The Bengals’ 31-24 win over the Packers on Sunday is proof that nobody knows what the hell is going on in the NFL. You may have called this upset, but I guarantee you that there was a game on the schedule this week that made you scratch your head.
Cincinnati scored seven points last week. Green Bay’s defense harassed Jay Cutler for four quarters last Sunday night and made him look like a rookie. So it makes sense that this week that the Bengals would roll into Lambeau Field and put 31 points up on the scoreboard.
Wait…what?
Where to begin? Let’s start with the disastrous play of Green Bay’s offensive line. Left tackle Chad Clifton was carted off the field in the first half and the Packers had to bring center Scott Wells into the game. They also slid Jason Spitz to left guard and Daryn Colledge to left tackle, and the changes resulted in Cincinnati racking up six sacks, including five by defensive end Anthony Odom.
Aaron Rodgers did a good job of adjusting to the pressure and scrambling out of the pocket. But he was always on the run, could never set his feet and his receivers didn’t help him by dropping multiple passes throughout the game. (How does Greg Jennings go an entire game without a catch?) If this team doesn’t get their issues resolved on the offensive line, Rodgers doesn’t stand a chance.
Of course, Green Bay’s defense doesn’t get off the hook here. Cedric Benson racked up 141 yards on 29 carries, which set up Carson Palmer and the passing game to make some plays. Outside of a Charles Woodson 37-yard interception return for a touchdown, there’s not much good that came out of this game for Dom Capers’ defense, which had played so well against Chicago the week before.
Somehow, the Packers still had a chance to tie the game with seconds remaining, but a false start penalty (which resulted in a 10-second run off) ended Green Bay’s comeback bid.
As for the Bengals, if they can generate that kind of pressure every week, they’d be in good shape. But I don’t think Odom is going to rack up five sacks every game, so keeping the expectations low for this team would be wise. Still, this was an impressive upset for a team that was devastated at home last week on Brandon Stokley’s fluke last-second touchdown.
The quality isn’t great, but here’s video of Chad Ochocinco doing the “Lambeau Leap” after scoring a touchdown late in the third quarter:
Notable Free Agents: Atari Bigby, S (restricted); Mark Taucher, OT; Michael Montgomery, DE; Colin Cole, DT.
Projected 2009 Cap Space: $18,000,000
Draft Order: 9
Top Needs: OLB, OL, 3-4 defensive linemen.
Offseason Outlook: After hiring Dom Capers to run the defense, the Packers will move to a 3-4 defensive front next season. That means defensive end Aaron Kampman will move to one of the outside linebacker spots, while A.J. Hawk and Nick Barnett will be the team’s starting inside ‘backers. The outside linebacker spot opposite of Kampman will be Brady Poppinga’s to lose, although Green Bay will likely bring in competition to push him for the starting position.
The Packers most pressing need this offseason will be finding D-linemen that can fit the 3-4 defensive front – especially at defensive end. Green Bay is in luck too, because after Julius Peppers (who was franchised by Carolina), the next best defensive ends on the market are Chris Canty (Cowboys) and Igor Olshansky (Chargers) – two relatively young linemen that are used to playing in a 3-4. Either way, they have to address both end positions because neither Michael Montgomery nor Colin Cole are expected to be re-signed and there are serious doubts that former first round pick Justin Harrell can be effective in a 3-4.
Even though they project Ryan Pickett to be the starting nose tackle, the Packers might consider drafting Boston College defensive lineman B.J. Raji, who stands 6’1” and weighs 323 pounds. He has excellent strength, can occupy multiple blockers and could easily play nose in a 3-4 scheme. And considering what the needs are for the teams selecting ahead of Green Bay in the draft, Raji should be available at No. 9.
If the Packers decide to go with Pickett at nose, another option for them in the first round is Florida State defensive end Everette Brown, who is athletic enough to move to outside linebacker in a 3-4. He could immediately challenge Poppinga for the starting outside linebacker position opposite Kampman and hopefully give Green Bay’s pass rush (the Pack finished near the bottom of the league in sacks last year) a major boost.
Sunday’s Best:Giants (10-1) at Redskins (7-4), 1:00 PM ET FOX
The game of the week is a toss up between this matchup and Steelers at Patriots. But I’ll go with a divisional rivalry any day of the week, although Pittsburgh-New England should be just as good. The Cowboys’ victory over the Seahawks on Thanksgiving put a lot of pressure on the Skins to keep pace in the NFC Wild Card race. A win over the G-Men would keep Washington in the thick of things with Dallas, Carolina, Tampa and Atlanta for the Wild Card, while a loss wouldn’t push them out of things, but it certainly would be detrimental. One thing about the Redskins is that they play to the level of their competition. One week they’re losing to the Rams and allowing the Browns to hang with them, the next they’re crushing the Cowboys and Eagles on the road. But the Giants have been one of the best road teams over the last couple years and soundly beat the first place Cardinals last week in Arizona. The G-Men have proven that they’re the best team in the league, but they’re going to have their hands full against a physical Washington team in desperate need of a victory.
