For the second time in four years the New York Giants and New England Patriots will meet in the Super Bowl after the two teams won their respective conferences on Sunday. Here are some quick-hit reactions from both games.

Patriots 23, Ravens 20

- I feel for Billy Cundiff, I really do. He’s a professional kicker and professional kickers need to make 32-yard field goals when the snap and hold are perfect. It doesn’t matter what the stakes were or the fact that the Ravens blew opportunities during the game that could have saved him the horror of costing his team a chance to play in the Super Bowl. He’s a kicker and he should have made the kick, period. That said, he’s also a human being and there’s nothing anyone could say to make him feel worse than he already does. It sucks for him and it sucks for his teammates, who killed themselves for 18 weeks just to see their Super Bowl hopes dashed in a blink of an eye. Eighteen weeks have hard work flushed away on one bad kick…

- …of course, had Lee Evans bothered to hang onto the ball two plays before, Cundiff would have been spared all of this misery. Cundiff will absorb most of the fans’ barbs this week but the fact of the matter is that his kick would have only tied the game. Evans had a chance to potentially win the game for the Ravens had he hung onto a beautifully thrown pass by Joe Flacco on a second-and-1 from the New England 14. The damn thing was in his hands as he was about to stick his second foot into the ground and he had it knocked away by safety Sterling Moore. If Evans hangs onto the ball we’re talking about a Ravens-Giants rematch instead of Patriots-Giants II.

- Some Baltimore fans are complaining that John Harbaugh and Cam Cameron mismanaged the time when the Ravens drove the ball down to the New England 14-yard-line with less than two minutes remaining in the game. I get that. The Ravens had a second-and-1 from the 14, and a third-and-one from the 14. They could have handed the ball to Rice on either down and have him pick up the first, which would have given the Ravens a fresh set downs with two timeouts remaining. But just last week Cameron watched as Rice was stuffed at the goal line versus Houston so maybe he didn’t want to re-live the moment by playing into New England’s hands. The Patriots’ front seven did a great job bottling up Rice all day so ask yourself this: Was it the play calls or the execution that was the problem? Again, if Evans hangs onto the ball on second down then the Ravens are probably heading to Indianapolis. We fans are great at second guessing coordinators but in this case, Cameron gave his team a chance to win and the players just failed to execute.

- The numbers don’t paint a very pretty picture for the New England defense this season but the fact remains that Bill Belichick’s D is playing its best football over the past few weeks. Vince Wilfork was a freaking beast today and allowed Rice very little running room, while the rest of his front seven ‘mates also played extremely well. The secondary still has leaks but this isn’t the same defense that struggled so mightily earlier in the season.

- Have the Patriots ever won an AFC championship game when Tom Brady didn’t play well? If they have, I certainly don’t remember when. While everyone was questioning Flacco’s confidence heading into today, it was Brady who was the lackluster quarterback. Following Brandon Spike’s interception of Flacco mid-way through the fourth quarter, Brady gave the Ravens new life on the very next play by throwing into triple-coverage and getting picked off himself. Granted, the two interceptions he threw were both incredible plays but Baltimore defenders but Brady was off the entire game. In some respects, I don’t even know how the Patriots won. They’re heading back to the Super Bowl so that’s all that matters in the end, but this was not a very compelling performance by New England. That said, even though the Ravens continue to be a thorn in Brady’s side, his fourth-down touchdown leap proved to be the game-winning score for the Pats. And that was one hell of a gusty leap.

- Apparently Rob Gronkowski left Gillette Stadium in a walking boot, although he says his left ankle is “fine.” Good thing the media now has two weeks to talk about his injury every hour like they did with Pittsburgh offensive lineman Maurkice Pouncey leading up to last year’s Super Bowl. Because that wasn’t nauseating or anything.

Giants 20, 49ers 17

- Kyle Williams wasn’t even supposed to be returning punts for the 49ers: that job belonged to Ted Ginn Jr., but he was inactive today with a knee injury. So it’s only fitting that Williams muffed two punts that indirectly propelled the Giants to their second Super Bowl appearance in four years. Just like Billy Cundiff, I feel for Williams. It’s not like the kid woke up this morning and said, “Yeah, this is a good day to cost my team an opportunity to play in the Super Bowl.” It was just a really bad day for the former Arizona State product. Granted, the conditions weren’t ideal for any ball carrier but Williams shouldn’t have been close to the bouncing ball that hit his knee and his fumble that set up Lawrence Tynes’ game-winning field goal was caused in part because he was carrying the ball away from his body. Making matters worse, he didn’t record a single catch so it might be a long offseason for Williams, who nearly lost a fumble on a poor pitch earlier in the game, too.

- Just like Cundiff, Williams will draw most of the ire from fans and the media this week. But the blame cannot be laid at his feet alone. Did Williams put the Niners in bad position with his two muffed punts? No question. His turnovers led to 10 New York points, which proved to be the difference in the game. You can’t ignore that. But let me throw out some numbers: 1-of-13. That was San Francisco’s third-down efficiency today. They converted one third down on 13 attempts, which is absolutely horrendous. Here are some more numbers: 12-of-26. Alex Smith completed just 12 passes and only three of which came on the 49ers’ final two drives when they had an opportunity to win the game. Williams cost his team dearly but rarely does a football game come down to one or two plays.

- There were many factors that played into the outcome of this game but to me, the play of the quarterbacks was the difference. Alex Smith made two great throws to Vernon Davis that resulted in 14 points, but he was at the root of San Francisco’s ineptitude on offense. He often looked for the rush instead of anticipating it, his pocket presence was non-existent on some drives, and he often held onto the ball too long. When the 49ers had an opportunity at the end of the fourth quarter to put a drive together and potentially win the game with a field goal, Smith threw three straight incomplete passes and only 14 seconds came off the clock. He looked like a quarterback who couldn’t wait to get off the field on the 49ers’ lone possession in overtime, too. Take away Davis’ 112 receiving yards and the Niners did nothing on the outsides today. Don’t get me wrong, without Alex Smith’s play in the fourth quarter lat week, the 49ers aren’t playing in the NFC title game. But it’ll be interesting to see if San Francisco wants to invest making him their franchise quarterback when he still has a lot of the same issues that have haunted him throughout his career.

