Now that the top 10 NBA free agents have made up their minds, let’s check in with my list of ‘sure-to-be-wrong’ predictions and see how I fared.

1. Dwyane Wade will re-sign with the Heat.
Check.

2. Chris Bosh will also sign with Miami.
Check.

3. LeBron and Carlos Boozer will sign with Chicago.
I didn’t think that LeBron would join what many consider to be ‘Wade’s Team’ and the Bulls gave him the next-best chance to win a championship, especially if Boozer landed there as well. The Bulls were wise to grab Boozer, who is a very nice fit alongside Joakim Noah.

4. Joe Johnson will sign with the Clippers.
I bought into the report that Johnson was in L.A. leading up to free agency and that he had a good relationship with the Clippers’ GM. The Hawks shocked the league when they offered him a six-year max contract and methinks they’ll be regretting it in 2-3 years. Who would have thought that when everything was said and done, that Joe Johnson would get the biggest contract of this free agent class?

5. Stoudemire will land in the Big Apple.
…”the Knicks will be sure to throw gobs of money to save face after pretty much striking out on the other top free agents.” Yeah, that’s pretty much what happened, though the Knicks were proactive and signed Stoudemire before being shunned by LeBron and Wade. And Amare was happy to lap up the dough after the Suns wanted to negotiate a deal that included incentives related to his health.

6. The Knicks will re-sign David Lee.
Donnie Walsh elected to conserve most of his cap space so that the Knicks can be a player in next summer’s free agency, plus the Lee-for-Randolph trade gives the Knicks a good (and cheap) up-and-coming power forward to replace Lee.

7. The Knicks will trade Eddy Curry for Gilbert Arenas.
This could still happen, but it looks like it won’t, at least not now. The Lee trade signals that the Knicks are going to be careful with their cap space, and trading for Arenas would be a huge risk.

8. The Grizzlies will match a max offer for Rudy Gay.
Technically, this prediction wasn’t correct. The Grizzlies once again raised eyebrows around the league by signing Gay to a max contract without letting the market set his price.

9. Dirk Nowitzki and Paul Pierce re-sign with the Mavs and C’s, respectively.
There were pundits out there that actually thought that Pierce could land with the Nets and that Nowitzki would join LeBron in Chicago, but Boston and Dallas made sure these players stayed put.

Overall, I didn’t do too badly, did I?

Panic has set in in Memphis, as the Grizzlies have agreed to a five-year extension for Rudy Gay without letting the restricted free agent test the market.

The Memphis Grizzlies and restricted free-agent Rudy Gay have agreed in principle on a five-year contract, The Commercial Appeal has learned.

NBA sources indicated that Gay will sign the deal on or soon after July 8 when teams are allowed to finalize contracts.

Gay’s starting salary will be the maximum allowed a player with his experience – projected to be roughly $13.3 million – according to sources.

I highlighted the key part in bold. The Grizzlies waited all this time, said over and over that they’d match any offer he received, and then they turned around and gave him a max deal before he had a chance to sign an offer sheet.

Why not let Gay go out and negotiate a deal and then match it? Why agree to pay him the max when there’s no proof that he’d get a max offer?

Yes, he was likely to get a big offer, and perhaps the Grizzlies just wanted to be proactive and keep one of their star players happy. But by making this deal, they may have cost themselves millions of dollars. Rudy Gay is no ‘max’ player, at least not at this stage of his career.

But he’s about to make max money.

Photo from fOTOGLIF

Per the Pioneer Press…

Gay and Lee will make visits this week to the Twin Cities to see what the Wolves have to offer, which includes about $20 million in salary cap space. Gay will arrive today and stay through the middle of Friday, followed by an all-day visit Saturday with Lee, according to Wolves president of basketball operations David Kahn.

“Those are the only two people I anticipated calling today,” Kahn said in a conference call late Wednesday after free agency began at 11:01 p.m. “That doesn’t mean that we may not ask others to come in, but they clearly were the two players I felt we wanted to meet and wanted to get to know better and have an opportunity to have a dialogue with.”

Kahn apparently thinks that Lee can play with Kevin Love, which is not unlike trying to play Ricky Rubio and Jonny Flynn together. Rudy Gay and Wes Johnson are also a curious fit. But Kahn has proven that he is a curious general manager.

