Are the Kings leaving Sacramento?

Per SPORTSbyBROOKS, quoting ESPN 710 host Jon Ireland:

“The people I have talked to in the NBA have told me that the Kings are going to be forced to move. They are not, especially in that political climate, going to get a new arena. No matter what the mayor says, no matter what the Maloofs say. Most of the people close to the team have told me they will try everything humanly possible to stay in Sacramento but that it’s not in the cards.

“I don’t know if Anaheim would happen, that would put three teams within 50 miles of each other, highly unlikely. But Kansas City has a new Anschutz (managed) arena, that’s a very likely possibility … and Seattle would like to get the Sonics back. You’re looking at maybe 3-5 more seasons in Sacramento and then after they’re going to have to find a place to play.”

It’s funny what winning will do for your attendance. Remember how Sacramento had one of the most rocking arenas in the NBA? Back when Chris Webber, Mike Bibby and Peja Stojakovic had the Kings in the title hunt, the Kings sold out every game. In fact, as recently as the 2006-07 season (when the Kings were 33-49), attendance figures show 100 percent of seats sold. Sure, they were probably sold out from the previous season, when the Kings had 44 wins, but that’s pretty good fan loyalty.

Last season, the Kings averaged 12,571 fans, or 72.6 percent of capacity. It’s pretty clear that the city of Sacramento can support a NBA team if that team is decent. Since the team isn’t going to suddenly get better in a different city, I’m not sure that moving is the answer. It will probably come down to getting a new arena, which looks like a long shot in Sacramento. If the Kings move and are still terrible, they’ll be running into the same problem in five or ten more years, in Anaheim, Kansas City, Seattle, or wherever they land.

2009 NBA Preview: Pacific Division

This year, we’re doing a division-by-division preview with quick-hitting analysis for every team in the league. If a franchise is a legitimate championship contender, I’ll focus on what stars have to line up for a title run. If a team is a playoff “also-ran,” I’ll identify the weaknesses that have to be shored up via trade, free agency or draft over the next couple of seasons to make it a contender. If a team is likely to miss the playoffs, I’ll take a look at the salary cap, and provide a blueprint for how the team should proceed in the near future to get back in the postseason. At the end of each divisional preview, I’ll provide some (random) thoughts for the fantasy hoopsters out there.

For each division, I’ll pick the order of finish. You’ll also see the team’s league-wide preseason rank in parenthesis. Be sure to check back over the course of the next couple of weeks for previews of each division.

Los Angeles Lakers (1)
The biggest obstacle for the Lakers this season is Ron Artest. This may sound odd, but the franchise is rolling the dice that Ron-Ron can behave for another season. They gave up on the quietly improving Trevor Ariza and made a big move to add the unruly Artest to the roster. This is risky, especially for a team coming off an impressive title run. Why fiddle with your chemistry like that? Well, GM Mitch Kupchak is well aware that the Lakers aren’t getting by on chemistry. They are a group of very talented players, held together loosely by Phil Jackson’s thoughtful approach and Kobe Bryant’s will to win. In other words, chemistry may not matter to the Lakers, because it’s a by-product of winning. (For most teams, it’s the other way around.) There’s no doubt that Artest brings a lot to the table, but he’s the biggest change from last season, so if the Lakers take a step back, he’ll probably get the blame. Meanwhile, it appears that the big lineup question surrounds the Lamar Odom/Andrew Bynum quandary, but the truth is that Bynum’s game has not developed enough to demand that he be on the floor in crunch time. Odom can shoot (albeit, only a little) and is a terrific ball handler/passer, so Jackson knows that he can better space the court than Bynum can. When both Bynum and Pau Gasol are on the floor, the lane gets clogged and Kobe can’t find driving lanes, so look for Odom to get the edge in minutes again this year. But back to Artest — assuming he accepts a reduction in his offensive role, the Lakers are the odds-on favorites to once again represent the West in the Finals.

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NBA Rumors: Rubio, Boozer, T-Mac and more

Chad Ford writes about why Ricky Rubio is being so selective in his workouts.

First of all, the idea that Rubio is the only one doing it is silly. James Harden has only worked out for four teams. Even the Knicks couldn’t get him in. Hasheem Thabeet will likely only work out for three. DeMar DeRozan has been really selective, and so has Stephen Curry.

It’s pretty simple as to why Rubio is being selective: He is going to have to pay a lot of money for the privilege to play in the NBA next season. His buyout will cost him something between $5 and $7 million of his own money. That’s a lot of money, especially when you consider that Rubio wasn’t making a ton of dough in Spain. He essentially will be signing over his paychecks for the next couple of years to his team in Spain.