- On the flip side, Eli Manning got his ass handed to him repeatedly by a very good San Francisco defense and he continued to make plays to give his team a chance to win in the end. This Giants team was severely banged up at the beginning of the year and everyone essentially wrote them off when they lost to the Redskins in Week 1. And when they lost to the Redskins again late in the season, nobody expected the G-Men to even make the playoffs. But just like Eli did today in ‘Frisco, the Giants just kept hanging in there and now they’re heading back to the Super Bowl. Were the Giants a work of art offensively today? No, but let’s give San Francisco’s defense their due. They weren’t going to allow Manning to come in and do whatever he wanted on their home turf, and they certainly didn’t. At the end of the game Eli looked like someone who had been run over by a sewage truck. Justin Smith used his body as a rag doll on several occasions and yet there was Manning, peeling himself off the turf play after play. Criticize this guy all you want for not having Tom Brady’s bravado or his brother’s passing records but don’t say he’s not a winner. Manning proved to a national audience today what he’s proven to Giants fans all year: That without him, the G-Men don’t even win nine games this season, nevertheless have a chance to win their second Super Bowl in four years.

- Victor Cruz caught 10 passes for 142 yards today, all of which came in the first half. That is not a misprint.

- Considering the Giants have beaten the Patriots the last two times these two teams have met, I would love to see the media have some balls and talk about whether or not New England can beat New York, instead of the other way around. The Patriots are already listed as 3.5-point favorites and you know the media is just chomping at the bit to talk about Brady and Belichick. But seriously, let’s see if the national media has any marbles and spends the next two weeks discussing whether or not the Pats can get the best of the Giants.

Last week’s predictions slipped my mind for whatever reason, but I totally would have taken the 49ers and the over, the Patriots and the over, the Texans and the under, and the Giants and the over.

No, no – I’m serious. Perfect weekend…

Ravens @ Patriots, 3:00PM ET
Tom Brady’s completion percentage in five career games against the Ravens is 55.9, which is his lowest against any team in the league. When Baltimore ransacked New England 33-14 in that 2009 Wildcard game, Brady threw three interceptions, was sacked three times and finished with a passer rating of 49.1. For whatever reason, the Ravens are a matchup problem for Brady and the Patriots, who I do think will win on Sunday. I just don’t think they’ll cover the seven points unless they draw Baltimore into a shootout, in which case the Ravens are in serious trouble. While Joe Flacco and Co. has struggled on the road this season, methinks this one will be tight throughout.
THE PICK: RAVENS +7

Giants @ 49ers, 6:30PM ET
Part of me is completely convinced that the Giants are going to win the Super Bowl. The other part of me believes that they’re starting to read their own press clippings and people are foolish to keep overlooking a solid team like the Niners. That’s why I’m not touching the side. Back in Week 10 when these two teams met, I fell in love with the under. But after a field goal fest in the first half, the two teams combined for 32 points in the final two quarters and the score went over the total of 47. But with bad weather expected to hit the Bay area, I’m back for more of that under goodness. I think this has all the makings of a defensive battle on a sloppy track, where both teams will have to rely on their running games to eek out a victory.
THE PICK: UNDER 42

Check back nest week for more odds as everyone gets ready for 2012 Super Bowl action as we gear up for the biggest sports day of the year.

Ravens @ Patriots, 3:00PM ET, Sunday
Call me old fashioned but I think this game will come down to the play of the quarterbacks. Joe Flacco usually doesn’t have to throw for many yards because Baltimore’s defense limits the production of the opposing offense. But what if Tom Brady and Co. is firing on all cylinders this Sunday? What if the Patriots do the unthinkable and draw the Ravens into a shootout? Can Flacco beat Brady in a wildfire?

If the Patriots were smart, they’d use the Chargers’ 34-14 Week 15 beat down of the Ravens as a blueprint to beat Baltimore. In that game, Philip Rivers got the ball out of his hand quickly, attacked Baltimore down field and thus, never allowed the Ravens’ fierce pass rush to get into a rhythm. If Baltimore, which led the league in sacks this season, can’t get to the quarterback then its defense can become ordinary. In their 12 wins this season, the Ravens sacked the quarterback 43 times. In their four losses, they got to the opposing signal caller just five times. Considering New England has one of the better offensive lines in the game, it’s not unfathomable that the Ravens will have trouble defensively this weekend.

Which leads me back to Flacco. Can he be the quarterback that threw for 300 yards and led the Ravens to that great fourth-quarter comeback in Pittsburgh this season? Or will he succumb to the pressure of trying to go toe-to-toe with Brady? Nobody will confuse New England’s defense with San Francisco’s but the Patriots did harass Tim Tebow last weekend. If they’re able to take away Ray Rice and Torrey Smith like Houston did last week, will Flacco step up?

Baltimore has often been a match up problem for New England. But the Patriots seem hell bent on getting back to the Super Bowl so it’s probably safe to say that the Ravens will get New England’s best effort this weekend.

Giants @ 49ers, 6:30PM ET, Sunday
With all due respect to the other contenders still left in the playoff field, the Giants are probably the most complete team remaining. The Patriots have the better offense and the 49ers have the better defense, but the Giants aren’t far off in either category. They also have a better quarterback in Eli Manning than the Ravens have in Joe Flacco, the latter of which has been highly inconsistent this season.

But the question is whether or not the Giants have started to read their own press clippings. As I’ve written before on this site, the G-Men are the perfect underdog. When their backs are pressed firmly against the wall and they believe that it’s them against the world, they beat teams like the Packers and Patriots (multiple times, in fact). When they’re well aware that they’re the favorite, they’re liable to lose to inferior opponents like Washington, Seattle or a Michael Vick-less Philadelphia team. The Giants are just weird that way.

