CBSSports.com’s Mike Freeman says that “everyone” he’s spoken to in the NFL believes if Peyton Manning becomes a free agent the Redskins will sign him.

Here’s what Freeman wrote:

7. Look for Peyton Manning and Jim Irsay to meet within the next 48 hours — if they already haven’t done so secretly. Manning, I’m told, wanted some time to pass before meeting with Irsay so his brother could celebrate his championship in peace. Manning knows the minute he and Irsay meet, it’ll become public (mainly because Manning or his agent will leak their side of it).

8. Speaking of Peyton, everyone I speak to in the NFL — and I mean just about everyone — believes if Manning becomes a free agent, the Washington Redskins will sign him.

ESPN’s Adam Schefter said on Tuesday that the favorites “in my mind” to land Manning are the Dolphins, while John Clayton noted that Cardinals owner Bill Bidwell will balk on signing Peyton after committing $65 million and $21.5 million guaranteed to Kevin Kolb last offseason.

For what it’s worth, oddsmakers list the Cardinals (+200) as the favorites to have Peyton Manning on their roster in 2013, while the Redskins (+250) have the next best odds (+250) followed by the Dolphins.

I would keep my eye on the Jets as well. Rex Ryan has often been infatuated with beating Manning over the years and it’s not like the Jets have a starting quarterback currently on their roster…

…

…ZING!

There have been several coaching changes that have taken place in the NFL this week. Here’s the latest news from around the league.

Sparano now the offensive coordinator for the Jets
Following the resignation of Brian Schottenheimer on Tuesday night, the Jets moved quickly by hiring former Dolphins head coach Tony Sparano offensive coordinator on Wednesday. Sparano called plays with the Cowboys in 2006 and his style matches that of Rex Ryan’s “ground ‘n’ pound” philosophy. There was also a report from the New York Daily News on Wednesday that several players and members of the organization have doubts about whether Mark Sanchez has enough ability to succeed at quarterback. Apparently some want the team to pursue Peyton Manning if he were to become available this offseason.

Raiders dump Jackson after one season.
The Raiders have fired head coach Hue Jackson, believes owner Mark Davis and not new GM Reggie McKenzie was at the root of his termination. “I would be hard-pressed to find a guy who didn’t like Hue,” receiver T.J. Houshmandzadeh said. “I’ll bet you San Diego, Kansas City and Denver like this move, because we would have been good next year with Hue.” The Raiders will be searching for their 34th head coach in the past five seasons.

“Marty Ball” coming to Tampa?
The Bucs interviewed 68-year-old Marty Schottenheimer for their vacant head-coaching position on Tuesday. He’s 200-126-1 during the regular season but just 5-13 in the postseason, which has bread the moniker “Marty Ball.” While he often does a fantastic job rebuilding teams, he’s been heavily criticized for his conservatism and brutal coaching during the postseason. According to SI.com’s Jim Trotter, Marty’s son Brian will not be joining the Bucs’ staff if Marty lands the head-coaching job.

Haley heading back to the desert?
The Cardinals have apparently spoken to ex-Chiefs head coach Todd Haley about possibly returning to Arizona, although it’s not known at this point if a) Haley is interested and b) what position he would hold. It’s worth noting that the Cardinals fired quarterbacks coach Chris Miller on Tuesday, so maybe the team is already in the process of making room for their former offensive coordinator.

Jaguars hire Mularkey, Falcons need to replace both coordinators.
Following the Falcons’ embarrassing 24-2 loss to the Giants on Sunday, defensive coordinator Brian VanGorder left the organization Monday to accept the same role at the University of Auburn. On Tuesday night, offensive coordinator Mike Mularkey was hired as head coach of the Jaguars, leaving the Falcons with two positions to fill. Jack Del Rio’s name has been mentioned as a potential replacement for VanGorder but as of this time, nobody has been mentioned as a potential suitor for Mularkey. (The options are limitless, although if I were the Falcons I’d scoop up Hue Jackson in heartbeat.)

