Bill Belichick is a genius. In fact, he’s so much of a genius that he cost his team a win on Sunday night by making one of the dumbest decisions by a head coach in quite some time.
The Patriots absolutely dissected the Colts for 58 minutes tonight. Tom Brady threw for 375 yards and three touchdowns on 29-of-42 passing, while Randy Moss (nine catches, 179 yards, 2 TDs) and Wes Welker (nine catches, 94 yards) abused an injury-riddled, inexperienced secondary on their way to taking a 31-14 fourth quarter lead.
Then Peyton Manning worked his magic to cut Indy’s deficit to 34-28 with just over two minutes remaining. But all the Patriots had to do was pick up two first downs (something they had done with ease the entire night) on their ensuing possession and put the Colts away for good. Instead, Indy’s defense rose to the challenge and stopped the Pats on a 3rd and 2 from New England’s 28-yard line to force a punt.
Or what everyone thought would be a punt, that is.
Instead of punting and making Manning drive the length of the field, Belichick decided to call a time out (the second of the drive) and go for it on fourth down. What ensued was a 1-yard catch by Kevin Faulk, a controversial spot of the ball and a turnover on downs for New England. Four plays later, Manning found Reggie Wayne for a 1-yard touchdown pass to give the Colts a stunning 35-34 victory.
Now, I don’t fault Belichick for being who he is: An aggressive decision-maker and a coach that not only likes to beat his opponent, but rip their soul out of their bodies and do a tap dance number on it. That’s who he is and that’s what he does. He’s won multiple Super Bowls with that strategy and he’s not going to change his philosophy now.
But the problem with that strategy in this case is that it just wasn’t a smart football decision. Belichick has to punt the football and trust his defense in that situation by forcing Manning to drive the length of the field to win. There’s nothing wrong with being aggressive, but that was just a flat out stupid decision by a head coach that knows better.
Granted, if the Patriots picked up that first down and never gave the ball back to Manning, everyone would be lauding Belichick’s fearless style. I get that, and I don’t want to lose sight of that fact because the media can be two-faced in scenarios like these. And in Belichick’s defense, with the way his offense had been moving the ball all night, gaining a first down on 4th and 2 must have seemed like a lock and why give the ball back to Manning after he just carved up your defense the previous two drives?
But the Patriots didn’t pick up that first down and there was really no reason not to punt the football in that situation. It wasn’t like they were at midfield – they were at their own 28-yard line and if their gamble didn’t work, Belichick had to have known he was handing a win over to the Colts. Furthermore, for Belichick to burn two timeouts before making that decision and leaving himself without the option to stop the clock had his offense not picked up the first down was just as stupid.
I’ve never seen a team dominate like the Patriots did for 58 minutes, only to lose on a decision like that. New England will surely rebound and I wouldn’t doubt it if we saw these same two teams play in the AFC Championship Game in the same stadium. But nevertheless, this was an awful decision by Belichick and he cost his team tonight.
The Patriots’ 20-17 overtime loss to the Broncos in Denver on Sunday is a perfect example of how the stat sheet doesn’t tell the whole story.
Tom Brady threw for 215 yards with two touchdowns and no interceptions on 19-of-33 passing today. That’s a solid stat line and if someone were only looking at those numbers, they’d attribute New England’s loss to something other than its quarterback.
But all is not right with Brady. His offensive line gave him plenty of time today and yet he never got into a rhythm in the passing game, which isn’t the first time I’ve written that about Brady in 2009. He never seemed to get on the same page as his receivers and he overthrew an open Randy Moss (who finished with only one catch) at least twice.
Brady has always been a fiery player, but he seems to express his frustrations more openly this season. It’s almost like he’s trying too hard to be the player he was before his knee injury and isn’t allowing the game to come to him. He knows he’s missing open receivers and he’s not shaking the bad plays off as quickly as he once did. His confidence seems to be down and it has made the Pats incredibly vulnerable.
That said, New England’s loss in Denver today could hardly be pinned solely on Brady missing the mark in the passing game. Kyle Orton shredded the Patriots’ pass defense for 330 yards and two touchdowns on 35-of-48 passing. Say what you want about Orton, but he’s 26-12 as a starter despite having only two 300-plus passing games over his career. That’s a testament to how well he manages the game and limits mistakes.
It was good to see Eddie Royal (10 receptions, 90 yards) finally snap out of his early season funk and turn in a complete game. If he can build off this, he’ll give Orton another weapon in the passing game and help take attention off of Brandon Marshall, who once again came up huge with a fourth quarter touchdown.
