2009 NFL Week 11 Picks & Predictions

Here are my locks (locks, ha!) for Week 11 in the NFL:

Chargers (6-3) at Broncos (6-3), 4:15PM ET
Denver quarterback Kyle Orton is questionable this week with an ankle injury, which means Chris Simms could make his first start of the season. Simms looked Brady Quinn-like bad in a loss to the Redskins last week and I wouldn’t expect much out of him if I were a Broncos fan. If Simms starts, I fully expect the Chargers to load up to stop Knowshon Moreno and force the former Bucs’ QB to beat them through the air. It’s not going to happen and even if Orton does start, how effective can he be on a bum ankle? About as effective as he was last year for the Bears on a bum ankle? The Chargers are hot, have revenge on their minds and are eyeing sole possession of first place in the AFC West. Plus, Philip Rivers is playing just as well as Peyton Manning, Drew Brees, Tom Brady and Kurt Warner. I’m taking the Chargers to win outright and to cover.
Odds: Chargers –2.5.
Prediction: Chargers 31, Broncos 16.

Redskins (3-6) at Cowboys (6-3), 1:00PM ET
Now that the Cowboys have once again established that they’re still the same inconsistent team under Wade Phillips as they’ve always been, I’m wondering if the Redskins can pull off a huge upset this week in Dallas. Then again, without the brutal play of Chris Simms’ aiding them in victory, I can’t see Washington winning this weekend. In fact, I see this game being a blow out since the Redskins will once again be without running back Clinton Portis and Albert Haynesworth is doubtful to play as well. The Redskins have shown the ability to stop the pass, but if the Cowboys can control this game with Marion Barber and Felix Jones then Washington doesn’t stand a chance. Dallas’ offense should rebound from its horrid performance last week as long as the ground attack can help set things up for Tony Romo and the passing game. Washington just doesn’t have the players to compete with Dallas for four quarters and given how bad the Redskins’ O-line has played this season, they’re going to have trouble stopping the Cowboys’ solid pass rush.
Odds: Cowboys –11
Prediction: Cowboys 34, Redskins 13.

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Is Orton about to make the same mistake twice?

According to ESPN.com, Broncos quarterback Kyle Orton has torn ligaments in his left ankle, but wants to start Sunday when Denver hosts the Chargers in a battle for first place in the AFC West.

When Orton was still a member of the Bears last year, he played on a right ankle injury and wound up doing more harm than good. The ankle didn’t allow him to plant correctly on his back foot and that hindered his throws, which led to turnovers and accuracy issues.

Now it appears that Orton is ready to repeat history, but it looks like he will play on Sunday. That might sound like good news to Bronco fans given how inept Chris Simms was replacing Orton last Sunday in Washington. But if Kyle has similar issues to the ones he had last year than Denver won’t be any better off with him under center instead of Simms.

Granted, the injury this time is on his left foot, which is not his plant foot. He’ll still be able to plant and throw and therefore might have fewer issues than he did last year when he battled the right ankle injury. Still, it’s a situation to keep an eye on because if he isn’t healthy, it could potential sink the Broncos’ once promising season.


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NFL Week 7 COY Power Rankings

Okay, so we can finally separate Josh McDaniels and Marvin Lewis after the former beat San Diego to reach 6-0 and the latter lost a tough home game to Houston. Here is our current power rankings for NFL Coach of the Year:

1. Josh McDaniels, Denver Broncos—Seriously, 6-0? The schedule keeps getting tougher, but it doesn’t seem to faze this team or their confident coach. Dude is a mini-Belichick, the first “offspring” to be worthy of that title.

2. Sean Payton, New Orleans Saints—After beating the Giants to reach 5-0, we can start talking about the very real likelihood of the Saints reaching the Super Bowl for the first time, and this guy is a big reason why. It’s still amazing that he managed to pay his defensive coordinator a quarter mil of his own cash to lure him, but it seems to have been worth it.

3. Jim Caldwell, Indianapolis Colts—Just like his QB, you can’t fault Caldwell for the bye week.

4. Brad Childress, Minnesota Vikings—Now 6-0, there should be no question that Childress did himself and the city of Minnesota a huge favor bringing back #4. He sure wasn’t going to be 6-0 with Tarvaris Jackson, was he?

5. Mike Smith, Atlanta Falcons—A tough win against the Bears, and this team is not fading any time soon. Really, the Falcons and Saints are two of the best teams in the NFC and it should be interesting when they meet.

Honorable mention: Tom Coughlin, Giants; Bill Belichick, Patriots; Marvin Lewis, Bengals

Six-Pack of Observations: Broncos 34, Chargers 23

1. Royal is making his presence felt in other facets of the game
After hauling in 91 receptions for 980 yards and five touchdowns as a rookie last year, Eddie Royal has largely been a bust in his second year. But he proved Monday night that he could contribute in other areas, especially on special teams. He returned a 93-yard kickoff return for a touchdown in the first quarter and a 71-yard punt return in the second quarter. As Denver’s offense sputtered in the first half, Royal provided a major spark.

