The Chicago Bulls’ Derrick Rose shoots a free throw while playing the San Antonio Spurs during the fourth quarter of their NBA game in Chicago February 17, 2011. REUTERS/John Gress (UNITED STATES – Tags: SPORT BASKETBALL)
We hear it all the time. NBA analysts call one point guard “pass-first” and another “shoot-first.” Or they say one guy is “turnover-prone” while another “takes care of the ball.” But really, what makes a player a “pass-first” point guard? How carefree must he be with the ball to be considered “turnover-prone”?
I first tackled this subject two years ago, and settled on the shot-to-assist ratio to determine whether a player is “pass-first” or “shoot-first.” The higher the number, the more of a “shoot-first” player he is. To determine whether or not a player is “turnover-prone,” I calculated each player’s assist-to-turnover ratio. The higher the number, the better the player is at taking care of the ball.
I narrowed the list of players to 33, one for each team plus a few extra for teams like Cleveland, Sacramento and Denver, who have a couple of players manning the position. I also added eight prospects (indicated in green) just to see where a few of the younger guys land. Here’s the graph — it’s small, but if you click it, you’ll get to a bigger version:
So the pass-first/shoot-first aspect goes left to right, and the turnover-prone players will be towards the bottom, while the guys that take really good care of the ball will be up top. Players indicated with a blue diamond are in the Top 10 in this group in Efficiency Per Minute. I set the axis for each category at the average of the 33 players in question, so 1.97 for FGA-to-assist and 2.70 assist-to-turnover.
Two years ago when I conducted this study, seven of the top 10 EPM performers were in the top left quadrant (pass-first, takes care of the ball). This year, only five of the top 11 (I included both Rondo and Calderon, since they tied for #11) are in that quadrant. This is due to the emergence of three shoot-first, (fairly) turnover-prone guards who are emerging as stars: Derrick Rose, Russell Westbrook and Stephen Curry.
It looks like the Cavs are interested in Ramon Sessions and according to reports, he is available for trade, especially since T-Wolves GM David Kahn signed another Bucks’ backup point guard to a long-term contract. With Sessions, Jonny Flynn and Luke Ridnour on the roster, and Ricky Rubio theoretically on his way next season, Sessions appears to be the odd man out.
And the guy can play. I have a long documented love affair with Sessions’ upside and even though he got limited run last season in a backup role (in an offense that doesn’t suit his skills), he had a 16.00+ PER in each of his first two seasons and is just 24 years-old.
In his second year for the Bucks he averaged 12-3-6 in 28 minutes a game. In 38 games as a starter that year, he posted 15-4-8 and shot 45% from the field.
There are several teams looking for a point guard, and I don’t know why they aren’t looking at Sessions. If I were running the Pacers, Bobcats, Cavs, Knicks, Raptors, Pistons, Hawks or the Grizzlies, I’d tell my assistant to get Kahn on the phone. Pronto.
Marc Stein lists five “big” names who could be on the move as the NBA trade season begins in earnest. Those names are: Andre Miller, Nate Robinson, Brandon Bass, Marcin Gortat and Ramon Sessions. Here’s part of Stein’s writeup on Miller:
Miller might actually find it easier to operate in Portland’s offense with Oden off the floor and less of an emphasis on throwing the ball inside. Harsh as that sounds, given Oden’s unquestioned likability and hideous luck, Miller and Roy appeared to be the main sufferers from the lack of offensive flow that has plagued Portland this season as Oden’s role expanded. If the Blazers open things up a bit more with Oden sidelined, as Roy envisions, that could really help Miller.
Yet the reality remains that Miller and Roy are an iffy tag team because both need to see so much of the ball to be effective, which explains why Miller has started only nine games. There’s this, too: While NBA front-office sources say there is considerable outside interest in young (and mostly forgotten) Portland guard Jerryd Bayless, Miller’s more substantial salary — $6.7 million to Bayless’ $2.1 million — would probably bring a bigger talent payoff in a trade.
“They need a Mo Williams-type to play with Brandon Roy,” said one rival team executive in the West. “They need a shooter to play off him.”
Stein suggests that both Miller and Sessions were signed so that the Blazers and T-Wolves would have tradeable assets that they can “flip” at some point during the season. Sessions supposedly had an opportunity to play for the Knicks on a one-year deal and probably should have done just that. Chris Duhon is struggling, so it’s likely that Sessions would be the starter by now, and with his ability, he could post some nice numbers in Mike D’Antoni’s system. The Knicks aren’t going to trade for Sessions now because his contract would eat into their projected cap space next summer.
Even with the whole Ricky Rubio/Jonny Flynn mess strategy, this is a nice move by the Timberwolves. Sessions can play a little off guard, but he and Flynn will have some battles in practice and should ultimately make each other better. He’s just 23 and has proven that he can be productive in limited minutes, and now that he’s locked into a reasonable contract, he’s going to be a valuable asset for the T-Wolves.
The waiting and wondering is finally over for restricted free agent Ramon Sessions, who agreed Friday to sign a four-year, $16 million offer sheet with the Minnesota Timberwolves.