If the Broncos could crash at any point and their 5-0 start would be nothing but a distant memory. But if their defense continues to play as well as it has, then they’ll cruise to an AFC West title, which seemed highly unlikely just five weeks ago.
For 58 minutes of Monday night’s game between the Bills and Patriots, it appeared that New England was headed for a 0-1 start to the 2009 season. The Pats were dominating the Bills in every category except where it mattered most: The scoreboard.
But with just over two minutes remaining in the game, New England cut Buffalo’s lead to 24-19 after Tom Brady threw a bullet to tight end Ben Watson for an 18-yard touchdown. On the ensuing kickoff, Buffalo cornerback Leodis McKelvin (who played well defensively all night) foolishly decided to return the ball out of his end zone instead of taking a knee. He wound up fumbling and the Patriots recovered. Three plays later Brady again found Watson, this time on a 16-yard touchdown to give New England a 25-24 lead. (They would eventually win by that score.)
New England racked up 441 total yards of offense, including 368 passing yards. But this wasn’t your typical Patriot win in which they took control from the start and stepped on their opponent’s throat. Several times throughout the game, Brady looked uncomfortable on his newly repaired knee and New England’s defense looked befuddled by Buffalo’s no-huddle offense. If it weren’t for McKelvin’s fumble, the Patriots probably wouldn’t have walked out of Foxboro tonight with a win.
This loss doesn’t fall solely on McKelvin’s shoulders though. Defensive coordinator Perry Fewell made several mistakes tonight, none bigger than switching to the prevent defense with under five minutes remaining. Instead of staying aggressive like he had been all night, Fewell went to a shell coverage and Brady picked the Bills apart.
And where was T.O. tonight? While Randy Moss was busy racking up 141 yards on 12 receptions, Owens totaled just 46 yards on two catches. He did make another grab, although he had to throw the defender down in order to make the catch and was called for pass interference. Granted, New England did a great job blanketing him all game, but he was non-existent. One would think that for as much as quarterback Trent Edwards scrambled out of the pocket that T.O. could have shaken loose from the defenders once or twice to make more catches.
It was only one preseason game, but Tom Brady put the rest of the AFC East on notice: He’s back.
In his first game action since tearing his MCL and ACL in Week 1 of the 2008 season, Brady completed 10-of-15 passes for 100 yards, two touchdowns and one interception in the Patriots’ 27-25 win over the Eagles at Lincoln Financial Field on Thursday night.
More importantly than his stat line, Brady exhibited command in the pocket and seemingly had no trouble with his restructured knee. After a pass interference call on Randy Moss set up a touchdown to Chris Baker on New England’s second offensive possession of the game, Brady engineered a 10-play, 75-yard drive right before half that culminated in a nine yard TD pass to Baker to give the Pats a 21-6 lead. On the drive, Brady scrambled for a key first down on a third-and-one, which offered further proof that his knee is holding up after months of rehab.
Again, it was only one preseason game and it’ll be interesting to see how Brady’s knee responds the morning after playing. But all indications are that he’s completely healthy and that New England’s high-powered offensive attack is ready to keep opposing defenses coordinators up at night again.
Last week we looked at the top 10 fantasy quarterbacks from 2008 with a look toward 2009. This week, it’s about those who catch passes. Wide receivers have become almost as valuable as running backs, so it’s important not to overlook that when you’re preparing for your fantasy draft. And you are preparing, right? Or will you cram on Labor Day weekend? If you’re like me, you’re reading this stuff now because these long months without football suck. So, about those receivers….and keep in mind this Top 10 is based on scoring from one of my own fantasy leagues, and stats may differ from league to league:
1. Larry Fitzgerald, Arizona Cardinals—There should be no question remaining as to who has the best hands in football. In fact, I’ll just say it — that Larry Fitzgerald is the best receiver in football, and one of the best since the days of (dare I say it) Jerry Rice, or Lynn Swann. Yeah, he’s that good, and he’s just getting started. In ’08, Fitzgerald had 96 catches for 1431 yards and 12 touchdowns….and that’s with Kurt Warner having two other legitimate targets in Anquan Boldin and Steve Breaston.
2. Calvin Johnson, Detroit Lions—This poor bastard put up huge numbers last year for an 0-16 team—78 receptions for 1331 yards and 12 scores. It’s difficult to draft anyone on the Lions, though.
