Five spreads of note:

Packers –5.5 @ Falcons, 8:20PM ET Sunday
The Packers return to the Georgia Dome roughly eight months after Aaron Rodgers and Co. burned it down back in January (metaphorically, of course). This line opened at 4 but is already up to 5.5 as public bettors continue to hammer the Packers, who beat the Falcons 48-21 in Atlanta during the Divisional Round playoffs last season. It’ll be interesting to see how far this spread climbs before the sharps come in and start pushing it back down. There’s no reason to believe the Falcons can hang with the Packers with the way they’ve looked in the early going, but at some point they become a value as a home dog. Will the line reach 6.5 or even 7 points?

Bears +5.5 @ Lions, 8:30PM ET, Monday
This is one of the more intriguing lines on the Week 5 schedule because it should get plenty of two-way action for sports books. The public is swarming to get a taste of that Lions Kool-Aid, but this spread is rather high for a divisional game. The Bears didn’t play well in their only road test of the season (Week 2 at New Orleans), but they’re an attractive play at 5.5. In fact, the opening line was Detroit –6 so the spread is already moving in Chicago’s direction.

Jets +9.5 @ Patriots, 4:15PM ET
Even though the Jets have looked awful the last two weeks, the road team is 18-7-1 against the number in the last 26 meetings between these two teams and you know Rex Ryan’s squad will be hyped for this one. The Patriots steamrolled the Jets 45-3 in New England last season but Gang Green returned the favor with a 28-21 victory in New York one month later. This is always an intriguing matchup and it’ll be interesting to see if the public pushes the line up to the key number of 10 or if sports books will leave the spread at 9.5 to entice plenty of two-way action.

Saints –6.5 @ Panthers, 1:00PM ET
This line is intriguing because of three reasons: 1) Cam Newton, 2) it’s a divisional game and 3) the Saints tend to play things more conservatively on the road than they do at home. While they covered last week against the Jaguars, they certainly didn’t blow them out. Now they go on the road for the second straight week to play a Carolina team that has covered the spread the past three weeks. The public seems to be backing New Orleans but Newton and the Panthers could certainly keep things close, especially when you consider that the Saints are 1-5 ATS in their last six games against Carolina.

Chiefs +1.5 @ Colts, 1:00PM ET
What do you do with this game? The Colts are 0-4 but are coming off two-straight covers despite having Curtis Painter under center. Assuming Painter holds onto the starting job (he should with how abysmal Kerry Collins looked in the early going), the Colts might be the play at –1.5. That said, the Chiefs finally got their offense going last week in Minnesota and maybe their situation has finally stabilized. With the spread highly unlikely to climb to the key number of 3, it might be best to stay far, far away from this one.

All Week 5 Point Spreads:

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Every Sunday evening throughout the 2011 NFL season I’ll compile quick-hit reactions from the day that was in football. I vow to always overreact, side with sensationalism over rationalism, and draw conclusions based on small sample sizes instead of cold, hard facts. It’s the only way I know how to write…

DIDN’T SEE THAT COMING…

- There were certainly plenty of people who saw the Lions going down to Dallas and beating a sub par Cowboys team. But did anyone seem them getting down by 24 points and having to rally for the second straight week on the road? This team is legit and I can’t wait to see how they’ll fare in a couple weeks when they play the Packers. The best part about seeing the Lions go 4-0 is that I know Tom “Killer” Kowalski is watching somewhere. Killer had been the Lions beat writer for MLive.com over the last two decades before abruptly passing away in his home before the season started. Him and I worked together at WDFN in Detroit and while he’s greatly missed, there’s no way he’s missing Lions mania right now. They’re finally doing it, Killer…

- When I previewed Week 4 on Thursday I wrote about how Sunday’s trip to Cincinnati was going to be a good test for the Bills, even though they were playing a 1-2 Bengals team. I wrote that because the Bills were coming off an emotional win against the Patriots and now had to travel to play a team they were expected to beat. I even told my father that this was the day the Bills lose their first game. When they took a 17-3 lead I was ready to eat my words but in a blink of an eye, the Bengals were kicking a game-winning field goal to improve to 2-2 on the season. The Bills are a good young team but they’re not good enough to overlook any opponent.

