Months of trade speculation have gone by and now Rudy Fernandez is officially asking out of his contract so that he can return to Spain. His agent Andy Miller is making that perfectly clear. Per The Columbian…

“There’s nothing to fix,” Miller said. “He does not want to come back to the NBA.”

“This is not a bluff,” Miller said. “In his mind, he’s not coming back.”

Miller said he has attempted to be fair and reasonable with the Blazers during negotiations. But after waiting

months for Portland to make a move, the “light is out.”

“In my mind, we’re at a very unnecessary juncture,” Miller said. “I’m certainly not happy as an NBA agent that this is happening.”

The Oregonian has more details…

Rudy Fernandez will not report to the Trail Blazers training camp in October and the disgruntled guard has no intention of playing for the Blazers for the remaining two years of his contract, his agent said Wednesday.

Fernandez, 25, is unhappy with his role and is frustrated with the offensive style of coach Nate McMillan, whom he says limits him to just a shooter, and not the playmaker he has shown he can be in international play.

Miller said new Blazers general manager Rich Cho has “overreached” in his attempt to trade Fernandez, turning down offers from Chicago, New York and Boston, leaving Miller and Fernandez with no option other than to hold firm that the former first-round pick will not report.

“All I can do now is stand on the roof top and scream ‘He’s not coming!’,” Miller said. “He’s just not coming back … I’ve made that clear.”

“Why would anyone want to hold anyone against their will?” Miller asked. “He’s not going to want to practice, he’s not going to want to be around his teammates. I mean, if they thought he was difficult when he was contributing, imagine how difficult he will be when he is not.”

Last week, I examined Fernandez’s case that he should get more playing time, and found that it wasn’t all that strong. He certainly hasn’t been the guy that we saw play so well in the 2008 Olympics, but then again, the NBA is a different animal. Fernandez has far more freedom when he plays for Spain than he does in Portland, and clearly he craves that kind of responsibility.

For his part, new Portland GM Rich Cho is taking a hard line with Fernandez and has said repeatedly that he’s not going to make a trade just to make a trade. But now Fernandez isn’t asking for a trade. He wants to leave the NBA altogether — will the Blazers let him out of his contract?

I keep hearing that Rudy Fernandez is unhappy with the amount of playing time he has been getting in Portland, and that he’s angling for a trade to a team where he’ll have an opportunity to play more minutes.

Fine. But does he deserve to play more minutes?

In 2008-09, he averaged 25.5 minutes per game. In 2009-10, that number fell to 23.2. In order to determine if Fernandez should get starter’s minutes (which I define as around 28 min per game), I parsed out those games where he played 28+ minutes to see if he played any better with that much run. Here’s what I found:

Obviously, his numbers are going to go up the more minutes he plays, so the key numbers to look at are his shooting percentages and his Efficiency Per Minute (EPM), which provides a good overview of what Fernandez brings to the table statistically on a per minute basis. He does play about 8% better (in terms of per minute stats) when he gets 28+ minutes per game. But that’s to be expected, assuming a player is in good physical shape and can play extra minutes. The more minutes you play the more comfortable you are, and the more comfortable you are, the better you’ll play.

However, his EPM of .400 in starter’s minutes is not particularly good. There are 53 shooting guards and small forwards that averaged 28+ minutes per game this season, and the group’s average EPM was .458. Fernandez would rank #38 (or in the 30th percentile) if he were included in this group, just ahead of guys like O.J. Mayo, Richard Jefferson, Rip Hamilton, Marvin Williams, Ryan Gomes and Eric Gordon.

Looking only at shooting guards, Fernandez’s performance in 28+ minutes would trail John Salmons (.401), Ray Allen (.426), Jason Terry (.431) and Anthony Morrow (.432).

Moreover, he ranks ahead of several players — Ronnie Brewer, Courtney Lee, Ron Artest and Thabo Sefolosha — who are known more for their defense than anything they produce offensively or statistically. Fernandez’s defense is considered to be mediocre at best.

So to answer the question posed in the title of this post — no, he does not deserve to start, at least not for a playoff team. Virtually everyone who ranks below him in EPM plays for a lottery team or is known more for their defense than their offense.