3. Andre Johnson, Houston Texans—This guy is just a beast. I mean, a freaking beast. Johnson had SIX games of over 130 receiving yards, and wound up with 115 catches for 1575 yards and 8 TDs…all usually with two guys covering him. Like I said, a beast. Now what would he do with a real QB?
4. Anquan Boldin, Arizona Cardinals—Q wants the ball, and he may not get it in Arizona this season. But his numbers and skills have every other GM salivating. Last year, despite missing four games with injuries, Boldin caught 89 passes for 1038 yards and 11 scores. He even rushed 9 times for 67 yards.
5. Greg Jennings, Green Bay Packers—Jennings has been on the verge of fantasy superstardom for a few years now, and I think the next two seasons may be peak years for him — especially with Aaron Rodgers coming into his own and Donald Driver losing a step or two. His 2008 numbers? 80 catches for 1292 yards and 8 touchdowns. This year, I’m saying 100-1500-12.
6. Randy Moss, New England Patriots—The fact that Moss still had a 1000-yard season catching passes from the yet-unproven Matt Cassel says a lot about Moss. Dude is a sick receiver. He had just four 100-yard games, but was consistent over the season with 69 receptions for 1008 yards and 11 TDs. He gets his boy Brady back in 2009, so look for 2007-ish numbers again.
7. Terrell Owens, Dallas Cowboys—He had one game over 200 yards, one more over 100, and every other game below 100. Owens managed 1052 yards on 69 catches with 10 scores, but by his standards the season was a bust. In Buffalo, I can’t imagine his numbers will be much better.
8. Lance Moore, New Orleans Saints—Marques Colston was never quite right after coming back from an injury, but Drew Brees kept throwing the ball to this guy, to the tune of 79 catches for 928 yards and 10 touchdowns—with three 100-yard games.
9. Steve Smith, Carolina Panthers—He was suspended for the first two games in 2008, but still racked up 1421 yards on 78 catches with 6 scores…and a whopping eight 100-yard games. Steve Smith is just money, and he should be a Top 5 receiver in every fantasy league.
10. Antonio Bryant, Tampa Bay Bucs—Bryant had his best season as a pro last year after missing the entire 2007 campaign, catching 83 passes for 1248 yards and 7 TDs…and he gets bonus points for doing it with the Tampa Bay Bucs!
Remember when we were instructed to draft running backs with our first two, and in some cases, our first four, fantasy football picks? Yeah, that was so 1999. Heck, that was so 2004 or 2005 when LT and Shaun Alexander were dominating the gridiron. But a funny thing has happened. Running backs by committee are not only keeping legs fresh, they are wreaking havoc on fantasy rosters. Also, a recent trend toward pass-happy offenses is making quarterbacks and receivers more valuable. Last season, QBs were dominating — here is how the Top 10 QBs finished fantasy-wise in 2008 (your league may have scored differently than mine) and what you can expect from them in 2009:
1. Drew Brees, New Orleans Saints—Brees fell 15 yards short of Dan Marino’s single season passing yards record, finishing with 5069 yards, along with 34 touchdowns and 17 interceptions. Is he going to match that? There’s no reason to believe he won’t.
2. Philip Rivers, San Diego Chargers—I had LT last year and one of the reasons his stats suffered was because this guy kept throwing the damn ball. Rivers threw for 4009 yards with 34 TDs and just 11 picks. This year, will they go back to more of a run-first offense? Probably not — not with LT a year older.
3. Kurt Warner, Arizona Cardinals—Ah, the Fountain of Youth is a beautiful thing. Warner drank from it often, and of course when you have guys named Boldin and Fitzgerald to throw to, it can make you look good and feel ten years younger. Still, who expected 4582 yards and 30 touchdowns with 14 picks and a trip to the Super Bowl? Not me. This year, Warner may not have Boldin, who just keeps whining about his contract, but don’t think the QB’s numbers will suffer all that much.
4. Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers—Brett who? You certainly won’t hear anyone blaming the Packers’ 6-10 season on Rodgers. It was in fact their defense that failed them, because Rodgers passed for 4038 yards with 28 TDs and 13 interceptions. And just for kicks, Favre’s numbers with the Jets were 3472 yards, but 22 TDs and league leading 22 picks. Going into 2009, Rodgers’ stock has to be even higher.
5. Jay Cutler, Denver Broncos—On what planet does 4526 yards and 25 touchdown passes get you run out of town? In Denver, where new coach Josh McDaniel screwed up and tried to trade for Matt Cassel. Oops. Cutler is now in Chicago, so that means his fantasy stock automatically drops a few notches.