Gruden staying in Cincinnati.
Bengals’ offensive coordinator Jay Gruden confirmed on Wednesday that he won’t be interview for any open head-coaching jobs this offseason. “I’m new to this. If I’d been in the league 25 years, I would have interviewed,” Gruden told the media. “I just wanted to put it to bed and move on with what we’ve got going here.” Noble might not be the best word to describe Gruden’s decision to stay put but it’s nice to see that a coach wants to grow as a coordinator before rushing off to be a head coach.

Colts find their new GM.
The Colts hired Eagles director of player personnel Ryan Grigson as their next general manager according to ESPN’s Adam Schefter. Grigson is highly regarded in the scouting community and was the runner-up to Howie Roseman for the Eagles’ GM job in 2010. He’ll replace Bill Polian in Indianapolis.

Bears promote Mike Tice to offensive coordinator.
This transaction actually happened last week but it was worth noting in this piece. Tice did a nice job maximizing the talent that former GM Jerry Angelo got him along the offensive line (that’s a nice way of saying that Tice didn’t have much to work with), but he’s not much of a game-planner. Chances are he’ll manage the running game and the Bears will seek another coach to coordinate their passing attack. If you’re confused, so are most Chicago fans.

Every Tuesday I’ll take a look at the five biggest questions surrounding NFL teams for that week. This week I take a look at the huge Monday night matchup in the NFC South, the “Battle for New York” and the late-pushing Chargers.

1. Can the Falcons be the team to slow the Saints?
The Saints have looked unbeatable the past six weeks. If there’s one team that could knock off the Packers in the playoffs, it’s universally believed to be New Orleans . While they’ve been inconsistent and conservative on the road at times, they’ve been unstoppable on their home turf. Considering they already knocked off the Falcons in Atlanta earlier this year, what makes anyone think the Saints will lose on Monday night when they host their biggest rivals on primetime? For starters, the Falcons have looked like a completely different team since they faced a 23-7 deficit in Carolina two weeks ago. They scored 24 unanswered points to beat the Panthers and then turned around four days later and humiliated the Jaguars in every facet of the game last Thursday. Granted, beating Carolina and Jacksonville is a little less daunting than bringing down the Saints in New Orleans . But if Matt Ryan and the Falcons have finally found some consistency offensively thanks to their no-huddle attack, then there’s no reason to believe Atlanta can’t go score-for-score with the Saints on Monday. Remember, this isn’t the same opportunistic defense that the Saints had in 2009 when they won the Super Bowl. The Falcons should be able to move the ball with their assortment of weapons. But again, beating Brees on his home turf will be Atlanta ’s toughest task of the year. If they can pull it off, the Falcons won’t just have a shot to win the NFC South – they’ll have confidence that they can beat anyone.

2. Which New York team will rise to the challenge?
Despite their epic fail in Philadelphia over the weekend, the Jets are still in good shape in the AFC (where they’re currently the sixth seed in the conference). But considering Rex Ryan’s defense just allowed 45 points to the Eagles and Mark Sanchez is still their quarterback, the Jets can’t feel too good about their present situation. The same can be said for the Giants, who failed to show up last Sunday against the Redskins. Their 23-10 loss to Washington came just seven days after their huge 37-34 win over the Cowboys (a win that allowed them to temporarily claim first place in the NFC East), so it was more than a little surprising that the G-Men didn’t bother to get up for Rex Grossman and Co. Searching for answers, the Giants will now put their playoff hopes on the line against a Jet team in a similar boat. At this point, it’s hard to figure out which team has an advantage, or if there’s even one to be had. If Eli Manning takes care of the football and the Giant defense shuts down Shonn Greene, then the G-Men shouldn’t have any problems collecting a huge victory. But the Giants never make anything easy, so flip a coin when it comes to which team will show up on Saturday. Whichever one does is going to have a shot at playing beyond next week, while the loser is potentially looking at a long offseason.

