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What kind of point guard WAS he?

My post from a few days ago was relatively well-received at reddit, and one of the readers there said that he’d like to see the same graph for some of the all-time great point guards.

So with a little help from Basketball-Reference.com, I compiled a list of (all?) the Hall of Fame point guards: Oscar Robertson, Lenny Wilkens, Bob Cousy, Jerry West, John Stockton, Isiah Thomas, Magic Johnson, Dennis Johnson, Tiny Archibald, Calvin Murphy, Pete Maravich and Walt Frazier. Unfortunately, the NBA didn’t start keeping track of turnovers until the 1977-78 season, so there’s no assist-to-turnover data for the first four (Robertson, Wilkens, Cousy, West) and the data for Archibald, Murphy, Maravich and Frazier is incomplete, so I could only use their post-1977 numbers.

I also compiled a list of the top non-HOF point guards who are both retired and still active: Jason Kidd, Mark Jackson, Steve Nash, Gary Payton, Rod Strickland, Maurice Cheeks, Terry Porter, Tim Hardaway, Andre Miller, Muggsy Bogues, Kevin Johnson, Derek Harper, Stephon Marbury (yes, Stephon Marbury), John Lucas, Norm Nixon, Mookie Blaylock, Sam Cassell, Avery Johnson, Baron Davis, Nick Van Exel, Allen Iverson, Chauncey Billups and Mike Bibby. All of these players have at least 5,400 career assists, which seemed to be the cutoff for players I was interested in using for this study.

Lastly, I added seven of the top current point guards who have yet to break the 5,400-assist barrier: Tony Parker, Stephen Curry, Russell Westbrook, Rajon Rondo, Derrick Rose, Deron Williams and of course, Chris Paul.

I first tackled this subject two years ago, and settled on the shot-to-assist ratio to determine whether a player is “pass-first” or “shoot-first.” The higher the number, the more of a “shoot-first” player he is. To determine whether or not a player is “turnover-prone,” I calculated each player’s assist-to-turnover ratio. The higher the number, the better the player is at taking care of the ball, relative to what he’s asked to do as a playmaker for his team. The graph takes a gentle downward slope because assists are part of both calculations. (Note: While I do like FGA/A as the criteria for shoot-first/pass-first, I am not completely sold on A/TO as the criteria for turnover-prone. Perhaps (A+FGA)/TO would show shoot-first guards in a better light? Maybe I’ll try that next year.)

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What kind of point guard is he?

The Chicago Bulls’ Derrick Rose shoots a free throw while playing the San Antonio Spurs during the fourth quarter of their NBA game in Chicago February 17, 2011. REUTERS/John Gress (UNITED STATES – Tags: SPORT BASKETBALL)

We hear it all the time. NBA analysts call one point guard “pass-first” and another “shoot-first.” Or they say one guy is “turnover-prone” while another “takes care of the ball.” But really, what makes a player a “pass-first” point guard? How carefree must he be with the ball to be considered “turnover-prone”?

I first tackled this subject two years ago, and settled on the shot-to-assist ratio to determine whether a player is “pass-first” or “shoot-first.” The higher the number, the more of a “shoot-first” player he is. To determine whether or not a player is “turnover-prone,” I calculated each player’s assist-to-turnover ratio. The higher the number, the better the player is at taking care of the ball.

I narrowed the list of players to 33, one for each team plus a few extra for teams like Cleveland, Sacramento and Denver, who have a couple of players manning the position. I also added eight prospects (indicated in green) just to see where a few of the younger guys land. Here’s the graph — it’s small, but if you click it, you’ll get to a bigger version:

So the pass-first/shoot-first aspect goes left to right, and the turnover-prone players will be towards the bottom, while the guys that take really good care of the ball will be up top. Players indicated with a blue diamond are in the Top 10 in this group in Efficiency Per Minute. I set the axis for each category at the average of the 33 players in question, so 1.97 for FGA-to-assist and 2.70 assist-to-turnover.

Two years ago when I conducted this study, seven of the top 10 EPM performers were in the top left quadrant (pass-first, takes care of the ball). This year, only five of the top 11 (I included both Rondo and Calderon, since they tied for #11) are in that quadrant. This is due to the emergence of three shoot-first, (fairly) turnover-prone guards who are emerging as stars: Derrick Rose, Russell Westbrook and Stephen Curry.

A few takeaways:

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Forget the triple-double. The triple-dozen is where it’s at.

Since the 1986-87 season (which is the cutoff since that is as far back as Basketball Reference’s data goes), 201 different players have successfully posted a triple double, 1,042 games in all. That’s an average of 41.7 triple-doubles a season, including playoffs. It’s a nice feat, but it’s just too common of an occurrence to be amazing. (By the way, Jason Kidd leads the way with 107 triple-doubles during that span, though the first part of Magic Johnson’s career isn’t included. He had 66 during that span, but 138 overall. That’s second all-time to Oscar Robertson, who had 181 back in the day when nobody played any defense at all.)

So I submit for your approval…the triple-dozen. It’s just like a triple-double, but a player needs to record at least 12 in three of the following categories: points, rebounds, assists, blocks and/or steals.

In the last 25 years, 60 players have accomplished this feat a total of 155 times, or 6.2 times a season. Jason Kidd leads the way with 22, while Magic Johnson and Fat Lever trail (over that span) with 19 and 12 respectively. LeBron James is fourth with nine. Here’s the list of the 23 players who have posted a triple-dozen at least twice.

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Rondo’s defense on LeBron [video]

Here’s some footage of Rondo covering LeBron on Sunday’s game in Boston.

