NFL Divisional Round Free Picks

Saints vs. Seahawks, 4:35PM ET
The forecast for Saturday’s Divisional round game in Seattle is calling for a 70-perent chance of rain throughout and high winds ranging between 28 and 30 miles per hour. Considering Seattle already has the toughest defense in the NFL and has struggled offensively in recent weeks, the under seemingly holds more value than the side in this matchup. The Saints also went with a power run approach last Saturday in Philadelphia and may have to employ a similar tactic if they can’t stretch the ball vertically. The Seahawks also did a great job of limiting New Orleans’ screen and short area game in the first matchup, so offense could be at a premium for the Saints this weekend. The under is 5-0 in the Saints’ last five road games, 7-1 in their last eight games overall and 5-0 in the Seahawks’ last five games.
FREE PICK: UNDER 44

Colts vs. Patriots, 8:15PM ET
Andrew Luck and the Colts staged one of the greatest comebacks in NFL playoff history last week when they knocked off the Chiefs, 45-44. But they also received some help along the way. Kansas City lost six starters throughout the game, including running back Jamaal Charles. Bob Sutton also failed to adjust to T.Y. Hilton’s ability to run free in his secondary in the second half and the Colts turned the ball over a whopping four times. Too many things went right for Indianapolis to bank on more fireworks Saturday night in Foxboro. (I’ll save everyone the “Luck” puns.) This is usually the time of year when Bill Belichick and Tom Brady make their money and Belichick won’t make the same mistakes that Sutton and Andy Reid did a week ago.
FREE PICK: PATRIOTS -7

49ers vs. Panthers, 1:05PM ET
This truly is a coin flip of a matchup. The Panthers beat the 49ers 10-9 in San Francisco back in November of this year but the Niners were without Michael Crabtree and Aldon Smith, and only had Vernon Davis for the first half before he injured himself. Colin Kaepernick has also been a different quarterback with Crabtree back in the starting lineup and the Niners are one of the hottest teams in the league. While Carolina plays outstanding defense at home, this will be Cam Newton’s first playoff game and his inexperience could shine through. With this game expected to be tight throughout, look for the Niners to hold onto victory in the end.
FREE PICK: 49ERS PICK’EM

Chargers vs. Broncos, 4:40PM ET
The Broncos were held under 30 points only three times this season and the Chargers were able to do it twice. In their current five-game winning streak, San Diego has rushed at least 36 times per contest and gained over 143 yards in every game. Running the ball and stealing time of possessions away from Peyton Manning will be the key to their success but whether or not they can do it will be another story. Manning realizes that his window to win another Super Bowl is slamming shut and despite his issues in his first playoff games, the cold weather or Denver’s defense, I don’t think Manning will be outdone this weekend by a scrappy San Diego team. It’s too tempting to take the 10 points with the Chargers after they were able to dismantle an underrated Cincinnati team a week ago but I’m going to do it anyway. I think this is Manning’s year to at least get back to the Super Bowl and I see a rout in the final game of Divisional week.
FREE PICK: BRONCOS -10

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NFL Wild Card Weekend Free Picks

Chiefs vs. Colts, 4:35PM ET
The Colts hammered the Chiefs 23-7 in Indianapolis in Week 16 but expect a different outcome today. Kansas City wasn’t prepared for the hurry up that Pep Hamilton threw at Bob Sutton’s defense but with more time to prepare, the Chiefs should adjust. Injuries could impact this game from Kansas City’s side of things, as Tamba Hali is questionable and Eric Fisher has been ruled out for the contest. But Fisher the Chiefs expect Hali to play and Fisher wasn’t performing well before suffering the injury so his loss shouldn’t play a significant role in today’s outcome. The Colts aren’t a very good first half team but they’ve done well playing from behind with Andrew Luck under center. Unfortunately that plays into Kansas City’s hands. Look for the Chiefs to build a lead and then protect it with a combination of Jamaal Charles and their pass rush.
FREE PICK: Chiefs -2.5