3. Can the Chargers make things really interesting in the AFC West?
The Chargers, those sand-bagging sons of bitches, are now just one game behind the Broncos in the AFC West after rattling off three consecutive wins. Just a few weeks ago Norv Turner looked like he was heading for the unemployment line and now San Diego has a legitimate shot of catching Denver in the division. That said, the Bolts have a tough task this Saturday. They play a Lions team with playoff aspirations of its own, and even if the Bolts can take care of their own business they still need Denver to lose in Buffalo. But we’ve seen a run like this before out of San Diego. In 2008 they were sitting at 4-8 before rattling off four straight wins to sneak into the playoffs and wound up upsetting the Colts in the Wild Card round before losing to the Steelers the following week. Thus, if there’s a team that could make things interesting not only in the AFC West but in the entire conference, it’s the Bolts. So strap in tight: Turner’s boys still have life.

4. Will the AFC North crown be decided in the final week?
To answer my own question, I’m sure it will. The Steelers host the hapless Rams this Saturday while the Ravens host the punchless Browns. Neither Pittsburgh nor Baltimore are expected to lose, so first place in the division will come down to the final week. But something of note is how inept the Steelers looked offensively on Monday night. Granted, San Francisco has one of the top defenses in the league but Pittsburgh continues to struggle on the offensive side of the ball. Outside of a 35-point effort against the Bengals in Week 13, the Steelers have managed just 13, 35, 14 and 3 points in their last four games. Ben Roethlisberger didn’t look right against the Niners on that bad ankle, which could severely affect the Steelers’ chances of repeating as AFC champions. While their defense is still solid, there’s no denying that Pittsburgh’s offense is in a funk. And if they can’t wrangle home field advantage away from the Ravens these next two weeks then Pittsburgh has a tough roe to hoe come playoff time.

5. Will the top seeds in both conferences be decided after this week?
All the Packers need to do to clinch the No. 1 seed in the NFC is beat the Bears on Sunday night, which they should. But there could be some jockeying for the No. 2 and No. 3 seeds in the conference these next two weeks as the Niners and Saints are each tied at 11-3. While the Saints have a tough game against the Falcons on Monday night, the Niners play a rejuvenated Seahawks team in Seattle on Saturday. Thus, it’s possible that we could see a one-game separation between San Fran and New Orleans for the right to have home field advantage and a first round bye. In the AFC, the Patriots have moved ahead of the Ravens and Texans for the moment, but they still need to win out or have Baltimore or Houston lose. The Patriots host the Dolphins and Bills these next two weeks, so it’s very likely that New England will be the top seed. Baltimore hosts Cleveland and Houston plays at Indy so there may not be a change between the Ravens (who are the No. 2 seed by virtue of tiebreakers) and the Texans (who are the No. 3 seed) this week.

A personal thank you goes out to the Bengals and Panthers for blowing decent leads at home versus the Texans and Falcons last week, and to the Bucs and Raiders as well, who never bothered to get off their respective planes in Jacksonville and Green Bay. With their powers combined, the Bengals, Panthers, Bucs and Raiders contributed to my 0-4 Sunday in Week 15. That hideousness dropped my season record to 24-29-2 with just three weeks to go to try and get over .500. The true season starts now, folks. It’s time for me to make my own version of a playoff run…

Redskins @ Giants, 1:00PM ET
September 11, 2011, the Giants walk into FedEx Field and walk out with a 28-14 loss to the Rex Grossman-led Redskins. October 9, 2011, the Giants host the Seahawks after nearly losing to the Cardinals in Arizona the week before and are crushed by Seattle, 36-25. October 30, 2011, the Giants barely squeak by the then-winless Dolphins, 20-17. November 20, 2011, the Giants lose 17-10 as a 6-point favorite to the Vince Young-lead Eagles. Whenever you think the Giants should win, run the other way. They’ve played down to their competition all year and while I realize the NFC East is on the line for NY, the Skins have already proven that they can beat the Giants and have nothing to lose. They’ve also been more competitive with Grossman at the controls than John Beck so while I don’t think Washington will win, I like the Skins to keep things close.
THE PICK: REDSKINS +6.5

