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2010 Fantasy Baseball Preview: Starting Pitchers

Anthony Stalter — Thu, 11 Mar 2010 01:20:25 +0000

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Sometimes it’s difficult to evaluate what kind of production a player will have when he changes teams over the offseason. This is especially true when it comes to starting pitching, because not only can an unfamiliar ballpark play a role in how a starter fairs, but also what kind of offensive production he can expect from his new lineup and whether or not he’ll have a good spot in the rotation.

Below are eight starting pitchers that either changed teams at the tale end of the 2009 season or will be playing for a completely different club in 2010. We’ve outlined some factors that the pitchers will be facing in their new situation and try to project how they’ll fair in 2010. Some players (like Roy Halladay for example) can be counted on to be great no matter what team they wind up on. But what about guys like Jake Peavy (who will now have to pitch in the AL for a full season for the first time in his career) or Max Scherzer (a strikeout pitcher that is moving to a tougher AL after playing the past couple seasons in Arizona)?

Let’s take a look.

Roy Halladay, Phillies
You’re going to draft Halladay for the same reasons the Phillies parted with multiple players (including Cliff Lee and a couple of key prospects) in order to acquire him from the Blue Jays last winter: he’s outstanding. Halladay finished with 47 complete games last season and 14 shutouts, while also ranking 11th in innings pitched. Now that he’s playing in the NL on a team with a potent offense, he should have no problem winning 17-plus games and notching another 200 strikeouts. The only knock against Halladay’s new home is that the Phillies play in a hitter-friendly ballpark. But we’re thinking the veteran pitcher will adjust fine to his new digs.

Cliff Lee, Mariners
Lee felt he was shafted when the Phillies unloaded him in order to acquire Halladay last winter, but he should love his new surroundings. He’s walked fewer than two batters per nine innings in each of the past two seasons and will now have the luxury of having a solid defensive outfield at his back. He’s used to pitching in the AL from his days in Cleveland, so the league change won’t hurt him one bit. Lee is a top-notch fantasy starter.

Javier Vazquez, Yankees
The last time Vazquez was in pinstripes he finished with a 4.91 ERA and a horrendous showing in Game 7 of the ALCS against the Red Sox in 2004. But Vazquez has been solid since then and is coming off a year in which he racked up 15 wins, 238 strikeouts, a 2.87 ERA and a 1.03 WHIP. Don’t overvalue him on draft day because pitching in Yankee Stadium will surely cause his ERA to travel north of 3.00, but don’t undervalue him because he’s pitched well over the past couple years and will get plenty of offensive help from the Bombers’ stacked lineup.

John Lackey, Red Sox
There are two concerns about Lackey and one doesn’t really have anything to do with him moving to Boston. Over the last two seasons, arm issues have limited him early in the year and have prevented him from making 30 starts. But considering the Red Sox gave him a lucrative deal during the offseason, it appears that they aren’t concerned with his arm and neither should fantasy owners. Another potential concern is that he’s moving to a division where pitchers had a 4.83 ERA facing AL East clubs last year (compared to 4.22 against other teams), but Lackey remains a candidate to win 15-plus games this year and finish with an ERA around 3.60. He should also benefit from Boston’s solid offensive production and defense. (The addition of Mike Cameron boosts the club’s defense in the outfield.)

Jake Peavy, White Sox
Proceed with major caution. Not only has Peavy had injury issues over the past two seasons, but he’s also moving to the American League where hitters are tougher and to the homer-friendly U.S. Cellular Field will be a stark different from playing in the spacious Petco Park for so many years. We’re not suggesting that Peavy won’t be solid this season; on the contrary, we believe he’ll wind up right around 15 wins if he stays healthy. But don’t overvalue him on draft day – especially considering his ERA is likely to suffer a spike given his new surroundings.

Max Scherzer, Tigers
Scherzer still has plenty of upside and given his penchant for striking hitters out, he’ll be valuable to many owners on draft day. But there were some in the Diamondbacks’ organization that felt he would continue to be a pitcher that can’t work deep into games and would only be a five-inning starter. Moving to the AL doesn’t bode well for his fantasy production, but he could be a pitcher that is eventually worth the risk in the later rounds.

Edwin Jackson, Diamondbacks
Here’s the good news: Jackson had an outstanding first half last year, compiling a 2.52 ERA and a 1.06 WHIP. Here’s the bad: he fell apart in the second half of the season, racking up a 5.07 ERA and a 1.53 WHIP. Moving to the NL will certainly help his value (he’ll get to face the Giants and Padres’ weak offenses a couple times a year), but his overall production will likely fall right in between his first half success last year and his second half failures. You might be better off having some other owner draft him and then scooping him up later if he becomes available on the waiver wire.

Rich Harden, Rangers
Buyer Beware on Harden: just because you’ll likely get him in the later rounds and will love his strikeout numbers, doesn’t mean he’s necessarily a bargain. His home run rate doubled last year and with it came a spike in his ERA. His move to the American League doesn’t help much and neither does pitching in a homer-friendly Rangers Ballpark in Arlington. Harden certainly isn’t a bad third or fourth starter, but just be aware that he’s always an injury waiting to happen and with the move to Texas, he might be worth a pass.