2. The Broncos’ offensive line has been fantastic
Kyle Orton has turned out to be a great fit for Josh McDaniels’ offense, but he owes a lot of his success to his O-line. They’ve protected him like Fort Knox all season and did so again Monday night. Orton had all day to throw and was accurate when his receivers broke free from defenders. The Broncos’ front five continues to be one of the better units in the league.

3. The Chargers’ defense is a mess
One would have thought Ron Rivera would have fixed some of San Diego’s defensive issues during the team’s bye week. But the same problems that the Bolts had heading into the bye were evident again tonight: They couldn’t generate any pressure, they didn’t tackle well and they couldn’t come up with the big stop when they needed it. The Broncos did whatever they wanted offensively in the second half.

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Merriman upset with Chargers’ GM over comments

Chargers linebacker Shawne Merriman is upset after general manager A.J. Smith described San Diego’s play this year has been “soft” at times.

From ESPN.com:

On Wednesday, Smith was quoted in The San Diego Union-Tribune as saying, “Everything is wrong with it right now. I’m not the least bit happy in a lot of areas. I’ve seen us be tough and physical to soft and bewildered.”

Merriman at first declined to comment, which would have been a first in his five-year career.

“I don’t know too much of that. That’s an opinion of a person, and it’s not needed,” Merriman said. “We know that we have to play better. We met for an extra hour and a half as a defense as a whole to discuss what we need to do and things we need to do to get better. And we’re going to make adjustments in this locker room as far as players and our attitudes and getting after people a little more. But all that extra [stuff] is not needed at all.”

Merriman said it would be easier to absorb such talk if it came from a teammate.

“The only opinions that matter to me are the ones in this locker room. Anything else, it doesn’t matter,” he said.

Merriman’s comments in reaction to what Smith said weren’t that bad. In some respects he’s right – comments from a GM regarding the play of a team aren’t needed.

That said, this Chargers have played soft. They allowed the Steelers to do whatever they wanted last Sunday night and even when Jacob Hester gave them new life with his touchdown fumble recovery, San Diego’s defense sat back as Pittsburgh strolled back down the field and put seven more points on the board. When they absolutely needed a stop, they couldn’t get one.

So no, Smith’s comments aren’t needed. Nor are they untrue.

Steelers nearly blow four-touchdown lead against Chargers

Midway through the third quarter of the Steelers-Chargers game on Sunday night, I started pounding away at a post dedicated to how Pittsburgh silenced its critics with a dominating victory over San Diego.

Seriously, I was finished outside of adding the final score and some stats. And it was good too. It was about how the Steelers got back to their grass roots while running the ball down the Chargers’ throats, controlling the time of possession and finally playing four quarters. At the time, Pittsburgh was up 28-0 and the game was essentially over as San Diego was on life support.

Then Jacob Hester made an incredible play early in the fourth when he stripped Stefan Logan on a punt return and raced 41 yards into the end zone to cut Pittsburgh’s lead to 28-14.

No problem I thought, a couple extra sentences ought to cover me as the Steelers answered Hester’s touchdown with one of their own to make it 35-14.

Then the journalism gods decided to punish me for writing a recap when the freaking game wasn’t even finished, because the Chargers got within one touchdown of the Steelers late in the fourth before Pittsburgh iced the game with a 46-yard Jeff Reed field goal to give the Steelers a 38-28 victory.

Annnnnnnnnddddd delete.

In reality, not much changed from the time the Steelers were up 28-0 to the time they walked away with a 38-28 win. They still dominated a hapless San Diego run defense by racking up 177 yards on the ground (Rashard Mendenhall finally strapped on the big boy pants and rushed for 165 yards and two touchdowns on 29 carries) and kept the ball for 40 minutes and 20 seconds, compared to the Chargers’ 19 minutes and 40 seconds.

Pittsburgh dominated this game, but it can’t sit well with Mike Tomlin that his team nearly had another fourth quarter collapse. The Steelers can’t figure out a way to put their opponents away and I don’t know if that’s coaching or if the players are at fault for letting up. Either way, it’s a troubling sign so far for a defending Super Bowl champion that has split its first four games of the season and has looked rather mediocre.

Nevertheless, the Steelers earned their second victory of the year and did so by running the ball. Granted, Ben Roethlisberger looked great and the pass protection was outstanding, but this is a team that needs to run the football when the weather starts to turn and Pittsburgh did so tonight.

As for the Chargers, I applaud them for making it close in the end, but Norv Turner’s bunch didn’t show up until seven minutes left in the third when Hester gave them a spark. They were completely dominated in most phases of the game and all of a sudden they have zero running game. For a team that was supposed to walk away with the AFC West, San Diego barely looks like a .500 team right now.

LT out for this weekend; NFL lifts Chargers blackout

The USA Today is reporting that LaDainian Tomlinson is officially listed as out for the Chargers’ home game this Sunday against the Ravens. But the good news for San Diego fans is that the NFL decided to lift its blackout for the game.

The team expects the effects of an ankle injury suffered in Monday’s win against Oakland to be too much for Tomlinson to overcome.

Darren Sproles and Michael Bennett will likely split carries for the Chargers in Tomlinson’s place when the Ravens arrive in San Diego for Sunday’s game.