One thing is for certain — the T-Wolves’ cap space (~$20 million) won’t be enough to sign both players, so they would have to work out a sign-and-trade with the Knicks or Grizzlies.

Here’s where I stop ruminating about rumors and pose a few predictions about what will happen in the NBA over the next couple of weeks. Let’s start with a near-sure thing and work our way around the league.

1. Dwyane Wade will re-sign with the Heat.
He has said all along that Miami is where he wants to be, and even if he strikes out on getting LeBron and/or Chris Bosh to join him, he won’t have a tough time recruiting a couple of other high-priced free agents to join him. Whether it’s Carlos Boozer, Amare Stoudemire, Joe Johnson or Rudy Gay, someone will want to play in sunny South Florida with a Top 5 player who has already proven he can take over an NBA Finals.

2. Chris Bosh will also sign with Miami.
I thought the Bulls might have inside track on Bosh, but if we’re to believe Dan LeBatard, a deal is already in place that would bring Bosh to Miami. Even if LeBron doesn’t join them, Bosh and Wade will make an excellent one-two punch.

3. LeBron and Carlos Boozer will sign with Chicago.
It’s the reunion that no one was expecting. I have no earthly idea what LeBron is going to do, but he says that winning is the most important thing, so if that’s true, he’ll either sign with the Bulls or join Wade and Bosh in Miami. With his ego, I think he’d rather play in Chicago in the shadow of Michael Jordan’s legacy than join ‘Wade’s team’ in South Florida. But who really knows? (Remember, I said these were sure-to-be-wrong predictions.) As for Boozer, if the Bulls strike out on Bosh, he’s the next-best fit at the four. The Bulls could take advantage of his strengths (low-post scoring, rebounding) while Joakim Noah could hide his weaknesses (post defense).

4. Joe Johnson will sign with the Clippers.
Think about it Knick fans — would you want to play under the NY microscope after the city missed out on the big-name free agents? Expectations are so high in the Big Apple and Johnson is a quiet guy that has proven in Atlanta that he doesn’t deal well with critical fans. He’s reportedly close with Clipper GM Neil Olshey and would be a nice fit there since he can play small forward alongside Eric Gordon on the wing.

5. Stoudemire will land in the Big Apple.
I almost wrote “land in New Jersey” but I didn’t want to send any Knick fans off the edge of the Brooklyn Bridge. If predictions #1-#4 come to fruition, the Knicks won’t be a very attractive place to play, but Stoudemire thrived under Mike D’Antoni in Phoenix and the Knicks will be sure to throw gobs of money to save face after pretty much striking out on the other top free agents. D’Antoni can run Stoudemire at the five and…

6. The Knicks will re-sign David Lee…
…to play the four. They’ll be defensively challenged, but that’s life. Then…

7. The Knicks will trade Eddy Curry for Gilbert Arenas…
…which will make them even more defensively challenged, but again, that’s life. At least the Knicks will be fun to watch.

8. The Grizzlies will match a max offer for Rudy Gay.
The Nets (and maybe the T-Wolves) will make a strong run at Rudy Gay, but the Grizzlies’ owner Michael Heisley has said all along that he’ll match any offer Gay gets in free agency.

9. Dirk Nowitzki and Paul Pierce re-sign with the Mavs and C’s, respectively.
These guys aren’t going anywhere.

Photo from fOTOGLIF

In the first installment of this series, I covered the biggest names in this summer’s free agency bonanza, and it wasn’t too tough to try to peg down each player’s value. Now I’ll move onto #6 to #10 in my free agency rankings, and things get a little tougher.

Keep in mind that the “value” below each player’s blurb represents my prediction of what they’ll eventually sign for, not what I think they’re actually worth. But there’s a saying — something’s only worth what someone will pay for it — so there’s that.

