that right — Holmes had the exact same line in the Super Bowl as he did last night against the Titans.)

Heading into the season, I thought Holmes was a nice value in the 6th round, or a decent pick in the 5th if I had to go WR and the other guys — Eddie Royal, Vincent Jackson, DeSean Jackson, Anthony Gonzalez and Braylon Edwards — were already gone. Holmes just seemed overrated after winning the Super Bowl MVP. After all, this is a guy who finished no better than WR29 in PPR leagues in the last two seasons, and converted just 48% of his targets into catches in 2008. (The league average last season was 57.5%.)

Holmes’ production seems to be at least partly dependent on how well the Steelers are running the ball. Over the past two-plus seasons (and including last night’s game), Holmes has posted 70-plus receiving yards in 13 games. In those games, the Steelers ran the ball well (4.0 ypc or greater) just three times: versus the Bengals and Rams in 2007 and again against the Bengals in 2008.

Read the rest of this entry »

Brainz.org lists the top 7 reasons why Super Bowl XLIII was an instant classic:

7. Arizona’s Three Goal Line Stands
Who would’ve thought Arizona would have three goal line stands? Granted, Pittsburgh’s short yardage running game is subpar but Arizona’s run defense was mediocre in the regular season…

6. Controversial Officiating
I already talked about Roethlisberger’s near touchdown. There were other close plays that will be debated by sports fans for years to come…

5. Two Great QB Performances from Possible Hall of Famers
Neither team could run, so they had to go with the pass. This could’ve been an ugly game if the quarterbacks threw too many incompletions but both Warner and Roethlisberger came to play…

4. The Longest Play in Super Bowl History
The Cardinals were one yard from paydirt with 18 seconds left in the first half. They had no timeouts but it was first down. They could’ve taken a couple shots in the end zone. However, they only got one play because Harrison stepped in front of a Warner pass and returned it 100 yards for a touchdown. Until this play, Warner was 15 for 16 with five touchdowns in the red zone for the 2009 playoffs…

3. Fitzgerald’s Insane Second Half
Fitzgerald proved that you can’t keep a good man down. His only reception in the first half was in the two minute warning. But in the second half, he exploded with 6 receptions, 112 yards, and 2 touchdowns…

2. The Greatest Super Bowl Comeback Ever… Almost
The greatest comeback was in Super Bowl XXII. The Washington Redskins trailed the Denver Broncos 10-0 at the start of the second quarter, but scored 35 unanswered points to put the game away…

1. Big Ben Does His Best Joe Montana Imitation
…you can’t have an instant classic Super Bowl game without a late game winning drive. (Okay, there’s the Titans vs Rams game but that’s the exception.)…

The article goes into more detail explaining every reason, so make sure to check out the link above to view the entire piece.

The reasons listed above are pretty compelling. Yes, Super Bowl XLIII had several great moments (Harrison’s interception, Fitzgerald’s big play, Holmes’ TD catch). But for me, the game was sloppy on a whole, uneventful in the first half outside of Harrison’s touchdown, and often controversial at times. I thought it was one of the greatest fourth quarters of any Super Bowl played, but not one of the greatest games.

If you want to be technical, I think Brainz.org is right – it was an instant classic. But so many people are coining XLIII the best Super Bowl ever played and I don’t think it even tops two other Bowls in the same decade (Super Bowl XLII between the Giants and Patriots and Super Bowl XXXXVIII between the Panthers and Patriots).

- Redskins’ running back Clinton Portis doesn’t like the idea of the Pro Bowl being moved to Miami next year because, “there’s going to be people getting DUIs.” As crazy as it sounds, Portis might have a point. (SPORTSbyBROOKS.com)

- FanIQ.com has video of what Santonio Holmes’ touchdown catch in the Super Bowl would look like on Tecmo Super Bowl.

- If the Patriots decided to not franchise tag quarterback Matt Cassel and allow him to walk, the Arrowhead Addict speculates he could eventually wind up in Kansas City with former New England front office guru Scott Pioli.

- Deadspin has video of two high school scorekeepers fighting over the number of fouls a player had. And they say hockey dads are crazy…

- The Love of Sports ranks the top 5 offensive rookies from the 2008 NFL season. (Videos included)

If you look at these pictures from SPORTSbyBROOKS.com (via Will Leitch’s personal blog), yeah, Holmes did:

From the looks of that second picture, it appears to me that he stuck both feet into the ground and therefore it was a touchdown. The top picture (which some media publications are using to prove that Holmes didn’t get two feet in), was likely taken either before or after the second photo. In fact, if you look at the first and third photos, Holmes has a piece of the turf stuck in his shoe. In the second photo, the turf appears to be absent, which would indicate that the first and third photos were shot after the second photo and therefore Holmes got his right foot down.

Later I’ll be reopening the JFK case by looking at evidence photos, so make sure to stop back.

Tim Kawakami of the Mercury News writes that while Super Bowl XLIII was exciting, it wasn’t a classic.

A classic? That was a fun Super Bowl, no question. A triple plot-twist, loop-de-loop carnival ride.

That was a raucous fourth quarter Sunday evening, full of Arizona Cardinals grit and, eventually, a great Pittsburgh Steelers drive to win 27-23 in Super Bowl XLIII.

Oh, and there was that stunning 100-yard interception return by Pittsburgh linebacker James Harrison to close the first half.

But was that really a classic, Ali-Frazier Super Bowl? I doubt history will treat it that way.
The protagonists were slightly less than epic and the action was just a bit too herky-jerk for instant masterpiece status. No Brett Favres or Lawrence Taylors in this game.

All those penalties. The wide-open receivers when the last thing the defense could afford was to leave wide-open receivers. That third-quarter sag.

Much better description: This was a classic example of the NFL’s Parity Era, when no team is good enough to dominate the Super Stage.

After all those blowouts in the late 1980s and early 1990s, and all those Super Teams, we’ve now had two shriek-finish Super Bowls in a row and five straight that were close in the fourth quarter.
The last blowout? Yep, Tampa Bay 48, Raiders 21 in Super Bowl XXXVII.

So Larry Fitzgerald was outstanding Sunday. Kurt Warner, too. Santonio Holmes was a revelation. Harrison made the greatest single play in Super Bowl history, by my reckoning.

But… this felt more like a good first-round playoff game that happened to have Bruce Springsteen at halftime and a spaceship capsule as the postgame stage.

Agreed. It was a sloppy game for the most part and take away Harrison’s interception return and the first half was largely uneventful. That doesn’t mean the game wasn’t entertaining because it was. But a classic? That’s reach.