The NFL also lifted the blackout for Sunday’s game in San Diego after the Chargers satisfied their ticket-selling requirements.

The Chargers had received a 24-hour extension to continue selling after Thursday’s deadline for games to sell out.

Darren Sproles will get the start against the Ravens, although Michael Bennett will also see some carries.

Glad to see the NFL lifted the blackout. It’s a ridiculous notion to make people pay hundreds of dollars to go to a game and then blackout a television broadcast if fans don’t fill the stadium. It makes me sick for fans in Jacksonville that all eight of the Jaguars home games won’t be shown on TV this season. People in this country work too damn hard not to be able to watch their favorite teams on Sunday.

Shawne Merriman arrested for choking Tila Tequila

You read that right. Shawne Merriman is (or was) dating reality TV star Tila Tequila and was arrested on Sunday for assaulting her.

Per ESPN…

San Diego Chargers star outside linebacker Shawne Merriman was arrested Sunday and accused of choking and restraining his girlfriend, reality TV star Tila Tequila, as she tried to leave his suburban home.

Tequila, 27, signed a citizen’s arrest warrant, charging Merriman with battery and false imprisonment, San Diego County Sheriff’s Lt. Gary Steadman said.

Deputies responded about 3:45 a.m. to Merriman’s house in Poway, north of San Diego, after a woman called to say she was choked by the player and thrown to the ground when she tried to leave, Sheriff’s Department spokesman Jan Caldwell said at a news conference.

Tequila, whose real name is Tila Nguyen, is best known for “A Shot at Love with Tila Tequila,” which ran for two seasons on MTV. The bisexual dating show featured men and women vying for Tequila’s affections. She has also modeled for Playboy and other men’s magazines.

A few words of free, unsolicited advice for Mr. Merriman: 1) stop choking people, and 2) stop dating bisexual reality TV stars.

If this incident doesn’t quickly “go away,” then Merriman could face another suspension for violating the NFL’s conduct policy.

9/7 Update: Merriman denies any wrongdoing.

Rivers gets more guaranteed money than Eli

Quarterback Philip Rivers and the Chargers agreed to a new six-year extension worth slightly more than $92 million. Rivers will receive roughly $50 million over the first three years.

From the San Diego Tribune:

“I certainly couldn’t have asked that it could have gone any better than it did,” said Rivers, who signed the largest contract in club history shortly before Monday’s 4 p.m. practice. “I can’t say enough how excited I am and how thankful I am that it’s done, and (that) I’ll be here for a long time.”

Both sides expressed during talks the need to get the deal done before the regular season. There was the potential that Rivers could make a lot more money if he and/or the Chargers had a big season, but there was also the potential he could get hurt. And Chargers General Manager A.J. Smith had expressed his willingness to place the franchise tag on Rivers next offseason if no deal was reached.
There was a debate about whether or not the Giants overpaid for Eli Manning’s extension a couple weeks ago. Ironically, Manning got $34.5 million guaranteed and will make $48.5 million over the first three years, compared to Rivers’ $38.25 million guaranteed and $50 million over the first three years.

Manning has a Super Bowl ring, while Rivers does not. Yet there seems to be less outrage over Rivers’ deal than there was over Manning’s. Interesting.

Either way, the Bolts did what they had to do. They have a franchise quarterback in Rivers and they had to pony up after Manning signed his extension. When teams have a quarterback that has already proven he can win divisions and lead the franchise to the postseason, you have to do everything in your power to retain him.

Daily Six-Pack: NFL Preseason Saturday

Six games highlight Saturday’s preseason action in the NFL. Below are six things to keep an eye on tonight in the NFL.

1. It’s the start of a new era in Detroit.
Word out of Lions camp is that rookie Matthew Stafford is way ahead of the curve when it comes to first-year quarterbacks. Even though Detroit would love to see veteran Daunte Culpepper take the majority of the snaps behind a brutal offensive line this season, it appears that Stafford has made quite the impression and it may be hard for the Lions to keep him on the sidelines. Today when the Lions host the Falcons in both teams’ preseason opener, Detroit isn’t going to overact to Stafford’s performance either way. If he goes out and throws two interceptions in two series, they’ll shrug it off as a learning experience. If he throws two touchdowns on his first two pass attempts, the team will chalk it up to preseason luck and hope the live game experience will be valuable in his development. The point is that it’s only preseason and chances are, his performance won’t be an indication either way of how well he’ll fair in Detroit. The key is that the Lions can officially put their disastrous 2008 season behind them today, and Stafford represents the future.

2. Cutler makes his Bears’ debut.
You’ll be hard pressed to find a Chicagoan who isn’t thinking playoffs (or even Super Bowl) after the Bears acquired quarterback Jay Cutler from the Broncos this offseason. You’ll have to excuse Chicago fans for their budding enthusiasm because, you see, they’ve been waiting a long time for a quarterback of Cutler’s ilk to pass through their great city. Sure, the Bears still don’t have the greatest set of receivers and there are still question marks surrounding the offensive line, even after the offseason addition of Orlando Pace. But none of that will matter once Cutler lines up under center tonight against the Bills and riffles his first completion, because the Bears finally have their quarterback.

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