He may very well get his wish and find a new home, but the chances of him finding a situation where he’s going to get starter’s minutes on a playoff-caliber team certainly seem slim.

His coach, Nate McMillan, sums it up pretty well:

“The thing about it, anybody in the league can use him,” McMillan said. “He’s a good player. He’s a rotational player. For some teams, he’s going to be able to start. For some teams, he’s going to have to come off the bench. If he goes to Boston, he’s probably coming off the bench behind one of those guys, Ray Allen or Paul Pierce. So it just depends on where he goes as far as his role and how he would play. But his talent, there are a lot of teams that can use him and take advantage of what he does. But we’ll see what happens.”

Everyone loves to focus on the lottery, but there are good players to be had in the late first round as well. A while back, I put together a list of the top second round picks of the modern era, so now I’m going to focus on those players that were drafted between pick #21 and pick #30 in the first round. (Note: If a player was drafted in the second round, even if they were taken with the #29 or #30 pick overall, they are ineligible to make the list. Sorry, Gilbert.) Since there are more star-quality players available in the 20′s, I’m limiting this list to the last ten drafts (i.e. 1999 through 2008).

It is sometimes tough to rank older players with newer players, but even if a younger player holds more trade value right now, I am going to take into account each player’s entire career. For the young guys, I have to project a little bit, so keep that in mind as you read and react. I feel great about the top eight guys, but there are a few players that missed the list that are pretty interchangeable with #9 and #10.

On with the list…

10. Aaron Brooks, Rockets
26th pick in 2007
I had to decide between Brooks and Nate Robinson here and went with Brooks given his fine performance in the playoffs this season (16.8 ppg, 3.4 apg, 42% from 3PT) and how Robinson’s numbers are a little inflated playing for Mike D’Antoni. Brooks is not a natural point guard, but his sharpshooting is a good fit given Houston’s inside-out attack. He’s small, but he’s quick and is able to score at the rim when given some daylight. The Rockets feel good enough about Brooks to trade Rafer Alston away midseason, so you have to like his upside.

9. Kendrick Perkins, Celtics
27th pick in 2003 (drafted by the Grizzlies)
In the world of “big” guys, I also considered Boris Diaw here, but it’s tough to pass on a 6’10″ 24-year-old who averaged 8.5 points, 8.1 rebounds and 2.0 blocks per game on a team loaded with vets. Without Kevin Garnett in the playoffs, the C’s needed Perkins to step up his game and he responded with 11.9 points, 11.6 boards and 2.6 blocks per contest. He also did a pretty good job on Dwight Howard, who had his worst numbers of the playoffs against the Celtics.

8. David Lee, Knicks
30th pick in 2005
Isiah Thomas couldn’t make a good trade to save his life, but he could spot talent in the draft. Lee has turned out to be a steal with the last pick in the 2005 draft. He’s an athletic lefty whose best traits are his hustle and smarts. In just his fourth season, Lee averaged 16.0 points and 11.7 rebounds per game, which made him one of the most consistent double-double guys in the league. His stock is so high right now that the Knicks might be able to use him as trade bait in order to land Chris Bosh or Amare Stoudemire. Maybe they’d be better off sticking with Lee…

7. Gerald Wallace, Bobcats
25th pick in 2001 (drafted by the Kings)
Even though he plays in Charlotte, Wallace has a reputation for being one of the best perimeter defenders in the league. Throw in the fact that he’s a capable scorer (15.9 ppg last season) and you have one of the best all-around small forwards in the league. His jumper is improving (if slowly), but he’s at his best when he’s using his superior athleticism to attack the rim. If he had landed in a bigger market or for a better team, he wouldn’t be playing so far under the radar.

6. Andrei Kirilenko, Jazz
24th pick in 1999
AK-47 was named to just one All-Star game, but has made three All-Defensive teams. Let’s not forget that Kirilenko was Utah’s leading scorer in the 2002-03 season, the year before the arrival of Carlos Boozer. Then came Deron Williams, and Kirilenko has settled into a more complementary role as a key defender, shotblocker and rebounder. He has had an up-and-down few years in Utah, but the fact remains that he was one of the top picks of the late first round.