Saints @ Vikings, 1:00PM ET
The Vikings nearly knocked off the Lions last Sunday thanks to Joe Webb and they’ll have Adrian Peterson back this week against a New Orleans team that hasn’t looked sharp on the road this year. But unless Peterson transformed into the second coming of Deion Sanders over these past couple of weeks, then Minnesota will have a hard time keeping up with Drew Brees today. The Saints’ passing game versus the Vikings’ pass defense is one of the biggest mismatches of Week 15. I’m hesitant to lay 7.5 points on the Saints when they’ve been pretty average on the road this year but they should open up things today at the Metrodome.
THE PICK: SAINTS –7.5

Jets @ Eagles, 4:15PM ET
The Jets would be the sixth and final seed in the AFC if the playoffs were to start today but the problem is that the playoffs don’t start today. And with Tennessee, Cincinnati and San Diego still nipping at New York’s heels, Rex Ryan and Co. need to play their best football today in Philly. While I don’t trust Mark Sanchez as far as I can heave him, the Jets’ running game looks like it’s finally starting to take shape and Ryan’s defense should give Michael Vick fits. Given how inconsistent the Eagles have been this season, three points seems like a gift.
THE PICK: JETS +3

Patriots @ Broncos, 4:15PM ET
I fully expect Denver’s defense to play well again this week but eventually the Patriots will figure things out and score their 20-plus points. The question is whether or not Tim Tebow and the Broncos will be able to keep pace. At this point it’s probably foolish to doubt Denver’s ability to pull off the upset but I think the Pats will serve the Broncos a very rude awakening today.
THE PICK: PATRIOTS –7.5

Check out the most current NFL Betting Lines.

MARQUE MATCHUP: Patriots vs. Broncos, 4:15PM ET, Sunday
For the Broncos, this matchup with the Patriots is more than just about this game. It’s about seeing how well they stack up against one of the best in the AFC. Granted, during the Broncos’ current six-game winning streak they’ve beaten the Raiders, Jets, and Chargers, who are three teams still vying for a playoff berth in the conference. But Tom Brady and Co. is obviously a different animal. If Denver’s defense can’t keep guys like Brady and Rob Gronkowski in check, will Tim Tebow and the Bronco offense step up? Will Tebow be able to make plays through the air? Will his receivers win their individual matchups and actually catch the ball? Even though Denver now has the inside track to a playoff berth, doubts still remain about Tebow’s ability to win when he usually doesn’t even warm up until the fourth quarter. This will be a great test for a Denver team that still has plenty to prove.

THE POTENITAL (NOTEWORTHY) UPSET: Redskins over Giants, 1:00PM ET, Sunday
While the victory did come at home, Washington has already beaten New York once this season. Eli Manning threw one interception and no touchdowns while Rex Grossman completed 21-of-34 passes for 305 yards and two scores in the Redskins’ 28-14 victory in Week 1. The Skins have lost two in a row and eight of their last nine but they’re clearly a more competitive team with Grossman under center than John Beck. The Giants are currently the owners of first place in the NFC East by virtue of their win over the Cowboys last Sunday night. But the Giants have made a habit out of playing down to their competition all season. Even with a playoff berth on the line, Tom Coughlin’s squad always seems primed for an upset.

THE GOLDEN OPPORTUNITY: DALLAS COWBOYS
The Cowboys have a chance to beat the Bucs on Saturday night and then sit back on Sunday and hope the Redskins can upset the Giants to give them a one-game lead again in the NFC East. There’s simply no excuse for Dallas to lose to Tampa Bay. The Bucs have lost seven in a row and are coming off a defeat in which they allowed 41 points to a horrendous Jacksonville offense. Raheem Morris is now on the hot seat and the Bucs don’t have the weapons to slow the Cowboys down on either side of the ball. True, Tampa will have home field advantage but how many Bucs fans will show up to Raymond James on Saturday night to root on a 4-9 team? The Bucs have a hard enough time filling their stadium when the team is good, nevertheless spiraling out of control. If Dallas can win, it puts all the pressure on New York to produce a victory at home the following day against a Washington team that’s slightly better than its record would indicate.