Saints vs. Eagles, 8:10PM ET
The Eagles have only beaten one playoff team this year and that came in Week 10 against an Aaron Rodgers-less Packers squad. But you’re naïve if you believe that Philly’s success this year is somehow marginalized by its schedule. Look at the NFL this year – half the league is garbage, which contributed to the Eagles’ “soft schedule.” Regardless, the Saints are a completely different team on the road than it is playing on the fast track of the Superdome. Drew Brees can talk about the Saints’ road record since 2009 all he wants but the fact remains that he’s a less accurate quarterback, Sean Payton is a more conservative play-caller and Rob Ryan’s defense isn’t as potent. Look for the red-hot Eagles to advance to the next round with a victory.
FREE PICK: Eagles -3

Chargers vs. Bengals, 1:05PM ET
The side is difficult to handicap for this matchup because nobody knows which Andy Dalton will show up. He’s as likely to throw for four touchdowns and 350 yards as he is to turn the ball over four times and keep his opponent in the game nearly single-handedly. Thus, the true value of this matchup may be in the total. The over is 4-0-1 in the last five meetings between these two teams in Cincinnati and 7-2-2 in the last 11 meetings overall. The over is also 4-0 in the Bengals’ last four games overall, 5-0 in their last five home games and 4-1 in their last five games versus AFC opponents.
FREE PICK: OVER 45.5

49ers vs. Packers, 4:40PM ET
Everything about this matchup screams 49ers, at least on paper. They have the significantly better defense, they’re built to win on the road thanks to their running game, and they’ve owned the Packers in the recent past. But this Green Bay team is eirly similar to the one that won the Super Bowl in 2010. That year, the Packers suffered key injuries throughout the season and barely made the postseason before riding a red-hot Aaron Rodgers to the title game versus Pittsburgh. Rodgers looked rusty last week versus the Bears but his second-half magic makes it hard to bet against him at home tomorrow night. If this game turns into a shootout, I like Rodgers over Colin Kaepernick, who has gotten a free pass for his inconsistent play this season after leading the Niners to the Super Bowl last season and playing with Michael Crabtree for most of this season.
FREE PICK: PACKERS +3

NFL Week 11 Free Picks

Falcons vs. Bucs, 1:00PM ET
Can things get any worse for the Falcons this season? They lose Julio Jones to a season-ending foot injury, Roddy White hasn’t been fully healthy since the start of the preseason and the defense has been forced to start undrafted rookies at multiple linebacker spots. Toss in a horrible offensive line, a weak pass rush and a frazzled quarterback and you’ve got the makings of a 2-7 season for a team that was supposed to contend for a Super Bowl. The Falcons are 1-6 against the spread in their last seven games overall, 0-4 ATS in their last four road games and 1-4 ATS in their last five division games. Even when they’re good they’ve struggled in Tampa Bay.
FREE PICK: BUCCANEERS -1

Lions vs. Steelers, 1:00PM ET
The Steelers are a shell of their former selves on defense. They can still generate a decent pass rush but they’ve been bad in coverage and even worse against the run (which had been a strength under Dick LeBeau). On the other side, the Lions remain explosive on offense and their defense is dangerous because of their stout pass rush, but they’re far from being a lockdown unit. Even on a soggy field in Pittsburgh, this game has the makings of a shootout. The over is 4-0 in the last four meetings between these two teams and 41-20-2 in the Lions’ last 63 road games.
FREE PICK: OVER 45.5

49ers vs. Saints, 4:25PM ET
The Saints have won and covered in 14 straight home games with Sean Payton on the sidelines. That’s an incredible feat, although it’s clear to anyone that pays attention that the Saints are a different team at home than away from the fast carpet of the Superdome. The Niners, meanwhile, are coming off their worst offensive performance of the season when they were held to just 151 yards of total offense. They’ve beaten up on teams like the Rams, Texans, Cardinals, Titans and Jaguars over the past month and a half, but faced with a stiff challenge in the Panthers, they couldn’t muster double-digit points. That kind of effort won’t cut it Sunday against a Saints team that has scored at least 31 points in all four of their last four home games.
FREE PICK: SAINTS -3.5

