The San Francisco Giants have had a rather quiet winter. Sure they made two trades in efforts to improve their weak offense, but acquiring outfielder Melky Cabrera for starter Jonathan Sanchez, and Angel Pagan for Andres Torres and Ramon Ramirez was hardly the moves fans were expecting. The Giants essentially said that they would be frugal this offseason and thus far, they’ve kept their word.

But nobody expected the club to struggle re-signing one of its coveted pitchers, especially the ace of the staff.

According to Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com, there is still a “sizable gap” in long-term contract talks between the Giants and Tim Lincecum. The club is believed to have improved upon its initial four-year offer from this summer, but Lincecum is thought to be seeking an eight-year deal.

Those close to the negotiations tell Heyman that both sides are weighing one-and-two-year contracts in case a long-term deal cannot be reached. Considering Lincecum already owns two Cy Young awards, helped the Giants win their first World Series title in San Francisco, and is coming off a season in which he posted a 2.74 ERA with 220 strikeouts, one would think San Francisco would jump at the chance to re-sign one of its prized pitching possessions. But apparently frugal is winning out at the moment.

The Giants also have a decision to make about No. 2 starter Matt Cain, who becomes a free agent at the end of the season. Cain posted career-highs in ERA (2.88) and WHIP (1.083), even though he only won 12 games last season. He’s been repeatedly burned by lack of run support over the years and if the Giants don’t want to pony up to keep him happy, maybe he’ll think about moving on after the 2012 season. He could potentially win 20 games with a team like the Yankees or Red Sox, who are constantly looking for good pitching.

If Buster Posey (leg) makes a full recovery, Pablo Sandoval keeps up on his offseason conditioning, and youngster Brandon Belt takes a major step in his development, the Giants’ offense won’t be as bad as it was in 2011. (Then again, how could be any worse?) But this club is built on its pitching so GM Brian Sabean has a lot of work to do in order to keep guys like Lincecum and Cain around long enough for the offense to finally blossom.

The St. Louis Cardinals knew they weren’t going to be able to replace the most productive player in franchise history in one fell swoop. But netting Carlos Beltran at least somewhat softens the blow of losing Albert Pujols this winter.

According to Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, the Cardinals have reached a two-year, $26 million contract with Beltran. The free agent outfielder batted .300 with a .910 OPS and 22 home runs in 142 games this past season for the New York Mets and San Francisco Giants. He was traded to San Francisco at the deadline for top pitching prospect Zach Wheeler, but he suffered a wrist injury that kept him out a few weeks and the Giants stunk down the stretch. (On a related note, it’s perplexing why the Giants didn’t even attempt to re-sign Beltran when they foolishly gave up their best minor league pitching prospect for what turned out to be a three-month rental.)

Beltran is expected to start in right field but he could move to center once Allen Craig recovers from offseason knee surgery. Craig told reporters earlier this week that he expects to be back by opening day, but the Cardinals will just have to wait and see how his recovery goes. The club also has John Jay, who will start in center when Beltran is playing right and will provide depth once Craig returns.

Considering Beltran was also fielding offers from the Indians and Blue Jays, this is a nice short-term risk for a St. Louis team that badly needed a bat with the departure of Pujols. Again, Beltran isn’t going to make anyone forget about the former St. Louis superstar, but at least he fills a void in the middle of the lineup. The biggest concern is whether or not he, Matt Holiday, and Lance Berkman can stay healthy. If they can – and if Adam Wainwright can recover from Tommy John surgery – then there’s no reason to think the Cardinals won’t make another run at the postseason this year.

Losing Pujols dramatically alters the club’s lineup, but give general manager John Mozeliak credit for landing one of the top names on the free agent market this winter.

- Carlos Rogers is having a resurgence in San Francisco? People left this guy for dead coming out of Washington and all he’s done this year is be the Niners’ best cornerback. He clinched the Niners’ win over the Giants in my eyes. San Francisco had just taken a 20-13 lead early in the fourth quarter when he picked off Eli Manning (his second of the day) deep in Niner territory. A couple plays later Kendall Hunter raced 17 yards for a touchdown in order to give San Fran a 27-13 lead in an eventual 27-20 victory. The Niners have been getting big plays like that out of their defense all season. They obviously proved today that they’re for real.

