It didn’t look like it was going to happen, but the Boston Celtics have struck a deal to keep their talented point guard in the green and white for another five years.
Facing a Monday deadline, the Boston Celtics and Rajon Rondo have reached an agreement in principle on a contract extension, his agent confirmed to ESPN The Magazine’s Ric Bucher.
The deal is for five years and will be worth at least $55 million, a source confirmed to Bucher.
Rondo and the team agreed to the deal late Sunday night, thanks in large part to what the 23-year-old point guard has demonstrated since training camp began.
General manager Danny Ainge and owner Wyc Grousbeck balked at giving Rondo the kind of deal he wanted because of concern about his leadership skills and integration in the team fabric when negotiations began.
“They were candid and we understood,” said Rondo’s agent, Bill Duffy. “It was never about on the court. They wanted him to demonstrate being more of a leader, meshing with the team, being engaged in the locker room. Those issues have been squelched. I have to give a lot of credit to Ainge and Wyc. When there is an issue and you get it resolved, it’s like a cleansing.”
Give credit to both sides for avoiding the intractability that so often prevails when a pending restricted free agent isn’t being offered what he (or his camp) believes that he’s worth. Back in June, I pegged Rondo’s value at $9.0-$10.0 million per season, and it looks like he was able to get a contract worth $11 million per year. I devalued Rondo somewhat due to his reputation, but now that the Celtics believe that it’s a non-issue, it makes sense that they’d feel he’s worth a bit more.
He still struggles with his shot, but he’s savvy around the rim, and is a great defender, rebounder and playmaker. He nearly averaged a triple-double in the playoffs when the Celtics were without Kevin Garnett.
I wouldn’t call this a great signing by the franchise as I think Rondo’s inability to shoot limits his upside somewhat, but it looks like the two sides struck a pretty fair deal given everything else that he brings to the table.
While there has been talk around the NBA from several scouts that the Celtics have been shopping guard Rajon Rondo, he isn’t expected to be dealt. While unlikely, one Eastern Conference executive said the latest trade rumor included Rondo and forward Brian Scalabrine going to Memphis for guard Mike Conley and swingman Rudy Gay. On the flip side, one NBA GM said that he asked Celtics president Danny Ainge about Rondo and Ainge said he didn’t want to trade him.
I’m more persuaded by what several league sources told me about Doc Rivers’ relationship with Rondo. They say Rivers has told them Rondo is “impossible to coach” and “stubborn.” The worry is that if the Celtics give him a big contract extension next year, he’ll be even more unmanageable in the future. So the Celtics are trying to trade him now, while his trade value is high, to avoid a very difficult decision a year from now.
While it’s true that his stock has never been higher, the proof is in the pudding. If the Celtics can keep their core — Garnett, Pierce, Ray Ray and Rondo — healthy for the playoffs, they have a great shot at winning another title. Why break that up?
Around this time last year, I tried to estimate the kind of contracts the big name players from the class of 2004 and 2005 would sign, and here’s how I fared:
All in all, I think I did a pretty good job. Of the 12 players that signed a contract last summer, I correctly predicted the range for seven and was within $1.5 million for the other five. Granted, I underestimated what the Lakers would give Vujacic, but I find him so annoying that I have a tough time objectively determining his worth. (Though it should be noted that he didn’t do anything this season to justify $5.0 million per season.)
This year, I’m going to list the top names from the class of ‘06 to try to determine what kind of extension they’ll get if their current teams choose to lock them up this summer instead of letting them hit restricted free agency in 2010. (I’ll tackle the restricted free agents of the class of ‘05 in my free agency preview, which will run on 6/29.)
Due to the economy and the unwillingness of most owners to spend, the summer of 2009 promises to be tougher for free agents than years past, so we may see a few players stubbornness get the best of them. One executive predicted a “nuclear winter” of sorts, so at the very least, it will be interesting.
So here are the top players from the class of ‘06 and my best estimate of the kind of money they’ll command. I’ll list their age, Player Efficiency Rating (PER), along with a few comparables.