That said, New York has very few weaknesses. They finished dead last in rushing during the regular season but the duo of Ahmad Bradshaw and Brandon Jacobs looks much more potent now that at any time this year. When he protects the football, Eli is tough to beat and he has a trio of wide receivers in Hakeem Nicks, Victor Cruz and Mario Manningham that can win individual matchups in coverage. If the defense has a weakness, it’s in the secondary but the pass rush is so good that it masks the holes in the backfield. Yes, the Giants are a complete team.

But let’s pay a little respect to the 49ers, who knocked off a team in the Saints that many people believed was unstoppable. Led by Justin Smith, Patrick Willis, NaVorro Bowman, Carlos Rogers and rookie Aldon Smith, the Niners don’t have many weaknesses defensively (if any). And while they don’t have as many weapons offensively as the Giants do, Frank Gore and Vernon Davis have proven that they can take over games this season.

The Niners also have home field advantage and have already beaten the Giants once this season (27-20 in Week 10). So again, if the Giants think they’re going to breeze in and out of San Francisco on its way to Indianapolis, they better pause to re-focus. They’ll have to earn what they get this weekend.

Ravens @ Patriots, 3:00PM ET, Sunday
The Patriots opened as a 9-point favorite when the odds were first released but the spread has dropped at all major offshore and Las Vegas sports books. Now New England is listed as a 7.5-point home favorite, while the over/under total is sitting between 49.5 and 50.5 after opening at 50.5.

The home team is 4-1-1 against the spread in the last six meetings between these two teams while the Ravens are just 1-3-2 against the number in their last six trips to New England. That said, the last time these two teams met in Foxboro, the Ravens raced out to a 24-0 first-quarter lead on their way to a 33-14 blowout in the 2009 Wildcard round.

Giants @ 49ers, 6:30PM ET, Sunday
This game opened as a pick’em at most sports books but there was an early flood of money posted on the 49ers, who are now 2.5-point favorites over the Giants. The over/under total is sitting between 41.5 and 42.5 after opening at 44.5, so clearly the consensus is that this will be a defensive battle throughout.

These two teams met in Week 10 of the regular season when the 49ers beat the Giants 27-20 as a 4-point home favorite. The favorite is 4-0 against the spread in the last five meetings between these two teams while the home squad is 5-2 against the number in the last seven overall meetings. But the Giants are 5-1 against the spread in their last six games against the 49ers and 7-0 against the number in their last seven playoff road games.

2012 NFL Conference Championship Odds:

AFC Championship Game
Baltimore Ravens +7.5 (50)
New England Patriots –7.5

NFC Championship Game
New York Giants +2.5 (42)
San Francisco 49ers –2.5

Check back nest week for more odds as everyone gets ready for 2012 Super Bowl action as we gear up for the biggest sports day of the year.

1. Will Flacco raise his game to match Brady’s?
One of the bigger mismatches this weekend lies within the quarterback matchup in the AFC Championship Game. While Tom Brady is coming off a six-touchdown, 363-yard passing performance against the Broncos, Joe Flacco put together a rather uninspiring performance versus the Texans last Sunday. In fact, Flacco has been rather inconsistent all season. He’s completing just 57.6-percent of his passes for an average of 6.66 yards per attempt, and has thrown 20 touchdown passes to 12 interceptions. He’s also fumbled nine times on the year and finished the regular season with a quarterback rating of just 80.9. Flacco took five sacks in that win over Houston and while New England doesn’t have the pass rush that the Texans do, the Pats did sack Tim Tebow five times last weekend. Their run defense is also capable of containing Ray Rice so if Flacco doesn’t elevate his play then the Ravens may once again fall short of their Super Bowl expectations. We know that Brady is going to elevate his game, especially with another Super Bowl within reach. But Baltimore needs to see more of the Flacco from the fourth quarter in that Week 9 victory over the Steelers and less of the lackluster signal caller from last week.

2. Can Smith build on his big fourth-quarter last week?
You have to give Jim Harabugh’s staff a ton of credit for how they attacked the Saints last week. Instead of being timid and conservative like the Falcons were against the Giants, they knew they had to open things up if they were going to pull off an upset (which they obviously did). That said, Alex Smith’s overall performance was a little misleading. While he did throw for 299 yards and three touchdowns, the Niners’ first four scoring drives went for just 54, four, six and three yards because of Saints turnovers. It wasn’t until late in the fourth quarter when Smith decided to channel his inner Steve Young and deliver a handful of excellent passes, most of which found the hands of tight end Vernon Davis. If the Niners are going to repeat that success, Smith will have to build upon his fourth quarter performance from last week. He proved this year that he can be more than just a “game manager” but if the Giants bottle up Frank Gore and force Smith to beat them through the air, can he deliver again?

3. Can the Giants get the best of the Niners’ stout defense?
Actually, they already have. Even though the outcome was a loss, the Giants racked up 395 yards of total offense against the 49ers in Week 10. It was the fourth-highest total any team has posted against San Francisco all season. The Giants, who finished dead last in rushing offense this season, also ran the ball effectively against the Niners that day. New York finished with 93 rushing yards (the fourth-highest total against San Francisco this season) and that came without Ahmad Bradshaw, who sat out with a foot injury. One of the many reasons the Giants have looked so dominant thus far this postseason is because their power running game has finally awoken. They bulldozed their way to 172 rushing yards versus Atlanta in the opening round and while they failed to crack the century mark against Green Bay last week, the Giants were able to put the Packers away in the fourth quarter with a couple of great cutback runs by Bradshaw and Brandon Jacobs. The 49ers don’t have many weaknesses defensively. They may have allowed 32 points last week against the Saints but anyone who watched that game knows that San Francisco’s defense played well until the fourth quarter. That said, there’s no doubt the Giants have the weapons offensively to take the Niners down. It’s just a matter of if Eli Manning can avoid turnovers and costly mistakes.