Below is our official ranking of starting pitchers.

1. Tim Lincecum, SF
2. Roy Halladay, PHI
3. Felix Hernandez, SEA
4. Zach Greinke, KC
5. CC Sabathia, NYY
6. Dan Haren, ARI
7. Justin Verlander, DET
8. Cliff Lee, SEA
9. Jon Lester, BOS
10. Adam Wainwright, STL
11. Johan Santana, NYM
12. Chris Carpenter, STL
13. Yovani Gallardo, MIL
14. Matt Cain, SF
15. Josh Beckett, BOS
16. Javier Vazquez, NYY
17. Clayton Kershaw, LAD
18. Tommy Hanson, ATL
19. Josh Johnson, FLA
20. Ubaldo Jimenez, COL
21. John Lackey, BOS
22. Cole Hamels, PHI
23. Ricky Nolasco, FLA
24. Wandy Rodriguez, HOU
25. Chad Billingsley, LAD
26. Jake Peavy, CHW
27. Jair Jurrjens, ATL
28. Scott Baker, MIN
29. A.J. Burnett, NYY
30. Jered Weaver, LAA
31. Matt Garza, TB
32. John Danks, CHW
33. Roy Oswalt, HOU
34. Brandon Webb, ARI
35. Brett Anderson, OAK
36. Tim Hudson, ATL
37. David Price, TB
38. Max Scherzer, DET
39. Scott Kazmir, LAA
40. Edwin Jackson, ARI
41. J.A. Happ, PHI
42. Clay Buchholz, BOS
43. Rick Porcello, DET
44. Gavin Floyd, CHW
45. Jorge De La Rosa, COL
46. Ryan Dempster, CHC
47. Rich Harden, TEX
48. Mark Buehrle, CHW
49. Ervin Santana, LAA
50. Jonathan Sanchez, SF
51. Brian Matusz, BAL
52. Jeff Niemann, TB
53. Ted Lilly, CHC
54. James Shields, TB
55. Wade Davis, TB

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Phillies land Halladay, trade Lee to Mariners in blockbuster deal

Anthony Stalter — Mon, 14 Dec 2009 22:18:53 +0000

According to a report by SI.com, the Phillies have agreed to a trade that will send Roy Halladay to Philadelphia and Cliff Lee to the Mariners.

The Phillies are in agreement on a three-team trade with the Mariners and Blue Jays to acquire star pitcher Roy Halladay, SI.com has learned. All indications are that Cliff Lee will likely be heading from Philadelphia to Seattle in the trade.

Sources say Halladay will agree to a contract extension to complete the deal. It’s expected to be a formality, and though terms are not yet clear, it’s expected to be worked out in the next couple days. Halladay wanted to be in Philadelphia, as the Phillies train in Clearwater, Fla., not far from his offseason home.

The Phillies are giving up prospects to Toronto to get Halladay, but it isn’t known yet which players are in the deal. Philadelphia, which would also get prospects from Seattle, is trying to keep its payroll at around $140 million.

At first glance, I’m shocked that the Phillies traded Lee away in order to complete this deal. He was dominating in the postseason, posting a perfect 4-0 record and a 1.56 ERA in five starts. But both he and Halladay are in their last year of their contracts and if Philadelphia can only pay for one, they might as well go with the guy that they can lock up long term – especially if that player is Halladay. There was no guarantee that Lee would re-sign with Philadelphia.

With their pitching staff now set (Lee and Felix Hernandez form one hell of a 1-2 combo), the Mariners must be gearing up to make a run and I wouldn’t be surprised if they wound up signing Jason Bay sometime this offseason to boost their offense.

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Report: Halladay, agent check into Philly hotel

Anthony Stalter — Mon, 14 Dec 2009 20:14:24 +0000

According to a report by the Philadelphia Inquirer, Roy Halladay and his agent have checked into a Philadelphia hotel.

Could a trade between the Phillies and Jays be imminent?

It is not known if a trade sending Halladay to the Phillies is imminent, but if Halladay and the Phils are negotiating–as is indicated by the pitcher’s presence in Philadelphia–that would suggest that the Phils and Blue Jays are far enough along in talks for Halladay to discuss a potential contract extension with the Phils. Halladay has one year remaining on his contract before becoming a free agent.

The Phils have long been linked to Halladay, and were actively involved in trade talks last July, before the team acquired lefthander Cliff Lee from Cleveland.

Allow me to get ahead of myself for a moment: Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee and Cole Hamels…NL hitters everywhere just crapped themselves.

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Phillies emerging as the favorite to acquire Halladay?

Anthony Stalter — Fri, 11 Dec 2009 15:14:05 +0000

SI.com’s Tom Verducci writes that the Phillies are the emerging favorite to acquire Blue Jays’ ace Roy Halladay.

