Trade Deadline Recap: This Season’s Five Biggest Deals
The bell tolled another trade deadline come and gone on Tuesday afternoon. In the wake of talk about the effect of new wild card rules on the trade market, and some grand speculation in both directions, some big names, and some big players too, will be wearing new jerseys for the rest of the season. Unfortunately for the New York Yankees, the two aren’t mutually exclusive. Just a few years ago, their trade for Ichiro Suzuki would’ve deserved its own full post. But it’s 2012, and instead, it’ll only get these couple sentences. Here are the five trades likely to have the biggest impact on the season moving forward:
5. Omar Infante and Anibal Sanchez to the Detroit Tigers
For the Detroit Tigers, it’s now or never. The team has made it no secret that they are done saying “next year,” and little has made that strategy so abundantly clear as trading the team’s top pitching prospect in Jacob Turner to the Marlins for Infante and Sanchez. Currently three games behind the Chicago White Sox in a tight race for the AL Central crown, their two newest faces fill two big holes: second base and the middle of its rotation. We’ll have to wait and see how Sanchez performs and Turner Develops to know which team got the better deal long term. But Infante and Sanchez will do more for the team right now, and that’s all there is for the Tigers.
4. Hunter Pence to the San Francisco Giants
The Giants are just one game up over the Dodgers in the NL West, and given all the moves LA has been making (discussed below), San Fran had to come up with some sort of counter. What they came up with is two-time all-star Hunter Pence, who’s hitting .271 with 17 homers and 59 RBI this year. In return, the team shipped Tommy Joseph, Nate Schierholtz, and Seth Rosin to Philadelphia. Joseph, a catcher who was one of the team’s best two or three prospects depending on who you asked, is the centerpiece of the deal. The Giants were willing to let him go for Pence, perhaps because they’ve already got Buster Posey behind the plate. After giving up one of their top pitching prospects to rent Carlos Beltran last year, it’s notable that the Giants secured Pence, who’s under contract through 2013. He’s not going to hit as many home runs as he did in Citizens Bank Park, but Pence will be a very important part of the lineup for more than just a few months.
3. Ryan Dempster to the Texas Rangers
The Angels and Dodgers were the deadline’s biggest movers and shakers, so like the Giants, the Rangers had to come up with something to better their squad for the playoff race to come. Dempster may be 35 years old, and while his 2.25 ERA and 1.04 WHIP are certainly well above the general expectation, the numbers aren’t a total anomaly. Recall that in 2008 he went 17-6 with a 2.96 ERA and 1.21 WHIP over more than 200 innings. Although 15 years in the bigs, it’s Dempster’s first time in the American League, and his 4.63 ERA in 50 career interleague games aren’t exactly a bright spot, they needed someone to fill the hole injuries have made in their rotation. He’s no Zach Greinke, but Dempster will be a big factor if the team hopes to reach the World Series for the third straight season.
2. Hanley Ramirez to the Los Angeles Dodgers
If this was a list of the trades likely to have the biggest impact over the next few years, as opposed to just this season, this one might’ve been at the top of the list. Ramirez might be having a down year (or two) by his standards, hitting .246 with 15 home runs and 56 RBI. And sure, it’s been a little while since 2009, when he hit .342 and brought home a battle title, or his 30/30 campaign in 2008. But Ramirez is coming off an injury and more importantly, he’s still only 28 years old, smack dab in the middle of his statistical prime. Considering the Dodgers gave up very little to get him and also scored Shane Victorino, they might just be the season’s biggest trade deadline winner.
