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2010 MLB Preview: AL West

Anthony Stalter — Wed, 24 Mar 2010 21:30:58 +0000

In order to help get you ready for the MLB season, we’re doing division-by-division rankings with quick overviews on how each club could fair in 2010. Next to each team, you’ll also find a corresponding number written in parenthesis, which indicates where we believe that club falls in a league-wide power ranking. Be sure to check back throughout the next two weeks leading up to the season, as we will be updating our content daily. Enjoy.

Next up is the AL West.

1. Los Angeles Angels (6)
When I started to do the prep work for the AL West preview, I filled the top slot with the Angels without even giving it much thought. And why should I have? They’ve won the division six of the last seven years and baseball fans have just grown accustomed to the Halos being in the playoff mix every season. But immediately after I slotted them in the top spot, my stomach started to hurt and no, it wasn’t from the fish I ate last night. (Although hey, fish is still good even when it turns green right?) There’s no doubt that the Angels took a hit this offseason. They lost their ace (John Lackey), their leadoff man (Chone Figgins) and their top power source (Vladimir Guerrero), and usually when a team parts with that much talent, it suffers a setback. But this is why I’m not overly concerned about this club: the additions of Joel Pineiro and Hideki Matsui should pay dividends and if Scott Kazmir could ever stay healthy, he would ease the loss of Lackey. Plus, in Erick Aybar (their new leadoff hitter), Kendry Morales and Torri Hunter, the Halos still have a solid offensive core and their starting pitching is still in good shape with vets like Kazmir, Jered Weaver and Joe Saunders. Times are changing in L.A. and the Mariners and Rangers will push the Halos this season, but in the end they should be right back on top.

2. Seattle Mariners (8)
It’s hard not to get excited about the Mariners’ potential this season. After adding pitcher Cliff Lee in the offseason via a trade with the Phillies, they catapulted themselves into the Wild Card discussion and they should challenge the Angels in the division. But for as giddy as the thought of Lee, Felix Hernandez and Erick Bedard gets Seattle fans, there’s still that nagging offensive issue – as in, the M’s don’t have any. Jack Zduriencik tailor made this club for Safeco, which means pitching and defense are the focal points. But can the Mariners generate enough runs to overtake the Angels? The addition of Chone Figgins at the top of the lineup was great, but can Seattle get by playing small ball with him and Ichiro? At the end of the day, I like the club’s chances to succeed this season, especially with the addition of Lee and the fact that they improved their win total in 2009 by 24 games. But I’m not sure they’ll have enough offense yet to reach the postseason.

3. Texas Rangers (14)
On the surface, it’s tough to tell whether or not the Rangers are improved or not. Their high-powered offense wasn’t up to its usual standards last year because Josh Hamilton missed 73 games due to various injuries. But if Texas can get a full season out of him, then the club should score plenty of runs in 2010. The club lost workhorse Kevin Millwood via free agency but added Rich Harden, who can be dominating when healthy. If youngsters Neftali Feliz and Scott Feldman produce, then there’s no reason to think the Rangers can’t challenge for the Wild Card (or even the division). That said, I trust their pitching as much as I trust the Mariners’ offense, which is to say I don’t. That’s why I don’t have the gumption to write Seattle or Texas into the No. 1 spot in this division. But if Harden, Feliz and Feldman all overachieve, it wouldn’t surprise me in the least if the Rangers made some noise this season.

4. Oakland A’s (23)
Since when did the AL West get so competitive? Even though the A’s appear to be the weakest club in the division, they could wind up surprising people with their pitching and defense. Unfortunately for them, they don’t have enough offense to stay competitive all season. The combination of Coco Crisp, Jack Cust and Kevin Kouzmanoff isn’t even enough to scare Snuggle, the fabric softener bear, so what makes anyone think that they’re going to scare Cliff Lee, Felix Hernandez or Scott Kazmir? Ben Sheets will make for an interesting storyline to follow (although he’s having a horrid spring) and the bullpen should be outstanding with Andrew Bailey as its headliner, but other than that there’s not much to like about Oakland this season. They may hang with the three teams above in the first half, but eventually they should quietly sink to the bottom of the division.