- Do you know who’s not for real? The Buffalo Bills. I have zero confidence that they’ll turn things around, party because of their defense and partly because of Ryan Fitzpatrick. Everyone knew Buffalo’s defense would be overmatched most Sundays and they have been. And everyone knew Fitzpatrick was only going to lead the Bills so far. He was brutal last week and even worse today. It’s struck midnight on this fairytale, which is a shame because I could watch Fred Jackson run all day. Dude is siiiick.

- The Cardinals parted with a starting cornerback in Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, a second-round pick in 2012, and $65 million in order secure Kevin Kolb as their starting quarterback this season. And John Skelton has two of their three wins on the season. Incredible.

- If you looked hard enough, you probably saw the Ravens’ loss to Seattle coming. Baltimore just swept Pittsburgh and had to travel cross-country to play a Seahawks team that is usually competitive at home. I figured the Ravens would suffer a letdown but the fact that they didn’t lead at any point today was a little jarring. With losses to Tennessee and Seattle as well as a near loss to Arizona at home, it would appear as though John Harbaugh’s team plays down to its competition.

- Speaking of the clock turning Midnight, it’s probably about time the Bengals come back to earth. Don’t get me wrong: they fought hard today against Pittsburgh and gave the Steelers a game until the end. But cornerback Leon Hall looks like he’s out for the season and I just don’t see Cincinnati being able to finish this race on top. That said, the Bengals certainly have something to build off of. Andy Dalton was poised today and A.J. Green is a freaking star in the making.

- Does anyone else feel like the Houston Texans are the NFL equivalent to the Clemson Tigers? You keep waiting for both teams to eventually crash and burn and yet, both keep winning. Granted, Clemson did lose to Georgia Tech a couple of weeks ago and almost dropped its second game to Wake Forest on Saturday but still, you get the point. I keep waiting for the Texans to eventually stumble and they keep racking up double-digit wins without Andre Johnson. Finally, it would seem, we’ll get to see Houston in the postseason.

- If you’re one of the people who is defending Mike Smith’s decision to go for it on fourth and one from his own 29-yard line in overtime, let me remind you that it’s simple risk vs. reward. If the Falcons pick up that first down, they still have at least 40 yards to go to get into field goal range to possibly win the game. If they don’t pick up the first down, well, we saw what happened when they didn’t. It was a stupid call by a head coach that was simply trying to get lucky. Smith and Mike Mularkey played not to lose the entire game and all of a sudden they decide that they’re going to take a big risk. It was just a stupid decision by a team without a true identity.

- Saint Peters of Joseph, Chris Johnson is alive.

- Huge win for the Saints today but there’s still something off with the boys from Naw’lins. They managed to squander a 10-point lead in under five minutes and if it hadn’t been for Mike Smith’s stupid decision to go for it in overtime, who knows if they would have walked out of the Georgia Dome with a victory. I have no doubt that they’ll win the NFC South because the Falcons still don’t know what they are offensively. But I’m not sure if the Saints can go into Green Bay in the playoffs and win a huge game on the road. Again, there’s just something off.

- You can always count on Michael Vick to mail it in when his team is seemingly out of playoff contention. Granted, his receivers didn’t do him any favors by dropping the ball multiple times in the first half and he was without DeSean Jackson, who was benched after missing a team meeting. But Vick looked completely turned off by the thought of playing football today. In a lot of ways, he is the exact same player as he was in Atlanta and Philadelphia is now paying for his shortcomings as a player. (UPDATE: Apparently Vick played with two broken ribs, which he sustained on the game’s second play. Thus, I take back what I said about him mailing it in. Any player that stays in a professional football game with two broken ribs has a bigger pair than I do. Well done, Mike.)

- Tim Tebow threw eight passes, completed just two of them and was the winning quarterback today in Kansas City. I don’t even care what his numbers are outside of the fact that he’s now 3-1 as the starter. I just want to sit back and watch guys like Phil Simms’ head explode that Tebow keeps winning. These talking heads want to debate about whether or not Tebow will ever be a good passer. That was never a debate. People have said from the start that his motion is too funky for him to be a good passer and yet these media members keep boasting about how he’ll fail. And yet…3-1 as a starter. I love it. Nobody can explain how the dinosaurs became extinct and how Tebow is winning. Tim Tebow: #winning.