1. Zach Greinke to the Los Angeles Angels
As I said, long term, Greinke moving to the Angels might not be that huge. Who knows where he’ll end up when he becomes a free agent this off season. But with the spot the Angels are in right now, his move to LA is the deadline’s biggest. It’s no surprise that like the Giants and Dodgers, both the Angels and Rangers are on this list. Arguably two of the three best teams in the American League reside in the Western division, and as I discussed last week, playoff spots are no longer created equal. Yes, the Dodgers are in a similar position, and yes, the Rangers made a similar move, but the Angels now have Greinke, who was indubitably the best starting pitcher on the market, to shore up a rotation that already includes Jered Weaver, C.J. Wilson, Dan Haren, and Ervin Santana. Pitching is the name of the game when it comes to the playoffs to begin with. But what’s crucial for the Halos is that even if they do find themselves forced to employ Weaver in a wild card play-in, they’re not so screwed as most other teams might be with a gang like that to follow him.
Follow the writer on Twitter @NateKreichman.
Posted in: MLB
Tags: Anibal Sanchez, Buster Posey, C.J. Wilson, Dan Haren, Detroit Tigers, Ervin Santana, Hanley Ramirez, Hunter Pence, Ichiro Suzuki, Jacob Turner, Jered Weaver, Los Angeles Angels, Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB, Nate Schierholtz, New York Yankees, Omar Infante, Philadelphia Phillies, Ryan Dempster, San Francisco Giants, Seth Rosin, Shane Victorino, Texas Rangers, Tommy Joseph, Trade Deadline, trades, Zach Greinke
New Rules and The Five Best Players on the Trade Market
The MLB trade deadline is a mere two weeks away. But so far, as a result of stipulations sprouting from the league’s most recent collective bargaining agreement, including the addition of an extra wild card spot in each league, the market has been quiet, too quiet. As one baseball executive told Yahoo’s Jeff Passan, “we’re all waiting for somebody else to make the first move.”
With that second wild card spot looming large, a lot more teams consider themselves contenders at this point in the season than would in years past. Eleven of the 14 American League squads are within two games of a playoff spot, and half of the NL’s 16 teams are within three.
What effect the surge in contenders will have on trade activity remains to be seen. When just about everybody thinks they have a shot at the playoffs, a lot of teams that might have been content to coast along become buyers. Just look to the Miami Marlins for your case in point. Despite currently being three games under .500, six back from that final playoff spot, and towards the bottom of the barrel in runs (28th), average (24th), on-base percentage (23rd), and slugging (23rd), they sent two prospects to the Astros for Carlos Lee. But just as many would-be sellers may be more inclined to hold on to their stars and see what comes of it.
Then there’s the new rules regarding compensatory draft picks to consider. In the past, a team that traded for a big name in his contract year knew that even if they couldn’t resign him in the offseason, they’d at least get an early draft pick for their troubles. Take the 2004 Carlos Beltran trade for example. The Astros weren’t able to sign him in the offseason, but they did get a pick in the supplemental first round of the 2005 draft (38th overall). If that trade happened today, they’d get no such selection. Teams will now only be compensated for players lost in free agency if they plays for that team the entire season, so a rental really is just a rental. Even if a player does stay in the same place all year, teams will only get draft compensation for a lost free agent if they tender him a “qualifying offer,” which is a one-year deal worth the average of the league’s top 125 salaries, or around $12.5 million.
All this means that even the best players on the trade market likely won’t command as much in return as they would have just last year. But at this point, the few teams that are looking to sell haven’t adjusted their expectations to match the new rules, which has contributed to the gridlock. However, as we get closer to the July 31 deadline, both buyers and sellers will get desperate, and the market is sure to heat up. As such, let’s countdown the five best players that just might find themselves in a new uniform come August.
5. Carlos Quentin, OF, San Diego Padres
This spot could just as easily have gone to Cubs’ righty Matt Garza, but there’s a dearth of hitting on the market this year, so Quentin’s value is skewed upward. Plus, I’m on a roll talking about guys named Carlos. Anyway, Quentin is currently hitting .266 with eight home runs and 21 RBI. Don’t discount him for that RBI total though, Quentin missed the first few weeks of the season due to injury and is the lone bright spot in perhaps the league’s worst offensive lineup (the Padres are dead last in runs and slugging, 27th in average, and 25th in OBP). More important than any of those stats is Quentin’s.391 on-base percentage.