Upset Watch:Panthers (8-3) at Packers (5-6), 1:00 PM ET FOX
My pick of the Lions over the Buccaneers last week proved to be a disaster despite Detroit jumping out to a 17-0 lead. Considering the Packers are 3-point favorites, this technically doesn’t count as an upset and less you factor in the records. The Pack were embarrassed last Monday night by New Orleans, but the Panthers haven’t played well in weeks. Jake Delhomme has struggled in the first half of Carolina’s past three games and the once stout Panther defense is coming off a game in which they surrendered 45 points to the Falcons. This is a nice matchup for a struggling Green Bay defense, but they must stop the run. Carolina loves to pound the ball on the ground and if they’re successful, the play action pass opens up with Delhomme and Steve Smith. But if the Packers can sell out to stop the run, their secondary is good enough to at least contain Smith and limit him from making big plays. Aaron Rodgers should have relative success working the ball up the field against an average Carolina secondary, although Ryan Grant must keep them balanced offensively for Green Bay to notch a win and keep their playoff hopes alive.
Intriguing Matchup:Steelers (8-3) at Patriots (7-4), 4:15 PM ET CBS
Could this be a potential playoff preview? Matt Cassel has the Patriots’ offense back on track, but they’ll be tested Sunday against one of the best defenses in the league. It’s doubtful Cassel will be able to throw for over 400 yards for the third connective game, which means Bill Belichick must get his running game going or else Dick Lambeau can dial up plenty of blitzes to get the young signal caller out of rhythm. A win is so important for both teams. A victory for Pittsburgh would keep the Steelers at least one-game above Baltimore in the division, while the Pats need a win to keep pace with the Jets in the AFC East. This should be one of the most physical matchups of the week and I’m willing to bet it will be a low scoring affair.
Other Notable Games: Broncos (6-5) at Jets (8-3), 4:15 PM ET CBS
The Jets are now the talk of the league after they upset the Titans last week, while Denver looks to put its embarrassing loss to the Raiders behind them.
Bears (6-5) at Vikings (6-5), 8:15 PM ET
First place in the NFC North is on the line Sunday night. Since they beat the Vikes earlier this season, Chicago would capture the tiebreaker between these two teams if they can come away with a victory.
Saints (6-5) at Buccaneers (8-3), 1:00 PM ET
A win for New Orleans and we can officially welcome them back to the NFC playoff party. But a loss would essentially put the Saints out of their misery.
Even though the Chicago Bears have been one of the most injury-riddled teams in the NFL this season, it’s staggering how bad the defense has played. Granted, their 37-3 loss to the Packers wasn’t entirely the defense’s fault (Green Bay did score a defensive touchdown), but they certainly deserve most of the blame.
Chicago was absolutely shredded on the ground by Ryan Grant, who rushed for 145 yards on 25 carries, while Brandon Jackson added 50 yards on just 10 carries. If that wasn’t bad enough, the Bears also allowed Aaron Rodgers to throw for 227 yards and two touchdowns.
Again, injuries have ransacked this team, but at some point you can’t use that as an excuse. And it doesn’t matter who’s playing, there’s no excuse for poor tackling. This was a huge divisional game and the Bears allowed the Packers to do whatever they wanted both on the ground and through the air.
It was also amazing to watch the Bears constantly line up in two-tight end formations and still not be able to run the ball. This wasn’t the Minnesota Vikings front seven they were playing – Green Bay has been carved up all year on the ground.
Conversely, this win saved the season for the Packers, at least for the time being. Not only did they beat a division opponent, but the previously surging Vikings lost as well, meaning there’s a three-way tie in the North. The Pack need Grant and the defense to step up every week just as they did on Sunday vs. Chicago.