- I realize the Niners are a very good football team but leave it to the Giants to beat the Patriots on the road and then erase a lot of the good vibes that have surrounded New York the past week by losing today. Freakin’ Giants.

- The NFC South is now a one-team race. The Saints are clearly the best team in the division, as the Falcons are still suffering an identity crisis and the Bucs are just plain bad. Tampa Bay’s front office thought it could get by without making any significant upgrades in the offseason and figured the team would just win 10 games again. Whoops. Turns out Josh Freeman is going to need more help, Bucs.

- This comment was made by one of our regular readers, Jester of the Apocalypse, earlier this week. He’s a huge Browns fan and was commenting on my Week 10 preview in which I wrote, “this is a game [vs. the Rams] the Browns should win.” Said Jester: You underestimate my Brownies knack for clutching defeat out of the jaws of victory . . . How absolutely, positively appropriate given the debacle that happened in Cleveland today.

- Even after their performance today I’m still not sold on the Cowboys. Outside of their miraculous victory against the Niners in Week 2, they still haven’t beaten a team of substance. I realize the Bills have a winning record but they’re on a downslide. Three weeks ago the ‘Boys were pummeled by a Philadelphia team that has clearly given up on the season and their other losses have coming against New England, Detroit and the Jets. That said, Dallas still has games against Washington, Miami, Arizona, Tampa Bay and Philadelphia and thus, the playoffs are still well within their reach. I’m just sayin’ I’m not sold. And this is coming from a guy who predicted them to win the NFC East this year.

- Wow Matthew Stafford was bad today. Granted, he was playing with a fractured index finger and 25-30mph wind gusts but still – wow. Two of his four interceptions were taken back for touchdowns by the Bears, who are now suddenly 6-3 on the season following two huge wins. If Chicago’s offense line can continue to play as well as it has, there’s no reason to believe Lovie Smith’s team won’t make it as a Wild Card.

- All I want for Thanksgiving is for Larry Fitzgerald to have a quarterback willing to throw him the ball every down. Because his seven-catch, 146-yard, two-touchdown performance today proved once again that he can completely take over a game if he gets enough opportunities.

- One week later, the Steelers finally get their big defensive stop to preserve a win.

- Two of the Seahawks’ three wins this year have come against the Giants and Ravens. And yet, they lose to the Browns, 6-3. The NFL is a funny league.

Here are a couple of predictions sure to be wrong this winter. (It’s not that I lack confidence in my prediction abilities. I just have complete confidence that they won’t be right. But hey, let’s have some freaking fun anyway, huh?)

Albert Pujols: St. Louis Cardinals
Do the Cardinals really have any choice but to work out a deal with Pujols? He is their offense, period. Matt Holliday, David Freese and Lance Berkman are all nice players but their games are enhanced with the mere presence of Pujols, who remains the best hitter in baseball. St. Louis is coming off a miraculous World Series run and just lost icon Tony La Russa to retirement. Turning around and losing Pujols to the Cubs or Dodgers is simply unacceptable. I also believe that St. Louis is the only place Pujols wants to play. But he’s already said that he’s not going to take a hometown discount, which he shouldn’t. That said, considering the Cardinals have allowed him to essentially run the clubhouse over the last decade, he might find that the grass isn’t greener on the other side if he decides to leave. This is a marriage that should stick because it works for all parties involved.

Prince Fielder: Chicago Cubs
Seeing as how I don’t buy into the idea of Pujols leaving the Cardinals, the Cubs make the most sense for Fielder if they’re willing to spend. Signing Fielder could be the start of Theo Epstein’s rebuilding project in Chicago. While the Cubs have a couple of bad contracts on their books, Epstein could build his team around Fielder just like he did with Big Papi in Boston. Management would have to approve a $150-plus million contract for this deal to happen, but it’s clear the Cubs want to win. You don’t acquire Theo Epstein and then tell him to sit on his hands. Could you imagine how many home runs Fielder could hit at Wrigley? I think he just hit one deep while typing this…

Jose Reyes: New York Mets
There are plenty of suitors for Reyes, who is young and productive. The Marlins, Giants, Nationals, Phillies, Pirates, Reds, Twins, Rays and Cardinals could all get involved in the Reyes sweepstakes but in the end, I think he’ll return to the Big Apple. He’s a fan favorite and seemed willing to re-sign with the Mets during the season last year but the situation never played itself out. Trading Carlos Beltran during the deadline last year made sense, as does re-signing Reyes to a new long-term deal.