CBS Sports’ Jon Heyman reported that at least four teams, Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, Cleveland, and Miami, have expressed interest in Quentin, although it’s uncertain whether the Marlins are still in the running following the Lee acquisition. Additionally, the Tigers and Blue Jays were once believed to be targeting him, but that may no longer be the case.
4. Ryan Dempster, SP, Chicago Cubs
With a record of 36-52, which has them 13.5 games behind in the NL Central, the Cubs are one of the few definitive sellers in the league. The 35 year-old Dempster has made 14 starts this year and has a record of 5-3, a 1.02 WHIP and a major league best 1.86 ERA. Plus, after throwing six shutout innings in a win against the Reds on Friday, Dempster has now gone 33 straight innings without giving up a run. That’s the longest scoreless innings streak for a Cubs pitcher since 1969 and is the longest in the majors this season. Orel Hershiser owns the record for the longest such streak, the righty pitched 59 consecutive scoreless innings in 1988.
The Sporting News reported that as many as ten teams (including the Braves, Red Sox, White Sox, Indians, Tigers, Dodgers, Yankess, and Nationals) have expressed interest in Dempster, and that a deal could be imminent. On Monday, ESPN’s Buster Olney tweeted that the Red Sox have been Dempster’s most agressive suitors.
3. Justin Upton, OF, Arizona Diamondbacks
Upton is a two-time all-star and finished fourth in the NL MVP voting last season after hitting .289 with 31 home runs, 88 RBI, and 21 stolen bases. The 24 year-old outfielder’s numbers have dropped off this season, but given his youth and upside, he’s one of the deadline’s hottest commodities. Yesterday, Paul Swydan of Fangraphs discussed just how rare it is for a player who’s had as much success as Upton has at such a young age to be traded. Nonetheless, Diamondbacks GM Kevin Towers has stated publicly that he’s open to discussions.
The Pirates, Braves, and Rangers have all expressed interest in Upton. On Monday, Fox Sport’s Ken Rosenthal reported that if he so desired, the young slugger could use his no-trade clause to prevent being dealt to four teams: the Yankees, Red Sox, Indians, and Cubs.
2. Zack Greinke, SP, Milwaukee Brewers
Greinke is having one of the best seasons of his career, the 28 year-old righty is 9-3 with a 3.57 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, and 117 strikeouts in 116 innings pitched. A bad month of July and a recent announcement that he’ll be given 10 days of rest before his next start, which is now scheduled for July 24, might make some less willing to make a deal. However, a number of teams, including the White Sox and Angels have expressed interest. And why not? Greinke is the best pitcher on the market, bar one, and is smack dab in the middle of his prime. Jon Heyman reported that the Brewers were ready to offer Greinke a five-year deal worth $100 million, but were skeptical that he would accept their bid mid-season and forgo a run on the open market. If they don’t think they can resign him, it might be in the Brewers’ best interest to make a deal, considering their 42-47 record, which has them eight games back in the NL Central. The team will surely be weighing all possibilities: resigning, losing him in free agency and getting some compensatory draft picks, or making a trade for prospects.
1. Cole Hamels, SP, Philadelphia Phillies
Who else could be number one? This year, Hamels is 11-4 with a 3.07 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, and 125 strikeouts in 126 innings. Hamels’ situation is near identical to Greinke’s, only the stats are better and the financial numbers are bigger. The Phillies are prepared to offer the 28 year-old lefty a five-year deal worth $120 million, but like Greinke, it’s doubtful Hamels accept anything midseason and forgo a chance to test the waters of free agency, where he will command big money, like $25 mil a year big.
Scouts from seven different teams were on hand to see Hamels pitch an eight inning, six hit, one run gem in Denver on Sunday. The teams represented were the Rangers, Pirates, Tigers, Marlins, Dodgers, Giants, and Angels. But the same day, Jon Heyman listed ten teams that wanted to be Cole-powered. Four of them (Texas, Detroit, and both LA teams) were among those that sent Scouts to Colorado, but Heyman also included the White Sox, Red Sox, Braves, Orioles, Yankees, and Blue Jays in the list of Hamels’ potential suitors. So between those two reports, 13 teams, or nearly half the league, has expressed interest in acquiring the Phillies’ ace. It’s going to be an interesting two weeks.