After almost a decade in which democracy ruled in the NL, Philadelphia is becoming the Yankees of its league: the king who wants more. Already the two-time league champion, the Phillies, given their aggressiveness and stockpile of young talent, are emerging as the favorite to land Toronto ace Roy Halladay. Anybody want to pick against the Phillies being the NL’s first three-peat champ since the 1942-44 Cardinals if Cole Hamels is their number three pitcher behind Halladay and Cliff Lee?

“They’ve been very aggressive,” one baseball source said about the Phillies’ pursuit of Halladay. “They’re putting together a package, even if they need another team. They’re trying to find the players [on other teams] the Blue Jays want to get it done.”

Hmm, one day the Angels are the frontrunners and now the Phillies are. The biggest storyline of the MLB winter meetings is only getting more intriguing.

This is an interesting report because on one hand, a rotation of Halladay, Lee and Hamels would be unbelievable and would make Philadelphia the perennial favorite to repeat as NL champions. But on the other hand, do they really want to give up more of their farm system?

The other question is whether or not they would sign Halladay to a long-term deal if they did acquire him. It wouldn’t make much sense to trade away most of your farm to acquire Halladay for just one season, would it?

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Report: Angels make offer to Blue Jays for Roy Halladay

Anthony Stalter — Thu, 10 Dec 2009 20:56:14 +0000

According to a report by the Toronto Sun, the Angels have offered starting pitcher Joe Saunders, shortstop Erick Aybar and outfielder Peter Bourjos to the Blue Jays for ace Roy Halladay.

For the second day in succession the Angels are the lead team in the chase for Halladay, a year away from free agency.

And unless someone steps up with a better offer could the Angels wind up with Halladay? Will Halladay report to a west coast team which has spring training in Arizona?

“Let me ask you this,” said one major league executive, “do you think that the Angels would be running through hoops, having one conversation after another with the Jays and not know whether Halladay would report to Los Angeles?”
Good point.

The Angels are also in on free agents John Lackey, Jason Bay and Matt Holliday.

For the past three seasons, the Angels have made the postseason and have yet to even sniff a World Series appearance (although last year they did push the Yankees to a Game 7 in the ALDS). Thus, it would make sense that they’re trying to load up in efforts to match the Yankees and contend for a title next season.

As the article points out, the question now becomes whether or not Halladay would want to join a club that holds their spring training in Arizona instead of Florida. It has become public knowledge that Halladay wants to go to a team that trains in Florida, because his home is in Tampa.

That said, if Halladay truly wants to play for a contender, this might be his best and most realistic shot.

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Report: Angels enter Roy Halladay derby

Anthony Stalter — Mon, 07 Dec 2009 21:02:17 +0000

According to Jon Heyman of SI.com, the Angels are interested in Blue Jays’ ace Roy Halladay, but only if he’s interested in agreeing to a long-term deal with them.

The Yankees, Red Sox and perhaps Phillies are among other teams interested in what’s expected to be a select group in the bidding for the Blue Jays superstar.

Executives with multiple teams interested say they believe Halladay’s value is enhanced if he’s willing to sign on long term, and that Toronto’s take will be diminished greatly if Halladay prefers to wait to sign until he becomes a free agent after the year. But the Angles are at least one team that will walk away from talks without a long-term deal in hand.

Halladay has a full no-trade clause and is known to want to go to a perennial winner. He is also believed to strongly prefer a team that trains in Florida, as his winter home is just outside Tampa. Halladay rejected the Rangers last year but could be slightly more open to the Angels. Halladay’s agent, Greg Landry, has said they will consider opportunities on a “case-by-cases basis.”

According to Heyman, Toronto GM Alex Anthopoulos has said that he’s willing to consider trading Halladay within the division, which makes little sense. For a new GM to want to make a division opponent better sounds ridiculous, but if he receives a package that is too good to be true then he might have little choice.

If Anthopoulos is willing to deal within the division, the Yankees make sense. They obviously have the money to make Halladay happy long-term and the Bombers train in Tampa. But whether or not they have the package to entice Toronto is a whole other story.

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Halladay puts the squeeze on the Jays

Anthony Stalter — Tue, 01 Dec 2009 16:00:15 +0000

Roy Halladay’s message to the Blue Jays is simple: Either deal me before spring training or get nothing in return for my services when I walk at the end of the season.

Halladay’s people recently informed the Jays that he would not accept a trade after he reports to spring training this season. So if the club had plans to trade him before the trade deadline to a desperate buyer willing to give up more in a package deal, then they should think again.

This is power move by Halladay, who doesn’t want to spend another second in Toronto if he doesn’t have to. If he knows he’ll eventually be traded, he might as well force a deal before the season so he can get acclimated to his new team from Day 1 of spring training.

On the other side, this could either be a great thing for the Blue Jays or a terrible one. Sometimes when teams wait to trade a marquee player, they get less at the deadline than they would have in the offseason. While it’s true other clubs are more desperate at the deadline, GMs will know that the Jays want to trade Halladay and may try to low ball them in terms of offers.

On the other hand, if new GM Alex Anthopoulos can’t pull the trigger on a deal before the deadline and Halladay sticks to his guns, then there’s a big chance that Toronto will get nothing in return for the ace.

With this move, Halladay just amp’ed up the intrigue surrounding this situation.

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