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2010 Fantasy Baseball Preview: Starting Pitchers

Anthony Stalter — Thu, 11 Mar 2010 01:20:25 +0000

All 2010 Fantasy Articles | 2010 Position Rankings

Sometimes it’s difficult to evaluate what kind of production a player will have when he changes teams over the offseason. This is especially true when it comes to starting pitching, because not only can an unfamiliar ballpark play a role in how a starter fairs, but also what kind of offensive production he can expect from his new lineup and whether or not he’ll have a good spot in the rotation.

Below are eight starting pitchers that either changed teams at the tale end of the 2009 season or will be playing for a completely different club in 2010. We’ve outlined some factors that the pitchers will be facing in their new situation and try to project how they’ll fair in 2010. Some players (like Roy Halladay for example) can be counted on to be great no matter what team they wind up on. But what about guys like Jake Peavy (who will now have to pitch in the AL for a full season for the first time in his career) or Max Scherzer (a strikeout pitcher that is moving to a tougher AL after playing the past couple seasons in Arizona)?

Let’s take a look.

Roy Halladay, Phillies
You’re going to draft Halladay for the same reasons the Phillies parted with multiple players (including Cliff Lee and a couple of key prospects) in order to acquire him from the Blue Jays last winter: he’s outstanding. Halladay finished with 47 complete games last season and 14 shutouts, while also ranking 11th in innings pitched. Now that he’s playing in the NL on a team with a potent offense, he should have no problem winning 17-plus games and notching another 200 strikeouts. The only knock against Halladay’s new home is that the Phillies play in a hitter-friendly ballpark. But we’re thinking the veteran pitcher will adjust fine to his new digs.

Cliff Lee, Mariners
Lee felt he was shafted when the Phillies unloaded him in order to acquire Halladay last winter, but he should love his new surroundings. He’s walked fewer than two batters per nine innings in each of the past two seasons and will now have the luxury of having a solid defensive outfield at his back. He’s used to pitching in the AL from his days in Cleveland, so the league change won’t hurt him one bit. Lee is a top-notch fantasy starter.

Javier Vazquez, Yankees
The last time Vazquez was in pinstripes he finished with a 4.91 ERA and a horrendous showing in Game 7 of the ALCS against the Red Sox in 2004. But Vazquez has been solid since then and is coming off a year in which he racked up 15 wins, 238 strikeouts, a 2.87 ERA and a 1.03 WHIP. Don’t overvalue him on draft day because pitching in Yankee Stadium will surely cause his ERA to travel north of 3.00, but don’t undervalue him because he’s pitched well over the past couple years and will get plenty of offensive help from the Bombers’ stacked lineup.

John Lackey, Red Sox
There are two concerns about Lackey and one doesn’t really have anything to do with him moving to Boston. Over the last two seasons, arm issues have limited him early in the year and have prevented him from making 30 starts. But considering the Red Sox gave him a lucrative deal during the offseason, it appears that they aren’t concerned with his arm and neither should fantasy owners. Another potential concern is that he’s moving to a division where pitchers had a 4.83 ERA facing AL East clubs last year (compared to 4.22 against other teams), but Lackey remains a candidate to win 15-plus games this year and finish with an ERA around 3.60. He should also benefit from Boston’s solid offensive production and defense. (The addition of Mike Cameron boosts the club’s defense in the outfield.)

Jake Peavy, White Sox
Proceed with major caution. Not only has Peavy had injury issues over the past two seasons, but he’s also moving to the American League where hitters are tougher and to the homer-friendly U.S. Cellular Field will be a stark different from playing in the spacious Petco Park for so many years. We’re not suggesting that Peavy won’t be solid this season; on the contrary, we believe he’ll wind up right around 15 wins if he stays healthy. But don’t overvalue him on draft day – especially considering his ERA is likely to suffer a spike given his new surroundings.

Max Scherzer, Tigers
Scherzer still has plenty of upside and given his penchant for striking hitters out, he’ll be valuable to many owners on draft day. But there were some in the Diamondbacks’ organization that felt he would continue to be a pitcher that can’t work deep into games and would only be a five-inning starter. Moving to the AL doesn’t bode well for his fantasy production, but he could be a pitcher that is eventually worth the risk in the later rounds.