The Kings have an obvious hole at point guard on a young team. It seems to be the place his camp wants him to land. If the Kings draft him, I don’t think there’s any question that Rubio would pay the buyout and come. The question is, will the Kings draft him? I think the odds are in Rubio’s favor, but it sounds like some in the organization still need to be convinced.

Rubio’s future might depend on something he has no control over — is Russell Westbrook a point guard? A statistical study I did a few weeks ago revealed that he was turnover-prone and shoot-first, though obviously as a young rookie, there is room for improvement. If the Thunder think he’s a point guard, then I doubt they take Rubio. They’ll take James Harden, who averaged 4.2 assists during his senior year even though he was taking 13 shots per game.

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Which NBA teams will have cap space this summer?

The NBA free agency period starts July 1st, and as that date approaches I’ll preview this year’s free agent class in more detail. But for now, I’d like to take a look at which teams have the cap flexibility to be major players in free agency this summer. (Mind you, just because a team has cap space, it doesn’t necessarily mean that they’ll use it. Just sayin’.)

Not familiar with the NBA salary cap? Here’s a quick primer…

1. The cap for the 2008-09 season was $58.7 million. The general consensus is that the cap will stay flat or decrease slightly. We’ll assume it sticks at $58.7 million.

2. If a team is over the cap, the only free agents they can sign are their own, unless they elect to sign a player to the mid-level exception (~$5.8 million per season), the bi-annual exception (~$2.0) or to a minimum contract. (The bi-annual exception may not be used in two consecutive years.)

3. If a team is under the cap, they can sign any free agent they want as long as they do not exceed the cap. They can also take on salary via trade up to the cap, so a team like the Grizzlies (with almost $20 million in cap space) could conceivably trade their first round pick to the Suns for Amare Stoudemire or to the Raptors for Chris Bosh.

Here’s a list of the bigger names in the free agent pool this summer:

Unrestricted: Carlos Boozer, Ben Gordon, Ron Artest, Lamar Odom, Andre Miller, Shawn Marion, Jason Kidd, Hedo Turkoglu, Allen Iverson, Mehmet Okur, Rasheed Wallace, Mike Bibby, Anderson Varejao, Grant Hill, Kyle Korver, Trevor Ariza, Brandon Bass, Chris Andersen, Zaza Pachulia, Chris Wilcox and Drew Gooden

Restricted: David Lee, Paul Millsap, Ray Felton, Josh Childress*, Marvin Williams, Glen Davis, Ramon Sessions, Charlie Villanueva, Nate Robinson, Leon Powe, Hakim Warrick, Linas Kleiza, Jarrett Jack and Shannon Brown

* It appears that if Childress does return to the NBA, the Hawks still hold his rights, so he would be a restricted free agent.

There are eight teams that project to have more than $5.8 million (the value of the mid-level exception) in cap space this summer:

Memphis Grizzlies
Projected Cap Space: $19.7 million
Memphis has been reluctant to spend for several years now and is probably one of the franchises that’s struggling the most in the current economy. I lived in Memphis for three years, and given its small size and overall lack of wealth, I always thought that it would struggle to support a professional sports team. With a core of Rudy Gay, O.J. Mayo and Marc Gasol, the Grizzlies have to feel pretty good about what they have at off guard, small forward and center. The big decision this summer is what to do with restricted free agent Hakim Warrick. When dealing with bad teams, numbers can be deceptive, because no matter what, somebody has to score and rebound, right? Warrick’s PER (16.91) is #24 amongst power forwards, so ideally he’d be coming off the bench for a playoff team. The Grizzlies projected cap space assumes they make the qualifying offer to Warrick ($3.0 million). Memphis is one of those teams that could really use the services of a Carlos Boozer, David Lee or Paul Millsap, but in this economy, are the Grizzlies willing to make that kind of a commitment? They could try to make a run at Chris Bosh or Amare Stoudemire next summer, but the odds are long that either guy would want to play for the Grizzlies.