LT2 did some damage in PPR leagues (with six catches), but he totaled 67 yards on 20 touches and failed to score. After his Week 9 bye, he has four nice matchups over the next six weeks, but that might be too late for his owners to make a run…Reggie Bush (10 touches, 60 yards) is out for the next 3-4 weeks with a meniscus injury in his knee. This is the downside of drafting Bush. Deuce McAllister looks like he will get the bulk of the work in his absence…Chris Johnson (20 touches, 172 yards, TD) and LenDale White (18 touches, 156 yards, 3 TD) both went nuts against the worst rush defense in the league (KC)…Willis McGahee (21 touches, 152 yards, TD) is still RB1 in Baltimore when he can play…Ronnie Brown’s (14 carries, 28 yards) schedule is pretty easy from here on out, so if you might want to buy low after a bad game against the Ravens…Steven Jackson (27 touches, 176 yards, 3 TD) ran like a madman this week. He’s definitely back in must-start territory…Ryan Grant (33 touches, 117 yards, TD) looked pretty good against a very bad Colts rush defense. His schedule isn’t very favorable over the next several weeks, so you might want to think about selling high…Thomas Jones (25 touches, 159 yards) is looking good and he has a favorable upcoming schedule. It might not be a bad idea to try to snatch him away from an unsuspecting owner…Clinton Portis (28 touches, 183 yards, TD) is looking like a top 5 back. He shrugged off a hip flexor to post big numbers against the Browns…Jamal Lewis (20 touches, 98 yards) played better than his stats would indicate. He almost scored on a catch and had a couple of goal line opportunities, but the Browns’ line failed to get the necessary push…Julius Jones (8 touches, 37 yards) and Maurice Morris (8 touches, 68 yards) are back in a timeshare now that Morris is healthy again.
The Cowboys brought them back to earth in Week 3, the Buccaneers physically abused them in Week 4 and the Falcons shocked them in Week 5. Yet after putting together back-to-back wins the last two weeks, the Packers look far from dead in the NFC.
In their latest win on Sunday, Green Bay absolutely crushed Peyton Manning and the Colts 34-14 at Lambeau. Quarterback Aaron Rodgers continues to play well (and continues to out play Brett Favre for those compelled to keep debating that topic) as he completed 21 of 28 passes for 186 yards and a touchdown. He finally got some help from Ryan Grant (105 yards, 1 TD), who had really struggled over the past couple weeks.
Speaking of struggling, after shredding Baltimore’s defense last Sunday, Manning was brutal. He eventually wound up with 229 yards, but he threw two interceptions, both of which Green Bay returned for touchdowns. He also did his best Jake Delhomme impersonation, bitching to the refs after most of his incompletions. Worse yet for the Colts, Rodgers and the Packers did whatever they wanted to the Indy defense.
Nobody is counting the Colts out in the AFC, but with Manning at less than 100%, the defense is going to have to step up and the entire team has to play more consistently.
Sunday’s Best:Colts (3-2) at Packers (3-3), 4:15 PM CBS
There are some brutal matchups this week, so this one wins by default. The Colts will try to carry the momentum from last weeks blowout win against Baltimore into Green Bay this Sunday, but will be without running back Joseph Addai. Dominic Rhodes gets the start, but head coach Tony Dungy has said that Clifton Dawson and Chad Simpson will see some opportunities as well. Peyton Manning played his most complete game of the season last week and might get the opportunity to exploit a banged up Packers’ secondary if Al Harris (spleen) continues to be hobbled (although word is Harris might play). The Packers meanwhile, have not had much success running the ball this year with Ryan Grant, which is unfortunate given that Indy’s main defensive weakness is stopping the run. If Green Bay can’t get the running game going, they’ll again rely on QB Aaron Rodgers to make big plays to wideouts Greg Jennings and Donald Driver in the passing game. This is a huge game for both teams, especially for the Colts considering they’re currently looking up at the 5-0 Titans in the AFC South.
Upset Watch:Jets (3-2) at Raiders (1-4), 4:15 PM CBS
It’s incredibly hard to back the mess that is the Oakland Raiders right now, but they still have a ton of talent on their roster and the Jets have been awfully inconsistent this season. One week they look like playoff contenders and the next they’re getting drummed. Even though they walked away with a victory, New York didn’t play that well against Cincinnati and Brett Favre continues to turn the ball over. The Jets haven’t been able to run the ball successfully of late either, managing just 66 yards per game in the last three weeks. If Oakland is going to pull off a victory in Tom Cable’s home debut, they’ll need to run the ball effectively themselves. Because clearly QB JaMarcus Russell isn’t ready to lead this team on his own yet.
Intriguing Matchup:Cowboys (4-2) at Rams (1-4), 1:00 PM FOX
The biggest question on everyone’s minds (especially fantasy owners) is whether QB Tony Romo will play or not. Despite breaking his pinkie finger in the loss to the Cardinals last week, all indications are that Romo will in fact play. He’ll have a new weapon to throw to in Roy Williams, who the team recently acquired from Detroit at the trade deadline. But not only will it be interesting to see how effective Romo can be with a broken finger, it’ll also be intriguing to watch the many personalities the ‘Boys have on offense now that Williams and T.O. have to share looks in the passing game. Dallas has not played well since their Sunday night win against the Packers early in the year and the Rams proved last week in a win over the Redskins that they won’t be pushovers now that Jim Haslett is running things.