Edwin Jackson, Diamondbacks
Here’s the good news: Jackson had an outstanding first half last year, compiling a 2.52 ERA and a 1.06 WHIP. Here’s the bad: he fell apart in the second half of the season, racking up a 5.07 ERA and a 1.53 WHIP. Moving to the NL will certainly help his value (he’ll get to face the Giants and Padres’ weak offenses a couple times a year), but his overall production will likely fall right in between his first half success last year and his second half failures. You might be better off having some other owner draft him and then scooping him up later if he becomes available on the waiver wire.

Rich Harden, Rangers
Buyer Beware on Harden: just because you’ll likely get him in the later rounds and will love his strikeout numbers, doesn’t mean he’s necessarily a bargain. His home run rate doubled last year and with it came a spike in his ERA. His move to the American League doesn’t help much and neither does pitching in a homer-friendly Rangers Ballpark in Arlington. Harden certainly isn’t a bad third or fourth starter, but just be aware that he’s always an injury waiting to happen and with the move to Texas, he might be worth a pass.

Below is our official ranking of starting pitchers.

1. Tim Lincecum, SF
2. Roy Halladay, PHI
3. Felix Hernandez, SEA
4. Zach Greinke, KC
5. CC Sabathia, NYY
6. Dan Haren, ARI
7. Justin Verlander, DET
8. Cliff Lee, SEA
9. Jon Lester, BOS
10. Adam Wainwright, STL
11. Johan Santana, NYM
12. Chris Carpenter, STL
13. Yovani Gallardo, MIL
14. Matt Cain, SF
15. Josh Beckett, BOS
16. Javier Vazquez, NYY
17. Clayton Kershaw, LAD
18. Tommy Hanson, ATL
19. Josh Johnson, FLA
20. Ubaldo Jimenez, COL
21. John Lackey, BOS
22. Cole Hamels, PHI
23. Ricky Nolasco, FLA
24. Wandy Rodriguez, HOU
25. Chad Billingsley, LAD
26. Jake Peavy, CHW
27. Jair Jurrjens, ATL
28. Scott Baker, MIN
29. A.J. Burnett, NYY
30. Jered Weaver, LAA
31. Matt Garza, TB
32. John Danks, CHW
33. Roy Oswalt, HOU
34. Brandon Webb, ARI
35. Brett Anderson, OAK
36. Tim Hudson, ATL
37. David Price, TB
38. Max Scherzer, DET
39. Scott Kazmir, LAA
40. Edwin Jackson, ARI
41. J.A. Happ, PHI
42. Clay Buchholz, BOS
43. Rick Porcello, DET
44. Gavin Floyd, CHW
45. Jorge De La Rosa, COL
46. Ryan Dempster, CHC
47. Rich Harden, TEX
48. Mark Buehrle, CHW
49. Ervin Santana, LAA
50. Jonathan Sanchez, SF
51. Brian Matusz, BAL
52. Jeff Niemann, TB
53. Ted Lilly, CHC
54. James Shields, TB
55. Wade Davis, TB

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Report: Rich Harden signs with Rangers

Anthony Stalter — Wed, 09 Dec 2009 23:10:54 +0000

After posting a 4.38 team ERA in 2009, the Texas Rangers want pitching to become a focal point during the winter meetings and throughout the offseason. That’s why on Wednesday, the Rangers signed free agent right-hander Rich Harden, formerly of the Chicago Cubs.

According to Craig Calcaterra of NBCSports.com, the deal is for one year at $7.5 million and also comes with an $11.5 million option for 2011. The 28-year old posted a 4.06 ERA, a 1.32 WHIP and an outstanding 10.9 K/9 in 26 starts in 2009.

The book on Harden is simple: He’s great when he’s healthy, but he his career has been sidetracked by various injuries. He has dominating stuff, but he’s almost always a candidate to be placed on the DL at some point during the season.

Still, the Rangers did to acquire Harden, especially considering that Kevin Millwood might soon be heading to the Baltimore Orioles. If (and this is a big if) Harden can stay healthy, he’ll provide a much-needed lift to Texas’ starting rotation next season.