6. Peyton Manning, Indianapolis Colts—The Colts got off to a horrible start and in fact didn’t win the division for the first time in years. But Manning finished strong, with 4002 yards, 27 TDs and just 12 picks. Marvin Harrison is no longer catching his passes, but that doesn’t mean Manning doesn’t have weapons.
7. Donovan McNabb, Philadelphia Eagles—It was a roller coaster season in 2008, but the Eagles came within about a quarter of reaching the Super Bowl. Somehow McNabb held it together (what, they have ties in the NFL?) and wound up having a great season, passing for 3916 yards with 23 TD passes and 11 picks. He only had 147 rushing yards and 2 rushing scores, but that’s what Philly has Brian Westbrook for. McNabb is getting long in the tooth, but he’s smarter and as accurate as ever.
8. Tony Romo, Dallas Cowboys—Okay, so there may be trouble in paradise and there is no T.O. anymore, but Romo is still a very good fantasy QB. His 3448 yards and 26 TDs were a bit off his 2007 pace (4211, 36 TDs), but part of that is because he missed a few games with a thumb injury.
9. Matt Cassel, New England Patriots—With zero pro experience and almost zero college experience, who would have thought Matt Cassel could come in for Tom Brady and have the season he did? Okay, so he is no Brady, but Brady is in a class of his own anyway. Cassel’s 3490 yards with 21 TD passes and just 10 interceptions were good enough to land him the starting job in Kansas City. How that will affect his fantasy stats remains to be seen, but don’t expect too much of a drop-off on an improved Chiefs’ team.
10. Chad Pennington, Miami Dolphins—You know Chad is still gloating after being pushed out of New York by Brett Favre, and then leading his Dolphins to the division title. Pennington is always risky as a fantasy QB because of injuries and inconsistency, but 3653 yards and 19 TDs is not shabby, nor was his microscopic total of 7 picks. If he stays healthy, Chad should have another good season.
The other name you’ll have to consider in 2009 is Brady. He missed the final 15 ¾ of the season after getting knocked out of the opener against Kansas City, but early reports are that Brady is looking and feeling great and will be at full strength in 2009. Randy Moss is salivating, and so will fantasy owners, though they will do so skeptically.
Are you ready for some football? I know I am and feel great just talking about it!
First there was the reported score of 12 out of 50 on Harvin’s Wonderlic test in February, which measures quick thinking and basic problem solving. Then NFLDraftBible.com reported 10 days ago that Harvin and three other players tested positive for marijuana at February’s NFL Combine in Indianapolis, though no other outlet has confirmed the report.
Harvin scored 32 touchdowns in three seasons and was a major factor on two national championship teams. He can play running back or receiver, averaged 11 yards every time he touched the ball in 2008 (110 times), and, playing with a fractured bone in his foot, famously gained 170 yards with a touchdown in the 2009 national title game.
Still, Pro Football Weekly recently polled NFL executives about the riskiest picks in this coming draft and Harvin was selected as the unanimous winner because of “coachability, a posse of hangers-on, his lack of respect for authority and drug usage.”
The reports never will be publicly confirmed by the NFL, but fair or not, the rumors are out there. Combine them with Harvin’s frequent run-ins with authorities as a high school star in the Virginia Beach area, which resulted in him being removed from high school sports altogether, and suddenly Harvin has gone from a top-10 pick to maybe slipping to the second round.
It’s hard to blame teams these days for taking a pass on a prospect that supposedly has off field baggage. The Falcons spent millions of dollars and sunk the hopes of their franchise into Michael Vick, only to watch him wind up in prison for federal dog fighting charges. Teams don’t want to be burned down the road because a player can’t stay out of trouble off the field, or stay away from their troublemaking friends.
Then again, as the article points out, guys like Dan Marino, Randy Moss and Warren Sapp also sacred off some teams and they obviously turned out to be pretty good. And it’s unfair to assume Harvin is a bad egg based on a couple of these reports, most notably the one by the unreliable NFLDraftBible.com.
Sometimes when deciding who you’re going to pick at your fantasy football draft, it’s easy to be infatuated with yardage and not with touchdowns, but TDs are really where the points are at. With the 2008 season now over, here is a look at the all-time active NFL leaders are in touchdowns, either rushing or receiving. Some names will not surprise you, but a few others might, but either way, you fantasy geeks can file this article away for when you start your preseason research:
1. Terrell Owens, Dallas Cowboys (141)—T.O. causes trouble everywhere he goes, but on the field he has a knack for finding the end zone, usually after he’s blown past a defender. And the best part for fantasy GMs is that you don’t have to actually interact with the guy like Jerry Jones does.
