The Chicago Bulls’ Derrick Rose shoots a free throw while playing the San Antonio Spurs during the fourth quarter of their NBA game in Chicago February 17, 2011. REUTERS/John Gress (UNITED STATES – Tags: SPORT BASKETBALL)
We hear it all the time. NBA analysts call one point guard “pass-first” and another “shoot-first.” Or they say one guy is “turnover-prone” while another “takes care of the ball.” But really, what makes a player a “pass-first” point guard? How carefree must he be with the ball to be considered “turnover-prone”?
I first tackled this subject two years ago, and settled on the shot-to-assist ratio to determine whether a player is “pass-first” or “shoot-first.” The higher the number, the more of a “shoot-first” player he is. To determine whether or not a player is “turnover-prone,” I calculated each player’s assist-to-turnover ratio. The higher the number, the better the player is at taking care of the ball.
I narrowed the list of players to 33, one for each team plus a few extra for teams like Cleveland, Sacramento and Denver, who have a couple of players manning the position. I also added eight prospects (indicated in green) just to see where a few of the younger guys land. Here’s the graph — it’s small, but if you click it, you’ll get to a bigger version:
So the pass-first/shoot-first aspect goes left to right, and the turnover-prone players will be towards the bottom, while the guys that take really good care of the ball will be up top. Players indicated with a blue diamond are in the Top 10 in this group in Efficiency Per Minute. I set the axis for each category at the average of the 33 players in question, so 1.97 for FGA-to-assist and 2.70 assist-to-turnover.
Two years ago when I conducted this study, seven of the top 10 EPM performers were in the top left quadrant (pass-first, takes care of the ball). This year, only five of the top 11 (I included both Rondo and Calderon, since they tied for #11) are in that quadrant. This is due to the emergence of three shoot-first, (fairly) turnover-prone guards who are emerging as stars: Derrick Rose, Russell Westbrook and Stephen Curry.
Even with the whole Ricky Rubio/Jonny Flynn mess strategy, this is a nice move by the Timberwolves. Sessions can play a little off guard, but he and Flynn will have some battles in practice and should ultimately make each other better. He’s just 23 and has proven that he can be productive in limited minutes, and now that he’s locked into a reasonable contract, he’s going to be a valuable asset for the T-Wolves.
The waiting and wondering is finally over for restricted free agent Ramon Sessions, who agreed Friday to sign a four-year, $16 million offer sheet with the Minnesota Timberwolves.
A source told ESPN.com that the paperwork on the deal was being processed Friday morning. After Sessions signs, the Milwaukee Bucks will have seven days to match the offer, which they are not expected to do.
The Knicks were only willing to guarantee one year because they did not want to eat into their cap space next summer.
As regular readers know, I’m a big fan of Sessions’ game and I think $4 million per season is a steal. I hope my beloved Bucks match the offer, but all signs seem to point to the franchise letting him go.
Three million, eh? That’s what a 23-year-old with the 13th-highest PER amongst point guards garners these days? Sessions has the 5th-highest PER amongst point guards under the age of 26. This means that if he continues on his current career trajectory, he has a great shot at being a perennial top 10 point guard in the NBA.
But the past is the past, and the Bucks are faced with losing an up-and-coming, highly-efficient, very talented point guard because they aren’t (or may not be) willing to pay him more than $3 million per season. If the Bucks are smart, they’ll match any offer up to the mid-level and let Sessions and Jennings battle every day in practice. Sessions has already proven he can be productive in 25 minutes per game, so it’s not like he’s going to suddenly lose his value because he has to share time with Jennings. And neither guy is a great shooter, so the Bucks won’t have to drastically change their offense when one guy subs into the game.
One thing’s for sure — Sessions is an asset, and he shouldn’t be let go because the Bucks want a $2 million cushion under the luxury tax. Heck, there’s no guarantee that Jennings is going to pan out or that he’ll get along with Scott Skiles. Sessions might just turn out to be the Bucks’ point guard of the future.
Small market teams have to build through the draft and via trade, not through free agency. This means that they have to hold onto assets when they have them, not let them walk away at a discount.
We’ll see what GM John Hammond decides, but right now it’s not looking good.
It seems like an obvious match on paper. The Knicks have a well-documented need for a point guard and Ricky Rubio is threatening to play another year or two in Spain so that he can avoid playing in Minnesota, at least for the time being. Then, of course, there is the T-Wolves’ decision to draft point guards with back-to-back picks in this year’s draft. Throw in the Knicks’ reluctance to sign a point guard this summer and it all adds up — they’re pursuing Rubio.
One insider tells RealGM’s Alex Kennedy that Kahn could be working out a scenario where Rubio would be dealt to the New York Knicks.
“Kahn and [Knicks' President] Donnie Walsh are close and New York is looking for a cheap point guard who could help attract free agents next summer. Rubio fits that mold. I think that’s what this latest trip to Spain is about, working something out with New York.”
First, let me state that this is all speculation. An “insider” told Real GM that Kahn “could be” working out a deal that would send Rubio to New York. This isn’t exactly substantial stuff.
Regardless, it’s not clear what New York would have to give up in this scenario, as they don’t have too many assets to offer. David Lee is a possibility, but the T-Wolves are pretty set up front with Al Jefferson and Kevin Love. Nate Robinson is a good scorer, but wouldn’t be equal value for the potential that Rubio brings to the table. Wilson Chandler is a nice (though not particularly efficient) small forward, which is the same position that LeBron James plays.