Carlos Beltran: Boston Red Sox
A return to San Francisco certainly makes sense for Beltran. The Giants obviously need hitting and GM Brian Sabean might want to save face after he inexcusably gave away his top pitching prospect for a three-month rental that didn’t even help San Fran make the playoffs. That said, the Giants still have Aaron Rowand and Barry Zito’s awful contracts on their books and once they get done paying Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain, they’ll either be unable or unwilling to sign a big-name free agent. Boston, on the other hand, seems like a perfect place for a guy like Beltran to land. They’re always willing to spend and have a void in right field. Plus, they don’t shy away from risks and seeing as how Beltran is a 34-year-old injury concern, he qualifies as a risk. He’ll be their first free agent signing in the post-Epstein era.

C.J. Wilson: New York Yankees
I had the Rangers listed next to Wilson’s name but I have a feeling that the Yankees will do everything in their power to land the top pitcher on this year’s market. They need a top-of-the-rotation arm to complement CC Sabathia and while Wilson struggled mightily in the postseason this year, he still racked up 250 innings over 39 starts and was Texas’ best pitcher. The Yankees have deep pockets and after missing out on Cliff Lee last winter, they’ll pony up for another Ranger this time around.

Other Predictions:

Jimmy Rollins: Phillies
Aramis Ramirez: Orioles
Edwin Jackson: Nationals
Roy Oswalt: Rangers

My 2011 MLB season predictions were a little off this year.

I said the A’s would win the AL West and they actually finished 22 games out of first.

I said the White Sox would win the AL Central and they just traded their manager to another team, which sums up how well they did this year.

I said the Giants would repeat as National League champions and in doing so I cursed Buster Posey, Pablo Sandoval, Freddy Sanchez and the 900 other players they placed on the DL this season.

I had the Braves winning the NL Wild Card and we all know how that turned out. Yiiiiiikes.

While I did have the Phillies winning the NL East and the Yankees making the postseason as the AL Wild Card, those were gimmies. My only claim to fame was predicting the Brewers to win the NL Central, although when you have the Red Sox winning the World Series and they don’t even make the postseason you have no right to brag about anything.

So if you’re offended by my postseason predictions below, don’t be. Chances are I’ll be wrong anyway.

ALDS: Yankees over Tigers.
I don’t trust the Yankees’ pitching but I trust it more than I trust Doug Fister. Justin Verlander was the best pitcher in the American League this season but he’s had a knack for coming up short on the road throughout the years. Knowing the Yankees they’ll be down in every game of this series and figure out some way to advance. Derek Jeter will be 16-for-18 with 11 doubles and one game-winning home run or something ridiculous.

NLDS: Phillies over Cardinals.
The Phillies did the Cardinals a favor by beating Atlanta but if I were them, I would have wanted the downtrodden Braves to advance. That team would have just been happy to reach the postseason after a miserable September. Nevertheless, the Phillies’ pitching will dominate the hot-and-cold St. Louis lineup and the Cardinals’ pitching will fail them in Philadelphia. They’ve got Edwin Jackson slated to start Game 2 in that bandbox the Phillies’ call a stadium, which should work out well considering he’s a fly ball pitcher. (Read: sarcasm.)

ALDS: Rangers over Rays
I love the Rays and I would rather see a small market team like them reach the postseason in dramatic fashion than an underachieving Boston club. But Texas’ starting rotation is deep and was the first AL team since 1977 to have five pitchers with 13 or more victories. That’s an amazing stat when you consider Cliff Lee is no longer a part of the rotation. On the other side, the Rays will throw two rookies (Jeremy Hellickson and Michael Moore) and a guy in David Price who always seems to come up short in big games. I don’t like this matchup for the feel-good Rays, although Joe Maddon deserves to be the AL Manager of the Year with the work he did in Tampa this season. The guy has done great things despite being handcuffed by a cheap front office.

NLDS: Diamondbacks over Brewers
I get the impression that everyone believes the D-Backs are just happy to be here. But let me tell you something: This team does all the little things right. They pitch well, they steal bases, they play good defense and they get just enough offense to win ballgames. The Brewers have more overall talent but I like the NL West to reach the NLCS again this year.