Follow the writer on Twitter @NateKreichman.
Posted in: MLB
Tags: Carlos Beltran, Carlos Lee, Carlos Quentin, Cole Hamels, collective bargaining agreement, Justin Upton, Matt Garza, MLB, Orel Hershiser, Ryan Dempster, Trade Deadline, Zack Greinke
2010 MLB Preview: NL Central
In order to help get you ready for the MLB season, we’re doing division-by-division rankings with quick overviews on how each club could fair in 2010. Next to each team, you’ll also find a corresponding number written in parenthesis, which indicates where we believe that club falls in a league-wide power ranking. Be sure to check back throughout the next two weeks leading up to the season, as we will be updating our content daily. Enjoy.
All 2010 MLB Preview Content | AL East Preview | AL Central Preview | AL West Preview | NL East | NL Central | NL West
Next up is the NL Central.
1. St. Louis Cardinals (4)
Albert Pujols, Chris Carpenter, Adam Wainwright and Matt Holliday could help the Cardinals win this division sauced out of their minds on a nightly basis. That said, would anyone really be surprised if Carpenter’s arm falls off and the starting pitching (which is among the best in the league) suffers? It’s happened before, so if you answered “yes” to the proposed question then you sir or madam, have not been paying attention. Still, the addition of Brad Penny (who pitched well in the second half last year) will strengthen the club’s starting pitching and Kyle Lohse is a fine middle of the rotation guy. Pujols and Holliday will ignite the offense again, although Colby Rasmus might be the key to whether or not this team makes a serious World Series run. Skip Schumaker is a solid table setter, but how Rasmus fairs hitting in front of Pujols and Holliday could be the difference between the Cards winning the NL Central again and playing for a championship. David Freese better produce too or else the club will regret not acquiring a veteran third baseman in the offseason. All in all, the Cardinals are the best the NL Central has to offer and should make another postseason appearance this season. But how far they go beyond that depends on whether or not Carpenter and Wainwright can continue their magic and if Pujols and Holliday receive help from the rest of the lineup.
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Tags: 2010 MLB Predictions, 2010 MLB Preview, Aaron Harang, Adam Wainwright, Albert Pujols, Alfonso Soriano, Andrew McCutchen, Anthony Stalter, Aramis Ramirez, Aroldis Chapman, Brandon Phillips, Bronson Arroyo, Carlos Lee, Carlos Marmol, Carlos Zambrano, Chicago Cubs, Chris Carpenter, Cincinnati Reds, Colby Rasmus, David Freese, Dusty Baker, Edison Volquez, Geovany Soto, Homer Bailey, Houston Astros, Hunter Pence, Jay Bruce, Jeff Suppan, Joey Votto, Johnny Cueto, Jose Tabata, JR Towles, Kazuo Matsui, Kosuke Fukudome, Lance Berkman, Manny Parra, Mat Gamel, Matt Holliday, Michael Bourn, Milwaukee Brewers, Paul Maholm, Pedro Alvarez, Pedro Feliz, Pittsburgh Pirates, Prince Fielder, Ross Ohlendorf, Ryan Braun, Ryan Dempster, Skip Schumaker, St. Louis Cardinals, Ted Lilly, Tony Sanchez, Yovani Gallardo, Zach Duke
Will the Brewers pull off a trade for Peavy?
Last season, the Brewers pulled off the biggest trade of the year in sending top prospect Matt LaPorta to the Indians in exchange for ace CC Sabathia. The trade catapulted Milwaukee into the postseason, even though it eventually led to them being bounced by the Phillies in the NLDS.
Fast forward to this season where the Brewers are currently in a first place tie with the Cardinals and at least one Milwaukee columnist thinks that the Brew Crew could once again swing a deal for a stud pitcher to lead them back into the postseason.