- You know, it’s rather amazing. The lockout was supposed to hurt teams with new coaching staffs and yet the 49ers are 3-1 under Jim Harbaugh and could have very easily been 4-0 had they not collapsed against Dallas in Week 2. It’s a long season but what a great job he’s done so far making the transition from Stanford to the pros. When they were down 23-3 today in Philadelphia, the Niners could have easily packed it in. But they didn’t and I think that’s a testament to Harbaugh. What a great day for comebacks and what a great win for San Fran.

- Cam Newton almost threw for 400 yards again – and against Chicago, no less. I thought he would struggle against the Bears’ Tampa 2 and he did throw a pick-six early in the game. But man-oh-man is he an athletic marvel. At this point I guess I should stop including him in the “Didn’t See that Coming” section, but I continue to be amazed at what this kid can do so early in his career.

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Panthers @ Bears, 1:00PM ET
Jay Cutler admitted on Wednesday that the pressure he’s facing on a weekly basis is starting to affect him. This of course prompted ESPN’s “First Take” to discuss whether or not there is too much crying coming from quarterbacks. You know what? I’m with Cutler. The offensive line has one job to do in pass protection: Protect the quarterback. If the front five isn’t doing their job then how does anyone believe Cutler can do his?

Bills @ Bengals, 1:00PM ET
If I’m a Bills fan I’m on top of the world right now but I’d also be a little leery about this Sunday. You’re coming off an emotion come-from-behind win against the Patriots last week at home and now you have to travel to Cincinnati to play a Bengals team that is more competitive than people think. Don’t get me wrong: this is a game Buffalo should win. But beware the letdown.

Titans @ Browns, 1:00PM ET
Apparently the Titans are considering splitting out Chris Johnson more as a receiver in the weeks ahead. Hey Tennessee, how about you figure out why Johnson is only rushing for 2.1 yards per carry at his normal position before trying him out at another one?

Lions @ Cowboys, 1:0oPM ET
After surrendering 20 points to the Vikings in the first half last week by blitzing heavily, Lions head coach Jim Schwartz said his defense is unlikely to send extra defenders in Week 4. Of course, if Cowboys’ center Phil Costa is as bad snapping the ball on Sunday as he was on Monday night against the Redskins, the Lions won’t need to blitz much.

Vikings @ Chiefs, 1:00PM ET
When asked on Wednesday how his team is going to fix the struggles it’s been having in the second half of games, Minnesota head coach Leslie Frazier responded with: “There’s a second half?”

Redskins @ Rams, 1:00PM ET
It’s funny, in preseason this was the only game on the Rams’ brutal first-half schedule that people figured would be a sure win. But Washington is 2-1 and certainly has enough offensive firepower to hand St. Louis its fourth straight loss. (Not that that “firepower” showed up in Dallas on Monday night.)

49ers @ Eagles, 1:00PM ET
Michael Vick is 100% sure that he’s going to play this Sunday against the 49ers. He’s about 10% sure that he’s going to finish it, however.

Saints @ Jaguars, 1:00PM ET
With so much attention being paid to the feel-good Lions and Bills, hardly anyone is talking about how the Saints have scored 30-plus points in all three of their games this year. I’m telling you: Don’t sleep on New Orleans this year. They have issues on defense but this is a Super Bowl-caliber team again.

Steelers @ Texans, 1:00PM ET
Here’s a perfect opportunity for the Texans to notch that one signature win that can build confidence in them the rest of the season. They nearly knocked off the Saints last weekend in New Orleans before running out of gas in the fourth quarter. With Arian Foster set to return this week, a win over the Steelers could do wonders for a team that still hasn’t proven that it belongs among the top teams in the AFC.

