We hear it all the time. NBA analysts call one point guard “pass-first” and another “shoot-first.” Or they say one guy is “turnover-prone” while another “takes care of the ball.” But really, what makes a player a “pass-first” point guard? How carefree must he be with the ball to be considered “turnover-prone”?

I first tackled this subject two years ago, and settled on the shot-to-assist ratio to determine whether a player is “pass-first” or “shoot-first.” The higher the number, the more of a “shoot-first” player he is. To determine whether or not a player is “turnover-prone,” I calculated each player’s assist-to-turnover ratio. The higher the number, the better the player is at taking care of the ball.

I narrowed the list of players to 33, one for each team plus a few extra for teams like Cleveland, Sacramento and Denver, who have a couple of players manning the position. I also added eight prospects (indicated in green) just to see where a few of the younger guys land. Here’s the graph — it’s small, but if you click it, you’ll get to a bigger version:

So the pass-first/shoot-first aspect goes left to right, and the turnover-prone players will be towards the bottom, while the guys that take really good care of the ball will be up top. Players indicated with a blue diamond are in the Top 10 in this group in Efficiency Per Minute. I set the axis for each category at the average of the 33 players in question, so 1.97 for FGA-to-assist and 2.70 assist-to-turnover.

Two years ago when I conducted this study, seven of the top 10 EPM performers were in the top left quadrant (pass-first, takes care of the ball). This year, only five of the top 11 (I included both Rondo and Calderon, since they tied for #11) are in that quadrant. This is due to the emergence of three shoot-first, (fairly) turnover-prone guards who are emerging as stars: Derrick Rose, Russell Westbrook and Stephen Curry.

A few takeaways:

Ty Lawson looks like a star. He is #13 in this group in EPM, so if he can continue to post big numbers in bigger minutes he’s poised to join the Top 10 sometime soon.

Kyle Lowry isn’t too far behind him. It’s not clear if Houston has decided that Lowry is their point guard of the future, but he is #16 in EPM and is well above average in assist-to-turnover ratio.

Brandon Jennings can still become a Top 10 point guard. Two years ago, I would have said that Jennings would have to drastically change his game to join the elite group of point guards, but with the way Rose, Westbrook and Curry have emerged, he can continue to be himself. One thing I’ve noticed with his game is that he has a tough time finishing around the hoop when he gets bumped, which is something that Westbrook and Rose excel at. Jennings needs to master the floater — that way, he can use his quickness to get into the lane pretty much any time he wants, and then get his shot off without taking a big hit.

Roddy Beaubois is an interesting prospect, but it’s doubtful he’s going to be a quality starter in this league… unless he changes his game to become more of a distributor. He doesn’t need to turn into Jason Kidd, but right now he’s an outlier so he needs to take better care of the ball and create a few more opportunities for teammates. You may notice that Tyreke Evans is very close to Beaubois, but he really needs to play shooting guard.

If John Wall can take care of the ball, he’ll be right there with Deron Williams. For a rookie, Wall’s numbers look great. Sure, he’s a little turnover prone, but no worse that Westbrook, Billups, Collison or Curry. He’s a playmaker, so once he cuts back on the turnovers, his assist-to-turnover ratio really has a chance to skyrocket. I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s up in the area of Maynor and Lowry with a blue diamond next to his name in a couple of seasons.

It looks like the Cavs are interested in Ramon Sessions and according to reports, he is available for trade, especially since T-Wolves GM David Kahn signed another Bucks’ backup point guard to a long-term contract. With Sessions, Jonny Flynn and Luke Ridnour on the roster, and Ricky Rubio theoretically on his way next season, Sessions appears to be the odd man out.

And the guy can play. I have a long documented love affair with Sessions’ upside and even though he got limited run last season in a backup role (in an offense that doesn’t suit his skills), he had a 16.00+ PER in each of his first two seasons and is just 24 years-old.

In his second year for the Bucks he averaged 12-3-6 in 28 minutes a game. In 38 games as a starter that year, he posted 15-4-8 and shot 45% from the field.

There are several teams looking for a point guard, and I don’t know why they aren’t looking at Sessions. If I were running the Pacers, Bobcats, Cavs, Knicks, Raptors, Pistons, Hawks or the Grizzlies, I’d tell my assistant to get Kahn on the phone. Pronto.

Miller might actually find it easier to operate in Portland’s offense with Oden off the floor and less of an emphasis on throwing the ball inside. Harsh as that sounds, given Oden’s unquestioned likability and hideous luck, Miller and Roy appeared to be the main sufferers from the lack of offensive flow that has plagued Portland this season as Oden’s role expanded. If the Blazers open things up a bit more with Oden sidelined, as Roy envisions, that could really help Miller.

Yet the reality remains that Miller and Roy are an iffy tag team because both need to see so much of the ball to be effective, which explains why Miller has started only nine games. There’s this, too: While NBA front-office sources say there is considerable outside interest in young (and mostly forgotten) Portland guard Jerryd Bayless, Miller’s more substantial salary — $6.7 million to Bayless’ $2.1 million — would probably bring a bigger talent payoff in a trade.

“They need a Mo Williams-type to play with Brandon Roy,” said one rival team executive in the West. “They need a shooter to play off him.”

Stein suggests that both Miller and Sessions were signed so that the Blazers and T-Wolves would have tradeable assets that they can “flip” at some point during the season. Sessions supposedly had an opportunity to play for the Knicks on a one-year deal and probably should have done just that. Chris Duhon is struggling, so it’s likely that Sessions would be the starter by now, and with his ability, he could post some nice numbers in Mike D’Antoni’s system. The Knicks aren’t going to trade for Sessions now because his contract would eat into their projected cap space next summer.