Other Notable Games: Saints (3-3) at Panthers (4-2), 1:00 PM ET FOX
While everyone is focusing on the East being the best division in the NFC, the South doesn’t have any teams below .500 right now. Some still believe the Saints are the best team in the division and they’ll get the opportunity to prove it this week in Carolina.
Browns (2-3) at Redskins (4-2), 4:15 PM ET CBS
What was the bigger fluke from Week 6 – the Browns beating the Giants or the Redskins losing to the Rams?
Titans (5-0) at Chiefs (1-4), 1:00 PM ET CBS
The Titans get to put their undefeated record on the line this week in Kansas City and fortunately for them the Larry Johnson-less Chiefs shouldn’t provide much of a challenge.
Almost every time running back Ryan Grant got into the secondary and faced a safety or cornerback one-on-one last year, he won the matchup and went on for a big gain.
This year, Grant isn’t winning those matchups. He had one with Atlanta safety Lawyer Milloy on Sunday and Milloy took him down easily after a 14-yard gain.
“That should have been a touchdown,” Grant said. “If I have a guy one-on-one, that should be a touchdown. That’s how I look at it.”
I’ve watched just about every Green Bay snap this season, and it seems to me that it’s not so much that Grant is losing these matchups as much as he’s not getting as many opportunities to reach the third level of the defense. He’s averaging 3.7 ypc in 2008 after averaging 5.1 ypc last season. Some of this has to do with the lack of the big runs that Silverstein is talking about, but I think it has more to do with the fact that the offensive line just isn’t run blocking like they were last season.
Regardless of the cause of Grant’s struggles, this week’s game against the Seahawks will be a good barometer of the Green Bay running game. Seattle is 24th against the run, allowing 130 yards per game on the ground (and 4.6 ypc). If Grant doesn’t manage to at least hit the 4.2 or 4.3 ypc mark, it might be time to get worried.
Now that we’re a quarter the way through the fantasy football season, some owners are wondering if it’s time to start benching their early round picks or if it’s appropriate to cut bait on a disappointing middle-round pick. Here is a list of 20 disappointing fantasy players, along with my take on their prospects over the next four games.
I’ve included the player’s Antsports ADP in parenthesis (for the month of August) along with their drafted and current rankings within their position.
1. Randy Moss (1.08) Drafted: WR1
Currently: WR43
There’s no doubt that the loss of Tom Brady for the season has had a significant impact on Moss’ performance and prospects. He was a stud, but now there are owners who are (justifiably) starting to bench him for better options. He is averaging three catches for 24 yards and zero TD in the two games that Matt Cassel has started. The upcoming schedule (SF, SD, DEN and STL) looks pretty good from a matchup standpoint, and it seems like the bye week would be a good opportunity for Bill Belichick and Co. to figure out a way to use their most dynamic weapon. Unless you have a clearly better option, Moss is still worth starting. VERDICT: START
2. Braylon Edwards (2.05) Drafted: WR4
Currently: WR57
Edwards has looked out of it from the start, dropping a few balls against the Cowboys in Week 1. Through four games, he’s averaging 2.8 catches for 24 yards and 0.3 TD. He did catch a TD in Week 4 and his schedule gets a little easier over the next two weeks with the Giants and the Redskins, two teams that have allowed plenty of fantasy points to wideouts this season. Like Moss, unless you have a clearly better option, Edwards is still worth the start, though he’s on bye this week. VERDICT: START
The Buccaneers won for the third straight week, beating the Packers 30-21 in Tampa Bay on Sunday. Ernest Graham rushed for 111 yards and added a touchdown with only two minutes remaining in the fourth quarter to put the game away.
The Bucs flustered Green Bay QB Aaron Rodgers all game and forced the first-year starter into three interceptions. The most crucial turnover came with just over two minutes to play and the Packers down 21-20. Rodgers took a massive hit in pocket, which forced his pass intended for Donald Driver to float and was intercepted by DE Gaines Adams.
The biggest issue right now for the Packers is the lack of a running game. In back to back losses the past two weeks, Ryan Grant (20 rush yards) has been a ghost. Whether the offensive line is failing to open holes or Grant has just been that ineffective, the Packers’ running game has been nonexistent. And Rodgers has suffered because of it as defenses don’t have to honor the run and are sending extra rushers.
For Tampa, Brian Greise (15 of 30, 149 yards, 1 TD, 3 INTs) wasn’t as good as he was last week in Chicago, but Graham and Warrick Dunn picked up the slack. And since losing their opener to the Saints in New Orleans, the Bucs’ defense has been fantastic. They’ve done a great job taking away opponents’ running games and overall, Monte Kiffin’s unit has played incredibly physical. With the Bucs and Panthers both at 3-1 and the Falcons and Saints at 2-2, the NFC South looks like a better division than what most expected.