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Every Sunday evening throughout the 2011 NFL season I’ll compile quick-hit reactions from the day that was in football. I vow to always overreact, side with sensationalism over rationalism, and draw conclusions based on small sample sizes instead of cold, hard facts. It’s the only way I know how to write…

DIDN’T SEE THAT COMING…

- Raise your hand if you had the Bills sitting atop the AFC East standings alone after Week 3. I can hear someone right now: “Actually, I did call the Bills being 3-0.” LIAR! Nobody had the Bills at 3-0 because that would mean they would have had to beat the Patriots at home in Week 3 and pfff, like that was going to happen. Well, it did happen. Not unlike last Sunday against the Raiders, the Bill spotted the Patriots a 21-0 lead and then proceeded to storm back, intercepting Tom Brady four times as Ryan Fitzpatrick led the comeback of all comebacks. And what a great decision by Chan Gailey at the end. He knew with the score tied 31-31 and the Bills well within field goal range that he could bleed the clock, kick the field goal and leave Brady with no time to respond. Outstanding coaching move. Outstanding game. Outstanding win.

- I definitely thought the Giants would keep things closer than the 9-points that Vegas gave them heading into Philly, but wow. Didn’t see an outright win coming. With most of his receivers out due to various injuries, Eli Manning had one of the better games of his career. You really have to hand it to the Giants, who were playing on a short week and who have been banged up all year. Instead of lying down like many expected, they took the fight to the Eagles’ front doorsteps and then delivered a knockout in the fourth quarter. I don’t care if Michael Vick stays in this game or not: The Eagles weren’t winning it.

- What do you mean Cam Newton didn’t throw for 400 yards? See, total bust. Just like everyone predicted…

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Oddsmakers have released the point spreads for Week 1 in the NFL. Along with a complete list of odds, here are a couple of games that jump out at me as we head into the opening week in the NFL.

Saints @ Packers, 8:30PM ET, Thursday
The action gets kicked off this season with a matchup between the 2010 Super Bowl champion Packers and the 2009 Super Bowl champion Saints. I envision a rebound year for Drew Brees and the Saints, who added solid depth on both sides of the ball this offseason and drafted a running back in Mark Ingram that could help restore balance to Sean Payton’s offense. The Packers, meanwhile, are coming off a Super Bowl win and will have tight end Jermichael Finley and running back Ryan Grant back from injury. Aaron Rodgers is an absolute stud and should be talked about among the league’s elite. In terms of the odds, the total is set high for a reason but I see this game falling under. In four of the last five season openers the total has fallen under and even though both of these teams can both light up the scoreboard, I don’t think we’ll see either of the Saints or Packers’ best offensive efforts this Thursday. Don’t forget it was a short offseason in terms of season preparation.
ODDS: PACKERS –4 (47)

Colts @ Texans, 1:00PM ET, Sunday
Personally, I think this is the Texans’ year. They went a long way to improve their horrendous defense by hiring Wade Phillips as coordinator and signing free agent corner Jonathan Joseph. Phillips has a knack for turning teams around quickly and I don’t think Houston will be an aberration. Peyton Manning will likely miss Week 1 and that means Kerry Collins will get the nod. If Manning is healthy the Colts are liable to go 12-4 but without him, they could just as easily fall to 4-12. The Texans usually start off the season on fire before fading in the second half. Maybe this year will be different. I see them getting off to a good start and without Manning, this one could be a blowout.
ODDS: TEXANS –9 (45.5)

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Not everyone is a fan of Rex Ryan’s brash behavior. In fact, most non-Jet fans are tired of his act and probably wish he’d shut up already.

As Gary Myers of the New York Daily News writes, this includes Pat Hanlon, the Giants vice president of communications.

Rex Ryan was relentless on two points on the book tour that just wouldn’t end: The Jets are going to win the Super Bowl; and that he basically considers the Giants and their three Super Bowl championships – the last one just three years ago – a whole bunch of yesterday’s news. Pat Hanlon, the Giants vice president of communications, took several shots at Ryan on Twitter, including, “Tom Coughlin wrote a book, too. It was about a team and an HC that won a Super Bowl.”

I don’t mind Rex Ryan in the least. I understand why people are tired of hearing about him and I don’t bemoan anyone for taking on the opinion that he should shut his mouth until he’s won something. But while I don’t know him personally, I get why he says the things that he does. It’s not so much that he’s intentionally trying to piss everyone off; I think he’s an intelligent person and all of his moves are calculated.