A source told ESPN.com that the paperwork on the deal was being processed Friday morning. After Sessions signs, the Milwaukee Bucks will have seven days to match the offer, which they are not expected to do.
The Knicks were only willing to guarantee one year because they did not want to eat into their cap space next summer.
As regular readers know, I’m a big fan of Sessions’ game and I think $4 million per season is a steal. I hope my beloved Bucks match the offer, but all signs seem to point to the franchise letting him go.
Three million, eh? That’s what a 23-year-old with the 13th-highest PER amongst point guards garners these days? Sessions has the 5th-highest PER amongst point guards under the age of 26. This means that if he continues on his current career trajectory, he has a great shot at being a perennial top 10 point guard in the NBA.
But the past is the past, and the Bucks are faced with losing an up-and-coming, highly-efficient, very talented point guard because they aren’t (or may not be) willing to pay him more than $3 million per season. If the Bucks are smart, they’ll match any offer up to the mid-level and let Sessions and Jennings battle every day in practice. Sessions has already proven he can be productive in 25 minutes per game, so it’s not like he’s going to suddenly lose his value because he has to share time with Jennings. And neither guy is a great shooter, so the Bucks won’t have to drastically change their offense when one guy subs into the game.
One thing’s for sure — Sessions is an asset, and he shouldn’t be let go because the Bucks want a $2 million cushion under the luxury tax. Heck, there’s no guarantee that Jennings is going to pan out or that he’ll get along with Scott Skiles. Sessions might just turn out to be the Bucks’ point guard of the future.
Small market teams have to build through the draft and via trade, not through free agency. This means that they have to hold onto assets when they have them, not let them walk away at a discount.
We’ll see what GM John Hammond decides, but right now it’s not looking good.
BREW HOOP has a nice roundup of the Ramon Sessions situation. The Knicks haven’t yet signed him to a deal, but the two sides are still negotiating.
Rumor has it that the Bucks would match up to $3 million per season. The Knicks’ payroll is currently projected to be around $27.4 million heading into next summer, and if the salary cap drops to $50 million, that leaves $22.6 million to sign LeBron (or some other max player) and David Lee and/or Sessions. (This assumes that GM Donnie Walsh can’t move Eddy Curry or Jared Jeffries.) Whatever deal the Knicks offer Sessions will cut into that cap space in 2010 since the minimum contract length is two years for a restricted free agent. It appears that the Knicks are looking at the worst case scenario (not being able to move Curry or Jeffries) and have to choose between Sessions and Lee.
The Bucks may win the award for saying goodbye to the most talent this summer, but they are certainly stocking the cupboard with a big selection of active and long young forwards. Presumably at least some of them will buy in to Scott Skiles’ intense approach to the game. With Brandon Jennings at point guard, the Bucks are shaping up to be one of those high-energy teams that will be fun to watch whether they win or lose.
There were strong indications Thursday night that the New York Knicks were assembling the final details of an offer sheet they believe will ultimately land Milwaukee Bucks restricted free agent Ramon Sessions.
Terms of the proposed deal were not immediately available, but NBA front-office sources told ESPN.com that the Bucks were indeed bracing for the offer sheet and also more likely to pool the free-agent cash they’re prepared to spend this summer to try to beat the Cleveland Cavaliers to the signature of athletic power forward Hakim Warrick rather than matching what’s coming to Sessions from the Knicks.
Frank Madden at BrewHoop had this to say about the potential “swap”…
Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel columnist Michael Hunt says that Bucks’ best move may be to let Ramon Sessions walk if he signs an offer sheet with another team.
He starts off by discussing Charlie Villanueva’s new contract.
Because having Villanueva back on a bloated payroll would’ve exposed the Bucks to the NBA’s luxury tax – an insane notion for a team that wasn’t going to make the playoffs with him – they simply did not want him for financial reasons. And that’s beyond the fact that, at 6 feet 11 inches, he stood on the perimeter shooting threes and didn’t play defense.
Who knew he would get $7 million from the Pistons?
I don’t want to toot my own horn, but I’m going to go ahead and toot it anyway. In our free agency preview, I estimated that Villanueva’s value was somewhere in the range of $5.5-$6.5 million per year. And that was before the Bucks elected not to extend the qualifying offer that would have made him a restricted free agent.
This notion that the Bucks wouldn’t be a playoff team with Villanueva on the roster is poppycock. They lost Andrew Bogut for 46 games and Michael Redd for 49 games and still won 34 games last season. Had they won six more games, they would have made the postseason. Does that in itself justify paying the luxury tax? No, but the Bucks clearly have (or had, before this summer) the talent to make the playoffs.
Hunt is right in that Villanueva didn’t play much defense, but that doesn’t change the fact that small market teams can’t afford to let assets get away without any compensation. Did the Bucks explore a sign-and-trade? Maybe the Pistons would have been willing to give up a first round pick and an expiring salary (or Amir Johnson, if he were still on the roster) for Villanueva. Sure, extending that qualifying offer would have put the Bucks over the luxury tax threshold, but is it worth it to give away your good players just to avoid the tax? For the Bucks, maybe it is. But that’s not how you build a winner.