I don’t know why the Heat didn’t just throw it to LeBron in the post over and over when Rondo was on him. He has no business covering LeBron on the block, but then again, LeBron doesn’t really like to post up. It’s a shame, really.

Rajon Rondo tries to sneak a look at the Miami Heat huddle [video]

Good to see Ray Allen come over to pull him away. This is poor sportsmanship.

Celtics beat Lakers, 109-96

REFILE – CORRECTING DATE Boston Celtics forward Kevin Garnett (L) talks to Los Angeles Lakers guard Kobe Bryant in the first half during their NBA basketball game in Los Angeles, California, January 30, 2011. REUTERS/Alex Gallardo (UNITED STATES – Tags: SPORT BASKETBALL)

Box Score

The Celtics shot 60.3% from the field and 52.9% from three-point range en route to a 13-point win over the Lakers at Staples Center. It was a very poor showing by the Laker defense, which is ranked 8th in the league in defensive efficiency and 4th in opponent FG%.

Boston’s “Big Four” showed up, and in a big way. Paul Pierce (32 points), Ray Allen (21), Kevin Garnett (18) and Rajon Rondo (10) combined to shoot 33-for-51 (64.7%) from the field. They’re going to be awfully tough to beat when they are scoring this easily.

Kobe hit 16-of-29 shots for 41 points but had ZERO assists. That pretty much tells the story, doesn’t it?

Rajon Rondo’s sweet pass to Ray Allen [video]

It’s nice of Ray-Ray to make the shot after Rondo’s ridiculous pass.

Rajon Rondo with big-time dunk on Chris Bosh [video]

Paging Mr. Bosh….come in, Mr. Bosh…

The Celtics went into Miami and beat the Heat, 112-107. Ray Allen scored 35 points, hitting 7-of-9 from 3PT, while Rondo had eight points and 16 assists. LeBron James had a near triple-double (35-10-9), but Dwyane Wade stunk up the joint (2-of-12 from the field, eight points).

The C’s are now 2-0 against the Heat this season.

Celtics hold off new-look Heat, 88-80

Boston Celtics' Shaquille O'Neal (R) dunks over Miami Heat defenders, including Chris Bosh (1), during the first quarter of their NBA game in Boston, Massachusetts, October 26, 2010. REUTERS/Brian Snyder (UNITED STATES - Tags: SPORT BASKETBALL)

It was an ugly first half that included a nine-point first quarter from Miami’s new Super Friends, but LeBron James (31-4-3, 8 turnovers) got it going in the second half and led the way as the Heat cut Boston’s 19-point lead down to three. But Rajon Rondo (17 assists) Paul Pierce (19-9-3), Ray Allen (20 points, 5-8 3PT) and Glen Davis (13-5) were too much in the end, and the Celtics prevailed, 88-80.

I actually think the Heat will come away feeling pretty good about the game, given the performance of Dwyane Wade (4-of-16, 13 points) and Chris Bosh (3-of-11, 8 points). Wade didn’t play much at all in the preseason and was obviously shaking off the rust as the game wore on. And let’s not forget that the Heat were without their fourth (or fifth) best player, Mike Miller, who injured his hand and will be out for a while. They also need to figure out how to chase Allen on those off-ball screens. Both Wade and House tried to go over the top when they should just chase, chase and chase some more.

For the Celtics, Shaq (9-7) started the game, but Davis finished it. The best line I saw on Twitter came from @ShotDrJr: “When Big Baby comes in for Shaq, it’s as if the Celtics have opened a nesting doll.” Classic.

Heat fans obviously shouldn’t panic. It was an important game, but the chips were stacked against Miami. Wade was rusty and the Heat haven’t had a chance to work out the offensive kinks, and going up against the league’s best defensive team is not the way to do it. The fact that they scored just nine points in the first quarter and still only lost by eight is actually encouraging.

The Finals, Game 7: With a little help from his friends…

Kobe Bryant played a miserable offensive game, going just 6-of-24 from the field, 0-for-6 from long range and turning the ball over four times. But the rest of the Lakers stepped up. Whether it was Pau Gasol’s travel layup with 1:30 to play, Ron Artest’s timely three-pointer with 1:00 remaining or Sasha Vujacic’s clutch free throws to seal the game with 0:11 to play, Kobe’s supporting cast came through when they needed to.

Lakers win, 83-79.

Kobe finished with 23-15-2, which looks pretty good until you realize that he missed 18 shots and forced some terrible attempts. Gasol added a gritty 19-18, and had nine of the Lakers’ TWENTY-THREE offensive rebounds. (The L.A. absolutely pounded the C’s on the glass, which was one area where Boston desperately missed Kendrick Perkins.) Artest had 20-5 and five steals. He wasn’t terribly efficient offensively, but he hit some important shots and bothered Paul Pierce into 5-of-15 shooting. Artest no longer has to live with the specter of Trevor Ariza circling his entire existence in Los Angeles. In his own weird way, he has truly become a Laker.

For the Celtics, Kevin Garnet (17-3, four blocks) played well offensively (8-of-13), but he just didn’t get it done on the defensive glass. Rajon Rondo (14-8-10) had a very nice game, but wasn’t able to push the ball enough to take it over. Paul Pierce (18-10-2) and Ray Allen (13-2-2) combined to go a dreadful 8-of-29 from the field.

It wasn’t a cleanly played Game 7, but it was tight the whole way and it was one of the best defensive Finals games I’ve ever seen. To put this in perspective, the Lakers shot 32.5% from the field and still won the game…and the title.


Photo from fOTOGLIF

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