That’s not to suggest that he doesn’t believe in what he says. On the contrary: I think he very much believes that the Jets are going to win the Super Bowl every year under his command. And you know what? You need to have that fire and attitude in sports. Nice guys don’t always finish last (look at the Spurs’ dynasty in the NBA over the past decade). But at some point teams need to have that killer instinct and swagger if they’re ever going to raise their game to another level. Ryan’s teams do that thanks in large part to how he treats his players and how he instills confidence in them with what he says.

Granted, Hanlon’s response to Ryan’s book was excellent. The Giants don’t have to take a backseat to anything that Ryan says: They won a Super Bowl in the past five years while the Jets have come up short the past two seasons. Gang Green has had some success under Ryan but Coughlin and Co. has the hardware (which does all of their talking for them).

At some point Ryan needs to win a Super Bowl so his words don’t become just a bunch of hot air (if they haven’t already). But in the meantime, his brash bravado is still intriguing.

In his latest edition of “Monday Morning Quarterback,” SI.com’s Peter King has an interesting tidbit about how Rex Ryan and the Jets wound up choosing Mark Sanchez over Josh Freeman in the 2009 NFL Draft.

Ryan tells an interesting story in the book about pursuing a franchise quarterback once he got the Jets job. The choice came down to USC’s Mark Sanchez and Kansas State’s Josh Freeman. “We sent both of them a mini-playbook and asked them to learn what they could from it before they met with us,” Ryan told me. “They both blew the doors off us when we got them in a room. We’d ask about out formations and bam-bam-bam, they knew it all quick. Both very, very sharp guys.”

But in telling the story in the book, Ryan says one of the factors that swayed the Jets was how Sanchez was regarded by his peers. He said 24 high school and college mates showed up to catch balls for Sanchez. When they’d been to Kansas State to work out Freeman, two of his receivers showed up. “Honestly,” Ryan told me, “that might have been what separated them — the immense respect we sensed from the people who played with Mark and knew him so well.”

While some still have their doubts about Sanchez’s overall abilities, the Jets’ decision worked out for not only them, but the Bucs as well. In two seasons, Sanchez has led Gang Green to back-to-back AFC title game appearances and Freeman has the Bucs on the cusp of making the playoffs as well. It’s not a stretch to think that both teams are happy with the way the situation turned out.

It’s always interesting to hear how teams go about scouting prospects and inevitably how they decide on a player. It may sound rather obtuse for Ryan to make a decision on a franchise quarterback based on how many people showed up to the prospect’s workout, but sometimes that’s what it comes down to. Atlanta GM Thomas Dimitroff ultimately made the final decision to choose Matt Ryan over defensive tackle Glenn Dorsey because Ryan blew him away in the interview room – not on film. Granted, Ryan’s on-field abilities also factored heavily into the decision. But Dimitroff trusted his gut after interviewing the former Boston College product and while some in Atlanta wanted Dorsey, obviously the GM made the right decision in the end to go with Ryan.

This isn’t to suggest that an interview with a prospective player is something to be overlooked. But sometimes for teams it comes down to the simplest of factors when it comes to deciding on a prospect.

There have been a couple of interesting reports surrounding the Jets over the last couple of days, specifically their receiving corps.

On Saturday, Santonio Holmes told ESPN New York’s Rich Cimini that he won’t sign his restricted free agent tender if the 2010 work rules remain in place for 2011. The Jets placed a first-and-third-round restricted free agent tender on Holmes last month, but he says he wants a long-term deal and will sign with the highest bidder if he hits the open market as an unrestricted free agent.

On Tuesday, Greg A. Bedard of the Boston Globe noted that Randy Moss could eventually wind up in a Jets uniform this year.