1. LaDainian Tomlinson, San Diego Chargers (141)—The scary thing about LT is he’s only 29. The really scary thing, though, is that he’s gone from a league-record 28 rushing scores in 2006 to 15 in 2007 to 11 in 2008. He probably won’t be drafted first overall again in 2009, but LT is still a first rounder.
3. Randy Moss, New England Patriots (136)—Moss has had an up and down career, but the one number you can never ignore is 23—the NFL single-season receiving TD mark he set in 2007 when he and Tom Brady were lighting up scoreboards. And Brady should be back in ’09.
4. Marvin Harrison, Indianapolis Colts (128)—A knee injury ended Harrison’s 2007 season prematurey, and he was not as effective in 2008 usual, scoring only 5 times. Throw in some off the field issues, and while Marvin has put up huge career numbers catching passes from Peyton Manning, you have to believe the end of that career is in sight.
5. Shaun Alexander, free agent (112)—Has anyone seen a running back’s career decline so sharply? Dude broke the NFL record with 27 rushing TDs in 2005, but an injury limited Alexander to only 20 starts since then with two different teams. 112 might stay at 112.
6. Edgerrin James, Arizona Cardinals (91)—James reached double digits in touchdowns four times while playing in Indianapolis. And he’s reached double digits in Arizona too—16 scores, but over three seasons. He showed in the playoffs that he still has some juice left, but on a Cardinals’ team focused on the pass, don’t expect James to reach 100 before 2010.
6. Isaac Bruce, San Francisco 49ers (91)—Fifteen years in the league will give you a chance to put up close to 100 touchdowns, but it’s not like Isaac Bruce doesn’t have skills, even at the ripe old football age of 36.
8. Joey Galloway, Tampa Bay Bucs (83)—Galloway is another guy who has sipped from the fountain of youth, but he missed most of the 2008 season.
9. Tony Gonzalez, Kansas City Chiefs (76)—Gonzalez caught 96 passes for 1058 yards and 10 touchdowns in 2008, one of his best seasons yet, to earn first team All Pro at the age of 32. He may not be back in KC in 2009, but no matter where he lands, he’s always a good fantasy tight end.
10. Clinton Portis, Washington Redskins (76)—With 76 career rushing and receiving touchdowns, Portis is a solid fantasy player, but no LT. Then again, LT is no LT anymore either.
This is why Ty Law (who was sitting on his couch when the Jets called him to play cornerback for them just days before they faced the Patriots on Thursday night) shouldn’t be covering Randy Moss when the game is on the line:
That was simply a phenomenal catch, but I don’t think enough is being made about Matt Cassel’s throw. Not only does he avoid the sack, but he also point the ball where only Moss could catch it – while on the run no less. Great play.
And to be far, Law didn’t have bad coverage on Moss, but why allow him to get a free release off the line?
Forbes.com complied a list of the worst NFL choke jobs of all time.
Super Bowl XLII
New England finished the 2007 season with the league’s first-ever 16-0 regular-season record. Quarterback Tom Brady threw 50 touchdowns and receiver Randy Moss caught 23 of them–both league bests–to help the Patriots score a record 582 points. But despite their seasonal excellence, the Patriots lost Super Bowl XLII by three points to the underdog New York Giants. With most of the scoring in the fourth quarter, the Giants’ Plaxico Burress caught a 13-yard pass from Eli Manning for the final score of the 17-14 game.
The Comeback
In 1993, the Houston Oilers choked so badly the game got its own nickname. “The Comeback” saw the Buffalo Bills recover from a 35-3 deficit in the third quarter to beat the Oilers in overtime. True to its name, the 32-point comeback remains the biggest in NFL history. The Oilers management fired the defensive coordinator and defensive backs coach the next day.
Super Bowl XXV
In 1991, near the close of Super Bowl XXV, the Buffalo Bills trailed the New York Giants 20-19. A two-minute drive down the field by Bills quarterback Jim Kelly had set up kicker Scott Norwood for a 47-yard field goal attempt. Norwood kicked it wide right, lost the game and became the only kicker in history to have missed a last-second field goal when a Super Bowl was on the line.
Usually we as fans think about what a great win it was for the Giants in last year’s Super Bowl, or what an amazing comeback it was for the Bills in ’93. But you forget that you can go the other way with it too and note how bad the Pats choked after a 16-0 season or how the Oilers couldn’t hold onto a 35-3 lead. It’s kind of interesting to think about.