Lee would seem to be the best that the Knicks have to offer, but would the T-Wolves want to pay him $8-$10 million per season when he’d likely come off the bench? Thinking about it, Chandler plus an unprotected first round pick might do the trick.
BREW HOOP has a nice roundup of the Ramon Sessions situation. The Knicks haven’t yet signed him to a deal, but the two sides are still negotiating.
Rumor has it that the Bucks would match up to $3 million per season. The Knicks’ payroll is currently projected to be around $27.4 million heading into next summer, and if the salary cap drops to $50 million, that leaves $22.6 million to sign LeBron (or some other max player) and David Lee and/or Sessions. (This assumes that GM Donnie Walsh can’t move Eddy Curry or Jared Jeffries.) Whatever deal the Knicks offer Sessions will cut into that cap space in 2010 since the minimum contract length is two years for a restricted free agent. It appears that the Knicks are looking at the worst case scenario (not being able to move Curry or Jeffries) and have to choose between Sessions and Lee.
The Bucks may win the award for saying goodbye to the most talent this summer, but they are certainly stocking the cupboard with a big selection of active and long young forwards. Presumably at least some of them will buy in to Scott Skiles’ intense approach to the game. With Brandon Jennings at point guard, the Bucks are shaping up to be one of those high-energy teams that will be fun to watch whether they win or lose.
There were strong indications Thursday night that the New York Knicks were assembling the final details of an offer sheet they believe will ultimately land Milwaukee Bucks restricted free agent Ramon Sessions.
Terms of the proposed deal were not immediately available, but NBA front-office sources told ESPN.com that the Bucks were indeed bracing for the offer sheet and also more likely to pool the free-agent cash they’re prepared to spend this summer to try to beat the Cleveland Cavaliers to the signature of athletic power forward Hakim Warrick rather than matching what’s coming to Sessions from the Knicks.
Frank Madden at BrewHoop had this to say about the potential “swap”…
Restricted free agency is a completely different animal. Since a team still holds a player’s rights for another season, there is no huge rush to get a deal done, especially if the team and the player’s camp are far apart in terms of the player’s value. The deeper into the summer negotiations go, the more likely it is that the player will play out the final year of his rookie deal for the qualifying offer and enter unrestricted free agency in 2010. Here’s an update on the top remaining names on the restricted free agency market.
David Lee
Lee and the Knicks are still at an impasse. The Knicks look to be willing to match any offer up to about $8 million per season, while Lee’s camp is looking for a deal averaging in the $10-$12 million range. There was some talk that the potential one-year deal for Nate Robinson might prompt the Knicks to get moving on a long-term contract for Lee, but even that Robinson deal is just a rumor. Like many restricted free agent negotiations, this looks like a case of the two sides being far apart on the player’s value and given the Knicks’ apparent unwillingness to work out a sign-and-trade, all signs point to Lee playing out the final year of his deal and entering unrestricted free agency next year. Lee is frustrated in no small part because his qualifying offer ($2.3 million) is well below his market value.
Ramon Sessions
The Knicks, Clippers and even the Sixers may be interested, but no one has signed Sessions to an offer sheet yet. The Bucks are likely to match most offers up to the mid-level, but there is still enough uncertainty about Sessions that teams seem unwilling to sign him to a full mid-level deal (five years, $34 million). Based on what I’ve read from Sessions’ agent, Jimmy “Chubby” Wells, he’s not sure what the Bucks are doing. It seems like a four-year deal in the $12-$15 million range would do the trick. That way, Sessions would get some long-term security and would be able to negotiate another contract when he’s 27. On the flip side, the Bucks would get a backup plan if Brandon Jennings doesn’t pan out. But what do I know? I’m just a blogger.
Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel columnist Michael Hunt says that Bucks’ best move may be to let Ramon Sessions walk if he signs an offer sheet with another team.
He starts off by discussing Charlie Villanueva’s new contract.
Because having Villanueva back on a bloated payroll would’ve exposed the Bucks to the NBA’s luxury tax – an insane notion for a team that wasn’t going to make the playoffs with him – they simply did not want him for financial reasons. And that’s beyond the fact that, at 6 feet 11 inches, he stood on the perimeter shooting threes and didn’t play defense.
Who knew he would get $7 million from the Pistons?
I don’t want to toot my own horn, but I’m going to go ahead and toot it anyway. In our free agency preview, I estimated that Villanueva’s value was somewhere in the range of $5.5-$6.5 million per year. And that was before the Bucks elected not to extend the qualifying offer that would have made him a restricted free agent.
This notion that the Bucks wouldn’t be a playoff team with Villanueva on the roster is poppycock. They lost Andrew Bogut for 46 games and Michael Redd for 49 games and still won 34 games last season. Had they won six more games, they would have made the postseason. Does that in itself justify paying the luxury tax? No, but the Bucks clearly have (or had, before this summer) the talent to make the playoffs.
Hunt is right in that Villanueva didn’t play much defense, but that doesn’t change the fact that small market teams can’t afford to let assets get away without any compensation. Did the Bucks explore a sign-and-trade? Maybe the Pistons would have been willing to give up a first round pick and an expiring salary (or Amir Johnson, if he were still on the roster) for Villanueva. Sure, extending that qualifying offer would have put the Bucks over the luxury tax threshold, but is it worth it to give away your good players just to avoid the tax? For the Bucks, maybe it is. But that’s not how you build a winner.