4. Can the Ravens pressure Brady from their interior?
This question could be flipped as well: Can the Patriots block the interior of Baltimore’s defensive line? One of the many things the Broncos failed to do last Saturday night (besides, you know, showing up) was generate pressure with the interior of their defensive line. The Patriots got into their up-tempo offense and before you knew it they were up 35-7 at halftime. Brady had way too much time to stand in the pocket and survey the field. But the Ravens bring more to the table defensively, specifically tackle Haloti Ngata. He’s someone that could definitely become a concern for Brady if his offensive line can’t get him blocked. Just like any elite quarterback, the key to beating Brady is to generate pressure with only your front four and commit more defenders to coverage. Obviously the Ravens still need to blitz from time to time, but teams that solely use blitzes as a way to create pressure will often get burned in the end by guys like Brady, Aaron Rodgers and Drew Brees. Considering the Jets beat the Patriots in the playoffs last season by constantly providing pressure, this Baltimore-New England game will likely be won or lost in the trenches.

5. How will injuries affect this weekend’s games?
Sorry for leaving this question open-ended but this is something that won’t be answered until after the games have been played. Gore suffered a right leg injury on the 49ers’ final drive last Saturday but says he’s fine. John Harbaugh says Ed Reed will be “all right” for the AFC Championship Game but the safety needed assistance getting off the field last Sunday after suffering an ankle injury late in the fourth quarter. Giants’ defensive tackle Chris Canty said he’s 100-percent after suffering a fourth-quarter knee injury but he was down for quite a while last Sunday in Green Bay. Victor Cruz also suffered a leg injury against the Packers after taking a helmet to the thigh. Nobody should expect these players to miss the conference championship games but all of these injuries could have a huge factor on this weekend’s matches. We’ll just have to wait and see whether or not any of these injuries will have an impact on the four teams’ Super Bowl chances.

The 49ers and Saints kicked off the Divisional round of the 2012 NFL Playoffs with a wild one in ‘Frisco. Here are some quick-hit reactions from the Niners’ 36-32 upset over the Saints.

- That was easily one of the wildest finishes I’ve seen in any game, nevertheless a postseason contest. Four touchdowns in the final four minutes? There’s nothing that beats the NFL playoffs. NOTHING I TELL YOU!

- Gregg Williams is an aggressive defensive play-caller. He has always been an aggressive defensive play-caller and will always be an aggressive defensive play-caller. He’s won a Super Bowl by being aggressive so by no means should he change his spots. That said, the Niners had 67 yards to cover with 40 seconds remaining in the game. Did Williams actually think that sending six defenders and leaving Vernon Davis in one-on-one coverage was the best play-call in that situation? Davis beat Malcolm Jenkins on the play and went 47 yards to the New Orleans’ 20-yard-line. Three plays later Alex Smith drilled a bullet to Davis for the eventual game-winning touchdown. Again, Gregg Williams needs to be aggressive or he’s not Gregg Williams. But you can still be aggressive and not leave the man who had torched you all game in one-on-one coverage while you rush over half your defense. That’s a play-call that may haunt him for the next eight months.

- Back in the day I used to write profiles for the top NFL draft prospects each year. In 2006 I absolutely fell in love with tight end Vernon Davis. I would tell everyone who would listen (which included about four people, including my own mother) that Davis was going to be a monster at the next level. He was the perfect prospect: Built like a tight end but with the speed and athleticism of a wide receiver. I used to clamor about how big of a mismatch he would be either on or off the line. Then the dude stunk for three years and those four people (including my own mother) would constantly mock me. “The perfect prospect huh? Guy looks pretty average.” Davis still hasn’t had the career I expected him to have back in ’06 but he reminded me today of why I was so high on him coming out of Maryland. The Saints couldn’t stop him, especially on the Niners’ game-wining drive. He beat a cornerback in Jenkins on that long completion that put San Francisco in scoring range and then he beat a safety in Roman Harper for the game-winning score. (A play in which Davis took an absolute shot from Harper and still hung on to the ball.) When he’s involved in the offense and playing with confidence, he’s such a weapon in the middle of the field. And now he owns the single-game playoff record for tight end yards, surpassing Kellen Winslow’s mark of 166 yards in that legendary performance against the Dolphins back in 1981.

- After his outstanding performance today (24-for-42, 299 yards, 3 TDs, 0 INTs), I can’t help but chuckle about all of the Alex Smith critics that have emerged over the years. “He’ll never lead a team to the playoffs!” “He’ll never win a playoff game if he’s lucky enough to get there!” “He’s not a Super Bowl-caliber quarterback!” “He isn’t contributing to his retirement fund!” Smith has been one of the most polarizing quarterbacks over the past five years and finally, after all of those different coordinators and coaches, lack of talent and confidence issues, he won his first postseason game by outperforming Drew Brees. It’s amazing when you think about it. He’ll still have plenty of doubters if he stinks up the joint next week in the NFC Championship Game, and he still has plenty of doubters now, I’m sure. But at least he’ll sleep well tonight. The guy deserves it after the show he put on today.

- Speaking of Smith, that 14-yard designed run he had was a freaking great play call. And the blocks that were executed on that play were outstanding as well. I thought that was going to be one sweet game-winning play-call but who knew that 15 more points were going to be scored?

- It’s amazing to watch Justin Smith play now compared to earlier in his career with Cincinnati. It’s like watching a completely different player. It’s not as if he was bad with the Bengals but now he’s a disruptive force and easily one of the best defensive linemen in the game. He and his ‘Frisco teammates did something that so many teams tried and failed to do this season: Bring the heat against Drew Brees. The Saints’ offense still wound up scoring a ton of points in the end but the scoreboard isn’t a true representation of how well Smith and Co. played today.

- Granted, they scored 32 points and Brees did attempt 63 passes so it’s not like Sean Payton was conservative with his offense. But the Saints don’t play with the same swagger or confidence on the road as they do at home, especially on defense. When they’re inside the Superdome, the Saints are unbeatable and unstoppable. The defense flies to the football, plays with physicality and aggression, and forces turnovers. Today, the New Orleans defense allowed 36 points and nearly 300 passing yards to a team that averaged just 183.1 yards through the air during the regular season. I said it all week: The Saints are just a different team on the road than they are at home.