Everyone loves to focus on the lottery, but there are good players to be had in the late first round as well. A while back, I put together a list of the top second round picks of the modern era, so now I’m going to focus on those players that were drafted between pick #21 and pick #30 in the first round. (Note: If a player was drafted in the second round, even if they were taken with the #29 or #30 pick overall, they are ineligible to make the list. Sorry, Gilbert.) Since there are more star-quality players available in the 20’s, I’m limiting this list to the last ten drafts (i.e. 1999 through 2008).
It is sometimes tough to rank older players with newer players, but even if a younger player holds more trade value right now, I am going to take into account each player’s entire career. For the young guys, I have to project a little bit, so keep that in mind as you read and react. I feel great about the top eight guys, but there are a few players that missed the list that are pretty interchangeable with #9 and #10.
On with the list…
10. Aaron Brooks, Rockets 26th pick in 2007
I had to decide between Brooks and Nate Robinson here and went with Brooks given his fine performance in the playoffs this season (16.8 ppg, 3.4 apg, 42% from 3PT) and how Robinson’s numbers are a little inflated playing for Mike D’Antoni. Brooks is not a natural point guard, but his sharpshooting is a good fit given Houston’s inside-out attack. He’s small, but he’s quick and is able to score at the rim when given some daylight. The Rockets feel good enough about Brooks to trade Rafer Alston away midseason, so you have to like his upside.
9. Kendrick Perkins, Celtics 27th pick in 2003 (drafted by the Grizzlies)
In the world of “big” guys, I also considered Boris Diaw here, but it’s tough to pass on a 6′10″ 24-year-old who averaged 8.5 points, 8.1 rebounds and 2.0 blocks per game on a team loaded with vets. Without Kevin Garnett in the playoffs, the C’s needed Perkins to step up his game and he responded with 11.9 points, 11.6 boards and 2.6 blocks per contest. He also did a pretty good job on Dwight Howard, who had his worst numbers of the playoffs against the Celtics.
8. David Lee, Knicks 30th pick in 2005
Isiah Thomas couldn’t make a good trade to save his life, but he could spot talent in the draft. Lee has turned out to be a steal with the last pick in the 2005 draft. He’s an athletic lefty whose best traits are his hustle and smarts. In just his fourth season, Lee averaged 16.0 points and 11.7 rebounds per game, which made him one of the most consistent double-double guys in the league. His stock is so high right now that the Knicks might be able to use him as trade bait in order to land Chris Bosh or Amare Stoudemire. Maybe they’d be better off sticking with Lee…
Off the record, we have several sources telling us that Ray Allen is, indeed, on the block. It’s easy to make the leap, as the Celtics have managed to develop some nice young talent around their Big Three while also managing to win a championship. They might have even repeated had Kevin Garnett been healthy. It’s not a stretch to say the Celtics would part with Allen, who has an ending contract next season, if they could add another top young player to the mix.
On the record we have an added wrinkle – one that we thought to be highly unlikely until we found it reported with a quote attributed to Celtics GM Danny Ainge. It seems the Celtics are willing to package Rajon Rondo with Allen to make the right deal happen
“He’s stubborn,” Ainge told ESPN’s Jackie MacMullen. “He doesn’t always take direction well. He’s very bright and knows what he needs to do to be successful. But sometimes he doesn’t understand what the team needs to be successful.”
Doc Rivers expressed similar sentiments, which he directed at Rondo himself earlier this season.
“Do you know your teammates hate playing with you? … The point guard has to be the guy that brings energy to the team. You can’t be the guy that sucks it away. Your moodiness is affecting us. Change it.”
At the same time, Rondo has guys like Paul Pierce and Kendrick Perkins saying he’s their leader and they believe in him. And while there is a great deal to be said for patience and seeing if Rondo will improve as much next season as he did in 2008-09, there is certainly a lot of negativity coming from the decision-makers – enough to fuel trade speculation.
Wow. That’s the first I’ve heard about any problems with Rondo’s attitude.