Chiefs vs. Broncos, 8:30PM ET
The Chiefs can’t win in a shootout – that’s not who they are. Thus, their defense will be put to the test tonight against the most explosive offense in the NFL. The X-factor in this game is Peyton Manning’s ankles. If he’s more banged up than he and the Broncos are letting on, then Kansas City’s defense will make this game. Denver hasn’t done a good enough job the past few weeks of protecting Manning and he’s paying the price. Look for the Chiefs to take a page out of the Colts’ playbook and play press coverage on the outside. Disrupting Manning’s timing with his receivers is the only way you’re going to beat him, and that’s easier said than done. That said, the Chiefs’ have the corners and pass rush to keep Manning in check and keep this game close throughout.
FREE PICK: CHIEFS +7.5

NFL Week 8 Free Picks

Bills vs. Saints, 1:00PM ET
Even with Jimmy Graham likely to miss the game with a foot injury, the Saints offense should score plenty against a Buffalo defense that allows 25.4 points per game. Conversely, the Bills haven’t had issues reaching pay dirt themselves, as they’re the only team in the NFL that has scored at least 20 points per contest. The over is 5-1 in Buffalo’s last six games overall and 6-0 in New Orleans’ last six games following a bye week.
FREE PICK: Over 48

49ers vs. Jaguars, 1:00PM ET
The Jaguars have been a disaster this season and the Niners are rounding into the same form that made them NFC title champs a season ago. That said, San Francisco hasn’t been home in two weeks after its players traveled to Tennessee last Sunday and then hopped a flight directly after that to head to London for today’s game. With all of that traveling, plus an inflated spread due to Jacksonville’s overall ineffectiveness, the Jags should cover today over seas. The Niners are 2-5 against the spread in their last seven games versus a team with a losing record and are due to have a letdown.
FREE PICK: Jaguars +17

Redskins vs. Broncos, 4:25PM ET
The over has cashed every week in Denver games and there’s no reason to believe the combined score won’t sail over again with Washington in town today. Over the past three weeks RGIII has looked more like the dynamic player he was a year ago as he’s beginning to have more success as a runner. He’s still highly inaccurate but the Redskins racked up 45 points last Sunday on the Bears and should have success today versus a Broncos defense that has struggled. The over is 4-1 in the last five meetings between these two teams and while the total is set high for this contest, both teams should reach the 30s.
FREE PICK: Over 57.5

Falcons vs. Cardinals, 4:25PM ET
Atlanta is highly banged up but will get running back Steven Jackson back this week after he missed over a month with a hamstring injury. The Falcons proved a week ago versus Tampa Bay that they can still move the ball effectively thanks to Matt Ryan’s ability to find weaknesses in the defense and get the ball out of his hand quickly. On the flip side, Bruce Arians is having a difficult time with his offense. The line has had massive issues protecting quarterback Carson Palmer, who is turning the ball over on a game-by-game basis. Atlanta’s pass rush has been non-exsistent this year but it should drum up enough pressure to keep Arizona’s offense at bay for another week. The Cardinals are just 2-10-1 against the spread in their last 13 games in October while the Falcons are 5-1 ATS in their last six games in Week 8.
FREE PICK: Falcons +1

NFL News & Notes: Tannehill, Kolb & Cook

Tannehill blossoming but…
With the signings of free agents Mike Wallace, Dannell Ellerbe, Phillip Wheeler, Tyson Clabo, Brent Grimes and Brandon Gibson, the Dolphins have had an eventful offseason. But the biggest news has been the development of second-year quarterback Ryan Tannehill, who reportedly has been sharp in practices and who looks ‘more instinctive and less mechanical.’ With the Bills and Jets devoid of overall talent and the Patriots in the midst of a tumultuous offseason (that’s putting it mildly), some believe the Dolphins could be a sleeper in the AFC East. That said, the reports on left tackle Jonathan Martin have been less than favorable. Martin has been schooled by up-and-comer Olivier Vernon in practice and continues to be suspect in pass protection. And while Martin has looked good as a run-blocker, there are questions about whether Clabo can make the transition from a standard to a zone-blocking scheme. Even if Tannehill takes a significant step in his development and is surrounded by more talent (Lamar Miller continues to showcase his skills in camp), it won’t matter if the offensive line struggles. The play of Miami’s offensive tackles will be a topic of discussion throughout preseason and heading into Week 1.