Photo from fOTOGLIF

Hot Stove Rumors: Lackey, Guerrero & Doumit

Anthony Stalter — Fri, 13 Nov 2009 17:45:51 +0000

The Red Sox are interested in John Lackey
According to Michael Silverman of the Boston Herald, the Red Sox met with John Lackey’s agent at the GM meetings last week in Chicago. Lackey, 31, went 11-8 this season with a 3.83 ERA, 1.27 WHIP and 139 strikeouts but he also battled elbow issues.

The Rangers are showing interest in Vladimir Guerrero
Already stacked with hitters, the Rangers have shown interest in free agent DH Vlad Guerrero according to FOXSports.com. If Texas can afford him, Vlad would be an ideal fit just based on his .394 batting average in 50 career games at Rangers Ballpark in Arlington.

The Pirates may be open to trading Ryan Doumit
According to FOXSports.com, the Pirates are considering trading catcher Ryan Doumit, who hit .250 last season with 10 home runs and 38 RBI in 280 at-bats. He is set to earn $3.55 million in 2010 and $5.1 million in 2011 and could draw interest from several teams.

Mariners interested in Harden?
According to the Seattle Times, the Mariners have interest in Rich Harden, who went 9-9 with a 4.09 ERA and 1.34 WHIP for the Cubs last season. Despite battling injuries, he was successful in five seasons in the AL with the A’s.

Thome returning to Chicago?
According to the Chicago Tribune, Jim Thome said that he would love to return to the White Sox, who traded him to the Dodgers at the deadline last season. Thome is a Peoria, Illinois native.

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Twins unlikely to land Rich Harden

Anthony Stalter — Mon, 31 Aug 2009 15:44:06 +0000

Even though they officially put a waiver claim on him last week, the Twins are unlikely to land Cubs’ starter Rich Harden according to a report by the Minneapolis Star-Tribune.

As of late Sunday night, the Twins had yet to request Cubs pitcher Rich Harden’s medical records, a person close to Harden told the Star Tribune, adding that a deal by today’s noon deadline appeared unlikely.

Harden, 27, has been on the disabled list seven times since 2005, so it would be uncharacteristic for the Twins to trade for him without first examining those medical records.

Then again, in eight starts since July 16, Harden is 3-1 with a 1.80 ERA, so it’s possible the Twins could roll the dice, giving the Cubs the prospects it would take to land Harden for the season’s final five weeks. Harden is a pending Type A free agent, so a team could offer him arbitration after the season and be compensated with two high picks in the 2010 draft if he signed with another team.

If the Cubs were to trade Harden, there’s no doubt that they would want a major package of prospects in return. Considering the Twins covet young prospects (all young prospects), a deal seems unlikely.

Still, if a trade were to go down, Minnesota would be adding a quality (albeit injury-prone) starter to their rotation. Chicago would lose Harden, who they acquired mid-season last year in hopes he would form a great 1-2 punch with Carlos Zambrano at the top of their rotation, but would go a long way in restocking their farm system.

The two sides have until 1:00 p.m. ET today to get a deal done.

Update: ESPN Chicago is reporting that Harden is staying in Chicago.

Padres’ Peavy could be traded to White Sox

Anthony Stalter — Thu, 21 May 2009 13:54:27 +0000

According to a report by the San Diego Union Tribune, a trade between the Padres and White Sox involving ace Jake Peavy could be imminent. The roadblocks appear to be whether or not Peavy would waive his no-trade clause and whether or not he wants to play for manager Ozzie Guillen, which apparently he has reservations about.

The question becomes: whom would the Sox have to give up in order to acquire Peavy? The Padres need middle infielders, so Chris Getz and Brent Lillibridge could be involved in the talks, but hopefully for White Sox fans, top shortstop prospect Gordon Beckham isn’t.

If San Diego has its sights set on pitching (which is certainly a possibility given the division and park it plays in), Chicago might be willing to part with Aaron Poreda and Clayton Richard, although more mid-to-low-level prospects would likely have to be included as well.

If they were able to swing a deal, the Chi-Sox rotation would look incredibly strong with Peavy, Mark Buerhle, Gavin Floyd and John Danks leading the way. And considering they’re only 5.5 games back in the AL Central and we haven’t even reached the All-Star Break yet, a trade like this could sling them right back into contention.