- Of course, when you turn the ball over five times and spot your opponent a 17-point lead on the road, you’re not going to win most games. I don’t care how explosive the Saints’ offense is: They can’t win if they kill potential scoring drives with turnovers and sloppy play.

Every Tuesday I’ll take a look at the five biggest questions surrounding NFL teams for that week. With just one Sunday remaining in the 2011 regular season, this week I take a look at the “NFC East Championship Game,” as well as the other key matchups that could potentially affect the playoff picture.

1. Cowboys or Giants?
As I’ve often written in my weekly predictions for the NFL: I wouldn’t bet this game with your money. You just don’t know what you’re going to get out of either of these teams. The Giants have the capabilities to march into New England and beat the Patriots, but they might be the worst home team in the NFL. The Cowboys are good when nobody is paying attention to them but choke when the spotlight is on. Dallas could have, and maybe should have, won the first meeting between these two teams but the Giants pulled off one of their patent 2011 fourth-quarter comebacks. When Eli Manning protects the football the G-Men usually win. But get him in one of his deer-caught-in-the-headlights modes and New York will be watching the playoffs from home next week. On the other side, Tony Romo can be just as toxic and come Sunday he’ll be playing with a bruised hand. Again, you just don’t know what you’re going to get when these teams collide. And while you might as well flip a coin when it comes to predicting who will win, at least we know this game will be highly entertaining. Strap ‘em up!

2. Ravens or Steelers?
Given the dynamics at play, this might be the most interesting question this week. Baltimore and Pittsburgh have identical 11-4 records but the Ravens have the edge because of two head-to-head wins over the Steelers. But Baltimore has also been a completely different team on the road this year than at home, and the Ravens play at Cincinnati this Sunday. The Steelers, meanwhile, will travel to Cleveland to play a sputtering Browns team that hasn’t won in five weeks. Considering the Bengals need a win to wrap up the sixth spot in the AFC, they’re going to give Baltimore everything they have. After all these weeks of Baltimore being in the driver’s seat, it would be interesting to watch the Ravens flip with the Steelers and become the No. 5 seed instead of the No. 2 seed. That would dramatically alter the playoff picture in the AFC because again, the Ravens are a much tougher team at home than they are on the road. Plus, if the Steelers clinch the No. 2 seed then Ben Roethlisberger would essentially have two weeks to rest his injured ankle before Pittsburgh played its first playoff game. This Sunday is absolutely huge for not only the top three teams in the AFC North, but also for the entire AFC playoff structure.

3. Raiders or Broncos?
The Raiders looked like they were headed for their fourth consecutive loss last Sunday before Richard Seymour got one of his big paws on Ryan Succop’s game-winning field goal attempt. Now Oakland has an opportunity to win the AFC West if it can find a way to beat San Diego and have Kansas City upset Denver. The Broncos have an “easier” path to the playoffs because the Chiefs are a more inferior team than the Chargers, but let’s not forget how indifferent San Diego can be at times. (Denver also could lose and still make the playoffs if Oakland falls as well.) With nothing to play for it wouldn’t be surprising if the Bolts rolled over and played dead for the Raiders, even though they could effectively end Oakland’s season. It wouldn’t be shocking if both Denver and Oakland won but then again, something crazy always seems to happen in the final week of the season. Thus, strap in and hang on tight…

4. Bengals, Raiders, Titans or Jets?
The sixth seed in the AFC has become the redheaded stepchild of this year’s playoffs. (My apologies to all redheaded stepchildren.) You get the sense that whichever team makes it in will be making a quick exit out of the playoffs come next week. But think about it, the Texans are the No. 3 seed and just lost to the Colts. On any given Sunday, the Bengals, Raiders, Titans or Jets could certainly upset Houston in the Wild Card round. Granted, none of those teams would fare well against the Patriots in the Divisional Round, but the key takeaway is that whoever clinches the sixth seed in the AFC has a legitimate shot of advancing to the second round. And let’s not forget how the Seahawks shocked the world by upsetting the Saints in last year’s playoffs when they were double-digit underdogs. Thus, the race for the sixth seed is more interesting then people may think. (Uh, you know, despite the fact that all of the teams competing for it are highly flawed.)

5. How will the final playoff picture look in the NFC?
Outside of the Packers, who are entrenched in the No. 1 spot, and the winner of the NFC East, which would be the No. 4 seed, the rest of the NFC playoff picture is completely unsettled. We know that it’ll be the 49ers or Saints that wrap up the No. 2 seed. Considering San Francisco is playing St. Louis this Sunday, it’ll probably be the Niners that will earn a bye week and home field advantage in the Divisional Round. But the two Wild Card spots are up for grabs, too. The Lions have a one-game edge over the Falcons, but Atlanta beat Detroit earlier this year so if the Lions lose to the Packers and the Falcons beat the Bucs then Atlanta would wrap up the No. 5 seed. That’s highly important to the Falcons, who were just crushed by the Saints on Monday night and probably aren’t ready to go back to the Superdome next week if they’re the sixth seed and New Orleans is the third seed. And then…ah, whatever. Who needs a drink after trying to figure all of this out?

Every Sunday throughout the 2011 NFL season I’ll compile quick-hit reactions from the day that was in football. I vow to always overreact, side with sensationalism over rationalism, and draw conclusions based on small sample sizes instead of cold, hard facts. It’s the only way I know how to write…

- Holy facemask, Batman – why wasn’t a penalty called on linebacker DeAndre Levy when he grabbed Joe Webb’s facemask on that crazy final play in Detroit today? Granted, the game should have never come down to that play for the Lions, who were up 31-14 at one point. But how do you miss that if you’re the refs?

- Speaking of Webb – dude was fun to watch today. The Lions didn’t prepare for a running quarterback in practice this week so it’s not surprising that Webb was able to burn Detroit with his legs. But he nearly led Minnesota to the most improbable win of the day. I feel like I’m back in 2010 when Webb was starting for that perv Brett Favre.