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NBA Free Agency Rumors: Wade, ‘Sheed, Boozer and more

- SLAM says that Rasheed Wallace will retire if he doesn’t get at least $8 million to play next season. By my count, there are seven teams — Memphis, Atlanta, Oklahoma City, Sacramento, Toronto, Portland and Minnesota — other than the Pistons that could give him that kind of money. Who would be interested in ‘Sheed? I’m guessing only teams that are on the verge of competing for a title and have a need for a big man with championship experience. The only “contenders” on that list are Atlanta and Portland, and neither seems to be a good fit. Portland already has a slender sharp-shooting big man in LaMarcus Aldridge, and the Hawks will likely spend their cap space on re-signing Mike Bibby (though that isn’t necessarily the right thing to do). So if Portland and Atlanta pass on Wallace, someone will offer him a mid-level deal (~$5.8 M) and he’ll have to decide if it’s worth it. Any team in the league can sign him for that, so if he lowers his price, demand will rise.

- Dwyane Wade reiterated that he will consider signing an extension once he’s eligible to on July 1st, but that he hasn’t given the idea much thought. The Heat would have a ton of cap space this summer had they held onto Shawn Marion and his expiring contract, but they instead traded for Jermaine O’Neal whom they thought would help their chances in the playoffs over the next two seasons. In the end, I doubt D-Wade will leave Miami. He’s a star there, the weather is great, and with Michael Beasley and a yet to be named big man (Chris Bosh, Amare Stoudemire) to be signed in the summer of 2010, the Heat have a good foundation for success. To me, the big question is whether or not Beasley can play small forward. If so, then the team should try to put together a starting lineup of Mario Chalmers, Wade, Beasley, Udonis Haslem and either Bosh or Amare.

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Breaking down the Chicago/Sacramento trade

According to ESPN sources the Bulls and Kings have agreed to a multi-player trade. There aren’t any so-called “big” names in the deal but there are a number of starter-level players involved.

The Chicago Bulls and Sacramento Kings have reached tentative agreement on a trade sending Andres Nocioni, Drew Gooden, Michael Ruffin and Cedric Simmons to the Kings for Brad Miller and John Salmons, front-office sources said on Wednesday.

The Kings would then turn around and ship Ruffin to the Portland Trail Blazers for forward Ike Diogu and cash considerations, sources told ESPN’s Chris Broussard.

One source told ESPN.com that the Bulls players were pulled off the team bus Wednesday afternoon and were told they had been traded.

The trade centers around Nocioni, Gooden (or at least his expiring contract), Miller and Salmons. The Bulls’ big “get” here is probably Brad Miller, who is still a pretty good center. Salmons is a dynamic wing who is playing very well this season, but it will be interesting to see how the Bulls plan to use him. He is not nearly the same player coming off the bench.

For the Kings, they will get immediate salary cap relief as Miller’s $12.3 million will come off the books for next season. Nocioni’s contract runs another three years at the tune of $20 million, so they must see him as an upgrade to Salmons. Nocioni is capable of starting, but has spent most of his time in Chicago coming off the bench in large part because he plays the same position as Luol Deng.

Is there a winner here? Not really. The Bulls got the better end talent-wise, but the Kings got a nice mix of talent and salary cap relief. It looks like a win-win for both sides.

The big news here is that without Gooden’s expiring deal, the Bulls are probably out of the running for Amare Stoudemire’s services. But as the week has worn on it is looking less and less like the Suns are going to move him before the trade deadline.

Salmons, Hinrich trade talk

In Marc Stein’s latest trade deadline column, he discusses potential new homes for Sacramento’s John Salmons and Chicago’s Kirk Hinrich.

San Antonio, meanwhile, is in the hunt as well, pursuing Salmons — with an offer of Bruce Bowen and Ime Udoka — as a far more affordable trade target for its perimeter rotation than Vince Carter. New Jersey’s Carter has tempted the small-market Spurs for days but can be absorbed by them only in a hugely expensive and complicated deal.

There is another complication for interested parties: Sources revealed Tuesday that Salmons has a 15 percent trade kicker in his contract that would require the team that acquires him to pay him a bonus of nearly $2 million and add that figure to its payroll. Salmons otherwise would rank as one of the league’s better bargains, earning just $5.1 million this season while averaging 18.3 points and shooting 47.2 percent from the field and 41.8 percent on 3-pointers.

Salmons is playing heavy minutes this season and isn’t the same player coming off the bench, so if the Spurs were to acquire him, it would behoove them to insert him in their starting lineup. This might be a tough pill to swallow for a franchise that is all about chemistry and players knowing their role. If the Spurs can find a way to add Salmons without losing Roger Mason or George Hill, it would be a pretty nice move. Salmons can start, but he may not finish if Gregg Popovich goes with Mason and Manu Ginobili in crunch time.

Minnesota, according to NBA front-office sources, has strong interest in Hinrich and is pursuing the 28-year-old to address a void at lead guard that hasn’t been filled by Randy Foye (whose success this season came after a shift to shooting guard) or the undependable Sebastian Telfair.