ALCS: Rangers over Yankees
Again, I just don’t trust New York’s rotation. The Yankees relied on Sabathia and a three-man rotation en route to their last World Series title in 2009 but CC is running out of gas this time around. I know Ivan Nova and Freddy Garcia have good numbers but toss in A.J. Burnett and this rotation seems awfully combustible to me. Without Lee, I thought Texas wouldn’t even make the playoffs. But I’ve seen the error of my ways and like the Rangers to repeat in the American League.

NLCS: Phillies over Diamondbacks
While I do like Arizona’s chances of advancing past the first round I don’t think we’ll see a repeat of last season when Philadelphia’s bats fall silent in the NLCS. The Diamondbacks’ pitching is good but the Giants’ arms were special last October. Plus, I don’t see how the Phils don’t make the World Series with the rotation they have. It’s just too good. Bonus for Roy Halladay and Cliff Lee: No Cody Ross this year.

World Series: Phillies over Rangers
Yeah, I’m picking the favorite: what of it? Pitching, pitching, pitching…both of these teams have the starting rotation s to reach the Fall Classic and in the end, I see Texas coming up short again. I really like what the Phillies did at the trade deadline in acquiring Hunter Pence. To think Giants’ GM Brian Sabean gave away one of the best pitching prospects in baseball for a 34-year-old rental in Carlos Beltran when he maybe could have had a 28-year-old Pence for much less is just absurd. (Not to mention a 28-year-old Pence who is under team control.) Phils in six.

When Buster Posey was lost for the season following a collision at home plate with Marlins’ outfielder Scott Cousins back in May, one could have pointed to that moment as a low point in the San Francisco Giants’ 2011 season. But oh how things have gotten much worse.

On Monday night, the Cubs’ Randy Wells threw his first career shutout while limiting San Fran’s hopeless offense to just two hits in a 7-0 victory. (For those wondering, yes, that’s 5.00-plus ERA Randy Wells I’m referring to.) The losing pitcher for the Giants was none other than ace Tim Lincecum, who received zero run support for the 10th time in his last 28 starts.

The economy has looked more efficient in the past two weeks than the Giants’ offense has, which is frustrating when you consider how GM Brian Sabean gave away the organization’s best prospect to acquire Carlos Beltran from the Mets. Beltran was supposed to provide the team with just enough offense to get them to the postseason where their pitching could (hopefully) dominate like it did in 2010. Instead, Beltran has been sucked into the same black hole as the rest of the Giants’ hitters (save for Pablo Sandoval) and once again Sabean has been had in a trade (which is nothing new).

Of course, as infuriating as Sabean can be in his decision-making at times (Miguel Tejada or Orlando Cabrera anyone?), it’s not his fault that seemingly every night the Giants send a new player to the infirmary. Posey and second baseman Freddy Sanchez (one of Sabean’s better trade acquisitions) are out for the season while Beltran, Sandoval, Brian Wilson, Sergio Romo, Jonathan Sanchez, Barry Zito, Mark DeRosa, Cody Ross, Andres Torres, Pat Burrell, and Nate Schierholtz are either on the disabled list now or have at least spent some time on it this season. It appears as though the baseball gods have returned to wreak havoc on the Giants following their magical run in 2010.

Now if you’re among the many people who felt that last year’s World Series title was a fluke, then you’re certainty entitled to your opinion. I think your opinion is pure horse dung, but you’re entitled to your opinion nonetheless.

No, I don’t think last season was a fluke. I think the Giants got hot at the right time and their outstanding pitching staff did what it had done for much of the season: Stifle its opponents. I think it’s hard to repeat in baseball and history supports that claim. I think the Giants were fortunate not to suffer too many costly injuries and that the Padres choked. I think the insertion of Buster Posey into that lineup last year lifted this team to new heights. I think it was the Giants year, plain and simple.

But now that below average offense is even worse and has decided to eat the Giants’ spectacular pitching staff, taking one bite each night. Not one of the Giants’ top four starters (Lincecum, Matt Cain, Madison Bumgarner and Ryan Vogelsong) have an ERA over 3.60 and three of them (Lincecum, Cain and Vogelsong) don’t have an ERA north of 2.90. But because the offense is a complete and utter disaster, the Giants now sit five games back of the red-hot Diamondbacks in the NL West.