PUT UP OR SHUT UP: NEW YORK JETS
Some were ready to write the Jets off when they lost 17-13 to the Broncos back on that Thursday night in mid-November. But they’ve quietly rattled off three straight wins against inferior opponents in Buffalo, Washington and Kansas City, respectively. Their latest victory (a 37-10 shellacking of the Chiefs) has allowed them to take control of their own destiny in the AFC. If the playoffs were to start today, the Jets would own the sixth and final seed in the conference. But with Tennessee (7-6), Cincinnati (7-6), Oakland (7-6) and even San Diego (6-7) still very much alive, New York can ill-afford to suffer any losses. They’ll travel to Philadelphia this Sunday to take on an Eagles team that has been a mixed bag all season. You don’t know whether or not they’ll come out completely flat and disinterested or focused and inspired. That’s why if Rex Ryan wants people to start believing in “Gang Green” again, the Jets better come out this Sunday and beat a Philadelphia squad that for all intents and purposes is just riding out the rest of its schedule. Given how poorly the Eagles have defended the run this year, this is a great opportunity for Shonn Greene and the Jets to establish the run, play great defense and walk out of Philly with a victory.

Four spreads of note:

Jets –6 @ Broncos, 8:20PM ET, Thursday
The spread for this game has danced for three days now. It opened at Jets –5 and then dropped to 4.5. Now it’s all the way up to 6. I’d personally lay the points with New York up to 7 because I think Tim Tebow is going to have a hell of a time scoring on Rex Ryan’s defense. If he struggled three weeks ago against Detroit, then I shudder to think how he’ll fare against a pissed off New York team that New England just pounded at home. Although I don’t trust Mark Sanchez and the Jet offense as far as I can throw them, this is a perfect spot to lay the points with Ryan’s squad.

Eagles +4.5 @ Giants, 8:20PM ET
This line actually opened at Giants –3 but once word spread that Michael Vick played last week’s game with broken ribs and is now questionable for Sunday night, the spread jumped up. For betting purposes, it’s actually better if Vick does play because the line may drop back down to 3. And if that happens, jump all over the Giants, who would be a massive value. The Eagles look like they’re a team mailing it in and if they don’t feel as though they have anything to play for then they’re not going to get up for a divisional rival in November, in blustery New Jersey no less. The road team usually prospers in this matchup but now might be the perfect time to kick the Eagles while they’re down. (As long as the line doesn’t keep going up, that is. (At some point the Giants stop being a value, even against a fading Philadelphia team.)

Titans +6 @ Falcons, 4:15PM ET
This line is way too high. The Titans enter the week with an extra spring in their step following the news of Matt Schaub’s season-ending surgery. They have a perfect opportunity to catch the Texans in the AFC South if they play well and Houston folds with Matt Leinart under center. The Falcons, meanwhile, are coming off a loss in which their head coach Mike Smith blew it by going for it on fourth-and-1 from their own 29-yard-line in overtime. (Which set the Saints up with primo field position.) Atlanta is a conservative team by nature and with Chris Johnson heating up the Titans should be able to keep this game close throughout.

Bengals +7 @ Ravens, 1:00PM ET
If you can figure out how the Ravens perceive the Bengals then this line should be easy to figure out. Baltimore has been playing up (Pittsburgh, NY Jets, Houston) and down (Jacksonville, Seattle, Arizona) to its competition all year. So if the Ravens view the Bengals as a team that is standing in their way of potentially winning the AFC North, then I would lay the 7 points. But if they view Cincinnati as a wounded (top corner Leon Hall is out for the year and star receiver A.J. Green is banged up) poser that didn’t have what it takes to beat Pittsburgh last week, then I’d take the points with the Bengals. Or better yet? Just lay off this game completely. I personally think that 7 points is a lot in a divisional game but if the Ravens are ticked off from their loss last week to Seattle then they could roll.