Whether the Brewers could come up with the players it would take to do such a deal is debatable. General manager Doug Melvin has said he has no inclination to trade his top two prospects, third baseman Mat Gamel and shortstop Alcides Escobar.
But keep in mind this regime has shown it will think out of the box. The Brewers did so when they traded top prospect Matt LaPorta and others for Sabathia, shocking the rest of the baseball world.
This is a team that fired manager Ned Yost with 12 games to go last season over fears he was making the team too tight and a team that offered Sabathia $100 million to stay before the Yankees blew that offer out of the water.
After watching the bench struggle for more than a month this season, a series of moves was made, signing veteran Frank Catalanotto to a minor-league deal, summoning Gamel to the majors and trading for San Diego outfielder Jody Gerut. More proactive moves from a proactive regime.
Rest assured that internal discussions about Peavy already have been held in the Brewers’ offices. You can bet closer Trevor Hoffman has told his former teammate about the close-knit clubhouse. Word has it that Ryan Braun and Peavy even exchange e-mails.
Perhaps the Brewers’ biggest competition for Peavy (presuming of course that Milwaukee is seriously interested in the San Diego starter) will be the Cubs, who were hot after Peavy this offseason before eventually walking away from negotiations. Rich Harden was just placed on the disabled list with back problems and ace Carlos Zambrano has already paid a visit to the DL once this year.
But the problem with assuming the Cubs are still interested in Peavy is that they desperately need a bat more than another arm. This is a club marred in a seven game losing streak in which they’ve averaged less than 1.5 runs per game in that span. Plus, truth be told, the Cubs’ pitching staff has been pretty good as is, getting quality outings from Ted Lilly (who has been their most reliable starter so far), Ryan Dempster and even Randy Wells, who has been solid filling in for injured starters. Would the Cubs be more inclined to deal for another pitcher rather than a much-needed bat? It’s possible, but unlikely.
That said, the Brewers could have a clear path to Peavy if they could put a decent trade package together on their end. With their lineup, Peavy could possibly give Milwaukee a significant edge over the Cards and Cubs in the NL Central.
2009 MLB Preview: #4 Chicago Cubs
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Offseason Movement: The Cubs were seemingly hosed by the Indians in a trade that sent ultra-utility player Mark DeRosa to Cleveland in exchange for minor league pitching prospects Jeff Stevens, Chris Archer and John Gaub, none of which were viewed as top 10 prospects in the Tribe’s organization. But maybe one of those youngsters will emerge as a quality arm down the road and DeRosa’s contract does expire at the end of the season so at least the Cubs got something for him. Chicago also added volatile outfielder Milton Bradley, reliever Kevin Gregg and pitcher Aaron Heilman, who will move to the bullpen after losing out to Sean Marshall this spring for the Cubs’ fifth spot in the rotation.
Top Prospect: Josh Vitters, 3B
This club is loaded with quality prospects, including reliever Jeff Samardzija, shortstop Ryan Flaherty and outfielder Tyler Colvin. But Vitters appears to be the best of group, with his excellent plate approach, outstanding hand-eye coordination and natural swing. Thus far in Single-A, Vitters is hitting .357 and slugging .529 in 70 at bats. At only 19, he still has a ways to go before he’ll make his big league debut, but Vitters appears to have quite a future ahead of him.
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Tags: 2009 MLB Predictions, 2009 MLB Preview, Aaron Heilman, Alfonso Soriano, Angel Guzman, Aramis Ramirez, Bob Howry, Carlos Marmol, Carlos Zambrano, Chad Gaudin, Chris Archer, Geovany Soto, Jeff Samardzija, Jeff Stevens, John Gaub, Josh Vitters, Kerry Wood, Kevin Gregg, Lou Piniella, Luis Vizcaino, Mark DeRosa, Milton Bradley, MLB Preview 2009, NL Central Predictions, Rich Harden, Ryan Dempster, Ryan Flaherty, Tyer Colvin