Anyway, let’s jump right in:

6. Joe Johnson, SG
Age: 29
PER: 19.33
Comparables: Brandon Roy ($13.5 M), Andre Iguodala ($12.3 M), Kevin Martin ($10.6 M)
Johnson didn’t help himself much with a pretty miserable series against the Magic in the Eastern Conference Semifinals. I’m sure he’s looking for a max deal, and whatever team gives him one may regret it in a year or two. He’s already 29, and while he’d definitely be a good #2 for the next 2-3 years, he’s not a “max” player. He’s definitely going to benefit from all the cap space that’s available. Remember, my estimated value is what someone is willing to pay him, not necessarily what he’s worth.
Value: $17.0-$17.5 M per year (over five years)

7. Carlos Boozer, PF
Age: 28
PER: 21.42
Comparables: Amare Stoudemire ($17.7 M), Zach Randolph ($17.3 M), Josh Smith ($11.6 M), David West ($9.0 M), LaMarcus Aldridge ($10.7 M)
I have Boozer ranked ahead of Lee because he’s a slightly better player…when he’s healthy. He missed 45 games during the 2008-07 season and another 80 games from 2004-2006, so clearly he’s an injury risk. He is no doubt looking for a max or near-max deal, but with his durability issues and his reputation for being a less than stellar defender, he may find the going a bit tough in free agency. Still, there is sooooo much cap space out there that it’s hard to see him signing a deal for much less than the max.
Value: $14.0-$15.0 M per year (over five years)

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Ronald Tillery of the Commercial-Appeal thinks so…

One team that will make a strong run at Gay is the Minnesota Timberwolves. Team owner Glen Taylor and president of basketball operations David Kahn have already targeted Gay as an attainable player to uplift the struggling franchise.

Griz owner Michael Heisley continues to insist that Gay will be a Grizzly next season. Memphis (namely Heisley) has the right to match any offer sheet that is presented to Gay from another team.

Gay would be a nice fit in Minnesota who could use his scoring on the wing. Neither Kevin Love nor Al Jefferson are terribly athletic, so Gay would help bolster the Minnesota front line. I am sure that David Kahn is envisioning Ricky Rubio feeding the ball to Gay on the break in two years.

But when the owner insists he’s going to match any offer for one of his restricted agents, it’s usually a good sign that it’s going to happen. He holds the purse strings, so he can spend whatever he wants to retain Gay. The Grizzlies can sit back, wait for Gay to work out a deal with another team, and then match it. Memphis has an advantage over, say, the Knicks, who hope to land LeBron James, Dwyane Wade and/or Chris Bosh. But if a team makes David Lee a “take it or leave it” offer on July 1, the Knicks may not have much time to beat it since they’ll be waiting on answers from LeBron and Co.

Gay is not a “max” player, but there’s a good chance that he gets a max deal, or at least a maximum offer from a team who doesn’t hold his Bird rights. This may help the Grizzlies a little bit because they won’t be on the hook for that extra year and the additional $30 million.

Gay is a nice player — he averaged 20-6-2, 47% FG, 33% 3PT — but he’s not a max guy. Chances are that whoever ultimately signs him this summer will have to overspend for his services, especially with so much cap space floating around.

Photo from fOTOGLIF

Carlos Boozer thinks so, per the South Florida Sun-Sentinel…

“The summer is going to get kicked off in free agency wherever LeBron goes,” Boozer said. “Once he decides what he’s going to do for the rest of his career, it will be easy for the rest of us to figure out what we’re going to do.”

Since LeBron pretty much has his pick of teams, will he make his decision quickly so that free agency can get moving or will he hold the entire league hostage, basking in his own ego all of the attention?

I wouldn’t be surprised if some of the second-tier free agents — think David Lee or Rudy Gay — sign quickly if LeBron drags his feet and they’re made “an offer they can’t refuse” by a team that knows they’re not a player in the LeBron sweepstakes.

Side note: Does Boozer regret leaving Cleveland? Had he stayed, there’s a pretty good chance that the Cavs have a title by now…right?


Photo from fOTOGLIF

…and it’s quite a bit higher than originally projected.

The New York Knicks and other teams hoarding salary-cap space got some good news Friday when they were told at the league’s Board of Governors meeting that the projected 2010-11 salary cap will be $56.1 million.

That figure was $2 million to $3 million more than most teams had been expecting, and for the Knicks it ensures they have enough cap space this summer to sign two maximum-salary free agents.

Other teams that will be positively affected by Friday’s news include the Nets, Heat, Wizards, Bulls, Clippers and Timberwolves.