It’s shocking to me that Danny Ainge is thinking about breaking up the core that won a championship less than a year ago. It’s not like they had the same group this season and failed to advance. They missed the Conference Finals (and probably the Finals) because Kevin Garnett missed the playoffs with a knee injury. You’d think that Ainge would be focused on getting everyone healthy enough to make another run, not thinking about trading away two of his starters.
We hear it all the time. NBA analysts call one point guard “pass-first” and another “shoot-first.” Or they say one guy is “turnover-prone” while another “takes care of the ball.” But really, what makes a player a “pass-first” point guard? How carefree must he be with the ball to be considered “turnover-prone”?
Taking an analytical approach to these questions, I decided to bust out an Excel spreadsheet and try to come up with some answers. Below you’ll see a graph that attempts to classify the top point guards in the league. But first, a little background…
I chose to categorize each player based on two stats. First, to determine if he’s “shoot-first” or “pass-first,” I calculated the shot-to-assist ratio for each player. The bigger the number, the more of a “shoot-first” mentality the player has. Second, to determine whether or not a player is “turnover-prone,” I calculated each player’s assist-to-turnover ratio. I thought about using turnovers per 48 minutes, but I like the idea of including assists so that playmakers are rewarded for the positive as well as the negative. Next, I calculated each player’s Efficiency Per Minute (EPM) to see if there is any correlation between these other statistics and the overall efficiency of the player in question.
By now you know that the Orlando Magic and Houston Rockets each managed to win Game 1 on the road, but what you may not know is how exactly they managed to pull those wins out.
Orlando rode a 30-17 second quarter to an 18-point lead at halftime, and led by as many as 28 (65-27) with nine minutes to play in the third quarter before the Celtics finally showed up to play. Boston whittled the lead down to four with two minutes to play, but a timely drive by Rafer Alston and four straight free throws by J.J. Redick helped the Magic hold on for the win.
Ray Allen and Rajon Rondo each went 2 of 12 from the field, so most of the Celtics’ scoring was left to Paul Pierce who finished with 23 points on 7 of 18 shooting. Boston simply wasn’t sharp; it might have been fatigue or maybe it was just one of those nights. Dwight Howard finished with 16 points, 22 rebounds and three blocks, and the C’s simply didn’t have an answer for him inside. Rashard Lewis, Hedo Turkoglu and Rafer Alston combined to shoot 17 of 45 (38%) from the field, so it’s not like Orlando was running on all cylinders, either.
Meanwhile, in L.A., the Rockets capitalized on the Lakers’ flat play. Yao Ming posted 28 points and 10 rebounds, while Ron Artest chipped in with 21 points and seven assists. But the key was the play of point guard Aaron Brooks, who outscored Derek Fisher (19 to eight) and came up with a pair of timely buckets in the fourth quarter. Along with Kyle Lowry, the Rockets have quickness in the backcourt that the Lakers can’t match unless they elect to play Shannon Brown and/or Jordan Farmar.
Shane Battier did a nice job defensively on Kobe Bryant, who scored 32 points but didn’t really get going until the Lakers were in scramble mode late in the game. He had seven points in the last 1:32, so without those makes, he was 12 of 29 (41%) for 25 points. Pau Gasol (14 points), Lamar Odom (9 points) and Andrew Bynum (10 points) all had relatively quiet games, which allowed the Rockets to spring the upset. In Artest, Carl Landry, Chuck Hayes and Yao Ming, the Rockets have one of the best defensive front lines in the league, so they have the personnel to slow down the Laker big men.
Watch Battier’s hands when he defends Kobe’s jumper. He essentially sticks his hand right in Kobe’s face, almost as if he’s about to poke Kobe in the eye. This can be distracting to a shooter, though I’m sure Bryant has seen it time and time again. Battier has the quickness and strength to keep Bryant out of the lane (most of the time, anyway) and the Rockets know they have a chance against the Lakers if they can turn Kobe into more of a shooter and less of a scorer.