The Wolves also have two expiring contracts of their own (Jason Collins and Rashad McCants) that they’re prepared to shed.

Wow, it’s interesting sometimes to see how far a guy’s stock has fallen. Kirk Hinrich has a very affordable contract — $26.5 million over the next three seasons — but an injury got him off to a slow start this season and he isn’t shooting the ball particularly well, so the Bulls may be willing to trade him to Minnesota for cap relief. Derrick Rose is the future at point guard and the move would allow them to re-sign Ben Gordon (though that ship has probably already sailed).

Hinrich could provide solid leadership in Minnesota. Prior to this year, he has averaged at least 6.0 assists for five consecutive seasons, and if the T-Wolves feel that Foye is really an off guard, then Hinrich should be a nice complement. With a core of Hinrich, Foye, Al Jefferson and Mike Miller (if Minny keeps him), the Timberwolves could be competitive.

29 teams, 36 potential trades for Amare Stoudemire

The NBA trade deadline is Feb. 19, and the biggest name on the trading block is Amare Stoudemire. The Suns appear ready and willing to trade their former 1st Team All-NBA player (against my free, unsolicited advice), so I decided to play along and come up with a potential trade scenario (or two) for just about every team in the league. I’ll go through the league franchise-by-franchise and discuss the chances of each team actually making a play for the 26 year-old All-Star. Each blurb will also contain a link or two – if you click it you can see the trade in the ESPN Trade Machine. (I wore that thing out!)

For the record, I don’t really care where he lands — I’m just happy that the Suns didn’t announce a deal as I was writing this opus. Now that would have been a bummer.

Let’s roll…

Atlanta Hawks
The Hawks are pretty much set at every position except point guard. Mike Bibby’s contract is up this year, so that’s the only hole going into next season. That said, they’d be more likely to offer some combination of forwards than they would Joe Johnson. How about Al Horford (young star), Marvin Williams (young star) and Zaza Pachulia (cap relief)? I don’t think the Hawks would be willing to part with Joe Johnson or Josh Smith.

Boston Celtics
There’s no deal that would work unless the Suns truly covet Rajon Rondo. KG and Paul Pierce are untouchable. Rondo and Ray Allen for Amare and Alando Tucker would work, but since the trade offers no salary cap relief for the Suns, I wouldn’t hold my breath. Besides, if they trade away Ray Ray and Rondo, who’s going to play guard for the C’s?


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Marion for Brad Miller?

The Sacramento Bee is reporting that the Miami Heat have offered Shawn Marion for Brad Miller.

The Heat, numerous league sources said, has had recent talks with the Kings and offered Marion for center Brad Miller and Kenny Thomas. But Miami also wants the Kings to take Marcus Banks, the little-used, sixth-year point guard who has this season and next remaining on his contract for a combined total of $5.1 million.

This rumor supports the theory that the Heat no longer see Carlos Boozer as a good long-term fit due to their opinion that Michael Beasley’s natural position is power forward. Miami needs a point guard and a center, and the 32 year-old Miller (PER: 16.29), still has some gas left in the tank. He is averaging 13.4 points, 9.5 rebounds and 4.0 assists per game in January, and is still one of the best-passing big men in the game, so he would be able to set up Dwyane Wade and Michael Beasley for open shots.

Both Miller and Thomas have salaries that run through the 2009-10 season so this would not affect the team’s plans for the summer of 2010.

Report: Kings fire Reggie Theus

Another one bites the dust.

After a 6-18 start, the Kings are reportedly going to fire Reggie Theus.

Theus is the sixth NBA coach to be fired before Christmas this season, joining Philadelphia’s Maurice Cheeks, Minnesota’s Randy Wittman, Toronto’s Sam Mitchell, Washington’s Eddie Jordan and Oklahoma City’s P.J. Carlesimo.

Assistant coach Kenny Natt will be elevated to interim coach, sources said.

The Kings exceeded most external expectations in 2007-08 with a 39-43 record in Theus’ first season as an NBA head coach following a successful stint coaching New Mexico State.

But Theus’ relationship with management has been strained for months. An upset of the Los Angeles Lakers last Tuesday night without Martin appeared to ease the pressure on Theus, but the calm didn’t last when the Kings were never competitive in a 24-point home loss to the Knicks.

It sounds like it was Theus’ “strained” relationship with management that did him in. After all, he has been without his best player, Kevin Martin, for 15 of his team’s 24 games. If Martin plays, the Kings’ record is almost certainly better.

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