The NBA warned that the cap number might be as low as $50 million to $53 million, so this is good news for all the teams looking to cash in their cap space for a good free agent or two this summer. Check that — since they’re all way under the cap, it really doesn’t matter to those teams. It’s great news for the players, who will now find that there are now nine teams with at least $14 million in cap space heading into this summer. In essence, that’s an extra $22.5 million for just those nine teams. That list includes three playoff teams — Miami ($43.6 M, assuming Wade opts out), Chicago ($20.5 M) and Oklahoma City ($14.0 M).

This news may not matter much to big name free agents like LeBron or Dwyane Wade, who are going to get max contracts no matter where they go, but second-tier players like David Lee or Rudy Gay should definitely benefit from the extra available money that will be thrown around.

Photo from fOTOGLIF

New York Post columnist Peter Vecsey isn’t optimistic about the Knicks’ chances in free agency, and he’s not afraid to say so.

Shows what kind of jagged competition the Knicks are in for this summer when the free-agent grab bag unties. If LeBron James isn’t game to accept almost half of their $33 million surplus, you can kiss off Dwyane Wade, too.

Where will that leave the Knicks? Chris Bosh is next in line. As good as he is, he has not been good enough to take the Raptors anywhere worthwhile (two first rounds) in this, his seventh season. He is better defensively than David Lee, but across the stats sheet, there’s not a discernable difference, and Toronto might get best of that deal. Bosh is a perfect Poncho to Cisco in Miami.

Vescey goes on to predict that Joe Johnson will re-up in Atlanta, that Amare Stoudemire and Mike D’Antoni wouldn’t click, that the Grizzlies will match any offer for Rudy Gay, and that the Knicks would be “lucky” to get Carlos Boozer.

In the final analysis, the Knicks may have to “settle for” re-signing Lee. Something they had better do as soon after July 1 as possible . . . before the Nets lock him up and he becomes a perennial All-Star alongside Brook Lopez . . . and they are stuck adopting unadoptable free agents.

I’m not as down on the Knicks’ chances of striking gold as Vescey seems to be. Let’s not forget that they play at Madison Square Garden in the media capital of the world and that they’re coached by Mike D’Antoni who plays an up-tempo system that players seem to love.

I could see the Knicks being in a situation where they’re hoping Memphis doesn’t match their offer for Rudy Gay and praying that David Lee is willing to come back after all the Knicks have put him through. I can also see a scenario where LeBron James, Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh all take a bit less money to play for a title year in and year out in NYC. There’s no team that has a greater upside/downside as the Knicks this summer.

Let’s assume LeBron sticks in Cleveland and Wade stays in Miami. The next best duo would be Joe Johnson and Chris Bosh. Not bad. Let’s say Bosh goes to the Heat, then the Knicks could get Johnson and Stoudemire (or Boozer). Again, not bad. What if Johnson sticks in Atlanta or bolts to the Bulls, Clippers or Nets? Then, the Knicks are looking at Gay and Stoudemire/Boozer. Could be worse.

The funny thing is that while the Knicks are waiting on Bosh/Stoudemire/Boozer, someone (like the Nets, as Vescey said) could swoop in and snatch up Lee.

Is it a bad thing that I’m more excited about free agency than I am the postseason?

Photo from fOTOGLIF

When asked about potentially re-signing Rudy Gay, Grizzlies owner Michael Heisley made a bold statement:

Q. Will you re-sign Rudy Gay, who is a restricted free agent this summer?

A. I feel we’re going to sign him. I don’t know what else you want me to say. Rudy is an outstanding player. He fits our team well. We’ve got the best front line in basketball.

The Grizzlies’ front line consists of Rudy Gay (20-6-2), Zach Randolph (21-12-2) and Marc Gasol (15-9-2). Good? Absolutely. The best in basketball? I don’t know.

Let’s see…

Cavs? (LeBron, Jamison, Shaq)
Celtics? (Pierce, KG, Perkins)
Hawks? (J. Johnson, J. Smith, Horford)
Lakers? (Artest, Gasol, Bynum…Odom)

Would you take the Grizzlies over any of those other front lines? I’m not a big believer in Randolph, so I might be a little biased. The Cavs and C’s are older, but I’d certainly take those front lines over the Grizzlies’ for one or two seasons. And as far as young front lines go, I think the Hawks have the best in the league.