The ironic thing is that the Giants were exactly five games back of San Diego at this time last year and they wound up winning the World Series. But that was last year. The Padres were already in the midst of a five-game losing streak and quite frankly, this is a different Giants team than it was a year ago. They had confidence, swagger and cohesion last season, which are three things they haven’t had in over a month now. While another September miracle is certainly within their reach, this team seemingly doesn’t have the same fight in it as it did in 2010.

There’s no magical answer here: Either guys like Beltran, Torres, Ross, Aubrey Huff and Brandon Belt help Sandoval and the pitching staff or the Giants won’t be defending their World Series title for much longer. That’s it – that’s as simple as it’s going to get. Forget lineup changes or the idea that a minor league player (ah, Gary Brown) is going to save this team…they just have to play better baseball over this next month.

It’s do or die time for the defending champs.

In Monday’s Quick-Hits, I discuss the two players that cost the Rockies their ace, Randy Moss’s decision to retire, yet another perplexing decision by Giants general manager Brian Sabean, and Braylon Edwards’ shrinking market.

- If Rockie fans are upset with the Ubaldo Jimenez trade, they might as well direct their anger at the club’s flubbed selections in the 2006 and 2007 MLB drafts. Colorado selected Greg Reynolds with the second overall pick in the ’06 and Casey Weathers with the eighth overall pick in ’07. Neither right-hander has developed and while there’s plenty of hope for LHP Tyler Matzek, he’s not projected to help the big league club until 2013. That’s why when GM Dan O’Dowd received an offer from the Indians of Alex White and Joe Gardner in exchange for Jimenez, the deal was too good to pass up. The Rockies aren’t rebuilding their farm system: they’re restocking. Granted, Jimenez may right the ship while White and Gardner fail in Colorado, which would obviously make O’Dowd look like a fool. But at the end of the day, this is a deal O’Dowd felt he had to make after blowing the first rounds in ’06 and ’07. He’s essentially trying to make up for past mistakes.

- I’ve said it once and I’ll say it again: Randy Moss is now the posterchild for what not to do when you’re seeking a new contract in the NFL. Early last season, Moss whined about how the Patriots hadn’t discussed giving him a new contract. When New England told him to be patient, he pouted even more and became a distraction. Worst of all, he stopped playing hard, which is always a fast ticket out of New England with Bill Belichick running things. So he winds up in Minnesota, where he’s a distraction there, too. Finally he lands in Tennessee, where the coaching staff apparently realized that he was done as an NFL-caliber receiver. And now? Instead of continuing his career as a role player, he has decided to retire. Moss has been one hell of a player. He ranks eighth in career receptions, fifth in receiving yards and second only to Jerry Rice in touchdowns. But there will be a debate about whether or not he’s voted into the Hall of Fame after he quit on the Raiders and got himself traded out of New England and Minnesota. It’s amazing what kind of numbers Moss could have put up if had possessed Rice’s attitude.

- SF Giants GM Brian Sabean has some explaining to do after the Phillies and Braves landed younger outfielders under team control (Hunter Pence and Michael Bourn, respectively) without giving up their top prospects, while he traded for a 34-year-old free agent-to-be and had to give up his best farm arm. Oh, and Orlando Cabrera for Thomas Neal? Does Sabean have to overpay for every veteran talent that he wants? It’s like if he walks into an electronic store, sees a TV he likes and then asks the salesman if he could purchase said TV for triple the cost. Meanwhile, competing general managers walk into the same store and purchase newer models with comparable features for three-fourths of the price. I just don’t get Sabean’s philosophy when it comes to trades but then again, he has a World Series ring and I don’t so maybe I should shut my mouth. (Of course, when he overpays to keep Beltran this winter, I’ll be sure to open it again.)

- It took a while, but teams are finally starting to stay away with Braylon Edwards. At 6’3” and 214 pounds, he certainly looks the part of a No. 1 receiver. But his inconsistent hands coupled with the fact that football isn’t real high on his priorities list makes teams stay away. He’s on the verge of signing a one-year deal with the Cardinals because the receiver market is essentially dried up. Considering he’s only 28 and once caught 80 passes for 1,289 yards and scored 16 touchdowns in one season, he shouldn’t be accepting one-year deals. But teams aren’t stupid and know he’s a huge risk.