- It’s hard to criticize the effort that Jake Locker put in today while replacing the injured Matt Hasselbeck (calf). For three and a half quarters Locker went toe-to-toe with Drew Brees and nearly willed the Titans to a huge come-from-behind victory. He flashed his athletic ability on a 6-yard touchdown run that gave the Titans a brief lead in the second half, and threw a couple beautiful passes in the fourth quarter to put his team into scoring range. That said, THROW THE BALL, KID! Anything but take a sack in that situation.

- Tim Tebow: Five fourth-quarter or overtime wins this season. That’s amazing. The guy won’t complete a pass for the first quarter and a half (although his receivers didn’t help him today), will look completely horrendous until the fourth quarter and then pull some miraculous victory out of his backside. He’s a mixture of luck, clutch play and pure disaster but Denver now owns the AFC West with three games remaining. Think about that for a second.

- What’s the big deal? So Tom Brady got yelled at. Stop the presses. He threw an ugly interception midway through the fourth quarter and it pissed off offensive coordinator Bill O’Brien. Even Super Bowl MVPs deserve a tongue-lashing from time to time. Neither Brady nor O’Brien will let this dustup affect their relationship moving forward.

- Rob Gronkowski is essentially uncoverable one-one-one. Washington’s defensive backs were draped all over him on several of his catches and he/Brady still made plays. Gronk has some big-time mitts.

- I’m done doubting the Texans. That’s the grittiest team I’ve seen play in a long time. Without its top two quarterbacks, its top defensive player and its top offensive weapon, Houston just keeps plugging along. I keep waiting for the Texans to eventually come up short and it looked like they would today in Cincinnati. Then all of a sudden T.J. Yates is throwing a game-winning touchdown pass as time expires. Tim Tebow lovers may disagree but Houston is the best story of the season.

- That’s a blow that I don’t think the Bengals will be able to come back from. Wowzers. Talk about snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.

- If Shonn Greene continues to run as hard as he did today, the Jets will be dangerous again if/when they make the playoffs. New York’s entire success offensively revolves around its running game. It has to with Mark Sanchez at the helm.

- Down 23-7 at halftime, the Falcons looked like a team that didn’t deserve to be a playoff team. They had zero urgency or energy, their offensive line looked like a complete mess and the defense couldn’t tackle a soul. Then they came out in the second half and played like the team people thought they would at the beginning of the season. Matt Ryan threw four touchdown passes, including two to Julio Jones (who had a case of the drops earlier in the game) and one beautiful rainbow to rookie Jacquizz Rodgers. It appears as though the Saints will win the NFC South but the Falcons are in great shape assuming they don’t crap the bed from here on out. They have a very winnable home game against the Jaguars this week before heading to New Orleans for a rematch with the Saints and hosting the Bucs in Week 17. There’s no reason Atlanta shouldn’t get to 10 wins and secure the fifth seed in the NFC (assuming the Saints keep winning, that is). Had the Falcons lost today in Carolina, they would have been on the outside looking in. Good thing they woke up.

- All that crap the Bears talked about this week regarding the Broncos’ style of play and they go out and cough up a potential victory. That soft Tampa 2 the Bears run on defense makes it awfully easy for even a guy like Tim Tebow to complete passes with the game on the line.

- Was today’s loss to the Cardinals the product of their division-clinching win last Sunday against the Rams, or are the Niners starting to show some cracks? I think a little bit of both. Clearly San Francisco was out of whack and it wasn’t surprising that the Niners came out flat after securing a playoff berth last weekend. But they’re susceptible to the deep pass defensively, which isn’t a good sign considering San Fran could eventually play Green Bay or New Orleans in the playoffs. Starting left tackle Joe Staley was also hurt, which is a huge problem considering Alex Boone is his replacement. Hopefully for San Fran’s sake, this loss will serve as a wakeup call for the Niners.

- The Cardinals have six wins on the year and John Skelton is essentially responsible for four of them. (He didn’t start today but he essentially won the game for Arizona once Kevin Kolb was forced to leave with a head injury.) Oh those scrappy John Skelton-led Cardinals…

- I truly didn’t expect the Raiders to beat the Packers today at Lambeau but what an ugly performance by Oaktown. For entertainment sake, here’s hoping Tebowmania keeps rolling and the Broncos make the playoffs over the Raiders, who have looked completely lethargic the past two weeks.

- Whistlegate? Titans’ offensive linemen Jake Scott and Michael Roos said that a whistle was being blown in the area of the Saints’ bench late in New Orleans’ 22-17 victory in Tennessee. My question is, wouldn’t the ref on the New Orleans’ sideline hear the whistle? This story ranks right up there with “Tripgate” from last year.

- It’s amazing how Raheem Morris has gone from being one of the league’s brightest young coaches to being on the hot seat. The organization will have to figure out whether or not it wants Morris to be a lame duck in 2012 or fire him this offseason, because clearly the Bucs can’t give this guy an extension. That was an ugly performance by Morris’ Bucs in Jacksonville today.

- Somehow, the Chargers are still alive…

- While watching the Packers absolutely destroy the Raiders today at Lambeau, I thought to myself, “Why even have a playoff? Just hand the ‘Discount Double-Check’s’ the Lombardi.” Then Greg Jennings left the field on a cart after suffering a leg injury that obviously left him in a ton of pain. Green Bay overcame a slew of injuries to win the Super Bowl last year and the Pack certainly have enough weapons to keep terrorizing opponents on a weekly basis. But losing Jennings would be a massive blow.

- Santana Moss won’t sleep well tonight. With the Skins knocking on the door of a potential game-tying score against the Patriots in the closing minutes, he was flagged for offensive pass interference, which moved Washington back to the 15-yard-line. Then he had a Rex Grossman pass bounce off his hands and into those of linebacker Jerod Mayo, which ended the Skins’ comeback attempt. You have to hand it to Washington though. They keep fighting no matter who the opponent is.

- Just think if the Philadelphia defense played that well every week. Given how shaky the rest of the NFC East is, they’d probably be closing in on a playoff spot right now.