2011 NFL Week 11 Point Spreads:

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Most writers would be upset with a .500 week but I’m overjoyed. The two wins I mustered in Week 9 were two more than I had in Week 8 so…small victories, people.

The Giants and Dolphins won outright, while the Colts and Chargers pooled their money together to give me a big, fat 2-2 Sunday. That runs my season record to 15-21, which would be good if we were talking about my hits-to-at bats or competitions-to-attempts radios. But we’re not. We’re talking about my hideous record against the spread this season. The same hideous record that would still be hideous even if I went 4-0 this Sunday.

Ah, well. Here are a couple of losers for you on this glorious Sunday:

Saints @ Falcons, 1:00PM ET
Even if my life were dependant on it, I still couldn’t choose a side in this game. I would die starring off into space as the words “Saints” and “Falcons” bounced around in my head. The Saints have enough firepower to blow the Falcons out of the Georgia Dome this weekend but Atlanta is playing good defense at the moment, while New Orleans is not. So again, I’m lost when it comes to the side. The total, however, seems like a no-brainer. The Saints are averaging over 30 points per game and the Falcons have seemingly fixed their issues on offense. Assuming Julio Jones (hamstring) is fine after being added to Atlanta’s injury report on Thursday, I envision a high-scoring game this Sunday. While these two teams played to a 17-14 chess match last year in Atlanta, the over has hit in five of the last seven meetings between these two teams. Light ‘em up again, boys.
THE PICK: SAINTS/FALCONS OVER 49.5

Steelers @ Bengals, 1:00PM ET
Had oddsmakers given the Bengals four points or even 3.5, I would have taken a hard look at Cincinnati or laid off the game completely. And had the Steelers actually been able to defend 92 yards and beaten the Ravens last Sunday night at home, I again would have leaned towards the Bengals. But with the spread only sitting at 3 and with the Steelers ticked off from their loss last week, I love Pittsburgh this week. The Bengals’ defense has played extremely well this season and I fully expect that trend to continue. But the last time Andy Dalton faced one of the top defenses in the league, the Bengals mustered just 8 points in a 13-8 loss to the 49ers in Week 3. James Harrison is going to be a monster to deal with on Sunday and I just don’t see Dalton making enough plays to win this game in the end. And if you like the Steelers to win, you like them by a field goal or more so I’m happy to lay the 3.
THE PICK: PITTSBURGH STEELERS –3

Giants @ 49ers, 4:15PM ET
Even though the Niners are 7-1 this is a classic letdown game for Tom Coughlin’s team. They’re coming off a huge win in New England and now have to fly cross-country to play a San Francisco team that will certainly be fired up to beat one of the NFC’s top teams. That said, I don’t like laying 3.5 points on the Niners with the way the Giants have played as underdogs this season. If New York was favored or playing some hapless team that has no business being in the game, I’d be all over said hapless team. Instead, I see major value in the total. Both of these teams have the ability to score but Frank Gore is hobbled and the Niners have played well defensively all season. As long as there aren’t a ton of big plays, I like the under.
THE PICK: GIANTS/NINERS UNDER 42.5

Patriots @ Jets, 8:20PM ET
I’m probably going to look like a sucker for thinking this way, but I just don’t see Bill Belichick and Tom Brady losing three-straight games. Especially when that third loss would come at the hands of Rex Ryan and the Jets, who are playing great defensively right now but aren’t trustworthy offensively. New England’s defense played well until the final drive against New York last week and you know Brady is going to be as focused as ever. It’s not often that the Pats are underdogs so you might as well take advantage.
THE PICK: NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS +1

Last Week: 2-2
Season: 15-21

Check out the most current NFL Football Betting odds.

Four spreads of note:

Patriots +1 @ Jets, 8:20PM ET
This has got to be the most interesting spread on the board this week. The Jets opened at –1 at some books while others had them listed as a 2.5-point favorite. I would be shocked if the line didn’t flip to Patriots –1 by kickoff because everyone must have the same thought: Bill Belichick and Tom Brady aren’t going to lose three straight games. That said, Rex Ryan’s defense is playing championship caliber football right now. The Bills could do absolutely nothing offensively last Sunday against the Jets, and at home, no less. Plus, this is a revenge spot for Ryan and Co. so again, it’ll be interesting to see where the line moves from here.