5. Tayshaun Prince, Pistons
23rd pick in 2002
At Kentucky, Prince was known more for his offense than he was for his defense. The reverse has been true since he entered the league in 2002. He was named to the All-Defensive 2nd Team four straight times, while averaging better than 13.2 points per game for the last five seasons. His jumper is ugly, but it goes in, as evidenced by his 40% accuracy from long range last season. Simply stated, he is one of the most productive “glue guys” in the league and he was instrumental in the Pistons’ solid run over the last seven years.

4. Kevin Martin, Kings
26th pick in 2004
Here’s a guy that has made himself into one of the best scorers in the league. He has always possessed great quickness, but has gone from shooting 20% behind the arc in his rookie season to just over 41% last season. He can score in a multitude of ways and was second in the league in free throws attempted with 10.3 per game (behind Dwight Howard and ahead of Dwyane Wade). Moreover, he’s just 26, so he has room to grow.

3. Josh Howard, Mavericks
29th pick in 2003
Sure, he’s kind of a knucklehead, but there’s no doubt that Howard has game. He slipped in the draft because of an apparent lack of upside. When he came out of college, he wasn’t a superb athlete and wasn’t great at any one thing, but he was a very good all-around player, which is why he won the ACC Player of the Year in his senior season at Wake Forest. In the NBA, he has steadily improved his offensive repertoire and has a reputation for being one of the better defensive small forwards in the league. He was named to the All-Star game in 2007 and is often used as evidence that it’s not always smart to pass on a proven college upperclassman for perceived upside.

2. Rajon Rondo, Celtics
21st pick in 2006 (drafted by the Suns)
Rondo slipped in the ’06 draft due to concerns about his non-existent jumper. As a second-year player, he successfully molded his game to fit with veterans Paul Pierce, Kevin Garnett and Ray Allen to help lead the Celtics to a title in 2008. He was named to the All-Defensive team in 2009, and when Garnett went out with a knee injury late in the year, Rondo turned it on come playoff time. In the first round against the Bulls, he averaged a stellar 19.4 points, 11.6 assists and 9.3 rebounds, including two triple-doubles. Due to his work ethic, energy and the tutelage of Doc Rivers, he’s quickly becoming one of the best young point guards in the game. But can he keep this career trajectory once the Big Three start departing and defenses can afford to pay more attention to him?

1. Tony Parker, Spurs
28th pick in 2001
Parker is just 27 and already has had an illustrious career. He has been named to three All-Star games, and was the Finals MVP in 2007 when it became apparent that the Cavs didn’t have a guy that could stay in front of him. In fact, there are very few players in the league who can effectively defend Parker, who is one of the very best at getting to the rim in transition and off the pick and roll. He has helped the Spurs win three titles, and it has been interesting to see his transformation from a 19 year-old rookie to wily veteran over the past eight seasons. It will be even more interesting to see how he adjusts to being “The Guy” as Tim Duncan gets older and less productive. Parker went late in the first round because he was a foreigner (remember, international scouting was not as sharp in 2001) and because he was/is short and slight. But he really benefited from the rules changes that reduced hand checking on the perimeter and has flourished since he joined the league.

Honorable Mention: Nate Robinson, Boris Diaw, Delonte West, Rudy Fernandez, Morris Peterson, Samuel Dalembert, Leandro Barbosa, Courtney Lee, Jarrett Jack, Kenny Thomas, John Salmons, Jordan Farmar, George Hill, Linas Kleiza and Beno Udrih.

What can we draw from this list?

1. There are four small forwards — Howard, Kirilenko, Wallace and Prince — that are all known more for their defense than their offense, and Howard and Prince both scored in the high teens in college.

2. There are three point guards on the list. Two were deemed too small (Parker and Brooks) and the other couldn’t shoot (Rondo).

3. There is a power forward (Lee) and an off guard (Martin) who are known for their tremendous work ethics. Lee is a big-time hustler on the court and Martin is a gym rat who has transformed himself into one of the best scorers in the league.