Four spreads of note:

Giants +3 @ Cowboys, 8:30PM ET, Sunday
This game is the ultimate crapshoot; it could play out in a variety of different ways, none of which would be surprising. But if you’re looking for value, I almost always go with the underdog when it comes to betting on NFC East teams. When NFC East teams are expected to win against an inferior opponent, for whatever reason they seem to underachieve. Examples of this include the Cowboys’ loss to the Cardinals last week, or their failed cover against the Dolphins and Redskins, respectively, in previous games. The Giants also lost to the Seahawks at home, failed to cover against the Dolphins at home, and lost the Eagles as a 6-point favorite in Week 11. On the flip side, the Giants covered and won against the Eagles (Week 2), Patriots (Week 9) and Packers (Week 13) as underdogs of seven points or more. Granted, New York was also crushed by New Orleans in Week 12 but my point is this: NFC East teams often represent value when they’re the underdog and are good fade material when they’re supposed to win. I don’t have hard data here so take this simple approach with a grain of salt. But again, from a pure value standpoint it sure seems like NFC East teams rise to the challenge when they’re the dog.

Raiders +11 @ Packers, 4:15PM ET
As I’ve written many times on this site: It’s Green Bay and then everyone else. And with how poorly Oakland played last Sunday in Miami, there will be plenty of bettors that look at the spread in this game and lay the 11 points without hesitation. But let’s keep in mind that the Raiders’ backs are against the wall here. They’re now tied with Denver for first place in the AFC West and while they play undefeated Green Bay this Sunday, the Broncos have a very winnable home game against a Jay Cutler and Matt Forte-less Chicago team. Thus, we’re probably going to see Oakland’s best effort. With the amount of injuries that the Raiders accumulated in the past month, it was only a matter of time before they suffered a letdown like they did last weekend against the Dolphins. Thus, I’m thinking they bounce back strong this Sunday and at the very least stay within 10 points of the Pack.

49ers -3.5 @ Cardinals, 4:05PM ET
This is a game you look at and you say, “49ers are only -3.5? Sign me up.” But Arizona proved last Sunday in its win over Dallas that it hasn’t given up on the season despite the fact that the playoffs remain a longshot. The Rams, on the other hand, gave up weeks ago and bettors will probably rush to the window to lay coin on a Niners team that routed St. Louis by 26 points last week. What I’m saying is that this is your classic trap game. Oddsmakers claim that they don’t lay traps for bettors but why is this game only 3.5? San Fran is 10-2 this season while Arizona is 5-7. Even with home field advantage factored in, the line still seems too low. I’m not suggested that the Cards will win outright but something tells me oddsmakers are banking on this being a field goal game either way.

Falcons -3 @ Panthers, 1:00PM ET
I wrote this in my recap of Week 13 and I’ll mention it again seeing as how it relates to this article: I don’t think there’s that wide of a gap between the Falcons and Panthers right now. On paper, Atlanta has better overall talent. But on paper, Atlanta had better overall talent than Houston and it lost 17-10 despite the fact that Andre Johnson suffered another hamstring injury in the second half and T.J. Yates started for the Texans at quarterback. The Falcons will once again be without top cornerback Brent Grimes and nickel back Kelvin Hayden, which means Dominique Franks and Chris Owens will receive plenty of looks this Sunday from Cam Newton. Given the inexperience of Franks and Owens, they become a weakness that Newton may exploit. There’s always value in a home dog and given the injuries the Falcons are currently dealing with on both sides of the ball, I’d give Carolina a long look this Sunday.

2011 NFL Week 14 Odds:

Read the rest of this entry »

Every Sunday throughout the 2011 NFL season I’ll compile quick-hit reactions from the day that was in football. I vow to always overreact, side with sensationalism over rationalism, and draw conclusions based on small sample sizes instead of cold, hard facts. It’s the only way I know how to write…

- I’ll write this every week until somebody proves they can beat them: When it comes to the power structure in the NFL, it’s the Packers and everyone else. Outside of maybe the Saints, any other team would have tried a few feeble pass attempts at the end of that game today in New York and then settled for overtime. But not Aaron Rodgers and the Packers, who glided down the field in 14 seconds, got into field goal range and kicked a game-winner at the end of regulation. Teams will continue to move the ball on Green Bay’s defense but give Rodgers an inch and he’s going to take 80 yards (and six points). I’ve written this several times on this site: Ted Thompson built one hell of a team because while Rodgers is unbelievable, he has a slew of weapons at his disposal. I just don’t see how this team loses at home in the playoffs.

- Tim Tebow made some great throws today, which of course is a noteworthy because Tim Tebow rarely makes good throws. That said, he might as well have been throwing against air because Minnesota’s secondary let Denver’s receivers run wild the entire game. It was almost as if the Vikings gave Demaryius Thomas a free one-day pass to tour their defensive backfield. And boy did he take advantage of it.

- The Texans will be fine with T.J. Yates under center. He was fortunate that his biggest mistake (an interception return for touchdown by the Falcons’ Mike Peterson) was wiped out by a holding penalty on cornerback Dunta Robinson. But even if that play stood ,Yates played well enough to win. In fact, he outplayed a mistake-prone Matt Ryan. That said, with Andre Johnson scheduled to undergo an MRI on his hamstring, you have to wonder if the Texans will just be happy to make the playoffs if/when they do. They’ve played some gritty football this season but they’re going to be awfully worn out come January.

- The Giants deserve credit for showing up today after being humiliated by the Saints on Monday Night Football. But it’s startling how easy it is for offenses to move the chains on their defense. Granted, New York is dealing with a ton of injuries on that side of the ball but it took Aaron Rodgers just 14 seconds to get into field goal range for the game-winner today. Fourteen seconds! It takes me longer to speed dial my mother.

- The Raiders deserve a lot of credit for overcoming injuries on both sides of the ball in order to win three in a row coming into this week. But a big part of me wondered if they were winning with smokes and mirrors. Michael Bush has been outstanding but was the defense as really as good as it seemed or was its play a product of the offenses they were playing (i.e. San Diego, Minnesota and the Jay Cutler-less Bears)? That question may have been answered today. Miami racked up 362 yards of total offense, including 209 yards on the ground. Oakland’s run defense has been Jekyll and Hyde all year and today they were more Jekyll than Hyde. Now that they’re tied with the Broncos atop the AFC West it’ll be interesting to see how Oakland responds to this loss, especially with a trip to Green Bay coming up next week.