Randy Moss in a Jets uniform? It could happen. Among several free agents, the Jets have receivers Santonio Holmes and Braylon Edwards. They have said re-signing Holmes is a priority. Edwards would likely have to agree to a contract with the Jets that might be less than market value. And he might very well balk at that and cash in elsewhere. Enter Moss, another big target. Only one team, the Titans, put in a claim for him when he was released by the Vikings. And considering his performance in Tennessee, most teams aren’t going to waste their time with a 34-year-old receiver with diminishing skills, let alone one who’s known as a problem child. But coach Rex Ryan could be interested. Ryan has enough cachet where he could keep Moss in line, and the Jets would probably enjoy tweaking the Patriots. Ryan spoke highly of Moss last month. “Randy Moss, I’ve said all along, is a great vertical receiver,’’ Ryan said at the owners’ meetings. “And you have to roll coverage. Most teams would have to roll coverage to him. We never did, but we got burned for a touchdown. But he was a weapon. A vertical weapon down the field.’’ Curiously, when Ryan began to speak about Moss, he checked first with team spokesman Bruce Speight to see if it would be tampering.

Even though Moss would probably sign a one-year deal for cheap (assuming he even wants to play for Ryan and the Jets), I don’t see how New York can sign Holmes, Edwards and Moss in one offseason. And why would they want to? This isn’t “Madden” and there’s only one football to go around.

Receiver will be a priority this offseason, but the Jets also need help at defensive end, linebacker and guard, too. Giving Holmes a long-term deal, signing Moss for cheap and allowing Edwards to walk probably makes the most sense (again, assuming that both Moss and the Jets are interested in each other). That would allow the Jets to concentrate on other areas as well.

Pardon the cliché but there are three things we can all count on in life: Death, taxes and Rex Ryan making a bold statement when he has a microphone in front of his face.

At his press conference on Thursday from the NFL scouting combine in Indianapolis, Ryan told the media: “I thought we were going to win the Super Bowl the first two years. I guarantee we’ll win it this year.”

Ah, whatever. Wake me when Mike Smith, Lovie Smith or another one of the more conservative coaches guarantees a Super Bowl victory for their team. Ryan could show the media the most intricate details about how he’s going to rob a bank tomorrow and I would just shrug my shoulders and say, “Oh that crazy Rex Ryan. Always talking.”

Still, I’ve said it once and I’ll say it again: I think Rex Ryan is good for the NFL. The stuffy MLB doesn’t want to let Mark Cuban anywhere near the game of baseball, which I think is a shame. I take my sports as seriously as the next guy, but in the end it’s just entertainment. While they can get on people’s nerves at times, guys like Ryan and Cuban entertain people, which is good.

I’d rather listen to Ryan guarantee Super Bowl victories, watch him dress up like his brother Rob or even talk about his recent appearance on CSI then be fed the same cookie-cutter responses from the other 31 head coaches. What did Ron Rivera say on Thursday that anyone didn’t expect him to? “We are exploring a quarterback (at No. 1).” No sh*t, even though you have Jimmy Clausen atop your depth chart right now?

By no means is that a knock on Rivera, I’m just pointing out that I like a little spice with my meal. I like that Ryan just went Broadway Joe Namath on everybody, even though the act will probably eventually get tired.

Here are five quick-hit observations on the Steelers’ 24-19 win over the Jets in the AFC Championship Game on Sunday.

1. Mendenhall ran like he was mad at the ground.
I’m not sure I’ve ever seen Rashard Mendenhall run with more determination than he did Sunday night. He shredded the Jets for 95 rushing yards in the first half and finished with 121 yards on 27 carries and one touchdown. He also caught two passes for 32 yards and would have scored on one of those receptions had he stayed on his feet. He now has three touchdowns this postseason and has provided the Steelers’ offense with balance. Against the Jets, he rarely went down on first contact and he flashed terrific speed on a 35-yard jaunt in the first half. No running back has ever rushed for more yards against the Jets since Rex Ryan took over as head coach in 2009. Mendenhall set the tone for Pittsburgh’s win.

2. Bruce Arians shows some stones.
Pittsburgh fans have had a roller coaster relationship with offensive coordinator Bruce Arians over the years, but they had to have loved his gutsy 3rd and 6 pass call with less than two minutes remaining. How many times do teams run the ball in that situation, get stopped, punt and then have to rely on their defense to close out the game? Arians knows he has a great defense so if the clock is stopped because of an incompletion, so what? But thanks to Ben Roethlisberger’s 14-yard competition to Antonio Brown (how big has this kid been the last two weeks?), the Steelers were able to pick up a first down and run the rest of the clock out. They didn’t even give the Jets an opportunity to win. Great call.

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