Even with the whole Ricky Rubio/Jonny Flynn mess strategy, this is a nice move by the Timberwolves. Sessions can play a little off guard, but he and Flynn will have some battles in practice and should ultimately make each other better. He’s just 23 and has proven that he can be productive in limited minutes, and now that he’s locked into a reasonable contract, he’s going to be a valuable asset for the T-Wolves.

…and it’s not with the Knicks or Clippers. It’s with the Timberwolves.

The waiting and wondering is finally over for restricted free agent Ramon Sessions, who agreed Friday to sign a four-year, $16 million offer sheet with the Minnesota Timberwolves.

A source told ESPN.com that the paperwork on the deal was being processed Friday morning. After Sessions signs, the Milwaukee Bucks will have seven days to match the offer, which they are not expected to do.

The Knicks were only willing to guarantee one year because they did not want to eat into their cap space next summer.

As regular readers know, I’m a big fan of Sessions’ game and I think $4 million per season is a steal. I hope my beloved Bucks match the offer, but all signs seem to point to the franchise letting him go.

Here’s what I wrote about Sessions back in July…

Three million, eh? That’s what a 23-year-old with the 13th-highest PER amongst point guards garners these days? Sessions has the 5th-highest PER amongst point guards under the age of 26. This means that if he continues on his current career trajectory, he has a great shot at being a perennial top 10 point guard in the NBA.

But the past is the past, and the Bucks are faced with losing an up-and-coming, highly-efficient, very talented point guard because they aren’t (or may not be) willing to pay him more than $3 million per season. If the Bucks are smart, they’ll match any offer up to the mid-level and let Sessions and Jennings battle every day in practice. Sessions has already proven he can be productive in 25 minutes per game, so it’s not like he’s going to suddenly lose his value because he has to share time with Jennings. And neither guy is a great shooter, so the Bucks won’t have to drastically change their offense when one guy subs into the game.

One thing’s for sure — Sessions is an asset, and he shouldn’t be let go because the Bucks want a $2 million cushion under the luxury tax. Heck, there’s no guarantee that Jennings is going to pan out or that he’ll get along with Scott Skiles. Sessions might just turn out to be the Bucks’ point guard of the future.

Small market teams have to build through the draft and via trade, not through free agency. This means that they have to hold onto assets when they have them, not let them walk away at a discount.

We’ll see what GM John Hammond decides, but right now it’s not looking good.

BREW HOOP has a nice roundup of the Ramon Sessions situation. The Knicks haven’t yet signed him to a deal, but the two sides are still negotiating.

Rumor has it that the Bucks would match up to $3 million per season. The Knicks’ payroll is currently projected to be around $27.4 million heading into next summer, and if the salary cap drops to $50 million, that leaves $22.6 million to sign LeBron (or some other max player) and David Lee and/or Sessions. (This assumes that GM Donnie Walsh can’t move Eddy Curry or Jared Jeffries.) Whatever deal the Knicks offer Sessions will cut into that cap space in 2010 since the minimum contract length is two years for a restricted free agent. It appears that the Knicks are looking at the worst case scenario (not being able to move Curry or Jeffries) and have to choose between Sessions and Lee.

As for the Bucks, I’ve made my feelings clear — they need to hold onto Sessions.

Yesterday, I wrote extensively about this move, and his agent, Bill Duffy, announced the trade earlier today.

Here is what TrueHoop has to say…

The Bucks may win the award for saying goodbye to the most talent this summer, but they are certainly stocking the cupboard with a big selection of active and long young forwards. Presumably at least some of them will buy in to Scott Skiles’ intense approach to the game. With Brandon Jennings at point guard, the Bucks are shaping up to be one of those high-energy teams that will be fun to watch whether they win or lose.

Frank Madden of BrewHoop had this to say…

The most important takeaway here is that the Bucks blew a huge chunk of their remaining dollars with this deal, seemingly begging the Knicks to make a move for Sessions. While Warrick’s not going to fundamentally alter the course of the Bucks’ future, he’s a very useful guy who could start at PF…plus I like anyone who Kelly Dwyer approves of. Warrick’s made a living putting up good numbers as a part-time starter for forgettable Grizzlies teams, so he’ll probably perform similarly for a very young Bucks team. He’s always been labeled a tweener and was kicked to the curb in Memphis, but his raw numbers last year were pretty encouraging: a 19.4/16.5 PER differential at PF as the Grizz were better offensively and defensively with him on the court.

Ramon Sessions was expected by everyone to finally get his contract offer from the Knicks today…so of course it didn’t happen. Marc Stein reports the Knicks will make an offer soon, and the Warrick deal should finally give them the assurances they need that the Bucks won’t match a long-term offer sheet. Given the desirability of starting for Mike D’Antoni, Donnie Walsh knew Sessions would be willing to wait for a Knicks offer and essentially outwaited the Bucks, who had been keeping enough cash available under the tax to maintain a credible enough threat to re-sign their young point guard. But apparently the opportunity to sign Warrick was appealing enough to give up the charade. Even assuming Warrick comes in at $3 million even, the Bucks would have $67.583 million committed to 14 players, leaving just $2.337 million to re-sign Sessions while staying under the tax. Sure, the Bucks could match an offer and then try to wheel and deal to get under the tax by the end of the season, but the Bucks don’t seem all that interested in Sessions now that Brandon Jennings is in town.

The Bucks may not seem all that interested in Sessions, but they should be. If he winds up as the Knicks’ starting point guard, his numbers are going to blow up.

Like I said yesterday, I don’t mind the Warrick signing, but if it means the Bucks can’t keep Sessions, it doesn’t make a whole lot of sense. Why give up a starting caliber point guard for a backup power forward?