Kolb has already been sacked.
The preseason hasn’t even started and already Kevin Kolb is on his backside. Bills coach Doug Marrone said the quarterback “tweaked” his knee and is considered day to day after tripping on a wet mat Saturday morning. The news comes on the heels of reports that Kolb has been outplayed in practice by rookie E.J. Manuel, who might wind up starting Week 1 despite his rawness at the position. Manuel fits Marrone’s up-tempo, run-first approach, so the first-year quarterback could grow on the job without having the pressure or expectations of carrying the offense with his arm. But it’s an indictment against Kolb that he can’t even stay on his own two feet while competing for a starting job in training camp. Granted, he was just keeping the seat warm until Manuel was ready to start, but if Kolb can’t win the starting job in Buffalo then what head coach or GM in his right mind will ever view Kolb as a starter again? It’s amazing to think he was once handpicked by Andy Reid to be the successor to Donovan McNabb.

49ers add Collie and Hawkins: What does it say about Jenkins?
The recent additions of Austin Collie and Lavelle Hawkins speak volumes about the development or lack thereof of 49ers’ 2012 first-round pick A.J. Jenkins. The former Illinois standout reported to camp out of shape last year, was eased into the offense by head coach John Harbaugh and OC Greg Roman, and then logged just 47 snaps in the regular season as a rookie. He’s reportedly off to a slow start again this summer and is now dealing with a hamstring strain. And while the additions of Collie and Hawkins could be precautionary with Michael Crabtree (Achilles’ tear) out and Kyle Williams returning from ACL surgery, it’s worth noting that Jenkins has failed to distinguish himself with the position opposite Anquan Boldin up for grabs.

It took Pro Bowlers Roddy White and Vincent Jackson three years to make an impact in the NFL, so the Niners will remain patient with Jenkins. But with Crabtree down, the team has to be frustrated that it hasn’t received more from its first-round investment up to this point.

Cook could be ready for a breakout campaign.
Titans fans are well aware of tight end Jared Cook’s upside and potential. For years they had to endure preseason chatter about how Cook was going to develop into a major contributor in Tennessee’s passing game, only to be disappointed by his lack of production. Whether it was poor playcalling or game planning, quarterback struggles, or Cook’s own bouts with inconsistency, the former South Carolina tight end has failed to deliver.

But after signing a lucrative free agent deal this offseason, Cook has turned heads in Rams camp. He and Sam Bradford have built a solid rapport and Cook has demonstrated his immense versatility. On one play he’s lining up in-line and the next he’s in the slot or out wide and in motion. He’s allowed the Rams to practice formations that they couldn’t use a year ago because they simply didn’t have a weapon as skilled as Cook. Whether it’s against a veteran defensive back or rookie safety TJ McDonald, Cook continues to beat defenders with his speed, soft hands, and big catch radius. The success of St. Louis’ offense will depend on Brian Schottenherim’s creativity, as well as Bradford’s ability to work through his progressions quickly and get the ball out of his hands on time and accurately. But with weapons like Cook, Tavon Austin and Chris Givens, the Rams have finally equipped Bradford with the tools necessarily to succeed.

An offensive weapon is developing in Cleveland.
The reports out of Cleveland have been inconsistent on receiver Josh Gordon. While new GM Mike Lombardi says Gordon has had a “great attitude” this offseason, others have written about his immaturity and lackadaisical habits at practice. He’s also facing a three-game suspension at the start of the season and is now battling “patellar tendonitis.” With second-year quarterback Brandon Weeden also drawing mixed reviews from pundits, the one consistent positive for Cleveland has been tight end Jordan Cameron. The Cleveland Plain Dealer reports that Cameron has been targeted “early and often” during training camp, and he might emerge as Weeden’s security blanket this season. While the Browns’ success this season will depend on Ray Horton’s underrated defense and the development of Weeden, it’s good to hear that Cameron is turning heads. Cleveland has long searched for offensive weapons.

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