4. There’s a 6’10″ center (Perkins) who came to the NBA straight out of high school. It’s especially tough to find a good big late in the first round, as anyone with size and talent is usually long gone by now. Check out this list of 6’10″ or taller players that were drafted in the late first round over the last 10 years: Pavel Podkolzine, Iakovos Tsakalidis, Kosta Koufos, Dalibor Bagaric, Primoz Brezec, Johan Petro, Mamadou NDiaye, Tiago Splitter, David Harrison, Samuel Dalembert, Jeff Foster, Nenad Krstic, Ryan Anderson, Josh Boone, Brian Cook, Serge Ibaka, Ian Mahinmi, Donte Greene, Leon Smith and Joel Freeland. While there are a few contributors on that list, the vast majority ride the bench or aren’t even in the league.

The lesson? Go small. Look for a player with an impressive work ethic. Try to find someone that has the physical tools to play good defense or a point guard that is too quick to be covered. These are the types of players that seemed flawed, but have the potential to develop into first round steals.

Eliminated from the playoffs, it’s time for the Phoenix Suns to look forward to next season. For his part, Steve Nash says that he would like to stay…

After missing the playoffs, Nash could decline an extension if he is unhappy with the offer or the off-season plan. He wants to play four more seasons.

“My first priority is to sit down and listen to Steve and (Suns Managing Partner) Robert (Sarver) and hear what their wish is and what their plan is for the team,” Nash said. “I can be a part of us revamping here.

“I’m under the impression they want to talk an extension, and I do, too. Hopefully we can find ourselves in a position where we can revamp and be back in the playoffs and hopefully be a contender. Hopefully I’ll be a part of the plan.”

Nash, 35, still is a special offensive player. If he maintains his fifth consecutive 50 percent field-goal shooting season in the final two games, Nash would become the first player in NBA history to record three seasons in which he shot 50 percent from the field, 40 percent from 3-point range and 90 percent from the free-throw line. Nash went from averaging 13.8 points under Porter to 19.1 once interim Alvin Gentry restored the team’s Nash-and-dash style. Nash’s assist-to-turnover ratio went from 2.6 -to 1 to 3.7 -to 1.

I have been critical of the Suns’ brass — namely Steve Kerr — all season long.

Back in early February, I wrote about how every move Kerr makes has made the team worse.

His first move as GM was to trade Rudy Fernandez to the Blazers for cash considerations. Then there was the Marion-Shaq trade, which forced Mike D’Antoni out, because he doesn’t know how to coach a slow-it-down team. Seemingly every move Kerr makes backfires.

The Suns are now 26-20, they’ve lost seven of their last 11 games and are hanging on to the #8 seed in the West. They are a shell of that exciting team that we saw in those playoffs two years ago and if Carlos Boozer can come back strong for the Jazz, Phoenix is in serious danger of missing the postseason altogether.

I went into more detail about Kerr’s missteps in this mid-December post.

The Suns are a mess. They probably would have made the playoffs had Amare Stoudemire stayed healthy, but even then, we’re they really a contender to make the Finals? For years, the Suns have been giving away first round picks and it has come back to bite them in the end.

Kerr has a lot of work to do. But here’s the big question: Given the job he’s already done, will he have a chance to clean up his own mess?

For the record, that was TWO buzzer beaters.

Last night, the NBA held its Shooting Stars (zzzzz), Skills Challenge (zzzz), Three-Point Shootout and Slam Dunk Contest. Here are a six random observations about the night’s events, which include some breaking news for those that missed the event.

1. It would be nice if the contestants in the Skills Challenge would actually try to win.
Devin Harris looked like he was in another gear compared to his competitors, but struggled with the passing and shooting and ultimately finished second to Derrick Rose who was just about perfect in those parts of the course. Mo Williams looked like he didn’t even want to be there and Tony Parker couldn’t make a jumper to save his life. Harris was the only one that was actually putting forth any effort during the dribbling portion. Most of these guys are more interested in looking cool than looking like they want to win, and that’s a shame.