Steelers –3 @ Bengals, 1:00PM ET
I’m really surprised that the line for this game didn’t open at 3.5. I know the Bengals are at home and are 6-2, but the last time they played a top-notch defense they were held to 8 points at home by the 49ers. Judging by the public betting numbers that are listed at sites like The Spread.com, it appears everyone is on Pittsburgh and why not? They’re the more experienced team and they’re coming off a loss to Baltimore so you know Mike Tomlin and Co. are ticked off. Unless oddsmakers are assuming this will be a three-point game either way, why not put the line at 3.5 and try to generate more two-sided action? In other words, I like the Steelers because I don’t have to worry about the hook. There’s very little value in Cincinnati outside of the fact that they’re a home dog.

Saints –1 @ Falcons, 1:00PM ET
The Saints opened as 2.5-point favorites at most books and now the game is down to a pick’em at some places. New Orleans is still the better team on paper but Atlanta has won three straight, are at home, and the Saints are just 2-3 on the road this year. Also, the Falcons still have a bad taste in their mouths from when several New Orleans players took photos on Atlanta’s logo after the Saints won in the Georgia Dome last season. This game should tell us a lot about the direction of the NFC South and I’ll tell you what, the Falcons’ defense has played very well the past couple of weeks. Don’t assume that Drew Brees is going to light them up in thier own house. This should be a great game.

Giants +3.5 @ 49ers, 4:15PM ET
Unlike the Steelers-Bengals game where I thought the line should be 3.5, I’m wondering why this spread isn’t 3 on the nose. Is this is a trap game where oddsmakers want you to overvalue New York because of the hook? The Giants are coming off a huge win against the Patriots and some are waiting for the 49ers to fall, so why is there extra motivation to take New York (i.e. if you take the Giants, you also get the hook so why not ride Big Blue)? I don’t get it. Either way, I see more value in the total. I have a hunch this is going to be a low-scoring game. I could see Eli Manning struggling against a stingy San Francisco defense and New York’s D answering the challenge of slowing a hobbled Frank Gore. The total (42.5) is set right based on how these two teams have scored this season, but I like the under.

2011 NFL Week 10 Point Spreads:

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Titans @ Steelers, 1:00PM ET
Want to know how dire the Steelers’ situation is along their offensive line? They just signed a guy (Max Starks) whom they released in preseason. Ben Roethlisberger’s bruised foot was in a walking boot as he watched practice on Wednesday and the Titans have a couple of linemen in Karl Klug and Derrick Morgan that can get after the passer. Don’t be shocked if we see an upset in Pittsburgh this Sunday.

Eagles @ Bills, 1:00PM ET
Michael Vick says that the “Dream Team” moniker is now dead in Philadelphia and that the Eagles no longer want to be called that. Seeing as how they’re 1-3 and taking on a Buffalo team that has been unbeatable at home this year, I don’t think anyone will have a problem obliging Mikey’s request.

Saints @ Panthers, 1:00PM ET
Don’t be surprised if Cam Newton has another big day passing this week. The Panthers figure to be trailing in this one and the Saints have struggled defensively this year. Will Smith and Sedrick Ellis are about the only linemen who have helped generate a pass rush, while guys like Roman Harper have struggled in coverage. As expected, all three linebackers have had their issues as well. Jonathan Casillas has two sacks and four QB pressures, but he has struggled in coverage while Jonathan Vilma has been suspect against the run. There’s certainly holes in New Orleans’ defense that Newton can take advantage of.