- How did so many teams miss Antonio Brown in the 2010 draft? It’s not like he didn’t tear it up at Central Michigan and clearly he has the speed to be an effective return man yet he lasted until the sixth round. He only made two catches today but his 45-yard catch-and-run was a display of pure speed. It’s almost unfair for defenses to that Big Ben is always able to break out of would-be tackles and throw to speedsters like Brown and Mike Wallace.

- They played the Rams so take this for what it’s worth: The Niners showed today that they have more than “just” Frank Gore on offense. Alex Smith (17-of-23 for 274 yards and two touchdowns) had his best game of the season, while receivers Michael Crabtree and Kyle Williams flashed a good deal of playmaking ability themselves. Given how good the defense is, if some of San Fran’s other weapons step up offensively, there’s no reason to think the Niners can’t make it to the NFC title game or beyond.

- The Falcons’ offense was completely out of sync today in Houston. Part of the reason for that was because Michael Turner was dealing with a groin injury and ran like he had four tons of cement tied to his legs. Wade Phillips’ defense also constantly harassed Matt Ryan, who wasn’t on the same page with his receivers (who kept dropping the ball). But the bigger issue is that Mike Smith and Mike Mularkey blew it by not running the no-huddle at the start of the year. It’s the offense that Ryan is most comfortable and most successful running but because the Falcons are trying to iron out kinks in live games, it’s no surprise that they sputtered against a good defense. Had Smith switched to the no-huddle months ago, the Falcons may be firing on all cylinders right now. Regardless, it’s clear that Atlanta isn’t good enough to beat the top teams in the league. They’re a classic second-tier team and I don’t see them getting over the hump this season.

- Considering Percy Harvin has been the Vikings’ entire offense the past two weeks while Adrian Peterson has been out, I don’t blame Christian Ponder for looking his way with Minnesota needing a big play with under two minutes remaining in a tied game. But in the name of Tim Tebow that was a horrible decision by Ponder on Andre Goodman’s interception. Harvin had coverage in front of him, behind him, and to the side of him. He might as well been wearing a Denver uniform he was so covered up.

- Jets, Bengals, Falcons, Lions, Bears, Giants. Nice Wild Card teams this year. Not a flaw in that group.

- Rob Gronkwoski is only 22 and he’s already the GREATEST TIGHT END TO HAVE EVER PLAYED THE GAME. Just ask his fantasy owners.

- Tyler Palko’s first career touchdown pass was even more improbable than his first career win. On a day when the 4-7 Chiefs knocked off the 7-4 Bears, Palko’s first TD as a pro came on a fluke Hail Mary to Dexter McCluster right before half. Brian Urlacher leaped into the air and batted the ball perfectly into McCluster’s hands. Who would have thought that score would be all the Chiefs needed to win?

- You heard it here first: The Panthers will beat the Falcons next Sunday in Carolina. The records say different but there’s not that big of a gap between Carolina and Atlanta right now. And with two of the Falcons’ top three corners out with injuries, Cam Newton should have a field day throwing the ball. (On a related note, that pitch-back to Newton that the Panthers ran today in their win over the Bucs was sweeeet.)

- Every team has to deal with injuries. It’s the ones that draft well and build depth through free agency that can overcome the inevitable bumps and bruises. But what’s a team to do when it losses it’s quarterback and star player in a three-week span? You almost have to feel for the Bears, who lost Matt Forte to a Grade 2 MCL sprain today. For those that watched Chicago’s loss to Kansas City, you saw a Bears team that had absolutely nothing offensively. Even though they currently own the fifth seed in the NFC, the Bears aren’t making the playoffs with a backfield tandem of Caleb Hanie and Marion Barber. It’s an unfortunate situation for a team that looked like it was postseason bound just three weeks ago.

- Following Cleveland’s loss to Baltimore, Browns coach Pat Shumur said that Peyton Hillis is dealing with an undisclosed injury and his status for Week 14 is uncertain. I’m not suggesting he’s a bad player but what team in their right mind would give Hillis a huge contract? The guy just can’t stay healthy. (Although if you’re the Browns, what choice do you have? That team has zero offense.)

- Classic Cowboys. They scratch and claw their way up the NFC East standings and with a golden opportunity to take a two-game lead over the Giants in the division, they lose to the Cardinals while scoring only 13 points. Oh, and after Jason Garrett freezes his own placekicker. Even though New York lost to Green Bay and remains one game behind Dallas with four weeks left to play, the race in the East is far from over. As Arizona proved today, that’s a very flawed team that Jerry Jones owns.

- The fact that the Cardinals continue to fight despite the fact that they have basically nothing to play for is a credit to Ken Whistenhunt. Some were suggesting that he be fired at the start of the season but he’s clearly still the right man for the job. One strong offseason and I envision the Cards challenging the Niners in the division next year.

- The Ravens have gone run-heavy the past three games following an ugly loss to the Seahawks in which they tried to win by being aggressive through the air. That makes me wonder what John Harbaugh said to Cam Cameron the week after the Seattle loss. “Hey Cam, come on in. As you’ll see behind me, Ray Rice is standing to my left and to my right is the door. It’s up to you which one you want to use from this point forward but it will be one or the other.”

- The Bengals have been one of this year’s biggest surprises and nobody thought they’d win five games nevertheless seven. But their performance today in Pittsburgh proved just how far they have in their maturation process. Andy Dalton looked like a deer caught in the headlights and if it weren’t for A.J. Green (who at this point is clearly better than Julio Jones), Cincinnati may not have cracked 100 yards of offense. The fans in Cincinnati have suffered long enough and they deserve to watch their team in the playoffs but it’s hard to imagine the Bengals winning a postseason game on the road.

- That’s almost kind of like a win for the Colts, right? Twenty-one point dog and they lose by seven. Not bad considering.