2. Did Kenny Smith take annoying pills just before the Three-Point Shootout?
When he wasn’t declaring that the eventual champion (Daequan Cook) didn’t have a chance to win the contest, he was flip-flopping like crazy during each round. At one point, during the middle rack of balls, he said that Rashard Lewis didn’t have a chance to advance, and then when Lewis his four out of five on the final rack to advance, Smith said, “I told you so.” I was rooting for Cook just to see Smith eat crow, and he never did. On a side note, Reggie Miller and his sister have the most non-broadcast type voices. I like what Reggie has to say, so he gets a pass, but I’m not sure what Cheryl brings to the table. (To be fair, that’s probably true of any sideline reporter not named Erin Andrews.)

3. Do away with the time limit.
The dunk contest has seen a resurgence in its popularity of late, and that’s in no small part to the creativity of Dwight Howard in last year’s event. But the one-minute time limit takes some of the pressure out of the event. It’s anti-climatic to watch Rudy Fernandez miss the same dunk eight times only to make it on his ninth attempt. I’d like to see each guy get three attempts for each dunk and if he can’t complete it, he has to live with his score. That forces players to attempt dunks that they can actually complete. The downside is that guys will be less likely to take chances, which is sort of what has made the contest popular again.

4. Dwight Howard was a victim of his own poor strategy.
Howard should have saved his dunk on the 12′ rim for the final round. After his 50-point first dunk in the first round, he was a shoe-in for the finals, so he essentially wasted the 12′ dunk when it should have been his finale. His free-throw line dunk had been done before, and it didn’t look as impressive with a seven-footer doing it. Had he swapped this dunk with the 12′ dunk, he probably would have defended his title. (And how impressive was his 12′ dunk? He did it with ease. The guy is a freak.)

5. Props to Nate Robinson for one-upping Superman with kryptonite shoes.
For those that missed it, Robinson went to the locker room after the first round and changed into a green New York Knicks uniform complete with neon green kryptonite shoes. It was a great idea that I’m sure won over a few folks at home.

6. LeBron James said that he plans to participate in the 2010 Slam Dunk Contest.
Reggie Miller made a great point about how Michael Jordan entered the dunk contest a few times to prove that he was the best, and that’s the kind of killer instinct that some say LeBron lacks. Kobe Bryant won the 1997 dunk contest, so it’s up to LeBron to prove that he has the chops to beat Dwight Howard and Nate Robinson. LeBron sort of acts like he’s above it, and that’s not good. (Oh, by the way, LeBron claims he can dunk on a 13′ rim. Now that’s something I’d like to see.)

ESPN’s Chad Ford said that they are in his chat yesterday.

Jason (Culver City CA) [via mobile]: What are the chances of Amare Stoudemire getting traded before the deadline?

Chad Ford: Last week I said 10 percent. But I think that was low. The more people I talk to in the league, the more I think it’s something in the neighborhood of 30 to 40 percent. Steve Kerr and Robert Sarver are taking a hard look at the team right now. If they decide to blow it up, Stoudemire will be the first to go.

Let’s see, you’re thinking about blowing the team up and your first move is to trade away your 26 year-old All-Pro forward/center? This is nonsensical. Why not trade away Shaq, who is 36 and due to make $20 million next season? Or Steve Nash, who is 34 and has just one more year on his contract?

Why would you trade away your best player, especially when he’s only 26?

I criticized Steve Kerr’s decision to break up that Suns team that was a couple of bench-clearing suspensions away from upending the eventual-champion Spurs in the 2007 playoffs. His first move as GM was to trade Rudy Fernandez to the Blazers for cash considerations. Then there was the Marion-Shaq trade, which forced Mike D’Antoni out, because he doesn’t know how to coach a slow-it-down team. Seemingly every move Kerr makes backfires.

The Suns are now 26-20, they’ve lost seven of their last 11 games and are hanging on to the #8 seed in the West. They are a shell of that exciting team that we saw in those playoffs two years ago and if Carlos Boozer can come back strong for the Jazz, Phoenix is in serious danger of missing the postseason altogether.

Now they’re thinking about trading away their best player, who is only 26 and entering the prime of his career.

That’s just great.