Another thing to keep an eye on is whether or not this wakes up the other team in Chicago. The Cubs are in win-now mode, but thanks to injuries and inconsistent play, they find themselves currently three games behind the Brewers in the NL Central. Ace Carlos Zambrano is currently on the DL and how long before Rich Harden pays his old friend a visit, too? If Peavy doesn’t waive his no-trade clause to join the White Sox, maybe the Cubs will re-enter trade talks with the Padres.

Update: The two teams have agreed on a deal, but Peavy has to sign off on it because of his no-trade clause.

2009 MLB Preview: #4 Chicago Cubs

Anthony Stalter — Fri, 27 Mar 2009 21:00:45 +0000

Click Here to see Previews of all 30 MLB Teams

Offseason Movement: The Cubs were seemingly hosed by the Indians in a trade that sent ultra-utility player Mark DeRosa to Cleveland in exchange for minor league pitching prospects Jeff Stevens, Chris Archer and John Gaub, none of which were viewed as top 10 prospects in the Tribe’s organization. But maybe one of those youngsters will emerge as a quality arm down the road and DeRosa’s contract does expire at the end of the season so at least the Cubs got something for him. Chicago also added volatile outfielder Milton Bradley, reliever Kevin Gregg and pitcher Aaron Heilman, who will move to the bullpen after losing out to Sean Marshall this spring for the Cubs’ fifth spot in the rotation.

Top Prospect: Josh Vitters, 3B
This club is loaded with quality prospects, including reliever Jeff Samardzija, shortstop Ryan Flaherty and outfielder Tyler Colvin. But Vitters appears to be the best of group, with his excellent plate approach, outstanding hand-eye coordination and natural swing. Thus far in Single-A, Vitters is hitting .357 and slugging .529 in 70 at bats. At only 19, he still has a ways to go before he’ll make his big league debut, but Vitters appears to have quite a future ahead of him.

The Big Question: Will the bullpen be the Achilles Heel?
The Cubs allowed Kerry Wood to jettison to Cleveland in the offseason, but ~~signed free agent~~ traded for Kevin Gregg to compete with 26-year old Carlos Marmol for the right to be the club’s closer this season. Manager Lou Piniella is expected to announce who his closer will be soon, but if he’s basing the decision on spring performance, Gregg should earn the job. That said, Marmol clearly has the more electric stuff, but has been erratic and inconsistent when given opportunities. Prized prospect Jeff Samardzija is also expected to see time as a late-inning reliever, but he’s been brutal so far in spring training and might need more seasoning in Triple-A. Long relief is where this club could have issues, as Luis Vizcaino (27 ER in 46 IP last year), Chad Gaudin and Angel Guzman (6.00 ERA in 96 IP) all come with their flaws. But ~~free agent signing~~ Aaron Heilman (acquired via trade with Seattle) should help in that category and hey, at least there’s no chance of Bob Howry making any appearances after he signed with San Francisco in the offseason. The offense and starting pitching is solid, but perhaps the key to the Cubs’ success this year will rest upon the arms in the bullpen.

Outlook: I’ll save Cub fans the aggravation of reading another preview dedicated to curses, Billy goats and failed expectations. I’m sure they’ve already gotten enough of that from every other sports site and blog on the net. The bottom line is that the Cubs are built to win now and have one of the strongest rotations in the NL, led by a three-headed monster in Carlos Zambrano, Ryan Dempster and Rich Harden. The lineup is also one of the most balanced in baseball and while losing Mark DeRosa hurt, the signing of Milton Bradley (when healthy and taking meds) added a quality bat to the middle of the order. The bullpen has some question marks, but as long as Kevin Gregg or Carlos Marmol are reliable in the closers role, then the Cubs should win the NL Central and make another postseason appearance. Once they’re there, who knows? This club hasn’t shown the mental fortitude to win in the postseason but that doesn’t mean it can’t do it this year. As long as guys like Aramis Ramirez, Geovany Soto and Alfonso Soriano continue to produce, the Cubbies will once again give themselves the opportunity to win a World Series title.

Projection: 1st NL Central