On the heels of what many are labeling the greatest first round NBA series of all-time, there’s already been a lot of talk about how good the recently exited Chicago Bulls can be next year. And with good reason: Derrick Rose is already on his way to becoming one of the game’s best point guards, Ben Gordon (despite the fact that he plays worse defense than the 2008 Detroit Lions) is a lights-out scorer, and Joakim Noah can do it all from a defensive and rebounding perspective.
But perhaps the most intriguing player in this year’s Celtics-Bulls classis series was Tyrus Thomas. His play was a bit of a revelation in the series, as he consistently knocked down the 18-foot jump shot NBA 4s need to make, and his athleticism continues to be off the charts. He’s got the potential to be an all-star.
There is a saying in the NFL that it takes three years to truly evaluate a draft class, and to a lesser extent this is true in the NBA as well. Since Thomas and Boston’s stud PG Rajon Rondo are both from the 2006 NBA Draft class, how about we take a look at who the top 10 picks were, and who the revised top 5 should be?
2006 Draft (the actual top 10)
1. Andrea Bargnani, Toronto Raptors
2. LaMarcus Aldridge, Portland Trail Blazers
3. Adam Morrison, Charlotte Bobcats
4. Tyrus Thomas, Chicago Bulls
5. Shelden Williams, Atlanta Hawks
6. Brandon Roy, Portland Trail Blazers
7. Randy Foye, Minnesota Timberwolves
8. Rudy Gay, Memphis Grizzlies
9. Patrick O’Bryant, Golden State Warriors
10. Saer Sene, Seattle SuperSonics
2006 Draft (the should-have-been top 5)
1. Brandon Roy
2. Rudy Gay
3. Tyrus Thomas
4. Rajon Rondo
5. LaMarcus Aldridge
The ’06 class has hardly set the world on fire in its first three years, with its only redeeming value being that they’ve featured second-round gems like Utah’s Paul Millsap, Cleveland’s Daniel Gibson and Boston’s Leon Powe. But in terms of potential star power, don’t stick a fork in 2006 yet – all 5 of my revised top picks could end up as all-stars.
If the teams could do it over, who do you think they’d take?
So far, this Celtics/Bulls series has run six games; four went to overtime for a total of seven extra periods. It was the only playoff series ever to have three overtime games, and now that it’s gone to four, I’m starting to wonder if this is the best first round series in the history of the league. It’s certainly the best one that I can remember.
As a longtime Bucks fans, I found it hard at first to root for the Bulls, but I’m really starting to like this team. Joakim Noah plays with exceptional energy and passion, Kirk Hinrich does all the little things in the Chicago backcourt, John Salmons is an up-and-coming swingman, and Derrick Rose is one of the most dynamic players in the entire league.
There were so many great performances tonight. Salmons had 35 points, and broke down Paul Pierce every chance he had. Rose had 28 points, eight rebounds, seven assists and a huge block on Rajon Rondo’s go-ahead attempt in the waning seconds of the final overtime. Brad Miller bounced back from missing game-tying free throws (and nearly having his head removed from his body) in Game 5 to post 23 points, including two huge buckets — a three and a driving layup — at the end of regulation to bring the Bulls back from the dead. Noah had nine points and 15 rebounds, and had a monster steal that he turned into a three-point play (fouling Pierce out in the process) with less than a minute to go in the third overtime.
Ray Allen carried the Celtics for much of the game, finishing with 51 points on 18 for 32 shooting. Pierce and Rondo combined to shoot just 9 of 30 from the field, but Pierce made 11 free throws and Rondo dropped 19 dimes. The C’s wouldn’t have stayed in it without Glen Davis, who chipped in 23 points.
The series moves back to Boston for Game 7 on Saturday.
In case you missed it, the Bulls/Celtics series had yet another overtime game last night. The Celtics prevailed, in no small part to Brad Miller missing the first of two free throws that would have tied the game. In his defense, his lip was bloodied by Rajon Rondo as he drove to the hoop. Miller caught the ball in the middle of the court and Rondo almost took his head off. It’s pretty clear he wasn’t going for the ball. Why wasn’t this called a flagrant foul?