Seahawks @ Giants, 1:00PM ET
Assuming the Giants win this week, who would have thought that their only loss this season would be against the Redskins in Week 1 and not at Philadelphia in Week 3? Give Tom Coughlin’s squad credit. They could have easily lost last Sunday in Arizona and looked like they would with about five minutes left to play. But they persevered and now have what should be an easy win this Sunday. Tarvaris Jackson played well against Atlanta’s soft zone last weekend but the Seahawks are a completely different team on the road than they are at home. New York should roll.

Bengals @ Jaguars, 1:00PM ET
Andy Dalton has certainly had his ups and downs through the first quarter of the season, but the Bengals have to be pleased with the way he’s battled. With the Bills up 17-3 last Sunday, Dalton and Cincinnati could have shut it down in the second half, especially considering how inept the offense looked versus the 49ers the week before. But they picked up a huge win and now go on the road to face a Jaguars team that has struggled with rookie Blaine Gabbert under center. It’s pretty remarkable to think that he Bengals could be 3-2 after this week when you consider how messy their offseason was.

Cardinals @ Vikings, 1:00PM ET
Is Leslie Frazier starting to warm up to the idea of starting Christian Ponder? Here was Frazier’s comments on the rookie this Wednesday: “He’s working hard in practice, doing the same thing in meetings. We feel like he’s progressing well and we’re optimistic, that, when his time comes, he’ll be ready to go.” A couple of more brutal showings by Donovan McNabb and Ponder’s time might be coming soon.

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Five spreads of note:

Packers –5.5 @ Falcons, 8:20PM ET Sunday
The Packers return to the Georgia Dome roughly eight months after Aaron Rodgers and Co. burned it down back in January (metaphorically, of course). This line opened at 4 but is already up to 5.5 as public bettors continue to hammer the Packers, who beat the Falcons 48-21 in Atlanta during the Divisional Round playoffs last season. It’ll be interesting to see how far this spread climbs before the sharps come in and start pushing it back down. There’s no reason to believe the Falcons can hang with the Packers with the way they’ve looked in the early going, but at some point they become a value as a home dog. Will the line reach 6.5 or even 7 points?

Bears +5.5 @ Lions, 8:30PM ET, Monday
This is one of the more intriguing lines on the Week 5 schedule because it should get plenty of two-way action for sports books. The public is swarming to get a taste of that Lions Kool-Aid, but this spread is rather high for a divisional game. The Bears didn’t play well in their only road test of the season (Week 2 at New Orleans), but they’re an attractive play at 5.5. In fact, the opening line was Detroit –6 so the spread is already moving in Chicago’s direction.

Jets +9.5 @ Patriots, 4:15PM ET
Even though the Jets have looked awful the last two weeks, the road team is 18-7-1 against the number in the last 26 meetings between these two teams and you know Rex Ryan’s squad will be hyped for this one. The Patriots steamrolled the Jets 45-3 in New England last season but Gang Green returned the favor with a 28-21 victory in New York one month later. This is always an intriguing matchup and it’ll be interesting to see if the public pushes the line up to the key number of 10 or if sports books will leave the spread at 9.5 to entice plenty of two-way action.

Saints –6.5 @ Panthers, 1:00PM ET
This line is intriguing because of three reasons: 1) Cam Newton, 2) it’s a divisional game and 3) the Saints tend to play things more conservatively on the road than they do at home. While they covered last week against the Jaguars, they certainly didn’t blow them out. Now they go on the road for the second straight week to play a Carolina team that has covered the spread the past three weeks. The public seems to be backing New Orleans but Newton and the Panthers could certainly keep things close, especially when you consider that the Saints are 1-5 ATS in their last six games against Carolina.

Chiefs +1.5 @ Colts, 1:00PM ET
What do you do with this game? The Colts are 0-4 but are coming off two-straight covers despite having Curtis Painter under center. Assuming Painter holds onto the starting job (he should with how abysmal Kerry Collins looked in the early going), the Colts might be the play at –1.5. That said, the Chiefs finally got their offense going last week in Minnesota and maybe their situation has finally stabilized. With the spread highly unlikely to climb to the key number of 3, it might be best to stay far, far away from this one.

All Week 5 Point Spreads:

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